Hawks over Wizards in 7
Bulls over Cavaliers in 6
Warriors over Grizzlies in 4
Rockets over Clippers in 6
Showing posts with label Memphis Grizzlies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Memphis Grizzlies. Show all posts
Saturday, May 2, 2015
Tuesday, February 17, 2015
NBA All-Star Break Rankings
Now
that Marv Albert is done complaining about the lack of defensive effort in the
All-Star Game, we are here to rank all 30 teams. In reverse order, we are
listing the teams we feel have the best chance to win the title in June.
Spoiler alert…it won’t be the 76ers.
Atrocious
30. Philadelphia 76ers
Someone
needs to tell Joel Embiid to take it easy on the junk food while he’s
rehabbing.
29. New York Knicks
We’re
still trying to figure out which hallucinogenic drug Phil Jackson was on before
the season when he thought the Knicks were a playoff team. At least they
actually have the rights to their first round pick this year.
28. Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota
earns karma points for actually trying to win games in the brutal Western
Conference this year, and after a slow start Andrew Wiggins is beginning to
look like a future superstar.
27. Los Angeles Lakers
Considering
how atrocious Kobe Bryant was shooting from the field, it might hurt their
lottery chances that he is on the shelf for the rest of the year.
Occasionally Frisky
26. Orlando Magic
If
they can keep the core of young guys they have together, Orlando might have the
makings of a playoff team within two years.
25. Utah Jazz
Quietly,
Utah is giving up the fourth fewest points per game among Western Conference
teams. No one knows that because they are scoring the fewest points per game
among Western Conference teams.
24. Indiana Pacers
They
are a pain in the ass to play every night, but points have been incredibly hard
to come by without Paul George. As far as lottery teams, they could have the
greatest impact on the playoff picture depending on whether or not they decide
to move some of their veteran players.
23. Sacramento Kings
Here’s
a short synopsis of the Kings’ season so far for those of you on the East
Coast.
- Got off to a promising start with Boogie Cousins playing like a MVP candidate.
- Boogie contracted meningitis (which is bonkers), and the Kings went into a total freefall.
- The Kings fired Mike Malone while Cousins was out sick.
- Sacramento is now a team in utter turmoil, but at least Boogie is back healthy.
We here at No Credentials love Boogie Cousins, and we fully support the Boston Celtics sending 8 future first round picks to acquire him.
22. Boston Celtics
Boston
has enough draft picks over the next few years to build a 53-man roster, which
would be cool if they were an NFL franchise.
In Need of a Rebuild
21. Brooklyn Nets
Fortunately
for the Celtics, three of the picks they are owed will be coming from the
dumpster fire that is the Brooklyn Nets.
20. Denver Nuggets
Denver
is living proof of what happens when you end up picking between tenth and
twentieth every year in the draft.
Fatally Flawed, But in the Eastern Conference
19. Detroit Pistons
The Pistons
keep dropping inefficient shooters (Josh Smith was waived, and Brandon Jennings
ruptured his Achilles), which probably means D.J. Augustin should be looking
into how much his deductible is on his health insurance.
18. Miami Heat
Miami
runs the same plays they have for years, but they don’t as well when Lebron
James isn’t in the lineup.
17. Charlotte Hornets
Lance
Stephenson has worked out so bad for the Hornets, they are actually considering
flipping him for Joe Johnson and Joe Johnson’s ginormous contract.
16. Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee
has managed to stay afloat despite the loss of Jabari Parker (what a bummer) to
injury and Larry Sanders to the love of marijuana. The Greek Freak is the real
deal.
Destined to Be on the Outside Looking In
15. New Orleans Pelicans
One
year I renamed one of my fantasy football teams “Aaron Rodgers”, because he was
the only reason my team was competitive. New Orleans should consider doing the
same and going by “The Brow” the rest of the way.
14. Phoenix Suns
Phoenix
is losing its grip on the eighth seed, which is a problem when they still have
the hardest part of their schedule ahead of them. Rumors that Goran Dragic is
on the trade block smacks of desperation.
Flawed Contenders
13. Los Angeles Clippers
In a
loaded Western Conference, Blake Griffin’s staph infection is enough to drop
the Clippers out of the playoffs altogether.
12. Washington Wizards
Bradley
Beal has been off all season while dealing with a variety of injuries, and
that’s what will hold Washington back from being a contender in the East.
11. Oklahoma City Thunder
Despite
all of the games missed by both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, and the
handi-cap of having the worst coach in the league, the Thunder are only half a
game behind Phoenix. Their title chances hinge largely on whether or not they
can avoid Golden State in the first round of the playoffs.
10. Dallas Mavericks
Rajon
Rondo has delivered uneven results so far, but we’re guessing he will deliver
value come playoff time.
9. San Antonio Spurs
This
San Antonio club remains me of the Spurs squad that was swept by the Suns in
the first round of the 2010 playoffs. That’s not a good thing.
8. Houston Rockets
James
Harden has been playing out of his mind, but Houston’s title hopes hinge
largely on whether or not Dwight Howard is back at full strength before the
playoffs.
7. Toronto Raptors
Remember
last year when the Pacers got to the playoffs and suddenly forgot how to
execute basic offensive functions? That’s our prediction for how the Raptors
will look in April.
Legit Title Contenders
6. Portland Trail Blazers
LaMarcus
Aldridge deciding to play through his thumb injury was the turning point of
Portland’s season.
5. Cleveland Cavaliers
We’re
already looking forward to the over analysis of Kevin Love shooting 25% from
the floor in Cleveland’s first round playoff series. We’d bump Cleveland as
high as second if they can add one more useful big man.
4. Memphis Grizzlies
Other
than the Spurs, there isn’t another team in the league whose players understand
their roles and deliver consistently on a nightly basis.
3. Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta
has played beautiful basketball all season long, but too many times we’ve seen
groups like this crumble in a conference finals. We’re not sure if Al Horford
or Jeff Teague are capable of delivering a bucket when it really matters come
playoff time.
2. Chicago Bulls
To
say Chicago’s play has been uneven is being kind, but assuming Joakim Noah can
get to at least 80% effectiveness by April 1, there isn’t a deeper team in the league.
1. Golden State Warriors
If it were medically possible, the Warriors would be
wise to freeze Andrew Bogut in carbonite so he can be healthy in the playoffs.
Tuesday, October 29, 2013
Blow Out the Budget 2013-14 NBA Preview
The start of the NBA season is upon us, and No Credentials has reviewed
every roster. We’ve identified the championship contenders, the middle of the
road squads, and the clubs that should try to go 0-82. For each team, we list
each player that fits the following criteria.
Fringe Stars = PG Eric Bledsoe
Supporting Cast = PG Goran Dragic, C Emeka Okafor, PF Channing Frye
First Round Rookies = C Alex Len (1-5, Maryland)
Outlook = Phoenix is second in line for the “Riggins for Wiggins” sweepstakes, but unlike Philadelphia, it looks like the Suns have actually been trying to construct a competitive basketball team. Eric Bledsoe will finally have a crack at significant playing time, but it’s hard to see him and Goran Dragic coexisting in the same back court. It would make a ton of sense for Dragic to be shipped elsewhere. Marcin Gortat was the most valuable trade chip Phoenix had (his contract expires at the end of the season), and Phoenix didn’t wait long to ship him out of town. Emeka Okafor was acquired mostly because of his huge expiring contract, but if he’s able to return by season’s end could be a decent mentor for Alex Len. The Suns are primed to have a ton of ping balls in the 2014 Draft Lottery.
Fringe Stars = SF Thaddeus Young
Supporting Cast = SG Evan Turner, C Spencer Hawes, SG Jason Richardson
First Round Rookies = C Nerlens Noel (1-6, Kentucky, traded from Pelicans), PG Michael Carter-Williams (Syracuse, 1-11)
Outlook = 2013-14 is going to be pretty atrocious for the 76ers, but that is by design. They’ve blown the roster up in an effort to get as many young assets as possible. Nerlens Noel was the perfect acquisition for this sort of plan, as it’s unlikely he sees the court until sometime after New Years Day. Even better, New Orleans sent their 2014 first round pick along with Noel for the rights to Jrue Holliday, meaning they could have two ping-pong balls in the “Riggins for Wiggins” sweepstakes (more on New Orleans later). They could be trotting four lottery picks from back-to-back drafts this time next year. No team has a better five-year outlook than the Philadelphia 76ers, so remember that Philly fans when they finish 15-67 this year.
