2015 Week 6 NFL Picks

BROWNS (+4.5) over Broncos

            Cleveland’s defense is good enough to keep this a low scoring affair.

Bengals (-3) over BILLS

            In E.J. Manuel we do not trust.

VIKINGS (-4) over Chiefs

            This is a pivotal game if Minnesota intends to secure a wildcard spot in the NFC.

JAGUARS (-2) over Texans

            No J.J. Watt spells trouble against the surprisingly spunky Jaguars passing attack.

LIONS (-3.5) over Bears

            It’s hard to back Detroit after their stink bomb they laid last Sunday, but one needs to remember that was only six days after they should’ve had first and goal on the one-yard line at Seattle.

Washington (+7) over JETS

            This pick is based solely on our belief that the NFC is the superior conference.

Cardinals (-4.5) over STEELERS

            The funkiest game on the Week 6 slate.

Dolphins (+2) over TITANS

            We like the upgrade from Joe Philbin to literally any other human being on planet Earth.

Panthers (+7) over SEAHAWKS

            Both clubs may have trouble combining to score seven points.

PACKERS (-10.5) over Chargers

            Scoring won’t be an issue here, but we like Green Bay in a rout after San Diego gave a win away against a washed up Michael Vick.

Ravens (-2) over 49ERS

            I honestly have no idea how to pick this game. Normally we say take the points, but our picks have been so awful the past couple of weeks we’re veering the other way.

Patriots (-10) over COLTS

            REVENGE!

EAGLES (-4.5) over Giants

            Another case of us veering against our default choice of taking the points.

 

Week 5 = 7-6-1

Thursday =0-1

Season = 36-39-3

Spread Picks By Team

Packers = 5-0

Vikings = 4-0

Patriots = 3-0-1

Lions = 4-1

Titans = 3-1

Seahawks = 3-1-1

Washington = 3-2

Rams = 3-2

49ers = 3-2

Chiefs = 3-2

Colts = 3-2

Jaguars = 3-2

Broncos = 3-2

Falcons = 3-3

Texans = 2-2

Browns = 2-3

Eagles = 2-3

Giants = 2-3

Bears = 2-3

Chargers = 2-3

Bills = 2-3

Cowboys = 2-3

Steelers = 1-2-2

Bengals = 1-3-1

Dolphins = 1-3

Jets = 1-3

Raiders = 1-4

Buccaneers = 1-4

Cardinals = 1-4

Ravens = 0-4-1

Panthers = 0-4

Saints = 0-6

2015 Week 5 NFL Picks

            Didn’t have time to type up a full write-up, so here are some quick picks. We’ll be back next week with a more detailed explanation of our mediocre predictions.

BUCCANEERS (-2) over Jaguars

Bills (-1) over TITANS

RAVENS (-6.5) over Browns

FALCONS (-7) over Washington

CHIEFS (-9) over Bears

Saints (+6) over EAGLES

Rams (+9) over PACKERS

Seahawks (+3) over BENGALS

Cardinals (-3.5) over LIONS

Patriots (-9.5) over COWBOYS

Broncos (-4.5) over RAIDERS

GIANTS (-7) over 49ers

CHARGERS (-3.5) over Steelers

Week 5 NFL Picks

            We’re making an announcement…if we don’t finish above .500 this week, we are retiring from NFL picks this season. No Credentials clearly has no firm grasp of what is going to happen in any of these games, so unless there’s a swift turnaround, we don’t see any reason to try to sucker people into thinking we are making quality picks. Sometimes, you have to know when you don’t have it. With that said, we tried really hard this week (which translates to about 5 minutes of deep thought), and with the momentum from the Packers victory Thursday, could be in line for a break through.

Bears (+2) over PANTHERS

            These two teams are the epitome of the “WHAT THE FUCK IS GOING ON IN THE NFL THIS YEAR?” phenomenon. For what it’s worth, the Bears are 2-0 on the road this year.

Browns (+1) over TITANS

            Tennessee should not be favored against anyone in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. We’re taking Cleveland and the one point out of principle.

EAGLES (-7) over Rams

            Here’s a combination of “Philly is due to pummel someone” and “St. Louis has looked competent for two straight games”.

Falcons (+4.5) over GIANTS

            Folks are overreacting to New York’s two game winning streak. One needs to remember that their wins came against the Texans without Arian Foster and a Washington team whose only claim to fame was destroying Jacksonville. Pump the brakes Giants fans. 

Buccaneers (+10) over SAINTS

            Another principle pick…there’s no way the Saints should be double-digit favorites over anyone. Tampa Bay also has a history of playing the Saints tough, even when New Orleans has been playing well.

Texans (+6.5) over COWBOYS

            We’ve picked against Dallas every week this year, and that’s translated to their first 3-1 start in six years. Since clearly the success of my picks is hopeless, at least we can try to keep the good vibes going with Tony Romo and company.

LIONS (-7) over Bills

            “GOOD GOD, THAT’S KYLE ORTON’S MUSIC!!!”

COLTS (-3.5) over Ravens

            I like Andrew the Giant to drag the Colts over .500 for the first time this year.

Steelers (-6.5) over JAGUARS

            I mean, the Steelers can’t lose to Tampa Bay and Jacksonville back-to-back weeks right?

Cardinals (+8) over BRONCOS

            Our third principle pick…this line is too damn high. One of the fun facts of 2014 is Denver being 0-3 so far against the spread.

49ERS (-5.5) over Chiefs

            I’m sure everyone and their third cousin wants to bang the Chiefs as a road dog after there demolishing of the New England Patriots. We aren’t falling for it.

CHARGERS (-7) over Jets

            Tough spot for Geno and the Jets. This line could be 10 points or higher.

