14-157 = Gio Gonzalez, SP, Athletics – Gonzalez is only 25, and if he lowers his walk rate, has a chance to crack 200 strikeouts.
14-158 = Vernon Wells, CF, Angles – Wells came to Anaheim from Toronto in what was viewed as the worst move of the off-season. Anywhere from pick 110 on isn’t a bad spot to bet on a guy who hopefully wants to provide his new employer with some vindication.
14-159 = John Axford, RP, Brewers – Axford racked up 76 strikeouts in 58 innings, and should find himself in more save situations thanks to the new additions to the Milwaukee pitching staff. I’d much rather draft Axford in the 13th or 14th round as opposed to Marmol or Rivera in the 6th.
14-160 = Ryan Dempster, SP, Cubs – Even when the Cubs are in total disarray, Dempster always seems to finish with a sub-4.00 ERA and close to 200 strikeouts.
14-161 = John Danks, SP, White Sox – Danks is a volume pitcher. He doesn’t post a bunch of strikeouts per start, but he’s a great bet to finish the season with 210 innings.
14-162 = Craig Kimbrel, RP, Braves – Kimbrel isn’t guaranteed the closers gig in Atlanta, but thanks to his ridiculous strikeout rate (recorded over 14 strikeouts per nine innings in the minors, struck out 40 in 20.2 innings during his call-up at the end of 2010) he’s the favorite to earn the role. It’s a bit of a gamble to draft him this high as he isn’t assured of the closer’s role, but if he succeeds you’re getting a guy with a skill set that could place him in the top-5 of all closers in baseball.
14-163 = Vladimir Guerrero, RF, Orioles – He’ll be a full-time DH for Baltimore (his performance in the field for Texas in the World Series was the end of his fielding career), which should go a long way in keeping him healthy. He’s a solid late round bargain for 25+ home runs and a solid batting average.
14-164 = Brian Matusz, SP, Orioles – One can point to Matusz’s second half numbers as reason for optimism going into 2011 (2.18 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 52 Ks in 62 innings). He has the talent to survive in the AL East.
14-165 = Mike Napoli, C-1B, Rangers – It’s unclear at this point how Napoli will get his at-bats, but I’m willing to bet he’ll finish with at least 400 by seasons end. That should be enough to give you 20 home runs.
14-166 = Ryan Franklin, RP, Cardinals – Not the sexiest guy to draft on your team, but he’ll get you close to 30 saves.
14-167 = Carlos Lee, 1B-LF, Astros – Lee had his worst season in the Majors last year. While there is the possibility of a bounce-back, Lee is best suited to be picked as one of your bench players that can fill in at first base and the outfield.
14-168 = Drew Storen, RP, Nationals – Similar to Kimbrel in the sense that he is not guaranteed the closer role at this point, but he has the best stuff of anyone in the Nationals’ bullpen.
15-169 = Aaron Hill, 2B, Blue Jays – Hill was plagued all season by a .196 BABIP, which was 30 points lower than any other player in the majors. If that normalizes (league average is around .300), it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he could post numbers close to what he put up in 2009.
15-170 = Brett Myers, SP, Astros – Myers thrived during his first year in Houston. It may be unrealistic to think he’ll throw 223 innings again, but he’s a solid pitcher to anchor the middle of your rotation.
15-171 = Jesus Montero, C, Yankees – Montero is our first player that isn’t guaranteed a spot on a major league roster to come off the board. Montero is ready to hit in the major leagues, but New York wants to develop his defense and his ability to manage a pitching staff. I’m willing to bet that Montero will be in the big leagues by June, whether he’s playing for the Yankees or not. If you miss out on one of the top catchers, take Montero and stash him on your roster until he’s called up.
15-172 = Javier Vazquez, SP-RP, Marlins – All numbers indicate that Vazquez is in severe decline (his average fastball velocity dropped 2 mph last season), but this is a good spot to see if getting out of Yankee Stadium will be all Vazquez needs to rediscover his mojo.
15-173 = David Aardsma, RP, Mariners – This pick was logged before I discovered Aardsma will be out until mid-April (aaaarrrrrrrrggggggggghhhhhhhh!!! Get it, Aardsma, AAArgh, nevermind…). There’s no guaruantee he’ll return to the closer role when he returns, but we’re getting to the point where saves are hard to find.
15-174 = C.J. Wilson, SP, Rangers – Wilson performed as well as could’ve been expected in his switch from the bullpen to a starting role in 2010. The only concern I have going forward with him is how his arm holds up after the heavy workload he carried during the season and the Rangers playoff run.
15-175 = Jordan Zimmerman, SP, Nationals – Zimmerman has bounced back nicely from Tommy John surgery in August of 2009. He has potential to deliver over a strike out per inning. Expect 160 solid innings out of him.
15-176 = Leo Nunez, RP, Marlins – Nunez record the second highest total of blown saves last season, but thanks to a lack of quality arms in the Florida bullpen, is still slated to pitch the ninth inning for the Marlins. If he were to lose his closing gig, he would lose all fantasy value.
15-177 = Edinson Volquez, SP, Reds – A great roll of the dice pick at this point in the draft, Volquez is capable of delivering over 200 strikeouts. He will also have plenty of opportunities for wins picking a for a solid Reds team. There are health concerns, but at this point in the draft there are no sure things.
15-178 = Ian Kennedy, SP, Diamondbacks – Kennedy delivered a 3.80 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in his first full season in the desert. He’s only 26, so he does have potential to improve on those stats.
15-179 = Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants – Bumgarner’s performance in the playoffs (2.18 ERA and 1.11 WHIP) will not be duplicated during a full season, but his exceptional control should keep his ERA under 4.
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