2015 Fantasy Football Preview: Quarterbacks

            We finish our fantasy football preview with a look at quarterbacks.

Tier-1 = Expensive Investments

 

A.Rodgers, GB

A.Luck, IND

            Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck are really good at quarterbacking in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. We enjoy watching them play. However, the cost to own them in standard drafts or auction is too rich for our blood. Using a second round pick on them means your passing up the chance for a stud runningback or receiver. The only chance I end up with one of these two on any of my rosters on draft day is if they are available in the third round.

Tier-2 = It’s the Water

 

R.Wilson, SEA

B.Roethlisberger, PIT

            Neither Wilson or Roethlisberger got enough credit last year for how productive they were last year for fantasy owners, but they are finally getting the respect the deserve with their current average draft price ending up in the fourth round (third round in 12 team leagues or larger). I’m not likely to choose either of them, unless I’ve already filled my starting RB slots within my first three picks.

Tier-3 = Priced to Sell

 

C.Newton, CAR

M.Ryan, ATL

T.Romo, DAL

            This is the tier I want my QB to come from on draft day. Cam Newton is one of the few quarterbacks who is “receiver proof”, meaning he could lose virtually any piece of his receiving core and still maintain the same value. The loss of Kelvin Benjamin doesn’t scare us at all, and if it means he ends up with 800 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns on the ground, it could boost his fantasy value. Matt Ryan should benefit from an improved offensive line, and should be in the running to lead the league in passing yardage. Tony Romo will have more opportunities to throw with DeMarco Murray in Philly, which isn’t a bad thing considering the talent on the Cowboys offensive line.

Tier-4 = Old Farts

P.Manning, DEN

D.Brees, NO

            Both of these guys are going before the guys in the previous tier in Yahoo drafts, but that doesn’t mean we have to rate them higher here. Both are entering the twilights of their career, and we’d rather bail out a year early than a year late. Brees might have the fewest pass attempts he’s ever had since joining New Orleans in 2006, and his upside is limited even more with Jimmy Graham out of town. Manning still has tons of weapons at his disposal, but Denver also will shift to a more run heavy approach to ensure Peyton is healthy for the playoffs.

Tier-5 = High-End Platoon Partners

E.Manning, NYG

R.Tannehill, MIA

P.Rivers, SD

            By our ranks, these three guys will be starting quarterbacks in 12-team leagues. That’s okay for us, but we’d probably use another pick on a back up to avoid unfavorable match-ups.

Tier-6 = Deflator!

T.Brady, NE

            It’s two weeks before opening night, and incredibly we still don’t have any idea what Brady’s final punishment will be (good job by you Goodell!). Even if Brady were to start Week 1, there are reasons to downgrade him in fantasy leagues. We’ll use snazzy bullet points.

-         Ryan Tannehill scored more fantasy points last year than Tom Brady.

-         Seriously, Ryan Tannehill, the guy that couldn’t even complete 25% of his passes that traveled more than 20 yards in the air last year.

-         With apologies to Julian Edelman, there still isn’t an elite wide receiver on the Patriots roster.

-         We covered it during our Tight End preview, but it bears repeating…do you like Rob Gronkowski’s chances of staying healthy for a second straight season?

-         LeGarrette Blount is in the fold early this year, which means the Pats could pound the ball on the ground even more this season.

For all those reasons, we’ll probably not have Brady on any of our fantasy rosters this year, unless we’ve filled up our starting QB-RB-WR slots and he’s available in the seventh round.

Tier-7 = Low-End (With Upside) Platoon Partners

C.Kaepernick, SF

J.Flacco, BAL

T.Bridgewater, MIN

M.Stafford, DET

            If you’re a crazy person who plays in a league that starts two QBs every week, these guys are the ones I want as my second quarterbacks. We still have a soft spot for Kaepernick, who is a strong bounce back candidate this year. The 49ers defense won’t be nearly as stout as it has been the past few years, meaning Kaepernick will have more opportunities to deliver. In real life we’re not sure Joe Flacco is a great fit for Marc Trestman’s style of offense, but the volume should translate to fantasy stats (it worked for Jay Cutler and Josh McCown!). Teddy Bridgewater is our favorite quarterback out of this group. The Vikings have weapons all over the place, and Bridgewater’s efficiency could deliver a Russell Wilson-esque stat line.

Tier-8 = Bye Week Waiver Wire Dudes

S.Bradford, PHI

N.Foles, STL

R.Griffin III, WAS

C.Palmer, ARI

J.Cutler, CHI

A.Dalton, CIN

            None of these guys should be drafted in standard leagues with 12 teams or less, but this will likely be the best options you have when your starting QB is on a bye. Sam Bradford has the highest ceiling of this tier, but we need to see him get through at least one month of regular season play before we endorse him.

