2016 NFL Wildcard Sunday Picks

            Before we get to our Sunday picks, some thoughts on the incredibly bizarre finish between the Steelers and Bengals.

-         Man that was fucked.

-         Never do I recall a team committing 30 yards worth of personal foul penalties to give an opponent a chip shot field goal to win a game.

-         Anyone remember the old introductions to Madden in the late-90s that would show highlight reels of monster brain scrambling hits? Vontaze Burfict’s near-decapitation of Antonio Brown would’ve made the cut.

-         Cincinnati managed to surrender a game-winning drive to a quarterback who may or may not have a broken arm or something.

-         The ending was so ridiculous that I almost forgot about Martavius Bryant’s touchdown catch, which was insane.

-         We’re not they type for a knee-jerk reaction, but if I’m running the Bengals, I would seriously question whether or not Marvin Lewis should return for next season. A complete lack of discipline was ultimately what did the Bengals in (some would argue that it was Jeremy Hill’s fumble, but the Steelers still had to march half a football field to have a decent field goal attempt at the time of the recovery). Coaches instill discipline. Lewis had no control over his team, and it cost him his first playoff victory as a Head Coach.

Thankfully, the Bengals weren’t inept enough to not cover the +3 point spread, so we went undefeated with our Saturday picks. Here’s a look at the Sunday slate.

 

Seahawks (-5) over VIKINGS

            It was a nice story for the Vikings to capture their first division title in six years, but the run ends against a vastly superior Seahawks squad. In brutal weather, the Vikings will be lucky to rack up 150 total yards of offense.

Packers (+1) over WASHINGTON

            Green Bay has it’s flaws, but their strengths are perfectly suited to take advantage of Washington’s flaws. Aaron Rodgers will be able to pick apart a weak secondary that even the likes of Davante Adams can actually get open against, and Kirk Cousins will struggle against the seventh best pass defense in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE.

NFL Week 2 Picks

            Last week we did our best to stick to our pre-season predictions (only failing with the Bears-Bills game), and we rode that to the best Week 1 in the history of this blog. Sadly, we went against our pre-season prediction of the Steelers sucking when we backed them Thursday (although was there really any proper way to gauge how Baltimore was going to play in the wake of the Ray Rice scandal?), so we’re going back to basics for the rest of our Week 2 picks. 

           New wrinkles we are going to add each week with our picks is to highlight teams we feel are trending up or down. For our purposes, we will only relate that to how we forecasted each team to do before the season (for example we predicted the Giants to finish last in the NFC East, so there’s no reason for me to list them in the Stock Down section). We don’t like to overreact to Week 1, so there aren’t too many teams we are going to discuss.

Stock Up

Atlanta Falcons – Matt Ryan was head and shoulders above any other quarterback in the league with his Week 1 performance against the Saints. That level of play over an entire season can drag a mediocre roster into the playoffs.

Tennessee Titans – We announced earlier in the summer that my son would take over as the Titans quarterback in my Madden 15 franchise, so I was pleasantly surprised by Jake Locker’s performance at Arrowhead Stadium last week.

Indianapolis Colts – It’s weird typing this about a team that lost, but the Colts left a ton of points on the board against Denver. A few breaks here or there and Andrew Luck might’ve been able to steal the game from Peyton Manning. I wouldn’t of thought it possible before the season, but there is a chance they can finish as the second seed in the AFC.

Stock Down

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – You can’t lose a game at home to a team quarterbacked by Derek Anderson, regardless of the quality of defense your team is going against. There’s a good chance Josh McCown has turned into a pumpkin after his magical run with the Bears last year.

San Diego Chargers – It was trendy before the season to pick San Diego to upset the Broncos in the AFC West, but blowing an eleven-point lead to Carson Palmer shows the Chargers are the same frustrating team they’ve been for the better part of the last decade.

            Without further ado, the Week 2 picks.

1-0 Lions (+2.5) over 1-0 PANTHERS

            Detroit is well equipped to handle an overmatched Panthers secondary. We’re happy to get points here.

1-0 BILLS (Even) over 1-0 Dolphins

            Thankfully for Buffalo fans E.J. Manuel was just competent enough to deliver a shocking overtime win in Chicago. We like Buffalo’s chances of shutting down Miami’s offense.

0-1 Jaguars (+5.5) over 0-1 WASHINGTON

            Washington shouldn’t be favored by more than a field goal against any team in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE.

1-0 TITANS (-3.5) over 0-1 Cowboys

            Tennessee has plenty of talent at wide receiver to dominate the comically awful Cowboys defense.

0-1 GIANTS (+2.5) over 1-0 Cardinals

            We hate the Giants but the schedule makers did them a favor here. Arizona’s game against San Diego finished at roughly 1:15 am Eastern time on Tuesday, and now they have to travel three time zones and play at 1:00 pm Sunday.

0-1 Patriots (-6.5) over 1-0 VIKINGS

            New England was our pick before the news about Adrian Peterson not playing broke. This could be a blow out.

0-1 Saints (-6.5) over 0-1 BROWNS

            Somehow a two-team teaser with the Patriots and Saints won’t work, even though it looks so simple on paper.

1-0 Falcons (+5.5) over 1-0 BENGALS

            We have the Bengals winning by three.

