2013 AFC South Preview

          Our third division tour takes us to the AFC South, which if I was lazy I could probably cut and paste last year's preview and pass it off as this years.


4. Jacksonville Jaguars

 

2012 Record = 2-14, fourth in AFC South

2013 Schedule = Chiefs, @ Raiders, @ Seahawks, Colts, @ Rams, @ Broncos, Chargers, 49ers, BYE, @ Titans, Cardinals, @ Texans, @ Browns, Texans, Bills, Titans, @ Colts

Franchise Players = RB Maurice Jones-Drew, LT Eugene Monroe

Supporting Cast = WR Cecil Shorts, WR Justin Blackmon (suspended first four games), TE Mercedes Lewis, C Brad Meester, RG Uche Nwaneri, MLB Paul Posluszny
Notable Rookies = RT Luke Joeckel (Texas A&M, 1-2), SS Jonathan Cyprien (Florida International, 2-33), QB-WR Denard Robinson (Michigan, 5-135)

Offensive Outlook = Mired by the worst quarterbacking situation in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, it’s easy to miss that Jacksonville has legitimate skill position players. Maurice Jones-Drew is the most notable Jaguar, and for the first time, will be able to hit unrestricted free agency after the season (can you say potential fantasy gold in the second or third round?). M.J.D. has the benefit of running behind one of the league’s most underrated offensive lines. Eugene Monroe is a top-10 or 15 left tackle, and second overall pick Luke Joeckel will solidify the right side. Cecil Shorts came out of nowhere to deliver excellent production (regardless of which shitty quarterback was throwing to him) before multiple concussions ended his season early. Justin Blackmon exploded when Chad Henne entered the lineup, but thanks to another bout of immaturity, will miss the first four games of the year. When he returns Jacksonville will have one of the best wide receiver duo in the league. Mercedes Lewis has never duplicated his 2010 season, but is that his fault or the quarterbacks? Ultimately, that’s the restrictor plate (NASCAR term) for the Jaguars offense. Blaine Gabbert has been comically awful, and at times it looks like he’s seeing dead people in the pocket. Chad Henne is capable of moving the offense up and down the field, but is extremely turnover prone. For fantasy purposes, Henne at least would elevate the value of the skill position players, but the new Jaguars management team has to see if there’s anything worth salvaging with Gabbert (he is after all, only 23 years old).  

Defensive Outlook = J.J. Watt had a historic 2012, but it’s still inexcusable that he had a half sack more than the Jacksonville Jaguars did. Paul Posluszny was the only steady performer on a defense that never sniffed the quarterback, couldn’t cover receivers, and was consistently worn down by the run. Jason Babin did provide a spark when he was claimed off waivers four the final four weeks of 2012, and Roy Miller (who was a steady backup for Tampa Bay) is capable of anchoring the middle of the line. Head Coach Gus Bradley, who ran a press coverage scheme as a defensive coordinator in Seattle, will have a hard time implementing the same system in Jacksonville. They spent five draft picks on defensive backs, so look for the Jaguars to have an open competition to see who can handle heavy man-coverage assignments.

Ceiling = 7-9 – It sounds crazy to say there’s a chance that Jacksonville won’t lose double-digit games (mostly because it is), but if you get the combination of a 2011 Ryan Fitzpatrick-esque season by Chad Henne and a massive contract season by Maurice Jones-Drew, it could happen.

Floor = 1-15 – There’s no other team in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE that has a higher probability of only winning one game.
Prediction = 3-13
            The offensive line is good enough that Jacksonville will be able to grind out a couple of wins, but it’s in their best interest not to win too many. Two more years of high draft picks could bring Jacksonville back to a playoff level.
 

3. Indianapolis Colts

 

2012 Record = 11-5, second in AFC South

2013 Schedule = Raiders, Dolphins, @ 49ers, @ Jaguars, Seahawks, @ Chargers, Broncos, BYE, @ Texans, Rams, @ Titans, @ Cardinals, Titans, @ Bengals, Texans, @ Chiefs, Jaguars

Franchise Players = QB Andrew Luck, WR Reggie Wayne

Supporting Cast = RB Vick Ballard, RB Ahmad Bradshaw, WR T.Y. Hilton, TE Coby Fleener, TE Dwayne Allen, LT Anthony Castonzo, MLB Jerrell Freeman, OLB Robert Mathis, CB Vontae Davis, FS Antoine Bethea, SS LaRon Landry
Notable Rookies = DE Bjoern Werner (Florida St., 1-24), LG Hugh Thornton (Illinois, 3-86)

