2015 Fantasy Football Preview: Quarterbacks

            We finish our fantasy football preview with a look at quarterbacks.

Tier-1 = Expensive Investments

 

A.Rodgers, GB

A.Luck, IND

            Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck are really good at quarterbacking in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. We enjoy watching them play. However, the cost to own them in standard drafts or auction is too rich for our blood. Using a second round pick on them means your passing up the chance for a stud runningback or receiver. The only chance I end up with one of these two on any of my rosters on draft day is if they are available in the third round.

Tier-2 = It’s the Water

 

R.Wilson, SEA

B.Roethlisberger, PIT

            Neither Wilson or Roethlisberger got enough credit last year for how productive they were last year for fantasy owners, but they are finally getting the respect the deserve with their current average draft price ending up in the fourth round (third round in 12 team leagues or larger). I’m not likely to choose either of them, unless I’ve already filled my starting RB slots within my first three picks.

Tier-3 = Priced to Sell

 

C.Newton, CAR

M.Ryan, ATL

T.Romo, DAL

            This is the tier I want my QB to come from on draft day. Cam Newton is one of the few quarterbacks who is “receiver proof”, meaning he could lose virtually any piece of his receiving core and still maintain the same value. The loss of Kelvin Benjamin doesn’t scare us at all, and if it means he ends up with 800 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns on the ground, it could boost his fantasy value. Matt Ryan should benefit from an improved offensive line, and should be in the running to lead the league in passing yardage. Tony Romo will have more opportunities to throw with DeMarco Murray in Philly, which isn’t a bad thing considering the talent on the Cowboys offensive line.

Tier-4 = Old Farts

P.Manning, DEN

D.Brees, NO

            Both of these guys are going before the guys in the previous tier in Yahoo drafts, but that doesn’t mean we have to rate them higher here. Both are entering the twilights of their career, and we’d rather bail out a year early than a year late. Brees might have the fewest pass attempts he’s ever had since joining New Orleans in 2006, and his upside is limited even more with Jimmy Graham out of town. Manning still has tons of weapons at his disposal, but Denver also will shift to a more run heavy approach to ensure Peyton is healthy for the playoffs.

Tier-5 = High-End Platoon Partners

E.Manning, NYG

R.Tannehill, MIA

P.Rivers, SD

            By our ranks, these three guys will be starting quarterbacks in 12-team leagues. That’s okay for us, but we’d probably use another pick on a back up to avoid unfavorable match-ups.

Tier-6 = Deflator!

T.Brady, NE

            It’s two weeks before opening night, and incredibly we still don’t have any idea what Brady’s final punishment will be (good job by you Goodell!). Even if Brady were to start Week 1, there are reasons to downgrade him in fantasy leagues. We’ll use snazzy bullet points.

-         Ryan Tannehill scored more fantasy points last year than Tom Brady.

-         Seriously, Ryan Tannehill, the guy that couldn’t even complete 25% of his passes that traveled more than 20 yards in the air last year.

-         With apologies to Julian Edelman, there still isn’t an elite wide receiver on the Patriots roster.

-         We covered it during our Tight End preview, but it bears repeating…do you like Rob Gronkowski’s chances of staying healthy for a second straight season?

-         LeGarrette Blount is in the fold early this year, which means the Pats could pound the ball on the ground even more this season.

For all those reasons, we’ll probably not have Brady on any of our fantasy rosters this year, unless we’ve filled up our starting QB-RB-WR slots and he’s available in the seventh round.

Tier-7 = Low-End (With Upside) Platoon Partners

C.Kaepernick, SF

J.Flacco, BAL

T.Bridgewater, MIN

M.Stafford, DET

            If you’re a crazy person who plays in a league that starts two QBs every week, these guys are the ones I want as my second quarterbacks. We still have a soft spot for Kaepernick, who is a strong bounce back candidate this year. The 49ers defense won’t be nearly as stout as it has been the past few years, meaning Kaepernick will have more opportunities to deliver. In real life we’re not sure Joe Flacco is a great fit for Marc Trestman’s style of offense, but the volume should translate to fantasy stats (it worked for Jay Cutler and Josh McCown!). Teddy Bridgewater is our favorite quarterback out of this group. The Vikings have weapons all over the place, and Bridgewater’s efficiency could deliver a Russell Wilson-esque stat line.

