NL Central Preview

6. Pittsburgh Pirates

A-Level = CF Andrew McCutchen

B-Level = None

C-Level = 2B Neil Walker, 3B Pedro Alvarez, LF Jose Tabata, CL Joel Hanrahan, RP Evan Meek

Ceiling = 65 Wins

Floor = 50 Wins

How They Reach the Ceiling – Pittsburgh has a solid young group of offensive players that could deliver some wins. Neil Walker and Jose Tabata made valuable contributions to the club after being called up from the minors. Pedro Alvarez has prodigious power potential. He projects to be a 40 home run guy that can eventually anchor the lineup. Andrew McCutchen is the most complete player in their lineup that has the potential to hit 25 home runs and swipe 40 bases.

How They Can Fall to the Floor – Other than James McDonald, Pittsburgh’s pitching staff is devoid of any talent that has upside. Pittsburgh has some arms down in the minors, but it will be another couple of seasons before there young pitching talent meets up with the young bats that are already in the majors.

Floor or Ceiling? – Let’s put it this way…if you own a national league hitter on your fantasy team, and he is playing the Pirates, make sure you get him in your lineup. Pittsburgh’s lack of pitching will doom them to a 52-107 record.

5. Houston Astros

A-Level = None

B-Level = LF Carlos Lee, CF Michael Bourn, RF Hunter Pence, SP Wandy Rodriguez, SP Brett Myers

C-Level = 1B Brett Wallace, SP J.A. Happ, SP Bud Norris, CL Brandon Lyon, RP Wilton Lopez

Ceiling = 85 Wins

Floor = 60 Wins

How They Reach the Ceiling – Wandy Rodriguez and Brett Myers were quietly one of the best pitching duos during the second half of the 2010 season. If they can get solid production out of either J.A. Happ or Bud Norris, they will have three pitchers that can face off against the top clubs in the NL Central. For Houston’s offense to be productive, they will either need a comeback season from Carlos Lee or a breakout season from Brett Wallace.

How They Can Fall to the Floor – Not to keep this to simple, but if none of the things that can get them to their ceiling, they will be at the floor. There’s really no middle ground with this team.

Floor or Ceiling? – I like some of the pitchers, but like last year, this club will struggle to score runs. 67-95 is where I see Houston finishing.

4. Chicago Cubs

A-Level = CL Carlos Marmol

B-Level = 3B Aramis Ramirez, LF Alfonso Soriano, CF Marlon Byrd, SP Ryan Dempster, SP Matt Garza

C-Level = C Geovany Soto, 1B Carlos Pena, SS Starlin Castro, RF Tyler Colvin, SP Carlos Zambrano, RP Kerry Wood

Ceiling = 85 Wins

Floor = 65 Wins

How They Reach the Ceiling – I don’t think there is another team in baseball that needs as many guys to have bounce-back seasons. Aramis Ramirez needs to have a strong year after an injury plagued 2010. Alfonso Soriano has been mediocre the past couple of seasons. Free agent acquisition Carlos Pena had a batting average under .200 last season. Carlos Zambrano was so bad that he was moved into the bullpen for part of the season. Chicago needs at least three of these guys to have strong seasons to have a chance at getting over .500.

How They Can Fall to the Floor – If the pitching tanks, it could be a very long summer in Wrigleyville. This team gave up an awful lot for Matt Garza. While a decent pitcher, he’s never demonstrated that he can carry a rotation. Amazingly, Chicago gave up just as much (if not more) than Milwaukee gave up for Zack Greinke. Don’t underestimate the anticipation of Albert Pujols impending free agency on this team. If Chicago struggles, it will be all Pujols, all the time in Chicago sports-talk radio conversation. That topic will weigh heavily on the players who have to answer questions about Albert everyday in the clubhouse.

Floor or Ceiling? – Chicago will be better than last year, but won’t be good enough to kill the Pujols anticipation. Look for 76-86 and long-drawn out speculation about Albert Pujols that will make you long for the days of Carmelo Anthony wanting to get traded to the Knicks.   

3. St. Louis Cardinals

A-Level = 1B Albert Pujols, LF Matt Holliday, SP Chris Carpenter

B-Level = CF Colby Rasmus, SP Jaime Garcia, CL Ryan Franklin

C-Level = SS Ryan Theriot, 3B David Freese, RF Lance Berkman, SP Jake Westbrook, SP Kyle Lohse, RP Jason Motte

Ceiling = 90 Wins

Floor = 75 Wins

How They Reach the Ceiling – Pujols and Holliday are as good a 1-2 punch as there is in baseball. If Colby Rasmus can make a leap, St. Louis could score a ton of runs this season. 3B David Freese is also a wildcard. Someone on this pitching staff needs to step up and replace the absence of Adam Wainwright. Jaime Garcia seems to be the most likely candidate.

How They Fall to the Floor – If there is no one that fills Wainwright’s shoes, pitching will be a major issue. This team has thrived with Carpenter and Wainwright logging at least seven innings a start. With just one ace, this bullpen could get burnt out early in the season. I don’t think Pujols contract situation will impact this veteran group much, but that will be the elephant in the room with this team all year long.

Ceiling or Floor? – Unless Pujols bats .400 and smashes 55 home runs, I don’t think the pitching is good enough. I’ll predict an 82-80 finish.

2. Cincinnati Reds

A-Level = 1B Joey Votto, 2B Brandon Phillips

B-Level = 3B Scott Rolen, CF Drew Stubbs, RF Jay Bruce, SP Edinson Volquez, SP Bronson Arroyo, SP Johnny Cueto, RP Aroldis Chapman

C-Level = LF Johnny Gomes, SP Homer Bailey, CL Francisco Cordero

Ceiling = 95 Wins

Floor = 80 Wins

How They Reach the Ceiling – Cincinnati doesn’t necessarily wow you with a ton of A-level talent, but they have as much depth as any team in baseball. Joey Votto is poised to reach 40+ homers for the first time in his career. Jay Bruce is also due for a major breakout. The starting staff would be greatly enhanced if Homer Bailey finally begins to live up to his potential. The Reds still have plenty of depth in their farm system, and should be able to make a trade to fill a hole before the trade deadline.

How They Fall to the Floor – A pitching staff implosion is the only thing that will keep the Reds mired around .500.

Ceiling or Floor? – Cincinnati’s offense will muscle this team very close to it’s ceiling. This could be high, but I see a 93-69 season for Cincinnati. They will be players for the division and the wildcard all year long.

1. Milwaukee Brewers

A-Level = 1B Prince Fielder, LF Ryan Braun, SP Zack Greinke

B-Level = 2B Rickie Weeks, 3B Casey McGehee, RF Corey Hart, SP Yovani Gallardo, SP Shaun Marcum, CL John Axford

C-Level = SP Randy Wolf, RP Takashi Saito

Ceiling = 100 Wins

Floor = 85 Wins

How They Reach the Ceiling – Trading for Zach Greinke and signing Shaun Marcum was two of the shrewdest moves in the off-season. Milwaukee has built the deepest rotation in the division. If Randy Wolf bounces back from a disappointing 2010, this team can push 100 wins.

How They Fall to the Floor – Similar to San Francisco, pitching is not the concern. Milwaukee’s offense is filled with a lot of guys that can hit the ball out of the park, but not a lot of guys who consistently get on base. Without a spark at the top of the lineup, this is a team that could be prone to prolonged slumps.

Ceiling or Floor? – Call me a fool, but I love the Brewers this year. Prince Fielder playing for a new contract should carry the offense. I’m predicting a 96-66 season, as well as a puncher’s chance at knocking off Philadelphia in the playoffs.