2014 AFC South Preview

4. Jacksonville Jaguars
2013 Record = 4-12, Third in AFC South, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = @ Eagles, @ Redskins, Colts, @ Chargers, Steelers, @ Titans, Browns, Dolphins, @ Bengals, Cowboys (London), BYE, @ Colts, Giants, Texans, @ Ravens, Titans, @ Texans

Blue Chippers = None

High Quality Players = None
Solid Contributors = WR Cecil Shorts, DE Red Bryant, DE Chris Clemons, CB Alan Ball, CB Will Blackmon
Impact Rookies = QB Blake Bortles (1-3, UCF), WR Marqise Lee (2-39, USC)

Good News = Jacksonville mercifully put an end to the Blaine Gabbert era.

Bad News = They are the Philadelphia 76ers of the NFL.

Outlook = The bar has been set so low over the past few years that merely being competitive in 75% of their games should be a reasonable goal in 2014. Jacksonville did finish 4-4 to finish 2013, so there is some reason for optimism. Barring injury, Blake Bortles should not see the field until midseason, which leaves the offense in the hands of Chad “Garbage Time Yards” Henne. New weapons were brought in which should make life easier for whoever is under center. Toby Gerhart comes to down for his first crack at being a full-time starter, and it’s possible he leads the league in total carries. Rookies Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson should provide support to Cecil Shorts, and eventually develop into a solid duo for Bortles. The play of the offensive line largely hinges on the development of second year pro Luke Joeckel. Joeckel was abysmal at right tackle before breaking his leg last year, and is now making the transition to the left side.

            Defensively, Coach Gus Bradley is in the infant stages of building a defensive unit similar to what he had in Seattle. Red Bryant and Chris Clemons are former Seahawks who will provide leadership on the defensive line. There weren’t many personal moves to bolster the back seven, but with development from their younger players, it’s reasonable to expect some improvement.  
Prediction = They aren’t going to be that good, but I don’t think Jacksonville is worried about that for another year. 4-12





3. Tennessee Titans

2013 Record = 7-9, Second in AFC South, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = @ Chiefs, Cowboys, @ Bengals, @ Colts, Browns, Jaguars, @ Redskins, Texans, BYE, @ Ravens, Steelers, @ Eagles, @ Texans, Giants, Jets, @ Jaguars, Colts

Blue Chippers = None

High Quality Players = WR Kendall Wright, LT Michael Roos, DT Jurrell Casey
Solid Contributors = WR Nate Washington, TE Delanie Walker, LG Andy Levitre, DT Sammie Hill, DE/OLB Derrick Morgan, CB Jason McCourty, SS Bernard “Patriot Killer” Pollard
Impact Rookies = RT Taylor Lewan (1-11, Michigan), HB Bishop Sankey (2-54, Washington)

Good News = Tennessee has some sneaky young talent that is ready to blossom.

Bad News = The Madden version of my son can’t play quarterback for them in real life.

Outlook = Tennessee has assembled an exciting group of skill players, but we’re not sure Jake Locker is the guy to take advantage of it. Kendall Wright was a PPR monster, racking up 94 receptions in 2013. He’s not explosive (only two touchdowns), but he moves the chains. Justin Hunter has the skills to bring big plays to the Titans’ passing game, and is a popular choice to breakout this season. Nate Washington is also still around to provide some veteran leadership. The offensive line showed some improvement after major changes last season, as this year that unit should pay major dividends. A jump in production by sophomore Chance Warmack coupled with rookie Taylor Lewan should stabilize the right side of the line. This will go a long way in helping an offense that will not have the services of Chris Johnson. Rookie Bishop Sankey is first in line for carries. Sankey is a good enough receiver to be a three-down back. All of this adds up to the best supporting cast Jake Locker has had in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. He still has first round talent, but needs to stay on the field.

            Other than Locker, the other issue that will hold Tennessee back is their defense switching to a 3-4. Much like Philadelphia last year, the Titans don’t have the ideal players to make this switch. Derrick Morgan, who is a solid 4-3 end, is virtually useless, and it would be wise management to try to trade him before the season. The loss of CB Alterraun Verner is a huge issue, as there will be a massive drop in talent in the secondary.   
Prediction = We’re not buying into the Titans anymore (we learned our lesson last year) until we can see Jake Locker play at least 12 games. 6-10 

