2015 Fantasy Football Preview: Quarterbacks

            We finish our fantasy football preview with a look at quarterbacks.

Tier-1 = Expensive Investments

 

A.Rodgers, GB

A.Luck, IND

            Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck are really good at quarterbacking in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. We enjoy watching them play. However, the cost to own them in standard drafts or auction is too rich for our blood. Using a second round pick on them means your passing up the chance for a stud runningback or receiver. The only chance I end up with one of these two on any of my rosters on draft day is if they are available in the third round.

Tier-2 = It’s the Water

 

R.Wilson, SEA

B.Roethlisberger, PIT

            Neither Wilson or Roethlisberger got enough credit last year for how productive they were last year for fantasy owners, but they are finally getting the respect the deserve with their current average draft price ending up in the fourth round (third round in 12 team leagues or larger). I’m not likely to choose either of them, unless I’ve already filled my starting RB slots within my first three picks.

Tier-3 = Priced to Sell

 

C.Newton, CAR

M.Ryan, ATL

T.Romo, DAL

            This is the tier I want my QB to come from on draft day. Cam Newton is one of the few quarterbacks who is “receiver proof”, meaning he could lose virtually any piece of his receiving core and still maintain the same value. The loss of Kelvin Benjamin doesn’t scare us at all, and if it means he ends up with 800 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns on the ground, it could boost his fantasy value. Matt Ryan should benefit from an improved offensive line, and should be in the running to lead the league in passing yardage. Tony Romo will have more opportunities to throw with DeMarco Murray in Philly, which isn’t a bad thing considering the talent on the Cowboys offensive line.

Tier-4 = Old Farts

P.Manning, DEN

D.Brees, NO

            Both of these guys are going before the guys in the previous tier in Yahoo drafts, but that doesn’t mean we have to rate them higher here. Both are entering the twilights of their career, and we’d rather bail out a year early than a year late. Brees might have the fewest pass attempts he’s ever had since joining New Orleans in 2006, and his upside is limited even more with Jimmy Graham out of town. Manning still has tons of weapons at his disposal, but Denver also will shift to a more run heavy approach to ensure Peyton is healthy for the playoffs.

Tier-5 = High-End Platoon Partners

E.Manning, NYG

R.Tannehill, MIA

P.Rivers, SD

            By our ranks, these three guys will be starting quarterbacks in 12-team leagues. That’s okay for us, but we’d probably use another pick on a back up to avoid unfavorable match-ups.

Tier-6 = Deflator!

T.Brady, NE

            It’s two weeks before opening night, and incredibly we still don’t have any idea what Brady’s final punishment will be (good job by you Goodell!). Even if Brady were to start Week 1, there are reasons to downgrade him in fantasy leagues. We’ll use snazzy bullet points.

-         Ryan Tannehill scored more fantasy points last year than Tom Brady.

-         Seriously, Ryan Tannehill, the guy that couldn’t even complete 25% of his passes that traveled more than 20 yards in the air last year.

-         With apologies to Julian Edelman, there still isn’t an elite wide receiver on the Patriots roster.

-         We covered it during our Tight End preview, but it bears repeating…do you like Rob Gronkowski’s chances of staying healthy for a second straight season?

-         LeGarrette Blount is in the fold early this year, which means the Pats could pound the ball on the ground even more this season.

For all those reasons, we’ll probably not have Brady on any of our fantasy rosters this year, unless we’ve filled up our starting QB-RB-WR slots and he’s available in the seventh round.

Tier-7 = Low-End (With Upside) Platoon Partners

C.Kaepernick, SF

J.Flacco, BAL

T.Bridgewater, MIN

M.Stafford, DET

            If you’re a crazy person who plays in a league that starts two QBs every week, these guys are the ones I want as my second quarterbacks. We still have a soft spot for Kaepernick, who is a strong bounce back candidate this year. The 49ers defense won’t be nearly as stout as it has been the past few years, meaning Kaepernick will have more opportunities to deliver. In real life we’re not sure Joe Flacco is a great fit for Marc Trestman’s style of offense, but the volume should translate to fantasy stats (it worked for Jay Cutler and Josh McCown!). Teddy Bridgewater is our favorite quarterback out of this group. The Vikings have weapons all over the place, and Bridgewater’s efficiency could deliver a Russell Wilson-esque stat line.

Tier-8 = Bye Week Waiver Wire Dudes

S.Bradford, PHI

N.Foles, STL

R.Griffin III, WAS

C.Palmer, ARI

J.Cutler, CHI

A.Dalton, CIN

            None of these guys should be drafted in standard leagues with 12 teams or less, but this will likely be the best options you have when your starting QB is on a bye. Sam Bradford has the highest ceiling of this tier, but we need to see him get through at least one month of regular season play before we endorse him.

Tier-9 = Young Guns

J.Winson, TB

D.Carr, OAK

B.Bortles, JAC

M.Mariotta, TEN

            Here are our favorite options for those of you playing in keeper or dynasty leagues. We expect all four to have their moments (even Bortles, we like the Jags receiving core), but they will not be start-able on a weekly basis.

Tier-10 = We Only Included Them So We Could Rank 30 QBs

A.Smith, KC

B.Hoyer, HOU

R.Fitzpatrick, NYJ

            If one of these three are starting at any point during your fantasy season, something went terribly wrong.