2015 Week 7 NFL Picks

Bills (-4.5) over Jaguars
RAMS (-6.5) over Browns
Steelers (+3) over CHIEFS
DOLPHINS (-5) over Texans
Jets (+8) over PATRIOTS
Vikings (-1.5) over LIONS
TITANS (+6.5) over Falcons
Buccaneers (+3.5) over WASHINGTON
COLTS (-5) over Saints
CHARGERS (-4) over Raiders
GIANTS (-3) over Cowboys
PANTHERS (-3.5) over Eagles
CARDINALS (-9) over Ravens

2015 Week 6 NFL Picks

BROWNS (+4.5) over Broncos

            Cleveland’s defense is good enough to keep this a low scoring affair.

Bengals (-3) over BILLS

            In E.J. Manuel we do not trust.

VIKINGS (-4) over Chiefs

            This is a pivotal game if Minnesota intends to secure a wildcard spot in the NFC.

JAGUARS (-2) over Texans

            No J.J. Watt spells trouble against the surprisingly spunky Jaguars passing attack.

LIONS (-3.5) over Bears

            It’s hard to back Detroit after their stink bomb they laid last Sunday, but one needs to remember that was only six days after they should’ve had first and goal on the one-yard line at Seattle.

Washington (+7) over JETS

            This pick is based solely on our belief that the NFC is the superior conference.

Cardinals (-4.5) over STEELERS

            The funkiest game on the Week 6 slate.

Dolphins (+2) over TITANS

            We like the upgrade from Joe Philbin to literally any other human being on planet Earth.

Panthers (+7) over SEAHAWKS

            Both clubs may have trouble combining to score seven points.

PACKERS (-10.5) over Chargers

            Scoring won’t be an issue here, but we like Green Bay in a rout after San Diego gave a win away against a washed up Michael Vick.

Ravens (-2) over 49ERS

            I honestly have no idea how to pick this game. Normally we say take the points, but our picks have been so awful the past couple of weeks we’re veering the other way.

Patriots (-10) over COLTS

            REVENGE!

EAGLES (-4.5) over Giants

            Another case of us veering against our default choice of taking the points.

 

Week 5 = 7-6-1

Thursday =0-1

Season = 36-39-3

Spread Picks By Team

Packers = 5-0

Vikings = 4-0

Patriots = 3-0-1

Lions = 4-1

Titans = 3-1

Seahawks = 3-1-1

Washington = 3-2

Rams = 3-2

49ers = 3-2

Chiefs = 3-2

Colts = 3-2

Jaguars = 3-2

Broncos = 3-2

Falcons = 3-3

Texans = 2-2

Browns = 2-3

Eagles = 2-3

Giants = 2-3

Bears = 2-3

Chargers = 2-3

Bills = 2-3

Cowboys = 2-3

Steelers = 1-2-2

Bengals = 1-3-1

Dolphins = 1-3

Jets = 1-3

Raiders = 1-4

Buccaneers = 1-4

Cardinals = 1-4

Ravens = 0-4-1

Panthers = 0-4

Saints = 0-6

2015 Week 4 NFL Picks

Dolphins (+2) over Jets 

            Both of these teams were junk in Week 3, so we’ll take the points.

COLTS (-9.5) over Jaguars

            If Andrew Luck doesn’t play, the line is going to be Colts (-4.5). We’ll take them regardless.

FALCONS (-6.5) over Texans

            So far Atlanta has played the offensively challenged Eagles, the clock management indifferent Giants, and the Romo-less Cowboys. You can add a team quarterbacked by Ryan Mallet to that list.

BUCCANEERS (+3.5) over Panthers

            Like their fellow NFC South members in Atlanta, the Panthers haven’t defeated any playoff caliber teams, and needed a late interception to prevent a team quarterbacked by Josh McCown from beating them last week. Tampa is competent enough to at least cover.

BILLS (-5) over Giants

            Karlos Williams fully unleashed!

Raiders (-3.5) over BEARS

            It feels wrong to pick the Raiders to cover on the road for a 1pm start two weeks in a row to push their record to 3-1, but I suppose stranger things have happened. Also, the Bears suck.

Eagles (-3) over WASHINGTON

            I don’t believe in the Eagles yet, but like clockwork Kirk Cousins turned into a pumpkin just before the calendar turned to October.

BENGALS (-4.5) over Chiefs

            I could totally see Cincinnati having a let down after their dramatic win in Baltimore last week, but I don’t possess the testicular fortitude to pick it.

            Actually, nevermind.

Chiefs (+4.5) over BENGALS

            Cincy wins this one by 3.

CHARGERS (-7.5) over Browns

            I’m not sure San Diego is good enough to be favored by 7.5 points over anyone, but Cleveland certainly isn’t good enough to be picked in a West Coast game.

Packers (-9.5) over 49ERS

            Aaron Rodgers has had a grudge against the 49ers ever since they chose Alex Smith over him in the 2005 NFL Draft, and for the first time he gets to pick on them while they are weak and feeble. Also, he just destroyed Alex Smith last Monday, which is weird.   

Vikings (+7) over BRONCOS

            It’s strange to say we like the under in a game featuring Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson, but it’s important to not live in the past. Minnesota’s defense is good enough to capitalize on Peyton’s noodle arm, and Denver’s defense is stout enough to keep Peterson in check.

CARDINALS (-7) over Rams

            Of all the results from Week 3, St. Louis not managing to comeback against a team quarterbacked by Michael Vick topped the list of most disappointing.

