Week 1 NFL Picks

Indianapolis Colts @ Chicago Bears
Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 43.5
            I attempted to talk myself into a Colts cover (I even typed three sentences making a case for it), but with the removal of Mike Martz as offensive coordinator, it’s much more likely that Chicago jams the ball down the Colts’ throats all game long. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis won’t have many opportunities to get Jay Cutler to the ground.

BEARS (-10) over Colts

 

Philadelphia Eagles @ Cleveland Browns

Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 43
            Short of a road trip to Jacksonville, Philadelphia couldn’t of asked for a better Week 1 road game. There’s too much Brandon Weeden involved to support a Browns upset.

Eagles (-9.5) over BROWNS

 

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 38.5
            I’m on the record as saying I think the Jets will stink and the Bills will be playoff contenders, and I’m not backing down from that belief. Buffalo’s revamped defense will be able to handle New York’s quarterbacks (regardless of which one is in the game). It won’t be pretty, but look for Buffalo to make a statement on the road.

Bills (+3) over JETS

 

Washington Redskins @ New Orleans Saints

Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 49.5
            This game is going to be a savage, 2007-Patriot like beat-down. Robert Griffin III could account for three touchdowns and the ‘Skins could still lose by 30.

SAINTS (-7.5) over Redskins

Week 1 Top-5 Pick

New England Patriots @ Tennessee Titans

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 47
            Tennessee isn’t as bad as most experts seem to be predicting. Assuming Jake Locker is competent, Tennessee’s pass rush will keep the Titans close. I wouldn’t bet the Titans’ money line, but I’ll go out on a small limb and say they only lose to the Patriots by 3.

TITANS (+5.5) over Patriots

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Minnesota Vikings

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 39.5
            Here’s this week’s winner of the “Game With the Most Implications on Who Gets the First Overall Pick in Next Year’s Draft Award”. This could be the only week that Minnesota is favored to win all season, but it is 100% warranted. Blaine Gabbert is the worst starting quarterback in the league. He’ll have a hard time keeping his eyes off of Jared Allen.

VIKINGS (-3.5) over Jaguars

Week 1 Top-5 Pick
 

Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 42.5
            Ron Jaworski said a couple of nice things about Dolphins rookie Ryan Tannehill on “Pardon the Interruption” the other day. I’m not buying them.

TEXANS (-13) over Dolphins
 

St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions

Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 45.5
            I don’t completely trust the Lions this year, but asking St. Louis to keep this game within two scores is asking a lot. Detroit’s warts won’t show up until Week 2.

LIONS (-8) over Rams

 

Atlanta Falcons @ Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 43.5
            For my brain anyway, this is the hardest game to predict. Atlanta has generated more buzz this off-season, but Kansas City returns three key players who missed the majority of last season with ACL injuries to a team that two years ago was in the playoffs. When in doubt, take the points.

CHIEFS (+3) over Falcons

 

San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers

Sunday, 4:30pm, FOX, O/U 47
            At first glance, one would call this game the battle of an immovable object (the 49ers defense) against an unstoppable force (the Packers offense). However, one should remember the immovable object gave up 466 passing yards to Drew Brees in the Divisional Round last January. Aaron Rodgers will figure out a way to pull this one out.     

PACKERS (-5) over 49ers

 

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday, 4:30pm, FOX, O/U 47
            This was another tough call, but let’s talk about the over/under. You’re telling me that two of the worst defenses from last season can’t allow seven touchdowns? I love the over. Remember that when the final score is 24-21 Carolina.

Panthers (-2.5) over BUCCANEERS

 

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals

Sunday, 4:30pm, FOX, O/U 41
            Unpopular opinion alert…Russell Wilson is going to suck. Sure he looked great when preseason defenses were running vanilla plays, but watch what happens when he has to deal with a zone blitz. I can’t figure out how people have been so quick to jump on the Wilson bandwagon. Remember this when he throws four touchdowns against the Cardinals.

CARDINALS (+3) over Seahawks

Week 1 Top-5 Pick
 

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos

Sunday, 8:30pm, NBC, O/U 44.5
            I lost a ton of money when the combo of God and Tim Tebow brought down Pittsburgh in the playoffs last season, so it’s only fitting that I pick the Steelers again as one of my Top-5 Picks of the week. Peyton Manning is one of the five greatest quarterbacks to ever chuck the pigskin, but to think he’ll lead Denver to victory in his first game in two years is preposterous, especially against one of the top-5 defenses in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. 

Steelers (+2) over BRONCOS

Week 1 Top-5 Pick
 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens

Monday, 7:00pm, ESPN, O/U 41.5
            Cincinnati kept it close against Baltimore twice last season. Seven points is too high for this line.

Bengals (+7) over RAVENS

San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders

Monday, 10:20pm, ESPN, O/U 46.5
            The second game of ESPN’s doubleheader (which you should all be prepared to watch with your mute on, Chris Berman is doing the play-by-play) always seems to be a weird game. Assuming Darren McFadden doesn’t pull his groin until after the start of the fourth quarter, I think the Raiders will pull off a win at home.

RAIDERS (-1) over Chargers

 

Thursday Pick = 0-1 (great reverse jinx by me!)