Thursday, August 6, 2015

2015 Fantasy Football Preview: Tight End


            No Credentials has already told you when to draft your kicker and defense, and now it’s time to talk about actual players. The sadness that is Deflategate is still not resolved, so we’ll continue our fantasy football preview in reverse order. We start with arguably the coolest person on planet Earth.



Tier 1 = Gronk


R.Gronkowski, NE

            Gronk surpasses Jimmy Graham as the lone tight end who warrants first round pick consideration this season. We don’t believe he can stay healthy again, but the chance he does is well worth the risk if you miss out on the top-tier runningbacks. His per-game production is vastly superior to any other tight end in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. 



Tier-2 = Best Guys That Aren’t Gronk


J.Graham, SEA
Z.Ertz, PHI
G.Olsen, CAR
M.Bennett, CHI
T.Kelce, KC

            We were ready to put Jimmy Graham in a tier by himself, but when he told the media that 75% of his job now is blocking, that gives us reason for concern. Seattle doesn’t chuck the ball nearly as much as the Saints, and we don’t expect that philosophy to change just because Graham is in the fold. His value will be much more dependant on his touchdown total, which is always a risky proposition.
            As for the rest of the group, these are all very good starters who could chip in 70+ receptions and 800+ yards. Zach Ertz is our favorite non-Graham tight end here, as the loss of Jeremy Maclin should divert even more passes his way. We’re not as high on Travis Kelce as most of the fantasy football community is, but we wouldn’t be bummed out if he ended up on one of our teams.



Tier-3 = Low Ceiling Starters


J.Witten, DAL
J.Cameron, MIA
J.Thomas, JAC
O.Daniels, DEN
D.Walker, TEN

            Here are your options if you choose to wait on drafting a tight end. In PPR formats this group isn’t that far off the second tier. In terms of raw talent Jordan Cameron belongs in the second tier, but we’re not sold entirely on Ryan Tannehill’s ability to utilize him. Julius Thomas also fits this description, but unlike Cameron, doesn’t have a history of success without Peyton Manning throwing him the ball.

Tier-4 = Lottery Tickets


D.Allen, IND
J.Reed, WAS
V.Davis, SF
L.Green, SD
L.Donnell, NYG
A.Gates, SD

            In 12-team leagues, one of these guys will be a Week 1 starter, which is frightening. For those of you that are bold though, there is tons of profit potential here. Dwayne Allen racked up 8 touchdowns on only 29 receptions, and with all the weapons at Andrew Luck’s disposal Allen could find himself with plenty of open field to work with. Jordan Reed is a gifted receiver who just needs to stay healthy. Vernon Davis is old, but if Colin Kaepernick straightens his issues out, Davis stands to benefit the most. Antonio Gates shouldn’t be ignored either, as he’ll only miss four games due to suspension. If Lardarius Green doesn’t break out in September, Gates will deliver top-5 production the rest of the way.

Tier 5 = Bye Week Subs


H.Miller, PIT
M.Rivera, OAK
T.Eifert, CIN
J.Cook, STL
K.Rudolph, MIN
C.Clay, BUF
A.Seferian-Jenkins, TB
C.Fleener, IND
S.Chandler, NE
J.Hill, NO
J.Amaro, NYJ
T.Wright, TB
N.Paul, WAS

            When he retires, we are going to name this group “The Heath Miller Memorial Tier”. You shouldn’t target any of these guys in a fantasy draft, but keep them in mind for bye week coverage. Mychal Rivera and Tyler Eifert have the best chance of achieving weekly fantasy relevance.

When to Draft (or bid for) One


            We discussed Gronk a little but it bears repeating…he’s a reasonable draft pick any point after the fifth pick. Especially if you’re in a standard scoring league, his projected yardage and touchdown total is vastly superior to any of his peers. If positional scarcity is your thing you won’t blink taking him over the top-tier wide receivers.
            Currently going towards the end of the third round in Yahoo leagues, Jimmy Graham is one tight end I will not draft. The rest of the tight end field is going in the sixth round or later, and that’s a much more reasonable price tag. You can fill all of your wide receiver and running back spots, and maybe even have QB filled and still end up with a decent option at tight end.

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