AL East Preview

5. Baltimore Orioles

A-Level = None

B-Level = 2B Brian Roberts, RF Nick Markakis, DH Vladimir Guerrero, SP Brian Matusz

C-Level = C Matt Wieters, 1B Derek Lee, 3B Mark Reynolds, SS J.J. Hardy, LF Luke Scott, CF Adam Jones, SP Jeremy Guthrie, SP Justin Duchscherer, CL Kevin Gregg

Ceiling = 70 wins

Floor = 50 wins

Best Case Scenario = The best-case scenario for Baltimore would be league realignment that would get them out of the AL East. Since that won’t happen this year, they are going to need Matt Wieters to finally realize his potential, Brian Matusz carries his second half of 2010 into this year, and that Adam Jones learns that you don’t need to swing at every pitch (it might be hard to instill that now that Vlad is on the team). If they can just continue to develop and get better as the year goes on, that will be a win for this team.

Outlook = There are nice parts here, but Baltimore is still a few seasons away from having a chance at contending. 61-101 will be the record.

4. Toronto Blue Jays

A-Level = 3B Jose Bautista

B-Level = 2B Aaron Hill, SP Ricky Romero, SP Brandon Morrow

C-Level = 1B Adam Lind, SS Yunel Escobar, LF Travis Snider, CF Rajai Davis, DH Edwin Encarnacion, SP Brett Cecil, SP Kyle Drabek, CL Frank Francisco, RP Octavio Dotel, RP Jon Rauch

Ceiling = 90 wins

Floor = 70 wins

Best Case Scenario = Similar to the Royals, Toronto is also blessed with a solid minor league system. As odd it this may sound, it would be in Toronto’s best interest to not contend this season. This would enable them to move some major league talent for assets that could help them in a couple of years.

Outlook = It’s a shame this team isn’t in the AL West or NL Central. Toronto would have a good chance of winning either of those divisions. Look for them to finish the year 83-79.

3. Tampa Bay Rays

A-Level = 3B Evan Longoria, SP David Price

B-Level = CF B.J. Upton, RF Ben Zobrist. SP James Shields,

C-Level = LF Johnny Damon, DH Manny Ramirez, SP Wade Davis, SP Jeremy Hellickson

Ceiling = 90 wins

Floor = 80 wins

Best Case Scenario = B.J. Upton and Ben Zobrist need to have batting averages above .260. James Shields needs to have better luck. Manny Ramirez or Johnny Damon need to party like it’s 2004. After other clubs gutted their bullpen during the offseason, the Rays will need a few no-name arms to emerge hold leads from the 7th inning on.

Outlook = The Rays’ offense will be more productive this season, but they do not have enough arms in the bullpen to hang with the Yankees and Red Sox. I’ll give them a record of 85-77.

   

2. New York Yankees

A-Level = 1B Mark Teixeira, 2B Robinson Cano, 3B Alex Rodriguez, SP C.C. Sabathia, CL Mariano Rivera

B-Level = SS Derek Jeter, LF Brett Gardner, CF Curtis Granderson, RF Nick Swisher, SP Phil Hughes, RP Rafael Soriano

C-Level = C Jorge Posada, SP A.J. Burnett

Ceiling = 100 wins

Floor = 85 wins

Best Case Scenario = A.J. Burnett needs to establish some semblance of consistency to stabilize the Yankees rotation. Other than Sabathia, there isn’t another arm capable of eating innings (especially with Andy Pettite’s retirement). Asking the bullpen to take care of three or four innings 80% of the time is a lot to ask. Of all the star power on this team, the Yankees playoff hopes hinge heavily on the right arm of Burnett.

Outlook = New York has a roster that would be the best in any other division. However, due to the tough division slate and lack of starting pitching, look for the Yankees being forced to fight until the final day of the season for a wildcard spot. I’ll predict a record of 90-72.

1. Boston Red Sox

A-Level = 1B Adrian Gonzalez, 2B Dustin Pedroia, 3B Kevin Youkilis, LF Carl Crawford, SP Jon Lester, CL Jonathan Papelbon

B-Level = CF Jacoby Ellsbury, DH David Ortiz, SP John Lackey, SP Clay Buchholz, SP Josh Beckett

C-Level = SS Marco Scutaro, RF J.D. Drew, SP Daisuke Matsuzaka, RP Daniel Bard

Ceiling = 110 wins

Floor = 90 wins

Best Case Scenario = Boston’s rotation isn’t a rock solid unit either, but unlike New York, the odds of a starter or two emerging are greater. John Lackey pitched well in the second half of 2010, and if he can keep his ERA just under 4.00, should have a shot at winning 18 games. If Buchholz repeats his 2010 performance, he’ll be a solid #2 behind Jon Lester. Boston needs to hope that Josh Beckett’s back holds up for a full season. If they get anything out of Dice-K, that’s gravy.

             The Red Sox offense looks like it was constructed in a video game. Terry Francona will have the luxury of having tons of flexibility with his lineup. Ellsbury and Crawford could be good for 100 steals combined. Whether they are hitting 3-4-5 or 4-5-6, Gonzalez/Youkilis/Ortiz is a murderers row in the heart of the lineup. Hell, even J.D. Drew is in a contract year, which means he might actually give a damn. Don’t be surprised if J.D. smacks 25 homers out of the 7-hole. Scoring runs will not be a problem for Boston.

Outlook = If Boston were in any other division, I’d sign off on them winning over 100 games. However, expect their divisional games to limit them to “only” 98 wins.