2015 Week 7 NFL Picks

Bills (-4.5) over Jaguars
RAMS (-6.5) over Browns
Steelers (+3) over CHIEFS
DOLPHINS (-5) over Texans
Jets (+8) over PATRIOTS
Vikings (-1.5) over LIONS
TITANS (+6.5) over Falcons
Buccaneers (+3.5) over WASHINGTON
COLTS (-5) over Saints
CHARGERS (-4) over Raiders
GIANTS (-3) over Cowboys
PANTHERS (-3.5) over Eagles
CARDINALS (-9) over Ravens

2015 Week 6 NFL Picks

BROWNS (+4.5) over Broncos

            Cleveland’s defense is good enough to keep this a low scoring affair.

Bengals (-3) over BILLS

            In E.J. Manuel we do not trust.

VIKINGS (-4) over Chiefs

            This is a pivotal game if Minnesota intends to secure a wildcard spot in the NFC.

JAGUARS (-2) over Texans

            No J.J. Watt spells trouble against the surprisingly spunky Jaguars passing attack.

LIONS (-3.5) over Bears

            It’s hard to back Detroit after their stink bomb they laid last Sunday, but one needs to remember that was only six days after they should’ve had first and goal on the one-yard line at Seattle.

Washington (+7) over JETS

            This pick is based solely on our belief that the NFC is the superior conference.

Cardinals (-4.5) over STEELERS

            The funkiest game on the Week 6 slate.

Dolphins (+2) over TITANS

            We like the upgrade from Joe Philbin to literally any other human being on planet Earth.

Panthers (+7) over SEAHAWKS

            Both clubs may have trouble combining to score seven points.

PACKERS (-10.5) over Chargers

            Scoring won’t be an issue here, but we like Green Bay in a rout after San Diego gave a win away against a washed up Michael Vick.

Ravens (-2) over 49ERS

            I honestly have no idea how to pick this game. Normally we say take the points, but our picks have been so awful the past couple of weeks we’re veering the other way.

Patriots (-10) over COLTS

            REVENGE!

EAGLES (-4.5) over Giants

            Another case of us veering against our default choice of taking the points.

 

Week 5 = 7-6-1

Thursday =0-1

Season = 36-39-3

Spread Picks By Team

Packers = 5-0

Vikings = 4-0

Patriots = 3-0-1

Lions = 4-1

Titans = 3-1

Seahawks = 3-1-1

Washington = 3-2

Rams = 3-2

49ers = 3-2

Chiefs = 3-2

Colts = 3-2

Jaguars = 3-2

Broncos = 3-2

Falcons = 3-3

Texans = 2-2

Browns = 2-3

Eagles = 2-3

Giants = 2-3

Bears = 2-3

Chargers = 2-3

Bills = 2-3

Cowboys = 2-3

Steelers = 1-2-2

Bengals = 1-3-1

Dolphins = 1-3

Jets = 1-3

Raiders = 1-4

Buccaneers = 1-4

Cardinals = 1-4

Ravens = 0-4-1

Panthers = 0-4

Saints = 0-6

2015 NFL Week 2 Picks

Texans (+3) over PANTHERS

            In what will amount to a reenactment of football in the 1930s, we’ll take the points.

SAINTS (-10) over Buccaneers

            We don’t feel warm and fuzzy about backing the Saints as double-digit favorites, but it would be even scarier to back the Bucs under any circumstances after last week’s debacle.

STEELERS (-7) over 49ers

            At first glance, this line is too high, but you have to dig deeper to make peace with it. Pittsburgh will have had 10 days off and gets to play at home. San Francisco played in a game that started at 10:15 eastern time Monday night, and then has to travel cross-country to play at 1pm (10am Pacific, for those of you not paying attention) Sunday.

VIKINGS (-2) over Lions

            Minnesota will reestablish themselves as wildcard contenders in their home opener.

Patriots (-1) over BILLS

            Buffalo will dominate for three quarters before finding a way to blow it and lose by 3.

BEARS (+2) over Cardinals

            We predicted the Cardinals would go 6-10. No Credentials will bank on that prediction for one more week and take the points.

BROWNS (+2) over Titans

            Two words…Johnny Fucking Football. Also, people are overreacting after Tennessee’s win over Tampa Bay.

Chargers (+3.5) over BENGALS

            I don’t know if San Diego wins, but the extra half point on this line is disrespectful to Philip Rivers.

REDSKINS (+3.5) over Rams

            St. Louis has a history of playing down to it’s competition, and Washington wasn’t horrendous in Week 1.

Falcons (+2) over GIANTS

            So a week after an epic choke job (even Tony Romo said, “Man the Giants fucked up the end of that game”), New York is favored against a decent Falcons squad?

Ravens (-7) over RAIDERS

            In McGloin we do not trust.

Dolphins (-6) over JAGUARS

            Miami took care of business on the road last week against an inferior opponent, and we think they do it again in Jacksonville.

Cowboys (+5.5) over EAGLES

            If Romo pulls this one out, we can start up some MVP chatter.

PACKERS (-3.5) over Seahawks

            On one hand, this line should be PACKERS (-3). On the other, I think Green Bay wins. So…ya.

COLTS (-7) over Jets

            Indy got kicked in the teeth last week, but they will bounce back at home.

Week 1 = 8-7-1

Thursday = 0-1 (second straight bullshit cover on Thursday Night Football)

Spread Picks By Team

            In a new weekly installment, each week I’ll update my record of picking games for each team. For example, I picked the Colts to cover in Buffalo. They got annihilated, so I lost. Conversely, I picked the Seahawks to lose at St. Louis. That did happen, so my pick is a win. You get the idea.