Tier-8 = Bye Week Waiver Wire Dudes

S.Bradford, PHI

N.Foles, STL

R.Griffin III, WAS

C.Palmer, ARI

J.Cutler, CHI

A.Dalton, CIN

            None of these guys should be drafted in standard leagues with 12 teams or less, but this will likely be the best options you have when your starting QB is on a bye. Sam Bradford has the highest ceiling of this tier, but we need to see him get through at least one month of regular season play before we endorse him.

Tier-9 = Young Guns

J.Winson, TB

D.Carr, OAK

B.Bortles, JAC

M.Mariotta, TEN

            Here are our favorite options for those of you playing in keeper or dynasty leagues. We expect all four to have their moments (even Bortles, we like the Jags receiving core), but they will not be start-able on a weekly basis.

Tier-10 = We Only Included Them So We Could Rank 30 QBs

A.Smith, KC

B.Hoyer, HOU

R.Fitzpatrick, NYJ

            If one of these three are starting at any point during your fantasy season, something went terribly wrong.

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Weekend (10/10-10/13)

10. I Turn 29 Years Old

            I look forward to celebrating my 29^th for the next seventy years.

9. Joe Flacco Chucks Five First Half Touchdowns

            Reportedly, Flacco’s touchdowns still counted for 20 points in standard fantasy football leagues despite the fact he threw them against the hapless Buccaneers.

8. Terminus Already Blew Up
            Kudos to the folks running “The Walking Dead’ for not leaving our heroes captive with a bunch of hipster cannibals.

7. Baylor Outguns TCU
            In a game where the final score was 61-58, I guess TCU shouldn’t of felt too safe with a 24 point lead.

6. NASCAR Fight!

            Keselowski and Kenseth are two of our favorite drivers here in the Muir household, so this fight wasn’t as satisfying for us as the typical NASCAR brawl.

           

5. Mississippi State Defeats Auburn, Claims Top Spot in AP Poll

4. Royals Grab 2-0 Lead Over Baltimore

            Kansas City is halfway to a trip to the World Series, and the state of Mississippi rules college football. We’re buying tons of canned goods and bottled water on our next grocery run.

           

3. Aaron Rodgers Does a Marino Impression, Leads Last Gasp Victory Over Miami

            You can’t fall for the play that your most famous quarterback in franchise history invented. Shame on the Dolphins.         

2. Kolten Wong Smashes Walk Off Dinger, Evens Series With Giants

            It was a nice moment for Mr. Wong, who infamously was picked off to end a World Series game last year against Boston.

1. Dallas Wins at Seattle

            Short of Tony Romo and DeMarco Murray showing up at my front door with a lifetime supply of cash, there’s really nothing else those two dudes could’ve done to make my birthday any better. 

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Past Weekend (9/26-9/28)

10. Rajon Rondo Breaks His Hand, Out 6-8 Weeks

            While this move won’t do anything to improve Rondo’s trade value, it will help ensure the Celtics will have an abundance of ping-pong balls in next year’s draft lottery.

9. Jeff Gordon Emphatically Punches Ticket to Round of 12 at Dover

            Gordon’s march to 100 wins took another step forward as he dominated down the stretch to win his fourth race of the year. Brad Keselowski was equally impressive though. He’s posted 1-1-2 for finishes in the first three races of The Chase.

8. Jordan Zimmerman Ends Regular Season With a No-Hitter
            No Credentials is notoriously snarky about MLB no-hitters in the post-steroid era, but Steven Sousa Jr.’s ridiculous catch to end the game made the event worth of this list.

7. Aaron Rodgers Backs Up Words With 4 Touchdown Passes
            Sadly for Chicago, Rodgers wasn’t joking when he told Packer fans to relax.

6. Tampa Bay Confirms NFL No Longer Makes Sense, Rallies to Defeat Pittsburgh

            I’m officially deciding to only gamble on NBA games going forward after watching highlights from this game. We’ll touch more on that subject this week (the unpredictability of NFL games, not gambling on the NBA).

           

5. Kansas City Royals Return to the Postseason

            After Detroit clinched the AL Central Sunday, their stay could only last for one day, but hey it still counts.

