Should Denver call Carmelo’s bluff?
I’m almost as sick of Carmelo Anthony trade rumors as I am of Katy Perry (is it just me, or is Katy Perry EVERYWHERE. Shouldn’t she of gone away after the “I Kissed a Girl” song, or am I way off base? Keep in mind this opinion is based off a guy who’s TV is on Sprout 10 hours a day). Thank God the trade deadline is in a week.
The Nuggets are in a tough spot. They are currently 7th in the Western Conference. On one hand, they are only 4 ½ games out of 4th place, but on the other they are only 6 games ahead of 12th. The direction they need to go depends on whether or not they think they have a realistic chance at winning the championship. If Denver thinks they can make a run in the wide-open West, they should hold on to Carmelo. Perhaps the team will be galvanized after hanging on to their superstar and get on a roll. If Denver doesn’t think they can win, they should trade Carmelo for the best package they can get. Even with a deep playoff run, it is unlikely that Carmelo stays in Denver despite his quotes recently that if he weren’t traded, he would consider signing a three year extension with Denver (most sources close to Anthony have indicated he will end up with the Knicks either via trade or during the off season). Just ask the fans of Cleveland and Toronto what it is like to let your best player walk out after the season for nothing. Denver needs to come up with some package of young players and/or draft picks to rebuild some sort of foundation post-Carmelo. With word that Anthony is going to meet face-to-face with the Nets Russian mutant-cyborg owner over the All-Star break, it looks like Denver is looking to pull the trigger on a deal within the week.
Does the potential lockout cripple any potential trades before the deadline?
More than likely, yes. By my count, there are only eight teams that have a chance to win the championship this season (Boston, Miami, Chicago, Orlando, San Antonio, the Lakers, Dallas, and Oklahoma City). Throw in the two clubs that are actively pursuing Carmelo (the Knicks and New Jersey), and that leaves you with 10 teams that are either looking to win now or add a franchise guy for the future. That leaves you 20 teams that will be looking to do nothing else than shed salary for greater cap flexibility going forward, or add draft picks.
The salary cap is the biggest hindrance to a trade. This year’s cap is a shade over $58 million (there are complicated rules where if you are over that number you have to pay a luxury tax, and sometimes you can add a player with what is called a “mid-level exception”, but we’ll keep this conversation simple and just stick to basic salary cap number). There are rumors that NBA owners will force the salary cap down to $50 million for the 2011-12 season. With uncertainty over where that cap number will be going forward, most clubs are not going to want to take on a deal unless it is an expiring contract. Normally clubs use expiring contracts as bargaining chips to acquire a top-flight player who is signed to a long term deal, but even contenders are more likely to hang on to their own expiring players so they don’t cripple themselves with long-term deals moving forward.
To make a long-story short, don’t expect mid-level teams to make a move to try to improve their standing. If we weren’t facing a potential lockout, the Houston Rockets would love to move Yao Ming’s massive expiring contract ($17 million) to add a stud player. Going into an uncertain cap situation, they are less likely to make a move to add a player who might be able to get them to the 2nd round of the playoffs.
Are the Lakers on cruise control until the playoffs, or are they really in trouble?
I would vote for cruise control. Los Angeles seems to be following the model the Boston Celtics used last season (if you recall, Boston was barely a .500 team the final few months of the 2009-10 season, but made it to the Finals anyway). Los Angeles still has the strongest front line of any club in the league, and as long as they can keep Andrew Bynum healthy (which is admittedly a tough task), their best effort would still beat the A-game of any potential western conference opponent.
If you had your choice of one superstar to build your team around, who would it be?
Anyone who wouldn’t take a guy who is currently averaging 26 points, 7 boards, 7 assists, and shoots just under 50% from the field, would be crazy. Lebron James is the answer to this question 100 times out of 100.
My team needs a big-man. Who should I call to make a trade?
Sacramento currently has the 3rd worst record in the NBA, but they have four solid bigs that could help a playoff team. Samuel Dalembert is on the books for over $13 million this season, but is a free agent after this season. At his best he would bring solid rebounding and shot-blocking ability to a team, and at his worst he at least gives you six fouls to give. Carl Landry and Jason Thompson are solid role-players who could give a team a solid 20-25 minutes a night. Neither player makes more than $3 million per year.
The home run addition would be troubled rookie DeMarcus Cousins. Cousins’ issues have been well documented, but this is still a guy who in the long run is capable of averaging a 22-12 for an entire season. Bill Simmons wrote in his annual trade value column this week that if he were an NBA GM, he would be calling the Kings everyday to see if they hit the breaking point with Cousins, and I couldn’t agree more. If Oklahoma City could steal Cousins for a bag of peanuts, they would be virtually guaranteed to win a championship within the next three seasons.
Can the Phoenix Suns please do Steve Nash a favor and trade him to a contender?
Nash is a loyal Canadian who will not ask for a trade out of Phoenix no matter how bad it gets. Phoenix would have to do the right thing and send Nash to a team that could win the title.