Bengals (-1.5) over PATRIOTS

            The standard thing to do here would be to bet on Tom Brady (as a home dog!) in primetime to bounce back, but logic dictates that New England’s mediocre offense will have a really hard time against a well-rested Bengals squad.

Seahawks (-7.5) over REDSKINS

            Kirk Cousins turned into a pumpkin during the third quarter against the Giants in Week 4.

           

Week 3 = 5-11

Thursday = 1-0

Season = 27-40

Week 4 NFL Picks

            After a catastrophic Week 2, we at least managed to go .500 last week. I’d forecast a banner Week 4, but we already blew real cash on the turd sandwich that was Kirk Cousins Thursday night.

  

Dolphins (-3.5) over Raiders (game being played in London)

Packers (-2) over BEARS

Bills (+3) over TEXANS

COLTS (-7.5) over Titans

Panthers (+3.5) over RAVENS

JETS (+2.5) over Lions

STEELERS (-7.5) over Buccaneers

CHARGERS (-13) over Jaguars

49ERS (-4.5) over Eagles

Falcons (-3) over VIKINGS

Saints (-3) over COWBOYS

Patriots (-3) over CHIEFS

           

Week 3 =8-8

Thursday = 0-1

Season = 21-29

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Past Weekend (9/12-9/14)

10. Adrian Peterson Gives NFL Another Black Eye

            Not a whole lot to do here but hope for the health and safety of Peterson’s child.

9. Kyrie Irving Named MVP as United States Wins FIBA World Cup

            Along with his All-Star MVP from last February, that makes two meaningless most valuable player awards Irving has racked up in 2014.

8. The Dallas Cowboys Won’t Go 0-16
            Also noteworthy was the stink bomb Jake Locker dropped for the Titans on Sunday. After Week 1 there was a chance we were going to have to switch which team my son played for in Madden this year, but luckily for him he won’t have to look for a new squad to suit up for.

7. Packers Spot Jets 18 Points, Win Anyway

            Geno Smith was pretty spunky in the first half against Green Bay, but unfortunately he came crashing back to Earth as Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson took over.

6. Boston College Stuns #9 USC

            We would’ve enjoyed this result even more if Lane Kiffin were still the Head Coach of the Trojans.

           

5. South Carolina Survives With Late Goal-Line Stand Against Georgia

            The beauty of the new college football playoff is South Carolina still has hope after getting thumped in their first game against Texas A&M.

4. Chargers Slay Defending Champs

            Despite losing Ryan Matthews and only averaging 2.7 yards per carry as a team on the ground, San Diego still managed to hang onto the ball for 42 minutes and wear out the vaunted Seattle defense. Antonio Gates delivered a vintage performance, matching his career high with three touchdown receptions.

           

3. Brad Keselowski Drives Up the Middle to Win First Race of The Chase

            Bad Brad’s splitting of Kevin Harvick and Kyle Larson to take the lead might go down as the launch point for his second championship. He can take it easy the next two weeks as he’s already advanced to the round of 12.

           

2. Bears Steal a Flag-Fest in San Francisco

            We were about to write off the Bears this year before Brandon Marshall dragged them into the lead in the fourth quarter.

1. Browns Stun Saints With Last Second Field Goal

            Apparently, it’s the same old sorry ass Saints when they have to play on the road. Even though it’s early in the season, this loss probably wipes out any chance they have at securing home field advantage in the NFC.

2014 AFC West Preview

4. Oakland Raiders

2013 Record = 4-12, Last in AFC West, Missed Playoffs

2014 Schedule = @ Jets, Texans, @ Patriots, Dolphins, BYE, Chargers, Cardinals, @ Browns, @ Seahawks, Broncos, @ Chargers, Chiefs, @ Rams, 49ers, @ Chiefs, Bills, @ Broncos

Blue Chippers = None

High Quality Players = FB Marcel Reece

Solid Contributors = WR James Jones, LT Donald Penn, C Stefen Wisniewski, DE LaMarr Woodley, DE Justin Tuck, DT Antonio Smith, CB Tarell Brown, SS Tyvon Branch

Impact Rookies = OLB Khalil Mack (1-5, Buffalo)

Good News = They’ve shed almost all of their dead contracts, giving them salary cap flexibility for the first time since the Jon Gruden era.

Bad News = In an anonymous player poll, Oakland was voted as the least desirable team to play for in the league.

Outlook = If the Raiders didn’t face such a hellacious schedule in 2014, we’d be a little more enthusiastic about their chances to reach .500 this year. As it stands, it’s an improved roster with plenty of long-term flexibility going forward. Matt Schaub was brought in to start the season at quarterback, but don’t be shocked if Derek Carr is the one who finishes it. Carr showed a much higher ceiling during the pre-season before suffering a concussion last Friday against Detroit. Against all odds, Darren McFadden resigned on a one-year prove it deal, and he’ll share carries with Jaguars castoff Maurice Jones-Drew. Perhaps if they start the year splitting carries, maybe one of them will still be healthy at the end of the year. The receiving core is interesting, but we aren’t confident that the current quarterback situation will be able to take advantage of it. James Jones was signed from Green Bay, and he provides a solid deep threat. Rod Streeter hauled in 60 passes last year (a lot of them from Matt McGloin!), and Denarius Moore has shown flashes of big play ability. The Raiders most intriguing offensive player is tight end Mychal Rivera, who after being drafted in the sixth round last year, will get the opportunity for full-time work this year. Oakland’s offensive line will feature four new starters, and the ability of that group to develop chemistry will be the biggest factor in the Raiders being a competent offensive club.