2. Houston Texans

2013 Record = 2-14, Last in AFC South, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = Redskins, @ Raiders, @ Giants, Bills, @ Cowboys, Colts, @ Steelers, @ Titans, Eagles, BYE, @ Browns, Bengals, Titans, @ Jaguars, @ Colts, Ravens, Jaguars

Blue Chippers = WR Andre Johnson, DE J.J. Watt

High Quality Players = None
Solid Contributors = HB Arian Foster, LT Duane Brown, C Chris Myers, RG Brandon Brooks, MLB Brian Cushing, CB Johnathan Joseph, SS Chris Clemons
Impact Rookies = DE/OLB Jadeveon Clowney (1-1, South Carolina), Xavier Su’a-Filo (2-33, UCLA), Louis Nix III (3-83, Notre Dame)

Good News = They can’t be any worse than they were last year.

Bad News = Houston is still a quarterback away from a full reboot.

Outlook = After putting up 22 wins and two AFC South titles in two years, Houston followed that up by starting 2013 2-0, and then promptly losing their final 14 games. Awful quarterback play led to an offense that consistently turned the ball over, and despite finishing seventh in total yards allowed, Houston’s defense generated the fewest turnovers in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. There’s reason for optimism defensively, as the duo of J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney could quickly establish them as a deadly pass rush combination. Third round pick Louis Nix III should also pay immediate dividends as a Vince Wilfork-like run stuffer. Their pass defense was stingy, so with an improved pass rush it’s realistic to think Houston can generate the amount of turnovers they did during their division title years.

            Schaub has been sent packing, but the best Houston could do to replace him was bring in journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick has been a turnover machine his entire NFL career, so hopefully for Houston’s sake Arian Foster is healthy. The less Fitzpatrick has to throw the ball, the better. 
Prediction = They will definitely not be the worst team in football again, but the lack of a franchise quarterback keeps Houston from returning to the playoffs. 8-8

1. Indianapolis Colts

2013 Record = 11-5, AFC South Champions, Lost AFC Divisional Game
2014 Schedule = @ Broncos, Eagles, @ Jaguars, Titans, Ravens, @ Texans, Bengals, @ Steelers, @ Giants, BYE, Patriots, Jaguars, Redskins, @ Browns, Texans, @ Cowboys, @ Titans

Blue Chippers = DE/OLB Robert Mathis

High Quality Players = WR Reggie Wayne, WR T.Y. Hilton, TE Dwayne Allen
Solid Contributors = QB Andrew Luck, WR Hakeem Nicks, LT Anthony Castonzo, RT Gosder Cherilius, DT Arthur Jones, DT Ricky Jean Francois, CB Vontae Davis
Impact Rookies = None

Good News = Trent Richardson can’t play any worse, right?

Bad News = A first place schedule earns them dates with Denver and New England. 

Outlook = You could make a case that no team did more harm to itself over the past 18 months than the Colts did with wild free agency signings and even more ridiculous trades, but Andrew Luck has been able to overcome it. If the Colts can get the pieces in place around him, this will be the team to beat in the AFC for the next decade. Trent Richardson was comically awful after his mid-season arrival last year, but a year ago at this time he was a first round pick in your fantasy draft. The receiving core should be deeper with the signing of Hakeem Nicks (on a one year prove it deal) and the return of Reggie Wayne (tore his ACL last October). Dwayne Allen had his sophomore campaign wiped out by injury, and is also a welcome addition to the passing game. Barring injury, Luck will have the best core of receivers he’s had in his short pro career.

            The Colts employed a “bend-don’t-break” defense last year, ranking in the bottom third in the league in total yards allowed, but in the top third in points against. You could argue that there isn’t a defense in the league that plays as differently depending on whether they are ahead or behind. The first four games will be tough, as star player Robert Mathis will miss the first four weeks due to a drug related suspension.
Prediction = Not being as lucky as they were last year in close games will be balanced out by playing 14 of their games against teams from the three weakest divisions in football. They aren’t elite yet, but another second round playoff appearance is possible. 11-5

Click here to read about the AFC East

Click here to read about the NFC East
Click here to read about the NFC South
Click here to read about the AFC North
Click here to read about the NFC North
Click here to read about the AFC West

2014 Fantasy Football Runningback Ranks

            Our second set of fantasy football pre-season ranks takes a look at runningbacks. If you missed our piece on quarterbacks, click here.

 



Tier-1 = Barring Torn ACLs, Sure Things 

L.McCoy, PHI

J.Chaarles, KC

            Both of these players were Tier-2 guys last season, but have established enough consistency to share the top tier going in to 2014. McCoy is our first pick as of right now, as he should see the ball even more with Philly looking to run more without DeSean Jackson. Chaarles does get the nod in PPR leagues, as McCoy will forfeit a few catches to Darren Sproles.