Fringe Stars = C Al Jefferson
Supporting Cast = SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, PG Kemba Walker, SG Gerald Henderson, SG Ben Gordon, PF Bismack Biyombo
First Round Rookies = PF Cody Zeller (1-4, Indiana)
Outlook = There’s a slight chance Charlotte isn’t putrid this season. Al Jefferson won’t play a lick of defense, but he’s the first low-post scorer the Bobcats have ever had. Kemba Walker was a pleasant surprise last season, but I still would prefer to see him in a sixth man role on a playoff team. Kidd-Gilchrist showed flashes last spring, and when healthy, Gerald Henderson is capable of filling the stat sheet. Ben Gordon has a very valuable $13 million expiring contract, meaning if the Bobcats play their cards right, they could be able to scoop up some extra draft picks from a club looking for salary cap relief. Charlotte will still have a great chance at the number one overall pick, but at least they finally have some direction.
Fringe Stars = PF Derrick Favors
Supporting Cast = SF Gordon Hayward, C Enes Kanter, SG Alec Burks, PF Marvin Williams
First Round Rookies = PG Trey Burke (1-9, Michigan, traded from Timberwolves)
Outlook = For the first time since immediately following the end of the Stockton-Malone era, the Jazz will not be in playoff contention this season. Part of that is by design, as they let Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap walk without receiving anything in return. More playing time for Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter is a good thing, as both have the look of quality NBA big men. Gordon Hayward is a solid scorer, but asking him to be the go-to scorer is ridiculous. Expect a lot of 4-18s out of Utah’s Great White Hope. Trey Burke has the talent to eventually be a Mike Conley-like point guard for the Jazz.
Fringe Stars = SF Jeff Green
Supporting Cast = PG Avery Bradley, SG MarShon Brooks, PF Jared Sullinger, SF Gerald Wallace, PF Kris Humphries, SG Courtney Lee, PF Brandon Bass
First Round Rookies = PF Kelly Olynyk (1-13, Gonzaga, traded from Mavericks)
Outlook = I’ve flip-flopped 20 times on whether or not the Celtics will be terrible or mediocre. I guess we’ll split the difference and predict they will be bad. Until Rajon Rondo returns, it’s hard to envision how this team is going to score on a consistent basis. Jeff Green is the obvious first option, but has been wildly inconsistent throughout his NBA career, and shown no desire in being the star attraction. It looks like December or January is the time when a Rondo season debut is a possibility. What they do with Rondo will be very interesting, as he’s one of the few superstars in the league on a reasonable contract. You could argue either way, but No Credentials vote is to keep him. If the ping-pong balls hit right, Rondo paired with one of the studs from next years draft could immediately return the Celtics to relevance.
Fringe Stars = C Nikola Vucevic
Supporting Cast = SF Tobias Harris, SG Arron Afflalo, PG Jameer Nelson, SF Hedo Turkoglu, PF Glen Davis
First Round Rookies = SG Victor Oladipo (1-2, Indiana)
Outlook = Orlando had a great off-season in the sense that they locked up a valuable piece, added a great young building block in the draft, but still are shitty enough that they’ll end up with a great draft pick next year. Nikola Vucevic is a rebounding machine that with an improved offensive game could eventually be a top-3 center in the NBA. Oladipo is a hyper active guard who at the very least will be a defensive stopper. Tobias Harris was the steal of last year’s trade deadline (he was the centerpiece in Milwaukee’s package for J.J. Reddick), and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him average 18 per game. In terms of expiring contracts, Jameer Nelson is the most valuable one, as he represents $8 million coming off the books next summer. He’s a point guard with playoff experience, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see him shipped to a contender in February.
Fringe Stars = None
Supporting Cast = PG Greivis Vasquez, SG Marcus Thornton, PG Isaiah Thomas PF Carl Landry, PF Patrick Patterson, SF John Salmons, PF Chuck Hayes, PF Jason Thompson
First Round Rookies = SG Ben McLemore (1-7, Kansas)
Outlook = Six months ago it appeared to be inevitable that the Kings would end up relocating to Seattle, but miraculously California’s state capital was able to keep it’s one professional sports franchise. Unfortunately most of the same roster from a year ago is still intact. At least black hole Tyreke Evans has been moved to New Orleans, meaning that this team will officially run through DeMarcus Cousins. Whether that is a good or bad thing will depend entirely on if his head is screwed on straight. Besides Boogie, there’s a bunch of dudes you’d love to have coming off your bench surrounding him. Marcus Thornton has shown flashes of offensive brilliance, but is not nearly efficient enough to be your most reliable perimeter scorer (playoff teams should be checking in on him around the trade deadline. The guy could single-handedly swing a playoff game or two if he gets hot). How they distribute the minutes between Vasquez and Thomas will be interesting, as there’s no way strategically that they can be on the floor at the same time. Ben McLemore has the talent to eventually be a top-10 two-guard, but he looks like a guy that won’t fully show it in year one.
Fringe Stars = PF Paul Millsap, PG Jeff Teague
Supporting Cast = SG Louis Williams, SG Kyle Korver, PF Elton Brand
First Round Rookies = PG Dennis Schroeder (1-17, Germany)
Outlook = Atlanta’s roster has basically been built around the premise of shedding salary to have money for free agency next season, which is ironic because elite free agents never sign with the Hawks. It wouldn’t be shocking to see them make a blockbuster trade in an effort to acquire a star caliber player (Rudy Gay anyone?). As for what is on the roster, the starting group is decent enough, but the bench leaves a lot to be desired. Al Horford and Paul Millsap will be one of the better low post pairings the NBA has to offer, but it’s tough to see how any offense is going to be initiated without Josh Smith. Barring a major trade, the Hawks will find themselves in the lottery for the first time in many years.
Fringe Stars = None
Supporting Cast = PG Steve Nash, C Chris Kaman, SG Nick Young, PG Steve Blake, SG Jodie Meeks, C Jordan Hill
First Round Rookies = None
Outlook = Not since the 2004-05 season (the year Shaq was traded to Miami) have the Lakers been in such a state of flux. Dwight Howard became the first marquee Lakers free agent to bolt for another franchise. Kobe’s recovery from a torn Achilles’ is the greatest unknown, as the question of when he will actually play has to be answered before we can see what level he can compete at. A fully healthy Bryant would have a hard time dragging this group into the playoffs. Pau Gasol and Steve Nash are the two Lakers whose situation actually improved from a year ago. Gasol will return to his rightful spot in the post, and Nash-Gasol pick-and-rolls have the chance to be devastating. Pau is a free agent after the season and could fetch himself one more max contract if he plays to his potential. The bench isn’t quite as atrocious as last season, but the Lakers are still one of the shallowest clubs in the NBA. Chris Kaman will make an impact when he’s healthy, and Nick Young is one of the more infamous irrational confidence guys the league has to offer. It’s going to be a rough year in Laker-land, but at leastthey know the NBA
will rig the 2014 Draft Lottery so they end up with Andrew Wiggins they’ll
have a top-10 pick in a loaded draft.
Fringe Stars = PG Ty Lawson, PF Kenneth Faried, SF Danilo Gallinari
Supporting Cast = C JaVale McGee, SG Wilson Chandler, PG Andre Miller, PF J.J. Hickson, PG Nate Robinson, C Timofey Mozgov, SG Randy Foye, PF Darrell Arthur
First Round Rookies = None
Outlook = Normally a solid bet for landing somewhere between the fourth or eighth seed in the Western Conference, this is the year we see the wheels coming off a bit for the Nuggets. There are a lot of interesting parts, but figuring out how new coach Brian Shaw doles out minutes will go a long way in determining if this group can stay in playoff contention. Danilo Gallinari will miss a large chunk of time at the beginning of the year, which is a killer to a team that relies so heavily on three-point shooting. Ty Lawson will have to shoulder a larger scoring load as long as Gallinari is out. JaVale McGee finally appears to be slated to get regular minutes, but we aren’t sure if more of McGee is a good thing. When he’s engaged, there are few big men who impact the game on the defensive end as much as him. We see the Nuggets sliding out of their usual top-8 finishing spot and ending up in the lottery next spring.
