2012 NASCAR Chase For The Cup Rankings

            The title of this post is pretty self-explanatory. In reverse order, here is our pre-Chase ranking of the 12-man field.

Fortunate To Be Here

12. Kevin Harvick, #29 Budweiser Chevrolet, Richard Childress Racing

            Childress cars just haven’t had the speed this season (some say that has to do with the car owner focusing on the careers of his grandsons). He’s been finishing consistently in the top-10 or 15, but that won’t get it done in The Chase.

Need To See It Before I Believe It

11. Martin Truex Jr., #56 Napa Toyota, Michael Waltrip Racing

            Truex made his first Chase since 2007 when he was driving for DEI. He’s been impressive, and has a great chance of winning at Chicago the opening weekend, but I don’t see him stringing together a championship winning Chase. If he’s back next year with a couple of wins when The Chase starts, I’ll think about it.

10. Dale Earnhardt Jr., #88 Amp Energy/National Guard Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            Dale Jr. has been much more impressive this season, racking up a win at Michigan and having cars capable of winning on multiple occasions. A fast start is vital for him, as he typically has a miserable performance in the opening race of The Chase. If he rips off a top-5 Sunday, this ranking will look silly.

(EDITORS NOTE: Before any members of “Junior Nation” send me nasty messages on Twitter, please note that I ranked Tony Stewart tenth before last year’s Chase. You all know what happened next) 

Legitimate Title Contenders

9. Brad Keselowski, #2 Miller Lite Dodge, Penske Racing

            One has to think that Dodge’s impending departure from NASCAR will have an impact eventually. Expect a fade from the blue deuce.

8. Clint Bowyer, #15 5-Hour Energy Toyota, Michael Waltrip Racing

            Bowyer has exceeded No Credentials’ expectations this season, leading the stunning renaissance at Michael Waltrip Racing. He’s performed well at most of The Chase venues, and based on Sportsbook’s odds, represents the best long shot pick to win the title (he’s 20 to 1). 

7. Matt Kenseth, #17 Best Buy Ford, Roush-Fenway Racing

            If only Kenseth wasn’t a lame duck driver. Hard to believe that he won’t play second fiddle to Greg Biffle in the Roush pecking order.

6. Tony Stewart, #14 Office Depot/Mobil 1 Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing

            Smoke peaked back in March, and with the exception of a summer win at Daytona, hasn’t been as impressive since. Stewart isn’t as bad off as he was last year (loyal leaders will recall that I ranked him tenth going in to last year’s Chase. Oops), so you can’t rule out the possibility of him going on a 2011-like tear.

5. Jeff Gordon, #24 Dupont Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

 

 

            Do yourself a favor and play the following video. Fast-forward to about the 9:20 mark and then watch the move Jeff Gordon pulled on Rusty Wallace.

            For the first time in 13 years, Jeff Gordon drove that hard when he muscled his way through the field at Richmond last Saturday night. We’ll see if that carries over into a Chase winning run the next ten weeks.

4. Kasey Kahne, #5 Farmers Insurance/Quaker State Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            After a disastrous start to the season, Kahne has been one of the steadiest drivers on the circuit since May. He’ll have speed at every Chase track. It’s just a matter of staying out of trouble.

3. Denny Hamlin, #11 Fed-Ex Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing

            This year’s top seed (and No Credentials preseason championship pick), Hamlin appears to be peaking at the perfect time. Being the only hope for a Gibbs championship will only boost Hamlin’s title chances.

2. Greg Biffle, #16 3M Ford, Roush-Fenway Racing

            The regular season point’s leader, Biffle has had the kind of consistency that is needed to win a championship all year long. Even better for him, he is likely Roush’s top dog in the fight (with Cousin Carl missing the Chase, and Kenseth being a lame duck). If he survives Loudon and Martinsville with solid top-15 finishes, he’ll be a serious title threat when the green flag drops at Homestead in November.

1. Jimmie Johnson, #48 Lowe’s Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            Johnson has more Top-5s and Top-10s than anyone. By my count, he could’ve won five other races if it weren’t for a pit road or on-track mishap that derailed him. He’s been fast everywhere. It’s going to take a super human effort to keep Johnson from winning his sixth championship.