4. Steve Smith “Sr.” Goes Bonkers

            It was obvious that Smith would have extra motivation facing off against his former team, but you’ll be hard pressed to find people outside of his immediate family that he could return to fantasy football relevance on a weekly basis.

           

3. Cowboys Play Like It’s 1993, Smash Saints

            Dallas demonstrated the value of an elite offensive line with their dismantling of a Saints team that beat them 49-17 last season. 

           

2. 49ers Get Back to Basics

            Teams often go astray when they try to be something that they aren’t (which is what happened to the 49ers each of the last two weeks), but they stuck to Frank Gore and the ground game and grinded out a win over the Eagles.

1. Boston Bids Farewell to Derek Jeter

            Nothing was going to top Jeter’s last game at Yankee Stadium, but kudos to Red Sox fans (who probably were outnumbered by Yankee fans who bought tickets on Stub Hub, but we won’t talk about that) for paying respects to a man who tormented them for many years.

2014 NFC North Preview

4. Minnesota Vikings

2013 Record = 5-10-1, Last in NFC North, Missed Playoffs

2014 Schedule = @ Rams, Patriots, @ Saints, Falcons, @ Packers, Lions, @ Bills, @ Buccaneers, Redskins, BYE, @ Bears, Packers, Panthers, Jets, @ Lions, @ Dolphins, Bears

Blue Chippers = HB Adrian Peterson

High Quality Players = C John Sullivan, RG Brandon Fusco, RT Phil Loadholt
Solid Contributors = FB Jerome Felton, WR Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Greg Jennings, DE Brian Robison, DT Linval Joseph, CB Captain Munnerlyn, FS Harrison Smith
Impact Rookies = OLB Anthony Barr (1-9, UCLA), QB Teddy Bridgewater (1-32, Louisville), DE Scott Crichton (3-72, Oregon State)

Good News = They didn’t rehire Brad Childress.

Bad News = Starting in Week 2, they play a five week stretch where they will face Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, and Matthew Stafford. Ouch.

Outlook = With the exception of the improbable Brett Favre year in 2009, Minnesota has featured a mediocre revolving door at quarterback for the last decade. Teddy Bridgewater might be the man to change that, but we likely won’t find that out until 2015, as Minnesota appears set on grooming him on the bench this season. Matt Cassell will be the Week 1 starter, and he could have success with the pieces he has at the skill positions. Adrian Peterson is still one of the elite runningbacks in the game, but one has to wonder how many quality years he has left. Greg Jennings saw his production improve when Cassell was playing as opposed to Christian Ponder. Cordarrelle Patterson has a very long name, and also happens to be one of the most over hyped fantasy assets this season. Matt Cassel isn’t the right guy to take advantage of Patterson’s elite speed. Kyle Rudolph was disappointing last year overall, but like Jennings also performed better without Ponder in the lineup. The offensive line could reach elite status if Matt Kalil continues to improve during his sophomore campaign.

            Defensively is where Minnesota will run into the majority of it’s problems. They gave up more points than any other club in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE last year, and other than defensive guru Mike Zimmer taking over as Head Coach, there isn’t a reason to expect this unit to be any better. Jared Allen left for Chicago, leaving career backup Everson Griffen to fill his shoes. Chad Greenway is a tackling machine when healthy, but it’s unlikely he lasts a full 16 games. Captain Munnerlyn was their key signing for the secondary, but he’s not good enough to transform the entire defense.

Prediction = Peterson will win a game or two by himself, but shoddy quarterback play and poor defense won’t get Minnesota back to the postseason. 5-11

3. Chicago Bears

2013 Record = 8-8, Second in NFC North, Missed Playoffs

2014 Schedule = Bills, @ 49ers, @ Jets, Packers, @ Panthers, @ Falcons, Dolphins, @ Patriots, BYE, @ Packers, Vikings, Buccaneers, @ Lions, Cowboys, Saints, Lions, @ Vikings

Blue Chippers = WR Brandon Marshall

High Quality Players = WR Alshon Jeffery
Solid Contributors = QB Jay Cutler, HB Matt Forte, TE Martellus Bennett, LG Matt Slauson, DE LaMarr Houston, OLB Lance Briggs, CB Tim Jennings, CB Charles Tillman
Impact Rookies = CB Kyle Fuller (1-14, Virginia Tech)

Good News = For the first time since the 1940s, Chicago might finish as the most prolific offense in the NFC.