Fringe Stars = SF Rudy Gay, SG DeMar DeRozan, PG Kyle Lowry,
Supporting Cast = C Jonas Valanciunas, PF Amir Johnson, SF Landry Fields, PF Austin Daye, SF Steve Novak, PF Tyler Hansbrough, SG Terrance Ross
Rookies = None
Outlook = If you want to make a bet on which NBA team will brick the most 15-foot jump shots this season, look no further than the Raptors. Rudy Gay is paid like a franchise player, but has never demonstrated in his NBA career that he’s capable of carrying one. Kyle Lowry stuffs the stat sheet, but his difficult personality rubs teammates and coaches the wrong way on too many occasions. DeMar DeRozan would be best suited as a sixth man, but he is fantastic and attacking the rim and getting to the foul line. Amir Johnson has plenty of skills that would benefit a championship caliber team, but unfortunately he’s buried in Toronto. The greatest wildcard on the Raptors roster is Jonas Valanciunas. If he makes a leap, the Andrea Bargnani trade will go down as a brilliant move.
19. Milwaukee Bucks
Franchise Players = None
Fringe Stars = C Larry Sanders, SG O.J. Mayo
Supporting Cast = SF Ersan Ilyasova, PG Brandon Knight, SF Caron Butler, SG Carlos Delfino, PG Gary Neal, PG Luke Ridnour, PF John Henson
First Round Rookies = SG Giannis Antetokounmpo (1-15, Europe)
Outlook = There isn’t another team in the NBA with a weirder assortment of wing players. Gone are Brandon Jennings and Monte Ellis, and in are O.J. Mayo and a bunch of dudes who are best served coming off the bench. If nothing else, they do have the chance to roll out a spunky small-ball lineup. Larry Sanders is slated to receive the largest amount of minutes he’s ever gotten, but he needs to limit his fouls in order to reach his full potential. If he does, a defensive player of the year award is within reach. We also can’t sleep on the Greek rookie who has 36 letters in his last name. Ultimately, this looks like a group that could finish anywhere between eighth or twelfth in the Eastern Conference.
Fringe Stars = PG Jrue Holiday, SG Tyreke Evans, SG Eric Gordon, C Ryan Anderson
Supporting Cast = SG Anthony Morrow, SF Al-Farouq Aminu
First Round Rookies = None
Outlook = What do you get when have an owner who is demanding to win now, and a general manager desperate to stay employed past this season? Your 2013-14 New Orleans Pelicans. It would appear on paper that this team has no depth (in good conscious, we couldn’t list Austin Rivers as a supporting cast member after his epically abysmal rookie campaign), and very little defense. However, if their top five players click offensively, watch out. Many experts are concerned how the Holiday-Evans-Gordon trio will function. One option would be having Evans or Gordon function as the sixth man. Evans does have the size needed to play the three, but has never shown in his Kings’ days that he has any interest in team defense. If Anthony Davis carries his preseason performance into the regular season campaign, that might not matter. Davis looks fully prepared to continue his journey of becoming the next Kevin Garnett. In a year where New Orleans needs to win in order to ensure that the draft pick they traded to Philadelphia for the rights to Jrue Holiday doesn’t end up in the lottery, we predict that they will come up just short of that goal.
Fringe Stars = C Tyson Chandler, PF Amar’e Stoudemire, SG J.R. Smith, PG Raymond Felton
Supporting Cast = PF Andrea Bargnani, SF Metta World Peace, SG Iman Shumpert, PF Kenyon Martin, PG Beno Udrih
First Round Rookies = SG Tim Hardaway Jr. (1-24, Michigan)
Outlook = You’ll have to look real hard to find an odder assortment of front court players than what the New York Knicks have thrown together. Carmelo Anthony thrived when he played the 4 in a small-ball lineup, but this is a team that employs three capable power forwards already. The Andrea Bargnani trade adds floor spacing, but if he’s playing center when Tyson Chandler is on the bench, there is going to be a lay-up line at the other end of the court. Metta World Peace can guard larger wings, and Iman Shumpert is an emerging defensive stopper of either guard position, so perhaps the lack of rim protection can be mitigated. Tyson Chandler, J.R. Smith, and Raymond Felton all either wore down or fell apart mentally by the end of there second round series against Indian. Chandler in particular was a mess, and had the look of a player in serious physical decline. Kenyon Martin does bring some toughness if Chandler is unable to play to his full potential, but lacks the size to dominate the boards. New York should treat anything Amar’e Stoudemire offers this season as a bonus. The Knicks have a bunch of parts, but on paper we just don’t see them gelling this year in a deeper Eastern Conference.
Fringe Stars = PF Anderson Varejao, PF Tristan Thompson, PG Jarrett Jack
Supporting Cast = SG Dion Waiters, SG Alonzo Gee, SF Earl Clark, SG C.J. Miles
First Round Rookies = PF Anthony Bennett (1-1, UNLV), SG Sergey Karasev (1-19, Russia)
Outlook = If you could guarantee that Kyrie Irving and Andrew Bynum would be healthy for the majority of the year, you could make the case that Cleveland would have enough firepower to make an Eastern Conference Finals run. Unfortunately, it’s more likely that snow will fall in Hawaii. Kyrie Irving has missed significant time in both of his two NBA seasons (and for that matter, his only year at Duke), but when he’s on the court he’s arguably a top-5 scorer in THE NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION. Bynum’s injury woes are even more problematic. It’s easy to forget that when he’s healthy, he’s among the top-5 centers in the league. Surrounding these two is a slew of talented role players. Anderson Varejao is another oft-injured commodity that is a stat stuffer when on the court. If Bynum shows some reliability, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Varejao shipped out of town. Tristan Thompson really came into his own after Varejao went down last year, and Cleveland just extended him through the 2015 season. He’s a dreadful free-throw shooter but has the talent to post 10+ boards every night. Dion Waiters is a streaky shooter who would be best served filling a sixth man role. Jarrett Jack is an interesting addition, as he gives Cleveland the ability to play Irving off the ball if need be. It’s hard to see where Anthony Bennett fits into the picture this year, but long term he has the talent to be a star. Many league experts think there’s a chance Lebron James returns to the Cavaliers next summer, and if he does, he’ll have plenty of talent around him. Even if Cleveland is in playoff contention, don’t be shocked to see them swing deals at the trade deadline that set them up with more cap space for next year.
Fringe Stars = SG Bradley Beal, PF Nene Hilario, C Marcin Gortat
Supporting Cast = SF Trevor Ariza, PF Al Harrington, SG Martell Webster, SF Jan Vesely, SF Josh Childress
First Round Rookies = SF Otto Porter Jr. (1-3, Georgetown)
Outlook = At first glance, having Washington ranked this high seems pretty ridiculous, but we’re putting a ton of stock into how the Wizards played the final two months of last season. John Wall was one of the top point guards during the league during that stretch (he directly impacted the championship in the No Credentials Fantasy Basketball League last year), and Washington reaching their potential hinges largely on him. Bradley Beal is also a piece of the puzzle. He looked lost to start his rookie year, but really turned it on after the All-Star break. It isn’t much of a stretch to predict he will end up as a top-10 shooting guard in the league by the end of the year. Hilario and Gortat form a formidable defensive pair down low. Washington’s acquisition of Gortat from Phoenix also allows Nene to move to his more natural spot at power forward. There are a slew of solid bench players here that on any given night can give the Wizards’ offense a jolt. It wouldn’t be fair to expect too much out of Otto Porter Jr., as it looks like he will have a similar rookie season to what Michael Kidd-Gilchrist had last season.
