2015 Fantasy Football Preview: Wide Receiver

            For years, wide receiver was a second-class citizen to runningbacks in the fantasy football world. Most would go RB-RB with their first two picks before even thinking about adding receivers. 2015 is ushering in a new era, as five wide receivers could conceivably be taken in the first round of a 12-team league. Even more incredibly, one of them isn’t named Calvin Johnson.

Tier-1 = The Elite

A.Brown, PIT

D.Bryant, DAL

D.Thomas, DEN

J.Jones, ATL

O.Beckham Jr., NYG

            In terms of per-game production, this group is head and shoulders above the rest of wide receiver field. It’s not necessarily that these guys have the highest ceilings, but their high floors make them the most reliable wide receivers in fantasy. All five are quarterback proof, and can be taken anywhere from the middle of the first round through the early second. We’re not as high on Beckham Jr. as most are due to his sketchy hamstrings (already causing issues in training camp) and the likelihood of statistical regression from his staggering second half performance in 2014.

Tier-2 = Solid #1s

C.Johnson, DET

A.Jeffrey, CHI

A.Green, CIN

J.Nelson, GB

R.Cobb, GB

M.Evans, TB

T.Hilton, IND

            Tier-2 isn’t far off of the first group, but a few question marks make them slightly riskier propositions. Of this group, Mike Evans has the best chance to leap into Tier-1 if Jameis Winston can be relatively functional under center for Tampa Bay. If you can somehow nab two receivers from the top-2 tiers, you’re in business.

Tier-3 = Serious Upside

J.Matthews, PHI

B.Cooks, NO

D.Hopkins, HOU

K.Benjamin, CAR

S.Watkins, BUF

            There is risk here, but also some serious profit potential in Tier-3. DeAndre Hopkins delivered a 1,200 yard season last year, and both Cooks and Watkins were on pace to do it before missing time with injuries. Jordan Matthews will move into a featured role in the Eagles offense with Jeremy Maclin out of town. Of the wide receivers, this tier has the best chance of deciding who wins your league. It’s a shame Kelvin Benjamin went down with a torn ACL, as there is no one on Carolina’s roster to fill even half of his expected production. 
  

Tier-4 = Solid #2s, Elite #3s

K.Allen, SD

E.Sanders, DEN

A.Johnson, IND

B.Marshall, NYJ

G.Tate, DET

C.Johnson, MIN

V.Jackson, TB

D.Jackson, WAS

J.Maclin, KC

            There are numbers to be had here, but the ceilings are low enough that this mostly veteran group is less desirable to No Credentials than the previous tier of youngsters. Keenan Allen has stated publicly he is in much better shape this off-season, and presents the best oppurtunity for top-10 production from this group. Charles Johnson has the most raw talent, but will likely be limited by a run-heavy Vikings offense.

Tier-5 = Assorted Range of Outcomes

J.Edelman, NE

A.Cooper, OAK

A.Robinson, JAC

T.Smith, SF

M.Bryant, PIT

P.Garcon, WAS

S.Smith Sr., BAL

M.Colston, NO

P.Harvin, BUF

K.Wright, TEN

M.Wallace, MIN

B.LaFell, NE

            Julian Edelman would be solidly in Tier-4 if not for Tom Brady’s suspension. In PPR leagues, you should still bump him up a group even if Brady’s suspension holds. Ideally you shouldn’t be relying on any of these receivers as a weekly starter, but if forced to do so you should draft two or three from this tier to give yourself a better chance of maximizing weekly match-ups.

Tier-6 = Overpriced Brand Names

R.White, ATL

L.Fitzgerald, ARI

E.Decker, NYJ

A.Boldin, SF

V.Cruz, NYG

            The name of the tier pretty much says it all. We’re not reaching for anyone out of this group, unless it’s in the thirteenth round of a draft or at the cost of $1 in an auction.

Tier-7 = Lottery Tickets

M.Jones, CIN

K.Britt, STL

R.Randle, NYG

S.Johnson, SD

M.Floyd, ARI

J.Landry, MIA

D.Adams, GB

T.Williams, DAL

J.Brown, ARI

J.Hunter, TEN

D.Baldwin, SEA

N.Toon, NO

A.Hurns, JAC

R.Woods, BUF

N.Agholer, PHI

K.Stills, MIA

D.Parker, MIN

B.Perriman, BAL

C.Latimer, DEN

D.Moncrief, IND

C.Matthews, SEA

M.Wheaton, PIT

            Here is the list of guys you should be looking at late in your draft or auction instead of using a tenth round pick on a kicker. Most of the guys listed here are either an injury or solid quarterback play away from having plenty of opportunities to put up numbers.

Tier-8 = Bye Week Subs

M.Crabtree, OAK

C.Shorts III, HOU

E.Royal, CHI

D.Bowe, CLE

B.Quick, STL

M.Floyd, SD

M.Sanu, CIN

S.Bailey, STL

G.Jennings, MIA

            I guarantee when one or two of your receivers is on a bye week, one of these guys will be on the waiver wire to fill in if needed.