Offensive Outlook = Mostly out of necessity, Andrew Luck got the living shit kicked out of him his first season. The majority of his passes were low percentage, and he was constantly dealing with pressure. Reunited with his offensive coordinator from Stanford, look for a quicker hitting offense that will be much more efficient. Ahmad Bradshaw was brought in late in the off-season, and will form a solid 1-2 punch with Vick Ballard. Reggie Wayne looked much more like he did when he was catching passes from Peyton Manning than he did when he was stuck with Curtis Painter in 2011. He’s still a legitimate #1 receiver who is the focal point of the offense. T.Y. Hilton was a DeSean Jackson-like home run threat that was only limited by faulty hands last season. An improvement in that department might vault him over 1,000 yards. Darrius Heyward-Bey was brought in on a one-year deal, which could pay huge dividends. Escaping the chaos of the Oakland Raiders gives Heyward-Bey a chance to reach his potential. The true Achilles heal of this unit is the offensive line. Anthony Castonzo was their only reliable blocker last season. Rookies Hugh Thornton and Khaled Holmes could be given a chance to start early in their careers. 

Defensive Outlook = You can read any number of Colts related stories on the web right now saying they are candidates for regression, and the defense is the reason why. The Colts were –30 in point differential (which means the 11 wins they netted last season were statistically ridiculous), with the defense consistently getting roasted. Andrew Luck had to pull off seven comeback victories to bail the club out. Indianapolis aggressively spent this off-season to improve their 26^th ranked defense, with LaRon Landry being the biggest catch. Landry played 16 games for the first time in four years, and if healthy, is a game changing player in the secondary. He will form a dynamic safety duo with Antoine Bethea. Vontae Davis was awful initially, but by seasons end looked like the lockdown corner he was in Miami. Indianapolis needs to find someone other than Robert Mathis who can consistently pressure the quarterback. Rookie Bjoern Werner could be that player.

Ceiling = 12-4 – Indianapolis earned a #1 seed in the AFC in Peyton Manning’s second year. Luck could duplicate that feat.

Floor = 3-13 – Luck also could get beat up again thanks to a defense that puts him behind on a consistent basis.
Prediction = 6-10
            The Colts were fun last year, but eventually logic and reason will catch up to them. The offensive line is still one or two pieces away from being reliable, and barring a major improvement by the front seven, the defense will still be suspect. Andrew Luck will have a great season, but we don’t forecast the Colts making a second straight playoff appearance.
 

2. Tennessee Titans

 

2012 Record = 6-10

2013 Schedule = @ Steelers, @ Texans, Chargers, Jets, Chiefs, @ Seahawks, 49ers, BYE, @ Rams, Jaguars, Colts, @ Raiders, @ Colts, @ Broncos, Cardinals, @ Jaguars, Texans

Franchise Players = RB Chris Johnson, LG Andy Levitre

Supporting Cast = QB Jake Locker, WR Kenny Britt, WR Kendall Wright, TE Delanie Walker, LT Michael Roos, C Fernando Velasco, DE Derrick Morgan, OLB Akeem Ayers, CB Jason McCourty, SS Bernard Pollard, SS George Wilson, KR Darius Reynaud
Notable Rookies = RG Chance Warmack (Alabama, 1-10), WR Justin Hunter (Tennessee, 2-34)

Offensive Outlook = For all of the people who threw dirt on him last season, Chris Johnson actually had a pretty decent season. 1243 rushing yards, a 4.5 average per carry, 41 receptions, and seven total touchdowns isn’t bad when you consider how poor the offensive line play for Tennessee was. No one will appreciate the acquisitions of guards Andy Levitre and Chance Warmack more than Johnson. Levitre was dominant for Buffalo, and will fit nicely between returning starters Michael Roos and Fernando Velasco. Some experts believed that Warmack was the best prospect at guard in a quarter century. Tennessee will have tremendous flexibility with two quick-footed pulling guards. Jake Locker is the next one to benefit from the o-line upgrades, as he often reacted poorly when faced with pressure. Locker lost half of the 2012 season to injury, and wasn’t as productive in the games he played after coming back than he was before dislocating his shoulder. This will be the year we find out if Locker is the Titans answer at quarterback. Tennessee has an intriguing core of wide receivers that all have the chance of being productive if given the opportunity. Kenny Britt hasn’t been worth the headaches he causes off the field, but if there was ever a year for him to keep his head on straight, it’s this one (he’s an unrestricted free agent after the season). Kendall Wright tied for the rookie lead in receptions last season, and was surprisingly reliable on third down.