1-0 BUCCANEERS (-6) over 0-1 Rams

            St. Louis looks well on their way to the top overall pick after a listless performance at home against the Vikings.

1-0 Seahawks (-6) over 0-1 CHARGERS

            Here’s a new rule for 2014…don’t bet against the Seahawks unless the spread is over a touchdown or they are on the road at San Francisco.

0-1 RAIDERS (+3) over 1-0 Texans

            After Oakland heroically pulled off a back door cover at New York, we’re happy to get three points with them against Houston.

0-1 PACKERS (-8) over 1-0 Jets

            Here’s your suicide pool pick.

1-0 BRONCOS (-12.5) over 0-1 Chiefs

            It’s a really weird line, but when Kansas City is down 14-0 in the first quarter do you really trust Alex Smith to cover?

1-0 49ERS (-7) over 0-1 Bears

            Rumor has it Curtis Conway might come out of retirement to catch passes from Jay Cutler this week. We’ll also predict over 200 yards rushing for San Francisco.

0-1 COLTS (-3) over 1-0 Eagles

            To say Philadelphia was a little wobbly against Jacksonville last week is an understatement. Andrew the Giant will take care of business at home.

           

Week 1 = 10-6

Thursday = 0-1

2014 NFC North Preview

4. Minnesota Vikings

2013 Record = 5-10-1, Last in NFC North, Missed Playoffs

2014 Schedule = @ Rams, Patriots, @ Saints, Falcons, @ Packers, Lions, @ Bills, @ Buccaneers, Redskins, BYE, @ Bears, Packers, Panthers, Jets, @ Lions, @ Dolphins, Bears

Blue Chippers = HB Adrian Peterson

High Quality Players = C John Sullivan, RG Brandon Fusco, RT Phil Loadholt
Solid Contributors = FB Jerome Felton, WR Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Greg Jennings, DE Brian Robison, DT Linval Joseph, CB Captain Munnerlyn, FS Harrison Smith
Impact Rookies = OLB Anthony Barr (1-9, UCLA), QB Teddy Bridgewater (1-32, Louisville), DE Scott Crichton (3-72, Oregon State)

Good News = They didn’t rehire Brad Childress.

Bad News = Starting in Week 2, they play a five week stretch where they will face Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, and Matthew Stafford. Ouch.

Outlook = With the exception of the improbable Brett Favre year in 2009, Minnesota has featured a mediocre revolving door at quarterback for the last decade. Teddy Bridgewater might be the man to change that, but we likely won’t find that out until 2015, as Minnesota appears set on grooming him on the bench this season. Matt Cassell will be the Week 1 starter, and he could have success with the pieces he has at the skill positions. Adrian Peterson is still one of the elite runningbacks in the game, but one has to wonder how many quality years he has left. Greg Jennings saw his production improve when Cassell was playing as opposed to Christian Ponder. Cordarrelle Patterson has a very long name, and also happens to be one of the most over hyped fantasy assets this season. Matt Cassel isn’t the right guy to take advantage of Patterson’s elite speed. Kyle Rudolph was disappointing last year overall, but like Jennings also performed better without Ponder in the lineup. The offensive line could reach elite status if Matt Kalil continues to improve during his sophomore campaign.

            Defensively is where Minnesota will run into the majority of it’s problems. They gave up more points than any other club in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE last year, and other than defensive guru Mike Zimmer taking over as Head Coach, there isn’t a reason to expect this unit to be any better. Jared Allen left for Chicago, leaving career backup Everson Griffen to fill his shoes. Chad Greenway is a tackling machine when healthy, but it’s unlikely he lasts a full 16 games. Captain Munnerlyn was their key signing for the secondary, but he’s not good enough to transform the entire defense.

Prediction = Peterson will win a game or two by himself, but shoddy quarterback play and poor defense won’t get Minnesota back to the postseason. 5-11

3. Chicago Bears

2013 Record = 8-8, Second in NFC North, Missed Playoffs

2014 Schedule = Bills, @ 49ers, @ Jets, Packers, @ Panthers, @ Falcons, Dolphins, @ Patriots, BYE, @ Packers, Vikings, Buccaneers, @ Lions, Cowboys, Saints, Lions, @ Vikings

Blue Chippers = WR Brandon Marshall

High Quality Players = WR Alshon Jeffery
Solid Contributors = QB Jay Cutler, HB Matt Forte, TE Martellus Bennett, LG Matt Slauson, DE LaMarr Houston, OLB Lance Briggs, CB Tim Jennings, CB Charles Tillman
Impact Rookies = CB Kyle Fuller (1-14, Virginia Tech)

Good News = For the first time since the 1940s, Chicago might finish as the most prolific offense in the NFC.

Bad News = Their defense didn’t get any younger.

Outlook = The Bears are set up to have another dynamic offensive season, but their win total hinges largely on the ability of their defense to at least be average. Last year, they were historically bad, surrendering the most points in franchise history. There were issues at every level of the defense, with the defensive line being the weakest link. Chicago was the worst against the run in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, and produced the second fewest sacks. Julius Peppers and his bloated salary were released, and Chicago replaced him with Jared Allen and LaMarr Houston. They didn’t do anything dramatic to address the defensive tackle position, which could be an Achilles’ Heal. Lance Briggs was the only linebacker who played with any kind of consistency in 2013, and once again will be asked to anchor the defense. Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings are one of the longest tenured cornerback duos in the league, and Kyle Fuller is an excellent heir apparent who will find plenty of playing time in nickel packages. Both safety spots were considered an open competition heading into training camp, and Chicago desperately needs someone to step up in those roles.

