2015 Week 7 NFL Picks

Bills (-4.5) over Jaguars
RAMS (-6.5) over Browns
Steelers (+3) over CHIEFS
DOLPHINS (-5) over Texans
Jets (+8) over PATRIOTS
Vikings (-1.5) over LIONS
TITANS (+6.5) over Falcons
Buccaneers (+3.5) over WASHINGTON
COLTS (-5) over Saints
CHARGERS (-4) over Raiders
GIANTS (-3) over Cowboys
PANTHERS (-3.5) over Eagles
CARDINALS (-9) over Ravens

2015 Week 4 NFL Picks

Dolphins (+2) over Jets 

            Both of these teams were junk in Week 3, so we’ll take the points.

COLTS (-9.5) over Jaguars

            If Andrew Luck doesn’t play, the line is going to be Colts (-4.5). We’ll take them regardless.

FALCONS (-6.5) over Texans

            So far Atlanta has played the offensively challenged Eagles, the clock management indifferent Giants, and the Romo-less Cowboys. You can add a team quarterbacked by Ryan Mallet to that list.

BUCCANEERS (+3.5) over Panthers

            Like their fellow NFC South members in Atlanta, the Panthers haven’t defeated any playoff caliber teams, and needed a late interception to prevent a team quarterbacked by Josh McCown from beating them last week. Tampa is competent enough to at least cover.

BILLS (-5) over Giants

            Karlos Williams fully unleashed!

Raiders (-3.5) over BEARS

            It feels wrong to pick the Raiders to cover on the road for a 1pm start two weeks in a row to push their record to 3-1, but I suppose stranger things have happened. Also, the Bears suck.

Eagles (-3) over WASHINGTON

            I don’t believe in the Eagles yet, but like clockwork Kirk Cousins turned into a pumpkin just before the calendar turned to October.

BENGALS (-4.5) over Chiefs

            I could totally see Cincinnati having a let down after their dramatic win in Baltimore last week, but I don’t possess the testicular fortitude to pick it.

            Actually, nevermind.

Chiefs (+4.5) over BENGALS

            Cincy wins this one by 3.

CHARGERS (-7.5) over Browns

            I’m not sure San Diego is good enough to be favored by 7.5 points over anyone, but Cleveland certainly isn’t good enough to be picked in a West Coast game.

Packers (-9.5) over 49ERS

            Aaron Rodgers has had a grudge against the 49ers ever since they chose Alex Smith over him in the 2005 NFL Draft, and for the first time he gets to pick on them while they are weak and feeble. Also, he just destroyed Alex Smith last Monday, which is weird.   

Vikings (+7) over BRONCOS

            It’s strange to say we like the under in a game featuring Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson, but it’s important to not live in the past. Minnesota’s defense is good enough to capitalize on Peyton’s noodle arm, and Denver’s defense is stout enough to keep Peterson in check.

CARDINALS (-7) over Rams

            Of all the results from Week 3, St. Louis not managing to comeback against a team quarterbacked by Michael Vick topped the list of most disappointing.

Cowboys (+3.5) over SAINTS

            Dallas crumbled like a sugar cookie in the second half against the Falcons, and we’re hopeful they learned from their mistakes and will stick to the running game Sunday night.

SEAHAWKS (-10) over Lions

            With or without Beast Mode, the Seahawks will roll.

 

Week 3 = 7-9

Thursday = 0-0-1 (thanks for terrible fourth down decisions Mike Tomlin)

Season = 24-24-2

Spread Picks By Team

            Here are our updated results picking for each team. Here are some weird trends so far.

-         All five of the teams we have correctly picked every game this season are from the NFC.

-         Three of them are from the NFC North. We are 11-1 picking teams in this division.

-         Of our 0-3 clubs, three of them hail from the miserable NFC South.

-         11 out of the 17 teams that we are .500 or better are NFC squads. The Patriots are the only AFC team we haven’t lost a pick with (they pushed in Week 1 against Pittsburgh).

Washington = 3-0

Packers = 3-0

Vikings = 3-0

Lions = 3-0

Seahawks = 3-0

Patriots = 2-0-1

Browns = 2-1

Eagles = 2-1

Giants = 2-1

Bears = 2-1

Falcons = 2-1

Rams = 2-1

49ers = 2-1

Titans = 2-1

Chiefs = 2-1

Chargers = 2-1

Steelers = 1-1-2

Bills = 1-2

Dolphins = 1-2

Colts = 1-2

Jaguars = 1-2

Broncos = 1-2

Cowboys = 1-2

Jets = 1-2

Texans = 1-2

Ravens = 0-3-1

Bengals = 0-3

Raiders = 0-3

Saints = 0-3

Buccaneers = 0-3

Panthers = 0-3

Cardinals = 0-3

2015 Week 1 NFL Picks

     Loyal readers of this blog (all three and a half of you) will recall that we benched ourselves from making picks last year because we were doing so bad. No Credentials has picked ourselves off the mat, brushed it off, and has dialed ourselves in for picks again. The best news is we didn't even lose our pick on Thursday night (we didn't win either, but who's counting?).

Packers (-7) over BEARS

            It’s the largest point spread of the Week 1 slate (tied with the Patriots Thursday night), and we forecast a rout.

Chiefs (+1) over TEXANS

            J.J. Watt is an amazing talent (you didn’t need me to tell you that), but he’s getting over exposed in the media. Couple that with the Alex Smith-Brian Hoyer mismatch, and we’ll take the Chiefs as a road dog.

JETS (-3.5) over Browns

            Ryan Fitzpatrick is good enough to beat the Browns. He should put that on his tombstone.

Colts (-3) over BILLS

            Buffalo is a trendy upset pick, but No Credentials isn’t ready to buy stock in Tyrod Taylor.