Dolphins = 1-0

Jets = 1-0

Browns = 1-0

Texans = 1-0

Chargers = 1-0

Eagles = 1-0

Redskins = 1-0

Packers = 1-0

Vikings = 1-0

Lions = 1-0

Bears = 1-0

Falcons = 1-0

Seahawks = 1-0

Rams = 1-0

49ers = 1-0

Chiefs = 1-1

Patriots = 0-0-1

Steelers = 0-0-1

Bills = 0-1

Ravens = 0-1

Bengals = 0-1

Colts = 0-1

Jaguars = 0-1

Titans = 0-1

Raiders = 0-1

Cowboys = 0-1

Giants = 0-1

Saints = 0-1

Buccaneers = 0-1

Panthers = 0-1

Cardinals = 0-1

Broncos = 0-2

2015 Week 1 NFL Picks

     Loyal readers of this blog (all three and a half of you) will recall that we benched ourselves from making picks last year because we were doing so bad. No Credentials has picked ourselves off the mat, brushed it off, and has dialed ourselves in for picks again. The best news is we didn't even lose our pick on Thursday night (we didn't win either, but who's counting?).

Packers (-7) over BEARS

            It’s the largest point spread of the Week 1 slate (tied with the Patriots Thursday night), and we forecast a rout.

Chiefs (+1) over TEXANS

            J.J. Watt is an amazing talent (you didn’t need me to tell you that), but he’s getting over exposed in the media. Couple that with the Alex Smith-Brian Hoyer mismatch, and we’ll take the Chiefs as a road dog.

JETS (-3.5) over Browns

            Ryan Fitzpatrick is good enough to beat the Browns. He should put that on his tombstone.

Colts (-3) over BILLS

            Buffalo is a trendy upset pick, but No Credentials isn’t ready to buy stock in Tyrod Taylor.

Dolphins (-3.5) over REDSKINS

            Kirk Cousins is the most overrated quarterback in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. A scary Miami defensive line will expose him.

JAGUARS (+3.5) over Panthers

            Jacksonville is frisky this year. They’ll hang with (and beat) a receiver-less Panthers squad.

RAMS (+4) over Seahawks

            St. Louis beat Seattle at home last year (it was bullshit, but a win is a win), so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that they could manage to only lose by a field goal.

Saints (+2.5) over CARDINALS

            The sky is falling for both of these teams, so we’ll take the points.

CHARGERS (-3) over Lions

            Of all the games this week, this one has the widest range of outcomes. Normally I’d take the points in this situation (like the previous pick), but backing Jim Caldwell and Matthew Stafford on the road is a dangerous proposition.

BUCCANEERS (-3) over Titans

            If we had ambition we would figure out if two quarterbacks drafted first and second faced off against each other in their regular season debuts. Ultimately, the talent around Jameis Winston is much stronger than what poor Marcus Mariotta is stuck with.

RAIDERS (+3) over Bengals

            Oakland signed Aldon Smith Friday, and he might play against the Bengals, which is insane.

Ravens (+5) over BRONCOS

            We have Baltimore winning the AFC, so we didn’t hesitate to grab the points here.

COWBOYS (-6) over Giants

            Go ahead NBC. Keep showing the Odell Beckham catch over and over and over and over and over and over again. It keeps people from remembering that the Cowboys actually won that game.

FALCONS (+3) over Eagles

            Holy over/under Batman. Unless the Packers beat Chicago 70-0, this is your best bet for highest scoring game of the weekend.

49ERS (-2.5) over Vikings

            All of the logical signs point to Minnesota in this one. San Francisco may have endured the worst off-season in the history of the league. Minnesota has one of the best collections of young talent. A pissed off Adrian Peterson is returning. That’s exactly why we’re picking San Francisco to win by a field goal. The Vikings will be fine (we have them making the playoffs as a wildcard), but the 49ers will circle the wagons for their home opener. 

Thursday = 0-0-1 (GARBAGE back door push by the Steelers)

NFL Division and Playoff Picks

            You don’t even have to bother watching any NFL games this year, because No Credentials is here today to tell you how every team will do this season.

 

NFC EAST

Cowboys 12-4

Eagles 10-6

Giants 7-9

Washington 5-11

            The Eagles will look like world-destroyers some weeks, but ultimately Sam Bradford’s health will prevent them from winning the division. We love the Giants offense this year, but even when a nine fingered Jason Pierre-Paul returns, it won’t be enough to lift their putrid defense. Behind the best offensive line in football, the Cowboys will control the NFC East.

NFC North

Packers 13-3

Vikings 9-7

Bears 6-10

Lions 5-11

            Aaron Rodgers is our pick to win NFL MVP, as we’re going to really see how good he is without Jordy Nelson on the field. Minnesota has talent up and down the roster, and should be good enough to sneak into the playoffs. Chicago is a car-fire, and we expect Jim Caldwell to be the parachute that pulls the Lions down into the abyss.

NFC South

Falcons 10-6

Saints 7-9

Buccaneers 7-9

Panthers 6-10

            All of these teams are still mediocre, but Atlanta did the most during the off-season to make us believe they can right the ship.

NFC West

Seahawks 12-4

Rams 9-7

49ers 6-10

Cardinals 4-12

            The NFC West has been the class of the divisions for the past four years, but their grip on that title is slipping. San Francisco had one of the worst off-seasons in the history of THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, and Arizona screams regression. Those two squads growing weaker will lift the Rams over .500, but we have them narrowly missing the playoffs. Seattle has lost a ton of depth from its Super Bowl winning squad two years ago, but they are still the class of the field.

