Tier 1 – The First Overall Pick
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1
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A.Peterson, Vikings
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If you need an explanation for why
A.P. is the obvious number one choice in all fantasy leagues, then fantasy
football probably isn’t for you. There’s a chance he doesn’t repeat as the
top-scoring player in fantasy, but he’s the safest bet to finish in the top 5.
Tier 2 – Safe Bets
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2
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J.Charles, Chiefs
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3
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A.Foster, Texans
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4
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C.Spiller, Bills
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5
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D.Martin, Buccaneers
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6
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R.Rice, Ravens
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7
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L.McCoy, Eagles
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8
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M.Lynch, Seahawks
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9
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A.Morris, Redskins
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10
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T.Richardson, Browns
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All nine of
these guys should go in the first round of your draft directly after Adrian
Peterson comes off the board. You could make a logical argument that Calvin
Johnson could come off the board sixth, but as you will see when we get to the
fourth tier, not getting an elite runningback in the first round is a risky
proposition. For those of you in PPR leagues, downgrade Lynch and Morris.
Tier 3 – Season Swinging Backs
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11
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M.Jones-Drew, Jaguars
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12
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M.Forte, Bears
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13
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S.Ridley, Patriots
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14
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C.Johnson, Titans
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15
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S.Jackson, Falcons
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16
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F.Gore, 49ers
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If we were doing this sort of draft
preview last season, Adrian Peterson would’ve resided in this tier, so there’s
a decent chance that the player that decides 30% of fantasy leagues will come
from this group. All of these guys are on average being picked between the
second and fourth rounds, and other than Frank Gore, the rest of these guys
have potential for big things. Jones-Drew is healthy, and for the first time,
will have the chance to leave Jacksonville after this season. Forte has a new
offense. Ridley should see a career high in carries with New England’s
diminished passing attack. Chris Johnson has the best offensive line he has had
since his 2,000-yard season. For the first time, Steven Jackson is on a
legitimate NFL offense.
The larger
question is, when should you take these guys? Unless you’re in a 10-team league
where a couple of your buddies take Calvin Johnson and Aaron Rodgers in the
first round, you’re not getting two of the top ten runningbacks in your draft
(an auction is a different story, but that conversation should be saved for
another column). As you’ll see when we get to the next tier, drafting one of
these six is your only option if you want to plug and play the same two
runningbacks every week. Ultimately, what you want the rest of your lineup to
look like will determine if you’re willing to pay the price for a Tier 3 back. Tier 4 – If One of These Guys is Your Starter, I’m Sorry
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17
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D.McFadden, Raiders
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18
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D.Murray, Cowboys
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19
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D.Wilson, Giants
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20
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D.Sproles, Saints
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21
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R.Bush, Lioins
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22
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M.Ball, Broncos
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23
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L.Bell, Steelers
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24
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R.Matthews, Chargers
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This is why landing one of the top
10 backs is absolutely imperative. Drafting one or two of these guys along with
a proven rusher is a decent strategy, but if you punt runningback altogether
and are forced to rely on two backs from this group, forget it. This is where
you will find the widest range of ceilings and floors in relation to their
current draft price (meaning that you will take them in a spot where you could
grab a starter at another position, as opposed to taking a runningback in the
eleventh round that is a bust, but because you took him late, it doesn’t kill
your team). Of this group, Sproles is the safest. In a PPR format, you’re
probably bumping him into the middle of the Tier 3 (take advantage of that if
you are playing with a bunch of dolts that don’t understand how valuable a
runningback who could very easily catch 90 balls is). McFadden, Murray, and
Matthews all were late first or early second round picks last year, and went on
to murder fantasy teams across the country, but that doesn’t mean they should
be ignored this year. Ideally, you’re snagging one of these backs as your third
runningback with the hopes of trading him if he starts hot.
Tier 5 – Solid Bye Week Subs
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25
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C.Ivory, Jets
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26
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V.Ballard, Colts
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27
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L.Miller, Dolphins
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28
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B.Green-Ellis, Bengals
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29
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E.Lacy, Packers
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30
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M.Ingram, Saints
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31
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R.Mendenhall, Cardinals
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32
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I.Pead, Rams
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These guys appear to have a direct
path to a starting gig, but they’ve either never demonstrated they can handle a
starter’s workload or there’s a talented backup threatening to take away
carries. I wouldn’t fill comfortable with any of these guys as my second back,
but in a pinch Chris Ivory is the clear choice.
Tier 6 – Handcuffs
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33
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A.Brown, Giants
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34
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G.Bernard, Bengals
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35
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B.Pierce, Ravens
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36
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A.Bradshaw, Colts
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37
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S.Vereen, Patriots
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38
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B.Brown, Eagles
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39
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F.Jackson, Bills
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40
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J.Stewart, Panthers
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41
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M.Leshoure, Lions
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42
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B.Tate, Texans
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43
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M.Bush, Bears
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Everyone in this group would have a
clear path to fantasy relevance if an injury or coaching decision altered the
depth chart. Players like this are what I try to load up on in a draft, as they
present the greatest low risk-high reward option in a draft or auction. Of this
group, Bernard and Vereen have the greatest upside. Shane Vereen might emerge
as a Darren Sproles type presence if early reports are to be believed.
Tier 7 – Guys so We Get to 50
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44
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D.Williams,
Panthers
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45
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J.Franklin,
Packers
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46
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Z.Stacy,
Rams
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47
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P.Thomas,
Saints
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48
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D.Richardson,
Rams
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49
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J.Rodgers,
Falcons
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50
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R.Williams,
Cardinals
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Other than
one of the Rams guys breaking out, the only player I see here with potential
value is Ryan Williams.
No Credentials Top-24 Ranks, Cost Adjusted
Based on
the current average draft position in Yahoo leagues, here’s the ranking of
which runningbacks I would want the most on my team. Average draft spot is in
parenthesis.
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A.Peterson, Vikings (1.2)
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J.Charles, Chiefs (6.1)
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A.Foster, Texans (2.4)
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C.Spiller, Bills (6.5)
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D.Martin, Buccaneers (3.7)
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R.Rice, Ravens (9.6)
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L.McCoy, Eagles (10.3)
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M.Lynch, Seahawks (7.2)
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A.Morris, Redskins (11.9)
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T.Richardson, Browns (14.1)
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M.Jones-Drew, Jaguars (24.9)
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C.Johnson, Titans (33.4)
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S.Ridley, Patriots (31.6)
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F.Gore, 49ers (37.2)
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D.Sproles, Saints (86.2)
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S.Jackson, Falcons (23.3)
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M.Forte, Bears (20.9)
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D.Wilson, Giants (76.4)
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D.Murray, Cowboys (59.3)
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R.Bush, Lioins (67.3)
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D.McFadden, Raiders (57.6)
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R.Matthews, Chargers (86.5)
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M.Ball, Broncos (75.9)
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L.Bell, Steelers (62.3)
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