10. Another Sprint Cup Race Ruined By Weather The rainout on Sunday made Texas the third weekend
of the year impacted by rain, which is a damn shame, because the racing is as
good as it’s been in well over a decade. At least Joey Logano put on a good show Monday to
secure his first win of the season.
9. Rockies Outfielder Charlie Blackmon Goes Bonkers
Going 6-6
with four doubles and a dinger, Blackmon probably helped 0.0824% of fantasy
teams across the country with his massive stat line on Friday.
8. Chris Johnson Released By Tennessee Titans
To the uninformed NFL fan, it’s hard to believe that CJ2K
is on the scrap heat just five years after setting the record for most total
yards from scrimmage.
7. Connecticut and Notre Dame Will Play For Women’s Title Again At some point, don’t
other colleges have to catch up to these two in recruiting? The women’s pool
does appear to be getting a little deeper, but the sport can really take off
when there are finally some squads capable of taking down the top two programs.
Connecticut is probably going to win by 15 points or more Tuesday night.
6. Derek Jeter Now Eighth On All-Time Hit List Jeter passed TECMO Super Baseball great Paul Molitor
with two singles on Sunday. If he’s healthy for
the majority of the season, there’s a chance he finishes his career sixth on
the all-time hit list.
5. 18-Year Old Chase Elliott Wins First Career Nationwide
Series Race
The son of 1988 Winston Cup Champion Bill Elliott,
Chase took command for good with a power move off turn four on Kevin Harvick.
Between him and Kyle Larson, the future of NASCAR finally looks bright.
4. Timberwolves Knock Off Heat in Double Overtime In what will go down as a disappointing 2013-14
campaign, it was good to see the Timberwolves
finally win a close game on the road. 3. Boston Bruins Clinch Top Seed in Eastern Conference Seeding isn’t as big a deal in the NHL as it is in
other sports, but of all the teams in the East, Boston appears to be the best built for a
deep playoff run. 2. UConn Keeps Slaying Giants, Knocks Off Florida in
Final 4 It looks more and more like the Huskies were undervalued after spending
their first season playing in a conference devastated by the break-up of the
Big East.
1. Aaron Harrison Delivers Another Dagger, Puts Kentucky
Into Championship Game
How many more backbreaking 3s does this guy need to make
before we can get a defender to put a hand in his face? Allowing him to get a
shot off while protecting a 2-point lead was a fatal
error by Wisconsin.
Our third division tour takes us to the AFC South, which if I was lazy I could probably cut and paste last year's preview and pass it off as this years.
Franchise Players = RB Maurice Jones-Drew, LT Eugene
Monroe
Supporting Cast = WR Cecil Shorts, WR Justin Blackmon
(suspended first four games), TE Mercedes Lewis, C Brad Meester, RG Uche
Nwaneri, MLB Paul Posluszny Notable Rookies = RT Luke Joeckel (Texas A&M,
1-2), SS Jonathan Cyprien (Florida International, 2-33), QB-WR Denard Robinson
(Michigan, 5-135)
Offensive Outlook = Mired by the worst quarterbacking
situation in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, it’s easy to miss that Jacksonville
has legitimate skill position players. Maurice Jones-Drew is the most notable
Jaguar, and for the first time, will be able to hit unrestricted free agency
after the season (can you say potential fantasy gold in the second or third
round?). M.J.D. has the benefit of running behind one of the league’s most
underrated offensive lines. Eugene Monroe is a top-10 or 15 left tackle, and
second overall pick Luke Joeckel will solidify the right side. Cecil Shorts
came out of nowhere to deliver excellent production (regardless of which shitty
quarterback was throwing to him) before multiple concussions ended his season
early. Justin Blackmon exploded when Chad Henne entered the lineup, but thanks
to another bout of immaturity, will miss the first four games of the year. When
he returns Jacksonville will have one of the best wide receiver duo in the
league. Mercedes Lewis has never duplicated his 2010 season, but is that his
fault or the quarterbacks? Ultimately, that’s the restrictor plate (NASCAR
term) for the Jaguars offense. Blaine Gabbert has been comically awful, and at
times it looks like he’s seeing dead people in the pocket. Chad Henne is
capable of moving the offense up and down the field, but is extremely turnover
prone. For fantasy purposes, Henne at least would elevate the value of the
skill position players, but the new Jaguars management team has to see if
there’s anything worth salvaging with Gabbert (he is after all, only 23 years old).