Bad News = Their defense didn’t get any younger.

Outlook = The Bears are set up to have another dynamic offensive season, but their win total hinges largely on the ability of their defense to at least be average. Last year, they were historically bad, surrendering the most points in franchise history. There were issues at every level of the defense, with the defensive line being the weakest link. Chicago was the worst against the run in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, and produced the second fewest sacks. Julius Peppers and his bloated salary were released, and Chicago replaced him with Jared Allen and LaMarr Houston. They didn’t do anything dramatic to address the defensive tackle position, which could be an Achilles’ Heal. Lance Briggs was the only linebacker who played with any kind of consistency in 2013, and once again will be asked to anchor the defense. Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings are one of the longest tenured cornerback duos in the league, and Kyle Fuller is an excellent heir apparent who will find plenty of playing time in nickel packages. Both safety spots were considered an open competition heading into training camp, and Chicago desperately needs someone to step up in those roles.

            The better the defense plays, the more opportunities an offense that finished second in total scoring will have the ball even more. Jay Cutler has been much maligned, but actually posted his most efficient season to date in 2013. A second year in Marc Trestman’s system should lead to further improvement. Matt Forte set career highs in receptions and total yards last year, and is the perfect tailback for what the Bears want to do on offense. Brandon Marshall has been established as an elite receiver for many years, but it was Alshon Jeffery’s emergence that pushed Chicago to another level offensively. Martellus Bennett wasn’t as spectacular, but also provided solid production not seen by a Chicago tight end since the days of Mike Ditka. The offensive line showed stunning progress from 2012, and with another year of continuity could make the leap to top-5 status by year’s end.

Prediction = We see Chicago as the Dallas Cowboys of the NFC North. There will be many entertaining games, but a weak defense and erratic quarterback play at the wrong time by Jay Cutler will keep the Bears near .500. 9-7

2. Detroit Lions

2013 Record = 7-9, Third in NFC North, Missed Playoffs

2014 Schedule = Giants, @ Panthers, Packers, @ Jets, Bills, @ Vikings, Saints, Falcons, BYE, Dolphins, @ Cardinals, @ Patriots, Bears, Buccaneers, Vikings, @ Bears, @ Packers

Blue Chippers = WR Calvin Johnson, DT Ndamukong Suh

High Quality Players = HB Joique Bell, RG Larry Warford, MLB Stephen Tulloch
Solid Contributors = QB Matthew Stafford, HB Reggie Bush, WR Golden Tate, C Dominic Raiola, DT Nick Fairley, FS Glover Quin
Impact Rookies = TE Eric Ebron (1-10, North Carolina), OLB Kyle Van Noy (2-40, BYU)

Good News = They fired Jim Schwarz.

Bad News = They hired Jim Caldwell.

Outlook = This will be one team that I spend very little time discussing the roster (you can see the names above, they have talent), because everything here has to do with the Head Coach. I don’t really believe in Jim Caldwell (hard to be inspired by a guy who doesn’t blink or show emotion on the sideline), but there’s a chance that anything is an improvement over Jim Schwarz. Detroit has felt like a team playing playground football the past few years with egregious personal foul calls and awful turnovers at the worst times. Caldwell was the Head Coach when the Colts made the Super Bowl in 2009, and also was the play-caller for the Ravens Super Bowl run in 2012. There’s a chance he provides Stafford with enough structure to increase his efficiency, pushing Detroit into dark horse contender status.

Prediction = Dumping the worst coach in football is worth a three win improvement. 10-6

1. Green Bay Packers

2013 Record = 8-7-1, NFC North Champions, Lost NFC Wildcard Game

2014 Schedule = @ Seahawks, Jets, @ Lions, @ Bears, Vikings, @ Dolphins, Panthers, @ Saints, BYE, Bears, Eagles, @ Vikings, Patriots, Falcons, @ Bills, @ Buccaneers, Lions

Blue Chippers = QB Aaron Rodgers, LG Josh Sitton, OLB Clay Matthews

High Quality Players = HB Eddie Lacy, WR Jordy Nelson
Solid Contributors = FB John Kuhn, WR Randall Cobb, RG T.J. Lang, DE Mike Daniels, CB Sam Shields, CB Casey Hayward
Impact Rookies = FS Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (1-21, Alabama), WR Davante Adams (2-53, Fresno State)

Good News = Ha Ha Clinton-Dix fell into their laps at 21, filling their biggest need on the roster.