            Defensively is where the Raiders should plan to hang their hat this year, as the majority of their off-season moves were made to improve a unit that gave up the second most points in franchise history. Justin Tuck, LaMarr Woodley, and Antonio Smith were all solid free agent pickups that immediately improve their defense. Tarell Brown and Carlos Rogers were brought over from across the Bay to bolster a defense that was the fifth worst in the NFL. Tyvon Branch only played two games last year, so his return to health will also provide a lift. The linebacking core is the weakest link of the group, with Khalil Mack needing to provide an immediate lift.

Prediction = The record will still stink, but at least the Raiders are moving in the right direction. 4-12

 3. Kansas City Chiefs

2013 Record = 11-5, Second in AFC West, Lost AFC Wildcard Game

2014 Schedule = Titans, @ Broncos, @ Dolphins, Patriots, @ 49ers, BYE, @ Chargers, Rams, Jets, @ Bills, Seahawks, @ Raiders, Broncos, @ Cardinals, Raiders, @ Steelers, Chargers

Blue Chippers = HB Jamaal Charles, DT Dontari Poe

High Quality Players = MLB Derrick Johnson, OLB Justin Houston, OLB Tamba Hali, SS Eric Berry

Solid Contributors = WR Dwayne Bowe, DE Mike DeVito

Impact Rookies = DE Dee Ford (1-23, Auburn)

Good News = Justin Houston and Tamba Hali are healthy to start the season.

Bad News = Can you say regression?

Outlook = Last year, Kansas City parlayed the good fortune of facing one of the weakest schedules in recent memory into a playoff appearance. This year, they aren’t so fortunate. With the exception of their road trip to Oakland, none of their away games are easy on paper. That would make running the table at home almost a requirement if they are to make a playoff push, but with Denver, New England, and Seattle coming to Arrowhead, that is also unlikely. How competitive they are will likely depend on how much star pass rushers Justin Houston and Tamba Hali are on the field. When they are causing havoc, this is one of the elite defensive units in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE.

            The offense should’ve been called “Jamaal Charles and the Kansas City Chiefs” last year, because he literally put the team on his back. Charles led the team in rushing and receiving while piling up a league high 19 total touchdowns. His ability to be effective in the passing game keeps his fantasy value high in spite of the retooled offensive line he’ll be working with this year. Kansas City lost three starters from their line last year, and desperately need Eric Fisher to emerge as a star in his first full season at left tackle. Carolina is the only team in the league that features a more pathetic core of wide receivers, as Dwayne Bowe looked washed up at times in 2013.

Prediction = Kansas City will struggle against the NFC West, which will be the straw that breaks the camel’s back for their playoff hopes. 7-9

2. San Diego Chargers

2013 Record = 9-7, Third in AFC West, Lost AFC Divisional Game

2014 Schedule = @ Cardinals, Seahawks, @ Bills, Jaguars, Jets, @ Raiders, Chiefs, @ Broncos, @ Dolphins, BYE, Raiders, Rams, @ Ravens, Patriots, Broncos, @ 49ers, @ Chiefs

Blue Chippers = FS Eric Weddle

High Quality Players = QB Phillip Rivers, WR Keenan Allen

Solid Contributors = HB Ryan Matthews, HB Danny Woodhead, WR Malcolm Floyd, TE Antonio Gates, LT King Dunlap, C Nick Hardwick, RT D.J. Fluker, OLB Dwight Freeney, CB Brandon Flowers

Impact Rookies = CB Jason Verrett (1-25, TCU), OLB Jerry Attaochu (2-50, Georgia Tech)

Good News = Phillip Rivers has reestablished himself as a true franchise quarterback.

Bad News = San Diego still needs to prove it can be consistent week to week.

Outlook = The Chargers are one of the trendier dark horse picks in the AFC, and for good reason. Only division rival Denver generated more passing yards last year, and San Diego won five of their last six to sneak into the playoffs. The offense should still be very good, with depth across the board at all of the skill positions. If they can incorporate second-string tight end Ladarius Green into the rotation, the offense will become even more potent. Ryan Matthews wasn’t necessarily spectacular, but his surprising run of health provided stability in the running game. Keenan Allen was a sensation upon his insertion into the starting lineup, and should put up monster numbers with the chance to be featured for a full 16 games. Their offensive line was competent for the first time in years, and should take more steps forward with some progression by King Dunlap and D.J. Fluker.

            A porous pass defense is the main reason San Diego had to scratch and claw it’s way into a wildcard spot (they made Chiefs backup Chase McDaniel look like the second coming of Joe Montana in Week 17), but fortunately the Chargers were aggressive in addressing this weakness. Brandon Flowers was signed after he was released by Kansas City, and he will be paired with first round pick Jason Verrett in a rebuilt secondary. Jerry Attaochu will likely need to make a decent impact, because it’s hard to for see Dwight Freeney staying healthy the entire season.     

Prediction = San Diego will sneak up to 10 wins, but they still aren’t quite at Denver’s level yet. 10-6 

1. Denver Broncos

2013 Record = 13-3, AFC West Champions, Lost Super Bowl

2014 Schedule = Colts, Chiefs, @ Seahawks, BYE, Cardinals, @ Jets, 49ers, Chargers, @ Patriots, @ Raiders, @ Rams, Dolphins, @ Chiefs, Bills, @ Chargers, @ Bengals, Raiders

Blue Chippers = QB Peyton Manning, OLB Von Miller

High Quality Players = WR Demaryius Thomas, TE Julius Thomas, LT Ryan Clady, RG Louis Vasquez, DT Terrance Knighton, DE DeMarcus Ware, CB Aqib Talib, CB Chris Harris, SS T.J. Ward

Solid Contributors = WR Wes Welker, LG Orlando Franklin, C Manny Ramirez, OLB Danny Trevathan

Impact Rookies = CB Bradley Roby (1-31, Ohio State), WR Cody Latimer (2-56, Indiana)

Good News = On paper, no team did more to improve it’s defense during the off-season than Denver.