Dolphins (-3.5) over REDSKINS

            Kirk Cousins is the most overrated quarterback in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. A scary Miami defensive line will expose him.

JAGUARS (+3.5) over Panthers

            Jacksonville is frisky this year. They’ll hang with (and beat) a receiver-less Panthers squad.

RAMS (+4) over Seahawks

            St. Louis beat Seattle at home last year (it was bullshit, but a win is a win), so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that they could manage to only lose by a field goal.

Saints (+2.5) over CARDINALS

            The sky is falling for both of these teams, so we’ll take the points.

CHARGERS (-3) over Lions

            Of all the games this week, this one has the widest range of outcomes. Normally I’d take the points in this situation (like the previous pick), but backing Jim Caldwell and Matthew Stafford on the road is a dangerous proposition.

BUCCANEERS (-3) over Titans

            If we had ambition we would figure out if two quarterbacks drafted first and second faced off against each other in their regular season debuts. Ultimately, the talent around Jameis Winston is much stronger than what poor Marcus Mariotta is stuck with.

RAIDERS (+3) over Bengals

            Oakland signed Aldon Smith Friday, and he might play against the Bengals, which is insane.

Ravens (+5) over BRONCOS

            We have Baltimore winning the AFC, so we didn’t hesitate to grab the points here.

COWBOYS (-6) over Giants

            Go ahead NBC. Keep showing the Odell Beckham catch over and over and over and over and over and over again. It keeps people from remembering that the Cowboys actually won that game.

FALCONS (+3) over Eagles

            Holy over/under Batman. Unless the Packers beat Chicago 70-0, this is your best bet for highest scoring game of the weekend.

49ERS (-2.5) over Vikings

            All of the logical signs point to Minnesota in this one. San Francisco may have endured the worst off-season in the history of the league. Minnesota has one of the best collections of young talent. A pissed off Adrian Peterson is returning. That’s exactly why we’re picking San Francisco to win by a field goal. The Vikings will be fine (we have them making the playoffs as a wildcard), but the 49ers will circle the wagons for their home opener. 

Thursday = 0-0-1 (GARBAGE back door push by the Steelers)

2015 Fantasy Football Preview: Defense

            We previously discussed why you should wait until your very last pick (or only spend $1 in an auction) on a kicker. Now, I’m here to tell you why you should wait to pick a fantasy defense until your second to last pick.

            The scoring potential of a fantasy defense is dependant on the format of your league, but my logic for picking one isn’t impacted by scoring. Here’s our thesis…

            A fantasy defense’s scoring output is driven more by the quality of the opposing offense.

            With the rules of the game the way they are today, good offenses are more often than not going to score on good defenses. Just look at what the Patriots did in the Super Bowl to Seattle last February. I’d much rather own a defense that’s going up against one of the worst offenses every week (if that isn’t a Troy Aikman-esque observation, I don’t know what is).

            Putting that theory to test, let’s look at whom the teams that were the five worst offenses in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE play during weeks 14 through 16 of the NFL season (those are the weeks of the fantasy playoffs, depending on your league setup). With each team listed, we’ll list the pre-season fantasy rank (as generated by Yahoo) of each defense they face.

Jaguars: Colts (13), Falcons (26), @ Saints (30)

Raiders: @ Broncos (17), Packers (9), Chargers (27)

Titans: @ Jets (29), @ Patriots (7), Texans (3)

Buccaneers: Saints (30), @ Rams (5), Bears (24)

Jets: Titans (28), @ Cowboys (19), Patriots (7)

            Of this group, the Patriots and Saints are the only teams that appear twice. New Orleans has a good chance of being a car fire this season, but wouldn’t you like their chances against Famous Jameis and Blake Bortles? You’ll be able to scoop them up off of the waiver wire at some point in November. The Patriots would be my ideal defense that I would hope to have fall into the second to last round, as their pathetic division opponents coupled with their relatively easy fantasy playoff slate (their week 14 opponent is Houston, who might be playing J.J. Watt at quarterback by the time they meet in December) set up nicely.

            To summarize…don’t over value fantasy defenses (translation: don’t use your sixth round pick on the Seahawks defense), and be prepared to work the waiver wire. 

Deep NFL Thoughts For Week 12

            We took the week off last week (the Cowboys did have a bye week after all), but we’re back with a sentence or two about every NFL game this weekend.

Browns @ Falcons

            We here at No Credentials are overjoyed that avid pot smoker Josh Gordon is back on the field. Fans of the blog (all six of you) will remember us waxing poetic about him a year ago when he was carrying three of my fantasy teams to glory.

Fearless Gordon forecast against the shitty Falcons = 6 receptions, 126 yards, 2 touchdowns

Titans @ Eagles

            A valuable lesson was learned by the masses last week…don’t trust Mark Sanchez two straight weeks to lead your fantasy football team. The Titans are crappy enough that LeSean McCoy should limit the amount of impact the Sanchize has this week.

Lions @ Patriots

            Friend of the blog Ethan Hedrick will be at Gillette Stadium for this one. That has no relevance to anything, but I thought I would note it.

Packers @ Vikings

            Green Bay needs to thank their lucky stars that Packer destroyer Adrian Peterson had his suspension extended, although it’s hard to imagine that the Vikings would’ve been galvanized by A.P.’s return. In other words, we don’t know if Peterson’s absence will help or hurt the Vikings.

Jaguars @ Colts

            The over/under for this one is 50.5. Indianapolis might cover that by themselves.

Bengals @ Texans

            Houston kicked Andy Dalton’s ass two years in a row in the playoffs, and the Texans actually looked decent last week with Ryan Mallet under center.

Buccaneers @ Bears

            Under normal circumstances this game would only have an impact on the order at the top of the 2015 NFL Draft, but the NFC South is so terrible the Bucs still could run the table and make the playoffs.

