Showing posts with label Matthew Stafford. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Matthew Stafford. Show all posts

Monday, August 25, 2014

2014 NFC North Preview


4. Minnesota Vikings

2013 Record = 5-10-1, Last in NFC North, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = @ Rams, Patriots, @ Saints, Falcons, @ Packers, Lions, @ Bills, @ Buccaneers, Redskins, BYE, @ Bears, Packers, Panthers, Jets, @ Lions, @ Dolphins, Bears

Blue Chippers = HB Adrian Peterson
High Quality Players = C John Sullivan, RG Brandon Fusco, RT Phil Loadholt
Solid Contributors = FB Jerome Felton, WR Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Greg Jennings, DE Brian Robison, DT Linval Joseph, CB Captain Munnerlyn, FS Harrison Smith
Impact Rookies = OLB Anthony Barr (1-9, UCLA), QB Teddy Bridgewater (1-32, Louisville), DE Scott Crichton (3-72, Oregon State)

Good News = They didn’t rehire Brad Childress.
Bad News = Starting in Week 2, they play a five week stretch where they will face Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, and Matthew Stafford. Ouch.

Outlook = With the exception of the improbable Brett Favre year in 2009, Minnesota has featured a mediocre revolving door at quarterback for the last decade. Teddy Bridgewater might be the man to change that, but we likely won’t find that out until 2015, as Minnesota appears set on grooming him on the bench this season. Matt Cassell will be the Week 1 starter, and he could have success with the pieces he has at the skill positions. Adrian Peterson is still one of the elite runningbacks in the game, but one has to wonder how many quality years he has left. Greg Jennings saw his production improve when Cassell was playing as opposed to Christian Ponder. Cordarrelle Patterson has a very long name, and also happens to be one of the most over hyped fantasy assets this season. Matt Cassel isn’t the right guy to take advantage of Patterson’s elite speed. Kyle Rudolph was disappointing last year overall, but like Jennings also performed better without Ponder in the lineup. The offensive line could reach elite status if Matt Kalil continues to improve during his sophomore campaign.

            Defensively is where Minnesota will run into the majority of it’s problems. They gave up more points than any other club in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE last year, and other than defensive guru Mike Zimmer taking over as Head Coach, there isn’t a reason to expect this unit to be any better. Jared Allen left for Chicago, leaving career backup Everson Griffen to fill his shoes. Chad Greenway is a tackling machine when healthy, but it’s unlikely he lasts a full 16 games. Captain Munnerlyn was their key signing for the secondary, but he’s not good enough to transform the entire defense.

Prediction = Peterson will win a game or two by himself, but shoddy quarterback play and poor defense won’t get Minnesota back to the postseason. 5-11
3. Chicago Bears

2013 Record = 8-8, Second in NFC North, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = Bills, @ 49ers, @ Jets, Packers, @ Panthers, @ Falcons, Dolphins, @ Patriots, BYE, @ Packers, Vikings, Buccaneers, @ Lions, Cowboys, Saints, Lions, @ Vikings

Blue Chippers = WR Brandon Marshall
High Quality Players = WR Alshon Jeffery
Solid Contributors = QB Jay Cutler, HB Matt Forte, TE Martellus Bennett, LG Matt Slauson, DE LaMarr Houston, OLB Lance Briggs, CB Tim Jennings, CB Charles Tillman
Impact Rookies = CB Kyle Fuller (1-14, Virginia Tech)

Good News = For the first time since the 1940s, Chicago might finish as the most prolific offense in the NFC.
Bad News = Their defense didn’t get any younger.

