4. Carolina Panthers
2012 Record = 7-9, third in NFC South
2013 Schedule = Seahawks, @ Bills, Giants, BYE, @
Cardinals, @ Vikings, Rams, @ Buccaneers, Falcons, @ 49ers, Patriots, @
Dolphins, Buccaneers, @ Saints, Jets, Saints, @ Falcons
Franchise Players = QB Cam Newton, MLB Luke Kuechly
Supporting Cast = RB Johnathan Stewart, RB DeAngelo
Williams, WR Steve Smith, TE Greg Olsen, LT Jordan Gross, C Ryan Kalil, DE Greg
Hardy, DE Charles Johnson, OLB Jon Beason Notable Rookies = DT Star Lotulelei (Utah, 1-14), DT Kawann Short (Purdue, 2-44), RB Kenjon Barner (Oregon, 6-182)
Offensive Outlook = Carolina brings back virtually the same offense it has had for the past two seasons. Cam Newton started out slow last season, but caught fire in the second half to post numbers similar to his rookie season. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are arguably the most talented running back duo in the league, but often were forgotten assets. Getting these guys a combined 30 carries a game would go a long way in balancing the offense. Steve Smith is still the only credible wide receiver Carolina has to offer (where oh where is Muhsin Muhammad?), but at least the Panthers have a solid tight end. Greg Olsen had the most productive year a tight end has ever had for the Panthers (somehow Wesley Walls never cracked 1,000 yards back in the day), and is a steady receiver for Newton to target on third down. Carolina’s offensive line was ravaged by injury last season, with the loss of Ryan Kalil hurting the most.
Defensive Outlook = Carolina made great strides defensively last season, and the catalyst was Luke Kuechly. Kuechly looks like a player that can be a top-5 middle linebacker for the better part of the next decade. Jon Beason is capable of playing at a Pro Bowl level, but has only suited up for five games in the last 32 games. Even 10 games out of him will be a lift for the defense. Defensive ends Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy were a menace for opposing tackles, Carolina used their first two draft picks on defensive tackles, with first round pick Star Lotulelei having the chance to be the game changing defensive tackle the Panthers have never had. The secondary is a major concern, as it appears that it’s an open competition to see who starts at corner and both safety spots.
Ceiling = 10-6 – They did win five of their
last six last season, so double digit wins isn’t impossible.
Floor = 2-14 – Poor offensive line play combined with
awful secondary play could be the perfect storm for an awful season.Prediction = 7-9
It’s boring to predict the same win total as last year, but there wasn’t enough roster improvement to suggest a serious increase in victories will occur. Carolina won’t take off until they finally can Head Coach Ron Rivera.
3. New Orleans Saints
2012 Record = 7-9, second in NFC South
2013 Schedule = Falcons, @ Buccaneers, Cardinals,
Dolphins, @ Bears, @ Patriots, BYE, Bills, @ Jets, Cowboys, 49ers, @ Falcons, @
Seahawks, Panthers, @ Rams, @ Panthers, Buccaneers
Franchise Players = QB Drew Brees, WR Marques
Colston, TE Jimmy Graham, RG Jahri Evans
Supporting Cast = RB Mark Ingram, RB Darren Sproles,
WR Lance Moore, LG Ben Grubbs, C Brian de la Puente, DE Cameron Jordan, MLB Curtis Lofton, P Thomas Morstead
Notable Rookies = FS Kenny Vaccaro (Texas, 1-15), DT Johnathan Jenkins (Georgia, 3-82)
Offensive Outlook = The only reason the Saints won seven games last year was because of the raw talent they have on offense. Drew Brees wasn’t as accurate as he was in previous years, but that had more to do with the Saints playing from behind more often than usual. He’s still a top-5 quarterback in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. It’s likely that this is the last year Mark Ingram gets a chance to demonstrate he can be a feature back. Pierre Thomas is still lurking, but at least Chris Ivory has been shipped to New York. Darren Sproles will handle the receiving chores out of the backfield, and will have a chance at catching 100 passes this year. Jimmy Graham is the #1 receiving threat, and is the most dynamic tight end in the NFC. Marques Colston isn’t explosive, but there aren’t many other wide receivers more reliable on third down. Lance Moore generated 1,000+ yards for the first time in his career thanks to an unusual spike in his average yards per catch. New Orleans will need a deep threat to emerge. Nick Toon, Joe Morgan (not the senile Hall of Fame second baseman), or rookie Kenny Stills are the candidates to fill that role.