Fringe Stars = PF Greg Monroe, PG Brandon Jennings, C Andre Drummond
Supporting Cast = PG Rodney Stuckey, SG Kyle Singler, PF Charlie Villanueva, PG Chauncey Billups
First Round Rookies = SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (1-8, Georgia)
Outlook = Detroit has been so bad the last few years that it’s hard to believe that they were one of the elite clubs in the Eastern Conference during the middle part of the ‘00s. It’s fitting that Chauncey Billups has returned to Detroit in a reserve role, as the Pistons finally look to return to competitive form this season. The additions of Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings are massive upgrades. Smith is an elite defender who can guard players on the wing or in the post. Jennings isn’t the most efficient player on Earth, but when he gets on a run he can carry an offense. It’s unclear how a frontcourt of Smith-Monroe-Drummond will function (there could be some major floor spacing issues), but the Pistons do have some shooters they can mix in and out of the lineup to help alleviate that. Smith’s flexibility also gives Detroit the freedom to play small if necessary. Drummond is on the short list of players who could make the leap to “Franchise Player” status before the season is done.
Fringe Stars = PG Ricky Rubio, C Nikola Pekovic, SG Kevin Martin
Supporting Cast = PG J.J. Barea, SF Corey Brewer, SG Alexey Shved, PF Dante Cunningham, SF Chase Budinger, PF Derrick Williams
First Round Rookies = SF Shabazz Muhammad (1-14, UCLA, traded from Jazz)
Outlook = Ravaged by injuries a year ago, Minnesota will finally have the Love-Rubio duo on the court at the same time. Kevin Love should be in a much happier place now that ex-general manager David Kahn has finally been kicked out the door. Rubio was woefully rusty when he first returned last season, but his final month stretch showed what he’s capable of when healthy. Kevin Martin was much maligned after he no-showed the second round of the playoffs for the Thunder last season, but he’s still a deadly three-point shooter when he can be your third option. Look for Rubio to get him plenty of open looks. Pekovic was given a healthy contract extension, and is the ideal rim protector to pair with Kevin Love. Out of their supporting cast, someone needs to emerge as a sixth man who can score. Derrick Williams has the most upside, but has shown nothing in his first couple of years in the league to validate being the second player taken in the draft. Corey Brewer provides exceptional perimeter defense that the Timberwolves lost when Andrei Kirilenko bolted for the Nets. Health permitting, Minnesota should be in the thick of the Western Conference playoff race.
12. Portland Trail Blazers
Franchise Players = PF LaMarcus Aldridge
Fringe Stars = SF Nicolas Batum, PG Damian Lilliard, SG Wesley Matthews
Supporting Cast = C Robin Lopez, PG Mo Williams, SF Dorell Wright, PF Thomas Robinson
First Round Rookies = PG C.J. McCollum (1-10, Lehigh)
Outlook = Last season, Portland trotted out one of the most efficient starting fives in the NBA, but was undone by one of the worst benches in the league. While the starting core remains intact, Portland aggressively moved to fix their bench issues. Mo Williams and Dorell Wright are both capable of producing sixth man of the year numbers. Robin Lopez might not post the huge rebound totals J.J. Hickson did last year, but he’s a better rim protector who will improve Portland’s overall team defense. LaMarcus Aldridge is one of the top-5 scoring power forwards in the league, but it will take another step in production from Nicolas Batum to lift this team into championship contention. Portland isn’t one of the favorites, but consider them a dark horse to make noise come playoff time.
Fringe Stars = SG Monta Ellis, PG Jose Calderon
Supporting Cast = SF Shawn Marion, SG Vince Carter, C Samuel Dalembert, C Brandon Wright, PG Devin Harris, C DeJuan Blair
First Round Rookies = PG Shane Larkin (1-18, Miami, traded from Hawks)
Outlook = We’ll say this for the Mavericks…at least they actually tried to put competent NBA players around Dirk Nowitzki. Unfortunately, unless Shawn Marion or Samuel Dalembert is on the floor, none of them will want to play defense. Nowitzki looks poised for a massive bounce back year, as he was slowly rounding into shape by the end of last season. How the backcourt gels will ultimately determine the ceiling of Dallas. Monta Ellis is among the most relentless guards in the NBA, but he’s also among the most inefficient. Coach Rick Carlisle might be the right coach that can get the most out of him. Jose Calderon couldn’t ask to have been placed in a better situation, as his game is similar to a poor man’s Steve Nash (circa 2007). Dallas hasn’t had a point guard presence like this since Nash left after the 2003-04 season. Shawn Marion and Vince Carter are steady veterans out on the wing who still provide more value than you would think. In the end, expect a top-5 scoring team, along with a bottom-five defensive unit, with the chance of maybe sneaking into the second round.
Fringe Stars = SG Klay Thompson, SF Andre Iguodala, C Andrew Bogut, PF David Lee
Supporting Cast = SF Harrison Barnes, SF Draymond Green
Rookies = None
Outlook = Miami might have been crowned the NBA champions, but there wasn’t a more entertaining team in last year’s playoffs than the Golden State Warriors. Most of that can be credited to their three-point shooting blitz, led by the dynamic duo of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. Curry has dealt with ankle issues throughout his NBA career, but there is no doubt that when healthy he can be the centerpiece of a championship team. Thompson showed tremendous versatility in the playoffs, and another leap by him would give the Warriors the best backcourt in basketball. Andre Iguodala provides much-needed defense on the wing, and has the passing ability to facilitate three-point shooting. Golden State really took off once David Lee went down, so it will be interesting to see how he’s utilized this season. The Warriors have rarely had both him and Andrew Bogut healthy at the same time. Bogut is the key to any championship aspirations the Warriors might have. He provides much needed rim-protection. Harrison Barnes will likely be relegated to a sixth man role, which isn’t a bad thing. He often performed at his best when he was forced to be the lead scoring option last season. Golden State doesn’t appear to be very deep, but with good health and reasonable player development, they are again a dark horse in the Western Conference.
Fringe Stars = PG Mike Conley
Supporting Cast = SG Tony Allen, C Kosta Koufos, PG Jerryd Bayless, SF Tayshaun Prince, SF Mike Miller, PF Ed Davis, PF Jon Leuer
Rookies = None
Outlook = There isn’t another team in the league more likely to play in more games where neither team scores 90 points than the Memphis Grizzlies. Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph make a very formidable pair down low, but there isn’t enough floor spacing around them to take advantage of it. Tony Allen is one of the top-5 wing defenders in the league, but his atrocious shooting makes it difficult for him to be on the court in crunch time. It will likely take another leap from Mike Conley (who is a very solid point guard, but you don’t always want your offense being initiated by him) for Memphis to have all the ingredients for a championship basketball team. At this point in his career, that would seem unlikely. The Grizzlies will be the most physical team in the league to match up with on a nightly basis, but there isn’t enough firepower here to get them out of the Western Conference.
Fringe Stars = PF David West, SF Danny Granger, PG George Hill
Supporting Cast = SG Lance Stephenson, PF Luis Scola, PG C.J. Watson
First Round Rookies = SF Solomon Hill (1-23, Arizona)
Outlook = Indiana employed one of the most devastating five-man units in all of basketball last year when they had Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert on the court. The problem was, the bench was atrocious. There wasn’t one viable bench option that could be relied upon on a nightly basis. The Pacers partially patched their bench issues with the acquisitions of Luis Scola and C.J. Watson. Scola is a plus post scorer who can give quality minutes when David West or Roy Hibbert is on the bench. Watson isn’t spectacular, but at least he isn’t D.J. Augustin. The great equalizer for the Pacers could be the expiring contract of Danny Granger. How they use this valuable trade chip could put Indiana over the top.
