Showing posts with label Week 4 NFL Picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Week 4 NFL Picks. Show all posts

Saturday, October 3, 2015

2015 Week 4 NFL Picks


Dolphins (+2) over Jets 

            Both of these teams were junk in Week 3, so we’ll take the points.


COLTS (-9.5) over Jaguars
            If Andrew Luck doesn’t play, the line is going to be Colts (-4.5). We’ll take them regardless.

FALCONS (-6.5) over Texans
            So far Atlanta has played the offensively challenged Eagles, the clock management indifferent Giants, and the Romo-less Cowboys. You can add a team quarterbacked by Ryan Mallet to that list.

BUCCANEERS (+3.5) over Panthers
            Like their fellow NFC South members in Atlanta, the Panthers haven’t defeated any playoff caliber teams, and needed a late interception to prevent a team quarterbacked by Josh McCown from beating them last week. Tampa is competent enough to at least cover.

BILLS (-5) over Giants
            Karlos Williams fully unleashed!

Raiders (-3.5) over BEARS
            It feels wrong to pick the Raiders to cover on the road for a 1pm start two weeks in a row to push their record to 3-1, but I suppose stranger things have happened. Also, the Bears suck.

Eagles (-3) over WASHINGTON
            I don’t believe in the Eagles yet, but like clockwork Kirk Cousins turned into a pumpkin just before the calendar turned to October.

BENGALS (-4.5) over Chiefs
            I could totally see Cincinnati having a let down after their dramatic win in Baltimore last week, but I don’t possess the testicular fortitude to pick it.

            Actually, nevermind.

Chiefs (+4.5) over BENGALS

            Cincy wins this one by 3.

CHARGERS (-7.5) over Browns
            I’m not sure San Diego is good enough to be favored by 7.5 points over anyone, but Cleveland certainly isn’t good enough to be picked in a West Coast game.

Packers (-9.5) over 49ERS
            Aaron Rodgers has had a grudge against the 49ers ever since they chose Alex Smith over him in the 2005 NFL Draft, and for the first time he gets to pick on them while they are weak and feeble. Also, he just destroyed Alex Smith last Monday, which is weird.   

Vikings (+7) over BRONCOS
            It’s strange to say we like the under in a game featuring Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson, but it’s important to not live in the past. Minnesota’s defense is good enough to capitalize on Peyton’s noodle arm, and Denver’s defense is stout enough to keep Peterson in check.

CARDINALS (-7) over Rams
            Of all the results from Week 3, St. Louis not managing to comeback against a team quarterbacked by Michael Vick topped the list of most disappointing.

Cowboys (+3.5) over SAINTS
            Dallas crumbled like a sugar cookie in the second half against the Falcons, and we’re hopeful they learned from their mistakes and will stick to the running game Sunday night.

SEAHAWKS (-10) over Lions
            With or without Beast Mode, the Seahawks will roll.

 

Week 3 = 7-9

Thursday = 0-0-1 (thanks for terrible fourth down decisions Mike Tomlin)
Season = 24-24-2

Spread Picks By Team


            Here are our updated results picking for each team. Here are some weird trends so far.

-         All five of the teams we have correctly picked every game this season are from the NFC.
-         Three of them are from the NFC North. We are 11-1 picking teams in this division.
-         Of our 0-3 clubs, three of them hail from the miserable NFC South.
-         11 out of the 17 teams that we are .500 or better are NFC squads. The Patriots are the only AFC team we haven’t lost a pick with (they pushed in Week 1 against Pittsburgh).

Washington = 3-0
Packers = 3-0
Vikings = 3-0
Lions = 3-0
Seahawks = 3-0
Patriots = 2-0-1
Browns = 2-1
Eagles = 2-1
Giants = 2-1
Bears = 2-1
Falcons = 2-1
Rams = 2-1
49ers = 2-1
Titans = 2-1
Chiefs = 2-1
Chargers = 2-1
Steelers = 1-1-2
Bills = 1-2
Dolphins = 1-2
Colts = 1-2
Jaguars = 1-2
Broncos = 1-2
Cowboys = 1-2
Jets = 1-2
Texans = 1-2
Ravens = 0-3-1
Bengals = 0-3
Raiders = 0-3
Saints = 0-3
Buccaneers = 0-3
Panthers = 0-3
Cardinals = 0-3

Saturday, September 29, 2012

Week 4 NFL Picks


Week 4 Bye Weeks = Pittsburgh Steelers, Indianapolis Colts



New England Patriots (1-2) @ Buffalo Bills (2-1)

Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 50.5
            I’ll go out on a limb and say that with the real refs back, teams with powerhouse offenses should return to their normal 2011 level of production. Tom Brady won’t have to worry about Wes Welker getting mugged 10 yards down the field. If Buffalo had a healthy C.J. Spiller, this could’ve been a game, but expect a very pissed off 1-2 Patriots team to lay the smack down.

