Ebola Was Overrated, and Other Things About 2014

            A couple of you have asked where No Credentials has been the last few months. We regret the lack of activity, but it can be chalked up to multiple factors.

1. I have a new job, and the schedule I work doesn’t fit my previous pattern of posting.
2. My son is a terrorist.
3. Okay my son isn’t really a terrorist, but he’s an energetic four year old who never fails to wake up early and does everything in his power to stay up as late as possible. I love him dearly, but he wears my wife and I out daily.
4. The Dallas Cowboys have done pretty well since we’ve gone mute, so I haven’t wanted to disrupt the cosmic workings of the universe.
5. I’m pretty damn lazy.

         With all that said, we want to hand out some fake awards to recap the year. These are things I could’ve posted about if I had any form of drive or motivation to do so.

Best Play = Odell Beckham’s Catch Against the Cowboys

            In a vacuum, Beckham’s Internet-breaking grab was the most athletic thing I’ve ever seen on a football field.

            However, folks need to pump the brakes on calling it the greatest catch in the history of the NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. The Giants didn’t even win the game, and the team sputtered to a 6-10 finish. For our money, David Tyree’s Helmet Catch was the greatest grab in NFL history. Let’s punch Patriots’ fans in the stomach by posting the video of it.

Honorable Mention = Marshawn Lynch going ham on the Cardinals.

Most Overrated = Ebola’s Impact on the United States

            When Ebola first surfaced on American soil, I had conversations with people who genuinely believed the government was behind the outbreak in an attempt to eliminate a large part of the population. I’m guessing these same people bought a lot of canned vegetables in 2012.

(EDITORS NOTE: We understand that Ebola is a serious disease that is ravaging Africa)

Honorable Mention = Kirk Cousins (holy shit he sucks. Cousins owes me a refund for the money I wagered on the Deadskins against the Giants in Week 4)

Best Kids Show = Henry Danger

            We were all in on Nickelodeon’s superhero show the first time Captain Man hit on Henry’s mom.

No Credentials Video Game of the Year = Clash of Clans

            I’m not proud of it.

Honorable Mention = Candy Crush (I’m not proud of that either)

Most Memorable Bad Team = Cleveland Browns

            In the AP Report on Josh Gordon’s suspension last week, the words “the team was unable to locate Gordon and quarterback Johnny Manziel Friday night” were actually printed. Somehow, a terrible Kevin Costner movie was the lone highlight of 2014 for the Cleveland Browns.

Honorable Mention = Sacramento Kings (Boogie!!!)

Team of the Year = 2013-14 San Antonio Spurs

            How they were so easily able to dismantle the Miami Heat in the Finals, and put an end to the “Big Two featuring a Broken Down Dwyane Wade” era, earns San Antonio team of the year status.

Honorable Mention = 2013-14 Seattle Seahawks, 2014 Boston Red Sox (just kidding!)

The Next Great One = Anthony Davis

            The Brow is improving year by year at a rate never seen in the NBA before. He’s going to be great on the Lakers in two years.

Honorable Mention = Andrew Luck

Most Ignorant = NASCAR Fans

            NASCAR fans will literally bitch about anything. It’s the worst fan base in sports.

League of the Year = NBA

            It was a great year for the NBA for a multitude of reasons. Adam Silver took over as the new commish, and immediately became the most powerful leader in sports when he removed Donald Sterling from the Clippers. We already discussed the Spurs, whose title run was fueled by incredible passing from every spot on the floor. The league goes into 2015 with the most teams having a realistic chance at a title in the history of the NBA. It is a great time to be a fan of The Association.

Film of the Year = The Lego Movie

            If you don’t have kids, I fully advise you to rent one for a day so you don’t feel weird watching The Lego Movie.

Most Valuable Player = Madison Bumgarner

            He’ll probably need Tommy John Surgery in six months, but who cares? Bumgarner was amazing in carrying the Giants to their third title in five years.

            We’ll try to write more as we enter 2015. NFL picks will be back for the Wildcard Round Friday. Have a safe and Happy New Years everyone (don’t drive drunk kids). 

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Weekend (10/3-10/5)

10. The Patriots Aren’t Dead

            So quit your bitching New England.

9. Arizona State Drops USC With Last Second Hail Mary

            Cue video!

8. Matt Kemp Delivers Game 2 Win for Los Angeles
            After Clayton Kershaw was rocked in Game 1, the Dodgers needed someone to make a play to even the series. Kemp delivered with an eighth inning dinger.

7. Orioles, Royals Punch Tickets to ALCS
            This might be the first playoff series that I will legitimately be rooting for both teams to win.

6. Cowboys Blow a 10-Point Fourth Quarter Lead, Still Win in Overtime

            Rough estimates by our crack research staff say that Dallas has lost in this exact scenario roughly 300 times in the last decade. Funny things are happening Big D.

           

5. Peyton Manning Tosses 500^th Career Touchdown

            Nothing else to do here other than tip your cap and say “Omaha”.

4. Cleveland Browns Successfully Complete Largest Road Comeback in NFL History

            Reportedly, it will still count even though it occurred against the Titans.

           

3. Mississippi State Routs Texas A&M  

2. Ole Miss Shocks Alabama

            Saturday may have been the greatest day in the history of Mississippi.

 1. San Francisco Giants Win Longest Postseason Game Ever

            In a game where there were more innings played (18) than hits (17), No Credentials was desperately hoping a shipment of HGH could be split among both clubhouses. Surprisingly, Washington was able to bounce back from this soul crushing defeat to win Game 3.

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Past Weekend (9/12-9/14)

10. Adrian Peterson Gives NFL Another Black Eye

            Not a whole lot to do here but hope for the health and safety of Peterson’s child.

9. Kyrie Irving Named MVP as United States Wins FIBA World Cup

            Along with his All-Star MVP from last February, that makes two meaningless most valuable player awards Irving has racked up in 2014.

8. The Dallas Cowboys Won’t Go 0-16
            Also noteworthy was the stink bomb Jake Locker dropped for the Titans on Sunday. After Week 1 there was a chance we were going to have to switch which team my son played for in Madden this year, but luckily for him he won’t have to look for a new squad to suit up for.

