Accounting for Wainwright and Round 5 of the Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft

            I had Adam Wainwright ranked as the 3^rd pitcher that should be taken in standard fantasy leagues this season (and had him as the 23^rd overall pick), but sadly he has to undergo Tommy John surgery and will be lost for the season. Rather than reset the entire draft from the point of where he was originally taken, I’ve instead moved starting pitchers up one slot earlier than they were originally chosen. It’s not perfect, but it still reflects the order I think starters should be chosen. Here’s the updated list of pitchers taken in the first 4 rounds.

Roy Halladay, PHI, 1-9

Felix Hernandez, SEA, 2-20

Tim Lincecum, SF, 2-23

Clayton Kershaw, LAD, 3-25

Zack Greinke, MIL, 3-30

Cliff Lee, PHI, 3-31

Jon Lester, BOS, 3-35

C.C. Sabathia, NYY, 4-37

Ubaldo Jimenez, COL, 4-40

Josh Johnson, FLA, 4-45

Justin Verlander, DET, 4-48

            Just looking at that group, wouldn’t you be happy with any of those guys as your fantasy staff ace? It probably makes sense to wait on pitching until the middle of the 4^th round. Now, on to the 5^th round…

5-49 = Ichiro, OF-RF, Mariners – Seattle’s offense was so historically terrible that Ichiro only scored 74 runs despite posting a .315 batting average. Despite that, this is a great spot to grab a career .331 hitter who should swipe at least 35 bases.

            Team 1 Roster = Albert Pujols, Dustin Pedroia, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Ichiro

5-50 = Adrian Beltre, 3B, Rangers – Beltre is a scary dude to draft. The only time he has ever hit over .300 in his career is when he is playing for a new contract (2004 with the Dodgers and 2010 with Boston). The one major factor this time around is instead of signing with a team with a gigantic park (Seattle), he’s going to play half of his games in one of the best hitter’s parks in the majors. You probably won’t see me make this pick on draft day, but due to the position he plays (and lack of talented 3B left on the board), grabbing Beltre here is justified (just don’t grab him by the head, he’ll punch you in the face).

            Team 2 Roster = Miguel Cabrera (I’ll explain why I haven’t adjusted the draft for him later), Tim Lincecum, Jose Reyes, Brandon Phillips, Adrian Beltre

5-51 = David Price, SP, Rays – Currently in ESPN.com live drafts, Price is being chosen around the 70^th pick. I think people are very concerned about the free agent losses the Rays are going to have to deal with, as well as the overcrowded AL East. Even if the Rays are sub par, I don’t see that having a dramatic impact on Price’s stats or development. This is a guy that posted a 2.72 ERA and 1.19 WHIP while pitching a great deal of his games against the Red Sox and Yankees (for comparison’s sake, Jon Lester posted a 3.25 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP, and he went 16 picks earlier).

            Team 3 Roster = Robinson Cano, Matt Kemp, Kevin Youkilis, Jimmy Rollins, David Price

5-52 = Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers – Exhibit A of my theory that if you don’t get one of the top middle-infielders within the first 25 picks, you might want to wait until later in the draft to address the middle infield. Weeks put up 29 homers last season, but his 184 strikeouts show he is a candidate to have a miserable season (think .230 batting average with 200 Ks).

            Team 4 Roster = Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Zimmerman, Shin Soo Choo, Josh Johnson, Rickie Weeks

5-53 = Justin Morneau, 1B, Twins – Morneau is still feeling effects from a concussion he sustained in July, but at least he is participating in Spring Training drills. This is a great spot to take a guy who put up a 1.055 OPS while healthy in 2010.

            Team 5 Roster = Hanley Ramirez, Felix Hernandez, Ian Kinsler, Jose Bautista, Justin Morneau

5-54 = Derek Jeter, SS, Yankees – Exhibit B of why you either need to take a middle infielder early or punt until the later rounds. You know runs will be there, but do you really want to use a 5^th round pick on a guy who put up a .270-10-67 line last season?

