The start of the NBA season is upon us, and No Credentials has reviewed
every roster. We’ve identified the championship contenders, the middle of the
road squads, and the clubs that should try to go 0-82. For each team, we list
each player that fits the following criteria.
Franchise Players = Guys that could be one of the two best
players on a championship contending team (example: Lebron James).
Fringe Stars = Guys that will put up numbers on a bad team,
but ideally, should be the third or fourth offensive option. This category also
covers elite defensive specialists and young players who haven’t made the leap
yet to franchise status (examples = Ty Lawson, Larry Sanders, Bradley Beal).
Supporting Cast = Guys that are capable of filling out an
NBA rotation. If you’re relying on them too much, good luck in the draft
lottery (example = Avery Bradley).
First Round Rookies = Rookies that will be on NBA rosters
this season. We didn’t include players that are stashed in Europe.
Without further ado, here are 6,500 words about NBA
basketball.
Riggin For Wiggins
30. Phoenix Suns
Franchise Players = None
Fringe Stars = PG Eric Bledsoe
Supporting Cast = PG Goran Dragic, C Emeka Okafor, PF
Channing Frye
First Round Rookies = C Alex Len (1-5, Maryland)
Outlook = Phoenix is second in line for the “Riggins
for Wiggins” sweepstakes, but unlike Philadelphia, it looks like the Suns have
actually been trying to construct a competitive basketball team. Eric Bledsoe
will finally have a crack at significant playing time, but it’s hard to see him
and Goran Dragic coexisting in the same back court. It would make a ton of
sense for Dragic to be shipped elsewhere. Marcin Gortat was the most valuable
trade chip Phoenix had (his contract expires at the end of the season), and Phoenix
didn’t wait long to ship him out of town. Emeka Okafor was acquired mostly
because of his huge expiring contract, but if he’s able to return by season’s
end could be a decent mentor for Alex Len. The Suns are primed to have a ton of
ping balls in the 2014 Draft Lottery.
29. Philadelphia 76ers
Franchise Players = None
Fringe Stars = SF Thaddeus Young
Supporting Cast = SG Evan Turner, C Spencer Hawes, SG
Jason Richardson
First Round Rookies = C Nerlens Noel (1-6, Kentucky,
traded from Pelicans), PG Michael Carter-Williams (Syracuse, 1-11)
Outlook = 2013-14 is going to be pretty atrocious for
the 76ers, but that is by design. They’ve blown the roster up in an effort to
get as many young assets as possible. Nerlens Noel was the perfect acquisition
for this sort of plan, as it’s unlikely he sees the court until sometime after
New Years Day. Even better, New Orleans sent their 2014 first round pick along
with Noel for the rights to Jrue Holliday, meaning they could have two
ping-pong balls in the “Riggins for Wiggins” sweepstakes (more on New Orleans
later). They could be trotting four lottery picks from back-to-back drafts this
time next year. No team has a better five-year outlook than the Philadelphia
76ers, so remember that Philly fans when they finish 15-67 this year.
28. Charlotte Bobcats
Franchise Players = None
Fringe Stars = C Al Jefferson
Supporting Cast = SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, PG Kemba
Walker, SG Gerald Henderson, SG Ben Gordon, PF Bismack Biyombo
First Round Rookies = PF Cody Zeller (1-4, Indiana)
Outlook = There’s a slight chance Charlotte isn’t
putrid this season. Al Jefferson won’t play a lick of defense, but he’s the
first low-post scorer the Bobcats have ever had. Kemba Walker was a pleasant
surprise last season, but I still would prefer to see him in a sixth man role
on a playoff team. Kidd-Gilchrist showed flashes last spring, and when healthy,
Gerald Henderson is capable of filling the stat sheet. Ben Gordon has a very
valuable $13 million expiring contract, meaning if the Bobcats play their cards
right, they could be able to scoop up some extra draft picks from a club
looking for salary cap relief. Charlotte will still have a great chance at the
number one overall pick, but at least they finally have some direction.
27. Utah Jazz
Franchise Players = None
Fringe Stars = PF Derrick Favors
Supporting Cast = SF Gordon Hayward, C Enes Kanter, SG
Alec Burks, PF Marvin Williams
First Round Rookies = PG Trey Burke (1-9, Michigan,
traded from Timberwolves)
Outlook = For the first time since immediately
following the end of the Stockton-Malone era, the Jazz will not be in playoff
contention this season. Part of that is by design, as they let Al Jefferson and
Paul Millsap walk without receiving anything in return. More playing time for
Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter is a good thing, as both have the look of
quality NBA big men. Gordon Hayward is a solid scorer, but asking him to be the
go-to scorer is ridiculous. Expect a lot of 4-18s out of Utah’s Great White
Hope. Trey Burke has the talent to eventually be a Mike Conley-like point guard
for the Jazz.