7. Packers Spot Jets 18 Points, Win Anyway

            Geno Smith was pretty spunky in the first half against Green Bay, but unfortunately he came crashing back to Earth as Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson took over.

6. Boston College Stuns #9 USC

            We would’ve enjoyed this result even more if Lane Kiffin were still the Head Coach of the Trojans.

           

5. South Carolina Survives With Late Goal-Line Stand Against Georgia

            The beauty of the new college football playoff is South Carolina still has hope after getting thumped in their first game against Texas A&M.

4. Chargers Slay Defending Champs

            Despite losing Ryan Matthews and only averaging 2.7 yards per carry as a team on the ground, San Diego still managed to hang onto the ball for 42 minutes and wear out the vaunted Seattle defense. Antonio Gates delivered a vintage performance, matching his career high with three touchdown receptions.

           

3. Brad Keselowski Drives Up the Middle to Win First Race of The Chase

            Bad Brad’s splitting of Kevin Harvick and Kyle Larson to take the lead might go down as the launch point for his second championship. He can take it easy the next two weeks as he’s already advanced to the round of 12.

           

2. Bears Steal a Flag-Fest in San Francisco

            We were about to write off the Bears this year before Brandon Marshall dragged them into the lead in the fourth quarter.

1. Browns Stun Saints With Last Second Field Goal

            Apparently, it’s the same old sorry ass Saints when they have to play on the road. Even though it’s early in the season, this loss probably wipes out any chance they have at securing home field advantage in the NFC.

2014 AFC North Preview

4. Pittsburgh Steelers

2013 Record = 8-8, Second in AFC North, Missed Playoffs

2014 Schedule = Browns, @ Ravens, @ Panthers, Buccaneers, @ Jaguars, @ Browns, Texans, Colts, Ravens, @ Jets, @ Titans, BYE, Saints, @ Bengals, @ Falcons, Chiefs, Bengals

Blue Chippers = None

High Quality Players = QB Ben Roethlisberger, WR Antonio Brown, SS Troy Polamalu
Solid Contributors = WR Lance Moore, LG Ramon Foster, C Maurkice Pouncey, RG David DeCastro, DE Cameron Heyward, MLB Lawrence Timmons, OLB Jason Worilds
Impact Rookies = MLB Ryan Shazier (1-15, Ohio State), DE Stephon Tuitt (2-46, Notre Dame)

Good News = Pittsburgh has solidified the middle of it’s offensive line.

Bad News = Ike Taylor is beyond washed up.

Outlook = The Steelers are desperately in need of a full roster reboot, but the franchise is still committed to veterans who delivered two Super Bowl titles. With all that has been accomplished by Ben Roethlisberger and Troy Polamalu, you can’t completely fault them. Big Ben was still hit a lot in 2013 (mostly due to miserable play from his offensive tackles), but at least there was some semblance of pass protection for him. A greater commitment to the running game would go a long way in helping, as better balance would keep Roethlisberger upright. Le’Veon Bell will be given the first crack at full-time duty, but free agent acquisition LeGarrette Blount was brought in to push him. Antonio Brown had a massive breakout campaign, and is set up once again for another elite fantasy season. Lance Moore was brought in to fill the chain moving void left by Emmanuel Sanders, and Markus Wheaton will be given every opportunity in his sophomore season to make an impact. A full season from Heath Miller would go a long way in solidifying the Steelers passing game.

            Defensively is where Pittsburgh’s real problems are, as there defense is filled with either players past their primes or youngsters that haven’t reached their potential yet. Troy Polamalu caused a lot of havoc last year with 5 forced fumbles, but his ball-playing skills are virtually non-existent. Pittsburgh treats Ike Taylor like he’s still as shut-down corner, which is either an extreme case of denial or desperation. Jason Worilds and Cameron Heyward both need to raise their games to return the Steelers defense to elite status.

Prediction = This is the year the Steelers wheels really fall off. Look for a full rebuild to begin in 2015. 4-12



3. Cleveland Browns

2013 Record = 4-12, Last in AFC North, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = @ Steelers, Saints, Ravens, BYE, @ Titans, Steelers, @ Jaguars, Raiders, Buccaneers, @ Bengals, Texans, @ Falcons, @ Bills, Colts, Bengals, @ Panthers, @ Ravens

Blue Chippers = WR Josh Gordon (sigh), LT Joe Thomas

High Quality Players = C Alex Mack, MLB Karlos Dansby, CB Joe Haden, SS Donte Whitner
Solid Contributors = TE Jordan Cameron, OLB Jabaal Sheard
Impact Rookies = CB Justin Gilbert (1-8, Oklahoma State), QB Johnny Fucking Football (1-22, Texas A&M), RG Joel Bitonio (2-35, Nevada)

Good News = No other team crushed the draft this year like the Cleveland Browns.

Bad News = Josh Gordon really likes marijuana.

Outlook = Since returning to the NFL in 1999, there hasn’t been a more consistently dysfunctional franchise than the Cleveland Browns (remember the Raiders actually won the AFC in 2002). 2014 is yet another season where the team features a new general manager (no love for Mike Lombardi, even after the Trent Richardson heist), a new Head Coach, and a new Week 1 quarterback. We’d be much higher (pun intended!) on Cleveland’s chances at sleeper status if it wasn’t for Josh Gordon. Gordon tested positive for marijuana, and since he’s a repeat offender, he could miss the entire season (it’s too bad he didn’t just beat the shit out of his fiancée like Ray Rice did, that would’ve only cost him two games. Good work Roger Goodell). Gordon was the MVP of all three of my fantasy teams last year, so No Credentials will dearly miss him. Without Gordon, Cleveland’s wide receivers are a collection of misfit toys. Earl Bennett is a decent fourth receiver, and I think Miles Austin and Nate Burleson already tore their hamstrings. Jordan Cameron will be the most reliable receiver from the tight end position, and it’s not unrealistic for him to be the second most valuable tight end in fantasy behind Jimmy Graham, regardless of which quarterback plays. Brian Hoyer was just named the starter today, but whether due to injury or poor performance, we expect to see Johnny Manziel by Week 10.

