In what
will amount to a reenactment of football in the 1930s, we’ll take the points.
SAINTS (-10) over Buccaneers
We
don’t feel warm and fuzzy about backing the Saints as double-digit favorites,
but it would be even scarier to back the Bucs under any circumstances after
last week’s debacle.
STEELERS (-7) over 49ers
At
first glance, this line is too high, but you have to dig deeper to make peace
with it. Pittsburgh will have had 10 days off and gets to play at home. San
Francisco played in a game that started at 10:15 eastern time Monday night, and
then has to travel cross-country to play at 1pm (10am Pacific, for those of you
not paying attention) Sunday.
VIKINGS (-2) over Lions
Minnesota
will reestablish themselves as wildcard contenders in their home opener.
Patriots (-1) over BILLS
Buffalo
will dominate for three quarters before finding a way to blow it and lose by 3.
BEARS (+2) over Cardinals
We
predicted the Cardinals would go 6-10. No Credentials will bank on that prediction
for one more week and take the points.
BROWNS (+2) over Titans
Two
words…Johnny Fucking Football. Also, people are overreacting after Tennessee’s
win over Tampa Bay.
Chargers (+3.5) over BENGALS
I don’t
know if San Diego wins, but the extra half point on this line is disrespectful
to Philip Rivers.
REDSKINS (+3.5) over Rams
St.
Louis has a history of playing down to it’s competition, and Washington wasn’t
horrendous in Week 1.
Falcons (+2) over GIANTS
So a
week after an epic choke job (even Tony Romo said, “Man the Giants fucked up
the end of that game”), New York is favored against a decent Falcons squad?
Ravens (-7) over RAIDERS
In
McGloin we do not trust.
Dolphins (-6) over JAGUARS
Miami
took care of business on the road last week against an inferior opponent, and
we think they do it again in Jacksonville.
Cowboys (+5.5) over EAGLES
If
Romo pulls this one out, we can start up some MVP chatter.
PACKERS (-3.5) over Seahawks
On
one hand, this line should be PACKERS (-3). On the other, I think Green Bay
wins. So…ya.
COLTS (-7) over Jets
Indy got kicked in the teeth last week, but they will bounce back at home.
Week 1 = 8-7-1
Thursday = 0-1 (second straight bullshit cover on
Thursday Night Football)
Spread Picks By Team
In a new
weekly installment, each week I’ll update my record of picking games for each
team. For example, I picked the Colts to cover in Buffalo. They got
annihilated, so I lost. Conversely, I picked the Seahawks to lose at St. Louis.
That did happen, so my pick is a win. You get the idea.
We took the week off last week (the Cowboys did have a bye week after
all), but we’re back with a sentence or two about every NFL game this weekend.
Browns @ Falcons
We
here at No Credentials are overjoyed that avid pot smoker Josh Gordon is back
on the field. Fans of the blog (all six of you) will remember us waxing poetic
about him a year ago when he was carrying three of my fantasy teams to glory.
Fearless Gordon forecast against the shitty Falcons = 6
receptions, 126 yards, 2 touchdowns
Titans @ Eagles
A
valuable lesson was learned by the masses last week…don’t trust Mark Sanchez
two straight weeks to lead your fantasy football team. The Titans are crappy
enough that LeSean McCoy should limit the amount of impact the Sanchize has
this week.
Lions @ Patriots
Friend
of the blog Ethan Hedrick will be at Gillette Stadium for this one. That has no
relevance to anything, but I thought I would note it.
Packers @ Vikings
Green
Bay needs to thank their lucky stars that Packer destroyer Adrian Peterson had
his suspension extended, although it’s hard to imagine that the Vikings
would’ve been galvanized by A.P.’s return. In other words, we don’t know if Peterson’s
absence will help or hurt the Vikings.
Jaguars @ Colts
The
over/under for this one is 50.5. Indianapolis might cover that by themselves.
Bengals @ Texans
Houston
kicked Andy Dalton’s ass two years in a row in the playoffs, and the Texans actually
looked decent last week with Ryan Mallet under center.
Buccaneers @ Bears
Under
normal circumstances this game would only have an impact on the order at the
top of the 2015 NFL Draft, but the NFC South is so terrible the Bucs still
could run the table and make the playoffs.
Cardinals @ Seahawks
At some
point Seattle has to wake up and kick someone’s ass.
Rams @ Chargers
Once upon a
time San Diego actually looked like a legitimate threat to make a run to the
Super Bowl. Now they can’t block, have no runningbacks, and their defense is
garbage. Better luck next year.
Dolphins @ Broncos
Losing two
of your top three receiving threats within one quarter is never a good thing,
so we’re pinning last week’s pitiful effort in St. Louis on that. We expect
Denver to right the ship this week.
Washington @ 49ers
Sadly, this
one might have to be renamed “The Over-rated Mobile Quarterbacks Bowl”.
GIANTS (+4) over Cowboys
With a huge
game coming up on Thanksgiving against the Eagles, don’t be shocked to see the
Cowboys looking a little unfocused for three quarters of this game. If they do
win, it will be by no more than three points.
Jets vs. Bills
One has to
pity the poor Bills, who after ceding a home game to Toronto for several years,
now have to play a home date in Detroit because of The Snowpocalypse.
Ravens @ Saints
I’m cheering for the Saints only because I
don’t want to see a 6-10 team win the NFC South.