26. Boston Celtics
Franchise Players = PG Rajon Rondo
Fringe Stars = SF Jeff Green
Supporting Cast = PG Avery Bradley, SG MarShon Brooks, PF
Jared Sullinger, SF Gerald Wallace, PF Kris Humphries, SG Courtney Lee, PF
Brandon Bass
First Round Rookies = PF Kelly Olynyk (1-13, Gonzaga,
traded from Mavericks)
Outlook = I’ve flip-flopped 20 times on whether or
not the Celtics will be terrible or mediocre. I guess we’ll split the
difference and predict they will be bad. Until Rajon Rondo returns, it’s hard
to envision how this team is going to score on a consistent basis. Jeff Green
is the obvious first option, but has been wildly inconsistent throughout his
NBA career, and shown no desire in being the star attraction. It looks like
December or January is the time when a Rondo season debut is a possibility.
What they do with Rondo will be very interesting, as he’s one of the few
superstars in the league on a reasonable contract. You could argue either way,
but No Credentials vote is to keep him. If the ping-pong balls hit right, Rondo
paired with one of the studs from next years draft could immediately return the
Celtics to relevance.
25. Orlando Magic
Franchise Players = None
Fringe Stars = C Nikola Vucevic
Supporting Cast = SF Tobias Harris, SG Arron Afflalo, PG
Jameer Nelson, SF Hedo Turkoglu, PF Glen Davis
First Round Rookies = SG Victor Oladipo (1-2, Indiana)
Outlook = Orlando had a great off-season in the sense
that they locked up a valuable piece, added a great young building block in the
draft, but still are shitty enough that they’ll end up with a great draft pick
next year. Nikola Vucevic is a rebounding machine that with an improved
offensive game could eventually be a top-3 center in the NBA. Oladipo is a
hyper active guard who at the very least will be a defensive stopper. Tobias
Harris was the steal of last year’s trade deadline (he was the centerpiece in
Milwaukee’s package for J.J. Reddick), and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him
average 18 per game. In terms of expiring contracts, Jameer Nelson is the most
valuable one, as he represents $8 million coming off the books next summer.
He’s a point guard with playoff experience, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see
him shipped to a contender in February.
Too Good For Wiggins, Too Shitty For the Playoffs
24. Sacramento Kings
Franchise Players = C DeMarcus Cousins
Fringe Stars = None
Supporting Cast = PG Greivis Vasquez, SG Marcus Thornton,
PG Isaiah Thomas PF Carl Landry, PF Patrick Patterson, SF John Salmons, PF
Chuck Hayes, PF Jason Thompson
First Round Rookies = SG Ben McLemore (1-7, Kansas)
Outlook = Six months ago it appeared to be inevitable
that the Kings would end up relocating to Seattle, but miraculously
California’s state capital was able to keep it’s one professional sports
franchise. Unfortunately most of the same roster from a year ago is still
intact. At least black hole Tyreke Evans has been moved to New Orleans, meaning
that this team will officially run through DeMarcus Cousins. Whether that is a
good or bad thing will depend entirely on if his head is screwed on straight.
Besides Boogie, there’s a bunch of dudes you’d love to have coming off your
bench surrounding him. Marcus Thornton has shown flashes of offensive
brilliance, but is not nearly efficient enough to be your most reliable
perimeter scorer (playoff teams should be checking in on him around the trade
deadline. The guy could single-handedly swing a playoff game or two if he gets
hot). How they distribute the minutes between Vasquez and Thomas will be
interesting, as there’s no way strategically that they can be on the floor at
the same time. Ben McLemore has the talent to eventually be a top-10 two-guard,
but he looks like a guy that won’t fully show it in year one.
23. Atlanta Hawks
Franchise Players = C Al Horford
Fringe Stars = PF Paul Millsap, PG Jeff Teague
Supporting Cast = SG Louis Williams, SG Kyle Korver, PF
Elton Brand
First Round Rookies = PG Dennis Schroeder (1-17, Germany)
Outlook = Atlanta’s roster has basically been built
around the premise of shedding salary to have money for free agency next
season, which is ironic because elite free agents never sign with the Hawks. It
wouldn’t be shocking to see them make a blockbuster trade in an effort to
acquire a star caliber player (Rudy Gay anyone?). As for what is on the roster,
the starting group is decent enough, but the bench leaves a lot to be desired.
Al Horford and Paul Millsap will be one of the better low post pairings the NBA
has to offer, but it’s tough to see how any offense is going to be initiated
without Josh Smith. Barring a major trade, the Hawks will find themselves in
the lottery for the first time in many years.