Tier-9 = Young Guns

J.Winson, TB

D.Carr, OAK

B.Bortles, JAC

M.Mariotta, TEN

            Here are our favorite options for those of you playing in keeper or dynasty leagues. We expect all four to have their moments (even Bortles, we like the Jags receiving core), but they will not be start-able on a weekly basis.

Tier-10 = We Only Included Them So We Could Rank 30 QBs

A.Smith, KC

B.Hoyer, HOU

R.Fitzpatrick, NYJ

            If one of these three are starting at any point during your fantasy season, something went terribly wrong.

Week 9 NFL Thoughts

            We’re still banning ourselves from picking all but one game this week, but we’re once again running some extended pre-game thoughts you can chew on before 1pm (Eastern) tomorrow.

This Might Be the Most Crowded “Least Valuable Fantasy Player” Field Ever

            For grins and giggles, let’s run through the candidates as chosen from anyone who on average, was chosen within the first 30 picks in Yahoo fantasy leagues.

1. LeSean McCoy (average pick 1.4) – He’s been healthy, but has only scored one touchdown during his first seven games of the year.
2. Adrian Peterson (3.5) – I don’t think we need to revisit his story again.
3. Eddie Lacy (5.6) – Lacy is on pace for 856 rushing yards, which isn’t what you’re looking for with the fifth pick.
4. Calvin Johnson (6.2) – This one is injury related, but Megatron should have ample opportunity to redeem himself if you were able to keep your team in playoff contention while he’s been absent.
5. A.J. Green (12.5) – Ditto.
6. Montee Ball (12.8) – If you drafted your team the old fashioned way, there’s a good chance Ball was your second round pick. He was mediocre before getting hurt, and now will be second on the depth chart after Ronnie Hillman has taken the Broncos offense to another level.
7. Zac Stacy (28.4) - Drafted near the end of the third round, Stacy can be found on numerous waiver wires across the country. After averaging less than four yards per carry in 2013, we should’ve seen this coming.
8. Doug Martin (30.4) – Widely considered a bounce back candidate this season, Martin has been an unmitigated disaster. Selfishly, he’s my choice for this award as I invested in him in not one, but two leagues this year.

         This debate would be much more fun if Peterson wasn’t involved, as he clearly dominates the category. Regardless, it hasn’t been a fun year of fantasy football.

Cardinals (+2.5) over COWBOYS

            We really should sit Romo for this game to ensure we have him healthy for the stretch run. Arizona runs some of the best blitz packages in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, and we’re asking for a season ending injury if toss Romo out there. I’d play Weeden, pound the rock with Murray, and hope Carson Palmer throws four interceptions.

Manning vs. Brady Never Gets Old

            The modern day equivalent of Bird vs. Magic, it’s important to treat every match-up between these two future Hall of Famers as their last. We like Denver to win Sunday not because of Manning, but because of the Broncos dynamic pass-rush duo. We saw how much trouble the Patriots had with the Chiefs earlier this season, and Denver can offer up a similar threat with Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware.

Ben Roethlisberger is the Most Underrated QB in Football

            Big Ben has two Super Bowl rings, won another AFC title, and just became the first person on planet Earth to throw for over 500 yards in two NFL games. He’s a damn good quarterback who doesn’t get nearly enough credit from anyone except Jim Nantz.

We Don’t Like any Double Digit Underdogs This Week

            If I had to choose one this week, I guess I’d give St. Louis a fighting chance in San Francisco.

I Have No Idea Who is Going to Make the Super Bowl

            Parody has been a big deal for a long time now in the NFL, but I can’t remember a season where there was one dominant team and about ten others with a punchers chance at making a Super Bowl run. The playoffs will truly be a complete crapshoot.

2014 AFC North Preview

4. Pittsburgh Steelers

2013 Record = 8-8, Second in AFC North, Missed Playoffs

2014 Schedule = Browns, @ Ravens, @ Panthers, Buccaneers, @ Jaguars, @ Browns, Texans, Colts, Ravens, @ Jets, @ Titans, BYE, Saints, @ Bengals, @ Falcons, Chiefs, Bengals

Blue Chippers = None

High Quality Players = QB Ben Roethlisberger, WR Antonio Brown, SS Troy Polamalu
Solid Contributors = WR Lance Moore, LG Ramon Foster, C Maurkice Pouncey, RG David DeCastro, DE Cameron Heyward, MLB Lawrence Timmons, OLB Jason Worilds
Impact Rookies = MLB Ryan Shazier (1-15, Ohio State), DE Stephon Tuitt (2-46, Notre Dame)

Good News = Pittsburgh has solidified the middle of it’s offensive line.

