After talking on the phone with my Dad and listen to him complain about how he can’t read my articles on fantasy baseball because fantasy sports is for losers that don’t live in the real world, I figured I’d throw the old man a bone and write about real baseball. Over the course of the next week or two, I’ll offer short assessments of the potential of every team. I’ll assess top players for each squad (grouped in three categories, A-Level, B-Level, and C-Level) as well as predict what the highest win total for each will be as well as the lowest potential win total. Lastly, I’ll offer up final season record predictions (I’m hoping for at least 10 of my final win predictions to be within 5 games, but based on my NFL prop bet experiment, I should probably pray for just 4). Without further ado, here is my preview of the National League West.
5. Arizona Diamondbacks
A-Level = RF Justin Upton
B-Level = 2B Kelly Johnson, SP Daniel Hudson, CL J.J. Putz
C-Level = C Miguel Montero, SS Stephen Drew, CF Chris Young, SP Ian Kennedy, RP Juan Gutierrez
Ceiling = 80 Wins
Floor = 60 Wins
How They Could Reach the Ceiling – Arizona cleaned out their entire coaching staff from single-A through the major league club last season. There coaches are finally encouraging hitters to be more patient at the plate, which could have a huge impact on Justin Upton. Getting rid of Mark Reynolds (aka “Whiff-Master Flex”) and Adam LaRoche were steps in the right direction. J.J. Putz provides stability at the back-end of the bullpen that has been missing in Arizona for years. If young starters Daniel Hudson and Ian Kennedy show improvement in 2011, this team could end up around .500.
How They Could Fall to the Floor – Even if Putz is solid in the 9th inning, they still need to figure out how hold a lead until that point. Middle relief is still a major issue. A brutal schedule the first quarter of the season doesn’t do them any favors either. Upton has immense talent, but isn’t at a level where he can carry the entire offense on his back.
How They Could Fall to the Floor – Even if Putz is solid in the 9th inning, they still need to figure out how hold a lead until that point. Middle relief is still a major issue. A brutal schedule the first quarter of the season doesn’t do them any favors either. Upton has immense talent, but isn’t at a level where he can carry the entire offense on his back.
Closer to Ceiling or Floor? – I would bet on them ending up 67-95, but at least there is hope in the desert. Better coaching in the minor leagues will improve the Diamondbacks by the time 2015 rolls around.
4. San Diego Padres
A-Level = SP Mat Latos, CL Heath Bell
B-Level = None
C-Level = 2B Orlando Hudson, SS Jason Bartlett, 3B Chase Headley, LF Ryan Ludwick, SP Clayton Richard, SP Aaron Harang, RP Luke Gregerson
Ceiling = 75 Wins
Floor = 65 Wins
How They Could Reach the Ceiling – The Padres need to have incredible pitching and great defense to have any shot at sniffing .500. Without Adrian Gonzalez, there is no one in their lineup that an opposing manager will fear. Latos will be solid this season, but they need both Clayton Richard and Aaron Harang (an under the radar fantasy sleeper) to have ERA’s below 4.00 to be competitive on a nightly basis. CF Cameron Maybin (who was acquired in a trade with the Marlins) realizes his potential that could be shot in the arm.
How They Fall to the Floor – This team is going to have an incredibly hard time scoring runs. If Richard and Harang are flops, their bullpen is not deep enough to keep them in every four out of five games.
Closer to Ceiling or Floor? – I’ll push and say they end up 70-92. Their giant ballpark should somewhat neutralize their opponents offense and keep them in the majority of their home games.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
A-Level = CF Matt Kemp, SP Clayton Kershaw, CL Jonathan Broxton
B-Level = RF Andre Ethier, SP Chad Billingsley, SP Ted Lilly, SP Hiroki Kuroda, RP Hong-Chih Kuo
C-Level = 1B James Loney, 2B Juan Uribe, SS Rafael Furcal, SP Jon Garland, RP Matt Guerrier
Ceiling = 95 Wins
Floor = 75 Wins
How They Could Reach the Ceiling – You could make a strong case that the Dodgers have one of the best rotations in all of baseball. All of their starters are capable of giving 6+ innings a night on a consistent basis. Strong pitching paired with a strong bounce back season from Matt Kemp could carry this team to a surprise division victory.