22. Los Angeles Lakers
Franchise Players = SG Kobe Bryant, PF Pau Gasol
Fringe Stars = None
Supporting Cast = PG Steve Nash, C Chris Kaman, SG Nick
Young, PG Steve Blake, SG Jodie Meeks, C Jordan Hill
First Round Rookies = None
Outlook = Not since the 2004-05 season (the year Shaq
was traded to Miami) have the Lakers been in such a state of flux. Dwight
Howard became the first marquee Lakers free agent to bolt for another
franchise. Kobe’s recovery from a torn Achilles’ is the greatest unknown, as
the question of when he will actually play has to be answered before we can see
what level he can compete at. A fully healthy Bryant would have a hard time
dragging this group into the playoffs. Pau Gasol and Steve Nash are the two
Lakers whose situation actually improved from a year ago. Gasol will return to
his rightful spot in the post, and Nash-Gasol pick-and-rolls have the chance to
be devastating. Pau is a free agent after the season and could fetch himself
one more max contract if he plays to his potential. The bench isn’t quite as
atrocious as last season, but the Lakers are still one of the shallowest clubs
in the NBA. Chris Kaman will make an impact when he’s healthy, and Nick Young
is one of the more infamous irrational confidence guys the league has to offer.
It’s going to be a rough year in Laker-land, but at least
they know the NBA
will rig the 2014 Draft Lottery so they end up with Andrew Wiggins they’ll
have a top-10 pick in a loaded draft.
21. Denver Nuggets
Franchise Players = None
Fringe Stars = PG Ty Lawson, PF Kenneth Faried, SF Danilo
Gallinari
Supporting Cast = C JaVale McGee, SG Wilson Chandler, PG
Andre Miller, PF J.J. Hickson, PG Nate Robinson, C Timofey Mozgov, SG Randy
Foye, PF Darrell Arthur
First Round Rookies = None
Outlook = Normally a solid bet for landing somewhere
between the fourth or eighth seed in the Western Conference, this is the year
we see the wheels coming off a bit for the Nuggets. There are a lot of
interesting parts, but figuring out how new coach Brian Shaw doles out minutes
will go a long way in determining if this group can stay in playoff contention.
Danilo Gallinari will miss a large chunk of time at the beginning of the year,
which is a killer to a team that relies so heavily on three-point shooting. Ty
Lawson will have to shoulder a larger scoring load as long as Gallinari is out.
JaVale McGee finally appears to be slated to get regular minutes, but we aren’t
sure if more of McGee is a good thing. When he’s engaged, there are few big men
who impact the game on the defensive end as much as him. We see the Nuggets
sliding out of their usual top-8 finishing spot and ending up in the lottery
next spring.
20. Toronto Raptors
Franchise Players = None
Fringe Stars = SF Rudy Gay, SG DeMar DeRozan, PG Kyle
Lowry,
Supporting Cast = C Jonas Valanciunas, PF Amir Johnson, SF Landry Fields, PF
Austin Daye, SF Steve Novak, PF Tyler Hansbrough, SG Terrance Ross
Rookies = None
Outlook = If you want to make a bet on which NBA team
will brick the most 15-foot jump shots this season, look no further than the
Raptors. Rudy Gay is paid like a franchise player, but has never demonstrated
in his NBA career that he’s capable of carrying one. Kyle Lowry stuffs the stat
sheet, but his difficult personality rubs teammates and coaches the wrong way
on too many occasions. DeMar DeRozan would be best suited as a sixth man, but
he is fantastic and attacking the rim and getting to the foul line. Amir
Johnson has plenty of skills that would benefit a championship caliber team,
but unfortunately he’s buried in Toronto. The greatest wildcard on the Raptors
roster is Jonas Valanciunas. If he makes a leap, the Andrea Bargnani trade will
go down as a brilliant move.
Furiously Battling For the Right to Get Swept in the First Round
19. Milwaukee Bucks
Franchise Players = None
Fringe Stars = C Larry Sanders, SG O.J. Mayo
Supporting Cast = SF Ersan Ilyasova, PG Brandon Knight,
SF Caron Butler, SG Carlos Delfino, PG Gary Neal, PG Luke Ridnour, PF John
Henson
First Round Rookies = SG Giannis Antetokounmpo (1-15,
Europe)
Outlook = There isn’t another team in the NBA with a
weirder assortment of wing players. Gone are Brandon Jennings and Monte Ellis,
and in are O.J. Mayo and a bunch of dudes who are best served coming off the
bench. If nothing else, they do have the chance to roll out a spunky small-ball
lineup. Larry Sanders is slated to receive the largest amount of minutes he’s
ever gotten, but he needs to limit his fouls in order to reach his full
potential. If he does, a defensive player of the year award is within reach. We
also can’t sleep on the Greek rookie who has 36 letters in his last name. Ultimately,
this looks like a group that could finish anywhere between eighth or twelfth in
the Eastern Conference.