            Team 6 Roster = Evan Longoria, Ryan Howard, Zack Greinke, Justin Upton, Derek Jeter

5-55 = Jayson Werth, OF-CF-RF, Nationals – Werth is vastly overpaid in real life, but that doesn’t mean you should shun him from your fantasy team. He should form a great 1-2 punch with Ryan Zimmerman.

            Team 7 Roster = Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Hamilton, Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez, Jayson Werth 

5-56 = Cole Hamels, SP, Phillies – Pitched great during the second half of 2010 despite very poor run support. It’s pretty amazing that three Phillies starters went in this mock by the 56^th pick.

            Team 8 Roster = Joey Votto, Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Holliday, Dan Uggla, Cole Hamels

5-57 = Brian McCann, C, Braves – If you had to bet on one catcher to hit between 20 and 25 home runs and drive in 80+ runs, this is the guy.

            Team 9 Roster = Roy Halladay, Mark Teixeira, Andrew McCutchen, Ubaldo Jimenez, Brian McCann

5-58 = Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Cubs – Ramirez was on my fantasy team last year, and let me tell you he was terrible. However, a thumb injury was largely to blame for his struggles during the first half of the season. I fully expect Ramirez to bounce back to a line of around .290-27-105, with potential for more due to his impending free agency after the season. 

            Team 10 Roster = Carl Crawford, Prince Fielder, Joe Mauer, Jason Heyward, Aramis Ramirez

5-59 = Adam Dunn, 1B, White Sox – In the post-steroids era, guys that hit 40 home runs don’t grow on trees anymore the way they used to. This makes Dunn, who has hit between 38 and 46 home runs every season since 2004, a valuable commodity despite his very high strikeout rate.

            Team 11 Roster = Ryan Braun, Alex Rodriguez, Jon Lester, Buster Posey, Adam Dunn

5-60 = Carlos Santana, C, Indians – Santana was well on his way to a stellar rookie season before a devastating leg injury at Fenway park (I’d post a video link to it, but the people running Major League Baseball are stuck in 1974 and don’t see the value of letting fans view classic highlights and moments. Because you know, that might boost fan interest. Someone tell me again why Bud Selig still runs baseball?). Santana posted a remarkable .401 OBP in 46 games, with a walk to strikeout ratio of 37-29. Patience like that for a rookie is remarkable. Santana has all the tools to become the best catcher in baseball.

            Team 12 Roster = David Wright, Chase Utley, Nelson Cruz, C.C. Sabathia, Carlos Santana

            Which of these teams is off to the best start? Let me know what you think in the comments section below this article.

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Past Weekend (12/3-12/5)

10. Auburn and Oregon Punch Tickets to BCS Championship Game

            I wrote about this scenario in last weeks 10-pack, but I’m quite pleased that it is a reality. I’m predicting that Auburn will out muscle the Ducks, but if Cam Newton gets wined and dined a little too much during the Heisman tour, it could open the door for Oregon (that happened to Ohio State quarterback Troy Smith a few years back against Florida. He attended so many banquets he gained about 65 pounds.)

9. Jeter Resigns With Yankees

            Unbelievably, Jeter was able to weasel an extra $7 million out of the Yankees. This would’ve been higher, but the 5th item on this list bumped it down. It was nice to see the Yankees show their respect to Jeter. You don’t see that often in pro sports.

8. Dolphins and Browns Play One of the Ugliest Games Ever

            Due to not having NFL Sunday ticket, I was stuck with this game on CBS at 1pm. What a terrible game. I guess you can’t expect too much when the two quarterbacks are Jake Delhomme and Chad Henne, but this game didn’t even meet my very low expectations. At least there was plenty of humor to come out of this game (a field goal attempt hitting the upright, Chad Henne throwing three terrible interceptions, both teams combining to go 6-28 with 3^rd down conversations, and combining for approximately 46 punts) that it was still watchable.

7. WNBA Commissioner Resigns

            Until this was reported, I was completely unaware that there was a WNBA Commissioner.

6. Bengals Gift Wrap Victory for New Orleans

            It's been said on a few ESPN shows already, but I'll repeat it (because I'm lazy)...would any other team in the league jump offsides on 4th down when it is obvious the other team will not snap the ball?

