We’ve just crossed the quarter pole of the fantasy baseball season. At this point you should be starting to get a good feel for what your team needs to compete for a championship in your league. Or, if you’re in a keeper league, you might be realizing that it’s already time to start planning for 2012 and beyond.
In this column, I’ll review the 35 players that are on my keeper league team (you can review the draft review for the league here, if you’re struggling to fill a day that was never supposed to happen because the world was supposed to end yesterday). I’ve got five players on the disabled list right now, which gives me an extra five guys to rank. The exercise here is very simple. I’m going to rank 1-35 the order I would consider keeping a player for next season. This is the first season of the No Credentials Baseball keeper league. We are only allowed to keep five players after this first season, then 10 after 2012, and 15 for every year after that. The price for a keeping a player would be losing the draft pick that they were selected for the previous season (for example, I took Marlins outfielder Mike Stanton in the 8th round. If I keep him for 2012, he would cost me an 8th round pick in next years draft). The top five would be the guys I would keep if I needed to decide today.
Before I begin, I’ll give a quick overview of my team. So far, my team is off to a 44-15-1 start (I’m leading 7-2 as of right now going into the final day of week 7), which gives me a 9.5 game lead on the second place team. There’s been a little smoke in mirrors involved, as a few of the weeks I was lucky to face a team that struggled to bat .230 for a full week. Pitching has been a strength, with late round picks Michael Pineda and James Shields providing a huge boost. I also had the foresight to load up on a bunch of minor league prospects. Eric Hosmer has already arrived and made an impact at the major league level. I should have the flexibility to consider trading virtually any player on my roster (for the right price).
Without further ado, here’s how I’m currently ranking my team.
35. Brandon McCarthy, OAK, SP (30th)
34. Maicer Izturis, LAA, 2B-3B-SS (30th)
33. James McDonald, PIT, SP (30th)
All three of these guys are waiver wire plug-ins that have no chance of being kept on my team for the 2012 season.
32. Chris Perez, CLE, RP (14th)
As predicted before the season by No Credentials, Perez has been a solid source of cheap saves. He’s gotten a nice bump in the saves department thanks to Cleveland’s surprising start.
31. Ted Lilly, LAD, SP (18th)
Lilly has been pretty miserable so far this season. His strikeout rate is down (only 39 in 57 innings), and he’s looked very hittable. Other than Matt Thornton (who barely made it two weeks on my roster), Lilly has been my worst draft pick so far.
30. Pedro Alvarez, PIT, 3B (30th)
After being picked in the 12th round, Alvarez found himself on the league’s waiver wire for the past two weeks. I scooped him up with the intentions of stashing him on my bench to see if he can turn it around. The news that he hit the DL today is a bit discouraging, but a rehab assignment in the minors might not be the worst thing for him. If he does, I’ll be able to shop a 24-year old 3rd baseman that would only carry a 30th round price tag for someone who might want to keep him.
29. Kyle Farnsworth, TB, RP (30th)
It’s fitting that the Tampa Bay Rays figured out how to make Farnsworth a usable closer. It must have something to do with Joe Maddon’s glasses.
28. Tsuyoshi Nishioka, MIN, 2B-SS (24th)
It’s hard to gauge what the newest Japanese import can bring to the table after Nick Swisher broke his fibula sliding into 2nd base. He’s on track to be back in the Twins lineup within a month.
27. Brian Matusz, BAL, SP (16th)
A long DL stint has kept Matusz off of both of my team’s since the start of the season. He’s expected to make one or two more rehab starts before potentially rejoining the Baltimore rotation. If he finishes strong, it’s not out of the question that he could make a late push to be kept for next season.
26. Carlos Marmol, CHC, RP (7th)
Marmol has been awesome so far, delivering 27 strikeouts in 20 innings along with a 1.35 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. I’d have him ranked higher if I were able to keep 15 players for next season, but can’t justify using one of my five spots on a closer that was drafted in the 7th round.