Bad News = They get a Super Bowl rematch in Week 3.

Outlook = After getting obliterated by Seattle in the Super Bowl last February, it’s easy to point out flaws in the Broncos, and even make a case that San Diego could overtake them in their own division. However, when you take a step back and look at the overall landscape in the AFC, it’s easy to see that they are by far the deepest team in the Conference. Ryan Clady’s return will stabilize the entire offensive line, and the addition of DeMarcus Ware provides another elite pass rusher to take some pressure off of Von Miller. What could be the difference if Denver is to win a Super Bowl could be the health of Wes Welker and Chris Harris. Welker has suffered three concussions in the last 10 months, and Harris developed into a shutdown corner before going down with a knee injury in the playoffs.

Prediction = With or without Welker this season, the offense is solid enough to win another AFC West title. 12-4

Click here to read about the AFC East

Click here to read about the NFC East

Click here to read about the AFC South

Click here to read about the NFC South

Click here to read about the AFC North

Click here to read about the NFC North

Sunday NFL Divisional Round Picks

#5 San Francisco 49ers @ #2 Carolina Panthers
            Seahawks-49ers III feels inevitable at this point.

49ers (-1.5) over PANTHERS

#6 San Diego Chargers @ #1 Denver Broncos

            Wes Welker is back, and I’m not putting too much stock into San Diego’s regular season win at Mile High (remember, Thursday night football sucks).

BRONCOS (-8.5) over Chargers

NFL Wildcard Sunday Picks

#6 San Diego Chargers (9-7) @ #3 Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)
            There’s some team of destiny talk being floated around in regards to the Chargers, but we see their destiny ending with a beat down in Cincinnati. Andy Dalton won’t rear his turnover-prone redhead until next week in Foxborough.

BENGALS (-7) over Chargers

 

#5 San Francisco 49ers (12-4) @ #4 Green Bay Packers (8-7-1)

            Aaron Rodgers delivered what will go down as one of the top 5 moments of the 2013 season last week with his fourth and 8 touchdown pass to Randall Cobb, but the bottom line is San Francisco is a vastly superior team. It will take a superhuman effort by Rodgers to earn Green Bay a ticket to the Divisional Round.
 
49ers (-3) over PACKERS

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Weekend (12/27-12/29)

10. Bruins Defenseman Dennis Seidenberg Diagnosed With Torn ACL
            Seidenberg has been one of the unsung heroes of Boston’s Cup-contending teams over the past few years, and will be sorely missed on the blue-line.

9. Andrew Bynum Suspended By Cavaliers

            Bynum showed flashes of his former self in spurts this year, and has one of the friendlier contracts in the NBA. Don’t be shocked if a contender picks him up before the trade deadline.

8. Ronda Rousey Busts Out the Patented Arm Bar Again

            No Credentials hit a new gambling low Saturday night and actually lost money wagering on Miesha Tate.

7. Yaisel Puig Pulled Over Doing 110 MPH
            One wonders if Puig tried to claim that he thought his speedometer was measuring his speed in kilometers.

6. Denver Obliterates More NFL Records

            Peyton Manning pushed the single season touchdown record to 55, while also breaking Drew Brees’ single-season passing yardage record by a single yard. Meanwhile, Denver became the first team in the history of THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE to score more than 600 points in a season. The previous two sentences won’t mean a thing if they choke again in January.

5. Sexy Rex Will Return to Jets’ Sideline in 2014
            We’ve taken quite a few shots at the Jets over the past few seasons, but when you step back and look at their 2013 campaign, it really is amazing that Rex Ryan was able to coach this team to eight wins this year. He earned another season.

4. Anderson Silva Breaks His Leg, Chris Weidman Defends Title

            In what was one of the more gruesome UFC injuries in recent memory, we likely have seen the last of Anderson Silva.

3. San Diego Rallies to Make Postseason

            After being given a golden oppurtunity with Baltimore and Miami losing earlier in the day, San Diego almost lost to Kansas City’s backup team. We don’t like their chances in round 1 at Cincinnati.
         
2. Kyle Orton Does Best Tony Romo Impersonation
            Naturally, a late interception spelled doom for the Dallas Cowboys. Apparently it doesn’t matter who’s under center.

1. Aaron Rodgers Returns, Leads to Packers to NFC North Title

            Rodgers had to shake off a ton of rust, but made one of the most dramatic plays of the season with his 4^th and 9, 48-yard touchdown pass to Randall Cobb.

Week 13 NFL Picks

     For the second straight week we didn't have a ton of time for our NFL picks, but perhaps not overthinking it will be a blessing.

COLTS (-4) over Titans
BROWNS (-7) over Jaguars
Buccaneers (+7) over PANTHERS
Bears (-1) over VIKINGS
Cardinals (+3) over EAGLES
JETS (-2.5) over Dolphins
Patriots (-8.5) over TEXANS
Bills (-3.5) over Falcons
49ERS (-8) over Rams
CHIEFS (+6.5) over Broncos
CHARGERS (-1) over Bengals
Giants (-1.5) over REDSKINS
Saints (+5) over SEAHAWKS

Last Week = 7-7
Season = 88-80-7
Thursday = 2-1

Week 10 NFL Picks

0-8 Jacksonville Jaguars @ 4-4 Tennessee Titans (-12.5)
            True story…Tennessee is undefeated against the spread when Jake Locker starts.

TITANS (-12.5) over Jaguars

 

4-5 Philadelphia Eagles @ 5-3 Green Bay Packers (-1)

            Based on our mid-season power rankings, Philadelphia has beaten the 22^nd, 23^rd, 29^th, and 31^st best teams in the NFL. Even without Rodgers, Green Bay has enough to pull out a win.