A race billed as a last chance, no holds barred attempt
to make the playoffs turned into a snooze-fest thanks to a dominant run by the 2012 champion.
8.Home Loss For Ohio State Caps Miserable Day For Big 10 Following Michigan
getting shut out at Notre Dame and Michigan State surrendering 28 unanswered
points at Oregon, the Buckeyes looking mediocre at home was the
last thing the conference needed.
7. Miami
Dominates New England After Halftime, Wins 33-20
After missing the end of the 2013 season due to a
steroid suspension, Cruz used the extra time off to figure out new ways to
use performance-enhancing drugs without getting caughthow to naturally improve at his craft.
5. Andrew Luck Leads Improbable Back Door Cover Against
Broncos
Indianapolis should’ve been a lot closer in this
game, as they left at least 11 points on the table in the
second half. There is a chance that they are better than we think.
4. Cincinnati Weathers Late Push From Ravens, Wins 23-16
Steve Smith hit the way-back button with his go
ahead touchdown, but then was quickly one-upped by superstar A.J. Green.
This was a huge win for the Bengals, as it should silence some critics of The
Red Rifle.
3. Steelers Nearly Implode, Survive Late Scare Against
Cleveland
2. Buffalo Bills Pull Off a Shocking Overtime Win in
Chicago
There’s always one game a year in our Week 1 picks
column that we don’t follow our preseason predictions closely enough and end up
missing. At least it only happened once this year.
Our
first division preview of the summer takes us to the AFC East, which should
just be called “the thing the Patriots win every year as long as Tom Brady is
under center”. For each team, we list last season’s record, this year’s
schedule, key veterans for each squad (we borrowed the rankings and categories
from Pro Football Focus, so don’t get pissed at me when you see that Tom Brady
isn’t rated as a Blue Chipper), and the top rated rookies (we borrowed everyone
Scouts Inc. rated as an 80 or higher).
4. New York Jets
2013 Record = 8-8, Second in AFC East, Missed
Playoffs 2014 Schedule =Raiders, @ Packers, Bears,
Lions, @ Chargers, Broncos, @ Patriots, Bills, @ Chiefs, Steelers, BYE, @
Bills, Dolphins, @ Vikings, @ Titans, Patriots, @ Dolphins
Blue Chippers = None
High Quality Players = DE Muhammad Wilkerson, DT
Sheldon Richardson, DT Damon Harrison Solid Contributors = WR Eric Decker, WR Jeremy
Kerley, LT D’Brickashaw Ferguson, C Nick Mangold, CB Dimitri Patterson Impact Rookies = S Calvin Pryor (1-18, Louisville),
TE Jace Amaro (2-49, Texas Tech)
Good News = There’s a 0% chance Mark Sanchez will
take a snap under center.
Bad News = Did you watch Geno Smith last year?
Outlook = The 2013 New York Jets were one of the
worst 8-8 teams in the history of THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, which is truly
a testament to much maligned Head Coach Rex Ryan. They had the seventh worst
point differential in the league, getting outscored by 97 points. Chris Johnson
has the potential to reintroduce big plays into the Jets running game. Eric
Decker is better suited as a #2 receiver, but he’s still better than anyone
Gang Green trotted out last year. More so than any other team in the AFC East,
the Jets need mammoth contributions from their offensive and defensive lines to
cover up for their deficiencies under center and in the secondary. At least the
secondary has the promise of Dee Milliner (he was awesome in December after
looking terrible his first three months in the league) and rookie Calvin Pryor
to provide long-term stability, but Geno Smith gave little indication he’s a
viable franchise quarterback. It will take either a titanic progression from
Geno, or yet another career resuscitation by Michael Vick, to carry the Jets
into playoff contention.
Prediction = We’re guessing the defense
will keep them in games, and possibly even steal a couple at home, but New
York’s abysmal quarterback situation drops their record closer to where it
should’ve been last year. 5-11
3. Miami Dolphins
2013 Record = 8-8, Third in AFC East, Missed Playoffs 2014 Schedule = Patriots, @ Bills, Chiefs, Raiders
(London), BYE, Packers, @ Bears, @ Jaguars, Chargers, @ Lions, Bills, @
Broncos, @ Jets, Ravens, @ Patriots, Vikings, Jets
Blue Chippers = DE Cameron Wake
High Quality Players = LT Brandon Albert, DT Randy
Starks, CB Brent Grimes Solid Contributors = QB Ryan Tannehill, HB Knowshon
Moreno, WR Mike Wallace, WR Brian Hartline, WR Brandon Gibson, TE Charles Clay,
DT Jared Odrick, SS Reshad Jones Impact Rookies = T Ja’Wuan James (1-19, Tennessee),
WR Jarvis Landry (2-61, LSU)
Good News = Mike Sherman isn’t around to call dumb
plays.
Bad News =Junior bully Mike Pouncey will
miss at least the first half of the season.
Outlook = Miami had one of the weirder seasons of any
team last year, which makes sense considering they dealt with the first ever
pro sports bullying scandal. After putting themselves in position to control
their own destiny with a dramatic Week 15 victory over the Patriots, Miami only
managed to put up seven points combined against Buffalo and the Jets to stumble
to an 8-8 finish. The Dolphins canned General Manager Jeff Ireland (infamous
for asking Dez Bryant if his mother was a prostitute during Bryant’s NFL
Combine interview), but inexplicably left Head Coach Joe Philbin in charge.
