12-133 = Matt Thornton, RP, White Sox – Thornton is not guaranteed the closer role for Chicago, but appears to be the frontrunner at this point. If he wins the job and puts up a similar ERA and WHIP as he has the past three seasons, you are looking at a potential top-10 closer.
12-134 = Angel Pagan, LF-CF-RF, Mets – Pagan had a breakout season for the Mets in 2010, posting a .290 season and swiping 37 bases. Pagan isn’t just a popless base-stealer either, as he also added 11 home runs. With New York announcing that Carlos Beltran is moving to right field, the Mets appear committed to giving Pagan regular at-bats.
12-135 = Tim Hudson, SP, Braves – Hudson isn’t going to pile up strikeouts, but at this point in the draft, this is a good point to grab a guy you know will give you 210 quality innings.
12-136 = Neil Walker, 2B-3B, Pirates – Don’t expect him to repeat the .296 batting average he put up with the Pirates last season (he never hit higher than .279 at any minor league level), but Walker has a shot to hit 15-20 homers. That’s not bad for a player who is eligible at two of the weakest positions in fantasy.
12-137 = Miguel Montero, C, Diamondbacks – Montero was a fantasy sleeper going into 2010 before a meniscus tear put him on the shelf for two months. He is fully healthy entering 2011, and is one of the few catchers with potential to hit 20 home runs.
12-138 = Jonathan Sanchez, SP, Giants – You need to proceed with caution when drafting Sanchez. He was able to finish the year with over 200 strikeouts and a 3.07 ERA, but some of his peripherals suggest he was very lucky. Sanchez BABIP (batting average on balls in play by opposing hitters) was .262, which was well below the league average. Sanchez also walked 4.47 hitters per nine innings, which was a similar rate to the previous two seasons (seasons which he posted a 1.45 and 1.37 WHIP). The strikeout potential will always be there, but don’t be surprised if he implodes with an ERA over 5.00.
12-139 = Carlos Beltran, CF, Mets – Beltran has lost a great deal of base stealing ability after micro-fracture surgery last January, but his .295 batting average the last 40 games of 2010 suggest that he can return to being a player capable of putting up 25 or 30 home runs. In retrospect, there is no reason Beltran should’ve been taken later than Grady Sizemore.
12-140 = Jose Valverde, RP, Tigers – Valverde was a beast during the first half of 2010 before an elbow injury ruined his second half. Valverde has looked solid so far in spring training, and should be in line for a 30 save season.
12-141 = Jeremy Hellickson, SP-RP, Rays – Remember the Neftali Feliz pick a couple of rounds earlier? In the event that Feliz is a starter, Team 4 has decided to punt the saves category and fill the relief spots with starters that have RP eligibility. Hellickson is a highly regarded rookie (some scouts have compared him to David Cone) who has all of the tools needed to be at the very least a top-50 pitcher. The only reason his price is reduced is his residence in the AL East.
12-142 = Ricky Romero, SP, Blue Jays – Romero has a solid strikeout rate, and does a fantastic job keeping the ball on the ground. If he can lower his walk rate, we could be looking at a 3.25 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP at seasons end. Like Hellickson, you’ll get him at a discount because he pitches in the AL East (currently going around the 192nd pick in ESPN drafts).
12-143 = Brad Lidge, RP, Phillies – I can’t think of any other closer during the last decade who have gone from being very good, to very bad, to good, to awful, back to very good, back to miserable, and then serviceable as much as Brad Lidge. Personally, I’ll never forget the home run he gave up to Albert Pujols in the 2005 Playoffs (gravity didn’t apply to that ball. I think it’s still orbiting the Earth). Despite his wild swings, he’s worthy of a pick because Philadelphia is committed to him as their closer. If he pitches well, he’ll have the opportunity to slam the door many times for the “Phantastic Four”.
12-144 = Mike Aviles, 2B-SS, Royals – Aviles has the potential to hit double digits in both home runs and steals, and also has a chance to add 3B eligibility very early in the season. He’s not a terrible option to fill your starting lineup in the middle infield, but he’s the perfect guy to have on your bench. His current asking price (he’s going 228th in ESPN leagues right now) means you’ll have plenty of chances to get him from the 12th round on.
13-145 = Hiroki Kuroda, SP, Dodgers – Kuroda is a solid Japanese import (unlike the newest Toyotas) who keeps the ball on the ground. Since coming to the United States, he has never had a WHIP higher than 1.22 or an ERA over 4.00.
Team 1 Roster = Albert Pujols, Dustin Pedroia, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Ichiro, Hunter Pence, Brian Wilson, Casey McGehee, Dan Haren, Nick Markakis, Andrew Bailey, Mike Aviles, Hiroki Kuroda
13-146 = Francisco Rodriguez, RP, Mets – You get a great discount on Francisco Rodriguez due to the fact that he went bonkers after a game last season (in my book, beating up your father-in-law and getting arrested outside the team clubhouse puts you in “bonkers” territory). There will not be a better pair of cardiac closers put together on the same team in this draft than Lidge and K-Rod.
Team 2 Roster = Miguel Cabrera, Tim Lincecum, Jose Reyes, Brandon Phillips, Adrian Beltre, Jay Bruce, Roy Oswalt, Jacoby Ellsbury, Chris Young, Geovany Soto, Wandy Rodriguez, Brad Lidge, Francisco Rodriguez
13-147 = Ricky Nolasco, SP, Marlins – Nolasco is a solid source of Ks, but is good for the occasional surrendering of 9 earned runs in 3 innings sort of outing.