Bad News = They were unable to adequately replace Jermichael Finley.

Outlook = It was somewhat of a minor miracle that the Green Bay Packers were able to make the playoffs after Aaron Rodgers missed seven starts due to a broken collarbone. If you prorate the time he played in 2013 over a full 16 games, Rodgers would’ve been on pace for his first 5,000 yard season. Randall Cobb also missed 10 games due to a broken leg, and his return is vital to provide a stable complement for Jordy Nelson. Jarrett Boykin and rookie Davante Adams will have the first chance to fill the shoes of James Jones, who departed for Oakland. Eddie Lacy proved in his first season that he can be a workhorse, and a full season paired with Rodgers could lead to the most rushing touchdowns in the league. The most glaring hole on the Packers offense is the lack of a receiving tight end, as new starter Andrew Quarless is not a dynamic athlete.

            The Packers defense was exposed last year without Aaron Rodgers piling up points on the offensive side of the ball. They’ve already taken a big hit with B.J. Raji suffering a season ending injury during the pre-season. Veteran Julius Peppers was brought in to play a mix of defensive end and outside linebacker, and should ease some pressure off of Clay Matthews. Tramon Williams was a disaster during the first eight games of the year, but while the rest of the defense crumbled during the second half actually performed closer to his level of play during the Packers Super Bowl run in 2010.

Prediction = Assuming a full 16 games from Rodgers, Green Bay will once again be the class of the NFC North. 11-5

Click here to read about the AFC East

Click here to read about the NFC East
Click here to read about the AFC South
Click here to read about the NFC South
Click here to read about the AFC North
Click here to read about the AFC West

2014 Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings

            The tier system worked so well for my fantasy teams last year that we are breaking it out again for our 2014 Fantasy Football preview. As the off-season progresses these rankings will be updated on this page as necessary (quarterback should be the least volatile position, barring a catastrophic injury). We start at quarterback.

 

Tier 1 – The Sure Things

A.Rodgers, GB

P.Manning, DEN

D.Brees, NO

            Not a whole lot to say about these guys, other than barring injury, they are the surest bets on the board. We’ll rank Rodgers first because he’s the youngest, and provides some decent rushing stats that you won’t get out of Brees and Manning. I won’t get any of these quarterbacks in my re-draft leagues, but certainly wouldn’t mind acquiring one in an auction. If you do pay the price, don’t bother drafting a back up.

Tier 2 – The Next Best Things

C.Newton, CAR

A.Luck, IND

M.Ryan, ATL

M.Stafford, DET

            Cam Newton was in Tier-1 last season, but without Steve Smith his receiving pool is as shallow as it has ever been. That hasn’t bothered Newton before, but the uncertainty drops him from the third round a year ago to the fourth or fifth this year. This is probably the last year that Andrew Luck is not ranked in the top group for the next decade, while Stafford and Ryan are the best bets for piling up high volume passing totals. I’ll sign off on not having a back up on your initial roster if you end up with a player from this group, as that gives you the best combination of loading up on elite skill players early, and rolling the dice on late-round lottery tickets late.

 

Tier 3 – High Ceilings, Low Floors

C.Kaepernick, SF

P.Rivers, SD

N.Foles, PHI

T.Romo, DAL

R.Wilson, SEA

R.Griffin III, WAS

B.Roethlisberger, PIT

J.Cutler, CHI

T.Brady, NE

            Last year, our quarterbacks ranked seven through sixteen were split into three tiers, but this year they are all lumped in together. You could make a compelling case that any of these QBs could finish the year as a top-5 fantasy quarterback, and then immediately follow that with a strong argument that they could finish outside the top-20. Kaepernick is our favorite of this group, as he will have a vastly improved receiving core to work with than he did for the majority of last year. Robert Griffin III probably deserves his own tier as the biggest boom or bust quarterback of the year. In a perfect world, you’ll be able to draft two of these guys on your roster and work a platoon.