Outlook = The Bears are set up to have another dynamic offensive season, but their win total hinges largely on the ability of their defense to at least be average. Last year, they were historically bad, surrendering the most points in franchise history. There were issues at every level of the defense, with the defensive line being the weakest link. Chicago was the worst against the run in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE, and produced the second fewest sacks. Julius Peppers and his bloated salary were released, and Chicago replaced him with Jared Allen and LaMarr Houston. They didn’t do anything dramatic to address the defensive tackle position, which could be an Achilles’ Heal. Lance Briggs was the only linebacker who played with any kind of consistency in 2013, and once again will be asked to anchor the defense. Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings are one of the longest tenured cornerback duos in the league, and Kyle Fuller is an excellent heir apparent who will find plenty of playing time in nickel packages. Both safety spots were considered an open competition heading into training camp, and Chicago desperately needs someone to step up in those roles.
            The better the defense plays, the more opportunities an offense that finished second in total scoring will have the ball even more. Jay Cutler has been much maligned, but actually posted his most efficient season to date in 2013. A second year in Marc Trestman’s system should lead to further improvement. Matt Forte set career highs in receptions and total yards last year, and is the perfect tailback for what the Bears want to do on offense. Brandon Marshall has been established as an elite receiver for many years, but it was Alshon Jeffery’s emergence that pushed Chicago to another level offensively. Martellus Bennett wasn’t as spectacular, but also provided solid production not seen by a Chicago tight end since the days of Mike Ditka. The offensive line showed stunning progress from 2012, and with another year of continuity could make the leap to top-5 status by year’s end.

Prediction = We see Chicago as the Dallas Cowboys of the NFC North. There will be many entertaining games, but a weak defense and erratic quarterback play at the wrong time by Jay Cutler will keep the Bears near .500. 9-7

2. Detroit Lions

2013 Record = 7-9, Third in NFC North, Missed Playoffs
2014 Schedule = Giants, @ Panthers, Packers, @ Jets, Bills, @ Vikings, Saints, Falcons, BYE, Dolphins, @ Cardinals, @ Patriots, Bears, Buccaneers, Vikings, @ Bears, @ Packers

Blue Chippers = WR Calvin Johnson, DT Ndamukong Suh
High Quality Players = HB Joique Bell, RG Larry Warford, MLB Stephen Tulloch
Solid Contributors = QB Matthew Stafford, HB Reggie Bush, WR Golden Tate, C Dominic Raiola, DT Nick Fairley, FS Glover Quin
Impact Rookies = TE Eric Ebron (1-10, North Carolina), OLB Kyle Van Noy (2-40, BYU)

Good News = They fired Jim Schwarz.
Bad News = They hired Jim Caldwell.

Outlook = This will be one team that I spend very little time discussing the roster (you can see the names above, they have talent), because everything here has to do with the Head Coach. I don’t really believe in Jim Caldwell (hard to be inspired by a guy who doesn’t blink or show emotion on the sideline), but there’s a chance that anything is an improvement over Jim Schwarz. Detroit has felt like a team playing playground football the past few years with egregious personal foul calls and awful turnovers at the worst times. Caldwell was the Head Coach when the Colts made the Super Bowl in 2009, and also was the play-caller for the Ravens Super Bowl run in 2012. There’s a chance he provides Stafford with enough structure to increase his efficiency, pushing Detroit into dark horse contender status.


Prediction = Dumping the worst coach in football is worth a three win improvement. 10-6
1. Green Bay Packers

2013 Record = 8-7-1, NFC North Champions, Lost NFC Wildcard Game
2014 Schedule = @ Seahawks, Jets, @ Lions, @ Bears, Vikings, @ Dolphins, Panthers, @ Saints, BYE, Bears, Eagles, @ Vikings, Patriots, Falcons, @ Bills, @ Buccaneers, Lions

Blue Chippers = QB Aaron Rodgers, LG Josh Sitton, OLB Clay Matthews
High Quality Players = HB Eddie Lacy, WR Jordy Nelson
Solid Contributors = FB John Kuhn, WR Randall Cobb, RG T.J. Lang, DE Mike Daniels, CB Sam Shields, CB Casey Hayward
Impact Rookies = FS Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (1-21, Alabama), WR Davante Adams (2-53, Fresno State)

Good News = Ha Ha Clinton-Dix fell into their laps at 21, filling their biggest need on the roster.
Bad News = They were unable to adequately replace Jermichael Finley.

