2014 AFC North Preview

4. Pittsburgh Steelers

2013 Record = 8-8, Second in AFC North, Missed Playoffs

2014 Schedule = Browns, @ Ravens, @ Panthers, Buccaneers, @ Jaguars, @ Browns, Texans, Colts, Ravens, @ Jets, @ Titans, BYE, Saints, @ Bengals, @ Falcons, Chiefs, Bengals

Blue Chippers = None

High Quality Players = QB Ben Roethlisberger, WR Antonio Brown, SS Troy Polamalu
Solid Contributors = WR Lance Moore, LG Ramon Foster, C Maurkice Pouncey, RG David DeCastro, DE Cameron Heyward, MLB Lawrence Timmons, OLB Jason Worilds
Impact Rookies = MLB Ryan Shazier (1-15, Ohio State), DE Stephon Tuitt (2-46, Notre Dame)

Good News = Pittsburgh has solidified the middle of it’s offensive line.

Bad News = Ike Taylor is beyond washed up.

Outlook = The Steelers are desperately in need of a full roster reboot, but the franchise is still committed to veterans who delivered two Super Bowl titles. With all that has been accomplished by Ben Roethlisberger and Troy Polamalu, you can’t completely fault them. Big Ben was still hit a lot in 2013 (mostly due to miserable play from his offensive tackles), but at least there was some semblance of pass protection for him. A greater commitment to the running game would go a long way in helping, as better balance would keep Roethlisberger upright. Le’Veon Bell will be given the first crack at full-time duty, but free agent acquisition LeGarrette Blount was brought in to push him. Antonio Brown had a massive breakout campaign, and is set up once again for another elite fantasy season. Lance Moore was brought in to fill the chain moving void left by Emmanuel Sanders, and Markus Wheaton will be given every opportunity in his sophomore season to make an impact. A full season from Heath Miller would go a long way in solidifying the Steelers passing game.

            Defensively is where Pittsburgh’s real problems are, as there defense is filled with either players past their primes or youngsters that haven’t reached their potential yet. Troy Polamalu caused a lot of havoc last year with 5 forced fumbles, but his ball-playing skills are virtually non-existent. Pittsburgh treats Ike Taylor like he’s still as shut-down corner, which is either an extreme case of denial or desperation. Jason Worilds and Cameron Heyward both need to raise their games to return the Steelers defense to elite status.

Prediction = This is the year the Steelers wheels really fall off. Look for a full rebuild to begin in 2015. 4-12



3. Cleveland Browns

2013 Record = 4-12, Last in AFC North, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = @ Steelers, Saints, Ravens, BYE, @ Titans, Steelers, @ Jaguars, Raiders, Buccaneers, @ Bengals, Texans, @ Falcons, @ Bills, Colts, Bengals, @ Panthers, @ Ravens

Blue Chippers = WR Josh Gordon (sigh), LT Joe Thomas

High Quality Players = C Alex Mack, MLB Karlos Dansby, CB Joe Haden, SS Donte Whitner
Solid Contributors = TE Jordan Cameron, OLB Jabaal Sheard
Impact Rookies = CB Justin Gilbert (1-8, Oklahoma State), QB Johnny Fucking Football (1-22, Texas A&M), RG Joel Bitonio (2-35, Nevada)

Good News = No other team crushed the draft this year like the Cleveland Browns.

Bad News = Josh Gordon really likes marijuana.

Outlook = Since returning to the NFL in 1999, there hasn’t been a more consistently dysfunctional franchise than the Cleveland Browns (remember the Raiders actually won the AFC in 2002). 2014 is yet another season where the team features a new general manager (no love for Mike Lombardi, even after the Trent Richardson heist), a new Head Coach, and a new Week 1 quarterback. We’d be much higher (pun intended!) on Cleveland’s chances at sleeper status if it wasn’t for Josh Gordon. Gordon tested positive for marijuana, and since he’s a repeat offender, he could miss the entire season (it’s too bad he didn’t just beat the shit out of his fiancée like Ray Rice did, that would’ve only cost him two games. Good work Roger Goodell). Gordon was the MVP of all three of my fantasy teams last year, so No Credentials will dearly miss him. Without Gordon, Cleveland’s wide receivers are a collection of misfit toys. Earl Bennett is a decent fourth receiver, and I think Miles Austin and Nate Burleson already tore their hamstrings. Jordan Cameron will be the most reliable receiver from the tight end position, and it’s not unrealistic for him to be the second most valuable tight end in fantasy behind Jimmy Graham, regardless of which quarterback plays. Brian Hoyer was just named the starter today, but whether due to injury or poor performance, we expect to see Johnny Manziel by Week 10.