AFC East

Patriots 11-5

Dolphins 10-6

Bills 7-9

Jets 6-10

            For the first time in several years during the Brady era (we won’t count 2008), the Patriots should actually get pushed for the division title. We still expect them to win it, but Miami will be hot on their heels. Buffalo and New York won’t be walks in the park, but their lousy quarterback production (sorry Tyrod) will doom them.

AFC North

Ravens 12-4

Steelers 10-6

Bengals 6-10

Browns 4-12

            Baltimore has done a nice job reloading since the bulk of their Super Bowl winning roster left, and we forecast them rejoining the AFC elite. No Credentials doesn’t know how we found 10 wins for Pittsburgh, but their offense will be elite when Le’Veon Bell returns. This feels like the year that Andy Dalton implodes in regular season games, so at least he won’t get to choke in Round 1. Cleveland…well they are the Browns.

AFC South

Colts 12-4

Texans 9-7

Jaguars 5-11

Titans 4-12

            Indy still has a stranglehold on the South, as Houston did not properly address their quarterback situation (sorry Brian Hoyer). Jacksonville won’t be all that good, but at least they have hope for the future.

AFC West

Broncos 11-5

Chiefs 9-7

Chargers 6-10

Raiders 6-10

            2015 will probably go down as Peyton Manning’s last stand, and his noodle arm should be good enough to give Denver another division title. On paper Kansas City is the most dangerous threat, but Alex Smith’s limitations will keep them out of the playoff picture. San Diego is due for a drop in production, while Oakland will take another step towards consistent competitiveness.

Wildcard Round (home team in caps)

SEAHAWKS over Vikings, Eagles over FALCONS, Dolphins over BRONCOS, PATRIOTS over Steelers

Divisional Round

PACKERS over Eagles, COWBOYS over Seahawks, RAVENS over Miami, Patriots over COLTS

Conference Championship

PACKERS over Cowboys, RAVENS over Patriots

Super Bowl

Packers over Ravens

NFL Divisional Round Picks

Don't have a lot of time this week, so we'll keep it short and sweet.

PATRIOTS (-7) over Ravens - Too much buzz that Baltimore is Tom Brady's scariest opponent, so we are going to go the other way and predict a Patriots blow out. New England 28, Baltimore 10

SEAHAWKS (-11.5) over Panthers - You can't make this line high enough. Seattle 24, Carolina 0

Cowboys (+6) over PACKERS - Rodgers calf issue gives us logical reasons to pick a Cowboys upset. Dallas 31, Green Bay 28

BRONCOS (-7) over Colts - It's weird that a team quarterbacked by Peyton Manning is under the radar, but that's exactly what has happened. They'll make noise this week. Denver 34, Indianapolis 20

Wild-Card Round = 3-1

NFL Wildcard Picks

            No Credentials benched it self from regular season picks, but that doesn’t mean we couldn’t come back to offer bad advice for the playoffs.

PANTHERS (-6.5) over Cardinals

            Arizona might be fielding the worst starting offense in playoff history.

Carolina 24, Arizona 3

Ravens (+3.5) over STEELERS

            We think Pittsburgh is better, but the wacky weather that should be occurring during the game works in Baltimore’s favor. Well, in terms of covering the spread.

Pittsburgh 13, Baltimore 10

COLTS (-4) over Bengals

            The Red Rifle needs to deliver in at least one playoff game before we’d ever endorse wagering on him. A hobbled A.J. Green won’t make things any easier.

Indianapolis 31, Cincinnati 13

COWBOYS (-7) over Lions

            At first glance this line is at least three points too high, but when you factor in the weak schedule Detroit faced on it’s way to the postseason, it makes sense.

Dallas 28, Detroit 17

NFL Power Rankings

            We are 75% of the way through the NFL regular season (sad, but true!), and now is the time where teams begin to really separate themselves. What better time to offer up a ranking of every NFL squad.

First Overall Pick Contenders

32. Oakland Raiders (1-11) – Well, at least they’ve won a game. It would be best for them to lose out so they can lock up the number one pick. Drafting a quarterback or trading the pick to surround Derek Carr with more talent are both great options.

31. New York Jets (2-10) – Rex Ryan deserves better than the putrid roster he’s forced to work with on a weekly basis.

30. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10) – Blake Bortles has been emphatically uninspiring, which means he’s either the next Troy Aikman or the next Blaine Gabbert.

29. Tennessee Titans (2-10) – There are decent players here, but the quarterback situation is so dreadful there is no hope of contention. If Oakland were to trade the number one overall pick, Tennessee would be the most logical trade partner.

28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-10) – Tampa Bay is so bad, they are out of playoff contention in a division that is led by a team that is 5-7. We think they’d like to take the contract they gave Josh McCown back.

Hopelessly Irrelevant

27. Carolina Panthers (3-8-1) – Everyone expected the offense to struggle, but no one thought the defense would fall off so dramatically from last year.

26. Washington (3-9) – If not for the infamous Herschel Walker trade from Dallas to Minnesota in 1989, the RGIII trade would go down as the worst transaction in NFL history.

25. New York Giants (3-9) – Remember when the Giants were 3-2 this year after emphatically ending the “Kirk Cousins is the second coming of Joe Theismann” campaign in Washington? Me neither.