How They Fall to the Floor – The Dodger’s financial situation has been in flux ever since the divorce case of owners Frank and Jamie McCourt began. Among things like houses and real estate, ownership of the team is being battled for. The divorce has crippled the team’s ability to add players the past two seasons. If Los Angeles struggles out of the gate, expect the Dodgers to act quickly to shed payroll. A cloud like this can have a sobering effect on a baseball team.
Closer to Ceiling or Floor? - I’ll bet on 88 wins for Los Angeles. Their pitching will keep them competitive, but this looks like a club that could use one more bat. Unless the ownership situation is cleared up by early summer, I don’t think they will have the ability to make a move at the trade deadline.
2. San Francisco Giants
A-Level = C Buster Posey, SP Tim Lincecum, CL Brian Wilson
B-Level = 1B Aubrey Huff, 3B Pablo Sandoval, SP Matt Cain, SP Jonathan Sanchez
C-Level = SS Miguel Tejada, CF Andres Torres, SP Madison Bumgarner
Ceiling = 95 Wins
Floor = 85 Wins
How They Could Reach the Ceiling – San Francisco’s foundation is built upon their strong starting pitching. While duplicating their amazing run in the 2010 postseason is unlikely, there is reason to believe that Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner could improve in 2011. Pablo Sandoval has come to camp 30 pounds lighter than last year, so expect numbers closer to his 2009 production than 2010. 1B prospect Brandon Belt should find his way to the big leagues by the end of June, and he has the potential to be this year’s version of Buster Posey.
How They Fall to the Floor – Other than Buster Posey (who is a stud), this is a team that relied on a career year from Aubrey Huff and huge postseason hits by Edgar Renteria and Juan Uribe. In other words, there was some luck that played into San Francisco’s success in 2010. If Sandoval doesn’t bounce back, San Francisco will have a hard time scoring runs.
Closer to Ceiling or Floor? – I’ll push and say they finish 90-72. Their pitching should be phenomenal again, and as long as they get production from two of their best three hitters down the stretch (Posey, Huff, or Sandoval), they should contend for both the division and wild card.
1. Colorado Rockies
A-Level = SS Troy Tulowitzki, LF Carlos Gonzalez, SP Ubaldo Jimenez
B-Level = SP Jorge De La Rosa, CL Huston Street
C-Level = 1B Todd Helton, CF Dexter Fowler, SP Jason Hammel, SP Jhoulys Chacin, Matt Belisle
Ceiling = 95 Wins
Floor = 85 Wins
How They Could Reach the Ceiling – Monster seasons from their three A-Level players would be a good start. Tulowitzki had a historic month of September last year, but needs to bring it for the entire year to become an MVP candidate. Gonzalez would be the biggest benefactor of a strong season from Tulowitzki, as hitting in front of him should give Carlos plenty of fastballs to hit. Jimenez was the opposite of Tulowitzki. He was the best pitcher in baseball before the all-star break, but tailed off down the stretch. Jimenez pitching like an ace for an entire year will go a long way in helping out a pitching staff that also needs production from three pitchers with upside, but still a lot to prove. A mid-season trade that could locate a player to hit 5th (maybe a deal for Cubs 3B Aramis Ramirez if Chicago struggles) would greatly enhance the Rockies’ lineup.
How They Fall to the Floor – Tulowitzki has dealt with some form of injury for the past three seasons. Any stint on the disabled list for Troy would severely cripple an offense that currently doesn’t have anyone else who could step into the cleanup role (Todd Helton isn’t what he used to be back in the early ‘00s). As I mentioned previously while assessing him for fantasy, Carlos Gonzalez is a candidate for a major regression in 2011. If Gonzalez struggles, teams will have the benefit of being able to pitch around Tulowitzki. Colorado also needs someone to step up as a second banana behind Ubaldo Jimenez in order to compete with San Francisco and Los Angeles.
Closer to Ceiling or Floor? – While the Dodgers and Giants have more valuable parts, I think Colorado has the two best hitters in the division. Look for Tulo and Gonzo to carry Colorado to 93 wins and a division title.
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