Defensive Outlook = Similar to Indianapolis, the Titans defense was atrocious last season. They surrendered 30+ points in six of their first seven games, and twice had 50+ dropped on them. Expanded blitz packages stopped the bleeding a bit in the second half, but this is still a group with significant holes. Derrick Morgan finally performed well enough to not be considered a bust, but it would be a huge lift for the defense if he could lift his sack totals into the double digits. Akeem Ayers made huge strides in 2012, playing at his best when he was blitzing. The secondary was mostly terrible, but Jason McCourty at least finished the year on a high note. Bernard Pollard is way more effective when he gets to destroy members of the New England Patriots, but unfortunately for the Titans they don’t have to face Tom Brady this year.

Ceiling = 12-4 – Only attainable if the defense maintains it’s second half performance from a year ago.

Floor = 4-12 – The defense could also give up 35 points a game.
Prediction = 9-7
            If I were building an NFL team, after a franchise quarterback, the next thing I would value the most is a dominant offensive line. Tennessee looks to have the makings of that. Expect a big Chris Johnson year, a solid season from Jake Locker, and potentially a wild-card berth for the Titans.
 

1. Houston Texans

 

2012 Record = 12-4, first in AFC South

2013 Schedule = @ Chargers, Titans, @ Ravens, Seahawks, @ 49ers, Rams, @ Chiefs, BYE, Colts, @ Cardinals, Raiders, Jaguars, Patriots, @ Jaguars, @ Colts, Broncos, @ Titans

Franchise Players = RB Arian Foster, WR Andre Johnson, LT Duane Brown, C Chris Myers, DE J.J. Watt, MLB Brian Cushing

Supporting Cast = QB Matt Schaub, TE Owen Daniels, LG Wade Smith, DE Antonio Smith, OLB Brooks Reed, CB Johnathan Joseph, CB Kareem Jackson, FS Ed Reed, SS Danieal Manning
Notable Rookies = WR DeAndre Hopkins (Clemson, 1-27), FS D.J. Swearinger (South Carolina, 2-57)

Offensive Outlook = Houston looked like the most dominant team in the league until the calendar hit December. A blowout loss at New England started a stretch where they lost three of their last four to blow a first round bye in the playoffs, before eventually getting destroyed again by the Patriots in the Divisional Round. Matt Schaub shouldered most of the blame for the late season dive, but poor play from the right side of the offensive line also contributed. Arian Foster produced another double-digit touchdown season, but he suffered an alarming drop in his average yards per carry. If Ben Tate returns to his 2011 form, Houston again will have the benefit of a dynamite one-two punch. Andre Johnson might not have the explosiveness he had five years ago, but he’s still a dominant #1 receiver. Rookie DeAndre Hopkins had an excellent pre-season debut, which gives some hope that they finally will have a legitimate second wide receiver. Owen Daniels is still a reliable third down option, and has shown no signs of slowing down. Duane Brown and Chris Myers anchor one of the league’s best offensive lines. 

Defensive Outlook = It’s hard not to be one of the league’s best defenses when you are getting the production the Texans got out of J.J. Watt last season. 20.5 sacks as a 3-4 defensive end is ridiculous (for those not informed, outside linebackers are usually the top pass rushers in a 3-4. Players playing the position Watt normally lines up at are normally dedicated to stopping the run). He’s a transcendent player that gives Houston defensive coordinator Wade Phillips tons of flexibility. Antonio Smith was the main beneficiary of Watt’s destructiveness, as he rarely if ever saw double teams. The loss of Brian Cushing in Week 5 dramatically reduced the effectiveness of the Texans’ run defense. A return to full health gives Houston the chance to field the top defense in the league. The secondary was solid for the most part, but was exposed when Houston’s pass rush didn’t get to the quarterback (see both games against New England last season). Adding Ed Reed gives the Texans a respected veteran who knows what it takes for a team to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

Ceiling = 14-2 – The defense does have a chance to be vastly superior to any other teams D.

Floor = 8-8 – It would take an epically incompetent Matt Schaub performance, plus an injury or two along the offensive line for the Texans to fall to .500.
Prediction = 10-6
            On paper they are still vastly superior to the rest of the division, but catching the NFC West isn’t the walk in the park it was three years ago. That makes the difference between the Texans having a chance at a first round bye or settling for a third or fourth seed.

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Click here to read about the NFC East
Click here to read about the NFC South