 

Tier-2 = Next Best Things

M.Forte, CHI

E.Lacy, GB

A.Peterson, MIN

            Matt Forte has been so unappreciated for so long that it would only make sense that the one year he is a possible top-5 pick, he would end up blowing his knee out or something. In PPR, you should bump him into the top tier. Eddie Lacy is the best bet to lead the NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE in rushing touchdowns, as he gets plenty of goal-line opportunities in a high-octane offense. The sky is the limit for Lacy if he gets to play his entire sophomore campaign with Aaron Rodgers. Peterson wasn’t bad last season, but his ceiling is lower than the first four backs on this list.

 

Tier-3 = Boom or Bust

M.Ball, DEN

L.Bell, PIT

A.Foster, HOU

D.Martin, TB

A.Morris, WAS

M.Lynch, SEA

G.Bernard, CIN

D.Murray, DAL

Z.Stacy, STL

R.Matthews, SD

            This is where things start to get dicey at runningback, as this eclectic group of runners is filled with both boom and bust potential. This group is so important to fantasy leagues this season that we will cover each back individually.

Montae Ball, Broncos – Based on the opportunity alone, you could make a valid case that Ball should be at the top of the second tier, we’d like to see how he responds to a high volume of work before pushing him into the top-5.

Le’Veon Bell, Steelers – Similar set-up as Ball, but the offense he plays on isn’t quite the same caliber. Pittsburgh has been dying to have a feature back since Willie Parker’s hey-day, so Bell should see plenty of work.

Arian Foster, Texans – A consensus top-5 pick last season, Foster’s season was ravaged by injuries. A bounce back season is certainly possible.

Doug Martin, Buccaneers – See Foster, Arian.

Alfred Morris, Redskins – Of the backs in this group, Morris is the safest pick, but he also has the lowest ceiling as he is virtually non-existent in the passing game.

Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks – Lynch has the most carries in the league over the past three seasons, and coupled with some wacky rumors that he might retire, we’re not buying stock on Beast Mode right now.

Giovanni Bernard, Bengals – With The Firm finally being put out to pasture, Bernard should finally crack 20 touches per game on a consistent basis. He has the highest ceiling of any runningback in Tier-3.

DeMarco Murray, Cowboys – Murray’s been mocked for his lack of durability, but there’s no doubting that when he’s on the field, he’s effective. Despite missing two games last year, Murray still racked up 1,121 yards on the ground and ten total touchdowns, while also averaging an impressive 5.2 yards per carry. The Cowboys commitment to improving the offensive line has benefited him more than anyone else. There’s a chance for elite production here, just make sure you have plenty of back-ups to cover the high probability that he’ll miss games.

Zac Stacy, Rams – Stacy was a workhorse during the second half of the season, and should be given all the carries he can handle. Our only knock on him was his paltry 3.9 yards per carry, and St. Louis’ inability to punch the ball in on the goal line.

Ryan Mathews, Chargers – Mathews created so much ill-will after destroying fantasy teams nationwide in 2012 that a solid 2013 campaign went largely unnoticed. For Mathews to make a run at Tier-2 status, he needs to reestablish himself as a key part of the Chargers passing game. He only recorded 26 receptions last year after tallying 50 in 2011.

            The reason this group is so vital to fantasy leagues this year is simple. Even in a 10-team league, five guys from this group will be drafted as #1 runningbacks, with the other half of the group providing the top group of #2s. Barring having some real luck with lottery tickets later in the draft (more on that later), these players are the least reliable starters you will draft on your team in terms of range of possible production. Whoever navigates Tier-3 the best will probably win your fantasy league this year.

Tier-4 = Lottery Tickets

R.Jennings, NYG

F.Gore, SF

C.Johnson, NYJ

S.Vereen, NE

R.Bush, DET

C.Spiller, BUF

P.Thomas, NO

B.Tate, CLE

K.Moreno, MIA

R.Rice, BAL

T.Gerhart, JAC

B.Sankey, TEN

A.Ellington, ARI

J.Bell, DET

S.Jackson, ATL

S.Ridley, NE

            Tier-4 is a smorgasbord of PPR kings (Vereen, Bush, Ellington, Bell), players in new places (Jennings, Johnson, Tate, Moreno, Gerhart), veterans who could be over the hill (Gore, Jackson, Rice), and guys who don’t have clear roles (Spiller, Thomas, Ellington, Ridley). If I find myself in a position where one of these guys has to be my second starting runningback, it will be imperative for me to draft as many other backs from this tier for insurance. Rashad Jennings is the safest bet to find himself in a consistent workhorse role every week, while Andre Ellington provides the highest ceiling.