Fringe Stars = SF Paul Pierce, SG Joe Johnson, PF Kevin Garnett, SF Andrei Kirilenko
Supporting Cast = PF Andray Blatche, SG Jason Terry, PF Reggie Evans, SG Alan Anderson
First Round Rookies = PF Mason Plumlee (1-22, Duke)
Outlook = What happens when the Russian Mafia decides to fund a basketball team? This conglomerate of talent, which is unlike any we’ve ever seen before. Not in the history of modern man have so many overpriced commodities been put together on one team. At least the team should be competitive. This is really a put up or shut up year for Deron Williams, who has no excuses with all the talent around him. Depending on how he handles it, Brook Lopez will benefit the most from getting to spend time with Garnett. Joe Johnson’s play also stands to gain, as he can revert more to his style of play from his Phoenix Suns days. There is plenty of depth here, which assures that Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett will not have to be overextended during the regular season. Anything short of an appearance in the second round of the playoffs would be a disappointment.
Fringe Stars = PF Serge Ibaka
Supporting Cast = SG Thabo Sefolosha, PF Nick Collison, PG Reggie Jackson, C Kendrick Perkins, SF Ryan Gomes
First Round Rookies = C Steven Adams (1-12, Pittsburgh)
No team’s front office has done more harm to its roster over the past year than the Oklahoma City Thunder. The now infamous James Harden trade (which by my count, needs a breakout year from Jeremy Lamb to be remotely justifiable) coupled with the stubborn loyalty to Kendrick Perkins has done irrevocable harm to what was once the best young group in the NBA. Kevin Durant is still the second best player in the NBA, but he’ll have to do it the first month without Russell Westbrook. Serge Ibaka did nothing in the playoffs to try to ease the blow of losing Westbrook (in fact, he posted virtually identical stats after Westbrook got hurt as he did before the injury), and a leap from him is desperately needed. He has the talent, but last year didn’t show the appropriate level of assertiveness. Thabo Sefolosha is a defensive specialist who also has 3-point shooting ability. With Kevin Martin in Minnesota, he’ll see more playing time. Reggie Jackson is a streaky shooter who should be able to fill in sufficiently while Westbrook is out. Oklahoma City isn’t the prohibitive favorite in the West like they were last season, but maybe that isn’t a bad thing.
Fringe Stars = SG J.J. Redick, SG Jamal Crawford, C DeAndre Jordan
Supporting Cast = SG J.J. Redick, SF Matt Barnes, PG Darren Collison, SG Jared Dudley, C Byron Mullens
First Round Rookies = SG Reggie Bullock (1-25, North Carolina)
Outlook = Will the hiring of Doc Rivers be the final piece that lifts the Clippers into true championship contention? We know it can’t hurt now that Vinny Del Negro is no longer involved. After taking a step back last season, we expect Doc to get the most out of Blake Griffin. Blake needs to develop a consistent 15-footer to truly reach superstar status. Chris Paul will do his usual Chris Paul things, and he has plenty of great shooters to work with. J.J. Redick couldn’t of picked a better spot to land in free agency, as he is an ideal floor spacer. Resigning Matt Barnes was an unexpected bonus, as he brought much needed perimeter defense to the table. Darren Collison has been a disappointment ever since his breakout run subbing for an injured Chris Paul in 2010 for the Hornets, but he may be better suited for a bench role. Jared Dudley is also an underrated edition that brings plenty of versatility to the table. They may not be the favorite, but the Clippers will be a force to be reckoned with come playoff time.
Fringe Stars = SF Chandler Parsons, PG Jeremy Lin, C Omer Asik
Supporting Cast = PG Patrick Beverly, SG Reggie Williams, SF Omri Casspi, SG Francisco Garcia
Rookies = None
Outlook = The unquestioned winner of the past two off-seasons, Houston finally has all the parts needed to make a serious title run. Reaching their ceiling depends entirely on whether or not they get the 2008-09 version of Dwight Howard. If they do, this is a more athletic version of the Orlando Magic squad D-12 dragged to the NBA Finals. James Harden is the perfect compliment to him, as he is more than qualified to carry the offensive load in crunch time. Chandler Parsons will benefit from sliding down to the third option offensively, and should be a more efficient player because of it. There’s some healthy competition at the point guard spot with Patrick Beverly nipping at the heels of Jeremy Lin. Beverly is the more complete defensive player, so don’t be shocked if he has the gig locked up by New Year’s. Either way, Lin will be a valuable offensive asset, with hitting the bench perhaps being in the best interest of the team. Omer Asik doesn’t project to be able to share the floor with Howard, and likely will have to be moved. He’s a great rebounder so don’t be shocked if Houston makes a mutually beneficial swap with an Eastern Conference club. If they can have chemistry established before the playoffs, the Rockets could be the team to knock off Miami in the Finals.
Fringe Stars = SF Kawhi Leonard, SG Manu Ginobili
Supporting Cast = C Tiago Splitter, SG Danny Green, SG Marco Belinelli, PF Boris Diaw, PF Matt Bonner
Rookies = None
Outlook = Normally, we worry about how a team will react to a devastating championship loss, but the Spurs are a different animal. We expect Greg Popovich (who sort of acted like he had money on the Heat during last year’s Finals, but we can save that conversation for another day) to have his group refocused. Duncan and Ginobili are another year older (which especially in Manu’s case, isn’t a good thing), but that might not matter much if Kawhi Leonard can translate his play from last season’s Finals into a full regular season. It could be argued that at times he was the second best player on the court against the Heat. An expanded role for Leonard will take a ton of heat off of the aging core of the team. Tony Parker is still in the prime of his career, and will maintain his place as the engine of the offense. Tiago Splitter was resigned, and may see some more low-post looks. Danny Green and Marco Belinelli in the fold, and each have the 3-point ability to swing games on their own. The road to the Finals will be tougher, but the Spurs still have the talent to get there.
Fringe Stars = SF Luol Deng, PF Carlos Boozer, SG Jimmy Butler
Supporting Cast = PF Taj Gibson, PG Kirk Hinrich, SG Mike Dunleavy
First Round Rookies = SF Tony Snell (1-20, New Mexico)
Outlook = Has anyone’s preseason performance ever been more scrutinized than Derrick Rose? I’d say no, but it’s with good reason. After sitting out all of last year, Rose looks to be very close to his MVP form of 2010-11. Rose returns to a more talented team that also has the flexibility to make a blockbuster trade if it chooses too. Luol Deng and Carlos Boozer are both on expiring contracts that could be used to bring in a quality asset (Boogie Cousins? Al Horford? Pau Gasol?). For the first time in his career, Rose has an emerging shooting guard alongside him in Jimmy Butler. Butler is a stat stuffer who does everything Coach Thibodeau asks him to do. Joakim Noah took a leap while Rose was out last year, putting the Bulls on his back on several occasions. Gibson, Hinrich, and Mike Dunleavy form a solid bench that gives Chicago a reliable top-8 come playoff time. They aren’t the best bet to win the title right now, but the right trade could push them over the edge.
Fringe Stars = PF Chris Bosh, SG Ray Allen
Supporting Cast = PF Chris Anderson, PG Mario Chalmers, PF Udonis Haslem, PG Norris Cole, SF Shane Battier, SF Michael Beasley, C Greg Oden
Rookies = None
Outlook = It would be irresponsible to rank the two-time defending champs any lower than first. Dwyane Wade is getting older, and Chris Bosh was a shell of his former self in the NBA Finals against the Spurs (with the exception of the clutch offensive rebound and pass to Ray Allen in Game 6), but Lebron James masks any warts this team has. Lebron is at the peak of his powers, even adding 40% shooting on threes last season. Ray Allen has embraced his role with the Heat, stepping up when his name is called. Miami has the deepest bench in basketball, with a plethora of guys who can get hot and swing a game on any given night. If a medical miracle occurs and Greg Oden can somehow be healthy, you can cancel the 2014 Finals right now and give the trophy to the Heat.
Franchise Players = Guys that could be one of the two best
players on a championship contending team (example: Lebron James).
Fringe Stars = Guys that will put up numbers on a bad team,
but ideally, should be the third or fourth offensive option. This category also
covers elite defensive specialists and young players who haven’t made the leap
yet to franchise status (examples = Ty Lawson, Larry Sanders, Bradley Beal).