5. Washington Nationals Sign Jayson Werth to an Insane Contract

            I’ve read plenty of stories about this signing, and I don’t know where I stand at this point. For those of you not in the know, the Washington Nationals (perennial doormats in the National League East) signed 32-year old outfielder Jayson Werth to a 7-year, $126 million contract (I guess the economy is on the way back up).

            On one hand, this contract is completely ludicrous. Paying this kind of money to a 32-year old player who only has 684 career hits is preposterous. Werth typically hit 5^th or 6^th for the Phillies, and has never had to carry a team. Now he’s being paid to do just that until he turns 39 years old. His high strikeout totals are not a good trait when projecting how a player will age. 

            On the other hand though, this signing gets people excited about the Washington Nationals at a time when their best young pitcher (Stephen Strasburg) will be out for the season and their best young prospect (Bryce Harper) is probably a year away from contributing at the major league level. Washington has plenty of money to spend, but has had difficulty convincing top free agents to sign with them. They were big players in the Mark Teixeira sweepstakes two years ago, but couldn’t compete with the Yankees. Going out and overpaying for a player of Werth’s caliber will at least show future free agents that they are willing to do what it takes to compete. It also completely screws up salary expectations for the rest of the 2010 free agent class. Carl Crawford has enough leverage now to try to get the Red Sox, Angels, or Yankees to pay him $180 million over 8 years. Any deal that infuriates every other GM in Major League Baseball deserves a pat on the back.

4. “The Walking Dead” Season Finale

            This is a bittersweet event for me. While I loved the first season of this show, I’m disappointed that we will have to wait a while for season 2.

3. Red Sox Acquire First Basemen Adrian Gonzalez From San Diego

            For a more extended analysis, check out my Saturday post on this trade. If you don’t want to check that out, then just know that Adrian Gonzalez is going to be a monster at Fenway Park.

2. Peyton Manning Continues His Brett Favre Impersonation Against Dallas

            What happens when a quarterback is on a team that has poor offensive line play, can’t run the ball, and has back-up wide receivers trying to read blitzes? The quarterback will try to force the issue, and turn the ball over at an alarming rate. We’ve seen this happen plenty of times with Brett Favre (the first half of the ‘00s with Green Bay, this year with Minnesota), and we’re seeing it this year with Peyton Manning. I mean, if Orlando Scandrick is picking off a pass and running it back for 6, then you really have issues (for those of you who haven’t seen much of the Cowboys the last few years, Scandrick is the Cowboys nickelback who constantly gets roasted by opposing wide receivers. I almost involuntarily soiled myself after he picked Manning off).

            Does Peyton Manning’s 11 interceptions in his last three games mean that he’s washed up? I say no. Indianapolis is clearly not going very far this season (whether they make the playoffs or not), but next year, if they can do anything to make their offensive line better, they will be back to the Colts we’ve all come to know and love (or hate). A stud runningback wouldn’t hurt either.  

1. Troy Polamalu and Ben Roethlisberger’s Schnozz Save Steelers

            All right, Roethlisberger’s nose had very little to do with the win, but did you see what it looked like? The next time the letter “C” is featured on “Sesame Street”, they could use a picture of Roethlisberger’s nose as an example.

            I’m not exactly sure what the Ravens were thinking throwing the ball on 2^nd down. After Ray Rice had gotten five yards on the first play, wouldn’t it make more sense to keep running the ball to run the clock down? Worst-case scenario is punting and pinning the Steelers back at the 20-yard line with two minutes to go (no way the Steelers were going to march 80 yards against the Ravens defense last night). Best-case scenario is Rice running for the first down in one of the next two plays. Barring a Rice fumble (which rarely happens), you avoid a costly turnover that gives Pittsburgh great field position and a chance to win the game.

            You have to tip your cap to Troy Polamalu on this play. I’m not sure exactly how fast he got to Joe Flacco, but I’ve estimated that it was probably about 0.013453 seconds. In other words, really, really fast. If Polamalu keeps flying around like that, the Steelers can go along way in the playoffs (assuming they don’t run into the Patriots. Hopefully for their sake the Jets will take care of that).