Tier-9 = Joe Dirt

C.Beasley, DAL

            We love Cole Beasley here at No Credentials, and even if we would never in a million years waste a fantasy pick on him, we had to give him his own tier.

When to Draft Wide Receivers

            Wide Receiver has plenty of depth, so other than quarterback, it will be the hardest position to screw up on your fantasy roster. The current average draft prices give you a high probability of ending up with a Tier-1 or 2 receiver, a Tier-3 receiver, and a Tier-4 receiver as your starting trio. If you’re picking late in the first round in a 12-team league, it’s highly likely you could pair Demaryius Thomas with Julio Jones (I like the sound of that duo in a PPR league). The confidence you have in your starters will determine how many backup receivers you draft. A good rule of thumb is to only spend two bench spots on receivers, and save as many as possible for running backs. Ultimately, it will be hard for you not to have three quality receivers, but when you take them will impact the value you get from the other positions on your roster.

Ebola Was Overrated, and Other Things About 2014

            A couple of you have asked where No Credentials has been the last few months. We regret the lack of activity, but it can be chalked up to multiple factors.

1. I have a new job, and the schedule I work doesn’t fit my previous pattern of posting.
2. My son is a terrorist.
3. Okay my son isn’t really a terrorist, but he’s an energetic four year old who never fails to wake up early and does everything in his power to stay up as late as possible. I love him dearly, but he wears my wife and I out daily.
4. The Dallas Cowboys have done pretty well since we’ve gone mute, so I haven’t wanted to disrupt the cosmic workings of the universe.
5. I’m pretty damn lazy.

         With all that said, we want to hand out some fake awards to recap the year. These are things I could’ve posted about if I had any form of drive or motivation to do so.

Best Play = Odell Beckham’s Catch Against the Cowboys

            In a vacuum, Beckham’s Internet-breaking grab was the most athletic thing I’ve ever seen on a football field.

            However, folks need to pump the brakes on calling it the greatest catch in the history of the NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. The Giants didn’t even win the game, and the team sputtered to a 6-10 finish. For our money, David Tyree’s Helmet Catch was the greatest grab in NFL history. Let’s punch Patriots’ fans in the stomach by posting the video of it.

Honorable Mention = Marshawn Lynch going ham on the Cardinals.

Most Overrated = Ebola’s Impact on the United States

            When Ebola first surfaced on American soil, I had conversations with people who genuinely believed the government was behind the outbreak in an attempt to eliminate a large part of the population. I’m guessing these same people bought a lot of canned vegetables in 2012.

(EDITORS NOTE: We understand that Ebola is a serious disease that is ravaging Africa)

Honorable Mention = Kirk Cousins (holy shit he sucks. Cousins owes me a refund for the money I wagered on the Deadskins against the Giants in Week 4)

Best Kids Show = Henry Danger

            We were all in on Nickelodeon’s superhero show the first time Captain Man hit on Henry’s mom.

No Credentials Video Game of the Year = Clash of Clans

            I’m not proud of it.

Honorable Mention = Candy Crush (I’m not proud of that either)

Most Memorable Bad Team = Cleveland Browns

            In the AP Report on Josh Gordon’s suspension last week, the words “the team was unable to locate Gordon and quarterback Johnny Manziel Friday night” were actually printed. Somehow, a terrible Kevin Costner movie was the lone highlight of 2014 for the Cleveland Browns.

Honorable Mention = Sacramento Kings (Boogie!!!)

Team of the Year = 2013-14 San Antonio Spurs

            How they were so easily able to dismantle the Miami Heat in the Finals, and put an end to the “Big Two featuring a Broken Down Dwyane Wade” era, earns San Antonio team of the year status.

Honorable Mention = 2013-14 Seattle Seahawks, 2014 Boston Red Sox (just kidding!)

The Next Great One = Anthony Davis

            The Brow is improving year by year at a rate never seen in the NBA before. He’s going to be great on the Lakers in two years.

Honorable Mention = Andrew Luck

Most Ignorant = NASCAR Fans

            NASCAR fans will literally bitch about anything. It’s the worst fan base in sports.

League of the Year = NBA

            It was a great year for the NBA for a multitude of reasons. Adam Silver took over as the new commish, and immediately became the most powerful leader in sports when he removed Donald Sterling from the Clippers. We already discussed the Spurs, whose title run was fueled by incredible passing from every spot on the floor. The league goes into 2015 with the most teams having a realistic chance at a title in the history of the NBA. It is a great time to be a fan of The Association.

Film of the Year = The Lego Movie

            If you don’t have kids, I fully advise you to rent one for a day so you don’t feel weird watching The Lego Movie.

Most Valuable Player = Madison Bumgarner

            He’ll probably need Tommy John Surgery in six months, but who cares? Bumgarner was amazing in carrying the Giants to their third title in five years.

            We’ll try to write more as we enter 2015. NFL picks will be back for the Wildcard Round Friday. Have a safe and Happy New Years everyone (don’t drive drunk kids).