            The better the defense plays, the more opportunities an offense that finished second in total scoring will have the ball even more. Jay Cutler has been much maligned, but actually posted his most efficient season to date in 2013. A second year in Marc Trestman’s system should lead to further improvement. Matt Forte set career highs in receptions and total yards last year, and is the perfect tailback for what the Bears want to do on offense. Brandon Marshall has been established as an elite receiver for many years, but it was Alshon Jeffery’s emergence that pushed Chicago to another level offensively. Martellus Bennett wasn’t as spectacular, but also provided solid production not seen by a Chicago tight end since the days of Mike Ditka. The offensive line showed stunning progress from 2012, and with another year of continuity could make the leap to top-5 status by year’s end.

Prediction = We see Chicago as the Dallas Cowboys of the NFC North. There will be many entertaining games, but a weak defense and erratic quarterback play at the wrong time by Jay Cutler will keep the Bears near .500. 9-7

2. Detroit Lions

2013 Record = 7-9, Third in NFC North, Missed Playoffs

2014 Schedule = Giants, @ Panthers, Packers, @ Jets, Bills, @ Vikings, Saints, Falcons, BYE, Dolphins, @ Cardinals, @ Patriots, Bears, Buccaneers, Vikings, @ Bears, @ Packers

Blue Chippers = WR Calvin Johnson, DT Ndamukong Suh

High Quality Players = HB Joique Bell, RG Larry Warford, MLB Stephen Tulloch
Solid Contributors = QB Matthew Stafford, HB Reggie Bush, WR Golden Tate, C Dominic Raiola, DT Nick Fairley, FS Glover Quin
Impact Rookies = TE Eric Ebron (1-10, North Carolina), OLB Kyle Van Noy (2-40, BYU)

Good News = They fired Jim Schwarz.

Bad News = They hired Jim Caldwell.

Outlook = This will be one team that I spend very little time discussing the roster (you can see the names above, they have talent), because everything here has to do with the Head Coach. I don’t really believe in Jim Caldwell (hard to be inspired by a guy who doesn’t blink or show emotion on the sideline), but there’s a chance that anything is an improvement over Jim Schwarz. Detroit has felt like a team playing playground football the past few years with egregious personal foul calls and awful turnovers at the worst times. Caldwell was the Head Coach when the Colts made the Super Bowl in 2009, and also was the play-caller for the Ravens Super Bowl run in 2012. There’s a chance he provides Stafford with enough structure to increase his efficiency, pushing Detroit into dark horse contender status.

Prediction = Dumping the worst coach in football is worth a three win improvement. 10-6

1. Green Bay Packers

2013 Record = 8-7-1, NFC North Champions, Lost NFC Wildcard Game

2014 Schedule = @ Seahawks, Jets, @ Lions, @ Bears, Vikings, @ Dolphins, Panthers, @ Saints, BYE, Bears, Eagles, @ Vikings, Patriots, Falcons, @ Bills, @ Buccaneers, Lions

Blue Chippers = QB Aaron Rodgers, LG Josh Sitton, OLB Clay Matthews

High Quality Players = HB Eddie Lacy, WR Jordy Nelson
Solid Contributors = FB John Kuhn, WR Randall Cobb, RG T.J. Lang, DE Mike Daniels, CB Sam Shields, CB Casey Hayward
Impact Rookies = FS Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (1-21, Alabama), WR Davante Adams (2-53, Fresno State)

Good News = Ha Ha Clinton-Dix fell into their laps at 21, filling their biggest need on the roster.

Bad News = They were unable to adequately replace Jermichael Finley.

Outlook = It was somewhat of a minor miracle that the Green Bay Packers were able to make the playoffs after Aaron Rodgers missed seven starts due to a broken collarbone. If you prorate the time he played in 2013 over a full 16 games, Rodgers would’ve been on pace for his first 5,000 yard season. Randall Cobb also missed 10 games due to a broken leg, and his return is vital to provide a stable complement for Jordy Nelson. Jarrett Boykin and rookie Davante Adams will have the first chance to fill the shoes of James Jones, who departed for Oakland. Eddie Lacy proved in his first season that he can be a workhorse, and a full season paired with Rodgers could lead to the most rushing touchdowns in the league. The most glaring hole on the Packers offense is the lack of a receiving tight end, as new starter Andrew Quarless is not a dynamic athlete.

            The Packers defense was exposed last year without Aaron Rodgers piling up points on the offensive side of the ball. They’ve already taken a big hit with B.J. Raji suffering a season ending injury during the pre-season. Veteran Julius Peppers was brought in to play a mix of defensive end and outside linebacker, and should ease some pressure off of Clay Matthews. Tramon Williams was a disaster during the first eight games of the year, but while the rest of the defense crumbled during the second half actually performed closer to his level of play during the Packers Super Bowl run in 2010.