There are quality players up and down the roster, but the Dolphins have failed
thus far to put it all together. Ryan Tannehill had a solid season in 2013, but
needs to improve his deep ball accuracy to fully take advantage of Mike
Wallace. Miami’s offensive line play was abysmal last season (Tannehill was
sacked 58 times), and the Dolphins were wise to make that a priority. Brandon
Albert comes from Kansas City to solidify left tackle, and first round pick
Ja’Wuan James will handle the right side. James was probably a reach, but we’ve
seen plenty of offensive line picks get panned at first glance (see Travis
Frederick last year for Dallas). Knowshon Moreno provides some punch to the
running game, but his greatest asset is the ability to pass protect. Defensively,
Miami slipped in almost every meaningful category from their 2012 performance.
Cameron Wake is one of the criminally underrated defensive players in the
league.
Prediction = We don’t think Ryan Tannehill has
another jump in progression, and their rushing attack will struggle to be
average. Fittingly, so will the team. 7-9
2. Buffalo Bills
2013 Record = 6-10, Last in AFC East, Missed Playoffs 2014 Schedule = @ Bears, Dolphins, Chargers, @
Texans, @ Lions, Patriots, Vikings, @ Jets, BYE, Chiefs, @ Dolphins, Jets,
Browns, @ Broncos, Packers, @ Raiders, @ Patriots
Blue Chippers = DT Kyle Williams
High Quality Players = HB C.J. Spiller, DE Marcell
Dareus Solid Contributors = LT Cordy Glenn, HB Fred Jackson,
DE Mario Williams, MLB Brandon Spikes Impact Rookies = WR Sammy Watkins (1-4, Clemson), T
Cyrus Kouandjio (2-44, Alabama)
Good News = They will return their entire
pass-rushing unit that set a franchise record for sacks last season.
Bad News = Bon Jovi might buy the team.
Outlook = Are the Buffalo Bills the Sacramento Kings
of the NFL, or are the Kings the Bills of the NBA? Both are going for bust to
try to make playoff runs when the odds seem hopelessly stacked against them.
Like the team we just discussed, the Bills are also leaning on a second year
quarterback to make gains. E.J. Manuel showed promise last year, but injuries
forced him to miss six games. Some of those durability issues can be attributed
to a shoddy offensive line, but Buffalo was aggressive in free agency and the
draft in patching that unit up. The Bills traded next year’s first round pick
to move up five spots and draft Sammy Watkins. Watkins has game changing
talent, and needs to develop immediate chemistry with Manuel in order for the
Bills to make a playoff run. Defensively, Buffalo was great at rushing the
quarterback, but often appeared indifferent to opposing runners. Without star
middle linebacker Kiko Alonso (blew his knee out in mini-camp), they need their
defensive lineman to be more aware of opposing ground games. Former Patriot
Brandon Spikes will also provide a lift in this department.
Prediction = A mostly healthy Manuel helps
Buffalo scratch and claw its way just over .500, which at least keeps the pick
they are sending to Cleveland in the mid-teens. 9-7
1. New England Patriots
2013 Record = 12-4, AFC East Champions, Lost AFC
Championship Game 2014 Schedule =@ Dolphins, @ Vikings,
Raiders, @ Chiefs, Bengals, @ Bills, Jets, Bears, Broncos, BYE, @ Colts, Lions,
@ Packers, @ Chargers, Dolphins, @ Jets, Bills
Blue Chippers = TE Rob Gronkowski, CB Darrelle Revis,
FS Devin McCourty
High Quality Players = QB Tom Brady, LT Nate Solder,
RT Sebastian Vollmer Solid Contributors = WR Julian Edelman, WR Danny
Amendola, LG Logan Mankins, DE Rob Ninkovich, DE Chandler Jones, DT Vince
Wilfork, MLB Jerod Mayo, OLB Dont’a Hightower, OLB Jamie Collins Impact Rookies = QB Jimmy Garoppolo (2-62, Eastern
Illinois)
Good News = Rob Gronkowski has already
been cleared for contact, and should be healthy (at least for a little while)
Week 1.
Bad News = Despite Tom Brady posting his lowest
quarterback rating in a decade, New England did nothing to improve the wide
receiver core.
Outlook = It’s weird to think that in Tom Brady’s
fifteenth year in the league New England boasts some of the best young talent
in the league, but it’s true. The Patriots employ plenty of players entering
their sophomore or junior NFL campaigns that if a leap is made, will catapult
them into the top of the AFC. This depth was likely the reason they made
riskier draft picks than you normally see from a Bill Belichick team. When
Brandon Browner returns from a drug related suspension in Week 5, the Patriots
could have the most dominant defensive unit that isn’t based out of the NFC
West. Inking Darrelle Revis to fill the void left by Aqib Talib was a
masterstroke, and we also like adding former Saint Will Smith to add depth at
defensive end. Jamie Collins and Chandler Jones should both make a run at high
quality status by the end of the season.