Cowboys (+3.5) over SAINTS

            Dallas crumbled like a sugar cookie in the second half against the Falcons, and we’re hopeful they learned from their mistakes and will stick to the running game Sunday night.

SEAHAWKS (-10) over Lions

            With or without Beast Mode, the Seahawks will roll.

 

Week 3 = 7-9

Thursday = 0-0-1 (thanks for terrible fourth down decisions Mike Tomlin)

Season = 24-24-2

Spread Picks By Team

            Here are our updated results picking for each team. Here are some weird trends so far.

-         All five of the teams we have correctly picked every game this season are from the NFC.

-         Three of them are from the NFC North. We are 11-1 picking teams in this division.

-         Of our 0-3 clubs, three of them hail from the miserable NFC South.

-         11 out of the 17 teams that we are .500 or better are NFC squads. The Patriots are the only AFC team we haven’t lost a pick with (they pushed in Week 1 against Pittsburgh).

Washington = 3-0

Packers = 3-0

Vikings = 3-0

Lions = 3-0

Seahawks = 3-0

Patriots = 2-0-1

Browns = 2-1

Eagles = 2-1

Giants = 2-1

Bears = 2-1

Falcons = 2-1

Rams = 2-1

49ers = 2-1

Titans = 2-1

Chiefs = 2-1

Chargers = 2-1

Steelers = 1-1-2

Bills = 1-2

Dolphins = 1-2

Colts = 1-2

Jaguars = 1-2

Broncos = 1-2

Cowboys = 1-2

Jets = 1-2

Texans = 1-2

Ravens = 0-3-1

Bengals = 0-3

Raiders = 0-3

Saints = 0-3

Buccaneers = 0-3

Panthers = 0-3

Cardinals = 0-3

2015 Week 3 NFL Picks

RAMS (+1) over Steelers

            This game will be decided by three points or less. I guess we’ll take the point.

VIKINGS (-2.5) over Chargers

            Adrian Peterson looked pretty good last week. We expect him to go Supernova against San Diego.

Buccaneers (+6.5) over TEXANS

            I can’t wrap my head around the fact that a team quarterbacked by Ryan Mallett is favored to win by a touchdown.

JETS (-2) over Eagles

            The Jets are going to blitz the living hell out of Sam Bradford.

PANTHERS (-8) over Saints

            New Orleans is a car fire. Carolina might only score ten points and still cover the spread.

PATRIOTS (-14) over Jaguars

            I let myself down by not backing the Jaguars for one more game last week (they should’ve covered in Week 1 if not for an awful pick-6 by Blake Bortles). There’s back-door cover potential here, but we’re still picking the Patriots.

RAVENS (-2.5) over Bengals

            It’s disheartening for No Credentials that our pick to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl this year is playing a must-win game in Week 3.

BROWNS (-3.5) over Raiders

            Last week’s Steelers-49ers game was further proof of the peril west coast teams face when they play 1 p.m. east coast games. That’s why this line is at least a point higher than you think it should be, and why the Browns will still cover.

Colts (-3.5) over TITANS

            We’re guessing an AFC South opponent is just what the Colts need to right the ship.

COWBOYS (+1.5) over Falcons

            Atlanta’s lack of a pass rush combined with the Cowboys’ elite offensive line means Brandon Weeden should have ample time to “beautifully” throw the football (Jerry Jones’ words, not mine).

49ers (+6.5) over CARDINALS

            We may have under estimated Arizona (can someone ask Carson Palmer to pee in a cup already?), but Niners-Cardinals games historically have been close affairs.

SEAHAWKS (-14.5) over Bears

            The line would have to be over three touchdowns for me to even consider taking Chicago.

DOLPHINS (-2.5) over Bills

            Buffalo shouldn’t be favored by half a point over the Dolphins on a neutral field. I’ll gladly accept the half-point discount here. 

Broncos (-3.5) over LIONS

            We have no idea what to make of Peyton Manning, but that shouldn’t matter Sunday night against a Lions team that looks ready to implode.

PACKERS (-7) over Chiefs

            It’s been ten days, and I feel like that has allowed the general public to forget how demoralizing Kansas City’s loss at home to Denver was. Now tasked with playing at Lambeau Field, we don’t like their chances Monday night.

 

Week 2 = 8-8

Thursday = 1-0 (second straight bullshit cover on Thursday Night Football)

Season = 17-15-1

Spread Picks By Team

            In our new weekly installment, I’ll update my record of picking games for each team. For example, I picked the Saints to cover against the Buccaneers. They didn’t, so I lost. Conversely, I picked the Cowboys to cover on the road at Philly. That did happen, so my pick is a win. You get the idea.

Redskins = 3-0

Browns = 2-0

Eagles = 2-0

Packers = 2-0

Vikings = 2-0

Lions = 2-0

Falcons = 2-0

Seahawks = 2-0

Rams = 2-0

49ers = 2-0

Patriots = 1-0-1

Steelers = 1-0-1

Giants = 2-1

Bills = 1-1

Titans = 1-1

Cowboys = 1-1

Dolphins = 1-1

Jets = 1-1

Texans = 1-1

Chiefs = 1-1

Chargers = 1-1

Bears = 1-1

Ravens = 0-2

Bengals = 0-2

Colts = 0-2

Jaguars = 0-2

Raiders = 0-2

Saints = 0-2

Buccaneers = 0-2

Panthers = 0-2

Cardinals = 0-2

Broncos = 0-2

2015 NFL Week 2 Picks

Texans (+3) over PANTHERS

            In what will amount to a reenactment of football in the 1930s, we’ll take the points.

