Pre-Season Fantasy Football QB Ranks

           No Credentials is handling its fantasy football prep a little differently this year. Over the next ten days, we’ll be presenting our pre-pre-season fantasy ranks by position. We’ll group all ranked players by tiers, with an explanation of the value of each group, plus talk about whether or not the draft price is too high or low for each player. Sometime around the third week of pre-season, we’ll update our rankings (good chance an ACL or two explodes by then) to give you a clearer pre-draft preview (No Credentials fantasy rule #1…if you participate in a fantasy football draft in July, you’re an idiot). We start with the most important position in football (although not necessarily in fantasy football. We’ll have more on that in our next post).

Quarterback

            Last season, quarterbacks invaded the first round of most fantasy drafts, with Rodgers-Brees-Brady all going in the top 10. This year, with more stability at the runningback position, Rodgers is a fringe first round option, while everyone else falls to the second or later.

            Unless you’re playing a league that starts two quarterbacks, or is 14 teams or larger, there’s no reason to pick one too soon. Matthew Stafford threw the ball 724 times last year, and he’s the tenth quarterback off the board in average Yahoo drafts.

Tier 1 – The Sure Things

1	A.Rodgers, Packers
2	C.Newton, Panthers
3	D.Brees, Saints

            For my money, these are the three most reliable players in the game. Rodgers and Brees both will have the benefit of improved situations over a year ago (Green Bay actually employs talented runningbacks, and the Saints will actually have a real Head Coach), while Newton delivers the highest ceiling. Of the new bread of running quarterbacks, he’s the most durable.

            Rodgers sticker price will be too high for me, unless for some reason I find myself in a four-team league. He’s average price is 11.8 (early second round in ten team leagues, late first in 12), which is a tough place to not take a runningback. Brees is an option only if he falls into the third round, but his current 18.6 average selection is still to pricey. Newton is the best bargain of this group. He’s going in the third round, which if you’ve already solidified your runningbacks, is a great value.

Tier 2 – The Next Best Things

4	C.Kaepernick, 49ers
5	M.Ryan, Falcons
6	P.Manning, Broncos

These guys aren’t far from the top tier, but they all have slight amounts of risk. We haven’t seen Kaepernick play for a full 16 games yet, but he’s capable of delivering production similar to Cam Newton. Manning will put up stats equal to Drew Brees if healthy, but his past neck issues knock him down a tier. Matt Ryan is reliable, but doesn’t provide the back breaking point scoring weeks that the top group does.3

           Manning will not be on any of my teams, because for where he’s going in the third round, I’d much rather have either Cam Newton, a wide receiver, or Jimmy Graham. Kaepernick and Ryan are the best values at the position. They are fourth or fifth round picks (depending on league size), which means you could have your skill positions covered before you draft your franchise quarterback. Snag Kaepernick if your searching for sky-high potential, while Ryan provides a reliable floor that will not doom your team.

Tier 3 – The Head Scratchers

7	T.Romo, Cowboys
8	M.Stafford, Lions
9	A.Luck, Colts

            Equally adept at scoring 35 or 5 points in a given week, these will be the most frustrating quarterbacks to own. Fortunately, if you wait to draft these guys, your team should be deep enough that it could withstand a clunker from your quarterback. You’ll find Stafford in the seventh, Luck in the ninth, and Romo in the tenth. If I miss out on the QBs I highlighted in the first two tiers, these are the guys I’m waiting for.

Tier 4 – What’s Around These Guys?

10	R.Wilson, Seahawks
11	T.Brady, Patriots
12	B.Roethlisberger, Steelers
13	E.Manning, Giants

For Brady, Roethlisberger, and Manning, the only reason they are this low is my lack of trust in the talent around them. Brady is without Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, and maybe Ron Gronkowski for the first six weeks of the season. Big Ben will not have the services of Mike Wallace, and will more than likely have a physically limited Heath Miller. Eli Manning can’t fully count on a productive Hakeem Nicks, and even with him, his erratic-ness (even worse than my boy Romo, look at Eli’s week 8 through 10 last year) makes him difficult to have own. Wilson has the best situation of any of these guys, but Seattle ran the ball more than anyone last year, and I’m not convinced that Wilson will air it out any more this season.

(EDITORS NOTE: I think I still have a subliminal bias against Wilson after all of the jokes I made about him last year, so this rank probably isn’t fair)

Tier 5 – Too Many Questions For Me

14	M.Vick, Eagles
15	R.Griffin III, Redskins
16	J.Freeman, Buccaneers

            Vick and Freeman’s placement on this list are a given, but most of you will question why Robert Griffin III is this low. The reason is simple…I don’t trust that his leg will hold up. He might come back opening day at the same all world level he was playing at last year, but how long will he stay upright? RGIII is going in the middle of the sixth round in ten team leagues, which is insane when you’re talking about a position as deep as quarterback (remember last year when Adrian Peterson was a draft day question mark, runningback wasn’t nearly as deep). If I get the chance to pair him up with a guy like Roethlisberger at a discount price, I’m all for rolling the dice on Griffin, but I will not ask him to be my starting fantasy quarterback.

Tier 6 – The Bye Week Subs

17	J.Flacco, Ravens
18	A.Dalton, Bengals
19	M.Schaub, Texans
20	C.Palmer, Cardinals
21	P.Rivers, Chargers
22	S.Bradford, Rams
23	J.Cutler, Bears

You probably shouldn’t draft any of these guys unless you’re in a 12-team league or larger, or a league that starts two quarterbacks, but keep them in mind for bye weeks. Of this group, Carson Palmer provides the greatest upside.

Tier 7 – The Second Tier Bye Week Subs

24	M.Flynn, Raiders
25	A.Smith, Chiefs
26	R.Tannehill, Dolphins
27	J.Locker, Titans
28	K.Kolb, Bills

You absolutely shouldn’t draft any of these dudes, but keep an eye on Tannehill and Locker to see if they can be productive. 

Tier 8 – I Only Ranked Them to End at a Multiple of Five

29	C.Ponder, Vikings
30	N.Foles, Eagles
31	B.Weeden, Browns
32	E.Manuel, Bills
33	C.Henne, Jaguars
34	R.Fitzpatrick, Titans
35	M.Sanchez, Jets

            Not surprisingly, Blaine Gabbert was still too shitty to make the eighth tier.

No Credentials Top-12 Ranks, Cost Adjusted

            Based on the current average draft position in Yahoo drafts, here’s the ranking of which quarterbacks I would want the most on my team. In parenthesis is the average draft spot.

C.Kaepernick, 49ers (41.7)

C.Newton, Panthers (26.2)

M.Ryan, Falcons (47.3)

T.Romo, Cowboys (89.1)

M.Stafford, Lions (62.4)

A.Luck, Colts (79.9)

D.Brees, Saints (18.3)

B.Roethlisberger, Steelers (107.6)

E.Manning, Giants (103.2)

A.Rodgers, Packers (11.6)

P.Manning, Broncos (25.6)

T.Brady, Patriots (31.8)