18. New Orleans Pelicans
Franchise Players = PF Anthony Davis
Fringe Stars = PG Jrue Holiday, SG Tyreke Evans, SG Eric
Gordon, C Ryan Anderson
Supporting Cast = SG Anthony Morrow, SF Al-Farouq Aminu
First Round Rookies = None
Outlook = What do you get when have an owner who is
demanding to win now, and a general manager desperate to stay employed past
this season? Your 2013-14 New Orleans Pelicans. It would appear on paper that
this team has no depth (in good conscious, we couldn’t list Austin Rivers as a
supporting cast member after his epically abysmal rookie campaign), and very
little defense. However, if their top five players click offensively, watch
out. Many experts are concerned how the Holiday-Evans-Gordon trio will
function. One option would be having Evans or Gordon function as the sixth man.
Evans does have the size needed to play the three, but has never shown in his
Kings’ days that he has any interest in team defense. If Anthony Davis carries
his preseason performance into the regular season campaign, that might not
matter. Davis looks fully prepared to continue his journey of becoming the next
Kevin Garnett. In a year where New Orleans needs to win in order to ensure that
the draft pick they traded to Philadelphia for the rights to Jrue Holiday
doesn’t end up in the lottery, we predict that they will come up just short of
that goal.
17. New York Knicks
Franchise Players = SF Carmelo Anthony
Fringe Stars = C Tyson Chandler, PF Amar’e Stoudemire, SG
J.R. Smith, PG Raymond Felton
Supporting Cast = PF Andrea Bargnani, SF Metta World
Peace, SG Iman Shumpert, PF Kenyon Martin, PG Beno Udrih
First Round Rookies = SG Tim Hardaway Jr. (1-24,
Michigan)
Outlook = You’ll have to look real hard to find an
odder assortment of front court players than what the New York Knicks have
thrown together. Carmelo Anthony thrived when he played the 4 in a small-ball
lineup, but this is a team that employs three capable power forwards already.
The Andrea Bargnani trade adds floor spacing, but if he’s playing center when
Tyson Chandler is on the bench, there is going to be a lay-up line at the other
end of the court. Metta World Peace can guard larger wings, and Iman Shumpert
is an emerging defensive stopper of either guard position, so perhaps the lack
of rim protection can be mitigated. Tyson Chandler, J.R. Smith, and Raymond
Felton all either wore down or fell apart mentally by the end of there second
round series against Indian. Chandler in particular was a mess, and had the
look of a player in serious physical decline. Kenyon Martin does bring some
toughness if Chandler is unable to play to his full potential, but lacks the
size to dominate the boards. New York should treat anything Amar’e Stoudemire
offers this season as a bonus. The Knicks have a bunch of parts, but on paper
we just don’t see them gelling this year in a deeper Eastern Conference.
Wildcards
16. Cleveland Cavaliers
Franchise Players = PG Kyrie Irving, C Andrew Bynum
Fringe Stars = PF Anderson Varejao, PF Tristan Thompson,
PG Jarrett Jack
Supporting Cast = SG Dion Waiters, SG Alonzo Gee, SF Earl
Clark, SG C.J. Miles
First Round Rookies = PF Anthony Bennett (1-1, UNLV), SG
Sergey Karasev (1-19, Russia)
Outlook = If you could guarantee that Kyrie Irving
and Andrew Bynum would be healthy for the majority of the year, you could make
the case that Cleveland would have enough firepower to make an Eastern
Conference Finals run. Unfortunately, it’s more likely that snow will fall in
Hawaii. Kyrie Irving has missed significant time in both of his two NBA seasons
(and for that matter, his only year at Duke), but when he’s on the court he’s
arguably a top-5 scorer in THE NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION. Bynum’s injury
woes are even more problematic. It’s easy to forget that when he’s healthy,
he’s among the top-5 centers in the league. Surrounding these two is a slew of
talented role players. Anderson Varejao is another oft-injured commodity that
is a stat stuffer when on the court. If Bynum shows some reliability, it
wouldn’t be shocking to see Varejao shipped out of town. Tristan Thompson
really came into his own after Varejao went down last year, and Cleveland just
extended him through the 2015 season. He’s a dreadful free-throw shooter but
has the talent to post 10+ boards every night. Dion Waiters is a streaky
shooter who would be best served filling a sixth man role. Jarrett Jack is an
interesting addition, as he gives Cleveland the ability to play Irving off the
ball if need be. It’s hard to see where Anthony Bennett fits into the picture
this year, but long term he has the talent to be a star. Many league experts
think there’s a chance Lebron James returns to the Cavaliers next summer, and
if he does, he’ll have plenty of talent around him. Even if Cleveland is in
playoff contention, don’t be shocked to see them swing deals at the trade
deadline that set them up with more cap space for next year.