Prediction = Assuming a full 16 games from Rodgers, Green Bay will once again be the class of the NFC North. 11-5

Click here to read about the AFC East

Click here to read about the NFC East
Click here to read about the AFC South
Click here to read about the NFC South
Click here to read about the AFC North
Click here to read about the AFC West

NFL Wildcard Round Picks

Cincinnati Bengals (10-6) @ Houston Texans (12-4)
Saturday, 4:30pm, NBC, O/U 43
            Here’s what will happen with the Houston Texans over the course of the next week. Everyone and their brother are picking Cincinnati to win outright based on Houston’s late season swoon. The Texans are going to proceed to beat Cincinnati by two touchdowns, leading to all the talking heads screaming, “THE TEXANS ARE BACK. THEY WILL BE A FORCE IN THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE.” Then, they will lose by 30 to the Patriots.

HOU 31, CIN 17       

TEXANS (-4.5) over Bengals
 

Minnesota Vikings (10-6) @ Green Bay Packers (11-5)

Saturday, 8:00pm, NBC, O/U 46
            Too much Christian Ponder in this game counteracts the presence of Adrian Peterson on the road at Lambeau. Also, Green Bay should have a bye if it weren’t for what the replacement refs did to them in Seattle, so karma is on their side.

GB 34, MIN 20

PACKERS (-8) over Vikings
 

Indianapolis Colts (11-5) @ Baltimore Ravens (10-6)

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 47
            I’m willing to bet that at least half of the Baltimore roster knew that Ray Lewis was going to retire, so I’m not buying the belief that added motivation exists. That and you don’t bet against #CHUCKSTRONG, at least in the wildcard round.

IND 20, BAL 17

Colts (+7) over RAVENS

Seattle Seahawks (11-5) @ Washington Redskins (10-6)

Sunday, 4:30pm, FOX, O/U 46
            Loyal readers (all six of you) will note that this match-up features the two teams I made fun of the most during the preseason. I’m pretty sure I predicted both teams to win eight games combined (oops!), so it’s only natural that they play each other in what some talking heads are predicting is the real NFC Championship Game. I won’t go that far, but this pick comes down to simple logic. How is a 3-5 road team favored to win at Washington?

WAS 27, SEA 21

REDSKINS (+3) over Seahawks

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Weekend (12/28-12/30)

10. Hideki Matsui Retires
            Matsui easily ranks as one of my five favorite Yankees of the 2000s. Affectionately nicknamed “Chief Matsui” in the greater Mount Washington Valley area, he will be best remembered as the best Japanese baseball import not named Ichiro Suzuki.

9. Clippers Win 17^th in a Row

            Kobe Bryant and the rest of the Lakers’ organization have every right to acknowledge the Clippers as the better NBA team in Los Angeles.

8. Patriots Dominate Dolphins

7. Broncos Clobber Chiefs
            With both teams snagging first round byes Sunday, it’s hard to fathom which of the other four AFC Playoff teams will prevent a Manning-Brady AFC Championship Game battle.

6. Eagles Officially Quit on Andy Reid

5. Giants Eliminated From Postseason Contention
            When it was 21-0 with two minutes left in the first quarter, I was starting to feel bad for Andy Reid, but then I remembered all the times his Eagles used to beat the crap out of the pathetic Cowboys in the early 2000s. His gross mismanagement of timeouts, challenges, and the play clock will be sorely missed. As for the Giants, I couldn’t be happier that they will be starting their off-season early.
           
4. Cain Velasquez Rocks Junior Dos Santos
            We’ll give Dos Santos a Tommy Point for fighting the final three rounds with a broken jaw.

3. Redskins Win the NFC East
            For those of you that bet a backbreaking Tony Romo interception would lead to doom for the Cowboys, pat yourselves on the back.

2. Chuck Pagano Returns to the Colts Sideline, Colts Beat Texans

            No Credentials has really dropped the ball on the story of Pagano, who made his emotional return in the Colts final home game. Kudos to them for wrecking the Texans opportunity for home-field advantage.

1. Minnesota Vikings Complete Stunning Run to the Playoffs

            The best result of Sunday afternoon’s back and forth, highflying shootout between Aaron Rodgers and Adrian Peterson? They get to do it again Saturday night at Lambeau Field.

Week 17 Picks

            Sadly, we’ve reached the end of the NFL regular season. This year, it’s extra sad, because No Credentials is as dialed in as it’s ever been with NFL prognostication. Riding a 24-8 run the past two weeks, here’s the Week 17 picks.

BILLS (-3) over Jets

BENGALS (-2.5) over Ravens

STEELERS (-6) over Browns

Texans (-7) over COLTS

Jaguars (+4) over TITANS

Eagles (+7) over GIANTS

Bears (-3) over LIONS

SAINTS (-5) over Panthers

Buccaneers (+3.5) over FALCONS

PATRIOTS (-10) over Dolphins

Packers (-3.5) over VIKINGS

Chiefs (+16) over BRONCOS

CHARGERS (-7) over Raiders

49ERS (-16.5) over Cardinals

Rams (+11) over SEAHAWKS

REDSKINS (-3) over Cowboys

 

Last Week = 12-4

Season = 133-102-5

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Weekend (12/21-12/23)

10. The World Didn’t Explode
            I can now say that I’ve lived through Y2K, The Rapture, and the Mayan Apocalypse. I look forward to the next doomsday prediction.