Offensively
New England chose to stand pat instead of bringing in top-flight talent. We’re
still the most intrigued by second year player Aaron Dobson (we wrote that last
year too, but he dropped that prediction along with nine other passes on a
Thursday night against the Jets), who possesses the physical tools to be a
number one receiver. Everything becomes easier for Tom Brady if Rob Gronkowski
can just stay on the field, but with each additional physical ailment it’s hard
to foresee him suiting up for more than ten games. If I were Belichick, I’d
consider limiting his snaps to red zone possessions only for the first half of
the year. We like the combination of Stevan Ridley (provided he stops fumbling
the ball) and PPR monster Shane Vereen in the backfield. Brandon Bolden has also
proven capable at times.
Prediction = Dobson
takes a leap, Shane Vereen stays healthy, and Brady gets his quarterback rating
over 100. Couple that with a top-5 defense, and we predict that the Patriots
will be playing for the Lombardi Trophy in February. 13-3
Our third
annual NFL division preview series begins with the division nearest and dearest
to the hearts of the majority of my readers (all five of them).
Franchise Players = LT D’Brickashaw Ferguson, C Nick
Mangold, CB Antonio Cromartie
Supporting Cast = RB Chris Ivory, WR Santonio Holmes, DE
Muhammad Wilkerson, MLB David Harris Notable Rookies = CB Dee Milliner (Alabama, 1-9), DT
Sheldon Richardson (Missouri, 1-13), QB Geno Smith (West Virginia, 2-39)
Offensive Outlook = Much like Kevin James, the Mark
Sanchez-Rex Ryan duo has been around way too long. Fortunately for Jets fans, Geno Smith appears to have the inside track
on the quarterback gig. I don’t expect either quarterback to set the world on
fire, but at least Smith would offer a glimmer of hope for the future. Neither
quarterback will have the benefit of an average receiving core, with only
Stephen Hill offering the upside of a #1 receiver. Santonio Holmes is coming
off major foot surgery, so to expect a return to peak performance from him is
asking a lot. Chris Ivory has finally been released from the “five-back-pileup”
system in New Orleans, and will get the chance to shoulder a full-time
workload. The offensive line is still solid, so barring injury (which was a
common occurrence during Ivory’s time with the Saints), we could be looking at
1,200 yards and eight to ten touchdowns.
Defensive Outlook = Typically, it’s not a good thing
for a defense when they trade away the most dominant cornerback in the NFL, but
the Jets did make the best long term decision when they shipped Darrelle Revis
to Tampa Bay. It would make no sense to pay Revis big-time money on a
rebuilding team, and their first two draft picks are fantastic building blocks.
There’s enough defensive talent for New York to steal some ugly 14-10 type
games. Ceiling = 9-7 - This would take an epic debut season
by Ivory, and a defensive effort reminiscent of the 2000 Baltimore Ravens.
We’ll give this a 1% chance of happening. Floor = 2-14 - You know who the quarterbacks are right? We'll give this a 30% chance of happening. Prediction = 5-11 I like the
moves they made to begin rejuvenating the defense, but it will be another year
before they can blow up the offense.
Franchise Players = RB C.J. Spiller, DE Mario Williams,
DT Kyle Williams, DT Marcell Dareus, FS Jairus Byrd
Supporting Cast = WR Stevie Johnson, C Eric Wood, CB/KR
Leodis McKelvin Notable Rookies = QB E.J. Manuel (Florida State, 1-16),
WR Robert Woods (USC, 2-41), MLB Kiko Alonso (Oregon, 2-46)
Offensive Outlook = After years of not fully
understanding the talent they possessed, C.J. Spiller will finally get the keys
to a full-time featured back role. He only needed 207 carries to crack the
1,200-yard barrier, so a workload closer to 300 should raise his production to
an elite level. It’s concerning that standout guard Andy Levitre left for
Tennessee, but Spiller has enough ability to overcome it. Stevie Johnson is a
solid but unspectacular wide receiver whose production will be directly tied to
his quarterback. Kevin Kolb isn’t the second coming of Jim Kelly (or for that matter,
Doug Flutie), but the offense will function better with him under center than
rookie E.J. Manuel. Ideally, Buffalo’s surprise first round pick spends a year
watching from the sidelines, but if Kolb keeps tripping on rubber mats, Manuel
will be forced to the field from the get go.
Defensive Outlook = For a unit that features four
blue-chip players, this defense was dreadful last season. However, they only
surrendered more than 24 points once during the final seven weeks of the
season. A large part of that late season improvement can be attributed to Mario
Williams, who played much better as a wrist injury healed during the season.
Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus form the most talented DT-duo in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL
LEAGUE. The middle layer of the defense was a major weakness, as Buffalo’s
linebackers were unable to take advantage of the defensive line’s efforts. If
Kiko Alonso can keep his head on straight, he presents the Bills best chance to
raise its defense to a top-12 level.
Ceiling = 11-5 – Double digit wins sounds like a
stretch (mostly because it is), but when you look at the slate of road games,
none of them jumps out as un-winnable (even their Week 17 game at New England.
The Patriots could be resting for the playoffs at that point).
Floor = 2-14 – We’ll call this “the too much E.J.
Manuel” scenario. Prediction = 6-10 Until
Buffalo generates stable production from the quarterback position, I’m not
endorsing them for a .500 season.