15. Washington Wizards
Franchise Players = PG John Wall
Fringe Stars = SG Bradley Beal, PF Nene Hilario, C Marcin
Gortat
Supporting Cast = SF Trevor Ariza, PF Al Harrington, SG
Martell Webster, SF Jan Vesely, SF Josh Childress
First Round Rookies = SF Otto Porter Jr. (1-3,
Georgetown)
Outlook = At first glance, having Washington ranked
this high seems pretty ridiculous, but we’re putting a ton of stock into how
the Wizards played the final two months of last season. John Wall was one of
the top point guards during the league during that stretch (he directly impacted
the championship in the No Credentials Fantasy Basketball League last year),
and Washington reaching their potential hinges largely on him. Bradley Beal is
also a piece of the puzzle. He looked lost to start his rookie year, but really
turned it on after the All-Star break. It isn’t much of a stretch to predict he
will end up as a top-10 shooting guard in the league by the end of the year.
Hilario and Gortat form a formidable defensive pair down low. Washington’s
acquisition of Gortat from Phoenix also allows Nene to move to his more natural
spot at power forward.
There are a slew
of solid bench players here that on any given night can give the Wizards’
offense a jolt. It wouldn’t be fair to expect too much out of Otto Porter Jr.,
as it looks like he will have a similar rookie season to what Michael
Kidd-Gilchrist had last season.
14. Detroit Pistons
Franchise Players = SF Josh Smith
Fringe Stars = PF Greg Monroe, PG Brandon Jennings, C
Andre Drummond
Supporting Cast = PG Rodney Stuckey, SG Kyle Singler, PF
Charlie Villanueva, PG Chauncey Billups
First Round Rookies = SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (1-8,
Georgia)
Outlook = Detroit has been so bad the last few years
that it’s hard to believe that they were one of the elite clubs in the Eastern
Conference during the middle part of the ‘00s. It’s fitting that Chauncey
Billups has returned to Detroit in a reserve role, as the Pistons finally look
to return to competitive form this season. The additions of Josh Smith and
Brandon Jennings are massive upgrades. Smith is an elite defender who can guard
players on the wing or in the post. Jennings isn’t the most efficient player on
Earth, but when he gets on a run he can carry an offense. It’s unclear how a
frontcourt of Smith-Monroe-Drummond will function (there could be some major
floor spacing issues), but the Pistons do have some shooters they can mix in
and out of the lineup to help alleviate that. Smith’s flexibility also gives
Detroit the freedom to play small if necessary. Drummond is on the short list of
players who could make the leap to “Franchise Player” status before the season
is done.
13. Minnesota Timberwolves
Franchise Players = PF Kevin Love
Fringe Stars = PG Ricky Rubio, C Nikola Pekovic, SG Kevin
Martin
Supporting Cast = PG J.J. Barea, SF Corey Brewer, SG
Alexey Shved, PF Dante Cunningham, SF Chase Budinger, PF Derrick Williams
First Round Rookies = SF Shabazz Muhammad (1-14, UCLA,
traded from Jazz)
Outlook = Ravaged by injuries a year ago, Minnesota
will finally have the Love-Rubio duo on the court at the same time. Kevin Love
should be in a much happier place now that ex-general manager David Kahn has
finally been kicked out the door. Rubio was woefully rusty when he first
returned last season, but his final month stretch showed what he’s capable of
when healthy. Kevin Martin was much maligned after he no-showed the second
round of the playoffs for the Thunder last season, but he’s still a deadly
three-point shooter when he can be your third option. Look for Rubio to get him
plenty of open looks. Pekovic was given a healthy contract extension, and is
the ideal rim protector to pair with Kevin Love. Out of their supporting cast,
someone needs to emerge as a sixth man who can score. Derrick Williams has the
most upside, but has shown nothing in his first couple of years in the league
to validate being the second player taken in the draft. Corey Brewer provides
exceptional perimeter defense that the Timberwolves lost when Andrei Kirilenko
bolted for the Nets. Health permitting, Minnesota should be in the thick of the
Western Conference playoff race.
12. Portland Trail Blazers
Franchise Players = PF LaMarcus Aldridge
Fringe Stars = SF Nicolas Batum, PG Damian Lilliard, SG
Wesley Matthews
Supporting Cast = C Robin Lopez, PG Mo Williams, SF
Dorell Wright, PF Thomas Robinson
First Round Rookies = PG C.J. McCollum (1-10, Lehigh)
Outlook = Last season, Portland trotted out one of
the most efficient starting fives in the NBA, but was undone by one of the
worst benches in the league. While the starting core remains intact, Portland
aggressively moved to fix their bench issues. Mo Williams and Dorell Wright are
both capable of producing sixth man of the year numbers. Robin Lopez might not
post the huge rebound totals J.J. Hickson did last year, but he’s a better rim
protector who will improve Portland’s overall team defense. LaMarcus Aldridge
is one of the top-5 scoring power forwards in the league, but it will take
another step in production from Nicolas Batum to lift this team into
championship contention. Portland isn’t one of the favorites, but consider them
a dark horse to make noise come playoff time.