With the quality of point guards in the NBA right now, it is tough to find a potential destination for Nash. Boston, Chicago, San Antonio, Dallas, and Oklahoma City are set at point guard. Miami would love to add Nash, but they don’t have the finances or the trade chips to make a deal work. Los Angeles would be an interesting destination, but wouldn’t be willing to part with Andrew Bynum for a 35-year old point guard. That leaves Orlando, New York, and Atlanta as three interested teams where Nash would fit.
Atlanta could desperately use a point guard (that zombie who sort of looks like Mike Bibby…oh wait that is Mike Bibby…anyway, Bibby is washed up), and would have Josh Smith and Al Horford to cover for Steve’s inability to guard anyone, but I’d be shocked if Nash signed off on a trade to the Hawks.
New York is an interesting possibility, but they seem dead set on landing Carmelo and then adding either Chris Paul or Deron Williams in 2012.
That leaves Orlando as the only logical destination for Nash. I was disappointed that Nash wasn’t included in the December trade between these two clubs, as Nash would be a major upgrade over Jameer Nelson. Nash running the pick and roll with Dwight Howard would be devastating, and Howard would be the back line that would pick up the slack for Nash on defense. Orlando’s fleet of three-point shooters would benefit from Nash’s pinpoint passing. If this trade could happen, you could probably cancel the Eastern Conference playoffs.
What moves could the eight contenders make to improve their chances of winning the championship?
We’ll list the teams one by one in reverse order of their current winning percentages.
Orlando Magic – While the Nash trade discussed earlier would be a home run it is probably a pipe dream. In the meantime, Orlando should look to add some size to assist Dwight Howard down low. While Earl Clark (who was acquired in the trade with Phoenix) has been pretty serviceable the last week or two, Orlando could use at least one more guy to be on the floor in case Howard were to get into foul trouble. I would be calling Sacramento everyday if I were the GM of the Magic.
Oklahoma City Thunders – Similar to Orlando, the Thunder need to find a guy a guy who can rebound (that player could be Kevin Durant, who should be spending at least half of his minutes on the floor at power forward, but that’s another story).
LA Lakers – Rumors of a panic trade for Carmelo Anthony were fun, but Los Angeles should just stand pat. If they could flip a draft pick for a bench player to help at small forward that would be nice, but this team just needs to try hard and they will be fine.
Chicago Bulls – What Chicago has done without having both Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah on the floor together for almost the entire season has been amazing. Derrick Rose should win the MVP going away this season (that doesn’t mean he’s better than Lebron or anything, but where would the Bulls be without him?). With Noah due back within a week, Chicago does not need to add any depth at the frontcourt. There only real weakness is at shooting guard. Perhaps dialing up Memphis to see what it would cost to get O.J. Mayo (who has struggled this season, but would probably benefit from being on a new team). If the price were a late first round pick, I would pull the trigger. Richard Hamilton would also be an interesting option. Hamilton has been in numerous big games between his pro and college career.
Dallas Mavericks - Dallas is in an odd spot. For the first time in the Dirk-era, they have a credible low post defender in Tyson Chandler. Caron Butler was a solid secondary scoring option, but he was lost for the season with a torn ACL. They could benefit from having a scoring threat from the two or three, but it’s hard to see where they could find one. Mayo or Hamilton would be options, but Dallas would benefit more from a 3-point threat to compliment Nowitzki. A minor trade for a player like Rasual Butler from the Clippers, or Anthony Parker from the Cavaliers, would make some sense, but Dallas will more than likely enter the postseason with the team they currently have.
Miami Heat – I won’t waste much time here, because Miami simply doesn’t have the dollars to go out and add a point guard or big man. They’ll go into the playoffs with The Big 2 Featuring Chris Bosh, and not much else.
Boston Celtics – Boston doesn’t need to worry about anything other than getting their big men healthy.
San Antonio Spurs – San Antonio has done a masterful job of building a team around an aging Tim Duncan. If they could add a wing defender in the mold of Bruce Bowen, they would be tough to beat come playoff time.
If you are the Utah Jazz, and Jerry Sloan were to call you and say he wants his job back, would you take him?
I would certainly think about it. Utah has lost their last four games, and they are 0-3 without Sloan on the bench. Utah has plunged all the way into a tie for 8th in the western conference.
Coaching may be an issue, but the Jazz seems to have a flawed roster. Their best three forwards (Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, and Andrei Kirilenko) don’t mesh well on the court at the same time. Kirilenko hits free agency after this season, so his $17 million expiring contract is a great trade chip. Due do the uncertain cap situation for 2011-12 though, Utah is more likely to hang on to Kirilenko and let his salary come off of their books. This will give Utah solid flexibility to cope with whatever the salary cap looks like during the new collective bargaining agreement, which will then allow them to retool their roster.
If every playoff team were healthy going into the postseason, which club would win the championship?
If each club had perfect health for the entire playoffs, you would see a rematch between the Celtics and Lakers in the NBA Finals, with Boston winning in 6 games. Boston needs to get the O’Neals (Shaq and Jermaine) healthy to give them the bigs to compete with Los Angeles. If that happens, there will be no stopping Boston from winning their 18th title.
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