Outlook = It was somewhat of a minor miracle that the Green Bay Packers were able to make the playoffs after Aaron Rodgers missed seven starts due to a broken collarbone. If you prorate the time he played in 2013 over a full 16 games, Rodgers would’ve been on pace for his first 5,000 yard season. Randall Cobb also missed 10 games due to a broken leg, and his return is vital to provide a stable complement for Jordy Nelson. Jarrett Boykin and rookie Davante Adams will have the first chance to fill the shoes of James Jones, who departed for Oakland. Eddie Lacy proved in his first season that he can be a workhorse, and a full season paired with Rodgers could lead to the most rushing touchdowns in the league. The most glaring hole on the Packers offense is the lack of a receiving tight end, as new starter Andrew Quarless is not a dynamic athlete.
            The Packers defense was exposed last year without Aaron Rodgers piling up points on the offensive side of the ball. They’ve already taken a big hit with B.J. Raji suffering a season ending injury during the pre-season. Veteran Julius Peppers was brought in to play a mix of defensive end and outside linebacker, and should ease some pressure off of Clay Matthews. Tramon Williams was a disaster during the first eight games of the year, but while the rest of the defense crumbled during the second half actually performed closer to his level of play during the Packers Super Bowl run in 2010.

Prediction = Assuming a full 16 games from Rodgers, Green Bay will once again be the class of the NFC North. 11-5



Click here to read about the NFC East
Click here to read about the AFC South
Click here to read about the NFC South
Click here to read about the AFC North
Click here to read about the AFC West

Monday, June 9, 2014

2014 Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings

            The tier system worked so well for my fantasy teams last year that we are breaking it out again for our 2014 Fantasy Football preview. As the off-season progresses these rankings will be updated on this page as necessary (quarterback should be the least volatile position, barring a catastrophic injury). We start at quarterback.

 

Tier 1 – The Sure Things


A.Rodgers, GB
P.Manning, DEN
D.Brees, NO

            Not a whole lot to say about these guys, other than barring injury, they are the surest bets on the board. We’ll rank Rodgers first because he’s the youngest, and provides some decent rushing stats that you won’t get out of Brees and Manning. I won’t get any of these quarterbacks in my re-draft leagues, but certainly wouldn’t mind acquiring one in an auction. If you do pay the price, don’t bother drafting a back up.

Tier 2 – The Next Best Things

C.Newton, CAR
A.Luck, IND
M.Ryan, ATL
M.Stafford, DET

            Cam Newton was in Tier-1 last season, but without Steve Smith his receiving pool is as shallow as it has ever been. That hasn’t bothered Newton before, but the uncertainty drops him from the third round a year ago to the fourth or fifth this year. This is probably the last year that Andrew Luck is not ranked in the top group for the next decade, while Stafford and Ryan are the best bets for piling up high volume passing totals. I’ll sign off on not having a back up on your initial roster if you end up with a player from this group, as that gives you the best combination of loading up on elite skill players early, and rolling the dice on late-round lottery tickets late.

 
Tier 3 – High Ceilings, Low Floors

C.Kaepernick, SF
P.Rivers, SD
N.Foles, PHI
T.Romo, DAL
R.Wilson, SEA
R.Griffin III, WAS
B.Roethlisberger, PIT
J.Cutler, CHI
T.Brady, NE

            Last year, our quarterbacks ranked seven through sixteen were split into three tiers, but this year they are all lumped in together. You could make a compelling case that any of these QBs could finish the year as a top-5 fantasy quarterback, and then immediately follow that with a strong argument that they could finish outside the top-20. Kaepernick is our favorite of this group, as he will have a vastly improved receiving core to work with than he did for the majority of last year. Robert Griffin III probably deserves his own tier as the biggest boom or bust quarterback of the year. In a perfect world, you’ll be able to draft two of these guys on your roster and work a platoon.

