5. Washington Nationals
A-Level = 3B Ryan Zimmerman
B-Level = RF Jayson Werth, CL Drew Storen
C-Level = C Ivan Rodriguez, 1B Adam LaRoche, SS Ian Desmond, CF Nyjer Morgan, SP Jordan Zimmerman, RP Tyler Clippard
Ceiling = 65 Wins
Floor = 50 Wins
How They Reach the Ceiling - Stephen Strasburg being out for the year obviously puts a damper on the mood in Washington, but don’t sleep on young starter Jordan Zimmerman. Zimmerman is returning this season after losing a year to Tommy John surgery. So far he’s been lights out in spring training with a fastball that touches 95 and a nasty slider. If Zimmerman pitches to his potential, Washington will at least have one reliable starter in their rotation.
How They Fall to the Floor - If Werth fails to live up to the mammoth contract he signed, it will be another year of no support for Ryan Zimmerman. Zimmerman is a very good hitter whose value has never been fully appreciated, but he desperately needs a wingman.
Floor or Ceiling? – Washington has some young pieces, and a very bright future when Strasburg returns in 2012, but look for one more 100-loss season. I’ll bank on 57-105.
4. New York Mets
A-Level = 3B David Wright, SS Jose Reyes
B-Level = LF Jason Bay, RF Carlos Beltran
C-Level = 1B Ike Davis, 2B David Murphy, CF Angel Pagan, SP Johan Santana, CL Francisco Rodriguez
Ceiling = 80 Wins
Floor = 55 Wins
How They Reach the Ceiling – Bounce-back years from Jason Bay and Carlos Beltran, coupled with a step to the next level by Ike Davis, will provide greater consistency from the offense. Jose Reyes is playing for a new contract, and should be plenty motivated during the season to earn a big payday.
How They Fall to the Floor – If you’re observant, you will have noticed that there is only one starting pitcher listed, and that pitcher (Santana) looks to be out for at least the first month of the season. Jonathon Niese and Mike Pelfrey were the only other two that were even considered to be listable (new word I just invented). Joe Blanton, who is slated to be the Phillies 5th starter, would be the ace of the Mets pitching staff right now. New York has managed to put together an awful rotation. Unless Oliver Perez suddenly discovers control (something he hasn’t done in 8 years), this is an extremely thin rotation. Even when Santana is healthy, New York will be lucky to have a favorable pitching match-up more than once a week.
Floor or Ceiling? – The Madoff scandal has severely crippled New York’s flexibility. Mets’ fans better hope they can find a new owner before Albert Pujols hits the open market. Look for 61-101.
3. Florida Marlins
A-Level = SS Hanley Ramirez, SP Josh Johnson
B-Level = RF Mike Stanton, CL Leo Nunez
C-Level = 1B Gaby Sanchez, 2B Omar Infante, LF Logan Morrison, CF Chris Coghlan, SP Javier Vazquez, SP Ricky Nolasco
Ceiling = 90 Wins
Floor = 70 Wins
How They Reach the Ceiling – Three things need to happen for the Marlins to contend in the NL East. Josh Johnson needs to stay healthy for the entire season. Mike Stanton needs to keep his batting average above .260 (if he does, we could be looking at 45 home runs). Nolasco and Vazquez need to give Florida at least 24 quality starts each.
How They Fall to the Floor – Of the three things listed for Florida to reach their peak, relying on Ricky Nolasco and Javier Vazquez is sketchiest. Nolasco has flashed tons of potential the past few seasons, but always surrounds those flashes with bouts of ineptitude. Vazquez was a disaster in New York for his second stint with the Yankees, and at his advanced age, is not guaranteed to deliver a quality season just because he is back in the NL.
Floor or Ceiling? – Buoyed by playing 18 games each against the pathetic Mets and Nationals, look for Florida to finish with a record of 85-77.
2. Atlanta Braves
A-Level = C Brian McCann, 2B Dan Uggla
B-Level = LF Martin Prado, RF Jason Heyward, SP Tommy Hanson, SP Tim Hudson
C-Level = 1B Freddie Freeman, 3B Chipper Jones, CF Nate McLouth, SP Derek Lowe, SP Jair Jurrjens, CL Craig Kimbrel
Ceiling = 95 Wins
Floor = 75 Wins
How They Reach the Ceiling – Atlanta has a lot of interesting parts on offense. Heyward is a prodigy who will begin putting up massive numbers at some point within the next three seasons. Nate McLouth struggled during the first half, but rebounded after a stint on the minors to finish the season strong. Prado is a super-utility man who is a solid table setter at the top of the order. Atlanta needs to have a dynamic offense in order to have a chance to hang with Philadelphia.
How They Fall to the Floor – The biggest worry for Braves fans should be the bullpen. Billy Wagner decided to retire after a spectacular 2010. Rookie Craig Kimbrel has the fastball to get the job done, but control will be an issue. If Kimbrel (or someone else) doesn’t thrive in the closer role, we could see a lot of blown leads for Atlanta.
Floor or Ceiling? – I’m a huge fan of Atlanta in this season. If they were in either of the other two NL divisions, I’d have them slotted to win it. I’ll predict a record of 91-71.
1. Philadelphia Phillies
A-Level = 1B Ryan Howard, 2B Chase Utley, SP Roy Halladay, SP Cliff Lee, SP Cole Hamels, SP Roy Oswalt
B-Level = SS Jimmy Rollins, CF Shane Victorino, CL Brad Lidge
C-Level = 3B Placido Polanco, LF Raul Ibanez, RP Ryan Madsen
Ceiling = 120 Wins
Floor = 95 Wins
How They Reach the Ceiling – It’s been written quite a bit, but it’s worth repeating…the starting rotation Philadelphia has put together is ridiculous. Halladay is the most reliable workhorse in all of baseball. Cliff Lee has helped get two different clubs into the World Series each of the last two seasons. Cole Hamels was the MVP of the 2008 World Series. Roy Oswalt is on the best team he has pitched for since the early ‘00s with the Astros. The scary part is these four great pitchers have a very solid offense supporting them (as opposed to San Francisco). This is the kind of rotation you put together in a video game. If all four pitchers perform to their potential, the sky is the limit.
How They Fall to the Floor – Chase Utley is a major question mark going into 2011. He had to have a cortisone shot in his right knee to help deal with tendonitis. If he’s having pain in March, how is he going to hold up through the summer?
Floor or Ceiling? – On paper, Philadelphia should have a favorable pitching match-up four out of every five games. 100 win seasons have been hard to come by as of late, but if any team can do it's this one. Look for 104-58.
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