Patriots (-4) over BILLS
Top-5 Pick of the Week
 

Minnesota Vikings (2-1) @ Detroit Lions (1-2)
Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 48.5
            Christian Ponder made me a believer last week. I don’t think they’ll win the NFC North or anything crazy like that, but covering against a banged up Lions team isn’t too much to ask.

Vikings (+4) over LIONS
 

Carolina Panthers (0-3) @ Atlanta Falcons (3-0)
Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 48.5
            If Atlanta runs their offense for four quarters, this could be a 30-point beat-down.

FALCONS (-7) over Panthers
Top-5 Pick of the Week
 

San Francisco 49ers (2-1) @ New York Jets (2-1)
Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 41.5
            I don’t think the Jets will win, but this feels like a 13-10, 12-7, 17-14 sort of game. San Francisco isn’t a team equipped to take advantage of Darrelle Revis not being on the field.

JETS (+4.5) over 49ers
 

San Diego Chargers (2-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-2)
Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 44.5
            Norv Turner isn’t that far above an interim interim coach (which is what Kansas City beat last week), but the parachute that is Matt Cassell will hold down the Chiefs in this one.

Chargers (-1) over CHIEFS
 

Tennessee Titans (1-2) @ Houston Texans (3-0)
Sunday, 1:00pm, CBS, O/U 44.5
            Jake Locker won’t have as much fun against Houston as he did last week against the Lions.

TEXANS (-12) over Titans
 

Seattle Seahawks (2-1*) @ St.Louis Rams (1-2)
Sunday, 1:00pm, FOX, O/U 39
            Karma is a bitch Seattle.

RAMS (+3) over Seahawks

 

Miami Dolphins (1-2) @ Arizona Cardinals (3-0)
Sunday, 4:00pm, CBS, O/U 39
            It’s Hard for me to see Miami scoring much at all with no Reggie Bush on the field.

CARDINALS (-6) over Dolphins
Top-5 Pick
 

Oakland Raiders (1-2) @ Denver Broncos (1-2)
Sunday, 4:00pm, CBS, O/U 49
            Sure your grandmother can throw a tighter spiral than Peyton Manning, but that won’t matter against Oakland’s “week after pulling off a big upset” hangover.

BRONCOS (-7) over Raiders


Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)
Sunday, 4:00pm, CBS, O/U 43.5
            Blaine Gabbert has already pulled two rabbits out of his ass this season. I’m guessing he’s out of small furry mammals.

Bengals (-1.5) over JAGUARS
Top-5 Pick


New Orleans Saints (0-3) @ Green Bay Packers (1-2)
Sunday, 4:30pm, FOX, O/U 53
            The same paragraph I wrote for the Patriots applies to Green Bay here, with the added bonus of the Packers being extremely pissed off after getting screwed in Seattle.

PACKERS (-7.5) over Saints
 

Washington Redskins (1-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2)
Sunday, 4:30pm, FOX, O/U 47.5
            Robert Griffin III is amazing, but he’s a one-man gang. If Josh Freeman rebounds from the stinker he laid in Dallas, Tampa should win comfortably.

BUCCANEERS (-2.5) over Redskins
 

New York Giants (2-1) @ Philadelphia Eagles (2-1)
Sunday, 8:30pm, NBC, O/U 47.5
            I’m predicting a Nick Foles appearance sometime in the middle of the third quarter. Either that or Vick is going to rack up 35 points for my fantasy team. There is no middle ground.

Giants (+2) over EAGLES
Top-5 Pick
 

Chicago Bears (2-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-1)
Monday, 8:30pm, ESPN, O/U 41.5
            Can’t say I feel incredibly comfortable picking either side, but Chicago’s horrendous offensive line isn’t built to deal with DeMarcus Ware.