Cardinals @ Seahawks

            At some point Seattle has to wake up and kick someone’s ass.

Rams @ Chargers

            Once upon a time San Diego actually looked like a legitimate threat to make a run to the Super Bowl. Now they can’t block, have no runningbacks, and their defense is garbage. Better luck next year.

Dolphins @ Broncos

            Losing two of your top three receiving threats within one quarter is never a good thing, so we’re pinning last week’s pitiful effort in St. Louis on that. We expect Denver to right the ship this week.

Washington @ 49ers

            Sadly, this one might have to be renamed “The Over-rated Mobile Quarterbacks Bowl”.

GIANTS (+4) over Cowboys

            With a huge game coming up on Thanksgiving against the Eagles, don’t be shocked to see the Cowboys looking a little unfocused for three quarters of this game. If they do win, it will be by no more than three points.

Jets vs. Bills

            One has to pity the poor Bills, who after ceding a home game to Toronto for several years, now have to play a home date in Detroit because of The Snowpocalypse.

Ravens @ Saints

             I’m cheering for the Saints only because I don’t want to see a 6-10 team win the NFC South.

NFL Week 8 Thoughts

     Thankfully, we finally fell under .500 last week, so we're taking the rest of the season off from making picks based off point spreads. Well, except for one game a week.

Washington (+10) over COWBOYS

     We've picked against my Dallas Cowboys every week of the NFL season, and I firmly believe that's the reason they are 6-1. So even if there are no other picks in this space, we'll always post a Cowboys pick.
     As for the rest of the slate, we'll post some thoughts, predictions, or facts that have no relevance to actual games. Enjoy.

I'm Glad I'll Be Working During the Falcons-Lions Game Tomorrow Morning
     You know who else is? My wife. Seriously NFL, you've already pissed off enough women this year. Let's try not to make football last for 15 consecutive hours.

What Do You Get With No Steroids in Baseball? The Worst World Series Ever
    The Royals and Giants are dog shit. If either club played the '98 Yankees 10 times, they'd be lucky to win twice.

The Saints Shouldn't Be Favored Against Aaron Rodgers
     Yet incredibly, the line is still SAINTS (-2) as of the time of this writing.

Let's Keep Running DeMarco Murray Into the Ground
     He's a free agent after the year anyway. With as good as the offensive line is, it doesn't matter who is toting the rock for the Cowboys.

Denver Might Be the Only Super Bowl Caliber Team in the League
     Seattle and San Francisco still have time to turn it around (the 49ers will get a lot of dudes back on defense during the second half of the season), but for now it's Denver and then everyone else. Since the advent of the weekly Thursday night game, we haven't seen a better two win in five day stretch like the Broncos just pulled against San Francisco and the Chargers.

We're Happy Bob is Getting Eaten on "The Walking Dead"
     It's not an endorsement of cannibalism, but I really hate Bob, and thought he should've died sometime last season.

Detroit and Cincinnati Are Lurking
     Both clubs are missing elite wide receivers, and should return to previous offensive production upon their return.

Jacksonville is Our Underdog Pick of the Week
     This pick has more to do with how frustrating the Dolphins have been over the last few years than an endorsement of the Jaguars.

     I'd post more, but I have to go to work in six hours. Until next time...

Week 4 NFL Picks

            After a catastrophic Week 2, we at least managed to go .500 last week. I’d forecast a banner Week 4, but we already blew real cash on the turd sandwich that was Kirk Cousins Thursday night.

  

Dolphins (-3.5) over Raiders (game being played in London)

Packers (-2) over BEARS

Bills (+3) over TEXANS

COLTS (-7.5) over Titans

Panthers (+3.5) over RAVENS

JETS (+2.5) over Lions

STEELERS (-7.5) over Buccaneers

CHARGERS (-13) over Jaguars

49ERS (-4.5) over Eagles

Falcons (-3) over VIKINGS

Saints (-3) over COWBOYS

Patriots (-3) over CHIEFS

           

Week 3 =8-8

Thursday = 0-1

Season = 21-29

2014 NFC South Preview

4. Carolina Panthers

2013 Record = 12-4, NFC South Champions, Lost NFC Divisional Game
2014 Schedule = @ Buccaneers, Lions, Steelers, @ Ravens, Bears, @ Bengals, @ Packers, Seahawks, Saints, @ Eagles, Falcons, BYE, @ Vikings, @ Saints, Buccaneers, Browns, @ Falcons

Blue Chippers = None

High Quality Players = FB Mike Tolbert, DE Greg Hardy, MLB Luke Kuechly, OLB Thomas Davis
Solid Contributors = QB Cam Newton, WR Jerricho Cotchery, TE Greg Olsen, C Ryan Kalil, DE Charles Johnson, DT Star Lotulelei, DT Kawann Short
Impact Rookies = DE Kony Ealy (2-60, Missouri)

Good News = Carolina has the strongest front seven in the league.

Bad News = Who is Cam Newton going to throw too again?

Outlook = No team took as many hits too it’s overall talent level than Carolina during the off-season. They lost a solid left tackle, their entire wide receiver core, and didn’t retain any member of their starting secondary. Cam Newton is probably the only quarterback in the league that could be successful with a receiving core this bad, but it’s a tall order. Most of Carolina’s offensive hopes hinge on rookie Kelvin Benjamin. He has the size, but is a raw talent who doesn’t project as a go-to receiver right out of the gate. Tight end Greg Olsen is the most reliable receiver Newton has. If you’re looking for a dark horse candidate to lead the league in receptions, he’s a good one. Carolina’s receiver problems are compounded by a weakened offensive line, which will hinder their running game.