Supporting Cast = Guys that are capable of filling out an
NBA rotation. If you’re relying on them too much, good luck in the draft
lottery (example = Avery Bradley).
First Round Rookies = Rookies that will be on NBA rosters
this season. We didn’t include players that are stashed in Europe.
Without further ado, here are 6,500 words about NBA
basketball.
Riggin For Wiggins
30. Phoenix Suns
Franchise Players = NoneFringe Stars = PG Eric Bledsoe
Supporting Cast = PG Goran Dragic, C Emeka Okafor, PF Channing Frye
First Round Rookies = C Alex Len (1-5, Maryland)
Outlook = Phoenix is second in line for the “Riggins for Wiggins” sweepstakes, but unlike Philadelphia, it looks like the Suns have actually been trying to construct a competitive basketball team. Eric Bledsoe will finally have a crack at significant playing time, but it’s hard to see him and Goran Dragic coexisting in the same back court. It would make a ton of sense for Dragic to be shipped elsewhere. Marcin Gortat was the most valuable trade chip Phoenix had (his contract expires at the end of the season), and Phoenix didn’t wait long to ship him out of town. Emeka Okafor was acquired mostly because of his huge expiring contract, but if he’s able to return by season’s end could be a decent mentor for Alex Len. The Suns are primed to have a ton of ping balls in the 2014 Draft Lottery.
29. Philadelphia 76ers
Franchise Players = NoneFringe Stars = SF Thaddeus Young
Supporting Cast = SG Evan Turner, C Spencer Hawes, SG Jason Richardson
First Round Rookies = C Nerlens Noel (1-6, Kentucky, traded from Pelicans), PG Michael Carter-Williams (Syracuse, 1-11)
Outlook = 2013-14 is going to be pretty atrocious for the 76ers, but that is by design. They’ve blown the roster up in an effort to get as many young assets as possible. Nerlens Noel was the perfect acquisition for this sort of plan, as it’s unlikely he sees the court until sometime after New Years Day. Even better, New Orleans sent their 2014 first round pick along with Noel for the rights to Jrue Holliday, meaning they could have two ping-pong balls in the “Riggins for Wiggins” sweepstakes (more on New Orleans later). They could be trotting four lottery picks from back-to-back drafts this time next year. No team has a better five-year outlook than the Philadelphia 76ers, so remember that Philly fans when they finish 15-67 this year.
28. Charlotte Bobcats
Franchise Players = NoneFringe Stars = C Al Jefferson
Supporting Cast = SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, PG Kemba Walker, SG Gerald Henderson, SG Ben Gordon, PF Bismack Biyombo
First Round Rookies = PF Cody Zeller (1-4, Indiana)
Outlook = There’s a slight chance Charlotte isn’t putrid this season. Al Jefferson won’t play a lick of defense, but he’s the first low-post scorer the Bobcats have ever had. Kemba Walker was a pleasant surprise last season, but I still would prefer to see him in a sixth man role on a playoff team. Kidd-Gilchrist showed flashes last spring, and when healthy, Gerald Henderson is capable of filling the stat sheet. Ben Gordon has a very valuable $13 million expiring contract, meaning if the Bobcats play their cards right, they could be able to scoop up some extra draft picks from a club looking for salary cap relief. Charlotte will still have a great chance at the number one overall pick, but at least they finally have some direction.
27. Utah Jazz
Franchise Players = None Fringe Stars = PF Derrick Favors
Supporting Cast = SF Gordon Hayward, C Enes Kanter, SG Alec Burks, PF Marvin Williams
First Round Rookies = PG Trey Burke (1-9, Michigan, traded from Timberwolves)
Outlook = For the first time since immediately following the end of the Stockton-Malone era, the Jazz will not be in playoff contention this season. Part of that is by design, as they let Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap walk without receiving anything in return. More playing time for Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter is a good thing, as both have the look of quality NBA big men. Gordon Hayward is a solid scorer, but asking him to be the go-to scorer is ridiculous. Expect a lot of 4-18s out of Utah’s Great White Hope. Trey Burke has the talent to eventually be a Mike Conley-like point guard for the Jazz.
26. Boston Celtics
Franchise Players = PG Rajon RondoFringe Stars = SF Jeff Green
Supporting Cast = PG Avery Bradley, SG MarShon Brooks, PF Jared Sullinger, SF Gerald Wallace, PF Kris Humphries, SG Courtney Lee, PF Brandon Bass
First Round Rookies = PF Kelly Olynyk (1-13, Gonzaga, traded from Mavericks)
Outlook = I’ve flip-flopped 20 times on whether or not the Celtics will be terrible or mediocre. I guess we’ll split the difference and predict they will be bad. Until Rajon Rondo returns, it’s hard to envision how this team is going to score on a consistent basis. Jeff Green is the obvious first option, but has been wildly inconsistent throughout his NBA career, and shown no desire in being the star attraction. It looks like December or January is the time when a Rondo season debut is a possibility. What they do with Rondo will be very interesting, as he’s one of the few superstars in the league on a reasonable contract. You could argue either way, but No Credentials vote is to keep him. If the ping-pong balls hit right, Rondo paired with one of the studs from next years draft could immediately return the Celtics to relevance.
25. Orlando Magic
Franchise Players = NoneFringe Stars = C Nikola Vucevic
Supporting Cast = SF Tobias Harris, SG Arron Afflalo, PG Jameer Nelson, SF Hedo Turkoglu, PF Glen Davis
First Round Rookies = SG Victor Oladipo (1-2, Indiana)
Outlook = Orlando had a great off-season in the sense that they locked up a valuable piece, added a great young building block in the draft, but still are shitty enough that they’ll end up with a great draft pick next year. Nikola Vucevic is a rebounding machine that with an improved offensive game could eventually be a top-3 center in the NBA. Oladipo is a hyper active guard who at the very least will be a defensive stopper. Tobias Harris was the steal of last year’s trade deadline (he was the centerpiece in Milwaukee’s package for J.J. Reddick), and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him average 18 per game. In terms of expiring contracts, Jameer Nelson is the most valuable one, as he represents $8 million coming off the books next summer. He’s a point guard with playoff experience, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see him shipped to a contender in February.
Too Good For Wiggins, Too Shitty For the Playoffs
24. Sacramento Kings
Franchise Players = C DeMarcus CousinsFringe Stars = None
Supporting Cast = PG Greivis Vasquez, SG Marcus Thornton, PG Isaiah Thomas PF Carl Landry, PF Patrick Patterson, SF John Salmons, PF Chuck Hayes, PF Jason Thompson
First Round Rookies = SG Ben McLemore (1-7, Kansas)
Outlook = Six months ago it appeared to be inevitable that the Kings would end up relocating to Seattle, but miraculously California’s state capital was able to keep it’s one professional sports franchise. Unfortunately most of the same roster from a year ago is still intact. At least black hole Tyreke Evans has been moved to New Orleans, meaning that this team will officially run through DeMarcus Cousins. Whether that is a good or bad thing will depend entirely on if his head is screwed on straight. Besides Boogie, there’s a bunch of dudes you’d love to have coming off your bench surrounding him. Marcus Thornton has shown flashes of offensive brilliance, but is not nearly efficient enough to be your most reliable perimeter scorer (playoff teams should be checking in on him around the trade deadline. The guy could single-handedly swing a playoff game or two if he gets hot). How they distribute the minutes between Vasquez and Thomas will be interesting, as there’s no way strategically that they can be on the floor at the same time. Ben McLemore has the talent to eventually be a top-10 two-guard, but he looks like a guy that won’t fully show it in year one.
23. Atlanta Hawks
Franchise Players = C Al HorfordFringe Stars = PF Paul Millsap, PG Jeff Teague
Supporting Cast = SG Louis Williams, SG Kyle Korver, PF Elton Brand
First Round Rookies = PG Dennis Schroeder (1-17, Germany)
Outlook = Atlanta’s roster has basically been built around the premise of shedding salary to have money for free agency next season, which is ironic because elite free agents never sign with the Hawks. It wouldn’t be shocking to see them make a blockbuster trade in an effort to acquire a star caliber player (Rudy Gay anyone?). As for what is on the roster, the starting group is decent enough, but the bench leaves a lot to be desired. Al Horford and Paul Millsap will be one of the better low post pairings the NBA has to offer, but it’s tough to see how any offense is going to be initiated without Josh Smith. Barring a major trade, the Hawks will find themselves in the lottery for the first time in many years.