Defensive Outlook = Only three times did the Saints allow less than 20
points last season. Seven times, 30+ points were dropped on them. Rob Ryan has
been hired, and is switching the Saints from a 4-3 to a 3-4 base defense.
Cameron Jordan might be the player most impacted by this switch, as he’ll have
a hard time getting to the quarterback working as a 3-4 defensive end. The
linebacking core is the strength of the defense, with Victor Butler a potential
impact player as a pass rushing outside linebacker but they will have to do without Victor Butler, who's knee exploded during training camp. New Orleans’ secondary was
miserable, and things don’t look that much better this year. Kenny Vaccaro does
have a chance to make an impact as a versatile, do-it-all safety.
Ceiling = 11-5 – Is a head coach worth four wins? We’ll find out this year when Sean Payton returns.
Floor = 5-11 – The defense still sucks. A lot.
Prediction = 8-8
If Sean Payton was a returning shutdown cornerback, I might pencil New Orleans in for a division title. The defense isn’t good enough for New Orleans to make a serious Super Bowl run.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2012 Record = 7-9, fourth in NFC South
2013 Schedule = @ Jets, Saints, @ Patriots,
Cardinals, BYE, Eagles, @ Falcons, Panthers, @ Seahawks, Dolphins, Falcons, @
Lions, @ Panthers, Bills, 49ers, @ Rams, @ Saints
Franchise Players = RB Doug Martin, WR Vincent
Jackson, DT Gerald McCoy, CB Darrelle Revis
Supporting Cast = QB Josh Freeman, WR Mike Williams,
LT Donald Penn, LG Carl Nicks, RG Davin Joseph, MLB Mason Foster, OLB Lavonte
David, FS Dashon Goldson, SS Mark BarronNotable Rookies = CB Johnthan Banks (Mississippi St., 2-43), QB Mike Glennon (N.C. State, 3-73)
Offensive Outlook = Tampa Bay was in the thick of the
NFC playoff race before Josh Freeman drove the Buccaneers off a cliff. The Bucs
lost five of their last six games (their only win in that stretch was in the
season finale against the Falcons, who had already clinched home-field
advantage throughout the playoffs), and Freeman’s inaccuracy had a lot to do
with it. He put up a 6-10 touchdown to interception ratio in the final six
games (as opposed to 21-7 in the first ten), and only completed 54.8% of his
passes for the season. A return to his 2010 form is vital if Tampa Bay wants to
return to the playoffs. Doug Martin demonstrated in his rookie year that he is
more than able to shoulder a full-time workload. Tampa’s inability to
consistently throw the football was the only reason for Martin’s dive in late
season productivity. Vincent Jackson was the rare free agent signing that paid
immediate dividends, as set career highs for receptions and receiving yards.
His presence on the field also opened up space for Mike Williams to operate.
The greatest unknown about the Buccaneers is how they will perform if their
starting guards stay healthy. Carl Nicks and Davin Joseph are both capable of
being franchise players, but must prove they can return to form after having
their 2012 campaigns ruined by injury.