            Cleveland was actually a top-10 defensive unit last year, and with the addition of Justin Gilbert and Donte Whitner to the secondary, should continue to be the strength of the team. The secondary has a chance to be among the five best in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. The Browns only face one top-10 offense from 2013 this season, so there is a chance they can steal some low scoring ball games.

Prediction = Barring a miracle Josh Gordon ruling that gets him on the field in October, Cleveland’s offense is going to be a problem, but at least a favorable schedule gives them a chance to sniff .500. 6-10



2. Baltimore Ravens

2013 Record = 8-8, Third in AFC North, Missed Playoffs

2014 Schedule = Bengals, Steelers, @ Browns, Panthers, @ Colts, @ Buccaneers, Falcons, @ Bengals, @ Steelers, Titans, BYE, @ Saints, Chargers, @ Dolphins, Jaguars, @ Texans, Browns

Blue Chippers = None

High Quality Players = RG Marshal Yanda, OLB Elvis Dumervil, CB Lardarius Webb
Solid Contributors = WR Torrey Smith, WR Steve Smith, TE Dennis Pitta, LT Eugene Monroe, DE Terrell Suggs, DT Haloti Ngata
Impact Rookies = MLB C.J. Mosley (1-17, Alabama), DT Timmy Jernigan (2-48, Florida State), FS Terrance Brooks (3-79, Florida State)

Good News = The offensive line can’t play any worse than they did last year.

Bad News = How much more money do they owe Joe Flacco again?

Outlook = It’s hard to believe that a year ago at this team the Ravens were the defending Super Bowl champions after their mediocre 2013 campaign. The offense was abysmal, finishing the year as the fourth worst unit in football. Most of those troubles can be attributed to dreadful offensive line play. Joe Flacco was under constant duress, and whomever he handed the ball off too had a hard time just getting 3 yards per carry. The hiring of Gary Kubiak as offensive coordinator should go along way in addressing those issues, as his zone-blocking scheme was effective in both Denver and Houston for many years. Eugene Monroe also gets a full off-season in the Ravens system after being acquired midseason last year from Jacksonville. Ray Rice will miss the first two games due to suspension, so Bernard Pierce will have a chance to seize a sizable workload. Pierce could be a better fit for Kubiak’s blocking schemes. Torrey Smith averaged over 17 yards per catch last year, and with better pass protection could see an up tick in usage. Steve Smith was brought in for the other starting spot, and Baltimore is looking for the same value out of him that they got from Anquan Boldin during their Super Bowl run. Dennis Pitta is Joe Flacco’s security blanket, and a full season from him would do wonders on third down.

            Even with younger players replacing veterans from the Super Bowl team and a sputtering offense, the defense nearly cracked the top-10 in total yards allowed. For the Ravens to return to the level of play from their hey-day, they will need to generate more negative plays. C.J. Mosley looks like the next in a long line of great Baltimore linebackers. Jimmy Smith was a first round pick in 2011, and this might be his last chance to play to his potential before Baltimore looks for another option at cornerback. Terrance Brooks was a steal in the third round, and projects to be an immediate starter.

Prediction = The offense will improve enough to keep the defense off the field more, and return the Ravens to playoff contention. 9-7

1. Cincinnati Bengals

2013 Record = 11-5, AFC North Champions, Lost AFC Wildcard Game

2014 Schedule = @ Ravens, Falcons, Titans, BYE, @ Patriots, Panthers, @ Colts, Ravens, Jaguars, Browns, @ Saints, @ Texans, @ Buccaneers, Steelers, @ Browns, Broncos, @ Steelers

Blue Chippers = LT Andrew Whitworth, DT Geno Atkins

High Quality Players = WR A.J. Green, OLB Vontaze Burfict
Solid Contributors = HB Giovanni Bernard, WR Marvin Jones, RG Kevin Zeitler, RT Andre Smith, DE Carlos Dunlap, CB Leon Hall, CB Adam Jones, FS Reggie Nelson
Impact Rookies = CB Darqueze Dennard (1-24, Michigan State)

Good News = Giovanni Bernard will be the feature back.

Bad News = Andy Dalton is still slated to be their quarterback if they have to play playoff games.

Outlook = Cincinnati has assembled arguably the deepest all around roster in the NFL, with talent at all the skill positions, a solid  offensive line, and a top-5 defense. Expanded workloads for Giovanni Bernard and Marvin Jones will take some defensive attention away from A.J. Green, and should propel the Bengals to even greater heights. The only question is the red head under center. Andy Dalton has been solid during his first three seasons during the regular season. He’s won 30 games in his pro career, and last year tossed a career high 33 touchdowns. Unfortunately, he’s been so atrocious in his three career playoff games, even Tony Romo said, “Man this guy sucks in January” (EDITORS NOTE: Romo didn’t actually say that, but he should’ve). This year boils down to whether or not Dalton delivers the goods in the playoffs. The roster is vastly superior to the rest of the AFC North, so a division title is virtually assured. Dalton only needs to win one elimination game to quiet critics of the mammoth extension he inked this season.

Prediction = We’re guessing the Bengals win 11 games again before Dalton shits his pants again in the playoffs. Is it too early to wager on this? 11-5 

Click here to read about the AFC East

Click here to read about the NFC East
Click here to read about the AFC South
Click here to read about the NFC South
Click here to read about the NFC North
Click here to read about the AFC West

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Weekend (9/20-9/22)

10. Ohio State Wins By 76 Points

9. Louisville Wins By 72 Points
            In other words, it was a rough slate of college football games this weekend.

8. Henrik Stenson Wins Fed-Ex Cup

            Will I be bouncing my grandkids on my knee telling them about the time Henrik Stenson won the 2013 Fed-Ex Cup (for those not in the know, that’s some weird golf trophy the PGA made up after NASCAR created The Chase. For those not in the know about that, The Chase was NASCAR’s attempt to create a playoff system, even though 30 other cars that aren’t competing for the title are still on the track at the same time. We’ll invite the Jaguars to the Super Bowl this year and see how that works out. I’m ending this rant now)? No, but assuming Stenson is from Sweden, I’m happy for him. I don’t know what that means, but I needed to fill some space in the blog this week, so there you go.