Tier-5 = The Scrap Heap 

T.Richardson, IND

M.Jones-Drew, OAK

B.Pierce, BAL

F.Jackson, BUF

D.Williams, CAR

            While Richardson was a complete disaster last season, he’s the only back in this group I’d consider drafting to see if a turn around is possible.

Tier-6 = Handcuffs



D.Sproles, PHI

D.Freeman, ATL

M.Ingram, NO

T.West, CLE

D.Woodhead, SD

A.Brown, HOU

C.Ivory, NYJ

C.Hyde, SF

D.McFadden, OAK

L.Miller, MIA

R.Helu Jr., WAS

J.Hill, CIN

J.Stewart, CAR

S.Greene, TEN

            Once your starting line-up is set, these are the guys you need to target to fill out your bench. Someone from this bottom group is going to establish themselves as a valuable fantasy commodity before the year is out.

Conclusion = Runningback was starting to look more stable going into last season, but thanks to some untimely injuries and Trent Richardson forgetting how to play in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, we’re back to hard choices and big gambles. If you plan on using an early pick on Calvin Johnson, Jimmy Graham, or a quarterback, you really have to do your homework and draft as many lottery tickets as possible. The more backs you get, the more likely you are to have someone that actually delivers. In a perfect world, both of my starting runningbacks would come from one of the top-3 tiers, but unless you are picking in the middle of the first round, that’s going to be very hard to do. Since runningback is the most position on the board, we aren’t posting a value adjusted ranking list like we did for quarterback.

 

 

 

2013 AFC South Preview

          Our third division tour takes us to the AFC South, which if I was lazy I could probably cut and paste last year's preview and pass it off as this years.


4. Jacksonville Jaguars

 

2012 Record = 2-14, fourth in AFC South

2013 Schedule = Chiefs, @ Raiders, @ Seahawks, Colts, @ Rams, @ Broncos, Chargers, 49ers, BYE, @ Titans, Cardinals, @ Texans, @ Browns, Texans, Bills, Titans, @ Colts

Franchise Players = RB Maurice Jones-Drew, LT Eugene Monroe

Supporting Cast = WR Cecil Shorts, WR Justin Blackmon (suspended first four games), TE Mercedes Lewis, C Brad Meester, RG Uche Nwaneri, MLB Paul Posluszny
Notable Rookies = RT Luke Joeckel (Texas A&M, 1-2), SS Jonathan Cyprien (Florida International, 2-33), QB-WR Denard Robinson (Michigan, 5-135)

Offensive Outlook = Mired by the worst quarterbacking situation in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, it’s easy to miss that Jacksonville has legitimate skill position players. Maurice Jones-Drew is the most notable Jaguar, and for the first time, will be able to hit unrestricted free agency after the season (can you say potential fantasy gold in the second or third round?). M.J.D. has the benefit of running behind one of the league’s most underrated offensive lines. Eugene Monroe is a top-10 or 15 left tackle, and second overall pick Luke Joeckel will solidify the right side. Cecil Shorts came out of nowhere to deliver excellent production (regardless of which shitty quarterback was throwing to him) before multiple concussions ended his season early. Justin Blackmon exploded when Chad Henne entered the lineup, but thanks to another bout of immaturity, will miss the first four games of the year. When he returns Jacksonville will have one of the best wide receiver duo in the league. Mercedes Lewis has never duplicated his 2010 season, but is that his fault or the quarterbacks? Ultimately, that’s the restrictor plate (NASCAR term) for the Jaguars offense. Blaine Gabbert has been comically awful, and at times it looks like he’s seeing dead people in the pocket. Chad Henne is capable of moving the offense up and down the field, but is extremely turnover prone. For fantasy purposes, Henne at least would elevate the value of the skill position players, but the new Jaguars management team has to see if there’s anything worth salvaging with Gabbert (he is after all, only 23 years old).  