Defensive Outlook = J.J. Watt had a historic 2012,
but it’s still inexcusable that he had a half sack more than the Jacksonville
Jaguars did. Paul Posluszny was the only steady performer on a defense that
never sniffed the quarterback, couldn’t cover receivers, and was consistently
worn down by the run. Jason Babin did provide a spark when he was claimed off
waivers four the final four weeks of 2012, and Roy Miller (who was a steady
backup for Tampa Bay) is capable of anchoring the middle of the line. Head
Coach Gus Bradley, who ran a press coverage scheme as a defensive coordinator
in Seattle, will have a hard time implementing the same system in Jacksonville.
They spent five draft picks on defensive backs, so look for the Jaguars to have
an open competition to see who can handle heavy man-coverage assignments.
Ceiling = 7-9– It sounds crazy to say there’s
a chance that Jacksonville won’t lose double-digit games (mostly because it
is), but if you get the combination of a 2011 Ryan Fitzpatrick-esque season by
Chad Henne and a massive contract season by Maurice Jones-Drew, it could
happen.
Floor = 1-15 – There’s no other team in THE NATIONAL
FOOTBALL LEAGUE that has a higher probability of only winning one game. Prediction = 3-13 The
offensive line is good enough that Jacksonville will be able to grind out a
couple of wins, but it’s in their best interest not to win too many. Two more
years of high draft picks could bring Jacksonville back to a playoff level.
Franchise Players = QB Andrew Luck, WR Reggie Wayne
Supporting Cast = RB Vick Ballard, RB Ahmad Bradshaw,
WR T.Y. Hilton, TE Coby Fleener, TE Dwayne Allen, LT Anthony Castonzo, MLB
Jerrell Freeman, OLB Robert Mathis, CB Vontae Davis, FS Antoine Bethea, SS
LaRon Landry Notable Rookies = DE Bjoern Werner (Florida St.,
1-24), LG Hugh Thornton (Illinois, 3-86)
Offensive Outlook = Mostly out of necessity, Andrew
Luck got the living shit kicked out of him his first season. The majority of
his passes were low percentage, and he was constantly dealing with pressure.
Reunited with his offensive coordinator from Stanford, look for a quicker
hitting offense that will be much more efficient. Ahmad Bradshaw was brought in
late in the off-season, and will form a solid 1-2 punch with Vick Ballard.
Reggie Wayne looked much more like he did when he was catching passes from
Peyton Manning than he did when he was stuck with Curtis Painter in 2011. He’s
still a legitimate #1 receiver who is the focal point of the offense. T.Y.
Hilton was a DeSean Jackson-like home run threat that was only limited by
faulty hands last season. An improvement in that department might vault him
over 1,000 yards. Darrius Heyward-Bey was brought in on a one-year deal, which
could pay huge dividends. Escaping the chaos of the Oakland Raiders gives
Heyward-Bey a chance to reach his potential. The true Achilles heal of this
unit is the offensive line. Anthony Castonzo was their only reliable blocker
last season. Rookies Hugh Thornton and Khaled Holmes could be given a chance to
start early in their careers.
Defensive Outlook = You can read any number of Colts
related stories on the web right now saying they are candidates for regression,
and the defense is the reason why. The Colts were –30 in point differential (which
means the 11 wins they netted last season were statistically ridiculous), with
the defense consistently getting roasted. Andrew Luck had to pull off seven
comeback victories to bail the club out. Indianapolis aggressively spent this
off-season to improve their 26th ranked defense, with LaRon Landry
being the biggest catch. Landry played 16 games for the first time in four
years, and if healthy, is a game changing player in the secondary. He will form
a dynamic safety duo with Antoine Bethea. Vontae Davis was awful initially, but
by seasons end looked like the lockdown corner he was in Miami. Indianapolis
needs to find someone other than Robert Mathis who can consistently pressure
the quarterback. Rookie Bjoern Werner could be that player.