SAINTS (-10) over Buccaneers

            We don’t feel warm and fuzzy about backing the Saints as double-digit favorites, but it would be even scarier to back the Bucs under any circumstances after last week’s debacle.

STEELERS (-7) over 49ers

            At first glance, this line is too high, but you have to dig deeper to make peace with it. Pittsburgh will have had 10 days off and gets to play at home. San Francisco played in a game that started at 10:15 eastern time Monday night, and then has to travel cross-country to play at 1pm (10am Pacific, for those of you not paying attention) Sunday.

VIKINGS (-2) over Lions

            Minnesota will reestablish themselves as wildcard contenders in their home opener.

Patriots (-1) over BILLS

            Buffalo will dominate for three quarters before finding a way to blow it and lose by 3.

BEARS (+2) over Cardinals

            We predicted the Cardinals would go 6-10. No Credentials will bank on that prediction for one more week and take the points.

BROWNS (+2) over Titans

            Two words…Johnny Fucking Football. Also, people are overreacting after Tennessee’s win over Tampa Bay.

Chargers (+3.5) over BENGALS

            I don’t know if San Diego wins, but the extra half point on this line is disrespectful to Philip Rivers.

REDSKINS (+3.5) over Rams

            St. Louis has a history of playing down to it’s competition, and Washington wasn’t horrendous in Week 1.

Falcons (+2) over GIANTS

            So a week after an epic choke job (even Tony Romo said, “Man the Giants fucked up the end of that game”), New York is favored against a decent Falcons squad?

Ravens (-7) over RAIDERS

            In McGloin we do not trust.

Dolphins (-6) over JAGUARS

            Miami took care of business on the road last week against an inferior opponent, and we think they do it again in Jacksonville.

Cowboys (+5.5) over EAGLES

            If Romo pulls this one out, we can start up some MVP chatter.

PACKERS (-3.5) over Seahawks

            On one hand, this line should be PACKERS (-3). On the other, I think Green Bay wins. So…ya.

COLTS (-7) over Jets

            Indy got kicked in the teeth last week, but they will bounce back at home.

Week 1 = 8-7-1

Thursday = 0-1 (second straight bullshit cover on Thursday Night Football)

Spread Picks By Team

            In a new weekly installment, each week I’ll update my record of picking games for each team. For example, I picked the Colts to cover in Buffalo. They got annihilated, so I lost. Conversely, I picked the Seahawks to lose at St. Louis. That did happen, so my pick is a win. You get the idea.

Dolphins = 1-0

Jets = 1-0

Browns = 1-0

Texans = 1-0

Chargers = 1-0

Eagles = 1-0

Redskins = 1-0

Packers = 1-0

Vikings = 1-0

Lions = 1-0

Bears = 1-0

Falcons = 1-0

Seahawks = 1-0

Rams = 1-0

49ers = 1-0

Chiefs = 1-1

Patriots = 0-0-1

Steelers = 0-0-1

Bills = 0-1

Ravens = 0-1

Bengals = 0-1

Colts = 0-1

Jaguars = 0-1

Titans = 0-1

Raiders = 0-1

Cowboys = 0-1

Giants = 0-1

Saints = 0-1

Buccaneers = 0-1

Panthers = 0-1

Cardinals = 0-1

Broncos = 0-2

2015 Week 1 NFL Picks

     Loyal readers of this blog (all three and a half of you) will recall that we benched ourselves from making picks last year because we were doing so bad. No Credentials has picked ourselves off the mat, brushed it off, and has dialed ourselves in for picks again. The best news is we didn't even lose our pick on Thursday night (we didn't win either, but who's counting?).

Packers (-7) over BEARS

            It’s the largest point spread of the Week 1 slate (tied with the Patriots Thursday night), and we forecast a rout.

Chiefs (+1) over TEXANS

            J.J. Watt is an amazing talent (you didn’t need me to tell you that), but he’s getting over exposed in the media. Couple that with the Alex Smith-Brian Hoyer mismatch, and we’ll take the Chiefs as a road dog.

JETS (-3.5) over Browns

            Ryan Fitzpatrick is good enough to beat the Browns. He should put that on his tombstone.

Colts (-3) over BILLS

            Buffalo is a trendy upset pick, but No Credentials isn’t ready to buy stock in Tyrod Taylor.

Dolphins (-3.5) over REDSKINS

            Kirk Cousins is the most overrated quarterback in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. A scary Miami defensive line will expose him.

JAGUARS (+3.5) over Panthers

            Jacksonville is frisky this year. They’ll hang with (and beat) a receiver-less Panthers squad.

RAMS (+4) over Seahawks

            St. Louis beat Seattle at home last year (it was bullshit, but a win is a win), so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that they could manage to only lose by a field goal.

Saints (+2.5) over CARDINALS

            The sky is falling for both of these teams, so we’ll take the points.

CHARGERS (-3) over Lions

            Of all the games this week, this one has the widest range of outcomes. Normally I’d take the points in this situation (like the previous pick), but backing Jim Caldwell and Matthew Stafford on the road is a dangerous proposition.

BUCCANEERS (-3) over Titans

            If we had ambition we would figure out if two quarterbacks drafted first and second faced off against each other in their regular season debuts. Ultimately, the talent around Jameis Winston is much stronger than what poor Marcus Mariotta is stuck with.

RAIDERS (+3) over Bengals

            Oakland signed Aldon Smith Friday, and he might play against the Bengals, which is insane.

