2015 Fantasy Football Preview: Wide Receiver

            For years, wide receiver was a second-class citizen to runningbacks in the fantasy football world. Most would go RB-RB with their first two picks before even thinking about adding receivers. 2015 is ushering in a new era, as five wide receivers could conceivably be taken in the first round of a 12-team league. Even more incredibly, one of them isn’t named Calvin Johnson.

Tier-1 = The Elite

A.Brown, PIT

D.Bryant, DAL

D.Thomas, DEN

J.Jones, ATL

O.Beckham Jr., NYG

            In terms of per-game production, this group is head and shoulders above the rest of wide receiver field. It’s not necessarily that these guys have the highest ceilings, but their high floors make them the most reliable wide receivers in fantasy. All five are quarterback proof, and can be taken anywhere from the middle of the first round through the early second. We’re not as high on Beckham Jr. as most are due to his sketchy hamstrings (already causing issues in training camp) and the likelihood of statistical regression from his staggering second half performance in 2014.

Tier-2 = Solid #1s

C.Johnson, DET

A.Jeffrey, CHI

A.Green, CIN

J.Nelson, GB

R.Cobb, GB

M.Evans, TB

T.Hilton, IND

            Tier-2 isn’t far off of the first group, but a few question marks make them slightly riskier propositions. Of this group, Mike Evans has the best chance to leap into Tier-1 if Jameis Winston can be relatively functional under center for Tampa Bay. If you can somehow nab two receivers from the top-2 tiers, you’re in business.

Tier-3 = Serious Upside

J.Matthews, PHI

B.Cooks, NO

D.Hopkins, HOU

K.Benjamin, CAR

S.Watkins, BUF

            There is risk here, but also some serious profit potential in Tier-3. DeAndre Hopkins delivered a 1,200 yard season last year, and both Cooks and Watkins were on pace to do it before missing time with injuries. Jordan Matthews will move into a featured role in the Eagles offense with Jeremy Maclin out of town. Of the wide receivers, this tier has the best chance of deciding who wins your league. It’s a shame Kelvin Benjamin went down with a torn ACL, as there is no one on Carolina’s roster to fill even half of his expected production. 
  

Tier-4 = Solid #2s, Elite #3s

K.Allen, SD

E.Sanders, DEN

A.Johnson, IND

B.Marshall, NYJ

G.Tate, DET

C.Johnson, MIN

V.Jackson, TB

D.Jackson, WAS

J.Maclin, KC

            There are numbers to be had here, but the ceilings are low enough that this mostly veteran group is less desirable to No Credentials than the previous tier of youngsters. Keenan Allen has stated publicly he is in much better shape this off-season, and presents the best oppurtunity for top-10 production from this group. Charles Johnson has the most raw talent, but will likely be limited by a run-heavy Vikings offense.

Tier-5 = Assorted Range of Outcomes

J.Edelman, NE

A.Cooper, OAK

A.Robinson, JAC

T.Smith, SF

M.Bryant, PIT

P.Garcon, WAS

S.Smith Sr., BAL

M.Colston, NO

P.Harvin, BUF

K.Wright, TEN

M.Wallace, MIN

B.LaFell, NE

            Julian Edelman would be solidly in Tier-4 if not for Tom Brady’s suspension. In PPR leagues, you should still bump him up a group even if Brady’s suspension holds. Ideally you shouldn’t be relying on any of these receivers as a weekly starter, but if forced to do so you should draft two or three from this tier to give yourself a better chance of maximizing weekly match-ups.

Tier-6 = Overpriced Brand Names

R.White, ATL

L.Fitzgerald, ARI

E.Decker, NYJ

A.Boldin, SF

V.Cruz, NYG

            The name of the tier pretty much says it all. We’re not reaching for anyone out of this group, unless it’s in the thirteenth round of a draft or at the cost of $1 in an auction.

Tier-7 = Lottery Tickets

M.Jones, CIN

K.Britt, STL

R.Randle, NYG

S.Johnson, SD

M.Floyd, ARI

J.Landry, MIA

D.Adams, GB

T.Williams, DAL

J.Brown, ARI

J.Hunter, TEN

D.Baldwin, SEA

N.Toon, NO

A.Hurns, JAC

R.Woods, BUF

N.Agholer, PHI

K.Stills, MIA

D.Parker, MIN

B.Perriman, BAL

C.Latimer, DEN

D.Moncrief, IND

C.Matthews, SEA

M.Wheaton, PIT

            Here is the list of guys you should be looking at late in your draft or auction instead of using a tenth round pick on a kicker. Most of the guys listed here are either an injury or solid quarterback play away from having plenty of opportunities to put up numbers.

Tier-8 = Bye Week Subs

M.Crabtree, OAK

C.Shorts III, HOU

E.Royal, CHI

D.Bowe, CLE

B.Quick, STL

M.Floyd, SD

M.Sanu, CIN

S.Bailey, STL

G.Jennings, MIA

            I guarantee when one or two of your receivers is on a bye week, one of these guys will be on the waiver wire to fill in if needed.

Tier-9 = Joe Dirt

C.Beasley, DAL

            We love Cole Beasley here at No Credentials, and even if we would never in a million years waste a fantasy pick on him, we had to give him his own tier.