            Carolina’s front seven is sensational that needs to play at peak level every week to cover for a weak secondary. Greg Hardy’s status is up in the air after off the field issues, but there’s enough depth for the Panthers to get by without him. Luke Kuechly was the Defensive Player of the Year last season, and will need to replicate that for Carolina to have any chance to return to the playoffs. Roman Harper is washed up, and hopefully for the Panthers sake will not have to make too many plays in deep coverage.
Prediction = We love Cam Newton, but there’s too many obstacles here for him to overcome. Only when the Panthers are out of salary cap Hell will they return to playoff contention. 6-10

3. Atlanta Falcons

2013 Record = 4-12, Third in NFC South, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = Saints, @ Bengals, Buccaneers, @ Vikings, @ Giants, Bears, @ Ravens, Lions, BYE, @ Buccaneers, @ Panthers, Browns, Cardinals, @ Packers, Steelers, @ Saints, Panthers

Blue Chippers = None

High Quality Players = QB Matt Ryan, WR Julio Jones
Solid Contributors = WR Roddy White, RG Jon Asamoah, DT Paul Soliai, OLB Sean Witherspoon, CB Desmond Trufant
Impact Rookies = RT Jake Matthews (1-6, Texas A&M), DE Ra’Shede Hageman (2-37, Minnesota)

Good News = Matt Ryan is coming off his most inspiring campaign playing behind a battered offensive line in 2013.

Bad News = The offensive line is still ill equipped to deal with the defenses in the AFC South.

Outlook = After averaging 12 wins a year between 2010 and 2012, Atlanta posted a third of that total in 2013. Injuries to star wide outs Julio Jones and Roddy White contributed to their issues, but the real issue was losing the war in the trenches. Atlanta was thirty-first against the run, and Matt Ryan was assaulted by opposing defenses. The Falcons bolstered the right side of the line by drafting Jake Matthews and signing Jon Asamoah, but Sam Baker is probably the worst starting left tackle in the league. He was just carted of the field tonight, and while we don’t root for injuries, long term it wouldn’t be bad for the Falcons to try someone else on Matt Ryan’s blindside. An awful runningback core further hinders Ryan. Stevan Jackson is washed up, and Jacquizz Rodgers only managed 3.5 yards per carry.

            Atlanta didn’t make any major moves to upgrade a defense that was porous against the run, and not much better against the pass. The Falcons have been in desperate need of an elite pass rusher since John Abraham’s best years. Their secondary would look a lot better if the front seven could get to the quarterback, as they were asked to hold up for long periods of times in coverage.
Prediction = Better targets for Ryan will add a few wins, but an unforeseen improvement on the defensive side of the ball will be needed to get Atlanta back into playoff contention. 7-9

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2013 Record = 4-12, Last in NFC South, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = Panthers, Rams, @ Falcons, @ Steelers, @ Saints, Ravens, BYE, Vikings, @ Browns, Falcons, @ Redskins, @ Bears, Bengals, @ Lions, @ Panthers, Packers, Saints

Blue Chippers = DT Gerald McCoy, OLB Lavonte David

High Quality Players = WR Vincent Jackson
Solid Contributors = HB Doug Martin, LT Anthony Collins, RT Demar Dotson, DE Michael Johnson, CB Alterraun Verner
Impact Rookies = WR Mike Evans (1-7, Texas A&M), TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins (2-38, Washington

Good News = Lovie Smith is restoring many of the core principles that were put in place when Tony Dungy was in Tampa.

Bad News = Journeyman Josh McCown doesn’t inspire confidence for a surprising playoff run.

Outlook = Offensive line issues and inconsistent quarterback play were the undoing of the 2013 Buccaneers, and we’re still projecting those areas to be trouble spots this year. Even after Mike Glennon showed some promise behind a shoddy offensive line, Tampa made the curious choice of bringing in Josh McCown. McCown put up massive numbers in relief of an injured Jay Cutler for Chicago, and he does have a similar set of receivers to work with that he had last year with the Bears. We expect him to have a short leash if Tampa Bay starts off slow. Doug Martin was also hampered by the offensive line last season, and then was lost for the year in late October. Mike Evans profiles as a red zone monster, and the perfect compliment to Vincent Jackson.

            Even without Darrelle Revis, the Buccaneers should boast one of the top defenses in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. Lovie Smith is bringing the famed “Tampa 2” defense back home, and the Bucs have the talent to execute it. Pro Bowler Alterraun Verner was brought in from Tennessee to replace Revis. Safeties Mark Barron and Dashon Goldson under whelmed last year, but have the potential to form an elite safety duo. Gerald McCoy is a monster in the middle of the defensive line who dominates against the run and the pass. Michael Johnson was brought in to ease some pressure off McCoy. Lavonte David at times looks like a Derrick Brooks clone, and should thrive in Smith’s system.
Prediction = They will be competitive, and at times a total pain in the ass to play, but inconsistent offensive line play will mire the Buccaneers in mediocrity. 8-8

1. New Orleans Saints

2013 Record = 11-5, Second in NFC South, Lost NFC Divisional Game
2014 Schedule = @ Falcons, @ Browns, Vikings, @ Cowboys, Buccaneers, BYE, @ Lions, Packers, @ Panthers, 49ers, Bengals, Ravens, @ Steelers, Panthers, @ Bears, Falcons, @ Buccaneers

Blue Chippers = QB Drew Brees, TE Jimmy Graham, FS Jairus Byrd

High Quality Players = HB Pierre Thomas, WR Marques Colston, RT Zach Strief, DE Cameron Jordan, CB Keenan Lewis
Solid Contributors = LG Jahri Evans, RG Ben Grubbs, DE Akiem Hicks, DT Brodrick Bunkley, OLB Junior Galette, CB Champ Bailey, SS Kenny Vaccaro
Impact Rookies = WR Brandin Cooks (1-20, Oregon State), CB Stanley Jean-Baptiste (2-58, Nebraska)

Good News = Carolina is the only team New Orleans will face in a road game that finished last season above .500.

