2013 AFC North Preview

         We turn our attention to the AFC North, a.k.a. the only division that might be worse than the AFC East.

4. Cleveland Browns

 

2012 Record = 5-11, fourth in AFC North

2013 Schedule = Dolphins, @ Ravens, @ Vikings, Bengals, Bills, Lions, @ Packers, @ Chiefs, Ravens, BYE, @ Bengals, Steelers, Jaguars, @ Patriots, Bears, @ Jets, @ Steelers

Franchise Players = RB Trent Richardson, LT Joe Thomas, C Alex Mack, CB Joe Haden

Supporting Cast = WR Josh Gordon, LG Jason Pinkston, DE Ahtyba Rubin, DT Phil Taylor, MLB D’Qwell Jackson, OLB Paul Kruger, SS T.J. Ward
Notable Rookies = OLB Barkevious Mingo (LSU, 1-6), CB Leon McFadden (San Diego St., 3-68)

Offensive Outlook = It feels like a waste of time talking about an offense who’s second year quarterback is 29-years old, but in the interest of maintaining continuity, we’ll do it anyway. Trent Richardson is the centerpiece of the offense, and with Norv Turner taking over as offensive coordinator, Richardson will be sure to see a massive workload. Injuries have already hit the offensive line, so that is a concern for Richardson’s overall production. Cleveland has an interesting (that’s a better adjective than inexperienced) group of receivers that bring different skill sets to the table. Josh Gordon established himself as a quality deep threat, and is the clear #1 receiver. Greg Little has shown flashes as a third down target, but doesn’t utilize his size enough in the red zone. Davone Bess was acquired in a trade with Miami and figures to be heavily targeted on third down. Travis Benjamin is another speedy receiver who can work out of the slot, and tight end Jordan Cameron is a deep fantasy sleeper. An average quarterback could utilize all of these weapons, but unfortunately Brandon Weeden is still on top of the depth chart. Weeden. Weeden has a big arm, but isn’t effective enough when he’s forced to his second or third read.
Defensive Outlook = Cleveland’s run defense was solid, but it’s secondary play was abysmal. Part of their issues have to do with Joe Haden missing five games last season (four of them because of a suspension). Haden has the skills to be a top-5 corner in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, but needs to make more plays. Paul Kruger (the leader in sacks for the Super Bowl champions last year) and rookie Barkevious Mingo have been brought in to bolster a pass rush that was virtually non-existent last year. Upping the quarterback pressure will go along way in improving the pass defense. 

Ceiling = 7-9 

Floor = 2-14
Prediction = 4-12
            Cleveland has assembled some nice young pieces, but until it has a solid quarterback prospect in the fold, there’s littler reason for optimism.
 

3. Pittsburgh Steelers

 

2012 Record = 8-8, third in AFC North

2013 Schedule = Titans, @ Bengals, Bears, @ Vikings, BYE, @ Jets, Ravens, @ Raiders, @ Patriots, Bills, Lions, @ Browns, @ Ravens, Dolphins, Bengals, @ Packers, Browns

Franchise Players = QB Ben Roethlisberger, C Maurkice Pouncey, SS Troy Polamalu

Supporting Cast = WR Antonio Brown, TE Heath Miller (on PUP list through Week 6), DE Brett Keisel, MLB Lawrence Timmons, MLB Larry Foote, OLD LaMarr Woodley, OLB Jason Worilds, CB Ike Taylor, FS Ryan Clark
Notable Rookies = OLB Jarvis Jones (Georgia, 1-17), RB Le’Veon Bell (Michigan St., 2-48), WR Markus Wheaton (Oregon St., 3-79), QB Landry Jones (Oklahoma, 4-115)