25. Derek Holland, TEX, SP (26th)
Holland struggled in April, but has rebounded to post a 3.38 ERA so far in May. The only issue left for him is the lack of run support he has been receiving. Eventually, he should develop into a solid 2nd or 3rd starter.
24. Adam Lind, TOR, 1B-OF (19th)
Even despite a back injury that has landed him on the DL since May 7th, Lind is still enjoying a solid bounce back season. At age 27, he’s young enough that someone could potentially consider keeping him for the price of a 2012 19th round pick.
23. Jordan Walden, LAA, RP (30th)
I scooped Walden off of waivers after Fernando Rodney finally was stripped of closing duties for the Angels. It’s been bumpy at times, but I won’t complain about 21 strikeouts in 19 innings and seven saves coming from the waiver wire.
22. Jordan Zimmerman, WAS, SP (22nd)
Zimmerman has been decent in his first full season after returning from Tommy John surgery. He doesn’t look like he will jump to a level where I would consider keeping him, but he should be a solid option to fill out my rotation for the year. The only concern for me going forward with him is if the Nationals decide to shut him down come September to limit his innings.
21. Dustin Ackley, SEA, OF (23rd)
As written here by ESPN’s David Schoenfield, Ackley should be called up from Triple-A within a week or two. He will man 2nd Base, and has the potential to make a Dustin Pedroia like impact. If he delivers a batting average over .300 in the majors, he will be much higher on this list when I re-rank my roster in August.
20. Ryan Zimmerman, WAS, 3B (3rd)
When I first owned Zimmerman on a fantasy team back in 2008 he was hurt for half the season, so it’s fitting that by the time he returns in June he will have already missed six weeks in 2011. Hopefully he’s healthy when I need him in September (which is really, all that matters in a head to head fantasy league, assuming your team is slated to make the playoffs). He could still impress enough that either I may consider keeping him for 2012 or find another owner that would like to acquire him for the fantasy playoff run.
19. Jose Tabata, PIT, OF (15th)
Tabata was on a tear to start the year before falling into a deep funk that has dropped his average to .235 (as of today). I expect his average to settle somewhere in the .265-.270 range by seasons end. He only turns 23 this August, so he is also a trade chip that can be used.
18. Lance Berkman, STL, 1B-OF (30th)
Berkman’s performance so far this year makes you either think that A) maybe he got some “training” tips from Lance Armstrong, or B) it’s a lot easier to hit in a lineup that has Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday as opposed to a lineup that features a very overweight Carlos Lee. I picked Berkman up off of waivers about three weeks ago (which seems ridiculous, but this is a keeper league, so a 35-year old player isn’t that attractive to most owners), and have been enjoying the ride ever since. If he keeps this up all year (which I doubt he will), I’d have to seriously consider keeping him at the cost of a 30th round pick next season.
17. B.J. Upton, TB, OF (9th)
Upton has been solid this year, and has a chance to deliver both 30 homers and 30 steals. His low batting average is the reason he’s ranked so low on this list.
16. Colby Rasmus, STL, OF (12th)
Rasmus hasn’t been hitting for a ton of power, but he’s been getting on base and scoring a ton of runs out of the second spot in the Cardinals lineup. The power should show up at some point, resulting in somewhere between 20-25 dingers by season’s end.
15. Desmond Jennings, TB, OF (30th)
Jennings is a Carl Crawford clone (not the Crawford that has played for the Red Sox so far, but the one that was awesome in Tampa Bay for several years) that will be called up from Triple-A sometime during the month of June. I picked him up on waivers very early in the season, which means he’s another prospect that I could keep for a 30th round price tag.
14. Brett Anderson, OAK, SP (11th)
13. Gio Gonzalez, OAK, SP (13th)
These are two solid young pitchers that have a very pitcher-friendly home ballpark. If Oakland could ever put some semblance of an offense together, these two guys could easily put together multiple 20-win seasons.
