Fortunate to Be Here
12. Dale Earnhardt Jr., #88 Amp Energy/National Guard Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports (Preseason No Credentials Rank = 18)
After a fast start, Junior backed into the playoffs with a string of top-20 finishes, a maneuver patented by Jeremy Mayfield during the 2004 and 2005 seasons. The 88 bunch has done nothing to demonstrate they are capable of running in the top-5 consistently, and it doesn’t do him any favors to be third in the Hendrick Motorsports food chain. Perhaps this year just getting in will be enough for Dale, and next season he can build up to more of a championship caliber level. Junior has roughly the same chance of winning the title as a great-grandmother would have of appearing in Playboy.
11. Ryan Newman, #39 Army Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing (Preseason No Credentials Rank = 24)
10. Tony Stewart, #14 Mobil 1/Office Depot Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing (Preseason No Credentials Rank = 6)These two guys should probably share the driver of the year award, as the fact that they were able to pilot their mediocre race teams into the Chase is remarkable. With the exception of the second Chase race at Loudon (where Newman and Stewart finished 1-2), expect both drivers to struggle for top-15s.
Needs a Hug
9. Denny Hamlin, #11 Fed-Ex Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing (Preseason No Credentials Rank = 7)
No Credentials predicted that Hamlin wouldn’t have smooth sailing in 2011, but never thought it would be so bad that he would need a wildcard to get into the Chase. Maybe the relief of getting back into the playoffs (remember that Hamlin was so paranoid in the final month of the regular season he had his team switch from Gibbs engines to Toyota factory power) will turn the light bulb on for him, but I’ll predict that it will be until at least next season before Hamlin is a serious championship threat.The Jackass
8. Kurt Busch, #22 Shell-Pennzoil Dodge, Penske Racing (Preseason No Credentials Rank = 10)
I’ll be honest…I like Kurt Busch. I’ve cheered for the guy ever since he drove in the Craftsmen Truck Series (although he was partially to blame for this Geoff Bodine crash that is the worst accident I have ever seen live). I was one of roughly 600 people in the United States that was pulling for him to win the inaugural Chase in 2004. However, at some point, the guy just needs to let go of his “feud” with Jimmie Johnson and just drive his damn car. Saying that Johnson needs to learn how to drive (insinuating that the #48 was so fast the last five years that Johnson didn’t need any skill) is ridiculous. The last time I checked, Johnson had won five titles, and Kurt has one.
Fringe Contenders
7. Matt Kenseth, #17 Crown Royal Ford, Roush-Fenway Racing (Preseason No Credentials Rank = 9)
It would be really nice to see the man who won the final Winston Cup (and effectively caused the suits running NASCAR to panic and throw together the Chase format) become the second driver to have won a title in both formats. His championship chances increase exponentially if Carl Edwards struggles, leaving Kenseth as the lead Roush driver.6. Kevin Harvick, #29 Budweiser Chevrolet, Richard Childress Racing (Preseason No Credentials Rank = 5)
Harvick had been in a funk ever since benefiting from Dale Jr. running out of gas at Charlotte. Perhaps stealing a win from Jeff Gordon at Richmond will break Harvick out of his funk.The Wildcard
5. Brad Keselowski, #2 Miller Lite Dodge, Penske Racing (Preseason No Credentials Rank = 25)If you told Brad Keselowski how well he would drive after he broke his ankle, he probably would’ve broken one back in January. It’s hard to think of any other driver in the last twenty years who has gone on a run like this. To put it in perspective, Keselowski wasn’t even in the top 20 after winning his first race of the year at Kansas. I find it hard to believe that Keselowski can keep it up for an entire championship run, but right now he has the best chance of hanging with the top four.
Top Non-Hendrick Threats
4. Kyle Busch, #18 M&Ms Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing (Preseason No Credentials Rank = 4)
The 125 mph speeding ticket makes me question the whole “Kyle Busch has matured” storyline that has been floated out by numerous writers, but nevertheless Busch appears poised to have his best showing in the Chase. 3. Carl Edwards, #99 Aflac Ford, Roush-Fenway Racing (Preseason No Credentials Rank = 3)
Edwards hasn’t been as strong ever since rumors of him joining Joe Gibbs Racing were floated around. I probably should drop him to fourth, but I’ll drink the Kool-Aid and believe Edwards when he says that the #99 has been trying new set ups leading up to the Chase. He’s had success at almost every Chase venue (with the exception of Loudon and Martinsville). If he’s within four points of the lead going into Homestead, book Edwards for a championship celebration.The Favorites
2. Jimmie Johnson, #48 Lowe’s Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports (Preseason No Credentials Rank = 1)
1. Jeff Gordon, #24 Drive to End Hunger Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports (Preseason No Credentials Rank = 2)
Dropping Johnson behind Gordon isn’t a knock on Jimmie, but more of a testament to how well Jeff has run over the past month and a half. I expect both of these drivers to be neck in neck the whole way, with Talladega representing the biggest chance of a huge point swing between the two. It’s kind of insane to pick against Jimmie Johnson, but I’ll bank on Gordon equaling JJ with a fifth title this season.
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