9. Nick Swisher Joins the Indians

            This doesn’t have any relation to real-life, but I thought it would be a good time to mention that Nick Swisher was one of the main components I gave away in a 4-for-1 deal for Buster Posey in the No Credentials keeper league. 

8. Lionel Messi Ends 2012 With 91 Goals

            For those not in the know, that’s a lot of fucking goals.

7. Temple Knocks Off #3 Syracuse

            Here’s your obligatory mention of a big college basketball upset that I really don’t give a shit about, sponsored by Mentos.

6. Calvin Johnson Sets Record For Single-Season Receiving Yardage

            Glad something positive came out of the poop sandwich that was the 2012 Detroit Lions.

5. Dirk Returns

            We’ll ignore the fact that the Spurs beat Dallas by 29 points and simply celebrate the return of the big goofy German.
           
4. Vikings Stun Texans
            I’d like to formally apologize to anyone whose fantasy football fate depended on or Adrian Peterson Arian Foster.

3. Andrew Luck Leads Colts Back to Postseason
            They are going to lose by 25 to the Ravens in the Wildcard Round, but a playoff appearance in his rookie season with his less than stellar supporting cast is a stunning accomplishment.

2. Cincinnati Eliminates Steelers, Earns Wildcard Berth

            Fortunately this game didn’t happen on 12-21-12, or else the world surely would’ve ended.

1. Cowboys Rally, Still Lose to Saints in Overtime

            I’m overjoyed that the Giants choke job ensures that the Cowboys will blow another Week 17 opportunity to win the NFC East.   

2012 NFC North Preview

            Here’s the NFC North, aka “the worst possible division for the Vikings to play in”.

4. Minnesota Vikings

2011 Record = 3-13, Last in NFC North

2012 Schedule = JAC, @ IND, SF, @ DET, TEN, @ WAS, ARI, TB, @ SEA, DET, BYE, @ CHI, @ GB, CHI, @ STL, @ HOU, GB

Franchise Players = QB Christian Ponder, RB Adrian Peterson, WR Percy Harvin, DT Kevin Williams, DE Jared Allen

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = TE John Carlson
Potential Impact Rookies = T Matt Kalil (USC) 1-4, S Harrison Smith (Notre Dame) 1-29, CB Josh Robinson (Central Florida) 3-3

Outlook = Minnesota has some elite talent, but unfortunately had no one to block for their quarterback or defend opposing wide receivers. This year’s rookie class will help (especially Kalil, who looks like a franchise tackle), but being stuck in the most hellacious division in football doesn’t help their chances of making a surprise playoff run. They should consider the season a success if Christian Ponder establishes himself as a viable NFL starter, regardless of how many games they win.

Ceiling = 6-10

Floor = 2-14
No Credentials Prediction = 4-12

3. Detroit Lions

2011 Record = 10-6, Second in NFC North, Lost in NFC Wildcard Game

2012 Schedule = STL, @ SF, @ TEN, MIN, BYE, @ PHI, @ CHI, SEA, @ JAC, @ MIN, GB, HOU, IND, @ GB, @ ARI, ATL, CHI

Franchise Players = QB Matthew Stafford, WR Calvin Johnson, TE Brandon Pettigrew, DT Ndamukong Suh, DT Nick Fairley, K Jason Hanson

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = S Sean Jones
Potential Impact Rookies = T Riley Reiff (Iowa) 1-23, CB Dwight Bentley (Louisiana-Lafayette) 3-22, LB Ronnell Lewis (Oklahoma) 4-30

Outlook = Other than the Cowboys of the mid-90s, you’ll be hard pressed to find a club that was successful despite numerous off the field distractions. Detroit went for the team record for most off-season arrests (unfortunately, the 2005 Bengals can’t be touched in that department), which puts a damper on all of the hope generated by their wildcard berth last season. Detroit will still be exciting (how could Stafford to Megatron not be?), but look for a few of their 2011 comeback victories to morph into a few gut wrenching losses this season.

Ceiling = 12-4

Floor = 6-10
No Credentials Prediction = 7-9

2. Chicago Bears

2011 Record = 8-8, Third in NFC North

2012 Schedule = IND, @ GB, STL, @ DAL, @ JAC, BYE, DET, CAR, @ TEN, HOU, @ SF, MIN, SEA, @ MIN, GB, @ ARI, @ DET

Franchise Players = QB Jay Cutler, RB Matt Forte, WR-KR Devin Hester, DE Julius Peppers, LB Brian Urlacher, LB Lance Briggs, K Robbie Gould

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = QB Jason Campbell, RB Michael Bush, WR Brandon Marshall, CB Kelvin Hayden
Potential Impact Rookies = LB Shea McClellin (Boise State) 1-19, WR Alshon Jeffery (South Carolina) 2-13

Outlook = A promising start to the 2011 season was derailed by season ending injuries to Jay Cutler and Matt Forte. Caleb Hanie threw together some of the worst starts in NFL history, which makes Chicago’s acquisition of Jason Campbell a wise move. The addition of Brandon Marshall provides Cutler with his best receiver since joining the Bears in 2009. Throw in rookie Alshon Jeffery (who has a bit of Kenny Britt to him, and I’m not talking about on the field), and Chicago should have its best passing attack since the glory days of Erik Kramer, Curtis Conway, and Jeff Graham (editors note: those glory days all happened during the 1995 season). Green Bay has more talent on paper, but the Bears aren’t that far behind.

