AL West Preview

4. Seattle Mariners

A-Level = RF Ichiro Suzuki, SP Felix Hernandez

B-Level = 3B Chone Figgins

C-Level = 1B Justin Smoak, SS Jack Wilson, CF Franklin Gutierrez, DH Jack Cust, SP Erik Bedard, SP Michael Pineda

Ceiling = 90 wins

Floor = 60 wins

Best Case Scenario = For Seattle to contend in the AL West, a lot of things need to happen. Chone Figgins needs to return to the form he showed during his years with the Angels. Justin Smoak needs to establish himself as a Major Leaguer after a disappointing first stint with Texas. Seattle needs at least 160 quality innings out of stud rookie Michael Pineda (at the time of this writing, it appears he’s on track for winning the 5^th starting spot). And lastly, they need 180 innings out of Erik Bedard. The odds of Bedard reaching that number are about the same as the odds of the moon crashing into the Earth, but this paragraph is titled “best case scenario”, so we can dream.

Outlook = It’s difficult to believe that all of those scenarios will occur during the same season. Look for Seattle’s offense to struggle, leaving the team with only 66 wins at season’s end.

3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

A-Level = SP Jered Weaver, SP Dan Haren

B-Level = 1B Kendrys Morales, LF Vernon Wells, RF Torii Hunter, DH Bobby Abreu, SP Ervin Santana

C-Level = 2B Howard Kendrick, CF Peter Bourjos, SP Scott Kazmir, SP Joel Piniero

Ceiling = 90 wins

Floor = 75 wins

Best Case Scenario = I’d like a 3-4-5 lineup of Wells, Hunter, and Abreu if we were going into the 2003 season. Abreu and Hunter are players in decline, and it’s unclear whether Wells will be out to prove detractors of him wrong, or if he’s content to be living in a warm climate. The bullpen is also a major concern. To call Fernando Rodney scary doesn’t begin to do a typical 9^th inning by him justice.

Outlook = The bullpen is a major eye sore. I’ll predict a record of 82-80. While I’m here, I’ll also predict a vigorous pursuit of Albert Pujols next offseason.

2. Oakland Athletics

A-Level = CL Andrew Bailey

B-Level = CF Coco Crisp, SP Dallas Braden, SP Brett Anderson, SP Trevor Cahill, SP Gio Gonzalez

C-Level = C Kurt Suzuki, 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, LF David Dejesus, RF Josh Willingham, DH Hideki Matsui, RP Brian Fuentes, RP Grant Balfour

Ceiling = 90 wins

Floor = 85 wins

Best Case Scenario = Oakland doesn’t have any stars, but they are blessed with a solid rotation. Brett Anderson and Gio Gonzalez have the skill set to be future leads of a pitching staff, and Cahill and Braden are reliable workhorses. Even their fifth starter, Brandon McCarthy, has looked good in spring training. Oakland also has the luxury of having plenty of arms in the bullpen. If they can find a way to manufacture runs, this can be a potential tough out in a first round playoffs series.

Outlook = I like Oakland to hang with Texas all year, but ultimately their sub-par offense will do leave them short. Look for 86-76.

1. Texas Rangers

A-Level = 2B Ian Kinsler, 3B Adrian Beltre, LF Josh Hamilton, RF Nelson Cruz, CL Neftali Feliz

B-Level = DH/UT Michael Young, SP C.J. Wilson, SP Colby Lewis

C-Level = SS Elvis Andrus, SP Tommy Hunter, SP Derek Holland

Ceiling = 95 wins

Floor = 80 wins

Best Case Scenario = One of the most enjoyable teams of the mid-90s were the Cleveland Indians. The statistics they put up in the strike shortened 1995 season were ridiculous. The team went 100-44. Albert Belle hit 50 home runs and 52 doubles in a 144 game season (he wasn’t on steroids or anything, no chance). Manny Ramirez was his second banana, smacking 31 homers and driving in 107. That Indians group also got all-star numbers from second baseman Carlos Baerga, Eddie Murray, Jim Thome, and the best base stealer at that time, Kenny Lofton. The offense was so good, Charles Nagy was able to go 16-6 with a 4.55 ERA.

            Why is anything of this relevant? Because if everything falls into place, Texas is capable of producing similar offensive firepower. Substitute Josh Hamilton for Belle, Cruz for Ramirez, Beltre for Jim Thome, and Kinsler as a mix between Lofton and Baerga, and you have the same team. Unless Texas makes a move mid-season to acquire an ace, it will be their offense that carries them.   

Outlook = I don’t expect Texas to win at a .694 clip like that Indians squad did, but I do expect them to win 89 games. That should be enough to capture the AL West.