Franchise Players = WR Mike Wallace, C Mike Pouncey, DE
Cameron Wake, DT Randy Starks
Supporting Cast = QB Ryan Tannehill, RB Lamar Miller, WR
Brian Hartline, LG Richie Incognito, RT Tyson Clabo, DT Paul Soliai, MLB
Dannell Ellerbe, CB Brent Grimes, SS Reshad Jones, KR Marcus Thigpen Notable Rookies = OLB Dion Jordan (Oregon, 1-3), CB Jamar
Taylor (Boise State, 2-54, RB Mike Gillislee (Florida, 5-164)
Offensive Outlook = It’s early in our
preview series, but we will be hard pressed to find a team who’s fate is more
tied to the production of one player than the Miami Dolphins. All of the pieces
are here for Miami to leapfrog New England in the AFC East, but they need development
from Ryan Tannehill in order to do it. He has an elite deep threat in the form
of Mike Williams (who despite the fact that he’s grossly overpaid, he will
still have to be accounted for by opposing defenses on every snap), a solid
possession receiver with Brian Hartline, and a decent upgrade at tight end
with Dustin Keller. Lamar Miller appears poised to seize the starting role, and
could be in line for a breakout season. The loss of Jake Long is worrisome
(it’s generally not a good thing to lose a franchise left tackle), but Miami
patched the line effectively enough with the addition of former Falcon Tyson
Clabo. If Tannehill produces at even just a Joe Flacco like level (regular
season Flacco, not postseason), the Dolphins will make the playoffs.
Defensive Outlook = In today’s NFL, rushing the
passer is key, and few clubs do it better than the Miami Dolphins. Cameron Wake
generated a career high 15 sacks, and the addition of rookie Dion Jordan gives
Miami the chance to have two elite edge rushers. Dannell Ellerbe is huge
upgrade at middle linebacker, and he’ll provide a lift to a defense that
didn’t always take advantage of the efforts of their defensive tackles. Brent
Grimes isn’t the second coming of Rod Woodson (pre-safety years for you kids
that don’t remember him on the Steelers), but assuming he’s healthy after early
ACL surgery last year, he’s an upgrade.
Ceiling = 13-3 – If this happens, Ryan Tannehill will
be the most valuable waiver wire pickup in fantasy football.
Floor = 5-11 – If this happens, Miami will be looking
for a new quarterback in 2014. Prediction = 9-7 The
schedule breaks really well for the Dolphins (catching a down AFC North is the
only reason I have Miami above .500), and assuming Tannehill isn’t abysmal,
there’s enough talent on defense to carry Miami to wildcard contention.
1. New England Patriots
2012 Record = 12-4, first in AFC East, lost AFC
Championship Game to Ravens
Offensive Outlook = When your offense is built around
one tight end who is a likely PUP list member and another who’s in jail because
he’s involved with multiple murders, that’s a problem. Fortunately for New
England, the cupboard isn’t bare. They still have Tom Brady (and quite frankly,
that’s all you need), and the best offensive line the Patriots have ever had in
the Belichick era protects him. If Stevan Ridley can correct a recurring case
of fumbleitis, he’ll have an outside shot at 1,600 yards. Shane Vereen is also
a talented back who is an asset in the passing game. Receivers are where the
question marks begin. Rob Gronkowski is the most dominant red zone target in
the game, but how many games he suits up for is what will determine his impact.
Ultimately, the Patriots should only need a healthy Gronkowski for the
playoffs. Danny Amendola has all of the physical tools to fill Wes Welker’s
role, but his total number of games missed isn’t inspiring either. Aaron Dobson
is the biggest lottery ticket on the Patriots roster. If he can grasp the
playbook, he’ll be the most dominant wide receiver in the AFC East.
Defensive Outlook = It might not be as stout as the
2003 edition, but this year’s defense is the best one Belichick has had since
there second Super Bowl winning year. They might have the deepest linebacking
core in the AFC, and the edition of Tommy Kelly to play alongside Vince Wilfork
will only their run defense. Aqib Talib stabilized the secondary immediately
upon arriving in New England via a midseason trade, and one could safely bet on
him being even better after a full Patriots training camp. New England is a
dominant pass rusher away (I’m looking at you Chandler Jones) from fielding a
top-5 defense.
Ceiling = 14-2 – This scenario will need a healthy
Gronkowski, a rookie of the year campaign from Dobson, and a 12-sack season
from Jones.
Floor = 8-8 – Only will occur if the offense can’t
find its way and the Dolphins and Bills play to their potential. Prediction = 11-5 There’s been a ton of gloom and doom surrounding the
Patriots (understandably so. Not even the mid-90s Dallas Cowboys ever dealt
with a distraction like the Pats are faced with this off-season), but it’s
important to take a step back and look at the larger landscape. As you probably
could tell by looking at the other three teams in this preview, there’s a fair
chance the Patriots will be the only good team in the division. As you will see
in the next three AFC division previews, there’s a high probability that most
of the conference stinks too. There’s only one team in the AFC I’d rate ahead
of the Patriots. They might not be pretty at times (especially early in the
season), but I expect New England to end up with a first round bye when it’s
all said and done.
Franchise Players = RB Reggie Bush, T Jake Long, C Mike
Pouncey, LB Cameron Wake
Key Free Agent Acquisitions = LB E.J. Henderson, CB
Richard Marshall, G Eric Steinbach Potential Impact Rookies = QB Ryan Tannehill (Texas
A&M) 1-8, T Jonathan Martin (Stanford) 2-10, Lamar Miller (Miami) 4-2
Outlook = Miami just traded their best
corner to the Colts. Not quite as dramatic as the Red Sox shipping $253 million
worth of salary to Los Angeles for the equivalent of a poop sandwich, but it’s
the same idea. Their offensive line is good enough that they’ll steal a couple
of wins just by running over people, but this team is going no where fast.