Bad News = Ike Taylor is beyond washed up.

Outlook = The Steelers are desperately in need of a full roster reboot, but the franchise is still committed to veterans who delivered two Super Bowl titles. With all that has been accomplished by Ben Roethlisberger and Troy Polamalu, you can’t completely fault them. Big Ben was still hit a lot in 2013 (mostly due to miserable play from his offensive tackles), but at least there was some semblance of pass protection for him. A greater commitment to the running game would go a long way in helping, as better balance would keep Roethlisberger upright. Le’Veon Bell will be given the first crack at full-time duty, but free agent acquisition LeGarrette Blount was brought in to push him. Antonio Brown had a massive breakout campaign, and is set up once again for another elite fantasy season. Lance Moore was brought in to fill the chain moving void left by Emmanuel Sanders, and Markus Wheaton will be given every opportunity in his sophomore season to make an impact. A full season from Heath Miller would go a long way in solidifying the Steelers passing game.

            Defensively is where Pittsburgh’s real problems are, as there defense is filled with either players past their primes or youngsters that haven’t reached their potential yet. Troy Polamalu caused a lot of havoc last year with 5 forced fumbles, but his ball-playing skills are virtually non-existent. Pittsburgh treats Ike Taylor like he’s still as shut-down corner, which is either an extreme case of denial or desperation. Jason Worilds and Cameron Heyward both need to raise their games to return the Steelers defense to elite status.

Prediction = This is the year the Steelers wheels really fall off. Look for a full rebuild to begin in 2015. 4-12



3. Cleveland Browns

2013 Record = 4-12, Last in AFC North, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = @ Steelers, Saints, Ravens, BYE, @ Titans, Steelers, @ Jaguars, Raiders, Buccaneers, @ Bengals, Texans, @ Falcons, @ Bills, Colts, Bengals, @ Panthers, @ Ravens

Blue Chippers = WR Josh Gordon (sigh), LT Joe Thomas

High Quality Players = C Alex Mack, MLB Karlos Dansby, CB Joe Haden, SS Donte Whitner
Solid Contributors = TE Jordan Cameron, OLB Jabaal Sheard
Impact Rookies = CB Justin Gilbert (1-8, Oklahoma State), QB Johnny Fucking Football (1-22, Texas A&M), RG Joel Bitonio (2-35, Nevada)

Good News = No other team crushed the draft this year like the Cleveland Browns.

Bad News = Josh Gordon really likes marijuana.

Outlook = Since returning to the NFL in 1999, there hasn’t been a more consistently dysfunctional franchise than the Cleveland Browns (remember the Raiders actually won the AFC in 2002). 2014 is yet another season where the team features a new general manager (no love for Mike Lombardi, even after the Trent Richardson heist), a new Head Coach, and a new Week 1 quarterback. We’d be much higher (pun intended!) on Cleveland’s chances at sleeper status if it wasn’t for Josh Gordon. Gordon tested positive for marijuana, and since he’s a repeat offender, he could miss the entire season (it’s too bad he didn’t just beat the shit out of his fiancée like Ray Rice did, that would’ve only cost him two games. Good work Roger Goodell). Gordon was the MVP of all three of my fantasy teams last year, so No Credentials will dearly miss him. Without Gordon, Cleveland’s wide receivers are a collection of misfit toys. Earl Bennett is a decent fourth receiver, and I think Miles Austin and Nate Burleson already tore their hamstrings. Jordan Cameron will be the most reliable receiver from the tight end position, and it’s not unrealistic for him to be the second most valuable tight end in fantasy behind Jimmy Graham, regardless of which quarterback plays. Brian Hoyer was just named the starter today, but whether due to injury or poor performance, we expect to see Johnny Manziel by Week 10.

            Cleveland was actually a top-10 defensive unit last year, and with the addition of Justin Gilbert and Donte Whitner to the secondary, should continue to be the strength of the team. The secondary has a chance to be among the five best in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. The Browns only face one top-10 offense from 2013 this season, so there is a chance they can steal some low scoring ball games.

Prediction = Barring a miracle Josh Gordon ruling that gets him on the field in October, Cleveland’s offense is going to be a problem, but at least a favorable schedule gives them a chance to sniff .500. 6-10



2. Baltimore Ravens

2013 Record = 8-8, Third in AFC North, Missed Playoffs

2014 Schedule = Bengals, Steelers, @ Browns, Panthers, @ Colts, @ Buccaneers, Falcons, @ Bengals, @ Steelers, Titans, BYE, @ Saints, Chargers, @ Dolphins, Jaguars, @ Texans, Browns

Blue Chippers = None

High Quality Players = RG Marshal Yanda, OLB Elvis Dumervil, CB Lardarius Webb
Solid Contributors = WR Torrey Smith, WR Steve Smith, TE Dennis Pitta, LT Eugene Monroe, DE Terrell Suggs, DT Haloti Ngata
Impact Rookies = MLB C.J. Mosley (1-17, Alabama), DT Timmy Jernigan (2-48, Florida State), FS Terrance Brooks (3-79, Florida State)

Good News = The offensive line can’t play any worse than they did last year.