Defensive Outlook = J.J. Watt had a historic 2012, but it’s still inexcusable that he had a half sack more than the Jacksonville Jaguars did. Paul Posluszny was the only steady performer on a defense that never sniffed the quarterback, couldn’t cover receivers, and was consistently worn down by the run. Jason Babin did provide a spark when he was claimed off waivers four the final four weeks of 2012, and Roy Miller (who was a steady backup for Tampa Bay) is capable of anchoring the middle of the line. Head Coach Gus Bradley, who ran a press coverage scheme as a defensive coordinator in Seattle, will have a hard time implementing the same system in Jacksonville. They spent five draft picks on defensive backs, so look for the Jaguars to have an open competition to see who can handle heavy man-coverage assignments.

Ceiling = 7-9 – It sounds crazy to say there’s a chance that Jacksonville won’t lose double-digit games (mostly because it is), but if you get the combination of a 2011 Ryan Fitzpatrick-esque season by Chad Henne and a massive contract season by Maurice Jones-Drew, it could happen.

Floor = 1-15 – There’s no other team in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE that has a higher probability of only winning one game.
Prediction = 3-13
            The offensive line is good enough that Jacksonville will be able to grind out a couple of wins, but it’s in their best interest not to win too many. Two more years of high draft picks could bring Jacksonville back to a playoff level.
 

3. Indianapolis Colts

 

2012 Record = 11-5, second in AFC South

2013 Schedule = Raiders, Dolphins, @ 49ers, @ Jaguars, Seahawks, @ Chargers, Broncos, BYE, @ Texans, Rams, @ Titans, @ Cardinals, Titans, @ Bengals, Texans, @ Chiefs, Jaguars

Franchise Players = QB Andrew Luck, WR Reggie Wayne

Supporting Cast = RB Vick Ballard, RB Ahmad Bradshaw, WR T.Y. Hilton, TE Coby Fleener, TE Dwayne Allen, LT Anthony Castonzo, MLB Jerrell Freeman, OLB Robert Mathis, CB Vontae Davis, FS Antoine Bethea, SS LaRon Landry
Notable Rookies = DE Bjoern Werner (Florida St., 1-24), LG Hugh Thornton (Illinois, 3-86)

Offensive Outlook = Mostly out of necessity, Andrew Luck got the living shit kicked out of him his first season. The majority of his passes were low percentage, and he was constantly dealing with pressure. Reunited with his offensive coordinator from Stanford, look for a quicker hitting offense that will be much more efficient. Ahmad Bradshaw was brought in late in the off-season, and will form a solid 1-2 punch with Vick Ballard. Reggie Wayne looked much more like he did when he was catching passes from Peyton Manning than he did when he was stuck with Curtis Painter in 2011. He’s still a legitimate #1 receiver who is the focal point of the offense. T.Y. Hilton was a DeSean Jackson-like home run threat that was only limited by faulty hands last season. An improvement in that department might vault him over 1,000 yards. Darrius Heyward-Bey was brought in on a one-year deal, which could pay huge dividends. Escaping the chaos of the Oakland Raiders gives Heyward-Bey a chance to reach his potential. The true Achilles heal of this unit is the offensive line. Anthony Castonzo was their only reliable blocker last season. Rookies Hugh Thornton and Khaled Holmes could be given a chance to start early in their careers. 

Defensive Outlook = You can read any number of Colts related stories on the web right now saying they are candidates for regression, and the defense is the reason why. The Colts were –30 in point differential (which means the 11 wins they netted last season were statistically ridiculous), with the defense consistently getting roasted. Andrew Luck had to pull off seven comeback victories to bail the club out. Indianapolis aggressively spent this off-season to improve their 26^th ranked defense, with LaRon Landry being the biggest catch. Landry played 16 games for the first time in four years, and if healthy, is a game changing player in the secondary. He will form a dynamic safety duo with Antoine Bethea. Vontae Davis was awful initially, but by seasons end looked like the lockdown corner he was in Miami. Indianapolis needs to find someone other than Robert Mathis who can consistently pressure the quarterback. Rookie Bjoern Werner could be that player.

Ceiling = 12-4 – Indianapolis earned a #1 seed in the AFC in Peyton Manning’s second year. Luck could duplicate that feat.

Floor = 3-13 – Luck also could get beat up again thanks to a defense that puts him behind on a consistent basis.
Prediction = 6-10
            The Colts were fun last year, but eventually logic and reason will catch up to them. The offensive line is still one or two pieces away from being reliable, and barring a major improvement by the front seven, the defense will still be suspect. Andrew Luck will have a great season, but we don’t forecast the Colts making a second straight playoff appearance.
 