Tier 4 – Qualified Bye Week Subs

A.Dalton, CIN

E.Manning, NYG

R.Tannehill, MIA

A.Smith, KC

C.Palmer, ARI

J.McCown, TB

J.Flacco, BAL

            None of these guys should be drafted as your franchise fantasy quarterback (unless you enjoy losing), but these will be your best options to cover your starters bye if you choose to utilize the waiver wire to cover your starting QBs off week. Tannehill is still the most intriguing long-term value in this group, but he’s burning daylight in terms of delivering on his potential. 

Tier 5 – Unqualified Bye Week Subs

S.Bradford, STL

J.Manziel, CLE

E.Manuel, BUF

T.Bridgewater, MIN

M.Vick, NYJ

M.Schaub, OAK

J.Locker, TEN

G.Smith, NYJ

R.Fitzpatrick, HOU

            One could also rename this group “Dynasty League Prospects and Washed Up Dudes. At gunpoint, Bridgewater is my pick to deliver the most fantasy value this season, but you shouldn’t waste a draft pick on any of these guys unless you are playing in 16-team league where you have to play two quarterbacks every week.

Conclusion = Quarterback is still the deepest position in fantasy (unless you’re playing in a 2-QB league, but that puts you in the minority), so even if I was playing in a 16 team league, I plan on being one of the last people to draft a quarterback. An early round pick is just too valuable to waste on a quarterback when you factor in the diminishing value of every other position as you get deeper into a draft. If I lockdown my two starting runningbacks, taking Aaron Rodgers early in the third is the only way I end up with a Tier-1 QB on my team. The same theory applies here for auctions, as I plan on spending my money elsewhere and grabbing a quarterback after the initial rush.

Top-16 Value Based Ranks – Based on the current average draft position based on Yahoo drafts, these is my wish lists for quarterbacks I plan on targeting for my teams.

C.Kaepernick, SF, 89.4

C.Newton, CAR, 51.9

M.Ryan, ATL, 57.8

A.Rodgers, GB, 21.1

A.Luck, IND, 48.6

M.Stafford, DET, 46.2

P.Rivers, SD 93.5

R.Wilson, SEA, 89.0

T.Romo, DAL, 89.0

B.Roethlisberger, PIT, 118.9

J.Cutler, CHI, 106.8

D.Brees, NO, 18.3

N.Foles, PHI, 69.2

R.Griffin III, WAS, 60.7

P.Manning, DEN, 11.4

T.Brady, NE, 58.0

 

NFL Wildcard Sunday Picks

#6 San Diego Chargers (9-7) @ #3 Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)
            There’s some team of destiny talk being floated around in regards to the Chargers, but we see their destiny ending with a beat down in Cincinnati. Andy Dalton won’t rear his turnover-prone redhead until next week in Foxborough.

BENGALS (-7) over Chargers

 

#5 San Francisco 49ers (12-4) @ #4 Green Bay Packers (8-7-1)

            Aaron Rodgers delivered what will go down as one of the top 5 moments of the 2013 season last week with his fourth and 8 touchdown pass to Randall Cobb, but the bottom line is San Francisco is a vastly superior team. It will take a superhuman effort by Rodgers to earn Green Bay a ticket to the Divisional Round.
 
49ers (-3) over PACKERS

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Weekend (12/27-12/29)

10. Bruins Defenseman Dennis Seidenberg Diagnosed With Torn ACL
            Seidenberg has been one of the unsung heroes of Boston’s Cup-contending teams over the past few years, and will be sorely missed on the blue-line.

9. Andrew Bynum Suspended By Cavaliers

            Bynum showed flashes of his former self in spurts this year, and has one of the friendlier contracts in the NBA. Don’t be shocked if a contender picks him up before the trade deadline.

8. Ronda Rousey Busts Out the Patented Arm Bar Again

            No Credentials hit a new gambling low Saturday night and actually lost money wagering on Miesha Tate.

7. Yaisel Puig Pulled Over Doing 110 MPH
            One wonders if Puig tried to claim that he thought his speedometer was measuring his speed in kilometers.