Bad News = How much more money do they owe Joe Flacco again?

Outlook = It’s hard to believe that a year ago at this team the Ravens were the defending Super Bowl champions after their mediocre 2013 campaign. The offense was abysmal, finishing the year as the fourth worst unit in football. Most of those troubles can be attributed to dreadful offensive line play. Joe Flacco was under constant duress, and whomever he handed the ball off too had a hard time just getting 3 yards per carry. The hiring of Gary Kubiak as offensive coordinator should go along way in addressing those issues, as his zone-blocking scheme was effective in both Denver and Houston for many years. Eugene Monroe also gets a full off-season in the Ravens system after being acquired midseason last year from Jacksonville. Ray Rice will miss the first two games due to suspension, so Bernard Pierce will have a chance to seize a sizable workload. Pierce could be a better fit for Kubiak’s blocking schemes. Torrey Smith averaged over 17 yards per catch last year, and with better pass protection could see an up tick in usage. Steve Smith was brought in for the other starting spot, and Baltimore is looking for the same value out of him that they got from Anquan Boldin during their Super Bowl run. Dennis Pitta is Joe Flacco’s security blanket, and a full season from him would do wonders on third down.

            Even with younger players replacing veterans from the Super Bowl team and a sputtering offense, the defense nearly cracked the top-10 in total yards allowed. For the Ravens to return to the level of play from their hey-day, they will need to generate more negative plays. C.J. Mosley looks like the next in a long line of great Baltimore linebackers. Jimmy Smith was a first round pick in 2011, and this might be his last chance to play to his potential before Baltimore looks for another option at cornerback. Terrance Brooks was a steal in the third round, and projects to be an immediate starter.

Prediction = The offense will improve enough to keep the defense off the field more, and return the Ravens to playoff contention. 9-7

1. Cincinnati Bengals

2013 Record = 11-5, AFC North Champions, Lost AFC Wildcard Game

2014 Schedule = @ Ravens, Falcons, Titans, BYE, @ Patriots, Panthers, @ Colts, Ravens, Jaguars, Browns, @ Saints, @ Texans, @ Buccaneers, Steelers, @ Browns, Broncos, @ Steelers

Blue Chippers = LT Andrew Whitworth, DT Geno Atkins

High Quality Players = WR A.J. Green, OLB Vontaze Burfict
Solid Contributors = HB Giovanni Bernard, WR Marvin Jones, RG Kevin Zeitler, RT Andre Smith, DE Carlos Dunlap, CB Leon Hall, CB Adam Jones, FS Reggie Nelson
Impact Rookies = CB Darqueze Dennard (1-24, Michigan State)

Good News = Giovanni Bernard will be the feature back.

Bad News = Andy Dalton is still slated to be their quarterback if they have to play playoff games.

Outlook = Cincinnati has assembled arguably the deepest all around roster in the NFL, with talent at all the skill positions, a solid  offensive line, and a top-5 defense. Expanded workloads for Giovanni Bernard and Marvin Jones will take some defensive attention away from A.J. Green, and should propel the Bengals to even greater heights. The only question is the red head under center. Andy Dalton has been solid during his first three seasons during the regular season. He’s won 30 games in his pro career, and last year tossed a career high 33 touchdowns. Unfortunately, he’s been so atrocious in his three career playoff games, even Tony Romo said, “Man this guy sucks in January” (EDITORS NOTE: Romo didn’t actually say that, but he should’ve). This year boils down to whether or not Dalton delivers the goods in the playoffs. The roster is vastly superior to the rest of the AFC North, so a division title is virtually assured. Dalton only needs to win one elimination game to quiet critics of the mammoth extension he inked this season.

Prediction = We’re guessing the Bengals win 11 games again before Dalton shits his pants again in the playoffs. Is it too early to wager on this? 11-5 

Click here to read about the AFC East

Click here to read about the NFC East
Click here to read about the AFC South
Click here to read about the NFC South
Click here to read about the NFC North
Click here to read about the AFC West

2013 AFC North Preview

         We turn our attention to the AFC North, a.k.a. the only division that might be worse than the AFC East.