            Cleveland was actually a top-10 defensive unit last year, and with the addition of Justin Gilbert and Donte Whitner to the secondary, should continue to be the strength of the team. The secondary has a chance to be among the five best in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. The Browns only face one top-10 offense from 2013 this season, so there is a chance they can steal some low scoring ball games.

Prediction = Barring a miracle Josh Gordon ruling that gets him on the field in October, Cleveland’s offense is going to be a problem, but at least a favorable schedule gives them a chance to sniff .500. 6-10



2. Baltimore Ravens

2013 Record = 8-8, Third in AFC North, Missed Playoffs

2014 Schedule = Bengals, Steelers, @ Browns, Panthers, @ Colts, @ Buccaneers, Falcons, @ Bengals, @ Steelers, Titans, BYE, @ Saints, Chargers, @ Dolphins, Jaguars, @ Texans, Browns

Blue Chippers = None

High Quality Players = RG Marshal Yanda, OLB Elvis Dumervil, CB Lardarius Webb
Solid Contributors = WR Torrey Smith, WR Steve Smith, TE Dennis Pitta, LT Eugene Monroe, DE Terrell Suggs, DT Haloti Ngata
Impact Rookies = MLB C.J. Mosley (1-17, Alabama), DT Timmy Jernigan (2-48, Florida State), FS Terrance Brooks (3-79, Florida State)

Good News = The offensive line can’t play any worse than they did last year.

Bad News = How much more money do they owe Joe Flacco again?

Outlook = It’s hard to believe that a year ago at this team the Ravens were the defending Super Bowl champions after their mediocre 2013 campaign. The offense was abysmal, finishing the year as the fourth worst unit in football. Most of those troubles can be attributed to dreadful offensive line play. Joe Flacco was under constant duress, and whomever he handed the ball off too had a hard time just getting 3 yards per carry. The hiring of Gary Kubiak as offensive coordinator should go along way in addressing those issues, as his zone-blocking scheme was effective in both Denver and Houston for many years. Eugene Monroe also gets a full off-season in the Ravens system after being acquired midseason last year from Jacksonville. Ray Rice will miss the first two games due to suspension, so Bernard Pierce will have a chance to seize a sizable workload. Pierce could be a better fit for Kubiak’s blocking schemes. Torrey Smith averaged over 17 yards per catch last year, and with better pass protection could see an up tick in usage. Steve Smith was brought in for the other starting spot, and Baltimore is looking for the same value out of him that they got from Anquan Boldin during their Super Bowl run. Dennis Pitta is Joe Flacco’s security blanket, and a full season from him would do wonders on third down.

            Even with younger players replacing veterans from the Super Bowl team and a sputtering offense, the defense nearly cracked the top-10 in total yards allowed. For the Ravens to return to the level of play from their hey-day, they will need to generate more negative plays. C.J. Mosley looks like the next in a long line of great Baltimore linebackers. Jimmy Smith was a first round pick in 2011, and this might be his last chance to play to his potential before Baltimore looks for another option at cornerback. Terrance Brooks was a steal in the third round, and projects to be an immediate starter.

Prediction = The offense will improve enough to keep the defense off the field more, and return the Ravens to playoff contention. 9-7

1. Cincinnati Bengals

2013 Record = 11-5, AFC North Champions, Lost AFC Wildcard Game

2014 Schedule = @ Ravens, Falcons, Titans, BYE, @ Patriots, Panthers, @ Colts, Ravens, Jaguars, Browns, @ Saints, @ Texans, @ Buccaneers, Steelers, @ Browns, Broncos, @ Steelers

Blue Chippers = LT Andrew Whitworth, DT Geno Atkins

High Quality Players = WR A.J. Green, OLB Vontaze Burfict
Solid Contributors = HB Giovanni Bernard, WR Marvin Jones, RG Kevin Zeitler, RT Andre Smith, DE Carlos Dunlap, CB Leon Hall, CB Adam Jones, FS Reggie Nelson
Impact Rookies = CB Darqueze Dennard (1-24, Michigan State)

Good News = Giovanni Bernard will be the feature back.