PACKERS (-1) over Eagles

 

3-6 Buffalo Bills @ 2-6 Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

            We’re happy to see E.J. Manuel back on the field, but Buffalo plays like shit on the road.

STEELERS (-3) over Bills

 

3-5 Oakland Raiders @ 2-6 New York Giants (-7.5)

            Feels weird giving up more than a touchdown on a 2-6 team, but when it’s against the Raiders I guess it’s justified.

GIANTS (-7.5) over Raiders

 

3-6 St. Louis Rams @ 6-2 Indianapolis Colts (-9.5)

            Chris Long and Robert Quinn will keep St. Louis in this game.

Rams (+9.5) over COLTS

 

8-1 Seattle Seahawks (-6) @ 2-6 Atlanta Falcons

            Atlanta doesn’t have the defense to take advantage of Seattle’s lackluster offensive line play.

Seahawks (-6) over FALCONS

 

6-3 Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) @ 3-5 Baltimore Ravens

            It’s official…the Ravens stink.

Bengals (-1.5) over RAVENS

 

5-3 Detroit Lions @ 5-3 Chicago Bears (Pick ‘em)

            Detroit lit up the Bears like a Christmas tree in their first meeting. We predict more of the same this Sunday.

Lions over BEARS

5-3 Carolina Panthers @ 6-2 San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)

            It’s time to pump the brakes on the Carolina bandwagon a little bit.

49ERS (-6.5) over Panthers

 

2-6 Houston Texans @ 4-4 Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)

            Don’t underestimate the power of a team honoring it’s coach dealing with a medical event.

Texans (+2.5) over CARDINALS

 

7-1 Denver Broncos (-7) @ 4-4 San Diego Chargers

            Ditto.

Broncos (-7) over CHARGERS

 

5-4 Dallas Cowboys @ 6-2 New Orleans Saints (-7)

            The combined margin of victory the last time these three teams have met has been nine points. We’re betting on another barnburner that Tony Romo gags away in the closing minutes.

Cowboys (+7) over SAINTS

 

4-4 Miami Dolphins (-3) @ 0-8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

            Tampa has to win eventually. Playing a team dealing with the NFL’s first bullying crisis is as good a chance as any.

BUCCANEERS (+3) over Dolphins

 

Last Week = 7-5-1

Season = 67-61-4
Thursday Pick = 1-0

NFL Quarter-Pole Rankings

The Fighting For The Right For The First Overall Pick In A Bad Draft Division

32. Oakland Raiders (1-3)

            Their upset win over Pittsburgh was fun, but it was back to reality in Denver.

31. Tennessee Titans (1-3)

            Jake Locker has been the lone bright spot, but he’ll miss at least this week’s game against Minnesota with a left shoulder injury. He’s the real deal, but the defense is a mess.

30. Cleveland Browns (0-4)

            The defense isn’t horrendous (especially when Joe Haden is on the field), but one could argue that the only objective Cleveland had when drafting Brandon Weeden was to secure the rights to Matt Barkley.

29. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3)

            Blaine Gabbert has shown more flashes in four games this year than the full 2011 season, but needs to establish more consistency for Jacksonville to become a competitive team. At the very least, he’s on course to do enough to prevent the Jaguars from drafting a quarterback in the first round of next year’s draft.

28. Kansas City Chiefs (1-3)

            If the Chiefs hadn’t dumped so much money into Matt Cassell, they’d already be exploring new quarterback options.
 

The Both Teams Played Hard, Both Teams Played Hard Division

27. Miami Dolphins (1-3)

            Would Matt Moore be worth an extra win or two so far if he was playing over Ryan Tannehill? We’ll never know.

26. Indianapolis Colts (1-2)

            Andrew Luck hasn’t been as flashy as Robert Griffin III, but Colts fans should still feel great about their new franchise quarterback.

The Coaching Does Matter Division

25. New Orleans Saints (0-4)

            Perhaps New Orleans will win a game now that Sean Payton has been allowed to watch one in the stadium.

24. Carolina Panthers (1-3)

            So far, there has been no week-to-week consistency from Ron Rivera’s bunch.

God’s Division

23. New York Jets (2-2)

            This Monday night’s “TEBOW! TEBOW! TEBOW! TEBOW!” chant might be louder than the “BULLSHIT!” chant we heard in Baltimore two weeks ago. Things aren’t looking good for the Sanchise.

The Good Bad Teams Division

 

22. Buffalo Bills (2-2)

            I had a great sentence prepped for Buffalo, but it was interrupted by another Patriots touchdown.

21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3)

            If Josh Freeman wasn’t completely inept for six of the last eight quarters of football he’s played, Tampa could be 3-1.

20. Washington Redskins (2-2)

            Redskins fans will forever be able to wonder what this team could’ve done if Brian Orakpo didn’t use copious amounts of steroids, causing his pectoral muscle to separate from his body.

19. Detroit Lions (1-3)

            An abysmal secondary and the return of Matthew Stafford to the weekly injury report spell the undoing of the 2012 Lions.

18. St. Louis Rams (3-2)

            A year off hasn’t hurt Jeff Fisher at all. He has his Rams playing hard every week, and Sam Bradford looking like a franchise quarterback.

17. Dallas Cowboys (2-2)

            Dez Bryant is really the perfect microcosm of what the Cowboys have been for the past decade. He has as much talent as any wide receiver in the league, but too many dumb mistakes doom him in the end.

16. Seattle Seahawks (2-2)

            Russell Wilson sucks.

The Edward Nigma Division

15. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2)

            If Rashard Mendenhall returns from his ACL injury like Adrian Peterson did, the Steelers are a Super Bowl contender. If not, they will struggle to win games without a running game and a pass rush.