Offensive Outlook = On paper, Pittsburgh suffered the biggest free agent defection of the off-season with the loss of Mike Wallace. He was a field stretching threat that demanded attention on every snap. However, the Steelers do have some players with the potential to at least partially fill the void. Antonio Brown dealt with nagging injuries throughout the 2012 season, but a return to health could lead to Reggie Wayne like production for him. Emmanuel Sanders is slated to get the first crack to fill the deep threat role, but he hasn’t demonstrated in the past that he’s capable of doing it. Pittsburgh might eventually turn to third round pick Markus Wheaton, who on paper looks like a Mike Wallace clone. Pittsburgh’s running game was a mess that season, but it was hard to pinpoint if that had to with the runningbacks, the offensive line, or both groups. Second rounder Le’Veon Bell had a leg up to get the starting tailback gig, and he would’ve represented a massive upgrade over Jonathan Dwyer. Unfortunately, he’s now out for six to eight weeks. David DeCastro, last year’s first round pick, looks to rebound from a 2012 that was cut way to short by injury. He has the potential to form one of the best interior line duos with center Maurkice Pouncey. All of these adjustments will ultimately impact the effectiveness of Ben Roethlisberger. It’s unclear how much more of a beating Big Ben can take, so improved offensive line play is paramount to Pittsburgh’s chances of making the playoffs.

Defensive Outlook = Pittsburgh led the league in total defense last year, only allowing 275.8 yards per game. Unfortunately, the Steelers were unable to force turnovers. For the defense to return to the level of its last Super Bowl year in 2008-09, they will need to create game changing plays. The linebacking core is still the strength of the team, with arguably as much depth as any other team. LaMarr Woodley, Jason Worilds, and Jarvis Jones are three dynamic outside linebackers that can create havoc for opposing quarterbacks. If Cortez Allen continues to make strides, Pittsburgh will have the best cornerback duo in the division. They already have the best safety duo, even with Troy Polamalu losing a step. The biggest question mark for the Steelers defense is nose tackle. Casey Hampton has manned that position for years, but this year he will be replaced by Steve McClendon. McClendon doesn’t have the size that is normally required for a 3-4 end, so hopefully for Pittsburgh fans he’s the second coming of Jay Ratliff.

Ceiling = 12-4

Floor = 5-11
Prediction = 7-9
            Pittsburgh is in a state of transition, so it’s reasonable to expect growing pains. Look for another mediocre season before a return to Super Bowl contention in 2014.
 

2. Baltimore Ravens

 

2012 Record = 10-6, first in AFC North

2013 Schedule = @ Broncos, Browns, Texans, @ Bills, @ Dolphins, Packers, @ Steelers, BYE, @ Browns, Bengals, @ Bears, Jets, Steelers, Vikings, @ Lions, Patriots, @ Bengals

Franchise Players = QB Joe Flacco, RB Ray Rice, RG Marshal Yanda, DE Haloti Ngata, OLB Terrell Suggs

Supporting Cast = WR Torrey Smith, WR/KR Jacoby Jones, TE Dennis Pitta (Out for the season with a hip injury), RT Michael Oher, OLB Elvis Dumervil, CB Lardarius Webb, K Justin Tucker
Notable Rookies = SS Matt Elam (Florida, 1-32), OLB Arthur Brown (Kansas St., 2-56)

Offensive Outlook = It’s hard to remember a defending Super Bowl champion that lost so many key players, but at least offensively the most important ones return. Joe Flacco played like a Greek God of quarterbacking last postseason, but it’s hard to forecast that effort continuing into the regular season. He’s solid, but the offense is at its best when it’s centered on Ray Rice. Rice is still a dynamic player (view his epic fourth and 28 conversion last year against San Diego as proof) that can carry an offense. Bernard Pierce made great impressions in a reserve role, and could be in line for increased carries. With the losses of Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta, Torrey Smith will have to shoulder a heavier workload. He’s an elite route runner, which gives him a chance to transition from deep threat to primary receiver. Who ends up getting receptions other than Ray Rice or Smith is anyone’s guess.