Bad News = Andy Dalton is still slated to be their quarterback if they have to play playoff games.

Outlook = Cincinnati has assembled arguably the deepest all around roster in the NFL, with talent at all the skill positions, a solid  offensive line, and a top-5 defense. Expanded workloads for Giovanni Bernard and Marvin Jones will take some defensive attention away from A.J. Green, and should propel the Bengals to even greater heights. The only question is the red head under center. Andy Dalton has been solid during his first three seasons during the regular season. He’s won 30 games in his pro career, and last year tossed a career high 33 touchdowns. Unfortunately, he’s been so atrocious in his three career playoff games, even Tony Romo said, “Man this guy sucks in January” (EDITORS NOTE: Romo didn’t actually say that, but he should’ve). This year boils down to whether or not Dalton delivers the goods in the playoffs. The roster is vastly superior to the rest of the AFC North, so a division title is virtually assured. Dalton only needs to win one elimination game to quiet critics of the mammoth extension he inked this season.

Prediction = We’re guessing the Bengals win 11 games again before Dalton shits his pants again in the playoffs. Is it too early to wager on this? 11-5 

Click here to read about the AFC East

Click here to read about the NFC East
Click here to read about the AFC South
Click here to read about the NFC South
Click here to read about the NFC North
Click here to read about the AFC West

2013 AFC North Preview

         We turn our attention to the AFC North, a.k.a. the only division that might be worse than the AFC East.

4. Cleveland Browns

 

2012 Record = 5-11, fourth in AFC North

2013 Schedule = Dolphins, @ Ravens, @ Vikings, Bengals, Bills, Lions, @ Packers, @ Chiefs, Ravens, BYE, @ Bengals, Steelers, Jaguars, @ Patriots, Bears, @ Jets, @ Steelers

Franchise Players = RB Trent Richardson, LT Joe Thomas, C Alex Mack, CB Joe Haden

Supporting Cast = WR Josh Gordon, LG Jason Pinkston, DE Ahtyba Rubin, DT Phil Taylor, MLB D’Qwell Jackson, OLB Paul Kruger, SS T.J. Ward
Notable Rookies = OLB Barkevious Mingo (LSU, 1-6), CB Leon McFadden (San Diego St., 3-68)

Offensive Outlook = It feels like a waste of time talking about an offense who’s second year quarterback is 29-years old, but in the interest of maintaining continuity, we’ll do it anyway. Trent Richardson is the centerpiece of the offense, and with Norv Turner taking over as offensive coordinator, Richardson will be sure to see a massive workload. Injuries have already hit the offensive line, so that is a concern for Richardson’s overall production. Cleveland has an interesting (that’s a better adjective than inexperienced) group of receivers that bring different skill sets to the table. Josh Gordon established himself as a quality deep threat, and is the clear #1 receiver. Greg Little has shown flashes as a third down target, but doesn’t utilize his size enough in the red zone. Davone Bess was acquired in a trade with Miami and figures to be heavily targeted on third down. Travis Benjamin is another speedy receiver who can work out of the slot, and tight end Jordan Cameron is a deep fantasy sleeper. An average quarterback could utilize all of these weapons, but unfortunately Brandon Weeden is still on top of the depth chart. Weeden. Weeden has a big arm, but isn’t effective enough when he’s forced to his second or third read.
Defensive Outlook = Cleveland’s run defense was solid, but it’s secondary play was abysmal. Part of their issues have to do with Joe Haden missing five games last season (four of them because of a suspension). Haden has the skills to be a top-5 corner in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, but needs to make more plays. Paul Kruger (the leader in sacks for the Super Bowl champions last year) and rookie Barkevious Mingo have been brought in to bolster a pass rush that was virtually non-existent last year. Upping the quarterback pressure will go along way in improving the pass defense. 