Ravens (+5) over BRONCOS

            We have Baltimore winning the AFC, so we didn’t hesitate to grab the points here.

COWBOYS (-6) over Giants

            Go ahead NBC. Keep showing the Odell Beckham catch over and over and over and over and over and over again. It keeps people from remembering that the Cowboys actually won that game.

FALCONS (+3) over Eagles

            Holy over/under Batman. Unless the Packers beat Chicago 70-0, this is your best bet for highest scoring game of the weekend.

49ERS (-2.5) over Vikings

            All of the logical signs point to Minnesota in this one. San Francisco may have endured the worst off-season in the history of the league. Minnesota has one of the best collections of young talent. A pissed off Adrian Peterson is returning. That’s exactly why we’re picking San Francisco to win by a field goal. The Vikings will be fine (we have them making the playoffs as a wildcard), but the 49ers will circle the wagons for their home opener. 

Thursday = 0-0-1 (GARBAGE back door push by the Steelers)

NFL Division and Playoff Picks

            You don’t even have to bother watching any NFL games this year, because No Credentials is here today to tell you how every team will do this season.

 

NFC EAST

Cowboys 12-4

Eagles 10-6

Giants 7-9

Washington 5-11

            The Eagles will look like world-destroyers some weeks, but ultimately Sam Bradford’s health will prevent them from winning the division. We love the Giants offense this year, but even when a nine fingered Jason Pierre-Paul returns, it won’t be enough to lift their putrid defense. Behind the best offensive line in football, the Cowboys will control the NFC East.

NFC North

Packers 13-3

Vikings 9-7

Bears 6-10

Lions 5-11

            Aaron Rodgers is our pick to win NFL MVP, as we’re going to really see how good he is without Jordy Nelson on the field. Minnesota has talent up and down the roster, and should be good enough to sneak into the playoffs. Chicago is a car-fire, and we expect Jim Caldwell to be the parachute that pulls the Lions down into the abyss.

NFC South

Falcons 10-6

Saints 7-9

Buccaneers 7-9

Panthers 6-10

            All of these teams are still mediocre, but Atlanta did the most during the off-season to make us believe they can right the ship.

NFC West

Seahawks 12-4

Rams 9-7

49ers 6-10

Cardinals 4-12

            The NFC West has been the class of the divisions for the past four years, but their grip on that title is slipping. San Francisco had one of the worst off-seasons in the history of THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, and Arizona screams regression. Those two squads growing weaker will lift the Rams over .500, but we have them narrowly missing the playoffs. Seattle has lost a ton of depth from its Super Bowl winning squad two years ago, but they are still the class of the field.

AFC East

Patriots 11-5

Dolphins 10-6

Bills 7-9

Jets 6-10

            For the first time in several years during the Brady era (we won’t count 2008), the Patriots should actually get pushed for the division title. We still expect them to win it, but Miami will be hot on their heels. Buffalo and New York won’t be walks in the park, but their lousy quarterback production (sorry Tyrod) will doom them.

AFC North

Ravens 12-4

Steelers 10-6

Bengals 6-10

Browns 4-12

            Baltimore has done a nice job reloading since the bulk of their Super Bowl winning roster left, and we forecast them rejoining the AFC elite. No Credentials doesn’t know how we found 10 wins for Pittsburgh, but their offense will be elite when Le’Veon Bell returns. This feels like the year that Andy Dalton implodes in regular season games, so at least he won’t get to choke in Round 1. Cleveland…well they are the Browns.

AFC South

Colts 12-4

Texans 9-7

Jaguars 5-11

Titans 4-12

            Indy still has a stranglehold on the South, as Houston did not properly address their quarterback situation (sorry Brian Hoyer). Jacksonville won’t be all that good, but at least they have hope for the future.

AFC West

Broncos 11-5

Chiefs 9-7

Chargers 6-10

Raiders 6-10

            2015 will probably go down as Peyton Manning’s last stand, and his noodle arm should be good enough to give Denver another division title. On paper Kansas City is the most dangerous threat, but Alex Smith’s limitations will keep them out of the playoff picture. San Diego is due for a drop in production, while Oakland will take another step towards consistent competitiveness.

Wildcard Round (home team in caps)

SEAHAWKS over Vikings, Eagles over FALCONS, Dolphins over BRONCOS, PATRIOTS over Steelers

Divisional Round

PACKERS over Eagles, COWBOYS over Seahawks, RAVENS over Miami, Patriots over COLTS

Conference Championship

PACKERS over Cowboys, RAVENS over Patriots

Super Bowl

Packers over Ravens

NFL Power Rankings

            We are 75% of the way through the NFL regular season (sad, but true!), and now is the time where teams begin to really separate themselves. What better time to offer up a ranking of every NFL squad.

First Overall Pick Contenders

32. Oakland Raiders (1-11) – Well, at least they’ve won a game. It would be best for them to lose out so they can lock up the number one pick. Drafting a quarterback or trading the pick to surround Derek Carr with more talent are both great options.

31. New York Jets (2-10) – Rex Ryan deserves better than the putrid roster he’s forced to work with on a weekly basis.

30. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10) – Blake Bortles has been emphatically uninspiring, which means he’s either the next Troy Aikman or the next Blaine Gabbert.

29. Tennessee Titans (2-10) – There are decent players here, but the quarterback situation is so dreadful there is no hope of contention. If Oakland were to trade the number one overall pick, Tennessee would be the most logical trade partner.