11. Dallas Mavericks
Franchise Players = PF Dirk Nowitzki
Fringe Stars = SG Monta Ellis, PG Jose Calderon
Supporting Cast = SF Shawn Marion, SG Vince Carter, C
Samuel Dalembert, C Brandon Wright, PG Devin Harris, C DeJuan Blair
First Round Rookies = PG Shane Larkin (1-18, Miami,
traded from Hawks)
Outlook = We’ll say this for the Mavericks…at least
they actually tried to put competent NBA players around Dirk Nowitzki.
Unfortunately, unless Shawn Marion or Samuel Dalembert is on the floor, none of
them will want to play defense. Nowitzki looks poised for a massive bounce back
year, as he was slowly rounding into shape by the end of last season. How the
backcourt gels will ultimately determine the ceiling of Dallas. Monta Ellis is
among the most relentless guards in the NBA, but he’s also among the most
inefficient. Coach Rick Carlisle might be the right coach that can get the most
out of him. Jose Calderon couldn’t ask to have been placed in a better
situation, as his game is similar to a poor man’s Steve Nash (circa 2007).
Dallas hasn’t had a point guard presence like this since Nash left after the
2003-04 season. Shawn Marion and Vince Carter are steady veterans out on the
wing who still provide more value than you would think. In the end, expect a
top-5 scoring team, along with a bottom-five defensive unit, with the chance of
maybe sneaking into the second round.
10. Golden State Warriors
Franchise Players = PG Stephen Curry
Fringe Stars = SG Klay Thompson, SF Andre Iguodala, C
Andrew Bogut, PF David Lee
Supporting Cast = SF Harrison Barnes, SF Draymond Green
Rookies = None
Outlook = Miami might have been crowned the NBA
champions, but there wasn’t a more entertaining team in last year’s playoffs
than the Golden State Warriors. Most of that can be credited to their
three-point shooting blitz, led by the dynamic duo of Stephen Curry and Klay
Thompson. Curry has dealt with ankle issues throughout his NBA career, but
there is no doubt that when healthy he can be the centerpiece of a championship
team. Thompson showed tremendous versatility in the playoffs, and another leap
by him would give the Warriors the best backcourt in basketball. Andre Iguodala
provides much-needed defense on the wing, and has the passing ability to
facilitate three-point shooting. Golden State really took off once David Lee
went down, so it will be interesting to see how he’s utilized this season. The
Warriors have rarely had both him and Andrew Bogut healthy at the same time.
Bogut is the key to any championship aspirations the Warriors might have. He
provides much needed rim-protection. Harrison Barnes will likely be relegated
to a sixth man role, which isn’t a bad thing. He often performed at his best
when he was forced to be the lead scoring option last season. Golden State
doesn’t appear to be very deep, but with good health and reasonable player
development, they are again a dark horse in the Western Conference.
9. Memphis Grizzlies
Franchise Players = C Marc Gasol, PF Zach Randolph
Fringe Stars = PG Mike Conley
Supporting Cast = SG Tony Allen, C Kosta Koufos, PG
Jerryd Bayless, SF Tayshaun Prince, SF Mike Miller, PF Ed Davis, PF Jon Leuer
Rookies = None
Outlook = There isn’t another team in the league more
likely to play in more games where neither team scores 90 points than the
Memphis Grizzlies. Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph make a very formidable pair
down low, but there isn’t enough floor spacing around them to take advantage of
it. Tony Allen is one of the top-5 wing defenders in the league, but his
atrocious shooting makes it difficult for him to be on the court in crunch
time. It will likely take another leap from Mike Conley (who is a very solid
point guard, but you don’t always want your offense being initiated by him) for
Memphis to have all the ingredients for a championship basketball team. At this
point in his career, that would seem unlikely. The Grizzlies will be the most physical team
in the league to match up with on a nightly basis, but there isn’t enough
firepower here to get them out of the Western Conference.