4. Cleveland Browns

 

2012 Record = 5-11, fourth in AFC North

2013 Schedule = Dolphins, @ Ravens, @ Vikings, Bengals, Bills, Lions, @ Packers, @ Chiefs, Ravens, BYE, @ Bengals, Steelers, Jaguars, @ Patriots, Bears, @ Jets, @ Steelers

Franchise Players = RB Trent Richardson, LT Joe Thomas, C Alex Mack, CB Joe Haden

Supporting Cast = WR Josh Gordon, LG Jason Pinkston, DE Ahtyba Rubin, DT Phil Taylor, MLB D’Qwell Jackson, OLB Paul Kruger, SS T.J. Ward
Notable Rookies = OLB Barkevious Mingo (LSU, 1-6), CB Leon McFadden (San Diego St., 3-68)

Offensive Outlook = It feels like a waste of time talking about an offense who’s second year quarterback is 29-years old, but in the interest of maintaining continuity, we’ll do it anyway. Trent Richardson is the centerpiece of the offense, and with Norv Turner taking over as offensive coordinator, Richardson will be sure to see a massive workload. Injuries have already hit the offensive line, so that is a concern for Richardson’s overall production. Cleveland has an interesting (that’s a better adjective than inexperienced) group of receivers that bring different skill sets to the table. Josh Gordon established himself as a quality deep threat, and is the clear #1 receiver. Greg Little has shown flashes as a third down target, but doesn’t utilize his size enough in the red zone. Davone Bess was acquired in a trade with Miami and figures to be heavily targeted on third down. Travis Benjamin is another speedy receiver who can work out of the slot, and tight end Jordan Cameron is a deep fantasy sleeper. An average quarterback could utilize all of these weapons, but unfortunately Brandon Weeden is still on top of the depth chart. Weeden. Weeden has a big arm, but isn’t effective enough when he’s forced to his second or third read.
Defensive Outlook = Cleveland’s run defense was solid, but it’s secondary play was abysmal. Part of their issues have to do with Joe Haden missing five games last season (four of them because of a suspension). Haden has the skills to be a top-5 corner in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, but needs to make more plays. Paul Kruger (the leader in sacks for the Super Bowl champions last year) and rookie Barkevious Mingo have been brought in to bolster a pass rush that was virtually non-existent last year. Upping the quarterback pressure will go along way in improving the pass defense. 

Ceiling = 7-9 

Floor = 2-14
Prediction = 4-12
            Cleveland has assembled some nice young pieces, but until it has a solid quarterback prospect in the fold, there’s littler reason for optimism.
 

3. Pittsburgh Steelers

 

2012 Record = 8-8, third in AFC North

2013 Schedule = Titans, @ Bengals, Bears, @ Vikings, BYE, @ Jets, Ravens, @ Raiders, @ Patriots, Bills, Lions, @ Browns, @ Ravens, Dolphins, Bengals, @ Packers, Browns

Franchise Players = QB Ben Roethlisberger, C Maurkice Pouncey, SS Troy Polamalu

Supporting Cast = WR Antonio Brown, TE Heath Miller (on PUP list through Week 6), DE Brett Keisel, MLB Lawrence Timmons, MLB Larry Foote, OLD LaMarr Woodley, OLB Jason Worilds, CB Ike Taylor, FS Ryan Clark
Notable Rookies = OLB Jarvis Jones (Georgia, 1-17), RB Le’Veon Bell (Michigan St., 2-48), WR Markus Wheaton (Oregon St., 3-79), QB Landry Jones (Oklahoma, 4-115)

Offensive Outlook = On paper, Pittsburgh suffered the biggest free agent defection of the off-season with the loss of Mike Wallace. He was a field stretching threat that demanded attention on every snap. However, the Steelers do have some players with the potential to at least partially fill the void. Antonio Brown dealt with nagging injuries throughout the 2012 season, but a return to health could lead to Reggie Wayne like production for him. Emmanuel Sanders is slated to get the first crack to fill the deep threat role, but he hasn’t demonstrated in the past that he’s capable of doing it. Pittsburgh might eventually turn to third round pick Markus Wheaton, who on paper looks like a Mike Wallace clone. Pittsburgh’s running game was a mess that season, but it was hard to pinpoint if that had to with the runningbacks, the offensive line, or both groups. Second rounder Le’Veon Bell had a leg up to get the starting tailback gig, and he would’ve represented a massive upgrade over Jonathan Dwyer. Unfortunately, he’s now out for six to eight weeks. David DeCastro, last year’s first round pick, looks to rebound from a 2012 that was cut way to short by injury. He has the potential to form one of the best interior line duos with center Maurkice Pouncey. All of these adjustments will ultimately impact the effectiveness of Ben Roethlisberger. It’s unclear how much more of a beating Big Ben can take, so improved offensive line play is paramount to Pittsburgh’s chances of making the playoffs.