Ceiling = 7-9 

Floor = 2-14
Prediction = 4-12
            Cleveland has assembled some nice young pieces, but until it has a solid quarterback prospect in the fold, there’s littler reason for optimism.
 

3. Pittsburgh Steelers

 

2012 Record = 8-8, third in AFC North

2013 Schedule = Titans, @ Bengals, Bears, @ Vikings, BYE, @ Jets, Ravens, @ Raiders, @ Patriots, Bills, Lions, @ Browns, @ Ravens, Dolphins, Bengals, @ Packers, Browns

Franchise Players = QB Ben Roethlisberger, C Maurkice Pouncey, SS Troy Polamalu

Supporting Cast = WR Antonio Brown, TE Heath Miller (on PUP list through Week 6), DE Brett Keisel, MLB Lawrence Timmons, MLB Larry Foote, OLD LaMarr Woodley, OLB Jason Worilds, CB Ike Taylor, FS Ryan Clark
Notable Rookies = OLB Jarvis Jones (Georgia, 1-17), RB Le’Veon Bell (Michigan St., 2-48), WR Markus Wheaton (Oregon St., 3-79), QB Landry Jones (Oklahoma, 4-115)

Offensive Outlook = On paper, Pittsburgh suffered the biggest free agent defection of the off-season with the loss of Mike Wallace. He was a field stretching threat that demanded attention on every snap. However, the Steelers do have some players with the potential to at least partially fill the void. Antonio Brown dealt with nagging injuries throughout the 2012 season, but a return to health could lead to Reggie Wayne like production for him. Emmanuel Sanders is slated to get the first crack to fill the deep threat role, but he hasn’t demonstrated in the past that he’s capable of doing it. Pittsburgh might eventually turn to third round pick Markus Wheaton, who on paper looks like a Mike Wallace clone. Pittsburgh’s running game was a mess that season, but it was hard to pinpoint if that had to with the runningbacks, the offensive line, or both groups. Second rounder Le’Veon Bell had a leg up to get the starting tailback gig, and he would’ve represented a massive upgrade over Jonathan Dwyer. Unfortunately, he’s now out for six to eight weeks. David DeCastro, last year’s first round pick, looks to rebound from a 2012 that was cut way to short by injury. He has the potential to form one of the best interior line duos with center Maurkice Pouncey. All of these adjustments will ultimately impact the effectiveness of Ben Roethlisberger. It’s unclear how much more of a beating Big Ben can take, so improved offensive line play is paramount to Pittsburgh’s chances of making the playoffs.

Defensive Outlook = Pittsburgh led the league in total defense last year, only allowing 275.8 yards per game. Unfortunately, the Steelers were unable to force turnovers. For the defense to return to the level of its last Super Bowl year in 2008-09, they will need to create game changing plays. The linebacking core is still the strength of the team, with arguably as much depth as any other team. LaMarr Woodley, Jason Worilds, and Jarvis Jones are three dynamic outside linebackers that can create havoc for opposing quarterbacks. If Cortez Allen continues to make strides, Pittsburgh will have the best cornerback duo in the division. They already have the best safety duo, even with Troy Polamalu losing a step. The biggest question mark for the Steelers defense is nose tackle. Casey Hampton has manned that position for years, but this year he will be replaced by Steve McClendon. McClendon doesn’t have the size that is normally required for a 3-4 end, so hopefully for Pittsburgh fans he’s the second coming of Jay Ratliff.

Ceiling = 12-4

Floor = 5-11
Prediction = 7-9
            Pittsburgh is in a state of transition, so it’s reasonable to expect growing pains. Look for another mediocre season before a return to Super Bowl contention in 2014.
 