Tier 4 – Qualified Bye Week Subs


A.Dalton, CIN
E.Manning, NYG
R.Tannehill, MIA
A.Smith, KC
C.Palmer, ARI
J.McCown, TB
J.Flacco, BAL

            None of these guys should be drafted as your franchise fantasy quarterback (unless you enjoy losing), but these will be your best options to cover your starters bye if you choose to utilize the waiver wire to cover your starting QBs off week. Tannehill is still the most intriguing long-term value in this group, but he’s burning daylight in terms of delivering on his potential. 

Tier 5 – Unqualified Bye Week Subs


S.Bradford, STL
J.Manziel, CLE
E.Manuel, BUF
T.Bridgewater, MIN
M.Vick, NYJ
M.Schaub, OAK
J.Locker, TEN
G.Smith, NYJ
R.Fitzpatrick, HOU

            One could also rename this group “Dynasty League Prospects and Washed Up Dudes. At gunpoint, Bridgewater is my pick to deliver the most fantasy value this season, but you shouldn’t waste a draft pick on any of these guys unless you are playing in 16-team league where you have to play two quarterbacks every week.

Conclusion = Quarterback is still the deepest position in fantasy (unless you’re playing in a 2-QB league, but that puts you in the minority), so even if I was playing in a 16 team league, I plan on being one of the last people to draft a quarterback. An early round pick is just too valuable to waste on a quarterback when you factor in the diminishing value of every other position as you get deeper into a draft. If I lockdown my two starting runningbacks, taking Aaron Rodgers early in the third is the only way I end up with a Tier-1 QB on my team. The same theory applies here for auctions, as I plan on spending my money elsewhere and grabbing a quarterback after the initial rush.

Top-16 Value Based Ranks – Based on the current average draft position based on Yahoo drafts, these is my wish lists for quarterbacks I plan on targeting for my teams.

C.Kaepernick, SF, 89.4
C.Newton, CAR, 51.9
M.Ryan, ATL, 57.8
A.Rodgers, GB, 21.1
A.Luck, IND, 48.6
M.Stafford, DET, 46.2
P.Rivers, SD 93.5
R.Wilson, SEA, 89.0
T.Romo, DAL, 89.0
B.Roethlisberger, PIT, 118.9
J.Cutler, CHI, 106.8
D.Brees, NO, 18.3
N.Foles, PHI, 69.2
R.Griffin III, WAS, 60.7
P.Manning, DEN, 11.4
T.Brady, NE, 58.0

 

Monday, October 28, 2013

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Weekend (10/25-10/27)

10. Western Connecticut’s Octavias McKoy Breaks NCAA Rushing Record
            For those not in the know, 455 is a lot of fucking yards.

9. Jeff Gordon Ends 32-Race Winless Streak
            On a day that most folks thought Jimmie Johnson would put a death-grip on The Chase, Jeff Gordon put himself in position to make a miracle run at the title.

8. Saints Pound Bills
7. Chiefs Gut Out a Win Over Cleveland
6. Cincinnati Demoralizes the Jets
5. Denver Drops 38 Unanswered Points Against Washington
4. Aaron Rodgers Eviscerates the Vikings
            Normally I don’t lump five mostly forgettable football games together in the same paragraph (even when I’m feeling super lazy), but here’s the reason these five contests make the cut.


Bills(Buffalo) 17
Saints(NewOrleans) 35
10/27/13(13:05 ET)
Saints(NewOrleans) -4.5 (-110)

Browns(Cleveland) 17
Chiefs(KansasCity) 23
10/27/13(13:05 ET)
Chiefs(KansasCity) -0.5 (-115)

Jets(NewYork) 9
Bengals(Cincinnati) 49
10/27/13(16:10 ET)
Bengals(Cincinnati) +1 (-110)

Packers(GreenBay) 41
Vikings(Minnesota) 24
10/27/13(20:35 ET)
Packers(GreenBay) -2.5 (-110)

Redskins(Washington) 21
Broncos(Denver) 45
10/27/13(16:30 ET)
Broncos(Denver) -6 (even)


 
            That my friends, is an epic five team, seven-point teaser created by yours truly. So rarely has a NFL wager gone right for No Credentials, we feel the need to celebrate it.