6. Denver Obliterates More NFL Records

            Peyton Manning pushed the single season touchdown record to 55, while also breaking Drew Brees’ single-season passing yardage record by a single yard. Meanwhile, Denver became the first team in the history of THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE to score more than 600 points in a season. The previous two sentences won’t mean a thing if they choke again in January.

5. Sexy Rex Will Return to Jets’ Sideline in 2014
            We’ve taken quite a few shots at the Jets over the past few seasons, but when you step back and look at their 2013 campaign, it really is amazing that Rex Ryan was able to coach this team to eight wins this year. He earned another season.

4. Anderson Silva Breaks His Leg, Chris Weidman Defends Title

            In what was one of the more gruesome UFC injuries in recent memory, we likely have seen the last of Anderson Silva.

3. San Diego Rallies to Make Postseason

            After being given a golden oppurtunity with Baltimore and Miami losing earlier in the day, San Diego almost lost to Kansas City’s backup team. We don’t like their chances in round 1 at Cincinnati.
         
2. Kyle Orton Does Best Tony Romo Impersonation
            Naturally, a late interception spelled doom for the Dallas Cowboys. Apparently it doesn’t matter who’s under center.

1. Aaron Rodgers Returns, Leads to Packers to NFC North Title

            Rodgers had to shake off a ton of rust, but made one of the most dramatic plays of the season with his 4^th and 9, 48-yard touchdown pass to Randall Cobb.

Pre-Season Fantasy Football QB Ranks

           No Credentials is handling its fantasy football prep a little differently this year. Over the next ten days, we’ll be presenting our pre-pre-season fantasy ranks by position. We’ll group all ranked players by tiers, with an explanation of the value of each group, plus talk about whether or not the draft price is too high or low for each player. Sometime around the third week of pre-season, we’ll update our rankings (good chance an ACL or two explodes by then) to give you a clearer pre-draft preview (No Credentials fantasy rule #1…if you participate in a fantasy football draft in July, you’re an idiot). We start with the most important position in football (although not necessarily in fantasy football. We’ll have more on that in our next post).

Quarterback

            Last season, quarterbacks invaded the first round of most fantasy drafts, with Rodgers-Brees-Brady all going in the top 10. This year, with more stability at the runningback position, Rodgers is a fringe first round option, while everyone else falls to the second or later.

            Unless you’re playing a league that starts two quarterbacks, or is 14 teams or larger, there’s no reason to pick one too soon. Matthew Stafford threw the ball 724 times last year, and he’s the tenth quarterback off the board in average Yahoo drafts.

Tier 1 – The Sure Things

1	A.Rodgers, Packers
2	C.Newton, Panthers
3	D.Brees, Saints

            For my money, these are the three most reliable players in the game. Rodgers and Brees both will have the benefit of improved situations over a year ago (Green Bay actually employs talented runningbacks, and the Saints will actually have a real Head Coach), while Newton delivers the highest ceiling. Of the new bread of running quarterbacks, he’s the most durable.

            Rodgers sticker price will be too high for me, unless for some reason I find myself in a four-team league. He’s average price is 11.8 (early second round in ten team leagues, late first in 12), which is a tough place to not take a runningback. Brees is an option only if he falls into the third round, but his current 18.6 average selection is still to pricey. Newton is the best bargain of this group. He’s going in the third round, which if you’ve already solidified your runningbacks, is a great value.

Tier 2 – The Next Best Things

4	C.Kaepernick, 49ers
5	M.Ryan, Falcons
6	P.Manning, Broncos

These guys aren’t far from the top tier, but they all have slight amounts of risk. We haven’t seen Kaepernick play for a full 16 games yet, but he’s capable of delivering production similar to Cam Newton. Manning will put up stats equal to Drew Brees if healthy, but his past neck issues knock him down a tier. Matt Ryan is reliable, but doesn’t provide the back breaking point scoring weeks that the top group does.3

           Manning will not be on any of my teams, because for where he’s going in the third round, I’d much rather have either Cam Newton, a wide receiver, or Jimmy Graham. Kaepernick and Ryan are the best values at the position. They are fourth or fifth round picks (depending on league size), which means you could have your skill positions covered before you draft your franchise quarterback. Snag Kaepernick if your searching for sky-high potential, while Ryan provides a reliable floor that will not doom your team.

