- I was on-board with the play-in games until I realized two of them involved #11 and #12 seeds. It would make perfect sense to have all of these games involve #16 seeds. You would give the stage (a small stage, but a stage nevertheless) to eight small programs, with four of them getting to go home and say they won a NCAA tournament game. Furthermore, none of the teams that would win a play-in game would have a chance to beat a #16 seed, so it wouldn’t mess up your bracket. It makes so much sense it hurts.
- I’m not going to say that Obama lost my vote in 2012 or anything, but he really bummed me out with his gutless choice of four #1 seeds making the Final Four. This guy is supposed to be a huge basketball fan, yet he predicts a scenario that has only happened once. Was he trying to swing Tea Party voters with his ultra conservative picks? You let me down Mr. President.
- I wrote about this a week or two ago, but it bears repeating. This is a year that the 53-year old secretary you work with that has never watched a minute of college basketball will probably win your office pool. Logic such as, “I won 13 straight games of beer pong at Marquette once, I’ll take them over Xavier!” or, “My oldest son was conceived at a frat house at Texas A&M, give me them over Florida State!” will rule. My fiancée picked Morehead St. over Louisville because the name “Morehead” made her giggle. And you know what? Morehead St. will probably win. It’s that kind of year.
- If you want to be guaranteed to lose your office pool, follow these rules (you want to know why? Because these are my rules, and I’m the Los Angeles Clippers of bracket contests. My only winning year was 2005 when I rode North Carolina to victory. Other than that, it’s been disaster after disaster). I always pick two #10, #11, and #12 seeds to pull an upset in the first round (or “Round of 64” according to the NCAA). These games usually feature either an over-valued BCS conference club against a quality mid-major (#5 Kansas State and #12 Utah State is an example), or two mediocre BCS conference teams (#7 UCLA vs. #10 Michigan State). My upset picks that fall in the 10-12 range are #12 Memphis, #11 Missouri, #10 Florida State, #12 Utah State, #11 Gonzaga, and #10 Michigan State.
- I’ll only pick a #13 or #14 seed to win if I feel there is a major concern with the favorite in that match-up. The only team I see a major red flag with is Connecticut, who just grinded out a Big East Tournament Championship by winning games five days in a row. Syracuse was the last team to pull off an effort like that in the Big East Tournament, winning four straight games in 2006. Even with four days off before the 1st round, Syracuse lost as a 5th seed to Texas A&M. I’m a Kemba Walker fan (even though I don’t think he has much of a future in the NBA, but that’s another column), but I’ll be shocked if they make it through the 1st weekend. I’ll take #14 Bucknell to equal the feat there basketball team accomplished in 2005 (Bucknell beat #3 seed Kansas in that tournament). Remember this and make fun of me when Walker scores 28 and Connecticut wins by 35.
- I always look for three teams seeded 10th or higher to place in the Sweet 16. I’ve never found any statistical evidence to back this theory up (or for that matter, searched for it), but it makes sense in my head. This year my three clubs are Missouri, Utah State, and Gonzaga.
- Although I didn’t practice this theory in my bracket this year, I typically try to pick one #1 seed to lose in the second round. This strategy has been burned into my brain ever since I successfully predicted UCLA upsetting #1 Cincinnati in the 2002 tournament (it’s funny that I remember that, but forgot about the rest of my awful bracket that year. I think I had 7 of the Sweet 16 teams right. It was miserable). I was tempted to pick Butler over Pittsburgh in the second round, but couldn’t quite pull the trigger.
- Follow those rules and you’ll be destined to have a great bracket once every eight years. I’ve got #1 Ohio State, #4 Texas, #1 Kansas, and #2 Florida in my Final 4, with Ohio State beating Kansas in the championship game. Expect all of those teams to lose by the end of the Elite 8.
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