7. Matt Kenseth Wins Second Straight to Open Chase
            Historically awful when racing in the woods of New Hampshire, Kenseth surged to the front during the final 100 miles. Kyle Busch came home second again to give Joe Gibbs another 1-2 finish.

6. Colts Manhandle 49ers

            I genuinely don’t know what to make of San Francisco’s listless performance against Indianapolis. They’ll have to right the ship quickly before their Thursday night date in St. Louis.

5. Redskins Lose Again at Home
4. Carolina Humiliates New York 38-0
            Not since the mid-90s have Dallas Cowboys fans had the pleasure of their two most hated rivals sucking so much at the same time. Washington couldn’t stop a Swiss army, while the Giants looked completely lost.

3. Jon Jones Survives UFC 165

            He’d never been taken down in the octagon, but Alexander Gustafsson was able to beat and batter the Light Heavyweight champ. Jon Jones won a lot of fans back into his corner after the backlash from bailing out on a pay-per-view event a year ago.

2. Cleveland Browns Destroy Suicide Pools Everywhere, Shock Vikings

            Logically, Cleveland had no chance of winning in the Metrodome, but as despised ESPN anchor Chris Berman would say, “THAT’S WHY THEY PLAY THE GAME.”

1. Bengals Win Back and Forth Struggle Over Green Bay

            It wasn’t always pretty, but Cincinnati firmly established itself as the second best team in the AFC with it’s rousing victory over the Packers. Even former No Credentials whipping boy Terrance Newman had a moment of glory when he ran back the game-winning fumble return.

2013 AFC North Preview

         We turn our attention to the AFC North, a.k.a. the only division that might be worse than the AFC East.

4. Cleveland Browns

 

2012 Record = 5-11, fourth in AFC North

2013 Schedule = Dolphins, @ Ravens, @ Vikings, Bengals, Bills, Lions, @ Packers, @ Chiefs, Ravens, BYE, @ Bengals, Steelers, Jaguars, @ Patriots, Bears, @ Jets, @ Steelers

Franchise Players = RB Trent Richardson, LT Joe Thomas, C Alex Mack, CB Joe Haden

Supporting Cast = WR Josh Gordon, LG Jason Pinkston, DE Ahtyba Rubin, DT Phil Taylor, MLB D’Qwell Jackson, OLB Paul Kruger, SS T.J. Ward
Notable Rookies = OLB Barkevious Mingo (LSU, 1-6), CB Leon McFadden (San Diego St., 3-68)

Offensive Outlook = It feels like a waste of time talking about an offense who’s second year quarterback is 29-years old, but in the interest of maintaining continuity, we’ll do it anyway. Trent Richardson is the centerpiece of the offense, and with Norv Turner taking over as offensive coordinator, Richardson will be sure to see a massive workload. Injuries have already hit the offensive line, so that is a concern for Richardson’s overall production. Cleveland has an interesting (that’s a better adjective than inexperienced) group of receivers that bring different skill sets to the table. Josh Gordon established himself as a quality deep threat, and is the clear #1 receiver. Greg Little has shown flashes as a third down target, but doesn’t utilize his size enough in the red zone. Davone Bess was acquired in a trade with Miami and figures to be heavily targeted on third down. Travis Benjamin is another speedy receiver who can work out of the slot, and tight end Jordan Cameron is a deep fantasy sleeper. An average quarterback could utilize all of these weapons, but unfortunately Brandon Weeden is still on top of the depth chart. Weeden. Weeden has a big arm, but isn’t effective enough when he’s forced to his second or third read.
Defensive Outlook = Cleveland’s run defense was solid, but it’s secondary play was abysmal. Part of their issues have to do with Joe Haden missing five games last season (four of them because of a suspension). Haden has the skills to be a top-5 corner in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, but needs to make more plays. Paul Kruger (the leader in sacks for the Super Bowl champions last year) and rookie Barkevious Mingo have been brought in to bolster a pass rush that was virtually non-existent last year. Upping the quarterback pressure will go along way in improving the pass defense. 

Ceiling = 7-9 

Floor = 2-14
Prediction = 4-12
            Cleveland has assembled some nice young pieces, but until it has a solid quarterback prospect in the fold, there’s littler reason for optimism.
 

3. Pittsburgh Steelers

 

2012 Record = 8-8, third in AFC North

2013 Schedule = Titans, @ Bengals, Bears, @ Vikings, BYE, @ Jets, Ravens, @ Raiders, @ Patriots, Bills, Lions, @ Browns, @ Ravens, Dolphins, Bengals, @ Packers, Browns

Franchise Players = QB Ben Roethlisberger, C Maurkice Pouncey, SS Troy Polamalu

Supporting Cast = WR Antonio Brown, TE Heath Miller (on PUP list through Week 6), DE Brett Keisel, MLB Lawrence Timmons, MLB Larry Foote, OLD LaMarr Woodley, OLB Jason Worilds, CB Ike Taylor, FS Ryan Clark
Notable Rookies = OLB Jarvis Jones (Georgia, 1-17), RB Le’Veon Bell (Michigan St., 2-48), WR Markus Wheaton (Oregon St., 3-79), QB Landry Jones (Oklahoma, 4-115)

Offensive Outlook = On paper, Pittsburgh suffered the biggest free agent defection of the off-season with the loss of Mike Wallace. He was a field stretching threat that demanded attention on every snap. However, the Steelers do have some players with the potential to at least partially fill the void. Antonio Brown dealt with nagging injuries throughout the 2012 season, but a return to health could lead to Reggie Wayne like production for him. Emmanuel Sanders is slated to get the first crack to fill the deep threat role, but he hasn’t demonstrated in the past that he’s capable of doing it. Pittsburgh might eventually turn to third round pick Markus Wheaton, who on paper looks like a Mike Wallace clone. Pittsburgh’s running game was a mess that season, but it was hard to pinpoint if that had to with the runningbacks, the offensive line, or both groups. Second rounder Le’Veon Bell had a leg up to get the starting tailback gig, and he would’ve represented a massive upgrade over Jonathan Dwyer. Unfortunately, he’s now out for six to eight weeks. David DeCastro, last year’s first round pick, looks to rebound from a 2012 that was cut way to short by injury. He has the potential to form one of the best interior line duos with center Maurkice Pouncey. All of these adjustments will ultimately impact the effectiveness of Ben Roethlisberger. It’s unclear how much more of a beating Big Ben can take, so improved offensive line play is paramount to Pittsburgh’s chances of making the playoffs.