Title Contenders
8. Indiana Pacers
Franchise Players = SG Paul George, C Roy Hibbert
Fringe Stars = PF David West, SF Danny Granger, PG George
Hill
Supporting Cast = SG Lance Stephenson, PF Luis Scola, PG
C.J. Watson
First Round Rookies = SF Solomon Hill (1-23, Arizona)
Outlook = Indiana employed one of the most
devastating five-man units in all of basketball last year when they had
Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert on the court. The problem was, the bench
was atrocious. There wasn’t one viable bench option that could be relied upon
on a nightly basis. The Pacers partially patched their bench issues with the
acquisitions of Luis Scola and C.J. Watson. Scola is a plus post scorer who can
give quality minutes when David West or Roy Hibbert is on the bench. Watson
isn’t spectacular, but at least he isn’t D.J. Augustin. The great equalizer for
the Pacers could be the expiring contract of Danny Granger. How they use this
valuable trade chip could put Indiana over the top.
7. Brooklyn Nets
Franchise Players = PG Deron Williams, C Brook Lopez
Fringe Stars = SF Paul Pierce, SG Joe Johnson, PF Kevin
Garnett, SF Andrei Kirilenko
Supporting Cast = PF Andray Blatche, SG Jason Terry, PF
Reggie Evans, SG Alan Anderson
First Round Rookies = PF Mason Plumlee (1-22, Duke)
Outlook = What happens when the Russian Mafia decides
to fund a basketball team? This conglomerate of talent, which is unlike any
we’ve ever seen before. Not in the history of modern man have so many
overpriced commodities been put together on one team. At least the team should
be competitive. This is really a put up or shut up year for Deron Williams, who
has no excuses with all the talent around him. Depending on how he handles it,
Brook Lopez will benefit the most from getting to spend time with Garnett. Joe
Johnson’s play also stands to gain, as he can revert more to his style of play
from his Phoenix Suns days. There is plenty of depth here, which assures that
Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett will not have to be overextended during the
regular season. Anything short of an appearance in the second round of the
playoffs would be a disappointment.
6. Oklahoma City Thunder
Franchise Players = SF Kevin Durant, PG Russell Westbrook
Fringe Stars = PF Serge Ibaka
Supporting Cast = SG Thabo Sefolosha, PF Nick Collison,
PG Reggie Jackson, C Kendrick Perkins, SF Ryan Gomes
First Round Rookies = C Steven Adams (1-12, Pittsburgh)
No
team’s front office has done more harm to its roster over the past year than
the Oklahoma City Thunder. The now infamous James Harden trade (which by my
count, needs a breakout year from Jeremy Lamb to be remotely justifiable)
coupled with the stubborn loyalty to Kendrick Perkins has done irrevocable harm
to what was once the best young group in the NBA. Kevin Durant is still the
second best player in the NBA, but he’ll have to do it the first month without
Russell Westbrook. Serge Ibaka did nothing in the playoffs to try to ease the
blow of losing Westbrook (in fact, he posted virtually identical stats after
Westbrook got hurt as he did before the injury), and a leap from him is
desperately needed. He has the talent, but last year didn’t show the
appropriate level of assertiveness. Thabo Sefolosha is a defensive specialist
who also has 3-point shooting ability. With Kevin Martin in Minnesota, he’ll
see more playing time. Reggie Jackson is a streaky shooter who should be able
to fill in sufficiently while Westbrook is out. Oklahoma City isn’t the
prohibitive favorite in the West like they were last season, but maybe that
isn’t a bad thing.
5. Los Angeles Clippers
Franchise Players = PG Chris Paul, PF Blake Griffin
Fringe Stars = SG J.J. Redick, SG Jamal Crawford, C DeAndre Jordan
Supporting Cast = SG J.J. Redick, SF Matt Barnes, PG
Darren Collison, SG Jared Dudley, C Byron Mullens
First Round Rookies = SG Reggie Bullock (1-25, North
Carolina)
Outlook = Will the hiring of Doc Rivers be the final
piece that lifts the Clippers into true championship contention? We know it
can’t hurt now that Vinny Del Negro is no longer involved. After taking a step
back last season, we expect Doc to get the most out of Blake Griffin. Blake
needs to develop a consistent 15-footer to truly reach superstar status. Chris
Paul will do his usual Chris Paul things, and he has plenty of great shooters
to work with. J.J. Redick couldn’t of picked a better spot to land in free
agency, as he is an ideal floor spacer. Resigning Matt Barnes was an unexpected
bonus, as he brought much needed perimeter defense to the table. Darren
Collison has been a disappointment ever since his breakout run subbing for an
injured Chris Paul in 2010 for the Hornets, but he may be better suited for a
bench role. Jared Dudley is also an underrated edition that brings plenty of
versatility to the table. They may not be the favorite, but the Clippers will
be a force to be reckoned with come playoff time.