When to Draft Wide Receivers

            Wide Receiver has plenty of depth, so other than quarterback, it will be the hardest position to screw up on your fantasy roster. The current average draft prices give you a high probability of ending up with a Tier-1 or 2 receiver, a Tier-3 receiver, and a Tier-4 receiver as your starting trio. If you’re picking late in the first round in a 12-team league, it’s highly likely you could pair Demaryius Thomas with Julio Jones (I like the sound of that duo in a PPR league). The confidence you have in your starters will determine how many backup receivers you draft. A good rule of thumb is to only spend two bench spots on receivers, and save as many as possible for running backs. Ultimately, it will be hard for you not to have three quality receivers, but when you take them will impact the value you get from the other positions on your roster.

2014 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Ranks

            We’ve already taken a look at quarterbacks and runningbacks, and now it’s time to dive into the deepest position in fantasy football.

 



Tier 1 = Megatron

C.Johnson, DET

            The only thing that robbed Megatron of another 100-catch campaign was his health last season. Johnson isn’t miles ahead of the rest of his peers like he was a year ago going into drafts, but he still deserves his own tier. If you are in a PPR league, he can go fifth or later.

Tier-2 = Next Best Things

D.Thomas, DEN

A.Green, CIN

D.Bryant, DAL

            These three were the best of Tier-2 last season, and the only ones to maintain their standing. In redraft leagues, none of these guys will slip to the third round, which means I won’t be landing any Tier-2 receivers.

Tier-3 = Solid Number Ones

J.Jones, ATL

A.Brown, PIT

B.Marshall, CHI

A.Jeffrey, CHI

R.Cobb, GB

K.Allen, SD

J.Nelson, GB

            Barring unexpected developments, my first wide receiver will come from this group. If Julio Jones and Randall Cobb bounce back from injury plagued 2013 campaigns, they will be the top point producers in Tier-3.

Tier-4 = High-End Twos

V.Jackson, TB

L.Fitzgerald, ARI

W.Welker, DEN

M.Crabtree, SF

A.Johnson, HOU

P.Garcon, WAS

V.Cruz, NYG

            Whether it’s being injury prone, old, or tied to a shaky quarterback situation, this is the first group or receivers that will give you mild indigestion when you’re thinking about picking them. Michael Crabtree could be in line for a career year if he can finally get a full season with Colin Kaepernick as his quarterback.

Tier-5 = League Swingers

T.Hilton, IND

P.Harvin, SEA

J.Edelman, NE

T.Smith, BAL

D.Jackson, WAS

M.Floyd, ARI

C.Patterson, MIN

M.Wallace, MIA

K.Wright, TEN

M.Colston, NO

R.White, ATL

            With the widest gap between their floors and their ceilings, this group of receivers will play a large role in who wins fantasy leagues this year. Hilton is probably the safest, Patterson is the most intriguing (although at his current draft price, I’m not investing in an unproven talent who will be relying on a rookie or Christian Ponder to get him the ball), and Percy Harvin has the highest ceiling.

Tier-6 = Lottery Tickets

E.Sanders, DEN

S.Watkins, BUF

A.Dobson, NE

D.Bowe, KC

E.Decker, NYJ

R.Wayne, IND

T.Williams, DAL

R.Randle, NYG

M.Evans, TB

H.Nicks, IND

J.Maclin, PHI

B.Cooks, NO

R.Cooper, PHI

A.Boldin, SF

B.Hartline, MIA

J.Jones, OAK

D.Amendola, NE

S.Smith, BAL

D.Hopkins, HOU

S.Johnson, SF

G.Tate, DET

C.Shorts, JAC

M.Jones, CIN

T.Austin, STL

            If you’re participating in a 12-team league, at least seven folks are going to be drafting one of these guys as their third wide receiver. Wading through this crop of veterans returning from injury (Reggie Wayne, Jeremy Maclin), players in new places (Eric Decker, Hakeem Nicks, Emmanuel Sanders, Steve Smith), sophomores looking to breakout (Tavon Austin, DeAndre Hopkins, Aaron Dobson, Terrance Williams), and rookies (Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Brandon Cooks) is a risky proposition. If you find yourself in that precarious position, you should make it a point to draft as many of these guys as possible. Josh Gordon was squarely in this group last season, and he ended up being the most productive wide receiver on a per game basis. The more of these guys you draft, the likelier it is that you have a valuable starter or trade chip. Aaron Dobson is our bet to deliver the best numbers out of this massive group.  

Tier-7 = Bye Week Subs, Via Your Bench

J.Hunter, TEN

J.Boykin, GB

M.Wheaton, PIT

K.Stills, NO

M.Austin, CLE

H.Douglas, ATL

M.Williams, BUF

G.Jennings, MIN

K.Benjamin, CAR

J.Matthews, PHI

            We don’t forecast any of these guys delivering consistent production on a weekly basis, but hopefully when you have to start one of them you get lucky.

Tier-8 = Bye Week Subs, Via Waivers

N.Washington, TEN

K.Thompkins, NE

J.Cotchery, CAR

N.Buerlson, CLE

R.Woods, BUF

R.Streeter, OAK

M.Brown, BAL

D.Baldwin, SEA

D.Rogers, IND

O.Beckham, NYG

B.Lafell, NE

D.Moore, OAK

            These will likely be the names you have to dig through if you are forced to pick up a free agent to cover a bye. You shouldn’t be drafting anyone from this group.

Conclusion = With the receiver pool getting deeper and deeper with each passing season, the importance of landing top shelf wide receivers becomes less and less. Unless I feel really good about the runningbacks that are going to be available in round 3, there’s no way I’m landing a Megatron or a Tier-2 receiver. Jimmy Graham would be a consideration before any wide receiver (more on him in our next post). In a world where Jimmy Graham wasn’t on my team, I’m drafting three straight receivers between rounds 3 and 5, which hopefully means I won’t be purchasing any lottery tickets.