COWBOYS (-3.5) over Bears

 

Last Week = 9-7 (should’ve been 10-6, thanks replacement refs…)
Thursday Picks = 0-4
Season Record = 22-24-2

Saturday, October 1, 2011

Week 4 NFL Picks

            Week 3 was No Credentials first sub-.500 week, and it was a disaster with my top-5 picks. Here’s to hoping for a rebound.

Lions (+2.5) over COWBOYS

            I’d take Dallas, but Romo having to chase down errant snaps while simultaneously running from Ndamukong Suh isn’t a good combination.

Detroit 27, Dallas 14
Confidence Score = 10

Saints (-7.5) over JAGUARS
            Somehow New Orleans comeback against Houston last week slipped through the cracks of the weekend review. The Saints have been quietly taking care of business since their opening night defeat.

New Orleans 30, Jacksonville 10
Confidence Score = 16

EAGLES (-9) over 49ers
            Philadelphia is living proof that you win football games by dominating the trenches. Look for a mediocre 49ers squad to make them look good for a week.

Philadelphia 31, San Francisco 20
Confidence Score = 7

RAMS (+2.5) over Redskins
            How Washington couldn’t beat a team that snapped the ball when the quarterback wasn’t ready, or figure out where wide receivers needed to go on hot routes, I’ll never know. It must be because Rex Grossman is the equivalent of Tony Romo on steroids.

St. Louis 16, Washington 10
Confidence Score = 4

Titans (Even) over BROWNS
            Kenny Britt is a devastating loss for Tennessee (and one of my fantasy teams), but look for Chris Johnson to get his mojo back against the sorry Browns.

Tennessee 20, Cleveland 10
Confidence Score = 9

BENGALS (+3) over Bills
            Upset special of the week. Classic let down game after an epic win.

Cincinnati 24, Buffalo 21
Confidence Score = 8

CHIEFS (+3) over Vikings
            The stay away game of the week brought to you by ADT Security Systems. If you wager actual money on this game, you have a sickness.

Kansas City 21, Minnesota 20
Confidence Score = 1

BEARS (-6.5) over Panthers
            This is a tricky one. I expect Carolina to keep it close throughout, but this one has “late Brian Urlacher interception to set up spread covering score” written all over it.

Chicago 17, Carolina 10
Confidence Score = 2

Steelers (+3.5) over TEXANS
            If Pittsburgh has any backbone (and playoff aspirations) at all, they bounce back in a big way after their pathetic win in Indianapolis last week.

Pittsburgh 30, Houston 27
Confidence Score = 5

Falcons (-4.5) over SEAHAWKS
            Seattle is a tough home team and all, but even with Atlanta’s shoddy play so far, I can’t take Tavaris Jackson against them.

Atlanta 24, Seattle 10
Confidence Score = 14

Giants (-1.5) over CARDINALS
            There will be an equal amount of Giants fans as there will be Cardinals fans at this game in Glendale. That will be enough for New York to eke out an ugly win.

New York 20, Arizona 17
Confidence Score = 3

CHARGERS (-7) over Dolphins
            It’s October, so look for San Diego to begin looking like a Super Bowl favorite.

San Diego 27, Miami 7
Confidence Score = 15

PACKERS (-12.5) over Broncos
            Green Bay still hasn’t laid a hammer of god beat down yet. Denver is a good team to get that accomplishment done.

Green Bay 37, Denver 13
Confidence Score = 13

Patriots (-5.5) over RAIDERS
            I don’t think Oakland is good enough at passing to take advantage of the Patriots biggest defensive weakness. It’s a funny point spread to pick, but I like New England by a touchdown.

New England 31, Oakland 24
Confidence Score = 6

RAVENS (-3.5) over Jets
            I hope all of you like reading panic stories about the New York Jets, because that’s what we are going to read after Mark Sanchez looks terrible against the Ravens.

Baltimore 10, New York 3
Confidence Score = 12

BUCCANEERS (-10) over Colts
            The Colts defense was very impressive against Pittsburgh last week. Don’t expect an effort like that on the road against Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay 23, Indianapolis 6
Confidence Score = 11

Last Week Record = 7-9

LW Top-5 Picks = 1-4 (ouch!)
Season Record = 24-20-4
S Top-5 Picks = 7-6