28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-10) – Tampa Bay is so bad, they are out of playoff contention in a division that is led by a team that is 5-7. We think they’d like to take the contract they gave Josh McCown back.

Hopelessly Irrelevant

27. Carolina Panthers (3-8-1) – Everyone expected the offense to struggle, but no one thought the defense would fall off so dramatically from last year.

26. Washington (3-9) – If not for the infamous Herschel Walker trade from Dallas to Minnesota in 1989, the RGIII trade would go down as the worst transaction in NFL history.

25. New York Giants (3-9) – Remember when the Giants were 3-2 this year after emphatically ending the “Kirk Cousins is the second coming of Joe Theismann” campaign in Washington? Me neither.

24. Chicago Bears (5-7) – I hope Marc Trestman has his resume up to date.

They Play in the NFC South, So They Are Sort Of Relevant

23. Atlanta Falcons (5-7) – Incredibly, the team we have ranked as the tenth worst club in the league is leading their division going into the last month of the regular season.

Good Bad Teams

22. Minnesota Vikings (5-7)

21. St. Louis Rams (5-7) – We put these clubs together because both squads are a pain in the ass to play. Minnesota in particular deserves props for how well they’ve played despite the Adrian Peterson situation hanging over their franchise.

20. Houston Texans (6-6) – Oddly enough, the only team in football with a .500 record. Houston is a solid quarterback away from serious playoff contention.

19. Cleveland Browns (7-5) – It’s time to get Johnny Fucking Football onto the field.

18. New Orleans Saints (5-7) – We really want the Saints to go 3-1 so we can avoid a 7-9 team making the playoffs. Let’s look at their remaining schedule.

Week 14 = vs. Panthers (WIN)

Week 15 = @ Bears (WIN, the Bears are garbage)

Week 16 = vs. Falcons (WIN, and they clinch the NFC South with the victory)

Week 17 = @ Buccaneers (LOSS, they will have nothing to play for)

            You heard it here first…the Saints will finish 8-8.

17. Buffalo Bills (7-5) – We can’t in good faith rank a team quarterbacked by Kyle Orton any higher.

Enigmas

16. San Francisco 49ers (7-5) – We’re not sure if it’s the hoopla surrounding Jim Harbaugh’s contract status, the league figuring out Colin Kaepernick, or Frank Gore finally losing it, but something is just off with the 49ers this year.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) – Pittsburgh is really going to regret losing against two of the five worst teams in the NFL.

14. Kansas City Chiefs (7-5) – Kansas City is really going to regret their shocking loss at Oakland.

13. Baltimore Ravens (7-5) – Baltimore is really going to regret that late game collapse against San Diego.

12. San Diego Chargers (8-4) – San Diego’s defense has completely fallen apart, but Phil Rivers has literally put the team on his back.

11. Miami Dolphins (7-5) – I’d like the Dolphins so much more if Ryan Tannehill could consistently complete a pass that needs to travel more than 15 yards through the air.

Wish They Had Their Starting QB

10. Arizona Cardinals (9-3) – It’s a damn shame Carson Palmer went down, otherwise the Cardinals would be ranked third or fourth on this list. With Drew Stanton under center, they will be lucky to go 2-2 in December (remaining schedule is Chiefs, @ Rams, Seahawks, @ 49ers).

Best Case Scenario = Winning One Playoff Game

9. Dallas Cowboys (8-4) – I’ll admit the loss on Thanksgiving was pretty demoralizing, but you have to remember that all of our losses have occurred at home. If we can climb into a wildcard spot, it’s not unrealistic to think we could make noise in January.

8. Detroit Lions (8-4) – Detroit boasts the best scoring defense in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, and there is enough star power on offense to think they could get hot in the playoffs.

7. Cincinnati Bengals (8-3-1) – We’d like to rank them higher, but then we remember Andy Dalton is the Bengals starting quarterback.

6. Indianapolis Colts (8-4) – Indy has gotten smoked whenever they've taken the field against an elite team, but Andrew Luck has the ability to put the Colts on his back in the playoffs.

Super Bowl Contenders

5. Philadelphia Eagles (9-3) – The Eagles are an elite quarterback away from being the best team in football. Having Nick Foles or Mark Sanchez under center in January will be a problem.

4. Seattle Seahawks (8-4) – Seattle is flying under the radar, but we’re forecasting a first round bye for the defending Super Bowl champs.

3. Green Bay Packers (9-3) – In a season full of impressive quarterback performances, what Aaron Rodgers did to lead the Packers to victory over the Patriots is near the top of the list.

2. Denver Broncos (9-3) – Denver righted themselves offensively after they laid an egg in St. Louis.

1. New England Patriots (9-3) – There is no shame in losing at Lambeau Field, but the Patriots can’t afford to slip up the rest of the way.

Week 6 NFL Picks

            I was busy working this weekend, so we’re just barely getting these picks up. That’s not a bad thing, as this limits the possibility that anyone on Earth would actually wager actual money on these selections.

Broncos (-9.5) over JETS

BROWNS (-1) over Steelers

Jaguars (+4.5) over TITANS

Packers (-3) over DOLPHINS

Lions (+1.5) over VIKINGS

BENGALS (-6.5) over Panthers

BILLS (+3) over Patriots

Ravens (-3.5) over BUCCANEERS

Chargers (-7.5) over RAIDERS

FALCONS (-3) over Bears

SEAHAWKS (-8.5) over Cowboys

CARDINALS (-3.5) over Redskins

EAGLES (-2.5) over Giants

49ers (-3.5) over RAMS

           

Week 3 = 8-7

Thursday = 1-0

Season = 36-47

Week 4 NFL Picks

            After a catastrophic Week 2, we at least managed to go .500 last week. I’d forecast a banner Week 4, but we already blew real cash on the turd sandwich that was Kirk Cousins Thursday night.