Bad News = This is the most unproven receiving core Drew Brees has ever had with the Saints.

Outlook = A historic defensive turnaround spearheaded New Orleans’ postseason return, and is still the reason the Saints have the best chance of unseating the Seahawks and 49ers for a Super Bowl berth. A perfect storm of young talent clicking in Rob Ryan’s system and the arrival of Keenan Lewis led to the Saints finishing fourth in total defense. Lewis was the key player, as after solid years with Pittsburgh he suddenly morphed into a shutdown corner. Jairus Byrd was arguably the most important free agent acquisition by any team during the off-season, and he will fit perfectly with second year safety Kenny Vaccaro. Cameron Jordan and Junior Galette thrived in Ryan’s attacking defense, and should at least replicate their sack totals from a year ago.

            For the first time in many years, there are actually more questions about the Saints offense. The offensive line was shaky at times during the early part of the season, but came around once Terron Armstead was installed at left tackle. A full off-season prepping for the position should raise his play another level. Chain moving machine Lance Moore is gone, as well as Darren Sproles, who has been the elite receiving back of the past decade. Pierre Thomas actually posted more receptions than Sproles did last year, so they should fill in for him just fine. Rookie Brandin Cooks is also being counted on to fill some of the Sproles void on bubble screens. Along with Cooks, Kenny Stills also needs to make a consistent impact. He only caught 32 passes last year, but averaged an eye popping 20 yards per catch. The uncertainty at receiver is not as worrisome with the presence of Jimmy Graham, who is the elite receiving tight end in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. Fortunately for New Orleans his contract situation was resolved before training camp.   
Prediction = With an extremely favorable schedule, New Orleans has a great chance of earning the top seed in the NFC. Their home date with the 49ers in Week 10 could end up determining who has home field throughout the playoffs. 12-4

Click here to read about the AFC East

Click here to read about the NFC East
Click here to read about the AFC South
Click here to read about the AFC North
Click here to read about the NFC North
Click here to read about the AFC West

Saturday NFL Divisional Round Picks

#6 New Orleans Saints (11-5) @ #1 Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
            I don’t see any reason to believe the Saints will do better in their rematch with Seattle than they did in their regular season meeting. Winning in Philadelphia is one thing, but taking down the top team in the NFC in their building is whole other ball of wax.

SEAHAWKS (-7.5) over Saints

 

#4 Indianapolis Colts (11-5) @ #2 New England Patriots (12-4)

            I believe in Andrew the Giant. I won’t fully predict a Colts upset, but I think Luck keeps it close against a New England team that has made a habit of being locked in tight games all season long.

Colts (+7) over PATRIOTS


Wildcard Round = 1-2-1 (3-1 if you bet the money line)

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Weekend (1/3-1/6)

10. ESPN Reports Ridiculous Carmelo Anthony-Blake Griffin Story
            What happens when it’s a slow sports news weekend? ESPN floats a rumor about a trade that wasn’t even proposed by either team mentioned. Good work Chris Broussard.

9. Finland Wins World Junior Hockey Championships

            I have nothing bad to say about Finland, so good for them.

8. Kevin Durant Goes Bonkers, Leads Thunder Over Timberwolves

            Lebron is always the favorite for league MVP, and Paul George has taken a major leap this season, but there has not been enough love for Kevin Durant this season. Durant scored 23 of his 48 points in the fourth quarter to out-duel fellow All-Star Kevin Love.

7. #6 Oklahoma States Loses to Kansas State
6. Notre Dame Stuns #5 Duke
           Future top-5 picks in next year’s draft, unranked teams bottled up Jabari Parker and Marcus Smart. Parker looked human for the first time all year, only scoring seven points on 2-10 from the field.

5. Chargers Capitalize on Inept Andy Dalton, Top Bengals
            One of the more underreported stories in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE has been the return to elite status by Philip Rivers. On the other side, Cincinnati has to be asking major questions about going forward with Andy Dalton as their starting quarterback.

4. Saints End Road Woes, Beat Philadelphia

            Nick Foles looked like a guy who was too scared to take a chance, as he took numerous sacks that derailed the Eagles offense. The Saints reward for there first ever road playoff win is a death sentence trip to Seattle.

3. 49ers Beat Packers and Bitter Cold

            Colin Kaepernick morphs into a right handed Steve Young whenever he faces the Packers.
         
2. Chiefs Implode, Andrew Luck Rallies Colts to Improbable Victory
            Andrew Luck virtually showed every learning curve of a young QB in this game, and in the second half showed why he could be the quarterback of the ‘10s when it’s all said and done. Meanwhile, Kansas City added to their misery with the second worst blown lead in playoff history.

1. Florida State Has the Ball Last, Wins Final BCS Title Over Auburn

            Down 21-3 and looking completely lifeless, a fake punt was all Florida State needed to kick-start their team. The comeback ended with Jameis Winston (who looked nothing like a Heisman Trophy winner for the first three and a half quarters of the game) leading a dramatic march down the field. Even more importantly, the SEC’s incredible run of consecutive national titles ends at seven. All in all, this should end up as the most memorable college football game of the decade.

NFL Wildcard Saturday Picks

#5 Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) @ #4 Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
            The point spread for this game has already moved a half-point in favor of the Chiefs, but No Credentials is going to put a ton of stock into the Week 16 meeting where Indianapolis went into Arrowhead and thoroughly dominated Kansas City. This victory is all the more impressive when you consider that the Chiefs still had a shot at the #1 seed in the AFC at the time. If the Colts keep Jamaal Charles in check, they’ll move on to Round 2.