Defensive Outlook = Pittsburgh led the league in total defense last year, only allowing 275.8 yards per game. Unfortunately, the Steelers were unable to force turnovers. For the defense to return to the level of its last Super Bowl year in 2008-09, they will need to create game changing plays. The linebacking core is still the strength of the team, with arguably as much depth as any other team. LaMarr Woodley, Jason Worilds, and Jarvis Jones are three dynamic outside linebackers that can create havoc for opposing quarterbacks. If Cortez Allen continues to make strides, Pittsburgh will have the best cornerback duo in the division. They already have the best safety duo, even with Troy Polamalu losing a step. The biggest question mark for the Steelers defense is nose tackle. Casey Hampton has manned that position for years, but this year he will be replaced by Steve McClendon. McClendon doesn’t have the size that is normally required for a 3-4 end, so hopefully for Pittsburgh fans he’s the second coming of Jay Ratliff.

Ceiling = 12-4

Floor = 5-11
Prediction = 7-9
            Pittsburgh is in a state of transition, so it’s reasonable to expect growing pains. Look for another mediocre season before a return to Super Bowl contention in 2014.
 

2. Baltimore Ravens

 

2012 Record = 10-6, first in AFC North

2013 Schedule = @ Broncos, Browns, Texans, @ Bills, @ Dolphins, Packers, @ Steelers, BYE, @ Browns, Bengals, @ Bears, Jets, Steelers, Vikings, @ Lions, Patriots, @ Bengals

Franchise Players = QB Joe Flacco, RB Ray Rice, RG Marshal Yanda, DE Haloti Ngata, OLB Terrell Suggs

Supporting Cast = WR Torrey Smith, WR/KR Jacoby Jones, TE Dennis Pitta (Out for the season with a hip injury), RT Michael Oher, OLB Elvis Dumervil, CB Lardarius Webb, K Justin Tucker
Notable Rookies = SS Matt Elam (Florida, 1-32), OLB Arthur Brown (Kansas St., 2-56)

Offensive Outlook = It’s hard to remember a defending Super Bowl champion that lost so many key players, but at least offensively the most important ones return. Joe Flacco played like a Greek God of quarterbacking last postseason, but it’s hard to forecast that effort continuing into the regular season. He’s solid, but the offense is at its best when it’s centered on Ray Rice. Rice is still a dynamic player (view his epic fourth and 28 conversion last year against San Diego as proof) that can carry an offense. Bernard Pierce made great impressions in a reserve role, and could be in line for increased carries. With the losses of Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta, Torrey Smith will have to shoulder a heavier workload. He’s an elite route runner, which gives him a chance to transition from deep threat to primary receiver. Who ends up getting receptions other than Ray Rice or Smith is anyone’s guess.

Defensive Outlook = When’s the last time a defense lost two first ballot Hall of Famers in the same off-season? Sure Ray Lewis would probably have been suspended for steroids probably have lost a step if he came back, and Ed Reed has lost some of his range, but these were both emotional leaders of the Ravens defense for a long time. Add in the losses of Paul Kruger and Dannell Ellerbe, and you appear to have a dramatic drop in talent on the Ravens defense. Fortunately, the cupboard isn’t bare. Terrell Suggs should be back close to full strength, and Chris Canty and Marcus Spears have been added to bolster the run defense. Terrance Cody and Haloti Ngata are also still in the fold. Elvis Dumervil has been added and will fill the void left by Kruger. He’s a superior pass rusher, but isn’t the same all around defender. Jameel McClain will start in place of Ray Lewis. Physically there won’t be a drop off (throw out the deer antler fueled playoff run for Lewis), but it’ll hard to quantify what the drop off in leadership will do to the defense. Lardarius Webb will make a comeback from a torn ACL, which will give Baltimore a shutdown corner.

Ceiling = 13-3

Floor = 6-10
Prediction = 9-7
            It would be easy to predict a significant drop-off because of the players who won’t be returning, and just as easy to predict another Super Bowl contending run because they are the Ravens and that’s what they do. We’ll predict that they’ll scuffle a bit early before rounding into form by December.      
 

