2015 Fantasy Football Preview: Runningbacks

            While fantasy football moves further and further away from the “RB-RB” draft strategy that was popular for years, running back is still the most important position in the game. RB has the most volatility from year to year, and the owner that navigates that the best will have an edge over his or her league.

Tier-1 = Best Bets

  

J.Charles, KC

E.Lacy, GB

M.Lynch, SEA

A.Peterson, MIN

            This quartet has the best combination of job security and possible production. We like Charles the most due to his presence in the Chiefs passing game despite the fact he was nicked up for most of 2014. You can’t argue with any of these four coming off the board first in your draft.

Tier-2 = Would Be in Tier-1, but He He’s Missing Two Games

 

L.Bell, PIT

            Bell would be the number one player if not for the fact he’s missing two games due to suspension. On average he’s going fifth in Yahoo fantasy drafts, but where he goes will vary wildly league to league. Bell was the top scoring PPR runningback a year ago, so there is no way he should slip out of the top-10. If you draft him, you should plan on waiting on either a quarterback or a tight end so you can draft a serviceable replacement for Bell during the first half of September.

Tier-3 = Awesome Second Round Picks

 

J.Hill, CIN

L.McCoy, BUF

C.Anderson, DEN

Jeremy Hill and C.J. Anderson were on a lot of championship fantasy teams last year. If they can translate their second half production from 2014 to a full 16 games, they will make a case to move into Tier-1 next season. McCoy’s hamstring injury gives us reason to worry, but if he’s healthy for Week 1 he’s going to be the feature back in an offense that might set the record for most rushing attempts.

Tier-4 = Brand Names We Aren’t Buying

D.Murray, PHI

M.Forte, CHI

            The Dallas Cowboys showed last year they had no intention of keeping Murray when they force fed him 392 carries. Add in another 57 receptions, and you have a guy who is a strong candidate to break down this year. Matt Forte’s value has been greatly enhanced over the years by his reception totals, which should decline significantly with Marc Trestman out of town.

Tier-5 = Where The Leagues Will Be Won

L.Murray, OAK

C.Hyde, SF

J.Randle, DAL

J.Stewart, CAR

A.Abdullah, DET

M.Gordon, SD

M.Ingram, NO

            Whether you’re in a standard draft or auction league, the owner that can find value out of this group will have a leg up on everyone else. This tier is so important we’ll quickly look at each back individually.

Latavius Murray, Raiders – Here’s a fearless prediction…Latavius puts up more fantasy points this year than DeMarco. We love him at his current draft price (47.4 in Yahoo leagues).

Carlos Hyde, 49ers – Hyde showed flashes last season, and with Reggie Bush merely poaching receptions, Hyde is line for a huge workload. We also love him at his current price (50.2).

Joseph Randle, Cowboys – It feels like Dallas has been trying to hand the starting gig to Randle all summer, but he just hasn’t secured the job. I’m not as high on him as I was a month ago, but behind the Cowboys’ offensive line he’s still a good bet to deliver top-20 value.

Jonathan Stewart, Panthers – After playing second fiddle to DeAngelo Williams for seven years, Stewart finally enters a season as the unquestioned lead back. He delivered solid value down the stretch last year after Williams went down for the season, and in the past has been active in the passing game (47 receptions in 2011). Durability is a question, but for where he’s currently going in Yahoo drafts, an eighth round pick isn’t a bad price for a guy who could be in-line for a career year.

Ameer Abdullah, Lions – Abdullah has been rocketing up draft boards with his stellar showing in training camp and the pre-season. We like him more in PPR leagues than standard scoring, as that ensures he should be start-able on a weekly basis.

Melvin Gordon, Chargers – We aren’t in love with Gordon, but barring injury he’s going to get tons of carries.

Mark Ingram, Saints – Ingram is similar to Stewart, as it finally seems like he’s in line for a starter’s workload over the entire season. His average draft price is a little high for our liking (39.2), but the opportunity is there for Ingram to have his best season in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE.

Tier-6 = Solid, Yet Uninspiring #2s

J.Forsett, BAL

L.Miller, MIA

A.Ellington, ARI

A.Morris, WAS

F.Gore, IND

            It’s a miracle Frank Gore makes it into this tier, but if Ahmad Bradshaw could be a PPR monster while healthy in 2014, why can’t Gore do the same this year? Justin Forsett can be bumped up a tier in PPR leagues, as he’s likely to see a drop in carries couple with a heavy up-tick in receptions with Marc Trestman as the offensive coordinator. Arizona’s improved offensive line gives Andre Ellington some decent buy-low potential.

Tier-7 = PPR Gold

C.Spiller, NO

S.Vereen, NYG

G.Bernard, CIN

            These three will be able to start in PPR leagues every week, which is super valuable if you find yourself playing in a league with 12-teams or more. Spiller and Bernard could deliver standard league value if they are forced into feature back roles.

Tier-8 = Low-End #2s

C.Ivory, NYJ

D.Martin, TB

L.Blount, NE

R.Jennings, NYG

J.Bell, DET

            If you draft Le’Veon Bell, one of these guys should be drafted as your replacement for him the first two weeks of the season. Chris Ivory has looked great during the summer, and has the best chance of this group to deliver consistent weekly value. Rashad Jennings and Joique Bell are starting to look like stay aways as the regular season draws closer.  Doug Martin murdered two of my fantasy rosters last year, but that’ won’t stop me from drafting him late if he’s available in the seventh round.

Tier-9 = Committee Hell

T.Coleman, ATL

D.Freeman, ATL

I.Crowell, CLE

D.Johnson, CLE

D.Cobb, TEN

B.Sankey, TEN

T.Yeldon, JAC

            A couple of guys out of this group will be starting for teams in the fantasy playoffs, but your guess is as good as mine on which ones it will be. Devonta Freeman is the one I like the most out of this group, as his receiving skills should give him the edge on the time-share in Atlanta.

Tier-10 = Rehabbing and Hurt

T.Gurley, STL

A.Foster, HOU

            Gurley is a fun prospect, but the likelihood of him being on a pitch count for most of the year limits his value. Arian Foster is missing at least a month or two, and we don’t like his chances of staying healthy when he returns.

Tier-11 = PPR Bronze

R.Bush, SF

D.Woodhead, SD

            The upside is low, but if you’re in a PPR league and in need of a sub for a bye week, you could do worse.

Tier-12 = Handcuffs

R.Matthews, PHI

T.Mason, STL

A.Williams, NYG

D.Johnson, ARI

A.Blue, HOU

C.Sims, TB

R.Helu, OAK

C.Polk, HOU

D.McFadden, DAL

            If we had to bet on one guy from this group rushing for 1,000 yards in 2015, it would be Andre Williams. You should draft one or two of these backs in the later rounds on the chance they find themselves in a starting role before the end of the season.

When We’re Drafting Them

            We’ll list our rules in bullet points.

-         If No Credentials has a top-4 pick, we are drafting a Tier-1 RB.

-         Le’Veon Bell is the biggest wildcard of the RB group. He should be considered anywhere between 5-10. If you take him, you should plan on using three of your first seven picks on running backs.

-         It would be hard for me to snag one of the Tier-3 backs over a Tier-1 WR, unless I already used a first round pick on a wide out.

-         Unless I end up with Rob Gronkowski, two of my first five picks will definitely be running backs.

-         You should devote the most bench spots to the running back position. RB’s value varies wildly throughout the year, and the more lottery tickets you own, the better chance you have of upgrading another spot on your roster via trade.