Ceiling = 13-3

Floor = 8-8
No Credentials Prediction = 12-4

1. Green Bay Packers

 

2011 Record = 15-1, First in NFC North, Lost in NFC Divisional Game

2012 Schedule = SF, CHI, @ SEA, NO, @ IND, @ HOU, @ STL, JAC, ARI, BYE, @ DET, @ NYG, MIN, DET, @ CHI, TEN, @ MIN

Franchise Players = QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Greg Jennings, WR Jordy Nelson, TE Jermichael Finley, DT B.J. Raji, LB Clay Matthews, CB/S Charles Woodson

Key Free Agent Acquisitions = C Jeff Saturday, DE Anthony Hargrove
Potential Impact Rookies = DE Nick Perry (USC) 1-28, DT Jerel Worthy (Michigan State) 2-19, CB Casey Hayward (Vanderbilt) 2-30

Outlook = Has there ever been a more disappointing playoff team than last seasons Packers? After rolling through the regular season, Green Bay laid an egg at home against the Giants. Rather than go bonkers adding free agents, Green Bay addressed their defense deficiencies in the draft. If you’re willing to bet that the defense returns to its 2010 level of play, this should be the best team in football.

Ceiling = 14-2

Floor = 9-7
No Credentials Prediction = 13-3

Click here to read about the AFC East
Click here to read about the AFC North

Click here to read about the AFC South
Click here to read about the AFC West
Click here to read about the NFC East
Click here to read about the NFC South
Click here to read about the NFC West

 

2011 NFC North Preview

4. Chicago Bears

2010 Record = 11-5, 1^st in Division (Lost NFC Championship Game vs. Packers)

Key Additions = RB Marion Barber, WR Roy Williams, DT Amobi Akoye, C Chris Spencer
Key Losses = C Olin Kreutz, S Daniel Manning, DT Tommie Harris

Schedule = Falcons, @ Saints, Packers, Panthers, @ Lions, Vikings, @ Buccaneers, BYE, @ Eagles, Lions, Chargers, @ Raiders, Chiefs, @ Broncos, Seahawks, @ Packers, @ Vikings

Real-Life Outlook = Chicago was one of the greatest smoke and mirrors team we’ve seen in a long time in 2010. Despite the inability to block for Jay Cutler and Matt Forte, and lack of a number one receiver, the Bears still were able to steal a division championship. They even had the good fortune of getting the Seahawks at home in the divisional round, while top-seeded Atlanta got stuck dealing with Green Bay (we all know how that turned out). The clock finally struck midnight for the Bears against the Packers in the NFC Championship Game, and I’m willing to bet that Chicago will not be so lucky this season. Any team that gives up as many sacks as Chicago is bound for a disastrous season. Everyone likes to rag on Cutler, but it will be the shoddy players blocking for him that will undo this team.

Fantasy Outlook = Cutler has the talent to be an elite fantasy quarterback (he was an elite QB during his last season in Denver), but his supporting cast relegates him to back-up duty in the fantasy game. Matt Forte is a name to consider in PPR leagues, but don’t be shocked if Marion Barber steals goal line carries. All relevant Bears’ wide outs should be drafted, as the potential is there for one of them to break out. So far Roy Williams has been the most impressive in training camp, but also keep an eye on Johnny Knox and Devin Hester.

Ceiling = 13-3

Floor = 3-13
No Credentials Prediction = 5-11

3. Minnesota Vikings

2010 Record = 6-10, 4^th in Division

Key Additions = QB Donovan McNabb, T Charlie Johnson
Key Losses = WR Sidney Rice, DE Ray Edwards, QB Brett Favre, T Bryant McKinnie, LB Ben Leber, S Madieu Williams

Schedule = @ Chargers, Buccaneers, Lions, @ Chiefs, Cardinals, @ Bears, Packers, @ Panthers, BYE, @ Packers, Raiders, @ Falcons, Broncos, @ Lions, Saints, @ Redskins, Bears

Real-Life Outlook = Minnesota’s 2010 campaign was just like Chicago’s, except it was the exact opposite. It’s a shame the 2010 Vikings weren’t around eight years ago, because ESPN could’ve saved money on filming “Playmakers” and just followed the Vikings around for four months. Fortunately for Vikings’ fans, things are looking up. Gone is quarterback Brett Favre (and Brett Favre’s cellphone). Gone is Brad Childress and his horrendous play-calling, decision making, and creepy look of a guy that could show up on one of NBC’s “To Catch a Predator” specials. Gone is the hole in The Metrodome’s roof (watch this video to see how excited Jared Allen is to play there again). I’m expecting the Vikings to be a much more run oriented football team this season, which will mean big things from Adrian Peterson. Depending on how well the defense plays (their secondary still appears to be a major concern), this could be a team that makes a surprise run at a wildcard spot. I wouldn’t bet on it, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.    