Defensive Outlook = Pittsburgh led the league in total defense last year, only allowing 275.8 yards per game. Unfortunately, the Steelers were unable to force turnovers. For the defense to return to the level of its last Super Bowl year in 2008-09, they will need to create game changing plays. The linebacking core is still the strength of the team, with arguably as much depth as any other team. LaMarr Woodley, Jason Worilds, and Jarvis Jones are three dynamic outside linebackers that can create havoc for opposing quarterbacks. If Cortez Allen continues to make strides, Pittsburgh will have the best cornerback duo in the division. They already have the best safety duo, even with Troy Polamalu losing a step. The biggest question mark for the Steelers defense is nose tackle. Casey Hampton has manned that position for years, but this year he will be replaced by Steve McClendon. McClendon doesn’t have the size that is normally required for a 3-4 end, so hopefully for Pittsburgh fans he’s the second coming of Jay Ratliff.

Ceiling = 12-4

Floor = 5-11
Prediction = 7-9
            Pittsburgh is in a state of transition, so it’s reasonable to expect growing pains. Look for another mediocre season before a return to Super Bowl contention in 2014.
 

2. Baltimore Ravens

 

2012 Record = 10-6, first in AFC North

2013 Schedule = @ Broncos, Browns, Texans, @ Bills, @ Dolphins, Packers, @ Steelers, BYE, @ Browns, Bengals, @ Bears, Jets, Steelers, Vikings, @ Lions, Patriots, @ Bengals

Franchise Players = QB Joe Flacco, RB Ray Rice, RG Marshal Yanda, DE Haloti Ngata, OLB Terrell Suggs

Supporting Cast = WR Torrey Smith, WR/KR Jacoby Jones, TE Dennis Pitta (Out for the season with a hip injury), RT Michael Oher, OLB Elvis Dumervil, CB Lardarius Webb, K Justin Tucker
Notable Rookies = SS Matt Elam (Florida, 1-32), OLB Arthur Brown (Kansas St., 2-56)

Offensive Outlook = It’s hard to remember a defending Super Bowl champion that lost so many key players, but at least offensively the most important ones return. Joe Flacco played like a Greek God of quarterbacking last postseason, but it’s hard to forecast that effort continuing into the regular season. He’s solid, but the offense is at its best when it’s centered on Ray Rice. Rice is still a dynamic player (view his epic fourth and 28 conversion last year against San Diego as proof) that can carry an offense. Bernard Pierce made great impressions in a reserve role, and could be in line for increased carries. With the losses of Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta, Torrey Smith will have to shoulder a heavier workload. He’s an elite route runner, which gives him a chance to transition from deep threat to primary receiver. Who ends up getting receptions other than Ray Rice or Smith is anyone’s guess.

Defensive Outlook = When’s the last time a defense lost two first ballot Hall of Famers in the same off-season? Sure Ray Lewis would probably have been suspended for steroids probably have lost a step if he came back, and Ed Reed has lost some of his range, but these were both emotional leaders of the Ravens defense for a long time. Add in the losses of Paul Kruger and Dannell Ellerbe, and you appear to have a dramatic drop in talent on the Ravens defense. Fortunately, the cupboard isn’t bare. Terrell Suggs should be back close to full strength, and Chris Canty and Marcus Spears have been added to bolster the run defense. Terrance Cody and Haloti Ngata are also still in the fold. Elvis Dumervil has been added and will fill the void left by Kruger. He’s a superior pass rusher, but isn’t the same all around defender. Jameel McClain will start in place of Ray Lewis. Physically there won’t be a drop off (throw out the deer antler fueled playoff run for Lewis), but it’ll hard to quantify what the drop off in leadership will do to the defense. Lardarius Webb will make a comeback from a torn ACL, which will give Baltimore a shutdown corner.

Ceiling = 13-3

Floor = 6-10
Prediction = 9-7
            It would be easy to predict a significant drop-off because of the players who won’t be returning, and just as easy to predict another Super Bowl contending run because they are the Ravens and that’s what they do. We’ll predict that they’ll scuffle a bit early before rounding into form by December.      
 

1. Cincinnati Bengals

 

2012 Record = 10-6, second in AFC North 

2013 Schedule = @ Bears, Steelers, Packers, @ Browns, Patriots, @ Bills, @ Lions, Jets, @ Dolphins, @ Ravens, Browns, BYE, @ Chargers, Colts, @ Steelers, Vikings, Ravens

Franchise Players = WR A.J. Green, LT Andrew Whitworth, DT Geno Atkins

Supporting Cast = QB Andy Dalton, RB Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis, TE Jermaine Gresham, RG Kevin Zeitler, DT Domata Peko, DE Michael Johnson, MLB Rey Maualuga, OLB James Harrison, OLB Vontaze Burfict, CB Leon Hall, FS Reggie Nelson, P Kevin Huber
Notable Rookies = TE Tyler Eifert (Notre Dame, 1-21), RB Giovani Bernard (North Carolina, 2-37), DE Margus Hunt (Southern Methodist, 2-53)

Offensive Outlook = We’re pretty sure the Cincinnati Bengals are the first team since the merger to make the playoffs two straight seasons with a redheaded quarterback. Unfortunately, each playoff appearance ended with a beating in Houston. Andy Dalton has chemistry with A.J. Green (it would be hard for any NFL caliber quarterback to not be successful throwing the ball to him), but he hasn’t been effective enough when he’s forced to his second or third read. Green is a top-5 wide receiver who demands double coverage on every play. The Bengals attempted to ease the pressure on Green by adding Tyler Eifert in the first round. Along with Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati will now have the best tight end duo in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. “The Firm” is still penciled in as the starting runningback, but it will be hard for Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis to not cede carries to talented rookie Giovani Bernard. If Bernard gets enough touches, he’s a solid bet for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Much like the rest of the offense (with the exception of Green), the offensive line is average. 