2. Baltimore Ravens

 

2012 Record = 10-6, first in AFC North

2013 Schedule = @ Broncos, Browns, Texans, @ Bills, @ Dolphins, Packers, @ Steelers, BYE, @ Browns, Bengals, @ Bears, Jets, Steelers, Vikings, @ Lions, Patriots, @ Bengals

Franchise Players = QB Joe Flacco, RB Ray Rice, RG Marshal Yanda, DE Haloti Ngata, OLB Terrell Suggs

Supporting Cast = WR Torrey Smith, WR/KR Jacoby Jones, TE Dennis Pitta (Out for the season with a hip injury), RT Michael Oher, OLB Elvis Dumervil, CB Lardarius Webb, K Justin Tucker
Notable Rookies = SS Matt Elam (Florida, 1-32), OLB Arthur Brown (Kansas St., 2-56)

Offensive Outlook = It’s hard to remember a defending Super Bowl champion that lost so many key players, but at least offensively the most important ones return. Joe Flacco played like a Greek God of quarterbacking last postseason, but it’s hard to forecast that effort continuing into the regular season. He’s solid, but the offense is at its best when it’s centered on Ray Rice. Rice is still a dynamic player (view his epic fourth and 28 conversion last year against San Diego as proof) that can carry an offense. Bernard Pierce made great impressions in a reserve role, and could be in line for increased carries. With the losses of Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta, Torrey Smith will have to shoulder a heavier workload. He’s an elite route runner, which gives him a chance to transition from deep threat to primary receiver. Who ends up getting receptions other than Ray Rice or Smith is anyone’s guess.

Defensive Outlook = When’s the last time a defense lost two first ballot Hall of Famers in the same off-season? Sure Ray Lewis would probably have been suspended for steroids probably have lost a step if he came back, and Ed Reed has lost some of his range, but these were both emotional leaders of the Ravens defense for a long time. Add in the losses of Paul Kruger and Dannell Ellerbe, and you appear to have a dramatic drop in talent on the Ravens defense. Fortunately, the cupboard isn’t bare. Terrell Suggs should be back close to full strength, and Chris Canty and Marcus Spears have been added to bolster the run defense. Terrance Cody and Haloti Ngata are also still in the fold. Elvis Dumervil has been added and will fill the void left by Kruger. He’s a superior pass rusher, but isn’t the same all around defender. Jameel McClain will start in place of Ray Lewis. Physically there won’t be a drop off (throw out the deer antler fueled playoff run for Lewis), but it’ll hard to quantify what the drop off in leadership will do to the defense. Lardarius Webb will make a comeback from a torn ACL, which will give Baltimore a shutdown corner.

Ceiling = 13-3

Floor = 6-10
Prediction = 9-7
            It would be easy to predict a significant drop-off because of the players who won’t be returning, and just as easy to predict another Super Bowl contending run because they are the Ravens and that’s what they do. We’ll predict that they’ll scuffle a bit early before rounding into form by December.      
 

1. Cincinnati Bengals

 

2012 Record = 10-6, second in AFC North 

2013 Schedule = @ Bears, Steelers, Packers, @ Browns, Patriots, @ Bills, @ Lions, Jets, @ Dolphins, @ Ravens, Browns, BYE, @ Chargers, Colts, @ Steelers, Vikings, Ravens

Franchise Players = WR A.J. Green, LT Andrew Whitworth, DT Geno Atkins

Supporting Cast = QB Andy Dalton, RB Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis, TE Jermaine Gresham, RG Kevin Zeitler, DT Domata Peko, DE Michael Johnson, MLB Rey Maualuga, OLB James Harrison, OLB Vontaze Burfict, CB Leon Hall, FS Reggie Nelson, P Kevin Huber
Notable Rookies = TE Tyler Eifert (Notre Dame, 1-21), RB Giovani Bernard (North Carolina, 2-37), DE Margus Hunt (Southern Methodist, 2-53)

Offensive Outlook = We’re pretty sure the Cincinnati Bengals are the first team since the merger to make the playoffs two straight seasons with a redheaded quarterback. Unfortunately, each playoff appearance ended with a beating in Houston. Andy Dalton has chemistry with A.J. Green (it would be hard for any NFL caliber quarterback to not be successful throwing the ball to him), but he hasn’t been effective enough when he’s forced to his second or third read. Green is a top-5 wide receiver who demands double coverage on every play. The Bengals attempted to ease the pressure on Green by adding Tyler Eifert in the first round. Along with Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati will now have the best tight end duo in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. “The Firm” is still penciled in as the starting runningback, but it will be hard for Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis to not cede carries to talented rookie Giovani Bernard. If Bernard gets enough touches, he’s a solid bet for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Much like the rest of the offense (with the exception of Green), the offensive line is average. 