Fantasy Outlook = With the offense getting lost in the hands of Brett Favre the past two seasons, it seemed like Minnesota forgot they employed arguably the most talented back in the NFL. No Credentials is expecting a huge year from AP (as evidenced by his status as the first pick in the No Credentials Fantasy Football Mock Draft, sponsored by Prompto. Need an oil change? Go to Prompto Baby!). Unless the league you’re in awards points for hand-offs, don’t rely on Donovan McNabb as your regular starter. Percy Harvin has been migraine free for months now, and is the clear #1 receiver going into the season. If he can stay healthy, don’t be shocked if catches 80 passes for 1,100 yards.

Ceiling = 11-5
Floor = 4-12
No Credentials Prediction = 7-9

2. Detroit Lions

2010 Record = 6-10, 3^rd in Division

Key Additions = LB Stephen Tulloch, LB Justin Durant, CB Eric Wright, RB Jerome Harrison
Key Losses = LB Julian Peterson

Schedule = @ Buccaneers, Chiefs, @ Vikings, @ Cowboys, Bears, 49ers, Falcons, @ Broncos, BYE, @ Bears, Panthers, Packers, @ Saints, Vikings, @ Raiders, Chargers, @ Packers

Real-Life Outlook = No beaten down fan base should have more reason for optimism than the fans of the Detroit Lions. After nearly a decade of futility under Matt Millen (remember Millen taking a wide receiver in the first round three straight seasons?), the franchise finally looks like it has a sense of direction. Their defensive tackle tandem has a chance to be the best interior line pair for the next decade. Behind the two behemoths, the Lions have shored up their linebacking corps. Detroit is one solid corner away from having a top-5 defense.

            Offensively, the success of this team hinges entirely on whether or not the offensive line can help keep Matthew Stafford’s shoulders in their sockets. Stafford has suffered three separated shoulders so far during his NFL career. He flashed tremendous upside when healthy last season (6 touchdown passes to only one interception), so keeping him healthy and upright is of utmost importance. All in all, while I expect Detroit to be a tough team to play week in and week out, look for 2012 to be the year the Lions bust into the playoff picture.
Fantasy Outlook = Calvin Johnson is the one sure-fire fantasy stud employed by the Lions. A healthy Stafford for 16 games should propel Megatron to a career season, and maybe even the best fantasy year for a wide receiver in 2011. Stafford is a great player to target if you plan on using two quarterbacks (and picking the one with the best match-up week to week) throughout the season. Jahvid Best has the talent to deliver a similar statistical line to what LeSean McCoy put up last season, but be prepared for an injury or two to keep him out of action. He’s a very risky option as your second runningback.

Ceiling = 12-4

Floor = 4-12
No Credentials Prediction = 9-7

1. Green Bay Packers

2010 Record = 10-6, 2^nd in Division (Won Super Bowl)

Key Additions = None
Key Losses = DE Cullen Jenkins, LB Nick Barnett, G Daryn Colledge

Schedule = Saints, @ Panthers, @ Bears, Broncos, @ Falcons, Rams, @ Vikings, BYE, @ Chargers, Vikings, Buccaneers, @ Lions, @ Giants, Raiders, @ Chiefs, Bears, Lions

Real-Life Outlook = It would’ve been more accurate for me to list all of the players that the Packers won the Super Bowl without last season because of injuries as key additions. Green Bay was without Ryan Grant, Donald Driver, Jermichael Finley, and Charles Woodson by the time the Super Bowl ended. Green Bay is still one of the youngest teams in the league, with a core that is poised to enter it’s prime. The best thing that’s happened for the Packers is all the hoopla surrounding the Philadelphia Eagles and their off-season additions. It’s not often that a defending Super Bowl champion gets to fly under the radar.

Fantasy Outlook = Aaron Rodgers will be the second quarterback taken in your fantasy draft (unless you’re league is full of dog lovers, then he will probably go first). He’ll come off the board sometime before pick 10. 4,500 yards and 35 touchdowns is not an outlandish prediction for a quarterback of Rodgers talent combined with the resources he has to work with. Greg Jennings should come off the board anywhere from picks 21 through 30. Jermichael Finley had his breakout 2010 campaign shut down by a knee injury, but appears fully healthy coming into this season. Finley is ranked as the second best tight end in fantasy by No Credentials. Jordy Nelson and James Jones should also be drafted as bye-week subs.
            The most interesting battle in Green Bay’s training camp/pre-season is the competition between Ryan Grant and James Starks for the starting runningback gig. Grant was a workhorse for the Packers ever since assuming the starting role halfway through the 2007 season, but blew his knee out in the first game of 2010. Starks was used sparingly until week 15, but was a monster during Green Bay’s improbable Super Bowl run. If you can, it would be wise to draft both of them and see which one emerges as the most productive player. Green Bay will have plenty of red-zone scoring opportunities. Personally, I would prefer to take Starks in round 9 or 10 as opposed to taking Grant in round 4 or 5.

Ceiling = 15-1

Floor = 11-5
No Credentials Prediction = 14-2

the AFC North
the AFC South
the AFC West
the NFC East
the NFC South
the NFC West

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Past Weekend (12/10-12/12)

10. Big Ten Names New Divisions For 2011

I cheated for this one, because this actually happened today, but the names the Big Ten came up with for their divisions are so ridiculous I had to write about them. Seriously, “Leaders” and “Legends” are the best names they could come up with? Hopefully a Babe Ruth league based out of Arkansas won’t sue them for copyright infringement.