2. Tennessee Titans

 

2012 Record = 6-10

2013 Schedule = @ Steelers, @ Texans, Chargers, Jets, Chiefs, @ Seahawks, 49ers, BYE, @ Rams, Jaguars, Colts, @ Raiders, @ Colts, @ Broncos, Cardinals, @ Jaguars, Texans

Franchise Players = RB Chris Johnson, LG Andy Levitre

Supporting Cast = QB Jake Locker, WR Kenny Britt, WR Kendall Wright, TE Delanie Walker, LT Michael Roos, C Fernando Velasco, DE Derrick Morgan, OLB Akeem Ayers, CB Jason McCourty, SS Bernard Pollard, SS George Wilson, KR Darius Reynaud
Notable Rookies = RG Chance Warmack (Alabama, 1-10), WR Justin Hunter (Tennessee, 2-34)

Offensive Outlook = For all of the people who threw dirt on him last season, Chris Johnson actually had a pretty decent season. 1243 rushing yards, a 4.5 average per carry, 41 receptions, and seven total touchdowns isn’t bad when you consider how poor the offensive line play for Tennessee was. No one will appreciate the acquisitions of guards Andy Levitre and Chance Warmack more than Johnson. Levitre was dominant for Buffalo, and will fit nicely between returning starters Michael Roos and Fernando Velasco. Some experts believed that Warmack was the best prospect at guard in a quarter century. Tennessee will have tremendous flexibility with two quick-footed pulling guards. Jake Locker is the next one to benefit from the o-line upgrades, as he often reacted poorly when faced with pressure. Locker lost half of the 2012 season to injury, and wasn’t as productive in the games he played after coming back than he was before dislocating his shoulder. This will be the year we find out if Locker is the Titans answer at quarterback. Tennessee has an intriguing core of wide receivers that all have the chance of being productive if given the opportunity. Kenny Britt hasn’t been worth the headaches he causes off the field, but if there was ever a year for him to keep his head on straight, it’s this one (he’s an unrestricted free agent after the season). Kendall Wright tied for the rookie lead in receptions last season, and was surprisingly reliable on third down.

Defensive Outlook = Similar to Indianapolis, the Titans defense was atrocious last season. They surrendered 30+ points in six of their first seven games, and twice had 50+ dropped on them. Expanded blitz packages stopped the bleeding a bit in the second half, but this is still a group with significant holes. Derrick Morgan finally performed well enough to not be considered a bust, but it would be a huge lift for the defense if he could lift his sack totals into the double digits. Akeem Ayers made huge strides in 2012, playing at his best when he was blitzing. The secondary was mostly terrible, but Jason McCourty at least finished the year on a high note. Bernard Pollard is way more effective when he gets to destroy members of the New England Patriots, but unfortunately for the Titans they don’t have to face Tom Brady this year.

Ceiling = 12-4 – Only attainable if the defense maintains it’s second half performance from a year ago.

Floor = 4-12 – The defense could also give up 35 points a game.
Prediction = 9-7
            If I were building an NFL team, after a franchise quarterback, the next thing I would value the most is a dominant offensive line. Tennessee looks to have the makings of that. Expect a big Chris Johnson year, a solid season from Jake Locker, and potentially a wild-card berth for the Titans.
 

1. Houston Texans

 

2012 Record = 12-4, first in AFC South

2013 Schedule = @ Chargers, Titans, @ Ravens, Seahawks, @ 49ers, Rams, @ Chiefs, BYE, Colts, @ Cardinals, Raiders, Jaguars, Patriots, @ Jaguars, @ Colts, Broncos, @ Titans

Franchise Players = RB Arian Foster, WR Andre Johnson, LT Duane Brown, C Chris Myers, DE J.J. Watt, MLB Brian Cushing

Supporting Cast = QB Matt Schaub, TE Owen Daniels, LG Wade Smith, DE Antonio Smith, OLB Brooks Reed, CB Johnathan Joseph, CB Kareem Jackson, FS Ed Reed, SS Danieal Manning
Notable Rookies = WR DeAndre Hopkins (Clemson, 1-27), FS D.J. Swearinger (South Carolina, 2-57)

Offensive Outlook = Houston looked like the most dominant team in the league until the calendar hit December. A blowout loss at New England started a stretch where they lost three of their last four to blow a first round bye in the playoffs, before eventually getting destroyed again by the Patriots in the Divisional Round. Matt Schaub shouldered most of the blame for the late season dive, but poor play from the right side of the offensive line also contributed. Arian Foster produced another double-digit touchdown season, but he suffered an alarming drop in his average yards per carry. If Ben Tate returns to his 2011 form, Houston again will have the benefit of a dynamite one-two punch. Andre Johnson might not have the explosiveness he had five years ago, but he’s still a dominant #1 receiver. Rookie DeAndre Hopkins had an excellent pre-season debut, which gives some hope that they finally will have a legitimate second wide receiver. Owen Daniels is still a reliable third down option, and has shown no signs of slowing down. Duane Brown and Chris Myers anchor one of the league’s best offensive lines. 