Ceiling = 12-4 – Indianapolis earned a #1 seed in the
AFC in Peyton Manning’s second year. Luck could duplicate that feat.
Floor = 3-13 – Luck also could get beat up again
thanks to a defense that puts him behind on a consistent basis. Prediction= 6-10 The Colts were
fun last year, but eventually logic and reason will catch up to them. The
offensive line is still one or two pieces away from being reliable, and barring
a major improvement by the front seven, the defense will still be suspect.
Andrew Luck will have a great season, but we don’t forecast the Colts making a
second straight playoff appearance.
Franchise Players = RB Chris Johnson, LG Andy Levitre
Supporting Cast = QB Jake Locker, WR Kenny Britt, WR
Kendall Wright, TE Delanie Walker, LT Michael Roos, C Fernando Velasco, DE
Derrick Morgan, OLB Akeem Ayers, CB Jason McCourty, SS Bernard Pollard, SS
George Wilson, KR Darius Reynaud Notable Rookies = RG Chance Warmack (Alabama, 1-10),
WR Justin Hunter (Tennessee, 2-34)
Offensive Outlook = For all of the people who threw
dirt on him last season, Chris Johnson actually had a pretty decent season.
1243 rushing yards, a 4.5 average per carry, 41 receptions, and seven total
touchdowns isn’t bad when you consider how poor the offensive line play for
Tennessee was. No one will appreciate the acquisitions of guards Andy Levitre
and Chance Warmack more than Johnson. Levitre was dominant for Buffalo, and
will fit nicely between returning starters Michael Roos and Fernando Velasco.
Some experts believed that Warmack was the best prospect at guard in a quarter
century. Tennessee will have tremendous flexibility with two quick-footed
pulling guards. Jake Locker is the next one to benefit from the o-line
upgrades, as he often reacted poorly when faced with pressure. Locker lost half
of the 2012 season to injury, and wasn’t as productive in the games he played
after coming back than he was before dislocating his shoulder. This will be the
year we find out if Locker is the Titans answer at quarterback. Tennessee has
an intriguing core of wide receivers that all have the chance of being
productive if given the opportunity. Kenny Britt hasn’t been worth the
headaches he causes off the field, but if there was ever a year for him to keep
his head on straight, it’s this one (he’s an unrestricted free agent after the
season). Kendall Wright tied for the rookie lead in receptions last season, and
was surprisingly reliable on third down.
Defensive Outlook = Similar to Indianapolis, the
Titans defense was atrocious last season. They surrendered 30+ points in six of
their first seven games, and twice had 50+ dropped on them. Expanded blitz
packages stopped the bleeding a bit in the second half, but this is still a
group with significant holes. Derrick Morgan finally performed well enough to
not be considered a bust, but it would be a huge lift for the defense if he
could lift his sack totals into the double digits. Akeem Ayers made huge
strides in 2012, playing at his best when he was blitzing. The secondary was
mostly terrible, but Jason McCourty at least finished the year on a high note.
Bernard Pollard is way more effective when he gets to destroy members of the
New England Patriots, but unfortunately for the Titans they don’t have to face
Tom Brady this year.
Ceiling = 12-4– Only attainable if the defense
maintains it’s second half performance from a year ago.
Floor = 4-12 – The defense could also give up 35
points a game. Prediction = 9-7 If I
were building an NFL team, after a franchise quarterback, the next thing I
would value the most is a dominant offensive line. Tennessee looks to have the
makings of that. Expect a big Chris Johnson year, a solid season from Jake
Locker, and potentially a wild-card berth for the Titans.
