2015 Fantasy Football Preview: Wide Receiver

            For years, wide receiver was a second-class citizen to runningbacks in the fantasy football world. Most would go RB-RB with their first two picks before even thinking about adding receivers. 2015 is ushering in a new era, as five wide receivers could conceivably be taken in the first round of a 12-team league. Even more incredibly, one of them isn’t named Calvin Johnson.

Tier-1 = The Elite

A.Brown, PIT

D.Bryant, DAL

D.Thomas, DEN

J.Jones, ATL

O.Beckham Jr., NYG

            In terms of per-game production, this group is head and shoulders above the rest of wide receiver field. It’s not necessarily that these guys have the highest ceilings, but their high floors make them the most reliable wide receivers in fantasy. All five are quarterback proof, and can be taken anywhere from the middle of the first round through the early second. We’re not as high on Beckham Jr. as most are due to his sketchy hamstrings (already causing issues in training camp) and the likelihood of statistical regression from his staggering second half performance in 2014.

Tier-2 = Solid #1s

C.Johnson, DET

A.Jeffrey, CHI

A.Green, CIN

J.Nelson, GB

R.Cobb, GB

M.Evans, TB

T.Hilton, IND

            Tier-2 isn’t far off of the first group, but a few question marks make them slightly riskier propositions. Of this group, Mike Evans has the best chance to leap into Tier-1 if Jameis Winston can be relatively functional under center for Tampa Bay. If you can somehow nab two receivers from the top-2 tiers, you’re in business.

Tier-3 = Serious Upside

J.Matthews, PHI

B.Cooks, NO

D.Hopkins, HOU

K.Benjamin, CAR

S.Watkins, BUF

            There is risk here, but also some serious profit potential in Tier-3. DeAndre Hopkins delivered a 1,200 yard season last year, and both Cooks and Watkins were on pace to do it before missing time with injuries. Jordan Matthews will move into a featured role in the Eagles offense with Jeremy Maclin out of town. Of the wide receivers, this tier has the best chance of deciding who wins your league. It’s a shame Kelvin Benjamin went down with a torn ACL, as there is no one on Carolina’s roster to fill even half of his expected production. 
  

Tier-4 = Solid #2s, Elite #3s

K.Allen, SD

E.Sanders, DEN

A.Johnson, IND

B.Marshall, NYJ

G.Tate, DET

C.Johnson, MIN

V.Jackson, TB

D.Jackson, WAS

J.Maclin, KC

            There are numbers to be had here, but the ceilings are low enough that this mostly veteran group is less desirable to No Credentials than the previous tier of youngsters. Keenan Allen has stated publicly he is in much better shape this off-season, and presents the best oppurtunity for top-10 production from this group. Charles Johnson has the most raw talent, but will likely be limited by a run-heavy Vikings offense.

Tier-5 = Assorted Range of Outcomes

J.Edelman, NE

A.Cooper, OAK

A.Robinson, JAC

T.Smith, SF

M.Bryant, PIT

P.Garcon, WAS

S.Smith Sr., BAL

M.Colston, NO

P.Harvin, BUF

K.Wright, TEN

M.Wallace, MIN

B.LaFell, NE

            Julian Edelman would be solidly in Tier-4 if not for Tom Brady’s suspension. In PPR leagues, you should still bump him up a group even if Brady’s suspension holds. Ideally you shouldn’t be relying on any of these receivers as a weekly starter, but if forced to do so you should draft two or three from this tier to give yourself a better chance of maximizing weekly match-ups.

Tier-6 = Overpriced Brand Names

R.White, ATL

L.Fitzgerald, ARI

E.Decker, NYJ

A.Boldin, SF

V.Cruz, NYG

            The name of the tier pretty much says it all. We’re not reaching for anyone out of this group, unless it’s in the thirteenth round of a draft or at the cost of $1 in an auction.

Tier-7 = Lottery Tickets

M.Jones, CIN

K.Britt, STL

R.Randle, NYG

S.Johnson, SD

M.Floyd, ARI

J.Landry, MIA

D.Adams, GB

T.Williams, DAL

J.Brown, ARI

J.Hunter, TEN

D.Baldwin, SEA

N.Toon, NO

A.Hurns, JAC

R.Woods, BUF

N.Agholer, PHI

K.Stills, MIA

D.Parker, MIN

B.Perriman, BAL

C.Latimer, DEN

D.Moncrief, IND

C.Matthews, SEA

M.Wheaton, PIT

            Here is the list of guys you should be looking at late in your draft or auction instead of using a tenth round pick on a kicker. Most of the guys listed here are either an injury or solid quarterback play away from having plenty of opportunities to put up numbers.

Tier-8 = Bye Week Subs

M.Crabtree, OAK

C.Shorts III, HOU

E.Royal, CHI

D.Bowe, CLE

B.Quick, STL

M.Floyd, SD

M.Sanu, CIN

S.Bailey, STL

G.Jennings, MIA

            I guarantee when one or two of your receivers is on a bye week, one of these guys will be on the waiver wire to fill in if needed.

Tier-9 = Joe Dirt

C.Beasley, DAL

            We love Cole Beasley here at No Credentials, and even if we would never in a million years waste a fantasy pick on him, we had to give him his own tier.

When to Draft Wide Receivers

            Wide Receiver has plenty of depth, so other than quarterback, it will be the hardest position to screw up on your fantasy roster. The current average draft prices give you a high probability of ending up with a Tier-1 or 2 receiver, a Tier-3 receiver, and a Tier-4 receiver as your starting trio. If you’re picking late in the first round in a 12-team league, it’s highly likely you could pair Demaryius Thomas with Julio Jones (I like the sound of that duo in a PPR league). The confidence you have in your starters will determine how many backup receivers you draft. A good rule of thumb is to only spend two bench spots on receivers, and save as many as possible for running backs. Ultimately, it will be hard for you not to have three quality receivers, but when you take them will impact the value you get from the other positions on your roster.