Franchise Players = TE Dustin Keller, T D’Brickashaw
Ferguson, C Nick Mangold, LB Bart Scott, CB Darrelle Revis, CB Antonio
Cromartie
Key Free Agent Acquisitions = God, QB Tim Tebow, S LaRon
Landry Potential Impact Rookies = DE Quinton Coples (North
Carolina) 1-16, Stephen Hill (Georgia Tech) 2-11
Outlook = New York has a great defense (on
paper anyway), and they are built to primarily run the football. In other
words, they’d be great if the year was 1964. Unfortunately, they are not
constructed to succeed in the new pass-happy NFL. Mark Sanchez hasn’t developed
much since a solid rookie campaign in 2009, so expecting a leap from him is
foolish. Throw in the possibility of the home crowd chanting for Tebow after
every incompletion, and this makes for a miserable season for Sanchez and the
Jets. Expect it to be the last year we see Rex Ryan roaming the Jets’ sideline.
Franchise Players = QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, RB Fred Jackson,
WR Stevie Johnson, G Andy Levitre, DT Marcell Dareus, DT Kyle Williams, CB
Leodis McKelvin
Key Free Agent Acquisitions = DE Mario Williams, DE Mark
Anderson Potential Impact Rookies = CB Stephon Gilmore (South
Carolina) 1-10, T Cordy Glenn (Georgia) 2-9
Outlook = It’s not very often that the
largest free agent contract handed out comes from the Buffalo Bills, but that’s
what happened this off-season whey they inked Mario Williams to a $100 million
deal. Buffalo has the scariest defensive line in the AFC East, which is a good
thing when you have two dates with Tom Brady every year. There’s a little too
much Ryan Fitzpatrick involved to make me believe that this is a Super Bowl
contender, but this should be the season that the Bills finally return to the
playoffs.
Ceiling = 12-4
Floor = 6-10 No Credentials Prediction = 10-6
1. New England Patriots
2011 Record = 13-3, First in AFC East, Lost Super Bowl
Franchise Players = QB Tom Brady, WR Wes Welker, TE Rob
Gronkowski, TE Aaron Hernandez, G Logan Mankins, DT Vince Wilfork, LB Jerod
Mayo, LB Brandon Spikes, CB Devin McCourty, S Patrick Chung, K Stephen
Gostkowski
Key Free Agent Acquisitions = RB Joseph Addai, WR Brandon
Lloyd, G Robert Gallery, CB Will Allen Potential Impact Rookies = DE Chandler Jones (Syracuse)
1-21, LB Dont’a Hightower (Alabama) 1-25, RB Jeff Demps (Florida) Undrafted
Outlook = To illustrate just how weak the
Patriots schedule is this season, I’m going to list the likely quarterbacks
they will face in each of their games.
Week 1 = Jake Locker (I like Locker, but it will be his
first NFL start)
Week 2 = Kevin Kolb or John Skelton (aka “the crappy
quarterback” or “the other crappy quarterback”)
Week 3 = Joe Flacco
Week 4 = Ryan Fitzpatrick
Week 5 = Peyton Manning (five years ago this would be scary,
but at 85% arm strength, not so much anymore)
Week 6 = Russell Wilson or Matt Flynn (Wilson might’ve
gotten squashed by a defensive tackle by this point)
Week 7 = Mark Sanchez or Tim Tebow
Week 8 = Sam Bradford
Week 10 = Fitzpatrick
Week 11 = Andrew Luck (this will be scary in two or three
years, but he’s still a rookie)
Week 12 = Tebow (Sanchez might make it to Week 7, but not
Week 12)
Week 13 = Ryan Tannehill or Matt Moore
Week 14 = T.J. Yates, or T.J. Hooker, or whoever the Texans
backup is (Schaub will be hurt by Week 14)
Week 15 = Alex Smith
Week 16 = Blaine Gabbert or Chad Henne (it sucks to cheer
for the Jaguars)
Week 17 = Tannehill or Moore
Isn’t 85%
Peyton Manning still the best quarterback on this list? It’s ridiculous. As
soon as I phone this column in I’m placing a hefty wager on the over for New
England’s season win total.
10. My Son Vomits All Over Our Car While Driving
Christmas Eve Just
incase you were ever wondering, traveling with a toddler sucks.
9. Miami Ruins Mavericks Title Celebration
It’s
safe to say that this game was much more important to
Lebron James and the Heat than it was to the defending NBA champions.
Nevertheless, an impressive performance by the Heat.
8. Knicks Barely Hang On Versus Pierce-less Celtics
New
York played hard and
earned the win, but they shouldn’t feel to happy that a Boston team playing
without their best player came back from 17 down at one point to make a game of
it.
7. Packers Return to Form, Blast Bears
Chicago
had no answers
for Aaron Rodgers, who tossed five touchdown passes. Green Bay’s defense is
still suspect, but they won’t have a tough opponent until the NFC Championship
Game.
Chicago
fell asleep in the third quarter, but turned it on late to rally from 11
points down with less than four to play. Derrick Rose made the type of play
MVPs make (although he loses points for blowing by Derek Fisher, because Julius
Erving could probably trot out on a court today and blow by Derek Fisher) to
win the game.