COLTS (-2) over Chiefs

#6 New Orleans Saints (11-5) @ #3 Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)

            For our money, this is the hardest game of the weekend to figure out. New Orleans has the superior roster, but despite being undefeated at home, they couldn’t wrap up the NFC South due to a dreadful 3-5 mark on the road. The Saints’ troubles on the road are diminished by Philadelphia’s lack of dominance at home, as they were only a .500 team in there own building. Ultimately, we’ll settle on the fact that the NFC East was the second worst division in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, and pick the Saints superior roster to come through in a wild Saturday night game.
 
Saints (+2.5) over EAGLES

Week 17 NFL Picks

    Week 17 is more about what a team is playing for as opposed to it's talent level. Here's our analysis that will invariably prove to be incorrect.

Panthers (-6.5) over FALCONS
            Carolina needs a win to lock up a #2 seed, and Atlanta needs a loss to secure a top-5 draft pick.

TITANS (-7) over Texans

            For nothing else, Tennessee has played hard all year. Houston needs to lose to clinch the first pick in THE 2014 NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE DRAFT.

STEELERS (-7) over Browns

            Cleveland is another club that needs to lose to lock up a top-5 pick (along with the Colts’ first round pick, which will more than likely be in the early twenties), and Pittsburgh has a remote shot at making the playoffs if three other teams lose.

GIANTS (-3.5) over Redskins

            Washington is the only horrendous team that actually will want to win (their first round pick is going to St. Louis as the final piece of the RGIII trade, which currently would be the second overall pick in the draft), but unfortunately for them they will be too inept to do it.

Ravens (+6.5) over BENGALS

            Baltimore is in the driver’s seat for the sixth seed, but will need a strong effort to beat a Bengals squad looking to grab the third spot.

Jaguars (+11) over COLTS

            Indianapolis has played up or down to their competition all year, and Gus Bradley’s Jaguars have played solid football the last half of the season.

DOLPHINS (-5.5) over Jets

            It will only be fitting that Rex Ryan’s final game as Jets’ Head Coach will be a humiliating defeat.

VIKINGS (-2.5) over Lions

            The Grim Reaper might be standing behind Jim Schwarz on the sidelines for the entire game.

Packers (-3) over BEARS

            “GOOD GOD, THAT’S AARON RODGERS MUSIC!!! DISCOUNT DOUBLE CHECK!”

PATRIOTS (-9) over Bills

            Remember when Buffalo almost beat the Patriots in Week 1? Me neither, I had to look it up.

SAINTS (-13) over Buccaneers

            New Orleans has to go all out to secure a playoff spot. If they lose and Arizona defeats the 49ers, the Saints are out of the playoffs.

Broncos (-12.5) over RAIDERS

            There are some funky news reports floating out of Oakland in regards to Terrelle Pryor, which isn’t a good thing when you’re facing a team that needs to win to lock up the top seed in the AFC.

CARDINALS (+1) over 49ers

            No Credentials conspiracy theory in regards to Seattle throwing the game against Arizona last week came to fruition, so here’s another conspiracy regarding the Cardinals. San Francisco already has a playoff spot secured. It’s unlikely that Seattle loses to St. Louis, so they are staring at either a #5 seed. In a vacuum, would you rather play the Philadelphia Eagles or the Green Bay Packers? If San Francisco loses, they’ll end up at the sixth seed if New Orleans wins. If San Francisco loses and Tampa Bay wins, then the Saints are eliminated from playoff contention. Unless St. Louis was miraculously able to win in Seattle, there’s no reason San Francisco should try in this game.

Chiefs (+9.5) over CHARGERS

            It’s assumed that Kansas City won’t try that hard (they are locked in as the #5 seed), but San Diego won’t have anything to play for if either Baltimore or Miami wins earlier in the day.

SEAHAWKS (-11.5) over Rams

            I smell a 24-0 shutout.

Eagles (-7) over COWBOYS

            Hopefully, Tony Romo’s absence won’t give Jason Garrett a free pass after Philadelphia destroys them Sunday night.

Week 16 = 7-9
Season = 116-115-9

Week 16 NFL Picks

AFC #7 Miami Dolphins @ AFC #12 Buffalo Bills
            There’s too much on the line for Miami to blow a game against a team quarterbacked by Thad Lewis.

Dolphins (-3) over BILLS

 

NFC #5 Carolina Panthers @ NFC #2 New Orleans Saints

            The dramatic difference between that Saints’ play on the road versus their performance at home is too big to ignore. Despite beating Carolina by three scores just two weeks ago, we think Carolina takes control of the NFC South.

PANTHERS (-3.5) over Saints

 

NFC #10 Dallas Cowboys @ NFC #16 Washington Redskins

            It’s fate that Dallas enters the last week with a season with a chance to either win the NFC East or finish 8-8, so it only makes sense that they beat up a hapless Redskins squad.

Cowboys (-3) over REDSKINS

 

NFC #15 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ NFC #11 St. Louis Rams

            In terms of games between bad teams, this is about as good as it gets. We’ll see if the Rams are too pleased with themselves after dominating the Saints last week.

RAMS (-4.5) over Buccaneers

 

AFC #15 Cleveland Browns @ AFC #10 New York Jets

            New York is well on its way to clinching the title of “worst 7-9 NFL team in the history of man”.

JETS (-2) over Browns
 

AFC #5 Kansas City Chiefs @ AFC #4 Indianapolis Colts

            Kansas City still has a shot at the #1 seed if they win out, and Indianapolis has virtually nothing to play for in terms of playoff seeding.

CHIEFS (-7) over Colts

 

NFC #13 Minnesota Vikings @ AFC #3 Cincinnati Bengals

            Andy Dalton and company squandered a chance to grab the #2 spot last week, but if they take care of business and Baltimore does the same against New England, they could get redemption this week.

BENGALS (-8) over Vikings

 

AFC #1 Denver Broncos @ AFC #16 Houston Texans

            Houston gave New England a game effort a few weeks ago, and Denver looked ordinary without Wes Welker on the field against the Chargers.