Defensive Outlook = There weren’t many defenses stronger down the stretch last season than the one employed by Cincinnati. Including their playoff loss to Houston, Cincinnati didn’t allow more than 20 points over their final nine games. Defensive tackle Geno Atkins was at the center of it, generating 12.5 sacks and providing stout run defense. Domata Peko and Michael Johnson were fantastic complimentary pieces to Atkins along the defensive line. Cincinnati struck gold last season with undrafted free agent Vontaze Burfict, who shockingly led the Bengals in tackles a season ago. The secondary will get a boost from having a fully healthy Leon Hall at corner from the start of Week 1. He was recovering from an ACL tear and wasn’t playing up to his usual standards until the final month of the season.

Ceiling = 14-2

Floor = 8-8
Prediction = 11-5
            We’re counting on a breakout from Bernard, and a consistent season of top-5 defense. The Bengals mediocre quarterback won’t bite them in the ass until the playoffs.
 

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2012 AFC North Preview

     Here's the AFC North, aka "Two Old Teams, One Young One, and Another Crappy One, and a Pizza Place".

4. Cleveland Browns

2011 Record = 4-12, Last in AFC North

2012 Schedule = PHI, @ CIN, BUF, @ BAL, @ NYG, CIN, @ IND, SD, BAL, BYE, @ DAL, PIT, @ OAK, KC, WAS, @ DEN, @ PIT

Franchise Players = T Joe Thomas, CB Joe Haden

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = None
Potential Impact Rookies = RB Trent Richardson (Alabama) 1-3, QB Brandon Weeden (Oklahoma State) 1-22, T Mitchell Schwartz (California) 2-5

Outlook = If you’re wondering how the Brandon Weeden era will work out in Cleveland, look up how the Carolina Panthers did with Chris Weinke under center.

Ceiling = 5-11

Floor = 1-15
No Credentials Prediction = 3-13

3. Baltimore Ravens

2011 Record = 12-4, First in AFC North, Lost in AFC Championship Game

2012 Schedule = CIN, @ PHI, NE, CLE, @ KC, DAL, @ HOU, BYE, @ CLE, OAK, @ PIT, @ SD, PIT, @ WAS, DEN, NYG, @ CIN

Franchise Players = QB Joe Flacco, RB Ray Rice, WR Torrey Smith, T Michael Oher, C Matt Birk, DT Haloti Ngata, LB Terrell Suggs, LB Ray Lewis, S Ed Reed

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = G Bobbie Williams
Potential Impact Rookies = DE Courtney Upshaw (Alabama) 2-3

Outlook = The video above is the reason I’m so down on the Ravens this year. I don’t see this team rebounding from such a disappointing defeat. Sure there are still Hall of Famers on defense, but they are aging (watch Ray Lewis move laterally. He’s not as graceful as he used to be), and Joe Flacco doesn’t inspire much confidence at all. A breakout from him in his fifth season seems unlikely. It’s much more probable that he is what he has been the past two seasons, which is an average quarterback that can manage a game but do very little to win one. This becomes a problem when the Ravens decide to throw the ball 50 times in the game and forget to hand the ball to Ray Rice (who you know, is only the best all-around runningback on planet Earth right now). Throw in a brutal schedule (even though two of their first three are at home, they won’t be cakewalks), and you have all the makings for a disappointing year of football in Baltimore.

Ceiling = 12-4

Floor = 6-10
No Credentials Prediction = 8-8

2. Cincinnati Bengals

2011 Record = 9-7, Third in AFC North, Lost in AFC Wildcard Game

2012 Schedule = @ BAL, CLE, @ WAS, @ JAC, MIA, @ CLE, PIT, BYE, DEN, NYG, @ KC, OAK, @ SD, DAL, @ PIT, @ PHI, BAL

Franchise Players = QB Andy Dalton, WR A.J. Green, T Andre Smith, DE Carlos Dunlap, LB Rey Maualuga, LB Manny Lawson, CB Leon Hall, S Reggie Nelson

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, CB Jason Allen, CB Terrance Newman
Potential Impact Rookies = CB Dre Kirkpatrick (Alabama) 1-17, G Kevin Zeitler (Wisconsin) 1-27, DT Devon Still (Penn State) 2-21, DT Brandon Thompson (Clemson) 3-30

Outlook = Not a lot of teams had as successful of a draft as the Bengals, which is hard to believe because they are the Bengals. Their fleecing of Oakland in the Carson Palmer enhanced an already talented young roster. A.J. Green appears to be on the verge of becoming a top-5 wide receiver, and Andy Dalton could go down as the best second round draft pick of the ‘10s. With their patty-cake stretch from weeks 2 through 6 (two games against the Browns, trips to Washington and Jacksonville, and a home date with Miami), and we could very easily be talking about a 5-1 or 6-0 football team when they face Pittsburgh at home in Week 7. That’s the cushion they will need to withstand a tougher second half slate.

Ceiling = 12-4

Floor = 6-10
No Credentials Prediction = 9-7
 

1. Pittsburgh Steelers

 

2011 Record = 12-4, Second in AFC North, Lost in AFC Wildcard Game

2012 Schedule = @ DEN, NYJ, @ OAK, BYE, PHI, @ TEN, @ CIN, WAS, @ NYG, KC, BAL, @ CLE, @ BAL, SD, @ DAL, CIN, CLE

Franchise Players = QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB Rashard Mendenhall, WR Mike Wallace, WR Antonio Brown, TE Heath Miller, C Maurkice Pouncey, LB James Harrison, LB LaMarr Woodley, LB Lawrence Timmons, S Troy Polamalu

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = None
Potential Impact Rookies = G David DeCastro (Stanford) 1-24, T Mike Adams (Ohio State) 2-24, DT Alameda Ta’amu (Washington) 4-14

Outlook = Pittsburgh’s draft haul may not be as impressive as Cincinnati’s but David DeCastro and Mike Adams should go along way in keeping Ben Roethlisberger upright. With added time in the pocket, the dynamic duo of Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown (here’s your dark horse pick for best receiving tandem in the NFL this year) will be even more lethal than they were a year ago. Expect the Steelers to ensure that they won’t start the playoffs on the road this January.