14. Philadelphia Eagles (3-1)

            I’ll be nice and say Philadelphia hasn’t played their best football yet, but they are still 3-1. If they can get the offensive line figured out, they could run away with the NFC East.

The 2005 Ford Focus Division

13. Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)

            They aren’t particularly sexy (except for A.J. Green, who’s the best wide receiver in football that the masses don’t know about), and they won’t beat elite teams, but the Bengals will do just enough to snag a wildcard spot.
 

The Fatally Flawed Division

12. Green Bay Packers (2-2)

            No physicality on offense. I stole that from Mark Schlereth.

11. Minnesota Vikings (3-1)

            Can’t cover anyone. I made that up myself.

10. Arizona Cardinals (4-1)

            I don’t care what he’s looked like so far. Kevin Kolb is still the quarterback.

9. Denver Broncos (2-2)

            Peyton Manning is putting up numbers, but his throws make him look like a modern version of Billy Kilmer.

8. San Diego Chargers (3-1)

            Norv Turner coaches them.

The Rope-a-Dope Division

7. New York Giants (2-2)

            You can’t write off the Giants until they are mathematically eliminated from winning a Super Bowl.

6. Chicago Bears (3-1)

            Chicago beat three bad teams, and had one quirky loss to Green Bay on a Thursday night. Not enough on the resume to name this team a Super Bowl favorite, but they are close.
 

The Super Bowl Favorites Division

5. San Francisco 49ers (3-1)

            Any concerns about San Francisco after their loss at Minnesota were put to bed by their complete annihilation of the Jets last week.

4. New England Patriots (2-2)
            The Patriots are two 2-point losses away from being undefeated, and have the easiest schedule in the league the rest of the way. They could still finish 13-3.

3. Baltimore Ravens (3-1)

            It pains me to say it, but Joe Flacco might actually be good.

2. Atlanta Falcons (4-0)

            Matt Ryan, your 2012 NFL quarter-pole MVP.

1. Houston Texans (4-0)

            There isn’t a more complete team in football right now than the Houston Texans. Matt Schaub has been great (even despite losing part of his ear). Arian Foster and Ben Tate have been dominant on the ground. Andre Johnson has returned to form. J.J. Watt has made everyone forget about Mario Williams. We could be talking about a 14-2 Texans team when we get to January.

2012 AFC West Preview

            It’s time to head to the AFC West, aka “the division that traded the rights to Tebow and God for Peyton Manning”.

4. Oakland Raiders

2011 Record = 8-8, Third in AFC West

2012 Schedule = SD, @ MIA, PIT, @ DEN, BYE, @ ATL, JAC, @ KC, TB, @ BAL, NO, @ CIN, CLE, DEN, KC, @ CAR, @ SD

Franchise Players = QB Carson Palmer, RB Darren McFadden, DT Richard Seymour, S Michael Huff, P Shane Lechler (seriously)

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = None
Potential Impact Rookies = None

Outlook = Carson Palmer wasn’t all that bad for a guy who was sitting on his couch the first six weeks of the season. If he has a healthy Darren McFadden at his disposal for at least 14 games (a big if, because McFadden has never played more than 13 in a single season), the Raiders could have a frisky offense. Unfortunately, the loss of their first round pick (read about it hear) coupled with the large amount of draft picks they had already given away in past trades means this is a team that lacks serious depth. It will take a return to 2006 form and a full year of health from McFadden (read about what a healthy McFadden could mean to the fantasy community here) to drag this bunch into Wildcard contention.

Ceiling = 10-6

Floor = 3-13
No Credentials Prediction = 6-10

3. Kansas City Chiefs

2011 Record = 7-9, Last in AFC West

2012 Schedule = ATL, @ BUF, @ NO, SD, BAL, @ TB, BYE, OAK, @ SD, @ PIT, CIN, DEN, CAR, @ CLE, @ OAK, IND, @ DEN

Franchise Players = RB Jamaal Charles, WR Dwayne Bowe, T Brandon Albert, LB Tamba Hali, LB Derrick Johnson, CB Brandon Flowers, S Eric Berry

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = RB Peyton Hillis, T Eric Winston
Potential Impact Rookies = Dontari Poe (Memphis) 1-11, G Jeff Allen (Illinois) 2-12

Outlook = Kansas City is loaded with solid young talent, but they’d be much more attractive if the Peyton they added this off-season was Manning instead of Hillis. Matt Cassel is the NFL equivalent of a restrictor plate on a stock car. Expect the Chiefs to be in numerous low scoring games this season that hopefully no one other than Kansas City fans will have to watch. I’ll bet on Cassel hijacking a couple of potential victories for them.

Ceiling = 12-4

Floor = 3-13
No Credentials Prediction = 8-8

2. San Diego Chargers

2011 Record = 8-8, Second in AFC West

2012 Schedule = @ OAK, TEN, ATL, @ KC, @ NO, DEN, BYE, @ CLE, KC, @ TB, @ DEN, BAL, CIN, @ PIT, CAR, @NYJ, OAK

Franchise Players = QB Philip Rivers, RB Ryan Matthews, TE Antonio Gates, C Nick Hardwick, OLB Shaun Phillips

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = WR Robert Meachem, WR Eddie Royal, DT Aubrayo Franklin, S Atari Bigby
Potential Impact Rookies = DE Melvin Ingram (South Carolina) 1-18, DT Kendall Reyes (Connecticut) 2-17

Outlook = It’s truly incredible that A.J. Smith and Norv Turner are still employed in the Chargers organization. After squandering top-end talent for most of the past decade (including the prime years of LaDainian Tomlinson, the best runningback of the ‘00s), they finally bottomed out with a pitiful 8-8 record, squandering a chance to win the most winnable division in football. While most folks are ready to point the finger at Turner, Smith deserves most of the blame for letting a once formidable defense erode into a mid-tier unit. To San Diego’s credit, they were aggressive in the off-season, adding three solid defensive linemen through the draft and free agency. They are a defensive playmaker away (something they haven’t had since Shaun Merriman’s best seasons) from returning to their previous form.