24. Chicago Bears (5-7) – I hope Marc Trestman has his resume up to date.

They Play in the NFC South, So They Are Sort Of Relevant

23. Atlanta Falcons (5-7) – Incredibly, the team we have ranked as the tenth worst club in the league is leading their division going into the last month of the regular season.

Good Bad Teams

22. Minnesota Vikings (5-7)

21. St. Louis Rams (5-7) – We put these clubs together because both squads are a pain in the ass to play. Minnesota in particular deserves props for how well they’ve played despite the Adrian Peterson situation hanging over their franchise.

20. Houston Texans (6-6) – Oddly enough, the only team in football with a .500 record. Houston is a solid quarterback away from serious playoff contention.

19. Cleveland Browns (7-5) – It’s time to get Johnny Fucking Football onto the field.

18. New Orleans Saints (5-7) – We really want the Saints to go 3-1 so we can avoid a 7-9 team making the playoffs. Let’s look at their remaining schedule.

Week 14 = vs. Panthers (WIN)

Week 15 = @ Bears (WIN, the Bears are garbage)

Week 16 = vs. Falcons (WIN, and they clinch the NFC South with the victory)

Week 17 = @ Buccaneers (LOSS, they will have nothing to play for)

            You heard it here first…the Saints will finish 8-8.

17. Buffalo Bills (7-5) – We can’t in good faith rank a team quarterbacked by Kyle Orton any higher.

Enigmas

16. San Francisco 49ers (7-5) – We’re not sure if it’s the hoopla surrounding Jim Harbaugh’s contract status, the league figuring out Colin Kaepernick, or Frank Gore finally losing it, but something is just off with the 49ers this year.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) – Pittsburgh is really going to regret losing against two of the five worst teams in the NFL.

14. Kansas City Chiefs (7-5) – Kansas City is really going to regret their shocking loss at Oakland.

13. Baltimore Ravens (7-5) – Baltimore is really going to regret that late game collapse against San Diego.

12. San Diego Chargers (8-4) – San Diego’s defense has completely fallen apart, but Phil Rivers has literally put the team on his back.

11. Miami Dolphins (7-5) – I’d like the Dolphins so much more if Ryan Tannehill could consistently complete a pass that needs to travel more than 15 yards through the air.

Wish They Had Their Starting QB

10. Arizona Cardinals (9-3) – It’s a damn shame Carson Palmer went down, otherwise the Cardinals would be ranked third or fourth on this list. With Drew Stanton under center, they will be lucky to go 2-2 in December (remaining schedule is Chiefs, @ Rams, Seahawks, @ 49ers).

Best Case Scenario = Winning One Playoff Game

9. Dallas Cowboys (8-4) – I’ll admit the loss on Thanksgiving was pretty demoralizing, but you have to remember that all of our losses have occurred at home. If we can climb into a wildcard spot, it’s not unrealistic to think we could make noise in January.

8. Detroit Lions (8-4) – Detroit boasts the best scoring defense in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, and there is enough star power on offense to think they could get hot in the playoffs.

7. Cincinnati Bengals (8-3-1) – We’d like to rank them higher, but then we remember Andy Dalton is the Bengals starting quarterback.

6. Indianapolis Colts (8-4) – Indy has gotten smoked whenever they've taken the field against an elite team, but Andrew Luck has the ability to put the Colts on his back in the playoffs.

Super Bowl Contenders

5. Philadelphia Eagles (9-3) – The Eagles are an elite quarterback away from being the best team in football. Having Nick Foles or Mark Sanchez under center in January will be a problem.

4. Seattle Seahawks (8-4) – Seattle is flying under the radar, but we’re forecasting a first round bye for the defending Super Bowl champs.

3. Green Bay Packers (9-3) – In a season full of impressive quarterback performances, what Aaron Rodgers did to lead the Packers to victory over the Patriots is near the top of the list.

2. Denver Broncos (9-3) – Denver righted themselves offensively after they laid an egg in St. Louis.

1. New England Patriots (9-3) – There is no shame in losing at Lambeau Field, but the Patriots can’t afford to slip up the rest of the way.

Week 7 NFL Picks

            For a second straight week, we just barely squeaked over .500, which means that we still have to offer up pitiful football picks. We’re already down thanks to the stupid Patriots (can’t cover against Geno Smith guys, really?), so this week should be the swan song. Fortunately for the general public, we’re posting these less than a hour before kickoff to ensure as little damage happens to the gambling community.

Bengals (+3.5) over COLTS 

REDSKINS (-6) over Titans

BEARS (-3.5) over Dolphins

JAGUARS (+6) over Browns

RAMS (+7) over Seahawks

Panthers (+6.5) over PACKERS

RAVENS (-6.5) over Falcons

BILLS (-5.5) over Vikings

LIONS (-2.5) over Saints

CHARGERS (-4) over Chiefs

Giants (-6.5) over COWBOYS

Cardinals (-4) over RAIDERS

49ers (+7) over BRONCOS

STEELERS (-3) over Texans

Week 6 = 8-7

Thursday = 0-1

Season = 44-55

NFL Week 2 Picks

            Last week we did our best to stick to our pre-season predictions (only failing with the Bears-Bills game), and we rode that to the best Week 1 in the history of this blog. Sadly, we went against our pre-season prediction of the Steelers sucking when we backed them Thursday (although was there really any proper way to gauge how Baltimore was going to play in the wake of the Ray Rice scandal?), so we’re going back to basics for the rest of our Week 2 picks. 

           New wrinkles we are going to add each week with our picks is to highlight teams we feel are trending up or down. For our purposes, we will only relate that to how we forecasted each team to do before the season (for example we predicted the Giants to finish last in the NFC East, so there’s no reason for me to list them in the Stock Down section). We don’t like to overreact to Week 1, so there aren’t too many teams we are going to discuss.