1. Cincinnati Bengals

 

2012 Record = 10-6, second in AFC North 

2013 Schedule = @ Bears, Steelers, Packers, @ Browns, Patriots, @ Bills, @ Lions, Jets, @ Dolphins, @ Ravens, Browns, BYE, @ Chargers, Colts, @ Steelers, Vikings, Ravens

Franchise Players = WR A.J. Green, LT Andrew Whitworth, DT Geno Atkins

Supporting Cast = QB Andy Dalton, RB Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis, TE Jermaine Gresham, RG Kevin Zeitler, DT Domata Peko, DE Michael Johnson, MLB Rey Maualuga, OLB James Harrison, OLB Vontaze Burfict, CB Leon Hall, FS Reggie Nelson, P Kevin Huber
Notable Rookies = TE Tyler Eifert (Notre Dame, 1-21), RB Giovani Bernard (North Carolina, 2-37), DE Margus Hunt (Southern Methodist, 2-53)

Offensive Outlook = We’re pretty sure the Cincinnati Bengals are the first team since the merger to make the playoffs two straight seasons with a redheaded quarterback. Unfortunately, each playoff appearance ended with a beating in Houston. Andy Dalton has chemistry with A.J. Green (it would be hard for any NFL caliber quarterback to not be successful throwing the ball to him), but he hasn’t been effective enough when he’s forced to his second or third read. Green is a top-5 wide receiver who demands double coverage on every play. The Bengals attempted to ease the pressure on Green by adding Tyler Eifert in the first round. Along with Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati will now have the best tight end duo in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. “The Firm” is still penciled in as the starting runningback, but it will be hard for Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis to not cede carries to talented rookie Giovani Bernard. If Bernard gets enough touches, he’s a solid bet for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Much like the rest of the offense (with the exception of Green), the offensive line is average. 

Defensive Outlook = There weren’t many defenses stronger down the stretch last season than the one employed by Cincinnati. Including their playoff loss to Houston, Cincinnati didn’t allow more than 20 points over their final nine games. Defensive tackle Geno Atkins was at the center of it, generating 12.5 sacks and providing stout run defense. Domata Peko and Michael Johnson were fantastic complimentary pieces to Atkins along the defensive line. Cincinnati struck gold last season with undrafted free agent Vontaze Burfict, who shockingly led the Bengals in tackles a season ago. The secondary will get a boost from having a fully healthy Leon Hall at corner from the start of Week 1. He was recovering from an ACL tear and wasn’t playing up to his usual standards until the final month of the season.

Ceiling = 14-2

Floor = 8-8
Prediction = 11-5
            We’re counting on a breakout from Bernard, and a consistent season of top-5 defense. The Bengals mediocre quarterback won’t bite them in the ass until the playoffs.
 

Click here to read about the AFC East

Click here to read about the AFC South
Click here to read about the NFC East
Click here to read about the NFC South

Pre-Season Fantasy Football QB Ranks

           No Credentials is handling its fantasy football prep a little differently this year. Over the next ten days, we’ll be presenting our pre-pre-season fantasy ranks by position. We’ll group all ranked players by tiers, with an explanation of the value of each group, plus talk about whether or not the draft price is too high or low for each player. Sometime around the third week of pre-season, we’ll update our rankings (good chance an ACL or two explodes by then) to give you a clearer pre-draft preview (No Credentials fantasy rule #1…if you participate in a fantasy football draft in July, you’re an idiot). We start with the most important position in football (although not necessarily in fantasy football. We’ll have more on that in our next post).

Quarterback

            Last season, quarterbacks invaded the first round of most fantasy drafts, with Rodgers-Brees-Brady all going in the top 10. This year, with more stability at the runningback position, Rodgers is a fringe first round option, while everyone else falls to the second or later.

            Unless you’re playing a league that starts two quarterbacks, or is 14 teams or larger, there’s no reason to pick one too soon. Matthew Stafford threw the ball 724 times last year, and he’s the tenth quarterback off the board in average Yahoo drafts.

Tier 1 – The Sure Things

1	A.Rodgers, Packers
2	C.Newton, Panthers
3	D.Brees, Saints

            For my money, these are the three most reliable players in the game. Rodgers and Brees both will have the benefit of improved situations over a year ago (Green Bay actually employs talented runningbacks, and the Saints will actually have a real Head Coach), while Newton delivers the highest ceiling. Of the new bread of running quarterbacks, he’s the most durable.

            Rodgers sticker price will be too high for me, unless for some reason I find myself in a four-team league. He’s average price is 11.8 (early second round in ten team leagues, late first in 12), which is a tough place to not take a runningback. Brees is an option only if he falls into the third round, but his current 18.6 average selection is still to pricey. Newton is the best bargain of this group. He’s going in the third round, which if you’ve already solidified your runningbacks, is a great value.

