Here
comes our second installment of full-season NFL picks. We’ll change up the
format a little bit (mostly because I stunk during the second half of last
season), so here are the changes you’ll see.
-I won’t list the pick until the end of each game’s write-up (kind
of stupid to spoil it. What was I thinking?)
-Instead of ranking my confidence scores for each game, I will
simply highlight five games that are among my Top-5 picks of the week. People
searching for advice on contests similar to the Hilton’s Super Contest will
still be able to see the five games I like the most, and I won’t have to expend
brainpower deciding which game I feel the third or fourth shakiest about. My
wife will vouch for me, the less brainpower I have to use, the better.
-I’ll list the day, time, network the game is airing on, and
what the over/under is for each match-up. Not sure why, but I feel like it.
Now on to our season-opening contest. The rest of my
week 1 picks will be published Friday or Saturday.
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
Wednesday, 8:35pm, NBC, O/U 45 A couple of
quick disclaimers before you read the following paragraph. Number one, I’m a
diehard Cowboys fan. Number two, I despise the Giants. I will pull hard for
Dallas to pull off a major upset tomorrow night, but there is one undeniable
fact that can’t be ignored.
THE OPENING NIGHT NFL GAME IS THE QUINTESSENTIAL “NO
FUCKING WAY GAME” FOR EVERY ROAD TEAM
Ever since
this annual event became the “Homecoming Game” for the defending Super Bowl champions,
no road team has ever won the opening night tilt. Call me a pessimist, but Tony
Romo and the Cowboys, whose failings in primetime are comical at this point,
are not the team to buck this system. Dallas will score points, and it might
even be close at the end, but there’s no way the Giants lose this game (unless
you’re playing “Madden 13”. DeMarco Murray ran for 213 on the Giants in my
coach career/franchise/whatever EA wants to call their team running mode, and
the Dallas D stifled the Giants in a 44-10 beat down. This probably speaks more
to my Madden ability than the talent level of the Cowboys, so let’s just move
on). If I didn’t have a dog in the fight, I would wager anywhere from 25 to 50%
of my gambling funds on the Giants.
GIANTS (-3.5) over Cowboys
Week 1 Top-5 Pick
(if this isn’t as bold an attempt to use a blog
to cast a reverse jinx on the Giants, than I don’t know what is. Go Cowboys!)
Franchise Players = TE Fred Davis, T Trent Williams, LB
Brian Orakpo, LB London Fletcher, LB Ryan Kerrigan
Key Free Agent Acquisitions = WR Pierre Garcon, WR Josh
Morgan, S Brandon Meriweather Potential Impact Rookies = QB Robert Griffin III (Baylor)
1-2, QB Kirk Cousins (Michigan State) 4-7
Outlook = Isn’t it a problem when the best
two players a team’s draft class can’t be on the field at the same time? Mike
Shanahan is bonkers.
Ceiling = 6-10
Floor = 1-15 No Credentials Prediction = 3-13
3. New York Giants
2011 Record = 9-7, First in NFC East, Won Super Bowl
2012 Schedule = DAL, TB, @ CAR, @ PHI, CLE, @ SF, WAS, @
DAL, PIT, @ CIN, BYE, GB, @ WAS, NO, @ ATL, @ BAL, PHI
Franchise Players = QB Eli Manning, RB Ahmad Bradshaw, WR
Victor Cruz, WR Hakeem Nicks, G Chris Snee, DE Jason Pierre-Paul, DE Justin
Tuck, LB Mathias Kiwanuka, CB Prince Amukamara
Key Free Agent Acquisitions = TE Martellus Bennett, G
Sean Locklear, DT Shaun Rogers Potential Impact Rookies = RB David Wilson (Virginia
Tech) 1-32, WR Reuben Randle (LSU) 2-32
Outlook = Are this years Giants the team
that caught fire in the playoffs on their way to a Super Bowl, or the squad
that was actually outscored by it’s opponents during the regular season
400-394? They are a maddening team to predict (or even worse, gamble on) as
they consistently play up or down to the level of their competition. They’ll
have to play up to it much more this season than last, as they have one of the
most treacherous road schedules in the league. By my count, only their Week 13
game at Washington appears to be the only easy road test, but that is thrown
out the window given their history with the Redskins (remember that Washington
thumped the Giants in New Jersey in Week 15 last season before the Giants
caught fire the rest of the season). Throw in a Super Bowl hangover, and No
Credentials will sign off on a sub-.500 season.
Ceiling = 12-4
Floor = 5-11 No Credentials Prediction = 7-9
2. Dallas Cowboys
2011 Record = 8-8, Third in NFC East
2012 Schedule = @ NYG, @ SEA, TB, CHI, BYE, @ BAL, @ CAR,
NYG, @ ATL, @ PHI, CLE, WAS, PHI, @ CIN, PIT, NO, @ WAS
Franchise Players = QB Tony Romo, RB DeMarco Murray, WR
Miles Austin, WR Dez Bryant, TE Jason Witten, T Tyron Smith, DT Jay Ratliff, LB
DeMarcus Ware, LB Sean Lee, LB Anthony Spencer
Outlook = Dallas faces similar schedule
issues to what the Giants will see, with the exception of dodging the 49ers and
Packers. Kudos to Jerry Jones for addressing the secondary, which stood out
like a sore thumb over the final month of 2011. Morris Claiborne has the tools
to be an immediate shutdown corner, and Brandon Carr is versatile enough to
play out wide or as the nickelback. If Mike Jenkins were to ever rediscover his
2009 form, Rex Ryan could have one of the top cornerback units in the league.
The lone
concern with the Cowboys on paper is their offensive line. Tyron Smith had an
excellent rookie campaign at right tackle, but is now being moved to cover Tony
Romo’s blindside (Doug Free, who previously succeeded at right tackle, was a
disaster last season at left tackle. He’ll switch back to the right). How he
adapts to this switch will ultimately determine the success of the 2012
Cowboys. If he plays at a Pro Bowl level, this will be a dominant offensive
force on par with the Packers, Patriots, and Saints.
Ceiling = 12-4
Floor = 5-11 No Credentials Prediction = 9-7
1. Philadelphia Eagles
2011 Record = 8-8, Second in NFC East
2012 Schedule = @ CLE, BAL, @ ARI, NYG, @ PIT, DET, BYE,
ATL, @ NO, DAL, @ WAS, CAR, @ DAL, @ TB, CIN, WAS, @ NYG
Franchise Players = QB Michael Vick, RB LeSean McCoy, WR
DeSean Jackson, WR Jeremy Maclin, TE Brent Celek, DE Jason Babin, DE Trent
Cole, DT Cullen Jenkins, CB Nnamdi Asomugha, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
Key Free Agent Acquisitions = S Oshiomogho Atogwe, P Mat
McBriar Potential Impact Rookies = DT Fletcher Cox (Mississippi
State) 1-12, LB Mychal Kendricks (California) 2-14, DE Vinny Curry (Marshall)
2-27, QB Nick Foles (Arizona) 3-25
Outlook = Philadelphia was a disaster at
the start of the 2011 season, but started to put the pieces together down the
stretch. The defense was aggressively overhauled this past off-season. Asante
Samuel was shipped to Atlanta (hopefully meaning that Asomugha doesn’t get
shuffled between corner and safety. He’s the best cover corner in football, and
should be left alone), and their first three draft picks should go along way in
shoring up a defense that had no answer against the run. They were even able to
draft some Mike Vick insurance (he’s a shoe in to miss at least four games) in
the form of Nick Foles, who’s been a preseason sensation. They might be a year
late, but this is the year that the Eagles will realize their potential.