Stock Up

Atlanta Falcons – Matt Ryan was head and shoulders above any other quarterback in the league with his Week 1 performance against the Saints. That level of play over an entire season can drag a mediocre roster into the playoffs.

Tennessee Titans – We announced earlier in the summer that my son would take over as the Titans quarterback in my Madden 15 franchise, so I was pleasantly surprised by Jake Locker’s performance at Arrowhead Stadium last week.

Indianapolis Colts – It’s weird typing this about a team that lost, but the Colts left a ton of points on the board against Denver. A few breaks here or there and Andrew Luck might’ve been able to steal the game from Peyton Manning. I wouldn’t of thought it possible before the season, but there is a chance they can finish as the second seed in the AFC.

Stock Down

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – You can’t lose a game at home to a team quarterbacked by Derek Anderson, regardless of the quality of defense your team is going against. There’s a good chance Josh McCown has turned into a pumpkin after his magical run with the Bears last year.

San Diego Chargers – It was trendy before the season to pick San Diego to upset the Broncos in the AFC West, but blowing an eleven-point lead to Carson Palmer shows the Chargers are the same frustrating team they’ve been for the better part of the last decade.

            Without further ado, the Week 2 picks.

1-0 Lions (+2.5) over 1-0 PANTHERS

            Detroit is well equipped to handle an overmatched Panthers secondary. We’re happy to get points here.

1-0 BILLS (Even) over 1-0 Dolphins

            Thankfully for Buffalo fans E.J. Manuel was just competent enough to deliver a shocking overtime win in Chicago. We like Buffalo’s chances of shutting down Miami’s offense.

0-1 Jaguars (+5.5) over 0-1 WASHINGTON

            Washington shouldn’t be favored by more than a field goal against any team in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE.

1-0 TITANS (-3.5) over 0-1 Cowboys

            Tennessee has plenty of talent at wide receiver to dominate the comically awful Cowboys defense.

0-1 GIANTS (+2.5) over 1-0 Cardinals

            We hate the Giants but the schedule makers did them a favor here. Arizona’s game against San Diego finished at roughly 1:15 am Eastern time on Tuesday, and now they have to travel three time zones and play at 1:00 pm Sunday.

0-1 Patriots (-6.5) over 1-0 VIKINGS

            New England was our pick before the news about Adrian Peterson not playing broke. This could be a blow out.

0-1 Saints (-6.5) over 0-1 BROWNS

            Somehow a two-team teaser with the Patriots and Saints won’t work, even though it looks so simple on paper.

1-0 Falcons (+5.5) over 1-0 BENGALS

            We have the Bengals winning by three.

1-0 BUCCANEERS (-6) over 0-1 Rams

            St. Louis looks well on their way to the top overall pick after a listless performance at home against the Vikings.

1-0 Seahawks (-6) over 0-1 CHARGERS

            Here’s a new rule for 2014…don’t bet against the Seahawks unless the spread is over a touchdown or they are on the road at San Francisco.

0-1 RAIDERS (+3) over 1-0 Texans

            After Oakland heroically pulled off a back door cover at New York, we’re happy to get three points with them against Houston.

0-1 PACKERS (-8) over 1-0 Jets

            Here’s your suicide pool pick.

1-0 BRONCOS (-12.5) over 0-1 Chiefs

            It’s a really weird line, but when Kansas City is down 14-0 in the first quarter do you really trust Alex Smith to cover?

1-0 49ERS (-7) over 0-1 Bears

            Rumor has it Curtis Conway might come out of retirement to catch passes from Jay Cutler this week. We’ll also predict over 200 yards rushing for San Francisco.

0-1 COLTS (-3) over 1-0 Eagles

            To say Philadelphia was a little wobbly against Jacksonville last week is an understatement. Andrew the Giant will take care of business at home.

           

Week 1 = 10-6

Thursday = 0-1

NFL Week 1 Picks

            We’re back with another year of shoddy football picks. No Credentials nailed Week 1 (visit our Facebook page for proof, and while your there do me a solid and like the page), so perhaps we’re in for a banner gambling year.

Saints (-3.5) over FALCONS

       Assuming the Saints are one of the three best teams in the NFC, we think we are getting a 3-point discount on this line.     

Vikings (+3.5) over RAMS

            In Week 1 battles of teams likely to end up in the top 10 of next year’s draft, we’ll take the points.

Browns (+7) over STEELERS

            Ditto.

EAGLES (-10.5) over Jaguars

            Here’s your suicide pool pick.

Raiders (+5.5) over JETS

            Here’s another bottom feeder match-up.

RAVENS (-1) over Bengals

            We’re predicting Andy Dalton lays a Week 1 stinker.

BEARS (-7) over Bills

            Here’s your second suicide pool pick.

TEXANS (-3) over Redskins

            Houston’s defense is a tough draw for RGIII.

CHIEFS (-3.5) over Titans

            Kansas City is due for regression, but Tennessee isn’t equipped to take advantage of it.

DOLPHINS (+4.5) over Patriots

            For my money, the hardest line to pick of the week. We’re guessing New England wins by a field goal.

BUCCANEERS (-3) over Panthers

            Too many red flags with the Panthers for us to take them on the road.

49ers (-4) over COWBOYS

            I don’t care how many more 49ers get arrested before kickoff tomorrow. They are still going to cut through the Cowboys’ defense like Swiss cheese.