Franchise Players = RB Arian Foster, WR
Andre Johnson, LT Duane Brown, C Chris Myers, DE J.J. Watt, MLB Brian Cushing
Supporting Cast = QB Matt Schaub, TE Owen Daniels, LG
Wade Smith, DE Antonio Smith, OLB Brooks Reed, CB Johnathan Joseph, CB Kareem
Jackson, FS Ed Reed, SS Danieal Manning Notable Rookies = WR DeAndre Hopkins (Clemson, 1-27),
FS D.J. Swearinger (South Carolina, 2-57)
Offensive Outlook = Houston looked like the most
dominant team in the league until the calendar hit December. A blowout loss at
New England started a stretch where they lost three of their last four to blow
a first round bye in the playoffs, before eventually getting destroyed again by
the Patriots in the Divisional Round. Matt Schaub shouldered most of the blame
for the late season dive, but poor play from the right side of the offensive
line also contributed. Arian Foster produced another double-digit touchdown
season, but he suffered an alarming drop in his average yards per carry. If Ben
Tate returns to his 2011 form, Houston again will have the benefit of a
dynamite one-two punch. Andre Johnson might not have the explosiveness he had
five years ago, but he’s still a dominant #1 receiver. Rookie DeAndre Hopkins
had an excellent pre-season debut, which gives some hope that they finally will
have a legitimate second wide receiver. Owen Daniels is still a reliable third down
option, and has shown no signs of slowing down. Duane Brown and Chris Myers
anchor one of the league’s best offensive lines.
Defensive Outlook = It’s hard not to be one of the
league’s best defenses when you are getting the production the Texans got out
of J.J. Watt last season. 20.5 sacks as a 3-4 defensive end is ridiculous (for
those not informed, outside linebackers are usually the top pass rushers in a
3-4. Players playing the position Watt normally lines up at are normally
dedicated to stopping the run). He’s a transcendent player that gives Houston
defensive coordinator Wade Phillips tons of flexibility. Antonio Smith was the
main beneficiary of Watt’s destructiveness, as he rarely if ever saw double
teams. The loss of Brian Cushing in Week 5 dramatically reduced the
effectiveness of the Texans’ run defense. A return to full health gives Houston
the chance to field the top defense in the league. The secondary was solid for
the most part, but was exposed when Houston’s pass rush didn’t get to the quarterback
(see both games against New England last season). Adding Ed Reed gives the
Texans a respected veteran who knows what it takes for a team to hoist the
Lombardi Trophy.
Ceiling = 14-2– The defense does have a
chance to be vastly superior to any other teams D.
Floor = 8-8 – It would take an epically incompetent
Matt Schaub performance, plus an injury or two along the offensive line for the
Texans to fall to .500. Prediction = 10-6 On paper
they are still vastly superior to the rest of the division, but catching the
NFC West isn’t the walk in the park it was three years ago. That makes the
difference between the Texans having a chance at a first round bye or settling
for a third or fourth seed.
Last year runningback was riddled with question
marks, but thankfully we have some stability this year. Adrian Peterson has
returned to his rightful throne as the consensus #1 pick. Jamaal Charles
returned from a torn ACL to run for nearly 1,600 yards on an awful team. C.J.
Spiller, Doug Martin, and Alfred Morris all established themselves as legit
fantasy studs. There’s a good chance you’ll end up with
Tier 1 – The First Overall Pick
1
A.Peterson, Vikings
If you need an explanation for why
A.P. is the obvious number one choice in all fantasy leagues, then fantasy
football probably isn’t for you. There’s a chance he doesn’t repeat as the
top-scoring player in fantasy, but he’s the safest bet to finish in the top 5.
Tier 2 – Safe Bets
2
J.Charles, Chiefs
3
A.Foster, Texans
4
C.Spiller, Bills
5
D.Martin, Buccaneers
6
R.Rice, Ravens
7
L.McCoy, Eagles
8
M.Lynch, Seahawks
9
A.Morris, Redskins
10
T.Richardson, Browns
All nine of
these guys should go in the first round of your draft directly after Adrian
Peterson comes off the board. You could make a logical argument that Calvin
Johnson could come off the board sixth, but as you will see when we get to the
fourth tier, not getting an elite runningback in the first round is a risky
proposition. For those of you in PPR leagues, downgrade Lynch and Morris.