Defensive Outlook = When’s the last time a defense lost two first ballot Hall of Famers in the same off-season? Sure Ray Lewis would probably have been suspended for steroids probably have lost a step if he came back, and Ed Reed has lost some of his range, but these were both emotional leaders of the Ravens defense for a long time. Add in the losses of Paul Kruger and Dannell Ellerbe, and you appear to have a dramatic drop in talent on the Ravens defense. Fortunately, the cupboard isn’t bare. Terrell Suggs should be back close to full strength, and Chris Canty and Marcus Spears have been added to bolster the run defense. Terrance Cody and Haloti Ngata are also still in the fold. Elvis Dumervil has been added and will fill the void left by Kruger. He’s a superior pass rusher, but isn’t the same all around defender. Jameel McClain will start in place of Ray Lewis. Physically there won’t be a drop off (throw out the deer antler fueled playoff run for Lewis), but it’ll hard to quantify what the drop off in leadership will do to the defense. Lardarius Webb will make a comeback from a torn ACL, which will give Baltimore a shutdown corner.

Ceiling = 13-3

Floor = 6-10
Prediction = 9-7
            It would be easy to predict a significant drop-off because of the players who won’t be returning, and just as easy to predict another Super Bowl contending run because they are the Ravens and that’s what they do. We’ll predict that they’ll scuffle a bit early before rounding into form by December.      
 

1. Cincinnati Bengals

 

2012 Record = 10-6, second in AFC North 

2013 Schedule = @ Bears, Steelers, Packers, @ Browns, Patriots, @ Bills, @ Lions, Jets, @ Dolphins, @ Ravens, Browns, BYE, @ Chargers, Colts, @ Steelers, Vikings, Ravens

Franchise Players = WR A.J. Green, LT Andrew Whitworth, DT Geno Atkins

Supporting Cast = QB Andy Dalton, RB Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis, TE Jermaine Gresham, RG Kevin Zeitler, DT Domata Peko, DE Michael Johnson, MLB Rey Maualuga, OLB James Harrison, OLB Vontaze Burfict, CB Leon Hall, FS Reggie Nelson, P Kevin Huber
Notable Rookies = TE Tyler Eifert (Notre Dame, 1-21), RB Giovani Bernard (North Carolina, 2-37), DE Margus Hunt (Southern Methodist, 2-53)

Offensive Outlook = We’re pretty sure the Cincinnati Bengals are the first team since the merger to make the playoffs two straight seasons with a redheaded quarterback. Unfortunately, each playoff appearance ended with a beating in Houston. Andy Dalton has chemistry with A.J. Green (it would be hard for any NFL caliber quarterback to not be successful throwing the ball to him), but he hasn’t been effective enough when he’s forced to his second or third read. Green is a top-5 wide receiver who demands double coverage on every play. The Bengals attempted to ease the pressure on Green by adding Tyler Eifert in the first round. Along with Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati will now have the best tight end duo in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. “The Firm” is still penciled in as the starting runningback, but it will be hard for Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis to not cede carries to talented rookie Giovani Bernard. If Bernard gets enough touches, he’s a solid bet for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Much like the rest of the offense (with the exception of Green), the offensive line is average. 

Defensive Outlook = There weren’t many defenses stronger down the stretch last season than the one employed by Cincinnati. Including their playoff loss to Houston, Cincinnati didn’t allow more than 20 points over their final nine games. Defensive tackle Geno Atkins was at the center of it, generating 12.5 sacks and providing stout run defense. Domata Peko and Michael Johnson were fantastic complimentary pieces to Atkins along the defensive line. Cincinnati struck gold last season with undrafted free agent Vontaze Burfict, who shockingly led the Bengals in tackles a season ago. The secondary will get a boost from having a fully healthy Leon Hall at corner from the start of Week 1. He was recovering from an ACL tear and wasn’t playing up to his usual standards until the final month of the season.

Ceiling = 14-2

Floor = 8-8
Prediction = 11-5
            We’re counting on a breakout from Bernard, and a consistent season of top-5 defense. The Bengals mediocre quarterback won’t bite them in the ass until the playoffs.
 

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