(EDITORS NOTE: I participated in a 20-round, ten-team fantasy basketball draft last night, and need to finish up our NBA preview, so No Credentials was in fact feeling pretty lazy tonight)

3. Calvin Johnson Goes Bonkers Against Dallas
            Megatron came up seven yards short of Flipper Anderson’s all-time single game receiving yardage record as my Dallas Cowboys choked away yet another victory. Not a bad week to own Calvin in a PPR league. Also big props to Matthew Stafford, who's ballsy quarterback sneak when everyone (including his own team) thought he was going to spike the ball was Marion-esque.

2. Obstruction Call Gives Game 3 to St. Louis
1. Final Out is a Pick-Off as Red Sox Even Series
            I would’ve been willing to bet that the Red Sox were done after the most notorious obstruction since Ray Lewis, but Johnny Gomes and Johnny Gomes’ beard changed the tide with one momentous swing.

Saturday, July 6, 2013

Pre-Season Fantasy Football QB Ranks

           No Credentials is handling its fantasy football prep a little differently this year. Over the next ten days, we’ll be presenting our pre-pre-season fantasy ranks by position. We’ll group all ranked players by tiers, with an explanation of the value of each group, plus talk about whether or not the draft price is too high or low for each player. Sometime around the third week of pre-season, we’ll update our rankings (good chance an ACL or two explodes by then) to give you a clearer pre-draft preview (No Credentials fantasy rule #1…if you participate in a fantasy football draft in July, you’re an idiot). We start with the most important position in football (although not necessarily in fantasy football. We’ll have more on that in our next post).

Quarterback


            Last season, quarterbacks invaded the first round of most fantasy drafts, with Rodgers-Brees-Brady all going in the top 10. This year, with more stability at the runningback position, Rodgers is a fringe first round option, while everyone else falls to the second or later.
            Unless you’re playing a league that starts two quarterbacks, or is 14 teams or larger, there’s no reason to pick one too soon. Matthew Stafford threw the ball 724 times last year, and he’s the tenth quarterback off the board in average Yahoo drafts.


Tier 1 – The Sure Things


1
A.Rodgers, Packers
2
C.Newton, Panthers
3
D.Brees, Saints

            For my money, these are the three most reliable players in the game. Rodgers and Brees both will have the benefit of improved situations over a year ago (Green Bay actually employs talented runningbacks, and the Saints will actually have a real Head Coach), while Newton delivers the highest ceiling. Of the new bread of running quarterbacks, he’s the most durable.
            Rodgers sticker price will be too high for me, unless for some reason I find myself in a four-team league. He’s average price is 11.8 (early second round in ten team leagues, late first in 12), which is a tough place to not take a runningback. Brees is an option only if he falls into the third round, but his current 18.6 average selection is still to pricey. Newton is the best bargain of this group. He’s going in the third round, which if you’ve already solidified your runningbacks, is a great value.


Tier 2 – The Next Best Things


4
C.Kaepernick, 49ers
5
M.Ryan, Falcons
6
P.Manning, Broncos

These guys aren’t far from the top tier, but they all have slight amounts of risk. We haven’t seen Kaepernick play for a full 16 games yet, but he’s capable of delivering production similar to Cam Newton. Manning will put up stats equal to Drew Brees if healthy, but his past neck issues knock him down a tier. Matt Ryan is reliable, but doesn’t provide the back breaking point scoring weeks that the top group does.3
           Manning will not be on any of my teams, because for where he’s going in the third round, I’d much rather have either Cam Newton, a wide receiver, or Jimmy Graham. Kaepernick and Ryan are the best values at the position. They are fourth or fifth round picks (depending on league size), which means you could have your skill positions covered before you draft your franchise quarterback. Snag Kaepernick if your searching for sky-high potential, while Ryan provides a reliable floor that will not doom your team.