Tier 3 – The Head Scratchers

7	T.Romo, Cowboys
8	M.Stafford, Lions
9	A.Luck, Colts

            Equally adept at scoring 35 or 5 points in a given week, these will be the most frustrating quarterbacks to own. Fortunately, if you wait to draft these guys, your team should be deep enough that it could withstand a clunker from your quarterback. You’ll find Stafford in the seventh, Luck in the ninth, and Romo in the tenth. If I miss out on the QBs I highlighted in the first two tiers, these are the guys I’m waiting for.

Tier 4 – What’s Around These Guys?

10	R.Wilson, Seahawks
11	T.Brady, Patriots
12	B.Roethlisberger, Steelers
13	E.Manning, Giants

For Brady, Roethlisberger, and Manning, the only reason they are this low is my lack of trust in the talent around them. Brady is without Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, and maybe Ron Gronkowski for the first six weeks of the season. Big Ben will not have the services of Mike Wallace, and will more than likely have a physically limited Heath Miller. Eli Manning can’t fully count on a productive Hakeem Nicks, and even with him, his erratic-ness (even worse than my boy Romo, look at Eli’s week 8 through 10 last year) makes him difficult to have own. Wilson has the best situation of any of these guys, but Seattle ran the ball more than anyone last year, and I’m not convinced that Wilson will air it out any more this season.

(EDITORS NOTE: I think I still have a subliminal bias against Wilson after all of the jokes I made about him last year, so this rank probably isn’t fair)

Tier 5 – Too Many Questions For Me

14	M.Vick, Eagles
15	R.Griffin III, Redskins
16	J.Freeman, Buccaneers

            Vick and Freeman’s placement on this list are a given, but most of you will question why Robert Griffin III is this low. The reason is simple…I don’t trust that his leg will hold up. He might come back opening day at the same all world level he was playing at last year, but how long will he stay upright? RGIII is going in the middle of the sixth round in ten team leagues, which is insane when you’re talking about a position as deep as quarterback (remember last year when Adrian Peterson was a draft day question mark, runningback wasn’t nearly as deep). If I get the chance to pair him up with a guy like Roethlisberger at a discount price, I’m all for rolling the dice on Griffin, but I will not ask him to be my starting fantasy quarterback.

Tier 6 – The Bye Week Subs

17	J.Flacco, Ravens
18	A.Dalton, Bengals
19	M.Schaub, Texans
20	C.Palmer, Cardinals
21	P.Rivers, Chargers
22	S.Bradford, Rams
23	J.Cutler, Bears

You probably shouldn’t draft any of these guys unless you’re in a 12-team league or larger, or a league that starts two quarterbacks, but keep them in mind for bye weeks. Of this group, Carson Palmer provides the greatest upside.

Tier 7 – The Second Tier Bye Week Subs

24	M.Flynn, Raiders
25	A.Smith, Chiefs
26	R.Tannehill, Dolphins
27	J.Locker, Titans
28	K.Kolb, Bills

You absolutely shouldn’t draft any of these dudes, but keep an eye on Tannehill and Locker to see if they can be productive. 

Tier 8 – I Only Ranked Them to End at a Multiple of Five

29	C.Ponder, Vikings
30	N.Foles, Eagles
31	B.Weeden, Browns
32	E.Manuel, Bills
33	C.Henne, Jaguars
34	R.Fitzpatrick, Titans
35	M.Sanchez, Jets

            Not surprisingly, Blaine Gabbert was still too shitty to make the eighth tier.

No Credentials Top-12 Ranks, Cost Adjusted

            Based on the current average draft position in Yahoo drafts, here’s the ranking of which quarterbacks I would want the most on my team. In parenthesis is the average draft spot.

C.Kaepernick, 49ers (41.7)

C.Newton, Panthers (26.2)

M.Ryan, Falcons (47.3)

T.Romo, Cowboys (89.1)

M.Stafford, Lions (62.4)

A.Luck, Colts (79.9)

D.Brees, Saints (18.3)

B.Roethlisberger, Steelers (107.6)

E.Manning, Giants (103.2)

A.Rodgers, Packers (11.6)

P.Manning, Broncos (25.6)

T.Brady, Patriots (31.8)