Ceiling = 13-3

Floor = 7-9
No Credentials Prediction = 11-5
 

Click here to read about the AFC East
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Click here to read about the AFC West
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Click here to read about the NFC West

Steelers-Browns, Plus Bonus NHL Picks

Browns (+14) over STEELERS
Pittsburgh has played down to the level of a couple of teams this season (Jacksonville at home in Week 6, both Indianapolis and Kansas City on the road), and I forsee a similar situation tonight. Pittsburgh is going to win, but it won't be pretty (or convincing).

Pittsburgh 20, Cleveland 10
Confidence Score = 6

Now on to my newest gambling endeavor...NHL parlays!

After two miserable parlays on Monday (three of the four teams I picked lost. Ouch), I scored my first career NHL parlay victory with of all combos, the Winnipeg Jets and Calgary Flames Tuesday night. Amazingly, I wasn't struck by lightning today because of this. Here is a couple of combinations I may have put together (and wagered on) for tonights action (because you know, I'm 1-2 doing these, so clearly I'm an expert).

Panthers (+170) over BRUINS
DEVILS (-140) over Senators

I'm not sure how Boston will respond after Tyler Seguin makes his return from his one game benching, and Ottawa was the only team on tonight's slate that played last night. Bet $5.00 to potentially turn it into $23.14.

Coyotes (+140) over RED WINGS
RANGERS (-165) over Lightning

Phoenix always gives Detroit problems, and they actually play better on the road (9-4-1) then at home (I guess that isn't too shocking, because roughly 36 people give a shit about hockey in the state of Arizona). As for the Rangers, they are playing a crappy Lightning team. $5.00 could morph into $19.27 if both these teams win.

As always, I highly advise all of you to find your local bookie and wager on the exact opposite. We'll briefly discuss how bad these two hockey bets were before the Week 14 NFL picks. 

2011 AFC North Preview

This is our first division that gets to play the entire NFC West. Blame inflated win projections for the top three teams on that.

4. Cincinnati Bengals

2010 Record = 4-12, 4^th in Division

Key Additions = LB Manny Lawson, CB Nate Clements
Key Losses = QB Carson Palmer, WR Chad Ochocinco, WR Terrell Owens, CB Johnathan Joseph

Schedule = @ Browns, @ Broncos, 49ers, Bills, @ Jaguars, Colts, BYE, @ Seahawks, @ Titans, Steelers, @ Ravens, Browns, @ Steelers, Texans, @ Rams, Cardinals, Ravens

Real-Life Outlook = I don’t know exactly what the record is for teams that started a red-headed rookie at quarterback, but I feel like it’s probably not very good. Kudos to the folks down in Cincinnati for completely overturning the roster (except for the part where they haven’t moved Carson Palmer yet. Wouldn’t a couple of draft picks be worth more than quarterback who has no intention of playing for you ever again? Palmer’s value will only drop the longer he doesn’t play. Remember this when the Seahawks trade a sixth round pick for Palmer next season). The great Liam Neeson said in “Batman Begins”, “When a forest grows out of control, a purging fire is natural and necessary.” That quote definitely applies here. Cincinnati is going to be awful this season, but things are looking up for them.

Fantasy Outlook = Rookie wide receiver A.J. Green has the most potential of any Bengals players, but fellow rookie Andy Dalton (and his red hair) will hold Green back from being a fantasy monster this season. Green is currently ranked 31^st by the fantasy experts at ESPN, which makes him a fringe #3 receiver or bye-week sub (depending on the size of your league). Cedric Benson is coming off an eventful off-season, but should be drafted by the ninth round as a third RB option. Tight end Jermaine Gresham shouldn’t be drafted, but monitor his performance the first couple of weeks to see if he clicks with Dalton. Rookie quarterbacks usually look for tight ends, so Gresham could be a solid PPR option. 

Ceiling = 6-10

Floor = 0-16
No Credentials Prediction = 2-14

3. Cleveland Browns

2010 Record = 5-11, 3^rd in Division

Key Additions = None
Key Losses = DE Matt Roth, CB Eric Wright, S Abram Elam

Schedule = Bengals, @ Colts, Dolphins, Titans, BYE, @ Raiders, Seahawks, @ 49ers, @ Texans, Rams, Jaguars, @ Bengals, Ravens, @ Steelers, @ Cardinals, @ Ravens, Steelers

Real-Life Outlook = Remember when Cleveland smashed New England last year during the first week of November just two weeks after winning in New Orleans? Somehow this team only won three other games the rest of the season. It would’ve been very easy for Cleveland to take Julio Jones with the fifth pick in the draft to give Colt McCoy a viable wide receiver, but I like how Cleveland shipped the pick to Atlanta for five extra draft picks. With Mike Holmgren running the show, Browns’ fans should have confidence that those picks will be used well. Look for Cleveland to be in a good place in 2014.

            With all that said, did you look at their schedule? Of their first eleven games, I’d give them at least a 40% chance of winning ten of them (their trip to Indianapolis being the one they’ll be heavy underdogs in). I could definitely see them starting the year 7-4 before losing their final five games (they play Baltimore and Pittsburgh twice during this stretch, with a trip to Arizona stuck in the middle). To make a long story short, if you want to bet the over on Cleveland’s regular season win total (on Sportsbook.com, their over/under is 6.5), you have No Credentials full endorsement.     
Fantasy Outlook = It’s not smart to talk about Peyton Hillis before we discuss The Madden Curse. For those not in the know, this has to do with the Madden video game that comes out every year. Ever since players were first placed on the cover, it’s been misfortune for whoever was pictured. Here’s a list of what the curse has done in 12 years. 

The Madden Curse took away any lateral agility Eddie George ever had.