Tier 3 – Season Swinging Backs
11
M.Jones-Drew, Jaguars
12
M.Forte, Bears
13
S.Ridley, Patriots
14
C.Johnson, Titans
15
S.Jackson, Falcons
16
F.Gore, 49ers
If we were doing this sort of draft
preview last season, Adrian Peterson would’ve resided in this tier, so there’s
a decent chance that the player that decides 30% of fantasy leagues will come
from this group. All of these guys are on average being picked between the
second and fourth rounds, and other than Frank Gore, the rest of these guys
have potential for big things. Jones-Drew is healthy, and for the first time,
will have the chance to leave Jacksonville after this season. Forte has a new
offense. Ridley should see a career high in carries with New England’s
diminished passing attack. Chris Johnson has the best offensive line he has had
since his 2,000-yard season. For the first time, Steven Jackson is on a
legitimate NFL offense.
The larger
question is, when should you take these guys? Unless you’re in a 10-team league
where a couple of your buddies take Calvin Johnson and Aaron Rodgers in the
first round, you’re not getting two of the top ten runningbacks in your draft
(an auction is a different story, but that conversation should be saved for
another column). As you’ll see when we get to the next tier, drafting one of
these six is your only option if you want to plug and play the same two
runningbacks every week. Ultimately, what you want the rest of your lineup to
look like will determine if you’re willing to pay the price for a Tier 3 back.
Tier 4 – If One of These Guys is Your Starter, I’m Sorry
17
D.McFadden, Raiders
18
D.Murray, Cowboys
19
D.Wilson, Giants
20
D.Sproles, Saints
21
R.Bush, Lioins
22
M.Ball, Broncos
23
L.Bell, Steelers
24
R.Matthews, Chargers
This is why landing one of the top
10 backs is absolutely imperative. Drafting one or two of these guys along with
a proven rusher is a decent strategy, but if you punt runningback altogether
and are forced to rely on two backs from this group, forget it. This is where
you will find the widest range of ceilings and floors in relation to their
current draft price (meaning that you will take them in a spot where you could
grab a starter at another position, as opposed to taking a runningback in the
eleventh round that is a bust, but because you took him late, it doesn’t kill
your team). Of this group, Sproles is the safest. In a PPR format, you’re
probably bumping him into the middle of the Tier 3 (take advantage of that if
you are playing with a bunch of dolts that don’t understand how valuable a
runningback who could very easily catch 90 balls is). McFadden, Murray, and
Matthews all were late first or early second round picks last year, and went on
to murder fantasy teams across the country, but that doesn’t mean they should
be ignored this year. Ideally, you’re snagging one of these backs as your third
runningback with the hopes of trading him if he starts hot.
Tier 5 – Solid Bye Week Subs
25
C.Ivory, Jets
26
V.Ballard, Colts
27
L.Miller, Dolphins
28
B.Green-Ellis, Bengals
29
E.Lacy, Packers
30
M.Ingram, Saints
31
R.Mendenhall, Cardinals
32
I.Pead, Rams
These guys appear to have a direct
path to a starting gig, but they’ve either never demonstrated they can handle a
starter’s workload or there’s a talented backup threatening to take away
carries. I wouldn’t fill comfortable with any of these guys as my second back,
but in a pinch Chris Ivory is the clear choice.
Tier 6 – Handcuffs
33
A.Brown, Giants
34
G.Bernard, Bengals
35
B.Pierce, Ravens
36
A.Bradshaw, Colts
37
S.Vereen, Patriots
38
B.Brown, Eagles
39
F.Jackson, Bills
40
J.Stewart, Panthers
41
M.Leshoure, Lions
42
B.Tate, Texans
43
M.Bush, Bears
Everyone in this group would have a
clear path to fantasy relevance if an injury or coaching decision altered the
depth chart. Players like this are what I try to load up on in a draft, as they
present the greatest low risk-high reward option in a draft or auction. Of this
group, Bernard and Vereen have the greatest upside. Shane Vereen might emerge
as a Darren Sproles type presence if early reports are to be believed.
Tier 7 – Guys so We Get to 50
44
D.Williams,
Panthers
45
J.Franklin,
Packers
46
Z.Stacy,
Rams
47
P.Thomas,
Saints
48
D.Richardson,
Rams
49
J.Rodgers,
Falcons
50
R.Williams,
Cardinals
Other than
one of the Rams guys breaking out, the only player I see here with potential
value is Ryan Williams.