            As for the other side of the ball, a return to their 2010 form hinges on the health of Antonio Gates and the emergence of a wide receiver. Blessed with good health for the most of his career, Gates has had foot problems each of the past two seasons. If healthy, he’s capable of putting up similar production to Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski. With the loss of Vincent Jackson (who other than a monster game against the Patriots last year, was way overrated), someone will need to step up to be Philip River’s main outside target. Meachem is the most likely to emerge (he was lost in the uber-deep receiving core the Saints have), but Eddie Royal and Malcolm Floyd have been valuable assets before as well.
            With all that said, the pieces are in place for the Chargers to bounce back in 2012. There isn’t a game on their schedule that you point to and say they have no chance of winning (maybe their road date at Pittsburgh, depending on high you are on the Steelers). It all boils down to whether or not Norv Turner screws it up.

Ceiling = 13-3

Floor = 8-8
No Credentials Prediction = 9-7 (I’m done banking on Norv)

1. Denver Broncos

2011 Record = 8-8, First in AFC West, Lost in AFC Divisional Game

2012 Schedule = PIT, @ ATL, HOU, OAK, @ NE, @ SD, BYE, NO, @ CIN, @ CAR, SD, @ KC, TB, @ OAK, @ BAL, CLE, KC

Franchise Players = RB Willis McGahee, WR DeMaryius Thomas (will find this out once Manning is playing) T Ryan Clady, DE Elvis Dumervil, LB Von Miller, CB Champ Bailey

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = QB Peyton Manning, TE Jacob Tamme, CB Tracy Porter
Potential Impact Rookies = DT Derek Wolfe (Cincinnati) 2-4, QB Brock Osweiler (Arizona State) 2-25

Outlook = I don’t think anyone can honestly predict what Denver will get out of Peyton Manning this season, but let’s say the worst happens and Manning barely plays. This was a club that made it to the playoffs with a quarterback who couldn’t read defenses, work through a progression of receivers, or for that matter, throw an out or a slant. I think if Brock Osweiler is forced to play, Denver can tighten up the playbook like they did with Tebow and muddle their way to another .500 season. No Credentials will step out on a limb and say Manning will be healthy, and effective. We’ll realize that DeMaryius Thomas is actually an elite receiver, and Eric Decker isn’t bad either (click here to see what these two could do for the fantasy community with a healthy Manning). A bruising running game will be enhanced by the threat of the pass, which is something Denver never had the luxury of last season with Tebow under center. Denver even has a defense built to rush the passer, so if Manning can deliver some early leads, Von Miller and company will be able to pin their ears back and attack the quarterback. If everything clicks (which is a big if), we could be talking about the scariest team in the AFC. 

Ceiling = 13-3

Floor = 5-11 (can’t discount that God could hold a grudge over dumping Tebow)

No Credentials Prediction = 10-6

Click here to read about the AFC East
Click here to read about the AFC North
Click here to read about the AFC South
Click here to read about the NFC East
Click here to read about the NFC South
Click here to read about the NFC North
Click here to read about the NFC West

NFL 1st Quarter Power Poll

This is the first power poll in the history of No Credentials. I've ranked every team in the league. We'll do this again after Weeks 9, 13, and 17. Each team is grouped into divisions (shameless rip-off of Bill Simmons). Have a problem with the rankings? Let it be known in the comments section.

The Andrew Luck Division

32. Miami Dolphins (0-4) – It’s a good thing Brandon Marshall got his meds figured out, otherwise I’m not sure he would’ve mentally been able to handle another full season of putrid quarterback play. If I were Marshall, I’d be faking a groin injury and missing the rest of the year in order to secure a 0-16 season.

31. Indianapolis Colts (0-4) – Props need to be given to a defense that has played really hard the past two weeks, but the astronomical downgrade at the quarterback position is too much for this team to overcome.

30. St. Louis Rams (0-4) – During my NFC West preview, I did forecast the potential of a tough start for St. Louis. However, I never expected them to look as listless as they have. Sam Bradford still is in desperate need of a number one receiver.

29. Kansas City Chiefs (1-3) – Don’t let the win against Minnesota (what a barn burner that game was) fool you. Too many injuries will keep this team in the bottom tier of the NFL all season long.

28. Minnesota Vikings (0-4) – It’s too bad the Vikings didn’t realize how bad they were going to be this season. In retrospect, it would’ve made more sense to draft an offensive lineman who could potentially protect Andrew Luck. If Minnesota does wind up with the top pick expect all sorts of awkwardness when they try to move last year’s first round pick, quarterback Christian Ponder. 

The Quincy Carter Division

27. Denver Broncos (1-3) – Either Tim Tebow’s shadow is hanging over Mile High, or God is punishing the Broncos for not putting Tebow in the game. Josh McDaniels did an excellent job of screwing this club for 2011.

26. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) – Jacksonville followed the 2001 Jerry Jones playbook perfectly, cutting an established (albeit mediocre) veteran quarterback to clear the way for a rookie. At least Blaine Gabbert has shown flashes of competency (which Quincy Carter rarely showed during his rookie campaign, or any campaign).

25. Seattle Seahawks (1-3) – If it weren’t for their incredible home-field advantage (give credit to Seattle fans, they make noise even when the product their team puts on the field is sub-par), the Seahawks would be in pole position in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.

24. Arizona Cardinals (1-3) – Kevin Kolb hasn’t been that good, but for a guy who only had a month of practice with the team before opening day, Arizona fans can’t complain. We’ll have to wait until 2012 before making a verdict on whether or not Kolb is a viable NFL starter.