Defensive Outlook = The Buccaneers had the worst pass
defense in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE last season, and they were aggressive
in fixing that weakness. It was a gamble to ship out draft picks for Darrelle
Revis, but if he comes back at a level close to his pre-injury form, it will be
worth it. He’s the rare corner that even in today’s pass-happy NFL can still
take away an opposing team’s top receiver. Ex-49er Dashon Goldson was also
brought in to solidify the safety core. A second year leap in performance from
Mark Barron will give Tampa Bay a fully revamped secondary. Tampa did lead the
NFL in run defense, but some of that success is directly related to how bad the
pass coverage was. Gerald McCoy was healthy for a full season for the first
time, and parlayed that into a Pro Bowl berth. The Buccaneers did lose fellow
defensive tackle Roy Miller, so someone will have to step up so McCoy doesn’t
end up facing constant double teams. Although not as publicly praised, Lavonte
David’s rookie year wasn’t far off of Doug Martin’s in terms of overall
production. He paired nicely with Mason Foster last season to stuff the running
game.
Ceiling = 13-3 – I already said it earlier, but it
bears repeating. If Josh Freeman finds consistency, this team can challenge the
Falcons.
Floor = 3-13 – A dismal season could occur if Freeman
is terrible and Darrelle Revis isn’t the shutdown corner the Buccaneers paid
for.Prediction = 9-7
I’m not sold on Freeman, but there’s enough talent here for the team to finish above .500.
1. Atlanta Falcons
2012 Record = 13-3, first in NFC South, lost NFC
Championship Game
2013 Schedule = @ Saints, Rams, @ Dolphins, Patriots,
Jets, BYE, Buccaneers, @ Cardinals, @ Panthers, Seahawks, @ Buccaneers, Saints,
@ Bills, @ Packers, Redskins, @ 49ers, Panthers
Franchise Players = QB Matt Ryan, WR Julio Jones, WR
Roddy White, TE Tony Gonzalez
Supporting Cast = RB Steven Jackson, LT Sam Baker, DE
Osi Umenyiora, MLB Akeem Dent, OLB Sean Witherspoon, CB Asante Samuel, FS
Thomas DeCoud, SS William Moore, K Matt BryantNotable Rookies = CB Desmond Trufant (Washington, 1-22), CB Robert Alford (Southeastern Louisiana, 2-60)
Offensive Outlook = Thanks to Atlanta convincing Tony
Gonzalez to return for one more season, Matt Ryan will have all three of his
elite receivers back in 2013. Julio Jones and Roddy White are the best wide
receiver duo in the league (think of them as a modern day Randy Moss and Cris
Carter). Jones is the more athletic of the two, but White tends to be targeted
the most when the Falcons need to move the chains. Gonzalez is still a
productive player in his seventeenth season who excels in the red zone. Steven
Jackson was signed to replace Michael Turner, and should be an upgrade for the
Falcons at runningback. Jackson is a significantly better receiver than Turner,
and should be able to cash in some short yardage touchdowns. Jacquizz Rodgers
is a solid change of pace back who will also see consistent touches. The
offensive line is the biggest question mark for the Falcons. Two of their
starters from a year ago are gone, and they do not have a dominant offensive
lineman at any position. Sam Baker is the steadiest, but isn’t an elite run
blocker.
Defensive Outlook = Atlanta was a perfect example of
how a team should play a “bend-don’t-break” defense. They didn’t stop the run
or sack the quarterback enough, but they had outstanding secondary play.
Safeties Thomas DeCoud and William Moore emerged as elite playmakers, and the
Falcons still have elite ball hawk Asante Samuel. Rookie Desmond Trufant will
likely start opposite of Samuel, which is a risk when you’re talking about a
team with Super Bowl aspirations. 66-year old Osi Umenyiora has been brought in
to replace John Abraham, which is asking a lot. It’s hard to see where
quarterback pressure is going to come from for the Falcons.
Ceiling = 13-3 – A pass rush will have to come
out of nowhere for Atlanta to match last season’s win total.
Floor = 9-7 – Short of Matt Ryan’s knee exploding,
it’s hard to see how Atlanta can lose eight games (they can thank playing the
pathetic AFC East for that).Prediction = 11-5
Of the NFC South teams, Atlanta is the most complete, but come playoff time their mediocre offensive line and defense will rear its ugly head when they face the other elite teams in the NFC.
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