22. Los Angeles Lakers
Franchise Players = SG Kobe Bryant, PF Pau GasolFringe Stars = None
Supporting Cast = PG Steve Nash, C Chris Kaman, SG Nick Young, PG Steve Blake, SG Jodie Meeks, C Jordan Hill
First Round Rookies = None
Outlook = Not since the 2004-05 season (the year Shaq was traded to Miami) have the Lakers been in such a state of flux. Dwight Howard became the first marquee Lakers free agent to bolt for another franchise. Kobe’s recovery from a torn Achilles’ is the greatest unknown, as the question of when he will actually play has to be answered before we can see what level he can compete at. A fully healthy Bryant would have a hard time dragging this group into the playoffs. Pau Gasol and Steve Nash are the two Lakers whose situation actually improved from a year ago. Gasol will return to his rightful spot in the post, and Nash-Gasol pick-and-rolls have the chance to be devastating. Pau is a free agent after the season and could fetch himself one more max contract if he plays to his potential. The bench isn’t quite as atrocious as last season, but the Lakers are still one of the shallowest clubs in the NBA. Chris Kaman will make an impact when he’s healthy, and Nick Young is one of the more infamous irrational confidence guys the league has to offer. It’s going to be a rough year in Laker-land, but at least
21. Denver Nuggets
Franchise Players = NoneFringe Stars = PG Ty Lawson, PF Kenneth Faried, SF Danilo Gallinari
Supporting Cast = C JaVale McGee, SG Wilson Chandler, PG Andre Miller, PF J.J. Hickson, PG Nate Robinson, C Timofey Mozgov, SG Randy Foye, PF Darrell Arthur
First Round Rookies = None
Outlook = Normally a solid bet for landing somewhere between the fourth or eighth seed in the Western Conference, this is the year we see the wheels coming off a bit for the Nuggets. There are a lot of interesting parts, but figuring out how new coach Brian Shaw doles out minutes will go a long way in determining if this group can stay in playoff contention. Danilo Gallinari will miss a large chunk of time at the beginning of the year, which is a killer to a team that relies so heavily on three-point shooting. Ty Lawson will have to shoulder a larger scoring load as long as Gallinari is out. JaVale McGee finally appears to be slated to get regular minutes, but we aren’t sure if more of McGee is a good thing. When he’s engaged, there are few big men who impact the game on the defensive end as much as him. We see the Nuggets sliding out of their usual top-8 finishing spot and ending up in the lottery next spring.
20. Toronto Raptors
Franchise Players = NoneFringe Stars = SF Rudy Gay, SG DeMar DeRozan, PG Kyle Lowry,
Supporting Cast = C Jonas Valanciunas, PF Amir Johnson, SF Landry Fields, PF Austin Daye, SF Steve Novak, PF Tyler Hansbrough, SG Terrance Ross
Rookies = None
Outlook = If you want to make a bet on which NBA team will brick the most 15-foot jump shots this season, look no further than the Raptors. Rudy Gay is paid like a franchise player, but has never demonstrated in his NBA career that he’s capable of carrying one. Kyle Lowry stuffs the stat sheet, but his difficult personality rubs teammates and coaches the wrong way on too many occasions. DeMar DeRozan would be best suited as a sixth man, but he is fantastic and attacking the rim and getting to the foul line. Amir Johnson has plenty of skills that would benefit a championship caliber team, but unfortunately he’s buried in Toronto. The greatest wildcard on the Raptors roster is Jonas Valanciunas. If he makes a leap, the Andrea Bargnani trade will go down as a brilliant move.
Furiously Battling For the Right to Get Swept in the First Round
19. Milwaukee Bucks
Franchise Players = None
Fringe Stars = C Larry Sanders, SG O.J. Mayo
Supporting Cast = SF Ersan Ilyasova, PG Brandon Knight, SF Caron Butler, SG Carlos Delfino, PG Gary Neal, PG Luke Ridnour, PF John Henson
First Round Rookies = SG Giannis Antetokounmpo (1-15, Europe)
Outlook = There isn’t another team in the NBA with a weirder assortment of wing players. Gone are Brandon Jennings and Monte Ellis, and in are O.J. Mayo and a bunch of dudes who are best served coming off the bench. If nothing else, they do have the chance to roll out a spunky small-ball lineup. Larry Sanders is slated to receive the largest amount of minutes he’s ever gotten, but he needs to limit his fouls in order to reach his full potential. If he does, a defensive player of the year award is within reach. We also can’t sleep on the Greek rookie who has 36 letters in his last name. Ultimately, this looks like a group that could finish anywhere between eighth or twelfth in the Eastern Conference.
18. New Orleans Pelicans
Franchise Players = PF Anthony DavisFringe Stars = PG Jrue Holiday, SG Tyreke Evans, SG Eric Gordon, C Ryan Anderson
Supporting Cast = SG Anthony Morrow, SF Al-Farouq Aminu
First Round Rookies = None
Outlook = What do you get when have an owner who is demanding to win now, and a general manager desperate to stay employed past this season? Your 2013-14 New Orleans Pelicans. It would appear on paper that this team has no depth (in good conscious, we couldn’t list Austin Rivers as a supporting cast member after his epically abysmal rookie campaign), and very little defense. However, if their top five players click offensively, watch out. Many experts are concerned how the Holiday-Evans-Gordon trio will function. One option would be having Evans or Gordon function as the sixth man. Evans does have the size needed to play the three, but has never shown in his Kings’ days that he has any interest in team defense. If Anthony Davis carries his preseason performance into the regular season campaign, that might not matter. Davis looks fully prepared to continue his journey of becoming the next Kevin Garnett. In a year where New Orleans needs to win in order to ensure that the draft pick they traded to Philadelphia for the rights to Jrue Holiday doesn’t end up in the lottery, we predict that they will come up just short of that goal.
17. New York Knicks
Franchise Players = SF Carmelo AnthonyFringe Stars = C Tyson Chandler, PF Amar’e Stoudemire, SG J.R. Smith, PG Raymond Felton
Supporting Cast = PF Andrea Bargnani, SF Metta World Peace, SG Iman Shumpert, PF Kenyon Martin, PG Beno Udrih
First Round Rookies = SG Tim Hardaway Jr. (1-24, Michigan)
Outlook = You’ll have to look real hard to find an odder assortment of front court players than what the New York Knicks have thrown together. Carmelo Anthony thrived when he played the 4 in a small-ball lineup, but this is a team that employs three capable power forwards already. The Andrea Bargnani trade adds floor spacing, but if he’s playing center when Tyson Chandler is on the bench, there is going to be a lay-up line at the other end of the court. Metta World Peace can guard larger wings, and Iman Shumpert is an emerging defensive stopper of either guard position, so perhaps the lack of rim protection can be mitigated. Tyson Chandler, J.R. Smith, and Raymond Felton all either wore down or fell apart mentally by the end of there second round series against Indian. Chandler in particular was a mess, and had the look of a player in serious physical decline. Kenyon Martin does bring some toughness if Chandler is unable to play to his full potential, but lacks the size to dominate the boards. New York should treat anything Amar’e Stoudemire offers this season as a bonus. The Knicks have a bunch of parts, but on paper we just don’t see them gelling this year in a deeper Eastern Conference.