  

Dolphins (-3.5) over Raiders (game being played in London)

Packers (-2) over BEARS

Bills (+3) over TEXANS

COLTS (-7.5) over Titans

Panthers (+3.5) over RAVENS

JETS (+2.5) over Lions

STEELERS (-7.5) over Buccaneers

CHARGERS (-13) over Jaguars

49ERS (-4.5) over Eagles

Falcons (-3) over VIKINGS

Saints (-3) over COWBOYS

Patriots (-3) over CHIEFS

           

Week 3 =8-8

Thursday = 0-1

Season = 21-29

Week 3 NFL Picks

            Last week, our picks were terrible. Like, worse than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After posting our worst week of prognostication in the history of this blog, we are happy to report that we started Week 3 by being on the right side of the Falcons 56-14 rout Thursday night.

            As we’ve done in the past after a bad week, we aren’t offering up any analysis with our picks, as we don’t want to give anyone the impression that we know what we are talking about. We’re also suspending our “Stock Up, Stock Down” segment, as all three teams we highlighted as being bullish on lost in Week 2. Again, this is all for America’s safety.

Chargers (+2.5) over BILLS

RAMS (+2) over Cowboys

EAGLES (-6) over Redskins

Texans (-1) over GIANTS

SAINTS (-10.5) over Vikings

BENGALS (-7) over Titans

BROWNS (+1.5) over Ravens

Packers (+2.5) over LIONS

Colts (-7) over JAGUARS

PATRIOTS (-14.5) over Raiders

CARDINALS (+3) over 49ers

SEAHAWKS (-4.5) over Broncos

DOLPHINS (-4) over Chiefs

PANTHERS (-3.5) over Steelers

Bears (+2.5) over JETS

           

Week 2 = 2-14 (L)

Thursday = 1-0

Season = 13-20

NFL Week 2 Picks

            Last week we did our best to stick to our pre-season predictions (only failing with the Bears-Bills game), and we rode that to the best Week 1 in the history of this blog. Sadly, we went against our pre-season prediction of the Steelers sucking when we backed them Thursday (although was there really any proper way to gauge how Baltimore was going to play in the wake of the Ray Rice scandal?), so we’re going back to basics for the rest of our Week 2 picks. 

           New wrinkles we are going to add each week with our picks is to highlight teams we feel are trending up or down. For our purposes, we will only relate that to how we forecasted each team to do before the season (for example we predicted the Giants to finish last in the NFC East, so there’s no reason for me to list them in the Stock Down section). We don’t like to overreact to Week 1, so there aren’t too many teams we are going to discuss.

Stock Up

Atlanta Falcons – Matt Ryan was head and shoulders above any other quarterback in the league with his Week 1 performance against the Saints. That level of play over an entire season can drag a mediocre roster into the playoffs.

Tennessee Titans – We announced earlier in the summer that my son would take over as the Titans quarterback in my Madden 15 franchise, so I was pleasantly surprised by Jake Locker’s performance at Arrowhead Stadium last week.

Indianapolis Colts – It’s weird typing this about a team that lost, but the Colts left a ton of points on the board against Denver. A few breaks here or there and Andrew Luck might’ve been able to steal the game from Peyton Manning. I wouldn’t of thought it possible before the season, but there is a chance they can finish as the second seed in the AFC.

Stock Down

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – You can’t lose a game at home to a team quarterbacked by Derek Anderson, regardless of the quality of defense your team is going against. There’s a good chance Josh McCown has turned into a pumpkin after his magical run with the Bears last year.

San Diego Chargers – It was trendy before the season to pick San Diego to upset the Broncos in the AFC West, but blowing an eleven-point lead to Carson Palmer shows the Chargers are the same frustrating team they’ve been for the better part of the last decade.

            Without further ado, the Week 2 picks.

1-0 Lions (+2.5) over 1-0 PANTHERS

            Detroit is well equipped to handle an overmatched Panthers secondary. We’re happy to get points here.

1-0 BILLS (Even) over 1-0 Dolphins

            Thankfully for Buffalo fans E.J. Manuel was just competent enough to deliver a shocking overtime win in Chicago. We like Buffalo’s chances of shutting down Miami’s offense.

0-1 Jaguars (+5.5) over 0-1 WASHINGTON

            Washington shouldn’t be favored by more than a field goal against any team in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE.

1-0 TITANS (-3.5) over 0-1 Cowboys

            Tennessee has plenty of talent at wide receiver to dominate the comically awful Cowboys defense.

0-1 GIANTS (+2.5) over 1-0 Cardinals

            We hate the Giants but the schedule makers did them a favor here. Arizona’s game against San Diego finished at roughly 1:15 am Eastern time on Tuesday, and now they have to travel three time zones and play at 1:00 pm Sunday.

0-1 Patriots (-6.5) over 1-0 VIKINGS

            New England was our pick before the news about Adrian Peterson not playing broke. This could be a blow out.

0-1 Saints (-6.5) over 0-1 BROWNS

            Somehow a two-team teaser with the Patriots and Saints won’t work, even though it looks so simple on paper.

1-0 Falcons (+5.5) over 1-0 BENGALS

            We have the Bengals winning by three.