TEXANS (+10.5) over Broncos

 

AFC #11 Tennessee Titans @ AFC #14 Jacksonville Jaguars

            Probably the least appealing game on the weekend slate, although if your desperate for runningback help in fantasy, Jacksonville’s Jordan Todman is a good place to start.

JAGUARS (-4.5) over Titans

 

NFC #7 Arizona Cardinals @ NFC #1 Seattle Seahawks

            It would make some sense for Seattle, who virtually has the top seed in the conference locked up, to throw this game to put pressure on division rival San Francisco. Just saying.

Cardinals (+10.5) over SEAHAWKS

 

NFC #12 New York Giants @ NFC #9 Detroit Lions

            Other than Dallas, no team is more desperate for a coaching change than the Detroit Lions. Jon Gruden could have Detroit playing in the conference championship game.

Giants (+9.5) over LIONS

 

AFC #13 Oakland Raiders @ AFC #8 San Diego Chargers

            If Miami beats Buffalo, San Diego will already be eliminated from playoff contention before their game kicks off.

Raiders (+10) over CHARGERS

 

AFC #9 Pittsburgh Steelers @ NFC #8 Green Bay Packers

            Matt Flynn keeps Green Bay alive, setting up a NFC North showdown against the Bears in Week 17.

PACKERS (-2.5) over Steelers

AFC #2 New England Patriots @ AFC #6 Baltimore Ravens

            Justin Tucker had the pleasure of putting one of No Credential’s fantasy teams into a championship game last Monday (we won by two, thanks to this), and I think it’s fitting that Baltimore is only favored by two in this game. Tucker boots a field goal to win the game.

RAVENS (-2) over Patriots

 

NFC #6 Chicago Bears @ NFC #5 Philadelphia Eagles

            One of the stranger Sunday night games you’ll ever see for gambling purposes, as depending on how the day games shake out, there’s a good chance neither team will really need to win the game.

Bears (+3) over EAGLES

NFC #14 Atlanta Falcons @ NFC #6 San Francisco 49ers

            San Francisco can sow up a playoff spot with a win over the hapless Falcons.
 
49ERS (-13) over Falcons


Last Week = 5-10-1
Season = 109-106-9

Week 15 NFL Picks

3-10 Washington Redskins @ 3-10 Atlanta Falcons (-7)
            There are very few football teams on Earth that the Falcons should be favored by a touchdown against. Washington is one of them.

FALCONS (-7) over Redskins

 

9-4 San Francisco 49ers (-6) @ 4-9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

            Coming off their hard fought division win over Seattle, San Francisco will have a hard time winning by more than a field goal in Tampa.

BUCCANEERS (+6) over 49ers

 

11-2 Seattle Seahawks (-7) @ 5-8 New York Giants

            Playing a pissed off Seaderrall Seahawks team is not an ideal scenario for the sorry Giants.

Seahawks (-7) over GIANTS

     

7-6 Chicago Bears (-1) @ 4-9 Cleveland Browns
            Jay Cutler’s play will have nothing to do with the Browns winning on Sunday, but that’s what everyone will be talking about Monday.

BROWNS (+1) over Bears

 

2-11 Houston Texans @ 8-5 Indianapolis Colts (-6)

            Indianapolis isn’t setting the world on fire, but Houston has no incentive to win, and Coach Wade is heavily involved.

COLTS (-6) over Texans

 

4-9 Buffalo Bills (-1.5) @ 4-9 Jacksonville Jaguars

            Hard to believe we’re saying this, but there’s no way that Buffalo should be favored in this game.

JAGUARS (+1.5) over Bills

 

10-3 New England Patriots (-1) @ 7-6 Miami Dolphins

            We’ve been preparing to pick Miami in this game all week, but Denver hung a pretty big carrot in front of the Patriots by losing last night.

Patriots (-1) over DOLPHINS

 

8-5 Philadelphia Eagles (-6) @ 3-9-1 Minnesota Vikings

            Rumor has it that Minnesota might start Chuck Foreman at runningback this week, which would be cool if it was the 1970s.

Eagles (-6) over VIKINGS

6-7 New York Jets @ 9-4 Carolina Panthers

            Carolina will lay the smack down.

PANTHERS (-11.5) over Jets

10-3 Kansas City Chiefs (-6) @ 4-9 Oakland Raiders

            Kansas City also got some added motivation with Denver’s loss to San Diego, as if they win out they’ll have a shot at the division.

Chiefs (-6) over RAIDERS

 

8-5 Arizona Cardinals (-3) @ 5-8 Tennessee Titans

            Arizona’s defense is one of the more underrated units in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE.

Cardinals (-3) over TITANS

10-3 New Orleans Saints (-6.5) @ 5-8 St. Louis Rams

            I have visions of Chris Long and Robert Quinn harassing Drew Brees all day before the Saints rally to kick a game-winning field goal.

RAMS (+6.5) over Saints

 

6-6-1 Green Bay Packers @ 7-6 Dallas Cowboys (-7)

            Dallas used their mulligan game last week. They can’t fall behind by more than a game to the Eagles.

COWBOYS (-7) over Packers

9-4 Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) @ 5-8 Pittsburgh Steelers

            I wish I could wait on making this pick until after the Patriots game, because if the Pats lose, Cincinnati would be able to put itself in position for the #2 seed in the AFC.

Bengals (-2.5) over STEELERS

7-6 Baltimore Ravens @ 7-6 Detroit Lions (-6)

            Not comfortable laying six points on the back of Jim Schwarz in a coaching battle against John Harbaugh.

Ravens (+6) over LIONS

Last Week = 10-6

Season = 103-96-8
Thursday = 0-1

NFL Power Rankings and Week 14 NFL Picks

     Our picks last week weren't that great, so we took a solid hour or so to rank every NFL team in an effort to recalibrate for the stretch run. Below the rankings will be our picks.