12. Brandon Phillips, CIN 2B (5th)
Phillips is well on his way to delivering 20 homers, over 100 RBIs, and over 100 runs scored for both of my fantasy teams. If Dustin Ackley produces once he is called up to the majors, I will have the option of moving either one for starting pitching or a stud third baseman.
11. Jesus Montero, NYY, C (30th)
The only thing keeping Montero in Triple-A right now is his inability to play defense, which is an issue when you’re a catcher. New York should seriously consider bringing him up as their full-time DH. He should be in the majors sometime by August 1st, whether he is playing for the Yankees or another major league team.
10. Matt Wieters, BAL, C (10th)
Wieters has begun to show signs of reaching his potential over the past month. However, his place on this list could plummet if Jesus Montero arrives on a major league roster and performs. Even if Wieters were to do well, a productive Montero is a much more attractive option to keep for 2012 at the price of a 30th round pick.
9. Cole Hamels, PHI, SP (4th)
Other than an abysmal first start of the year, Hamels has been awesome this season. The only reason he’s this low on my list is A) I have other talented players, and B) I’m not too keen about keeping a pitcher at the price of a 4th round pick.
8. Mike Moustakas, KC, 3B (21st)
Moustakas struggled to start the year (which is the reason Eric Hosmer got called up to the Royals first), but he’s raised his batting average 25 points in the last two weeks. He’ll be joining Hosmer in Kansas City within the next month.
7. Tommy Hanson, ATL, SP (6th)
The two round discount makes Hanson a much more likely candidate to be kept than Hamels. Hanson will anchor the Braves rotation for years to come (barring injury).
6. James Shields, TB, SP (25th)
I thought Shields would be a great bargain buy going into the year, but never expected him to post 2.26 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP in the first quarter of the season. He’s forced himself into the discussion as a possible candidate to be kept for a second season.
5. Prince Fielder, MIL, 1B (2nd)
Fielder would be the clear #1 if not for a player I added on waivers that we will get to later. He’s off to a great start so far in his contract year. He should expect a big payday from whichever team misses out on the Albert Pujols sweepstakes.
4. Hanley Ramirez, FLA, SS (1st)
Even despite Ramirez’s awful start, he would half to fall off the face of the Earth in order to be left off of my 2012 roster. He’s too talented at a position where there are not a lot of quality offensive options. He’s started to heat up during the past week (.292 batting average, pair of homers and a steal), and I’m expecting him to finish with a batting average around .280 by years end.
3. Mike Stanton, FLA, OF (8th)
Stanton has been the National League version of Adrian Gonzalez so far this month, smacking 8 home runs. The scariest thing about Stanton is that he doesn’t turn 22 until November.
2. Michael Pineda, SEA, SP (20th)
Pineda looks like a cyborg that was built for the sole purpose of throwing 97 mph fastballs for strikes. Throw in his very spacious home ball park, and you have yourself a pitcher who has a chance to be a top-5 fantasy starter for the next decade. In retrospect, it was ridiculous that I was able to nab him in the 20th round.
1. Eric Hosmer, KC, 1B (30th)
I grabbed Hosmer off of waivers after reading that he had 1.100+ OPS at Triple-A. He’s delivered a .314 batting average so far in his first 51 at bats with Kansas City. This guy is the real deal. The scariest part of him being on my team is the price I’ll have to pay for him for the next four seasons after this. After the second year, there is a three-round tax for each extra season you keep a player (we are only allowed to have a player for five seasons in this league). Here’s the price I’ll have to pay for Hosmer through 2015.
2012 = 30th round pick
2013 = 27th round pick
2014 = 24th round pick
2015 = 21st round pick
In other words, good times are ahead. Hosmer’s emergence gives me tons of flexibility going forward. I have the freedom to shop Prince Fielder for a top flight starting pitcher or 3rd baseman. I could also move Hosmer for a star player that could help me for the stretch drive.
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