Defensive Outlook = It’s hard not to be one of the league’s best defenses when you are getting the production the Texans got out of J.J. Watt last season. 20.5 sacks as a 3-4 defensive end is ridiculous (for those not informed, outside linebackers are usually the top pass rushers in a 3-4. Players playing the position Watt normally lines up at are normally dedicated to stopping the run). He’s a transcendent player that gives Houston defensive coordinator Wade Phillips tons of flexibility. Antonio Smith was the main beneficiary of Watt’s destructiveness, as he rarely if ever saw double teams. The loss of Brian Cushing in Week 5 dramatically reduced the effectiveness of the Texans’ run defense. A return to full health gives Houston the chance to field the top defense in the league. The secondary was solid for the most part, but was exposed when Houston’s pass rush didn’t get to the quarterback (see both games against New England last season). Adding Ed Reed gives the Texans a respected veteran who knows what it takes for a team to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

Ceiling = 14-2 – The defense does have a chance to be vastly superior to any other teams D.

Floor = 8-8 – It would take an epically incompetent Matt Schaub performance, plus an injury or two along the offensive line for the Texans to fall to .500.
Prediction = 10-6
            On paper they are still vastly superior to the rest of the division, but catching the NFC West isn’t the walk in the park it was three years ago. That makes the difference between the Texans having a chance at a first round bye or settling for a third or fourth seed.

Click here to read about the AFC East

Click here to read about the NFC East
Click here to read about the NFC South

Pre-Season Fantasy Football RB Ranks

            Last year runningback was riddled with question marks, but thankfully we have some stability this year. Adrian Peterson has returned to his rightful throne as the consensus #1 pick. Jamaal Charles returned from a torn ACL to run for nearly 1,600 yards on an awful team. C.J. Spiller, Doug Martin, and Alfred Morris all established themselves as legit fantasy studs. There’s a good chance you’ll end up with

Tier 1 – The First Overall Pick

 

1	A.Peterson, Vikings

If you need an explanation for why A.P. is the obvious number one choice in all fantasy leagues, then fantasy football probably isn’t for you. There’s a chance he doesn’t repeat as the top-scoring player in fantasy, but he’s the safest bet to finish in the top 5.

Tier 2 – Safe Bets

 

2	J.Charles, Chiefs
3	A.Foster, Texans
4	C.Spiller, Bills
5	D.Martin, Buccaneers
6	R.Rice, Ravens
7	L.McCoy, Eagles
8	M.Lynch, Seahawks
9	A.Morris, Redskins
10	T.Richardson, Browns

            All nine of these guys should go in the first round of your draft directly after Adrian Peterson comes off the board. You could make a logical argument that Calvin Johnson could come off the board sixth, but as you will see when we get to the fourth tier, not getting an elite runningback in the first round is a risky proposition. For those of you in PPR leagues, downgrade Lynch and Morris. 

Tier 3 – Season Swinging Backs

 

11	M.Jones-Drew, Jaguars
12	M.Forte, Bears
13	S.Ridley, Patriots
14	C.Johnson, Titans
15	S.Jackson, Falcons
16	F.Gore, 49ers

If we were doing this sort of draft preview last season, Adrian Peterson would’ve resided in this tier, so there’s a decent chance that the player that decides 30% of fantasy leagues will come from this group. All of these guys are on average being picked between the second and fourth rounds, and other than Frank Gore, the rest of these guys have potential for big things. Jones-Drew is healthy, and for the first time, will have the chance to leave Jacksonville after this season. Forte has a new offense. Ridley should see a career high in carries with New England’s diminished passing attack. Chris Johnson has the best offensive line he has had since his 2,000-yard season. For the first time, Steven Jackson is on a legitimate NFL offense. 