The Madden Curse allowed Daunte Culpepper to set the record for most fumbles lost in a single season during the 2001 campaign. Then for good measure, The Madden Curse shredded both of his knees in 2005 and ’06.

The Madden Curse ended Marshall Faulk’s string of 1,000+ yard-rushing seasons. He retired two years after appearing on the cover in 2002.

The Madden Curse snapped Michael Vick’s leg in half during the 2003 pre-season.

The Madden Curse broke Ray Lewis’ wrist.

The Madden Curse first inflicted a sports hernia on Donovan McNabb, and then as a finishing move, tore his ACL.

The Madden Curse injured Shaun Alexander’s foot, causing him to miss six games the year after he won the league MVP.

The Madden Curse is responsible for Vince Young’s career missteps since his rookie year (if I typed everything that’s happened to him, this post would be an extra 1,500 words).

The Madden Curse coerced Brett Favre into sending a picture of his penis to Jenn Sterger.

The Madden Curse sprained Troy Polamalu’s MCL in the first game of the 2009 season, and then knocked him out of action again with a PCL injury. It’s interesting to note that Larry Fitzgerald was also on the cover with Polamalu that year, but survived. Apparently The Madden Curse can only knock out one player per season.

Finally, The Madden Curse forced Drew Brees to throw a career high 22 interceptions.

            More than anything else, his presence on the cover of “Madden NFL 12” alone is reason for me to avoid Peyton Hillis. It’s not logical, but I’m not betting against a curse until someone is on the cover and wins the Super Bowl the same season.

            To get back to the business of relevant fantasy advice, tight end Kellen Winslow is the only other Brown that should be drafted. He’s another solid late-round option at that position.

Ceiling = 10-6

Floor = 6-10
No Credentials Prediction = 8-8

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

2010 Record = 12-4, 1^st in Division (Lost Super Bowl vs. Packers)

Key Additions = None
Key Losses = None

Schedule = @ Ravens, Seahawks, @ Colts, @ Texans, Titans, Jaguars, @ Cardinals, Patriots, Ravens, @ Bengals, BYE, @ Chiefs, Bengals, Browns, @ 49ers, Rams, @ Browns

Real-Life Outlook = In the season immediately following Pittsburgh’s previous Super Bowl victories, they have failed to make the playoffs the following year. Perhaps coming off of a loss will make them a little less content, but I still think there will be speed bumps for them that will prevent Pittsburgh from winning the North. Maybe a weird home loss against Tennessee or Jacksonville sandwiched between odd road losses at Houston and Arizona. Despite the prediction of an uneven start, Pittsburgh easily has the weakest opposing schedule of any 2010 division winner. Barring significant injuries, there is no way they should lose any of their last five games. The weak schedule should be enough for Pittsburgh to land at least an AFC Wildcard spot.

Fantasy Outlook = Ben Roethlisberger will be either the 8^th or 9^th quarterback taken in your fantasy draft. You’re going to want to draft a decent back up, as Big Ben is prone to holding on to the ball to long and taking a beating. Rashard Mendenhall is a late first or early second round pick at runningback. I have a hunch that Pittsburgh is going to run the ball more this season, and wouldn’t be surprised to see Mendenhall finish with 1,500 rushing yards. Mike Wallace is the AFC’s answer to DeSean Jackson. With Hines Ward getting older (and slower), expect Wallace to set a new career high in receptions. Ward is a fringe #3 in a 12-team league, but probably should be the fourth or fifth wide out you draft. Pittsburgh is one of the few fantasy defenses that you will be able to start every week of the season. 

Ceiling = 14-2

Floor = 9-7
No Credentials Prediction = 11-5

1. Baltimore Ravens

2010 Record = 12-4, 2^nd in Division (Lost in Divisional Round @ Steelers)

Key Additions = WR Lee Evans, FB Vonta Leach, S Bernard Pollard, RB Ricky Williams
Key Losses = RB Willis McGahee, T Jared Gaither, CB Josh Wilson, S Dawan Landry, TE Todd Heap

Schedule = Steelers, @ Titans, @ Rams, Jets, BYE, Texans, @ Jaguars, Cardinals, @ Steelers, @ Seahawks, Bengals, 49ers, @ Browns, Colts, @ Chargers, Browns, @ Bengals

Real-Life Outlook = The addition of Lee Evans makes a huge difference for the Ravens offense. While he isn’t as dynamic as Mike Wallace, he still is the first legitimate deep threat Baltimore has had since the team moved to Baltimore in 1996. If Flacco and Evans click early, running lanes will open up for Ray Rice, and underneath patterns will be more accessible for Anquan Boldin. Baltimore’s secondary was leaky last season, but an improved offense will allow them to play with the lead more often. With their front seven able to pin their ears back and attack opposing quarterbacks, Baltimore should bounce back as a top-5 defensive unit. 

Fantasy Outlook = It’s not all that often that a fullback is discussed in terms of fantasy, but that’s what I’m going to do here in relation to runningback Ray Rice. Baltimore was able to sign former Texans fullback Vonta Leach. Avid fantasy players may recall that Leach was Arian Foster’s lead blocker last season. Foster also just happened to be the top scoring player in fantasy football last season. It isn’t out of the realm of possibility that Rice gets a bump with a better fullback (and better offensive line play). If you can get him at any point after the sixth pick in your draft, you’ll be very fortunate.
            None of the other Ravens are elite fantasy options. Joe Flacco was a sleeper last season, but his disappointing 2010 drops him to the 15^th ranked quarterback on Yahoo!. It would be best to use him in a platoon situation, or as a back-up to Michael Vick or Tony Romo. Anquan Boldin got off to hot start, but disappeared during the final four games of 2010 (only 8 receptions for 67 yards during the fantasy playoffs). The presence of Lee Evans should help a bit, but keep in mind that last season was only the third time in Boldin’s career that he appeared in all sixteen games. Lee Evans should be drafted as a back-up only. His addition to the team will help the offense, but don’t expect Evans to have a monster season.

Ceiling = 14-2

Floor = 10-6
No Credentials Prediction = 12-4


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