Rank	Team	Record	PT Diff.	Outlook
1	Seahawks	11-1, 1st in NFC West	+154	With their offensive line back at full power, Seattle is dominant again.
2	Broncos	10-2, 1st in AFC West	+147	Still being pushed by New England, which in the long term will be a positve.
3	Saints	9-3, 1st in NFC South	+82	Won't hold their blowout loss in Seattle against them.
4	Panthers	9-3, 2nd in NFC South	+128	Their defense is talented enough to duplicae the Seahawks game plan against New Orleans.
5	Patriots	9-3, 1st in AFC East	+61	Hard to believe their leaky run defense won't be their undoing in January.
6	49ers	8-4, 2nd in NFC West	+100	Looked like themselves with Crabtree back, but too far out to run down Seattle in the NFC West.
7	Bengals	8-4, 1st in AFC North	+76	If they win out and New England loses a game, Cincinatti will have a first round bye.
8	Chiefs	9-3, 2nd in AFC West	+84	As overvalued as Kansas City was when they were undefeated, they are underrated now.
9	Lions	7-5, 1st in NFC North	+39	Have taken full advantage of their division rivals' injury woes.
10	Cowboys	7-5, 1st in NFC East	+26	Sean Lee will be back, which will stabilize the defense (relatively speaking).
11	Eagles	7-5, 2nd in NFC East	+19	Nick Foles is the real deal, but their defense will eventually undermine them.
12	Cardinals	7-5, 3rd in NFC West	+28	Quietly were one of the best teams in the third semester of the regular season.
13	Colts	8-4, 1st in AFC South	+11	They'll win the AFC South by default, but they won't be favorites against K.C. in Round 1.
14	Ravens	6-6, 2nd in AFC North	+14	Miracously, the defending Super Bowl champs have rallied to take pole position for the 6th seed.
15	Dolphins	6-6, 2nd in AFC East	+4	Sunday's match against Pittsburgh is an elimination game.
16	Bears	6-6, 2nd in NFC North	-9	Josh McCown has done everything he can to keep the Bears afloat while Cutler has been out.
17	Steelers	5-7, 3rd in AFC North	-15	Big Ben needs to run the table for Pittsburgh to have a chance to make the postseason.
18	Rams	5-7, 4th in NFC West	+1	Tons of reason for optimism based on what the Rams will get in next year's draft.
19	Chargers	5-7, 3rd in AFC West	+2	Another team that needs to run the table, but they get Denver and Kansas City in December.
20	Packers	5-6-1, 3rd in NFC North	-11	We're one more loss away from Aaron Rodgers getting shut down for the year.
21	Titans	5-7, 2nd in AFC South	-3	Too much Ryan Fitzpatrick involved for Tennessee to net the 6th seed.
22	Bills	4-8, 4th in AFC East	-40	A bad loss in their "home" game in Toronto has Buffalo looking ahead to 2014.
23	Giants	5-7, 3rd in NFC East	-60	At least they've made a respectable effort after their disastorous start.
24	Buccaneers	3-9, 3rd in NFC South	-68	Advanced metrics did say that Tampa was the best 0-8 team in NFL history.
25	Raiders	4-8, 4th in AFC West	-63	Can't figure out why this team is trying, but good for them.
26	Falcons	3-9, 4th in NFC South	-79	For nothing else, at least Roddy White didn't look washed up last week.
27	Vikings	3-8-1, 4th in NFC North	-77	Is it too early to preorder a Matt Schaub 2014 Vikings jersey?
28	Jaguars	4-9, 3rd in AFC South	-171	The Jags actually outscored opponents by a touchdown over the last five games.
29	Browns	4-8, 4th in AFC North	-66	Josh Gordon is my favorite fantasy football player of all time.
30	Jets	5-7, 3rd in AFC East	-121	I don't see the Jets winning the rest of the season.
31	Redskins	3-9, 4th in NFC East	-93	St. Louis will have a lot of fun with the second overall pick next year.
32	Texans	2-11, 4th in AFC South	-100	This year is a disaster, put Houston will turn it around fast with the #1 overall pick.

Chiefs (-3.5) over REDSKINS

           Washington is a good team to play when you’re trying to get back on track.

Vikings (+7) over RAVENS

            A.P. keeps this close.

PATRIOTS (-12.5) over Browns

            Cleveland has entered full-on tank mode in an effort to secure a top-5 pick.

Raiders (+2.5) over JETS
            New York’s offense has the least talent of any unit in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE.

BENGALS (-6.5) over Colts

            Cincinnati virtually locks up at least a #3 seed (meaning no Kansas City in round 1) with a win.

EAGLES (-3) over Lions

            I think I’m 2-11 picking Eagles’ games this year.

Dolphins (+3.5) over STEELERS

            The extra half point is huge.

BUCCANEERS (-3) over Bills

            Tampa Bay wishes the regular season started in November.

PACKERS (-3.5) over Falcons

            Green Bay has to win eventually without Aaron Rodgers…right?

BRONCOS (-13) over Titans

            R.I.P. the 2013 Tennessee Titans, whose season died when Jake Locker hit I.R.

CARDINALS (-6) over Rams

            St. Louis is much scarier at home than on the road.

CHARGERS (-3.5) over Giants

            San Diego’s season is on life support.

49ERS (-2.5) over Seahawks

            This is the game that will get everyone excited about the 49ers.

Panthers (+3) over SAINTS

            Asking New Orleans to beat Carolina after getting beat on by Seattle six days earlier is a tall order.

Cowboys (-1) over BEARS

            Does Dallas have the discipline to take full advantage of Chicago’s shoddy run defense? We’ll find out.
 

Last Week = 5-10-1 (ouch!)

Season = 93-90-8
Thursday = 1-0