Tier 3 – The Head Scratchers


7
T.Romo, Cowboys
8
M.Stafford, Lions
9
A.Luck, Colts

            Equally adept at scoring 35 or 5 points in a given week, these will be the most frustrating quarterbacks to own. Fortunately, if you wait to draft these guys, your team should be deep enough that it could withstand a clunker from your quarterback. You’ll find Stafford in the seventh, Luck in the ninth, and Romo in the tenth. If I miss out on the QBs I highlighted in the first two tiers, these are the guys I’m waiting for.


Tier 4 – What’s Around These Guys?


10
R.Wilson, Seahawks
11
T.Brady, Patriots
12
B.Roethlisberger, Steelers
13
E.Manning, Giants

For Brady, Roethlisberger, and Manning, the only reason they are this low is my lack of trust in the talent around them. Brady is without Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, and maybe Ron Gronkowski for the first six weeks of the season. Big Ben will not have the services of Mike Wallace, and will more than likely have a physically limited Heath Miller. Eli Manning can’t fully count on a productive Hakeem Nicks, and even with him, his erratic-ness (even worse than my boy Romo, look at Eli’s week 8 through 10 last year) makes him difficult to have own. Wilson has the best situation of any of these guys, but Seattle ran the ball more than anyone last year, and I’m not convinced that Wilson will air it out any more this season.

(EDITORS NOTE: I think I still have a subliminal bias against Wilson after all of the jokes I made about him last year, so this rank probably isn’t fair)


Tier 5 – Too Many Questions For Me


14
M.Vick, Eagles
15
R.Griffin III, Redskins
16
J.Freeman, Buccaneers

            Vick and Freeman’s placement on this list are a given, but most of you will question why Robert Griffin III is this low. The reason is simple…I don’t trust that his leg will hold up. He might come back opening day at the same all world level he was playing at last year, but how long will he stay upright? RGIII is going in the middle of the sixth round in ten team leagues, which is insane when you’re talking about a position as deep as quarterback (remember last year when Adrian Peterson was a draft day question mark, runningback wasn’t nearly as deep). If I get the chance to pair him up with a guy like Roethlisberger at a discount price, I’m all for rolling the dice on Griffin, but I will not ask him to be my starting fantasy quarterback.


Tier 6 – The Bye Week Subs


17
J.Flacco, Ravens
18
A.Dalton, Bengals
19
M.Schaub, Texans
20
C.Palmer, Cardinals
21
P.Rivers, Chargers
22
S.Bradford, Rams
23
J.Cutler, Bears

You probably shouldn’t draft any of these guys unless you’re in a 12-team league or larger, or a league that starts two quarterbacks, but keep them in mind for bye weeks. Of this group, Carson Palmer provides the greatest upside.


Tier 7 – The Second Tier Bye Week Subs


24
M.Flynn, Raiders
25
A.Smith, Chiefs
26
R.Tannehill, Dolphins
27
J.Locker, Titans
28
K.Kolb, Bills

You absolutely shouldn’t draft any of these dudes, but keep an eye on Tannehill and Locker to see if they can be productive. 

Tier 8 – I Only Ranked Them to End at a Multiple of Five


29
C.Ponder, Vikings
30
N.Foles, Eagles
31
B.Weeden, Browns
32
E.Manuel, Bills
33
C.Henne, Jaguars
34
R.Fitzpatrick, Titans
35
M.Sanchez, Jets

            Not surprisingly, Blaine Gabbert was still too shitty to make the eighth tier.

No Credentials Top-12 Ranks, Cost Adjusted


            Based on the current average draft position in Yahoo drafts, here’s the ranking of which quarterbacks I would want the most on my team. In parenthesis is the average draft spot.

C.Kaepernick, 49ers (41.7)
C.Newton, Panthers (26.2)
M.Ryan, Falcons (47.3)
T.Romo, Cowboys (89.1)
M.Stafford, Lions (62.4)
A.Luck, Colts (79.9)
D.Brees, Saints (18.3)
B.Roethlisberger, Steelers (107.6)
E.Manning, Giants (103.2)
A.Rodgers, Packers (11.6)
P.Manning, Broncos (25.6)
T.Brady, Patriots (31.8)