The Good Bad Teams Division

23. Cleveland Browns (2-2) – I’m pretty sure Peyton Hillis wouldn’t of won the Madden cover vote if fans knew he was going to complain about his contract so much to the point that teammates believe he missed time during a game because of it. The Great White Hope’s contract squabble has overshadowed the solid play of quarterback Colt McCoy.

22. Carolina Panthers (1-3) – Holy Cam Newton Batman! The wins aren’t there, but Panthers fans (all 624 of them) have to be excited about what Newton has shown so far. There were legitimate concerns that Newton could be a bust. He has put those worries at ease through the first four weeks.                       

21. Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) – Even without Jonathan Joseph, the defense has still managed to play at a high level. Andy Dalton has been the second most impressive rookie quarterback, and seems to be developing chemistry with fellow rookie A.J. Green. For the first time since 2005, there is reason for optimism in Cincinnati.

20. Oakland Raiders (2-2) – There aren’t enough weapons in the passing game for Oakland to be a playoff team, but when they can get the running game going watch out. Trips to Oakland won’t be fun for teams with soft defensive lines.

The Enigma Division

19. Chicago Bears (2-2) – Chicago graduated from the Good Bad Teams Division after the commitment to the run they showed against Carolina. The Bears offense flows much better when Matt Forte is the focal point instead of Jay Cutler.

18. Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) – Philadelphia is two Vick injuries away from being 3-1, but Michael Vick injuries are to be expected when he is the regular starting quarterback. Any quarterback would be banged up playing behind the shoddy offensive line the Eagles have thrown together. Andy Reid needs to have a more balanced offensive game plan in order to keep his franchise quarterback on the field.

17. Atlanta Falcons (2-2) – Atlanta just doesn’t look right. They look like a team that should be pounding the ball between the tackles, but seems hell bent on throwing 45 times a game. If they don’t figure out that Michael Turner needs to get the rock, we’re looking at a team that traded five draft picks for a wide receiver finishing 8-8.

16. Dallas Cowboys (2-2) – Dallas would be 4-0 if Tony Romo didn’t piss away two games. However, Dallas would also be 0-4 if it weren’t for two heroic Romo comebacks. Hopefully with a week off (and a week of rest for banged up receivers Miles Austin and Dez Bryant), we’ll see more good Romo than bad Romo the rest of the way.

15. New York Jets (2-2) – How much better would the Jets look if Josh Freeman was their starting quarterback instead of Mark Sanchez?

14. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) – Apparently in addition to the four game suspension he served at the beginning of the 2010 season, Ben Roethlisberger was also forced play behind a terrible offensive line for two seasons. 

The Lucky Sons of Bitches Division

13. Washington Redskins (3-1) – Washington has done well to take an advantage of an easy start to the season (except the blowing the Week 3 game at Dallas). Things are going to get harder the rest of the way, so expect Rex Grossman and company to crash back to Earth by Week 10.

12. San Francisco 49ers (3-1) – No Credentials should’ve given Coach Jim Harbaugh more credit before the season. He’s done a nice job of implementing a mistake free offense that is keeping the team in games. San Francisco probably only needs to play .500 ball the rest of the way to win the division.

The Fringe Contenders Division

11. Buffalo Bills (3-1) – The “Fighting Fitzpatricks” were on cloud nine before a loss at Cincinnati brought them back to Earth a little bit. If Mark Sanchez continues to do his best Ryan Leaf impersonation, Buffalo may be on course for a beating by Baltimore in the Wildcard Round of the playoffs.

10. Tennessee Titans (3-1) – Tennessee would be four spots higher on this list if it weren’t for the loss of wide receiver Kenny Britt. Even without him, Matt Hasselbeck has provided enough stability at the quarterback position to open up the offense. Chris Johnson cracked 100 yards for the first time last week, and expect him to be a monster the rest of the way.

9. New York Giants (3-1) – Based on looks, the Giants should be in The Enigma Division. Expect injuries to eventually catch up with this club.  

8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) – Tampa is a year or two away from serious contention. Buccaneers fans feels do have to feel good about the young core of Josh Freeman, LeGarrette Blount, and Mike Williams.

7. Houston Texans (3-1) – I could play runningback and average 4 yard per carry for Houston. The Texans appear to have enough talent to withstand the loss of Andre Johnson for a few weeks.

The Feel Good Story Division

6. Detroit Lions (4-0) – Monday’s date with the Bears will tell us a lot about whether or not we need to take Detroit seriously the rest of the season. If they can find any semblance of a consistent running game, Detroit will be a serious threat in the NFC.

The Heavy Hitters Division

5. Baltimore Ravens (3-1) – I’d bump this team up three spots if they stopped letting Joe Flacco try to prove that he’s a franchise quarterback that can carry an offense.  Flacco was the only thing keeping the Ravens from beating New York 45-7 last Sunday night.

4. New Orleans Saints (3-1)

3. New England Patriots (3-1) – I’ll lump these two together because they both have extraordinary passing games, but have a hard time running out the clock to finish off a game. I’d bank on New Orleans figuring that out with Mark Ingram getting his legs under him before the Patriots find a solution.

2. San Diego Chargers (3-1) – I didn’t research this, but I believe San Diego was over .500 during September for the first time since Stan Humphries was under center. The emergence of Ryan Matthews makes this a real scary team to potentially face off against in the playoffs. For nothing else, this is a pretty solid club to ride for gambling purposes.

The Jimmie Johnson Division

1. Green Bay Packers (4-0) – Sure, this team looks like it gets kind of bored sometimes and lets teams hang around in games (that didn’t stop Green Bay last season). As long as Aaron Rodgers is still playing lights out, this team is still the favorite to win the Lombardi Trophy.