4. Giants Stomp Jets, Brandon Jacobs Almost Stomps Rex
Ryan
Would
beating up Rex
Ryan have been worth 50 fantasy points for Jacobs? 3. Presents 2. Family 1. Christmas I hope everyone had a safe and happy holiday.
As always, these may or may not be actual questions from real or fake
readers.
Should I start
looking for apartments in Washington D.C. now, or can I wait a little bit? –
Peyton M., Indianapolis, IN
I’d probably start scoping
neighborhoods out, but don’t go too crazy yet. There’s still a few other places
you could end up next season. Here is No Credentials official rankings of the
teams that Manning will most likely be under center for in week 1 of the 2012
season.
1.Redskins
2.49ers
3.Seahawks
4.Dolphins
5.Colts
Would you be
“in the mood” after shooting 25 zombies in the head? – Charlotte, Allagash, ME
This question was raised after
a scene in “The Walking Dead” last week when Andrea guns down a bunch of
walkers, and then immediately follows that up by grabbing Shane’s crotch. I’m
not sure where I stand on this personally, although I do feel I speak for a
large percentage of the male population by saying I wish I could’ve spent more
time with a girl like Andrea in high school (not that I would’ve been able to capitilize
on that sort of situationty ty tf ftin
those days, but that was probably T.M.I).
On a scale of
1-10, how badly did Denver handle Kyle Orton? – Arvada, CO
I don’t think 10 is high enough
of a number. Let’s review two key blunders that led to Denver getting
absoleutly nothing for Orton.
1.Not realizing that there team sucked and plugging in Tebow from Day 1 –
You had to be on pretty good drugs to think that Kyle Orton was going to lead
this team to the playoffs. Orton can play well with a strong supporting cast,
but he isn’t going to carry a team on his back. Miami was willing to fork over
at least a second round pick for him before the start of the season. Denver
needed to sell high at this point and let (Jesus) Tebow play quarterback.
2.Not getting at least something for Orton when Tebow was named the
starter – Denver had one week to move Orton before the trade deadline. They
wouldn’t of gotten a second round pick at this point, but wouldn’t a fourth
round pick be better than nothing? As desperate as some teams are at the
quarterback position, I find it hard to believe that no one would take a flier
on Orton.
Can you please
tell Jack Edwards and Andy Brickley to shut the hell up? You’d swear to God
that these Bruins are the 2011 NHL version of the 1927 Yankees. – Drew E.,
Freeport, ME
This question hit my inbox
shortly after the end of the Bruins home game against the Blue Jackets a week
ago, when Brickley went out of his way to call Columbus a “tough opponent”.
Apparently Brickley doesn’t take in too much hockey outside of Boston, because
Columbus is the worst team in the NHL. I understand that they are local
broadcasters, but Edwards and Brickley need to show some perspective when they
are televising these games. Take a page out of Don Orsillo and Remdawg’s
playbook and actually present some semblance of balanced coverage.
Is it weird
that Brian (the dog from Family Guy) dates chicks, or is it weirder that chicks
date Brian? Megan L., Silver Lake, NH
The upgrade from dating a human
female as opposed to a female dog is much more signicant than going from a
human male to a male dog (some ladies out there would probably argue that male
dogs are cleaner), so the clear answer is that it is weirder that women date
Brian.
The poor
Buffalo Bills are crumbling. What is the best thing to compare their collapse
to? Jason C., Lake George, NY
I never watched it, but I
remember seeing commercials on ABC for a drama where Geena Davis was the
President. Readers correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe it was called
“Commander in Chief.” The show appeared to be fairly popular when it first
aired (let me define popular for a second by saying that I remember it was on
the cover of “TV Guide” once or twice). Inexplicably, the head writer of the
show left during the middle of the season, the quality of the episodes went
down the toilet, and it was cancelled after the first season. There’s the best
analogy for your 2011 Buffalo Bills.
Why is it news
that a college in Utah decided that it was stupid to join the Big East? Isn’t
that just common sense prevailing? Ted J., Bannockburn, IL
Welcome to the sad state of
affairs in the NCAA, where a team based out of the mountain time zone flirted
with joining a league of schools on the east coast.
Which event did
you care less about this past weekend, the MLS championship or the President’s
Cup? – Dave, Williston, VT
I’ll vote for the President’s Cup, since at first I
thought it was a boating event instead of a golf competition.
I have thought with effort (not the "I'm on a long
drive thinking, this is a relaxing shower thinking, or the after glow
thinking). I have spent hours numbering in excess in search of knowing exactly
what it would be like to be "The Best" at something. Anything. Wrench
(EDITORS NOTE: Ryan nicknamed me “Wrench” a long time ago. Perhaps one day I’ll
open this space up for him to explain that name, because I’m sure you read that
and said, “Huh?”), as you are a sports fan and I am not, I put it to you like
this. What did it feel like when Tiger Woods was hammering golf balls (not
chicks and Cadillac’s) and he was the best? Do you fear that it will get taken
away? Do you smile because you have written history? Then I think again, is it
more simple, easier, more comfortable being average? – Ryan B., Kearsarge, NH
Another multi-layered question out of the lovely
town of Kearsarge, so I’ll address each part in bullets.