Team 3 Roster = Robinson Cano, Matt Kemp, Kevin Youkilis, Jimmy Rollins, David Price, Billy Butler, Shane Victorino, Shaun Marcum, J.J. Putz, Grady Sizemore, Mark Reynolds, Ricky Romero, Ricky Nolasco
13-148 = Jose Tabata, LF-CF, Pirates – After years of being buried in the Yankees minor league system, Tabata finally got a chance to play in the majors with Pittsburgh. Tabata stole 19 bases in 102 games and also added a .299 batting average. At only 22 years old, Tabata could deliver 90+ runs and at least 40 stolen bases.
Team 4 Roster = Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Zimmerman, Shin Soo Choo, Josh Johnson, Rickie Weeks, Kendry Morales, Yovani Gallardo, Colby Rasmus, Max Scherzer, Neftali Feliz, Aubrey Huff, Jeremy Hellickson, Jose Tabata
13-149 = Gordon Beckham, 2B, White Sox – I drafted Beckham in the 13th round last season on my fantasy team. I didn’t expect Babe Ruth-esque numbers, but I was expecting a batting average around 20 home runs and hopefully a .280 batting average. Let’s just say, he fell short of those expectations. His batting average during the first half of the season was approximately .008 (okay, it wasn’t that bad, but it was less than .200). Beckham did hit .320 during his last 57 games, so he presents a solid buy-low opportunity at second base. For this team in particular, he provides quality insurance for Ian Kinsler, who is always good for a stint or two on the disabled list.
Team 5 Roster = Hanley Ramirez, Felix Hernandez, Ian Kinsler, Jose Bautista, Justin Morneau, Jered Weaver, Mike Stanton, Jonathan Papelbon, Brett Gardner, Brett Anderson, Bobby Abreu, Jose Valverde, Gordon Beckham
13-150 = Colby Lewis, SP, Rangers – Lewis is the rare Japanese import who actually is an American. Lewis was so terrible in the majors from 2002 through 2007, and ended up pitching in the Japanese leagues. While there, he developed a new cutter (no word if he was taught by a Mr. Miyagi like mentor) and modified his delivery. Taking not of his success in Japan, the Texas Rangers (the team that originally drafted him in the 1st round of the 1999 draft) resigned him. Against all odds, Lewis thrived in his first year back in the majors. He recorded nearly a strikeout per inning, and kept his WHIP down to 1.19. Some might think this is a fluke, but I’m willing to invest in a starter for one of the best teams in the American League.
Team 6 Roster = Evan Longoria, Ryan Howard, Zack Greinke, Justin Upton, Derek Jeter, Joakim Soria, Alex Rios, Brian Roberts, Clay Buchholz, Matt Wieters, Trevor Cahill, Carlos Beltran, Colby Lewis
13-151 = Joe Nathan, RP, Twins – Nathan might not be ready to go during the first month, but he is worth the investment at this point in the draft. Five out of his six years in the majors he has kept a WHIP under 1.00, and has never had an ERA over 2.10.
Team 7 Roster = Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Hamilton, Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez, Jayson Werth, Andre Ethier, Matt Cain, Pablo Sandoval, Rafael Furcal, Chone Figgins, David Ortiz, Jonathan Sanchez, Joe Nathan
13-152 = Rajai Davis, LF-CF-RF, Blue Jays – Even if Davis is buried in the 9th spot in the Blue Jays lineup, he’ll still be a good bet to rack up 50 stolen bases. You’ll get a bonus if he hits leadoff and keeps his average near .300.
Team 8 Roster = Joey Votto, Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Holliday, Dan Uggla, Cole Hamels, Tommy Hanson, Pedro Alvarez, Heath Bell, Corey Hart, Ian Desmond, Ted Lilly, Miguel Montero, Rajai Davis
13-153 = Daniel Hudson, SP, Diamondbacks – Hudson was excellent with Arizona after getting traded from the White Sox. Don’t expect him to duplicate his 2010 numbers, but you’ll be happy with a 3.75 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP.
Team 9 Roster = Roy Halladay, Mark Teixeira, Andrew McCutchen, Ubaldo Jimenez, Brian McCann, Mariano Rivera, Delmon Young, Stephen Drew, Kelly Johnson, Michael Young, Juan Pierre, Neil Walker, Daniel Hudson
13-154 = Torii Hunter, CF-RF, Angels – Hunter should still be good for over 20 home runs, but at 35 years old his skill set is beginning to decline. If he gets off to a hot start, trade him as soon as you can.
Team 10 Roster = Carl Crawford, Prince Fielder, Joe Mauer, Jason Heyward, Aramis Ramirez, Alexei Ramirez, Martin Prado, Drew Stubbs, Francisco Liriano, Jonathan Broxton, Josh Beckett, Tim Hudson, Torii Hunter
13-155 = Chris Perez, RP, Indians – It won’t be the prettiest 30 saves, but it will be 30 saves that Chris Perez will give you by season’s end.
Team 11 Roster = Ryan Braun, Alex Rodriguez, Jon Lester, Buster Posey, Adam Dunn, Mat Latos, B.J. Upton, Ben Zobrist, Elvis Andrus, Chad Billingsley, Huston Street, Angel Pagan, Chris Perez
13-156 = Adam Lind, 1B-LF, Blue Jays – He’s probably not going to have a year like he had in 2009 (.305-35-114), but he’s going to do better than last season (.237-23-72). Look for a line somewhere around .270-30-95.
Team 12 Roster = David Wright, Chase Utley, Nelson Cruz, C.C. Sabathia, Carlos Santana, Carlos Marmol, Paul Konerko, Chris Carpenter, Brandon Morrow, Michael Bourn, Starlin Castro, Matt Thornton, Adam Lind
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