Defensive Outlook = There weren’t many defenses stronger down the stretch last season than the one employed by Cincinnati. Including their playoff loss to Houston, Cincinnati didn’t allow more than 20 points over their final nine games. Defensive tackle Geno Atkins was at the center of it, generating 12.5 sacks and providing stout run defense. Domata Peko and Michael Johnson were fantastic complimentary pieces to Atkins along the defensive line. Cincinnati struck gold last season with undrafted free agent Vontaze Burfict, who shockingly led the Bengals in tackles a season ago. The secondary will get a boost from having a fully healthy Leon Hall at corner from the start of Week 1. He was recovering from an ACL tear and wasn’t playing up to his usual standards until the final month of the season.

Ceiling = 14-2

Floor = 8-8
Prediction = 11-5
            We’re counting on a breakout from Bernard, and a consistent season of top-5 defense. The Bengals mediocre quarterback won’t bite them in the ass until the playoffs.
 

Click here to read about the AFC East

Click here to read about the AFC South
Click here to read about the NFC East
Click here to read about the NFC South

Pre-Season Fantasy Football RB Ranks

            Last year runningback was riddled with question marks, but thankfully we have some stability this year. Adrian Peterson has returned to his rightful throne as the consensus #1 pick. Jamaal Charles returned from a torn ACL to run for nearly 1,600 yards on an awful team. C.J. Spiller, Doug Martin, and Alfred Morris all established themselves as legit fantasy studs. There’s a good chance you’ll end up with

Tier 1 – The First Overall Pick

 

1	A.Peterson, Vikings

If you need an explanation for why A.P. is the obvious number one choice in all fantasy leagues, then fantasy football probably isn’t for you. There’s a chance he doesn’t repeat as the top-scoring player in fantasy, but he’s the safest bet to finish in the top 5.

Tier 2 – Safe Bets

 

2	J.Charles, Chiefs
3	A.Foster, Texans
4	C.Spiller, Bills
5	D.Martin, Buccaneers
6	R.Rice, Ravens
7	L.McCoy, Eagles
8	M.Lynch, Seahawks
9	A.Morris, Redskins
10	T.Richardson, Browns

            All nine of these guys should go in the first round of your draft directly after Adrian Peterson comes off the board. You could make a logical argument that Calvin Johnson could come off the board sixth, but as you will see when we get to the fourth tier, not getting an elite runningback in the first round is a risky proposition. For those of you in PPR leagues, downgrade Lynch and Morris. 

Tier 3 – Season Swinging Backs

 

11	M.Jones-Drew, Jaguars
12	M.Forte, Bears
13	S.Ridley, Patriots
14	C.Johnson, Titans
15	S.Jackson, Falcons
16	F.Gore, 49ers

If we were doing this sort of draft preview last season, Adrian Peterson would’ve resided in this tier, so there’s a decent chance that the player that decides 30% of fantasy leagues will come from this group. All of these guys are on average being picked between the second and fourth rounds, and other than Frank Gore, the rest of these guys have potential for big things. Jones-Drew is healthy, and for the first time, will have the chance to leave Jacksonville after this season. Forte has a new offense. Ridley should see a career high in carries with New England’s diminished passing attack. Chris Johnson has the best offensive line he has had since his 2,000-yard season. For the first time, Steven Jackson is on a legitimate NFL offense. 

            The larger question is, when should you take these guys? Unless you’re in a 10-team league where a couple of your buddies take Calvin Johnson and Aaron Rodgers in the first round, you’re not getting two of the top ten runningbacks in your draft (an auction is a different story, but that conversation should be saved for another column). As you’ll see when we get to the next tier, drafting one of these six is your only option if you want to plug and play the same two runningbacks every week. Ultimately, what you want the rest of your lineup to look like will determine if you’re willing to pay the price for a Tier 3 back.