-Not to make it sound
to simple, but Tiger Woods must’ve been feeling pretty damn good about himself
in his prime. Knowing you have the ability to contend for victory every week is
the best thing you can ask for as a professional athlete.
-Ultimately, the amount
of fear a top athlete (or top anything for that matter) is what determines how
long a person stays at the top of their profession. Michael Jordan is the best
example of this. As Jordan aged, he no longer had the explosiveness he had in
his youth, making it more difficult every year to drive to the basket. His
competitiveness wouldn’t let his body fail him, and Jordan improved other
aspects of his game (most notably, a post-up game and an unguardable 15-foot
fade-away). It was the fear of being anything less than the best that drove
Jordan to hone his craft.
-I suppose you’re
bothered less if you’re average, but even if whatever you’re best talent is
won’t make you a celebrity, isn’t it good to hone your strengths? Whether it’s
painting houses, selling cars, cooking pastries, writing poetry, whatever.
Sorry to get all inspirational here, but it’s my belief that everyone has at
least something to offer that’s above average.
10. “Real Steel” Continues to Be Heavily Advertised on Television
I’ve seen commercials for “Real Steel” roughly 1,200 times over the last three weeks. Every time one starts, I burst out laughing. Amazingly, someone doled out $80 million for a movie where Hugh Jackman becomes a creator of a life-sized Rock ‘em Sock ‘em Robot (and we wonder why the economy is in the toilet). This film is supposed to be a “science-fiction drama”, but I’ll be stunned if it doesn't leak out that this movie is supposed to be a satire. That’s the only way it makes sense.
9.Bengals Wide Receiver Jerome Simpson Plays Four Days After Drug Bust at His Home
Weird off the field situations always seem to impact the performance of a team. The most memorable incident for me was when Eugene Robinson was arrested for attempting to solicit sex from an undercover cop the night before Super Bowl 33 (made even more humorous because Robinson was named the NFL’s Man of the Year just hours before getting arrested). Robinson was roasted by John Elway multiple times, and Denver blew out Atlanta for their second straight Super Bowl victory. That event, and others that have followed (Raiders center Barrett Robbins going AWOL before Super Bowl 37, the man hunt for Vince Young a few years back) have taught me that messed up crap inevitably leads to losing. I originally was going to select Cincinnati to win this game before quickly remember that Jerome Simpson had almost 10 pounds of marijuana confiscated from his home. Without even considering that Alex Smith was going across the country to play a 1pm game on the east coast, I penciled in the 49ers as my pick. The offense looked like a limp noodle for three and a half quarters, but woke up just in time to make me feel really smart.
8. Texas A&M Officially Announces 2012 Move to SEC
Not that the move had anything to do with their last game, but it is humorous to see Texas A&M bolt the Big 12 a day after giving away a 17 point lead at home against conference rival Oklahoma State. 7. LSU Takes Over #1 Ranking From Oklahoma I watched about ten minutes of LSU going on the road and dismantling West Virginia Saturday night. I’m not sure this team is any better than Oklahoma or Alabama, but they deserve he top spot after defeating three ranked opponents in the first four weeks.
6. Darren McFadden Runs All Over Jets, Leads Raiders to Victory
I thought Oakland had a chance if it was a low scoring game, but never would’ve thought Run DMC would go completely bonkers in this one. For those of you that drafted him in the early part of the second round of your fantasy league, congratulations.
5. Lions Comeback From 20-0 Deficit, Win in Overtime Against Vikings
I was at Story Land (a rinky-dink amusement park in the Mount Washington Valley, for those of you not familiar with New Hampshire hot-spots) during the early games, so while my wife was changing my son’s diaper, I called my dad for some scores. My dad has been Vikings fan for years (someday we’ll let him do an essay on this site about how much it sucks being a Minnesota fan), so I opened the conversation by asking how much the Vikings were losing by. Surprisingly, he informed me that Minnesota was leading 20-10 at the start of the fourth. Without blinking, I replied, “Well that’s plenty of time for Minnesota to blow the game.” Needless to say, laughter filled the Muir house when I got home and saw that Detroit won in overtime.
4. Tony Stewart Wins Second Straight Chase Race in New Hampshire
If Stewart wins again next week, feel free to never read any insight into NASCAR I have to offer.
3. Giants Break Michael Vick’s Right Hand, Stun Eagles in Philly
This game would’ve been more fun for me if Vick weren’t the quarterback for one of my fantasy teams (a team that also lost Kenny Britt, who probably shredded a knee ligament or two against Denver today). Nevertheless, I’m very happy to see the “all-hype team” (copyrighted by Cowboys defensive coordinator Rob Ryan) struggling. You could argue that if some guy named Mike Kafka wasn’t involved the Eagles would be 3-0 right now, but I’ll take Philadelphia losses anyway I can get them.
1. Bills End 15 Game Losing Streak Against Patriots
I was chatting with a stranger the other day about how I thought the Patriots defense was terrible and Buffalo was going to score a ton of points on them. The guy, clearly perturbed, told me, “People that actually know what they are talking about say that New England will have the best defense in the league by Week 8.” Apparently who ever he listens to is under the impression that the Patriots’ cornerbacks will have growth spurts and become four inches taller. New England couldn’t cover anyone, and Brady kept throwing the ball to the wrong guys. Huge win for the Bills.