1-0 BUCCANEERS (-6) over 0-1 Rams

            St. Louis looks well on their way to the top overall pick after a listless performance at home against the Vikings.

1-0 Seahawks (-6) over 0-1 CHARGERS

            Here’s a new rule for 2014…don’t bet against the Seahawks unless the spread is over a touchdown or they are on the road at San Francisco.

0-1 RAIDERS (+3) over 1-0 Texans

            After Oakland heroically pulled off a back door cover at New York, we’re happy to get three points with them against Houston.

0-1 PACKERS (-8) over 1-0 Jets

            Here’s your suicide pool pick.

1-0 BRONCOS (-12.5) over 0-1 Chiefs

            It’s a really weird line, but when Kansas City is down 14-0 in the first quarter do you really trust Alex Smith to cover?

1-0 49ERS (-7) over 0-1 Bears

            Rumor has it Curtis Conway might come out of retirement to catch passes from Jay Cutler this week. We’ll also predict over 200 yards rushing for San Francisco.

0-1 COLTS (-3) over 1-0 Eagles

            To say Philadelphia was a little wobbly against Jacksonville last week is an understatement. Andrew the Giant will take care of business at home.

           

Week 1 = 10-6

Thursday = 0-1

2014 NFC East Preview

4. New York Giants

2013 Record = 7-9, Third in NFC East, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = @ Lions, Cardinals, Texans, @ Redskins, Falcons, @ Eagles, @ Cowboys, BYE, Colts, @ Seahawks, 49ers, Cowboys, @ Jaguars, @ Titans, Redskins, @ Rams, Eagles

Blue Chippers = None

High Quality Players = FB John Conner, LG Geoff Schwartz, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
Solid Contributors = QB Eli Manning, RB Rashad Jennings, WR Victor Cruz, DE Jason Pierre-Paul, DT Cullen Jenkins, CB Walt Thurmond, SS Antrel Rolle
Impact Rookies = WR Odell Beckham Jr. (1-12, LSU)

Good News = Kevin Gilbride and his “Turd Sandwich Offense” were finally sent out of town.
Bad New = New York’s shaky offensive line has to face off against the fearsome defenses of the NFC West.

Outlook = For my money (what little there is of it), the Giants are the hardest team to forecast. Any win total between 3 and 13 is plausible. Realistically they could be 6-1 or 1-6 before their bye week. Most people will point to Eli Manning’s ridiculous interception total from a year ago, or their shockingly low defensive sack rate, as reasons to believe a market correction is in order. Even after surrendering 30+ points in each of their first five games last year, the defense still ranked eighth in total yards allowed at the end of the season. Jason Pierre-Paul is the key to the Giants reaching elite defensive status, as he’s now three years removed from his dominant 2011 campaign.

            Offensively, I’m not buying a return to past glory for Eli Manning, but the reason has nothing to do with him. Despite adding Geoff Schwartz from the Chiefs, New York still has one of the shakiest offensive lines in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. The majority of Manning’s turnovers last season were pressure based, and it was truly astonishing that he didn’t get hurt until Week 17. It was foolish for New York to take Odell Beckham Jr. (a Victor Cruz clone, which is something you don’t need when you already employ Victor Cruz) instead of a lineman in the first round.

Prediction = Eli gets the crap kicked out of him again, and forced to defend too many short fields, the Giants defense won’t hold up. 6-10

3. Dallas Cowboys

2013 Record = 8-8, Second in NFC East, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = 49ers, @ Titans, @ Rams, Saints, Texans, @ Seahawks, Giants, Redskins, Cardinals, Jaguars (London), BYE, @ Giants, Eagles, @ Bears, @ Eagles, Colts, @ Redskins

Blue Chippers = None

High Quality Players = HB DeMarco Murray, WR Dez Bryant, TE Jason Witten, LT Tyron Smith
Solid Contributors = QB Tony Romo, C Travis Frederick, RT Doug Free, DT Henry Melton
Impact Rookies = G/T Zack Martin (1-16, Notre Dame), DE Demarcus Lawrence (2-34, Boise State)

Good News = Against all odds, Dallas is on it's way to building their best offensive line since the glory days of the 1990s.
Bad News = Division II Schools could hang 40 points on their defense.

Outlook = Just for grins and giggles, here’s where I predicted Dallas would finish in the NFC East in each of the last three seasons.

2013 = 11-5, first in NFC East

2012 = 9-7, second in NFC East (surprisingly realistic prediction by me, except for the part where I thought they’d finish over .500)
2011 = 11-5, first in NFC East

            I’m just here to say…I can’t be optimistic anymore. Three mediocre seasons that have ended with Dallas losing a winner takes all season finale have sapped me of any hope. Unfortunately, Jerry Jones is encouraged by perpetual mediocrity, and hasn’t made wholesale changes in the structure of the team.

            Offensively, the Cowboys do boast top-5 talent across the board. Dallas finished fifth in total scoring despite running fewer offensive plays than any other team last year (that’s a weird stat, but we’ll cover it when we discuss the defense). Tony Romo delivered his strongest statistical season last year, chucking 31 touchdowns against only 10 interceptions. His lower rate of turnovers can largely be attributed to a vastly revamped offensive line. Zach Martin became the third offensive lineman taken by the Cowboys in the first round in the last five years, which before Tyron Smith was taken in 2010, hadn’t happened in 29 years. Keeping Romo upright has been a priority, and it has paid dividends. Improved blocking was also a key factor for DeMarco Murray averaging over five yards per carry. One could only wonder what Murray could produce if he could stay healthy for an entire season. The receiving corps is solid with Dez Bryant and Jason Witten leading the way. If Terrance Williams makes improvements after a promising rookie campaign, Romo will have the best receiving core he’s ever had.
            Defensively is where this team goes to hell. It was the worst defense in the league last season, and consistently had issues getting off the field on third down. Perhaps replacing 248-year old Monte Kiffin with Rod Marinelli as defensive coordinator will help, but that isn’t a guarantee. Sean Lee is already out for the season (stunner!), and their secondary is a complete mess.