Tier 4 – If One of These Guys is Your Starter, I’m Sorry

 

17	D.McFadden, Raiders
18	D.Murray, Cowboys
19	D.Wilson, Giants
20	D.Sproles, Saints
21	R.Bush, Lioins
22	M.Ball, Broncos
23	L.Bell, Steelers
24	R.Matthews, Chargers

This is why landing one of the top 10 backs is absolutely imperative. Drafting one or two of these guys along with a proven rusher is a decent strategy, but if you punt runningback altogether and are forced to rely on two backs from this group, forget it. This is where you will find the widest range of ceilings and floors in relation to their current draft price (meaning that you will take them in a spot where you could grab a starter at another position, as opposed to taking a runningback in the eleventh round that is a bust, but because you took him late, it doesn’t kill your team). Of this group, Sproles is the safest. In a PPR format, you’re probably bumping him into the middle of the Tier 3 (take advantage of that if you are playing with a bunch of dolts that don’t understand how valuable a runningback who could very easily catch 90 balls is). McFadden, Murray, and Matthews all were late first or early second round picks last year, and went on to murder fantasy teams across the country, but that doesn’t mean they should be ignored this year. Ideally, you’re snagging one of these backs as your third runningback with the hopes of trading him if he starts hot.

Tier 5 – Solid Bye Week Subs

 

25	C.Ivory, Jets
26	V.Ballard, Colts
27	L.Miller, Dolphins
28	B.Green-Ellis, Bengals
29	E.Lacy, Packers
30	M.Ingram, Saints
31	R.Mendenhall, Cardinals
32	I.Pead, Rams

These guys appear to have a direct path to a starting gig, but they’ve either never demonstrated they can handle a starter’s workload or there’s a talented backup threatening to take away carries. I wouldn’t fill comfortable with any of these guys as my second back, but in a pinch Chris Ivory is the clear choice.

Tier 6 – Handcuffs

33	A.Brown, Giants
34	G.Bernard, Bengals
35	B.Pierce, Ravens
36	A.Bradshaw, Colts
37	S.Vereen, Patriots
38	B.Brown, Eagles
39	F.Jackson, Bills
40	J.Stewart, Panthers
41	M.Leshoure, Lions
42	B.Tate, Texans
43	M.Bush, Bears

Everyone in this group would have a clear path to fantasy relevance if an injury or coaching decision altered the depth chart. Players like this are what I try to load up on in a draft, as they present the greatest low risk-high reward option in a draft or auction. Of this group, Bernard and Vereen have the greatest upside. Shane Vereen might emerge as a Darren Sproles type presence if early reports are to be believed.

Tier 7 – Guys so We Get to 50

44	D.Williams, Panthers
45	J.Franklin, Packers
46	Z.Stacy, Rams
47	P.Thomas, Saints
48	D.Richardson, Rams
49	J.Rodgers, Falcons
50	R.Williams, Cardinals

            Other than one of the Rams guys breaking out, the only player I see here with potential value is Ryan Williams.

No Credentials Top-24 Ranks, Cost Adjusted

            Based on the current average draft position in Yahoo leagues, here’s the ranking of which runningbacks I would want the most on my team. Average draft spot is in parenthesis.

A.Peterson, Vikings (1.2)

J.Charles, Chiefs (6.1)

A.Foster, Texans (2.4)

C.Spiller, Bills (6.5)

D.Martin, Buccaneers (3.7)

R.Rice, Ravens (9.6)

L.McCoy, Eagles (10.3)

M.Lynch, Seahawks (7.2)

A.Morris, Redskins (11.9)

T.Richardson, Browns (14.1)

M.Jones-Drew, Jaguars (24.9)

C.Johnson, Titans (33.4)

S.Ridley, Patriots (31.6)

F.Gore, 49ers (37.2)

D.Sproles, Saints (86.2)

S.Jackson, Falcons (23.3)

M.Forte, Bears (20.9)

D.Wilson, Giants (76.4)

D.Murray, Cowboys (59.3)

R.Bush, Lioins (67.3)

D.McFadden, Raiders (57.6)

R.Matthews, Chargers (86.5)

M.Ball, Broncos (75.9)

L.Bell, Steelers (62.3)