4. Houston Rockets
Franchise Players = SG James Harden, C Dwight Howard
Fringe Stars = SF Chandler Parsons, PG Jeremy Lin, C Omer
Asik
Supporting Cast = PG Patrick Beverly, SG Reggie Williams,
SF Omri Casspi, SG Francisco Garcia
Rookies = None
Outlook = The unquestioned winner of the past two
off-seasons, Houston finally has all the parts needed to make a serious title
run. Reaching their ceiling depends entirely on whether or not they get the
2008-09 version of Dwight Howard. If they do, this is a more athletic version
of the Orlando Magic squad D-12 dragged to the NBA Finals. James Harden is the
perfect compliment to him, as he is more than qualified to carry the offensive
load in crunch time. Chandler Parsons will benefit from sliding down to the
third option offensively, and should be a more efficient player because of it.
There’s some healthy competition at the point guard spot with Patrick Beverly
nipping at the heels of Jeremy Lin. Beverly is the more complete defensive
player, so don’t be shocked if he has the gig locked up by New Year’s. Either
way, Lin will be a valuable offensive asset, with hitting the bench perhaps
being in the best interest of the team. Omer Asik doesn’t project to be able to
share the floor with Howard, and likely will have to be moved. He’s a great
rebounder so don’t be shocked if Houston makes a mutually beneficial swap with
an Eastern Conference club. If they can have chemistry established before the
playoffs, the Rockets could be the team to knock off Miami in the Finals.
3. San Antonio Spurs
Franchise Players = PG Tony Parker, PF Tim Duncan
Fringe Stars = SF Kawhi Leonard, SG Manu Ginobili
Supporting Cast = C Tiago Splitter, SG Danny Green, SG
Marco Belinelli, PF Boris Diaw, PF Matt Bonner
Rookies = None
Outlook = Normally, we worry about how a team will
react to a devastating championship loss, but the Spurs are a different animal.
We expect Greg Popovich (who sort of acted like he had money on the Heat during
last year’s Finals, but we can save that conversation for another day) to have
his group refocused. Duncan and Ginobili are another year older (which
especially in Manu’s case, isn’t a good thing), but that might not matter much
if Kawhi Leonard can translate his play from last season’s Finals into a full
regular season. It could be argued that at times he was the second best player
on the court against the Heat. An expanded role for Leonard will take a ton of
heat off of the aging core of the team. Tony Parker is still in the prime of
his career, and will maintain his place as the engine of the offense. Tiago
Splitter was resigned, and may see some more low-post looks. Danny Green and
Marco Belinelli in the fold, and each have the 3-point ability to swing games
on their own. The road to the Finals will be tougher, but the Spurs still have
the talent to get there.
2. Chicago Bulls
Franchise Players = PG Derrick Rose, C Joakim Noah
Fringe Stars = SF Luol Deng, PF Carlos Boozer, SG Jimmy
Butler
Supporting Cast = PF Taj Gibson, PG Kirk Hinrich, SG Mike
Dunleavy
First Round Rookies = SF Tony Snell (1-20, New Mexico)
Outlook = Has anyone’s preseason performance ever
been more scrutinized than Derrick Rose? I’d say no, but it’s with good reason.
After sitting out all of last year, Rose looks to be very close to his MVP form
of 2010-11. Rose returns to a more talented team that also has the flexibility
to make a blockbuster trade if it chooses too. Luol Deng and Carlos Boozer are
both on expiring contracts that could be used to bring in a quality asset
(Boogie Cousins? Al Horford? Pau Gasol?). For the first time in his career,
Rose has an emerging shooting guard alongside him in Jimmy Butler. Butler is a
stat stuffer who does everything Coach Thibodeau asks him to do. Joakim Noah
took a leap while Rose was out last year, putting the Bulls on his back on
several occasions. Gibson, Hinrich, and Mike Dunleavy form a solid bench that
gives Chicago a reliable top-8 come playoff time. They aren’t the best bet to
win the title right now, but the right trade could push them over the edge.
The Favorite
1. Miami Heat
Franchise Players = SF Lebron James, SG Dwyane Wade
Fringe Stars = PF Chris Bosh, SG Ray Allen
Supporting Cast = PF Chris Anderson, PG Mario Chalmers,
PF Udonis Haslem, PG Norris Cole, SF Shane Battier, SF Michael Beasley, C Greg
Oden
Rookies = None
Outlook = It would be irresponsible to rank the
two-time defending champs any lower than first. Dwyane Wade is getting older,
and Chris Bosh was a shell of his former self in the NBA Finals against the
Spurs (with the exception of the clutch offensive rebound and pass to Ray Allen
in Game 6), but Lebron James masks any warts this team has. Lebron is at the
peak of his powers, even adding 40% shooting on threes last season. Ray Allen
has embraced his role with the Heat, stepping up when his name is called. Miami
has the deepest bench in basketball, with a plethora of guys who can get hot
and swing a game on any given night. If a medical miracle occurs and Greg Oden
can somehow be healthy, you can cancel the 2014 Finals right now and give the
trophy to the Heat.