            I did some hack research on the Internet, and was able to uncover the list of names that didn’t quite make the cut. Here they are.

1. Apples and Oranges
2. Captain and Tennille
3. Sonny and Cher
4. SpongeBob and Patrick
5. The One and The Only
6. Red Bull and Jagermeister
7. Seinfeld and Costanza
8. McDouble and Cool Ranch Doritos
9. Backstreet Boys and N’Sync
10. Deep Dish and Thin Crust

9. Ovechkin Goes Bonkers

            I’ll keep this short because roughly 1% of my audience cares about hockey. The Washington Capitals were getting pummeled by the New York Rangers on Sunday. Alex Ovechkin got angry and tried to fight everyone on the Rangers. It was a good time.

8. St. Pierre Dominates Again at UFC 124

            It took GSP about 30 seconds to make Josh Koscheck’s right eye look like it had gotten hit by a watermelon that was traveling 50 mph directly at his face.   

7. Florida Steals Mack Brown’s Chosen Successor From Texas

            What would you do if the best job in your chosen field was promised to you in five years, but you had a chance to take the second best gig right now? You’re instincts would probably be to wait, but after Conan O’Brien’s harrowing case with NBC, I think it makes sense to take the job that’s open right now. Kudos to Will Muschamp.

6. “The Cliff Lee Saga” Continues

            ESPN.com officially dubbed the Cliff Lee free agency chase a “saga” today on their homepage. Hey, if it worked for the folks at “Twilight”, then why not give it a shot to drum up interest.

5. New England Patriots Destroy Chicago

            What happened when an unstoppable force (Patriots offense) met an immovable object (Bears defense)? We found out that the Bears were very, very movable.

4. Cowboys Runningback Tashard Choice Asks For Michael Vick’s Autograph

            While watching this happen live, I found it odd that a player on a team that just lost would ask the opposing team’s quarterback for an autograph. This is an event that definitely wouldn’t of happened back in the day. 

3. Clippers Owner Donald Sterling Heckles His Starting Point Guard

            This story is all the more hilarious when you remember that Sterling is paying Baron Davis $13 million to play point guard this season.

2. Jets Assistant Coach Trips Dolphins Player During a Play

            As brash as the Jets are, it’s no surprise that their strength and conditioning coach was way too obvious while tripping the Dolphins gunner on a punt. Did he think he could pull this off without one of the 212 cameras used for telecasts catching it?

1. Metrodome Roof Collapses

            It’s a shame that Brad Childress still wasn’t the head coach of the Vikings. He could’ve blamed the roof collapse on Brett Favre.

Brad Childress - "Fire Me Already!"

Minneapolis (AP) – Minnesota Vikings Head Coach Brad Childress has actively been trying to get fired since after the 2006 season, according to a confidant of Childress. The confidant (who wishes to remain anonymous) says that Childress realized he was in over his head shortly after his first season with the Vikings, and has been trying to get out ever since.

            “Brad had never had head coaching job before joining the Vikings,” says the confidant, “He’s not a fan of keeping track of the clock, deciding if they should go for it on 4^th down, managing timeouts. It’s just not his thing.”

            Childress sent an e-mail to his confidant Thursday afternoon. In it, he ranted about all the things he should have been fired for.

            “I billed Tavaris Jackson as the next Donovan McNabb, and played him for 2 seasons when it was already painfully obvious that he wasn’t competent,” Childress wrote, “Then I publicly feuded with Brett Favre, a guy that I picked up from the airport myself when he arrived in Minneapolis. And how many more times do I have to run Adrian Peterson into a 10 person wall on 4^th and 1 before someone realizes I’m an idiot?”

            His survival of the Randy Moss debacle has Childress truly perplexed. “We go out and trade a 3^rd round pick for a guy to help our football team. 3^rd round picks are kind of valuable, you know? They don’t just grow on trees. So we give up a 3^rd round pick, and then I go ahead and cut the guy 4 games later, without ownership’s knowledge of that decision. Isn’t this the dumbest thing that’s ever happened in the history of the NFL? If you told me that a guy paid a 3^rd round draft pick for a 4-week rental, I would tell you that that guy has to go.”

            Another source within the Vikings organization passed along a list found on Childress’ desk. The list was titled, “Things That Should Get Me Fired, But Probably Won’t Because I Haven’t Been Fired Yet”. The list included the following items.

-         Run the option on every single play for an entire game. After it fails miserably, blame Brett Favre for not picking the right hole to run to on his broken ankle.

-         Inject Adrian Peterson with horse tranquilizers. If those could down Keith Moon, they can take down anyone.

-         Ask Brett Favre for Jenn Sterger’s phone number.

-         Lobby owner Zygi Wilf to trade a 2^nd round pick to the Titans for Randy Moss.

-         As motivation before a game, play episodes of the children’s cartoon “Little Bear” in the locker room.

-         At a press conference, explain to the media why Brett Favre is the reason the terrorists hate us.

Only time will tell how much longer Childress will hang on to his job. What is certain is that the drama in Minnesota will go on for the rest of the season.