            The larger question is, when should you take these guys? Unless you’re in a 10-team league where a couple of your buddies take Calvin Johnson and Aaron Rodgers in the first round, you’re not getting two of the top ten runningbacks in your draft (an auction is a different story, but that conversation should be saved for another column). As you’ll see when we get to the next tier, drafting one of these six is your only option if you want to plug and play the same two runningbacks every week. Ultimately, what you want the rest of your lineup to look like will determine if you’re willing to pay the price for a Tier 3 back.

Tier 4 – If One of These Guys is Your Starter, I’m Sorry

 

17	D.McFadden, Raiders
18	D.Murray, Cowboys
19	D.Wilson, Giants
20	D.Sproles, Saints
21	R.Bush, Lioins
22	M.Ball, Broncos
23	L.Bell, Steelers
24	R.Matthews, Chargers

This is why landing one of the top 10 backs is absolutely imperative. Drafting one or two of these guys along with a proven rusher is a decent strategy, but if you punt runningback altogether and are forced to rely on two backs from this group, forget it. This is where you will find the widest range of ceilings and floors in relation to their current draft price (meaning that you will take them in a spot where you could grab a starter at another position, as opposed to taking a runningback in the eleventh round that is a bust, but because you took him late, it doesn’t kill your team). Of this group, Sproles is the safest. In a PPR format, you’re probably bumping him into the middle of the Tier 3 (take advantage of that if you are playing with a bunch of dolts that don’t understand how valuable a runningback who could very easily catch 90 balls is). McFadden, Murray, and Matthews all were late first or early second round picks last year, and went on to murder fantasy teams across the country, but that doesn’t mean they should be ignored this year. Ideally, you’re snagging one of these backs as your third runningback with the hopes of trading him if he starts hot.

Tier 5 – Solid Bye Week Subs

 

25	C.Ivory, Jets
26	V.Ballard, Colts
27	L.Miller, Dolphins
28	B.Green-Ellis, Bengals
29	E.Lacy, Packers
30	M.Ingram, Saints
31	R.Mendenhall, Cardinals
32	I.Pead, Rams

These guys appear to have a direct path to a starting gig, but they’ve either never demonstrated they can handle a starter’s workload or there’s a talented backup threatening to take away carries. I wouldn’t fill comfortable with any of these guys as my second back, but in a pinch Chris Ivory is the clear choice.

Tier 6 – Handcuffs

33	A.Brown, Giants
34	G.Bernard, Bengals
35	B.Pierce, Ravens
36	A.Bradshaw, Colts
37	S.Vereen, Patriots
38	B.Brown, Eagles
39	F.Jackson, Bills
40	J.Stewart, Panthers
41	M.Leshoure, Lions
42	B.Tate, Texans
43	M.Bush, Bears

Everyone in this group would have a clear path to fantasy relevance if an injury or coaching decision altered the depth chart. Players like this are what I try to load up on in a draft, as they present the greatest low risk-high reward option in a draft or auction. Of this group, Bernard and Vereen have the greatest upside. Shane Vereen might emerge as a Darren Sproles type presence if early reports are to be believed.

Tier 7 – Guys so We Get to 50

44	D.Williams, Panthers
45	J.Franklin, Packers
46	Z.Stacy, Rams
47	P.Thomas, Saints
48	D.Richardson, Rams
49	J.Rodgers, Falcons
50	R.Williams, Cardinals

            Other than one of the Rams guys breaking out, the only player I see here with potential value is Ryan Williams.

No Credentials Top-24 Ranks, Cost Adjusted

            Based on the current average draft position in Yahoo leagues, here’s the ranking of which runningbacks I would want the most on my team. Average draft spot is in parenthesis.

A.Peterson, Vikings (1.2)

J.Charles, Chiefs (6.1)

A.Foster, Texans (2.4)

C.Spiller, Bills (6.5)

D.Martin, Buccaneers (3.7)

R.Rice, Ravens (9.6)

L.McCoy, Eagles (10.3)

M.Lynch, Seahawks (7.2)

A.Morris, Redskins (11.9)

T.Richardson, Browns (14.1)

M.Jones-Drew, Jaguars (24.9)

C.Johnson, Titans (33.4)

S.Ridley, Patriots (31.6)

F.Gore, 49ers (37.2)

D.Sproles, Saints (86.2)

S.Jackson, Falcons (23.3)

M.Forte, Bears (20.9)

D.Wilson, Giants (76.4)

D.Murray, Cowboys (59.3)

R.Bush, Lioins (67.3)

D.McFadden, Raiders (57.6)

R.Matthews, Chargers (86.5)

M.Ball, Broncos (75.9)

L.Bell, Steelers (62.3)