BRONCOS (-8) over Colts

            Denver is going to make an example out of the Colts in this one.

LIONS (-6.5) over Giants

            At first glance this line feels high, but when one takes stock of the performance of the Giants offense last year and this pre-season, it’s warranted.

Chargers (+3) over CARDINALS

            This game will be the litmus test for whether or not the NFC is significantly better than the AFC this year.

Thursday Pick = 1-0

2014 AFC South Preview

4. Jacksonville Jaguars
2013 Record = 4-12, Third in AFC South, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = @ Eagles, @ Redskins, Colts, @ Chargers, Steelers, @ Titans, Browns, Dolphins, @ Bengals, Cowboys (London), BYE, @ Colts, Giants, Texans, @ Ravens, Titans, @ Texans

Blue Chippers = None

High Quality Players = None
Solid Contributors = WR Cecil Shorts, DE Red Bryant, DE Chris Clemons, CB Alan Ball, CB Will Blackmon
Impact Rookies = QB Blake Bortles (1-3, UCF), WR Marqise Lee (2-39, USC)

Good News = Jacksonville mercifully put an end to the Blaine Gabbert era.

Bad News = They are the Philadelphia 76ers of the NFL.

Outlook = The bar has been set so low over the past few years that merely being competitive in 75% of their games should be a reasonable goal in 2014. Jacksonville did finish 4-4 to finish 2013, so there is some reason for optimism. Barring injury, Blake Bortles should not see the field until midseason, which leaves the offense in the hands of Chad “Garbage Time Yards” Henne. New weapons were brought in which should make life easier for whoever is under center. Toby Gerhart comes to down for his first crack at being a full-time starter, and it’s possible he leads the league in total carries. Rookies Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson should provide support to Cecil Shorts, and eventually develop into a solid duo for Bortles. The play of the offensive line largely hinges on the development of second year pro Luke Joeckel. Joeckel was abysmal at right tackle before breaking his leg last year, and is now making the transition to the left side.

            Defensively, Coach Gus Bradley is in the infant stages of building a defensive unit similar to what he had in Seattle. Red Bryant and Chris Clemons are former Seahawks who will provide leadership on the defensive line. There weren’t many personal moves to bolster the back seven, but with development from their younger players, it’s reasonable to expect some improvement.  
Prediction = They aren’t going to be that good, but I don’t think Jacksonville is worried about that for another year. 4-12





3. Tennessee Titans

2013 Record = 7-9, Second in AFC South, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = @ Chiefs, Cowboys, @ Bengals, @ Colts, Browns, Jaguars, @ Redskins, Texans, BYE, @ Ravens, Steelers, @ Eagles, @ Texans, Giants, Jets, @ Jaguars, Colts

Blue Chippers = None

High Quality Players = WR Kendall Wright, LT Michael Roos, DT Jurrell Casey
Solid Contributors = WR Nate Washington, TE Delanie Walker, LG Andy Levitre, DT Sammie Hill, DE/OLB Derrick Morgan, CB Jason McCourty, SS Bernard “Patriot Killer” Pollard
Impact Rookies = RT Taylor Lewan (1-11, Michigan), HB Bishop Sankey (2-54, Washington)

Good News = Tennessee has some sneaky young talent that is ready to blossom.

Bad News = The Madden version of my son can’t play quarterback for them in real life.

Outlook = Tennessee has assembled an exciting group of skill players, but we’re not sure Jake Locker is the guy to take advantage of it. Kendall Wright was a PPR monster, racking up 94 receptions in 2013. He’s not explosive (only two touchdowns), but he moves the chains. Justin Hunter has the skills to bring big plays to the Titans’ passing game, and is a popular choice to breakout this season. Nate Washington is also still around to provide some veteran leadership. The offensive line showed some improvement after major changes last season, as this year that unit should pay major dividends. A jump in production by sophomore Chance Warmack coupled with rookie Taylor Lewan should stabilize the right side of the line. This will go a long way in helping an offense that will not have the services of Chris Johnson. Rookie Bishop Sankey is first in line for carries. Sankey is a good enough receiver to be a three-down back. All of this adds up to the best supporting cast Jake Locker has had in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. He still has first round talent, but needs to stay on the field.

            Other than Locker, the other issue that will hold Tennessee back is their defense switching to a 3-4. Much like Philadelphia last year, the Titans don’t have the ideal players to make this switch. Derrick Morgan, who is a solid 4-3 end, is virtually useless, and it would be wise management to try to trade him before the season. The loss of CB Alterraun Verner is a huge issue, as there will be a massive drop in talent in the secondary.   
Prediction = We’re not buying into the Titans anymore (we learned our lesson last year) until we can see Jake Locker play at least 12 games. 6-10 

2. Houston Texans

2013 Record = 2-14, Last in AFC South, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = Redskins, @ Raiders, @ Giants, Bills, @ Cowboys, Colts, @ Steelers, @ Titans, Eagles, BYE, @ Browns, Bengals, Titans, @ Jaguars, @ Colts, Ravens, Jaguars

Blue Chippers = WR Andre Johnson, DE J.J. Watt

High Quality Players = None
Solid Contributors = HB Arian Foster, LT Duane Brown, C Chris Myers, RG Brandon Brooks, MLB Brian Cushing, CB Johnathan Joseph, SS Chris Clemons
Impact Rookies = DE/OLB Jadeveon Clowney (1-1, South Carolina), Xavier Su’a-Filo (2-33, UCLA), Louis Nix III (3-83, Notre Dame)

Good News = They can’t be any worse than they were last year.