Prediction = There are going to be plenty of shoot-outs, and plenty of fantasy football goodness, but unfortunately not plenty of wins for the Dallas Cowboys. In fact, we don’t even think they finish .500 this year. 7-9

2. Washington Redskins

2013 Record = 3-13, Last in NFC East, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = @ Texans, Jaguars, @ Eagles, Giants, Seahawks, @ Cardinals, Titans, @ Cowboys, @ Vikings, BYE, Buccaneers, @ 49ers, @ Colts, Rams, @ Giants, Eagles, Cowboys

Blue Chippers = None

High Quality Players = HB Alfred Morris, WR DeSean Jackson, WR Pierre Garcon, LT Trent Williams, DE Jason Hatcher, OLB Brian Orakpo
Solid Contributors = QB Robert Griffin III, TE Jordan Reed, DT Barry Cofield, OLB Ryan Kerrigan, FS Ryan Clark
Impact Rookies = T Morgan Moses (3-66, Virginia)

Good News = They don’t have to send any more draft picks to the Rams.

Bad News = Washington did very little to improve a porous offensive line.

Outlook = We’ve taken plenty of pot shots at RGIII and the Redskins over the past few years, but the removal of eternally tan Mike Shanahan finally gives Washington some hope. New Head Coach Jay Gruden has vowed to not use Griffin like a change of pace runningback, and he shouldn’t come anywhere near the 120 carries he logged as a rookie. Griffin has the strongest set of skill players he’s had during his short pro career, which will also minimize the need to run. Snagging DeSean Jackson in free agency was a major coup, as he’s a perfect compliment for possession receiver Pierre Garcon. Garcon led the league in receptions, and posted his first injury free season since his rookie year with the Colts. Jordan Reed established himself as a dynamic tight end during his rookie campaign before having it cut short by a concussion. He’s the best red zone target on the team, and also is a fine target on third down. Alfred Morris figures to be the workhorse again, but Roy Helu Jr. is also poised to make a run at PPR-League relevance. The only thing that will hold the offense back is the offensive line, which if Trent Williams wasn’t manning left tackle, would rank as the worst line in football. Morgan Moses was a great get for the Redskins in the third round, as has a chance to solidify the right tackle position.

            Defensively, coordinator Jim Haslett will once again have the green light to blitz the hell out of the quarterback (the tan man restricted Haslett from pulling the blitz trigger on numerous occasions last year). This is a sound strategy, as the secondary is still extremely weak and could use help from a top-flight pass rush. Brian Orakpo delivered double-digit sacks last season, but needs to raise his play another level to make the Redskins a competent defensive team.

Prediction = We think the coaching change is worth 3 wins, DeSean is worth another one, and a healthy RGIII will push Washington over .500 in a successful bounce back campaign. 9-7

1. Philadelphia Eagles

2013 Record = 10-6, NFC East Champions, Lost NFC Wildcard Game
2014 Schedule = Jaguars, @ Colts, Redskins, @ 49ers, Rams, Giants, BYE, @ Cardinals, @ Texans, Panthers, @ Packers, Titans, @ Cowboys, Seahawks, Cowboys, @ Redskins, @ Giants

Blue Chippers = HB LeSean McCoy, LT Jason Peters, LG Evan Mathis

High Quality Players = C Jason Kelce, DE Fletcher Cox, OLB Trent Cole, CB Brandon Boykin
Solid Contributors = QB Nick Foles, HB Darren Sproles, WR Riley Cooper, TE Brent Celek, RG Todd Herremans, RT Lane Johnson, DE Cedric Thornton
Impact Rookies = WR Jordan Matthews (2-42, Vanderbilt)

Good News = Philadelphia has the strongest offensive line in the league.

Bad News = They didn’t sign anyone with a fraction of the skill set DeSean Jackson possessed.

Outlook = Chip Kelly is my favorite coach in the league, and it pains me that my beloved Cowboys have to face off against him twice a year. It’s hard to tell which is the more impressive feat, turning Nick “The Pizza Man” Foles into a franchise quarterback or rehabbing an offensive line that nearly got Michael Vick killed in 2012 into the best unit in football. Using a bullpen by committee like approach, we expect the Eagles to replace DeSean Jackson’s value without trouble. Jeremy Maclin could be a NFL Comeback Player of the Year candidate, and Jordan Matthews has the raw talent to make an impact in his rookie campaign. Defensively is where the Eagles still have issues, as the secondary is still weak, and the front seven still isn’t fully suited to play in a 3-4 alignment. Philadelphia gave up the most passing yardage in the league last year (even more than the Cowboys!), and it’s unlikely that they are significantly improved this year.

Prediction = The defense isn’t Super Bowl caliber yet, so while they should handle the NFC East, they are at least a year away from serious championship contention. 10-6

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Click here to read about the AFC South
Click here to read about the NFC South
Click here to read about the AFC North
Click here to read about the NFC North
Click here to read about the AFC West