Week 3 NFL Picks

Two programming notes…

1. There is no line yet for the Cowboys-Redskins game because of Romo’s rib injury. Hopefully there will be a line before Monday night.
2. I have to work early tomorrow, and I want to cram a game of Madden in before bed, so we’re keeping the analysis short this week.

EAGLES (-9) over Giants
            Nine points is about 3.5 higher than I would like. This game feels like a stay away.

Philadelphia 27 New York 17

Confidence = 2

49ers (+3) over BENGALS

            I’m only picking the 49ers because of the Jerome Simpson drug bust earlier this week. History has shown that crime and winning doesn’t mix, unless the 1990’s Dallas Cowboys are involved.

San Francisco 17, Cincinnati 10

Confidence = 11

Patriots (-8) over BILLS

            The over/under could be 65, and I would still bet the over.

New England 48, Buffalo 31

Confidence = 12

SAINTS (-4) over Texans

            Houston will represent themselves well, but look for Brees and company to squeak by.

New Orleans 34, Houston 27

Confidence = 6

BROWNS (-2.5) over Dolphins

            This game takes home the title for least amount of relevant fantasy contributors in one game.

Cleveland 10, Miami 7

Confidence = 10

Lions (-3.5) over VIKINGS
            The only thing offensively that Minnesota can do consistently is run the ball. Good luck this week against the Lions terrifying front four.

Detroit 21, Minnesota 7

Confidence = 5

TITANS (-6.5) over Broncos

            Impressive win last week by Tennessee. When Chris Johnson finally gets cranked up, watch out for the Titans.

Tennessee 27, Denver 17

Confidence = 15

PANTHERS (-3.5) over Jaguars

            Cam Newton won’t throw for 400 yards in this one, but he won’t have to against a team being led by fellow rookie Blaine Gabbert.

Carolina 20, Jacksonville 10

Confidence = 13

CHARGERS (-14.5) over Chiefs

            This is a great week to start the Chargers defense in fantasy.

San Diego 41, Kansas City 7

Confidence = 14

Jets (-3) over RAIDERS

            I’d actually like to pick a push for this game, but I’ll sign off on an extra point.

New York 17, Oakland 13

Confidence = 4

Ravens (-4) over RAMS

            The schedule makers did no favors to the Rams this season.

Baltimore 21, St. Louis 3

Confidence = 9

BUCCANEERS (-1.5) over Falcons

            A potent combination of an under the radar Tampa team mixed with a Falcons squad that is being a tad overrated after their win over Philly. Love Tampa in this one (loyal readers know what to do with a proclamation like that. Bet the opposite!)

Tampa Bay 20, Atlanta 17

Confidence = 3

Cardinals (-3.5) over SEAHAWKS

            I hate this pick, but would hate it even more if my hopes of winning hinged on Tavaris Jackson.

Arizona 24, Seattle 14

Confidence = 8

Packers (-3.5) over BEARS

            Green Bay’s defense has looked pretty soft the first two weeks. Don’t expect that to be the case this Sunday facing a team that can’t block for Jay Cutler.

Green Bay 24, Chicago 10

Confidence = 7

Steelers (-10.5) over COLTS

            File this away in the “Would Be a Great Game if Manning Was Playing” department.

Pittsburgh 27, Indianapolis 0

Confidence = 16

Last Week’s Record = 8-6-2

Season Record = 17-11-4
Last Week’s Top-5 Record = 3-1-1
Season Top-5 Record = 6-2-2
Confidence Score = 153 out of 272