Bad News = Houston is still a quarterback away from a full reboot.

Outlook = After putting up 22 wins and two AFC South titles in two years, Houston followed that up by starting 2013 2-0, and then promptly losing their final 14 games. Awful quarterback play led to an offense that consistently turned the ball over, and despite finishing seventh in total yards allowed, Houston’s defense generated the fewest turnovers in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. There’s reason for optimism defensively, as the duo of J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney could quickly establish them as a deadly pass rush combination. Third round pick Louis Nix III should also pay immediate dividends as a Vince Wilfork-like run stuffer. Their pass defense was stingy, so with an improved pass rush it’s realistic to think Houston can generate the amount of turnovers they did during their division title years.

            Schaub has been sent packing, but the best Houston could do to replace him was bring in journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick has been a turnover machine his entire NFL career, so hopefully for Houston’s sake Arian Foster is healthy. The less Fitzpatrick has to throw the ball, the better. 
Prediction = They will definitely not be the worst team in football again, but the lack of a franchise quarterback keeps Houston from returning to the playoffs. 8-8

1. Indianapolis Colts

2013 Record = 11-5, AFC South Champions, Lost AFC Divisional Game
2014 Schedule = @ Broncos, Eagles, @ Jaguars, Titans, Ravens, @ Texans, Bengals, @ Steelers, @ Giants, BYE, Patriots, Jaguars, Redskins, @ Browns, Texans, @ Cowboys, @ Titans

Blue Chippers = DE/OLB Robert Mathis

High Quality Players = WR Reggie Wayne, WR T.Y. Hilton, TE Dwayne Allen
Solid Contributors = QB Andrew Luck, WR Hakeem Nicks, LT Anthony Castonzo, RT Gosder Cherilius, DT Arthur Jones, DT Ricky Jean Francois, CB Vontae Davis
Impact Rookies = None

Good News = Trent Richardson can’t play any worse, right?

Bad News = A first place schedule earns them dates with Denver and New England. 

Outlook = You could make a case that no team did more harm to itself over the past 18 months than the Colts did with wild free agency signings and even more ridiculous trades, but Andrew Luck has been able to overcome it. If the Colts can get the pieces in place around him, this will be the team to beat in the AFC for the next decade. Trent Richardson was comically awful after his mid-season arrival last year, but a year ago at this time he was a first round pick in your fantasy draft. The receiving core should be deeper with the signing of Hakeem Nicks (on a one year prove it deal) and the return of Reggie Wayne (tore his ACL last October). Dwayne Allen had his sophomore campaign wiped out by injury, and is also a welcome addition to the passing game. Barring injury, Luck will have the best core of receivers he’s had in his short pro career.

            The Colts employed a “bend-don’t-break” defense last year, ranking in the bottom third in the league in total yards allowed, but in the top third in points against. You could argue that there isn’t a defense in the league that plays as differently depending on whether they are ahead or behind. The first four games will be tough, as star player Robert Mathis will miss the first four weeks due to a drug related suspension.
Prediction = Not being as lucky as they were last year in close games will be balanced out by playing 14 of their games against teams from the three weakest divisions in football. They aren’t elite yet, but another second round playoff appearance is possible. 11-5

Click here to read about the AFC East

Click here to read about the NFC East
Click here to read about the NFC South
Click here to read about the AFC North
Click here to read about the NFC North
Click here to read about the AFC West

Saturday NFL Divisional Round Picks

#6 New Orleans Saints (11-5) @ #1 Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
            I don’t see any reason to believe the Saints will do better in their rematch with Seattle than they did in their regular season meeting. Winning in Philadelphia is one thing, but taking down the top team in the NFC in their building is whole other ball of wax.

SEAHAWKS (-7.5) over Saints

 

#4 Indianapolis Colts (11-5) @ #2 New England Patriots (12-4)

            I believe in Andrew the Giant. I won’t fully predict a Colts upset, but I think Luck keeps it close against a New England team that has made a habit of being locked in tight games all season long.

Colts (+7) over PATRIOTS


Wildcard Round = 1-2-1 (3-1 if you bet the money line)

NFL Wildcard Saturday Picks

#5 Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) @ #4 Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
            The point spread for this game has already moved a half-point in favor of the Chiefs, but No Credentials is going to put a ton of stock into the Week 16 meeting where Indianapolis went into Arrowhead and thoroughly dominated Kansas City. This victory is all the more impressive when you consider that the Chiefs still had a shot at the #1 seed in the AFC at the time. If the Colts keep Jamaal Charles in check, they’ll move on to Round 2.

COLTS (-2) over Chiefs

#6 New Orleans Saints (11-5) @ #3 Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)

            For our money, this is the hardest game of the weekend to figure out. New Orleans has the superior roster, but despite being undefeated at home, they couldn’t wrap up the NFC South due to a dreadful 3-5 mark on the road. The Saints’ troubles on the road are diminished by Philadelphia’s lack of dominance at home, as they were only a .500 team in there own building. Ultimately, we’ll settle on the fact that the NFC East was the second worst division in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, and pick the Saints superior roster to come through in a wild Saturday night game.
 
Saints (+2.5) over EAGLES

NFL Power Rankings and Week 14 NFL Picks

     Our picks last week weren't that great, so we took a solid hour or so to rank every NFL team in an effort to recalibrate for the stretch run. Below the rankings will be our picks.