Tier 2 – The Next Best Things

4	C.Kaepernick, 49ers
5	M.Ryan, Falcons
6	P.Manning, Broncos

These guys aren’t far from the top tier, but they all have slight amounts of risk. We haven’t seen Kaepernick play for a full 16 games yet, but he’s capable of delivering production similar to Cam Newton. Manning will put up stats equal to Drew Brees if healthy, but his past neck issues knock him down a tier. Matt Ryan is reliable, but doesn’t provide the back breaking point scoring weeks that the top group does.3

           Manning will not be on any of my teams, because for where he’s going in the third round, I’d much rather have either Cam Newton, a wide receiver, or Jimmy Graham. Kaepernick and Ryan are the best values at the position. They are fourth or fifth round picks (depending on league size), which means you could have your skill positions covered before you draft your franchise quarterback. Snag Kaepernick if your searching for sky-high potential, while Ryan provides a reliable floor that will not doom your team.

Tier 3 – The Head Scratchers

7	T.Romo, Cowboys
8	M.Stafford, Lions
9	A.Luck, Colts

            Equally adept at scoring 35 or 5 points in a given week, these will be the most frustrating quarterbacks to own. Fortunately, if you wait to draft these guys, your team should be deep enough that it could withstand a clunker from your quarterback. You’ll find Stafford in the seventh, Luck in the ninth, and Romo in the tenth. If I miss out on the QBs I highlighted in the first two tiers, these are the guys I’m waiting for.

Tier 4 – What’s Around These Guys?

10	R.Wilson, Seahawks
11	T.Brady, Patriots
12	B.Roethlisberger, Steelers
13	E.Manning, Giants

For Brady, Roethlisberger, and Manning, the only reason they are this low is my lack of trust in the talent around them. Brady is without Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, and maybe Ron Gronkowski for the first six weeks of the season. Big Ben will not have the services of Mike Wallace, and will more than likely have a physically limited Heath Miller. Eli Manning can’t fully count on a productive Hakeem Nicks, and even with him, his erratic-ness (even worse than my boy Romo, look at Eli’s week 8 through 10 last year) makes him difficult to have own. Wilson has the best situation of any of these guys, but Seattle ran the ball more than anyone last year, and I’m not convinced that Wilson will air it out any more this season.

(EDITORS NOTE: I think I still have a subliminal bias against Wilson after all of the jokes I made about him last year, so this rank probably isn’t fair)

Tier 5 – Too Many Questions For Me

14	M.Vick, Eagles
15	R.Griffin III, Redskins
16	J.Freeman, Buccaneers

            Vick and Freeman’s placement on this list are a given, but most of you will question why Robert Griffin III is this low. The reason is simple…I don’t trust that his leg will hold up. He might come back opening day at the same all world level he was playing at last year, but how long will he stay upright? RGIII is going in the middle of the sixth round in ten team leagues, which is insane when you’re talking about a position as deep as quarterback (remember last year when Adrian Peterson was a draft day question mark, runningback wasn’t nearly as deep). If I get the chance to pair him up with a guy like Roethlisberger at a discount price, I’m all for rolling the dice on Griffin, but I will not ask him to be my starting fantasy quarterback.

Tier 6 – The Bye Week Subs

17	J.Flacco, Ravens
18	A.Dalton, Bengals
19	M.Schaub, Texans
20	C.Palmer, Cardinals
21	P.Rivers, Chargers
22	S.Bradford, Rams
23	J.Cutler, Bears

You probably shouldn’t draft any of these guys unless you’re in a 12-team league or larger, or a league that starts two quarterbacks, but keep them in mind for bye weeks. Of this group, Carson Palmer provides the greatest upside.

Tier 7 – The Second Tier Bye Week Subs

24	M.Flynn, Raiders
25	A.Smith, Chiefs
26	R.Tannehill, Dolphins
27	J.Locker, Titans
28	K.Kolb, Bills

You absolutely shouldn’t draft any of these dudes, but keep an eye on Tannehill and Locker to see if they can be productive. 

Tier 8 – I Only Ranked Them to End at a Multiple of Five

29	C.Ponder, Vikings
30	N.Foles, Eagles
31	B.Weeden, Browns
32	E.Manuel, Bills
33	C.Henne, Jaguars
34	R.Fitzpatrick, Titans
35	M.Sanchez, Jets

            Not surprisingly, Blaine Gabbert was still too shitty to make the eighth tier.

No Credentials Top-12 Ranks, Cost Adjusted

            Based on the current average draft position in Yahoo drafts, here’s the ranking of which quarterbacks I would want the most on my team. In parenthesis is the average draft spot.

C.Kaepernick, 49ers (41.7)

C.Newton, Panthers (26.2)

M.Ryan, Falcons (47.3)

T.Romo, Cowboys (89.1)

M.Stafford, Lions (62.4)

A.Luck, Colts (79.9)

D.Brees, Saints (18.3)

B.Roethlisberger, Steelers (107.6)

E.Manning, Giants (103.2)

A.Rodgers, Packers (11.6)

P.Manning, Broncos (25.6)

T.Brady, Patriots (31.8)