No Credentials Top-24 Ranks, Cost Adjusted
Based on
the current average draft position in Yahoo leagues, here’s the ranking of
which runningbacks I would want the most on my team. Average draft spot is in
parenthesis.
Franchise Players = RB Maurice Jones-Drew, DT Tyson
Alualu, LB Paul Posluszny
Key Free Agent Acquisitions = WR Laurent Robinson, CB
Aaron Ross Potential Impact Rookies = WR Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma
State) 1-5, DE Andre Branch (Clemson) 2-6
Outlook = Blaine Gabbert or Chad Henne
will be the starting quarterback, they took a punter in the third round of
the draft, and there's a great chance their best player could hold out for a good portion of the regular season. Maybe we’ll write more about this team when they move to Los
Angeles.
Franchise Players = WR Reggie Wayne, DE Dwight Freeney,
DE Robert Mathis, S Antoine Bethea
Key Free Agent Acquisitions = DT Cory Redding, S Tom
Zhikowski Potential Impact Rookies = Andrew Luck (Stanford) 1-1, TE
Coby Fleener (Stanford) 2-2, TE Dwayne Allen (Clemson) 3-1
Outlook = Has there ever been a more under
the radar number one draft pick than Andrew Luck? Thanks to all the hoopla over
Robert Griffin III, Luck has quietly gone about his business in Indy. His
stellar performance in his first preseason game seemed to remind folks that he,
not Griffin, was the top player selected in the 2012 draft. If he’s anything
close to the “best college prospect since Peyton Manning”, it’s not outrageous
to think that this team can be competitive. Sure the offensive line still
stinks, and the defense is still a work in progress, but there are still
veterans from Manning’s best teams that will not let the team quit on their
young quarterback. Don’t expect a surprising playoff run, but look for the
Colts to begin sowing the seeds for a successful 2014 and beyond.
Ceiling = 8-8
Floor = 4-12 No Credentials Prediction = 6-10
2. Houston Texans
2011 Record = 10-6, First in AFC South, Lost in AFC
Divisional Game 2012 Schedule = MIA, @ JAC, @ DEN, TEN, @ NYJ, GB, BAL,
BYE, BUF, @ CHI, JAC, @ DET, @ TEN, @ NE, IND, MIN, @ IND
Franchise Players = QB Matt Schaub, RB Arian Foster, WR
Andre Johnson, T Duane Brown, DE J.J. Watt, LB Brian Cushing, CB Jonathan
Joseph
Key Free Agent Acquisitions = LB Bradie James, S Alan
Ball Potential Impact Rookies = Whitney Mercilius (Illinois)
1-26
Outlook = Houston overcame a season ending
injury to Matt Schaub and season-long hamstring troubles for Andre Johnson to
win the franchise’s first division title and playoff game. The offensive line
is strong enough that it doesn’t matter whether Arian Foster or Ben Tate is carrying
the ball. With a healthy Johnson (which could be hard to ask for, he’s already
had hamstring troubles in training camp) this offense could return to it’s
2009-10 level of production. My worries aren’t with the Texans offense, but
their defense. Mario Williams left (for a ginormous amount of money) for the
Buffalo Bills, leaving Houston without one of the ten best defensive players in
the league. For Houston’s defense to maintain their high level of play from
last season, J.J. Watt or Brian Cushing needs to fill that void. Color me a
pessimist, but I don’t see that happening.
Franchise Players = QB Jake Locker, RB Chris Johnson, WR
Kenny Britt, T Michael Roos, DE Derrick Morgan, S Michael Griffin
Key Free Agent Acquisitions = G Steven Hutchinson, LB
Kamerion Wimbley Potential Impact Rookies =WR Kendall Wright (Baylor) 1-20
Outlook = Tennessee has more question
marks than your average team. Will Jake Locker take the reigns at QB and raise
the Titans to another level? Will Chris Johnson return to the form he showed
before he was paid a significant amount of money? Will Kenny Britt stay out of
jail? If the answer to all three of these questions is yes, Tennessee could be
a surprisingly tough opponent for teams like New England, Chicago, and Green
Bay. I’ll buy in on Locker and Johnson, which should be enough for Tennessee to
take a weak division.