Rank	Team	Record	PT Diff.	Outlook
1	Seahawks	11-1, 1st in NFC West	+154	With their offensive line back at full power, Seattle is dominant again.
2	Broncos	10-2, 1st in AFC West	+147	Still being pushed by New England, which in the long term will be a positve.
3	Saints	9-3, 1st in NFC South	+82	Won't hold their blowout loss in Seattle against them.
4	Panthers	9-3, 2nd in NFC South	+128	Their defense is talented enough to duplicae the Seahawks game plan against New Orleans.
5	Patriots	9-3, 1st in AFC East	+61	Hard to believe their leaky run defense won't be their undoing in January.
6	49ers	8-4, 2nd in NFC West	+100	Looked like themselves with Crabtree back, but too far out to run down Seattle in the NFC West.
7	Bengals	8-4, 1st in AFC North	+76	If they win out and New England loses a game, Cincinatti will have a first round bye.
8	Chiefs	9-3, 2nd in AFC West	+84	As overvalued as Kansas City was when they were undefeated, they are underrated now.
9	Lions	7-5, 1st in NFC North	+39	Have taken full advantage of their division rivals' injury woes.
10	Cowboys	7-5, 1st in NFC East	+26	Sean Lee will be back, which will stabilize the defense (relatively speaking).
11	Eagles	7-5, 2nd in NFC East	+19	Nick Foles is the real deal, but their defense will eventually undermine them.
12	Cardinals	7-5, 3rd in NFC West	+28	Quietly were one of the best teams in the third semester of the regular season.
13	Colts	8-4, 1st in AFC South	+11	They'll win the AFC South by default, but they won't be favorites against K.C. in Round 1.
14	Ravens	6-6, 2nd in AFC North	+14	Miracously, the defending Super Bowl champs have rallied to take pole position for the 6th seed.
15	Dolphins	6-6, 2nd in AFC East	+4	Sunday's match against Pittsburgh is an elimination game.
16	Bears	6-6, 2nd in NFC North	-9	Josh McCown has done everything he can to keep the Bears afloat while Cutler has been out.
17	Steelers	5-7, 3rd in AFC North	-15	Big Ben needs to run the table for Pittsburgh to have a chance to make the postseason.
18	Rams	5-7, 4th in NFC West	+1	Tons of reason for optimism based on what the Rams will get in next year's draft.
19	Chargers	5-7, 3rd in AFC West	+2	Another team that needs to run the table, but they get Denver and Kansas City in December.
20	Packers	5-6-1, 3rd in NFC North	-11	We're one more loss away from Aaron Rodgers getting shut down for the year.
21	Titans	5-7, 2nd in AFC South	-3	Too much Ryan Fitzpatrick involved for Tennessee to net the 6th seed.
22	Bills	4-8, 4th in AFC East	-40	A bad loss in their "home" game in Toronto has Buffalo looking ahead to 2014.
23	Giants	5-7, 3rd in NFC East	-60	At least they've made a respectable effort after their disastorous start.
24	Buccaneers	3-9, 3rd in NFC South	-68	Advanced metrics did say that Tampa was the best 0-8 team in NFL history.
25	Raiders	4-8, 4th in AFC West	-63	Can't figure out why this team is trying, but good for them.
26	Falcons	3-9, 4th in NFC South	-79	For nothing else, at least Roddy White didn't look washed up last week.
27	Vikings	3-8-1, 4th in NFC North	-77	Is it too early to preorder a Matt Schaub 2014 Vikings jersey?
28	Jaguars	4-9, 3rd in AFC South	-171	The Jags actually outscored opponents by a touchdown over the last five games.
29	Browns	4-8, 4th in AFC North	-66	Josh Gordon is my favorite fantasy football player of all time.
30	Jets	5-7, 3rd in AFC East	-121	I don't see the Jets winning the rest of the season.
31	Redskins	3-9, 4th in NFC East	-93	St. Louis will have a lot of fun with the second overall pick next year.
32	Texans	2-11, 4th in AFC South	-100	This year is a disaster, put Houston will turn it around fast with the #1 overall pick.

Chiefs (-3.5) over REDSKINS

           Washington is a good team to play when you’re trying to get back on track.

Vikings (+7) over RAVENS

            A.P. keeps this close.

PATRIOTS (-12.5) over Browns

            Cleveland has entered full-on tank mode in an effort to secure a top-5 pick.

Raiders (+2.5) over JETS
            New York’s offense has the least talent of any unit in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE.

BENGALS (-6.5) over Colts

            Cincinnati virtually locks up at least a #3 seed (meaning no Kansas City in round 1) with a win.

EAGLES (-3) over Lions

            I think I’m 2-11 picking Eagles’ games this year.

Dolphins (+3.5) over STEELERS

            The extra half point is huge.

BUCCANEERS (-3) over Bills

            Tampa Bay wishes the regular season started in November.

PACKERS (-3.5) over Falcons

            Green Bay has to win eventually without Aaron Rodgers…right?

BRONCOS (-13) over Titans

            R.I.P. the 2013 Tennessee Titans, whose season died when Jake Locker hit I.R.

CARDINALS (-6) over Rams

            St. Louis is much scarier at home than on the road.

CHARGERS (-3.5) over Giants

            San Diego’s season is on life support.

49ERS (-2.5) over Seahawks

            This is the game that will get everyone excited about the 49ers.

Panthers (+3) over SAINTS

            Asking New Orleans to beat Carolina after getting beat on by Seattle six days earlier is a tall order.

Cowboys (-1) over BEARS

            Does Dallas have the discipline to take full advantage of Chicago’s shoddy run defense? We’ll find out.
 

Last Week = 5-10-1 (ouch!)

Season = 93-90-8
Thursday = 1-0