Wildcards
16. Cleveland Cavaliers
Franchise Players = PG Kyrie Irving, C Andrew BynumFringe Stars = PF Anderson Varejao, PF Tristan Thompson, PG Jarrett Jack
Supporting Cast = SG Dion Waiters, SG Alonzo Gee, SF Earl Clark, SG C.J. Miles
First Round Rookies = PF Anthony Bennett (1-1, UNLV), SG Sergey Karasev (1-19, Russia)
Outlook = If you could guarantee that Kyrie Irving and Andrew Bynum would be healthy for the majority of the year, you could make the case that Cleveland would have enough firepower to make an Eastern Conference Finals run. Unfortunately, it’s more likely that snow will fall in Hawaii. Kyrie Irving has missed significant time in both of his two NBA seasons (and for that matter, his only year at Duke), but when he’s on the court he’s arguably a top-5 scorer in THE NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION. Bynum’s injury woes are even more problematic. It’s easy to forget that when he’s healthy, he’s among the top-5 centers in the league. Surrounding these two is a slew of talented role players. Anderson Varejao is another oft-injured commodity that is a stat stuffer when on the court. If Bynum shows some reliability, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Varejao shipped out of town. Tristan Thompson really came into his own after Varejao went down last year, and Cleveland just extended him through the 2015 season. He’s a dreadful free-throw shooter but has the talent to post 10+ boards every night. Dion Waiters is a streaky shooter who would be best served filling a sixth man role. Jarrett Jack is an interesting addition, as he gives Cleveland the ability to play Irving off the ball if need be. It’s hard to see where Anthony Bennett fits into the picture this year, but long term he has the talent to be a star. Many league experts think there’s a chance Lebron James returns to the Cavaliers next summer, and if he does, he’ll have plenty of talent around him. Even if Cleveland is in playoff contention, don’t be shocked to see them swing deals at the trade deadline that set them up with more cap space for next year.
15. Washington Wizards
Franchise Players = PG John WallFringe Stars = SG Bradley Beal, PF Nene Hilario, C Marcin Gortat
Supporting Cast = SF Trevor Ariza, PF Al Harrington, SG Martell Webster, SF Jan Vesely, SF Josh Childress
First Round Rookies = SF Otto Porter Jr. (1-3, Georgetown)
Outlook = At first glance, having Washington ranked this high seems pretty ridiculous, but we’re putting a ton of stock into how the Wizards played the final two months of last season. John Wall was one of the top point guards during the league during that stretch (he directly impacted the championship in the No Credentials Fantasy Basketball League last year), and Washington reaching their potential hinges largely on him. Bradley Beal is also a piece of the puzzle. He looked lost to start his rookie year, but really turned it on after the All-Star break. It isn’t much of a stretch to predict he will end up as a top-10 shooting guard in the league by the end of the year. Hilario and Gortat form a formidable defensive pair down low. Washington’s acquisition of Gortat from Phoenix also allows Nene to move to his more natural spot at power forward. There are a slew of solid bench players here that on any given night can give the Wizards’ offense a jolt. It wouldn’t be fair to expect too much out of Otto Porter Jr., as it looks like he will have a similar rookie season to what Michael Kidd-Gilchrist had last season.
14. Detroit Pistons
Franchise Players = SF Josh SmithFringe Stars = PF Greg Monroe, PG Brandon Jennings, C Andre Drummond
Supporting Cast = PG Rodney Stuckey, SG Kyle Singler, PF Charlie Villanueva, PG Chauncey Billups
First Round Rookies = SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (1-8, Georgia)
Outlook = Detroit has been so bad the last few years that it’s hard to believe that they were one of the elite clubs in the Eastern Conference during the middle part of the ‘00s. It’s fitting that Chauncey Billups has returned to Detroit in a reserve role, as the Pistons finally look to return to competitive form this season. The additions of Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings are massive upgrades. Smith is an elite defender who can guard players on the wing or in the post. Jennings isn’t the most efficient player on Earth, but when he gets on a run he can carry an offense. It’s unclear how a frontcourt of Smith-Monroe-Drummond will function (there could be some major floor spacing issues), but the Pistons do have some shooters they can mix in and out of the lineup to help alleviate that. Smith’s flexibility also gives Detroit the freedom to play small if necessary. Drummond is on the short list of players who could make the leap to “Franchise Player” status before the season is done.
13. Minnesota Timberwolves
Franchise Players = PF Kevin LoveFringe Stars = PG Ricky Rubio, C Nikola Pekovic, SG Kevin Martin
Supporting Cast = PG J.J. Barea, SF Corey Brewer, SG Alexey Shved, PF Dante Cunningham, SF Chase Budinger, PF Derrick Williams
First Round Rookies = SF Shabazz Muhammad (1-14, UCLA, traded from Jazz)
Outlook = Ravaged by injuries a year ago, Minnesota will finally have the Love-Rubio duo on the court at the same time. Kevin Love should be in a much happier place now that ex-general manager David Kahn has finally been kicked out the door. Rubio was woefully rusty when he first returned last season, but his final month stretch showed what he’s capable of when healthy. Kevin Martin was much maligned after he no-showed the second round of the playoffs for the Thunder last season, but he’s still a deadly three-point shooter when he can be your third option. Look for Rubio to get him plenty of open looks. Pekovic was given a healthy contract extension, and is the ideal rim protector to pair with Kevin Love. Out of their supporting cast, someone needs to emerge as a sixth man who can score. Derrick Williams has the most upside, but has shown nothing in his first couple of years in the league to validate being the second player taken in the draft. Corey Brewer provides exceptional perimeter defense that the Timberwolves lost when Andrei Kirilenko bolted for the Nets. Health permitting, Minnesota should be in the thick of the Western Conference playoff race.
12. Portland Trail Blazers
Franchise Players = PF LaMarcus Aldridge
Fringe Stars = SF Nicolas Batum, PG Damian Lilliard, SG Wesley Matthews
Supporting Cast = C Robin Lopez, PG Mo Williams, SF Dorell Wright, PF Thomas Robinson
First Round Rookies = PG C.J. McCollum (1-10, Lehigh)
Outlook = Last season, Portland trotted out one of the most efficient starting fives in the NBA, but was undone by one of the worst benches in the league. While the starting core remains intact, Portland aggressively moved to fix their bench issues. Mo Williams and Dorell Wright are both capable of producing sixth man of the year numbers. Robin Lopez might not post the huge rebound totals J.J. Hickson did last year, but he’s a better rim protector who will improve Portland’s overall team defense. LaMarcus Aldridge is one of the top-5 scoring power forwards in the league, but it will take another step in production from Nicolas Batum to lift this team into championship contention. Portland isn’t one of the favorites, but consider them a dark horse to make noise come playoff time.
11. Dallas Mavericks
Franchise Players = PF Dirk NowitzkiFringe Stars = SG Monta Ellis, PG Jose Calderon
Supporting Cast = SF Shawn Marion, SG Vince Carter, C Samuel Dalembert, C Brandon Wright, PG Devin Harris, C DeJuan Blair
First Round Rookies = PG Shane Larkin (1-18, Miami, traded from Hawks)
Outlook = We’ll say this for the Mavericks…at least they actually tried to put competent NBA players around Dirk Nowitzki. Unfortunately, unless Shawn Marion or Samuel Dalembert is on the floor, none of them will want to play defense. Nowitzki looks poised for a massive bounce back year, as he was slowly rounding into shape by the end of last season. How the backcourt gels will ultimately determine the ceiling of Dallas. Monta Ellis is among the most relentless guards in the NBA, but he’s also among the most inefficient. Coach Rick Carlisle might be the right coach that can get the most out of him. Jose Calderon couldn’t ask to have been placed in a better situation, as his game is similar to a poor man’s Steve Nash (circa 2007). Dallas hasn’t had a point guard presence like this since Nash left after the 2003-04 season. Shawn Marion and Vince Carter are steady veterans out on the wing who still provide more value than you would think. In the end, expect a top-5 scoring team, along with a bottom-five defensive unit, with the chance of maybe sneaking into the second round.
10. Golden State Warriors
Franchise Players = PG Stephen CurryFringe Stars = SG Klay Thompson, SF Andre Iguodala, C Andrew Bogut, PF David Lee
Supporting Cast = SF Harrison Barnes, SF Draymond Green
Rookies = None
Outlook = Miami might have been crowned the NBA champions, but there wasn’t a more entertaining team in last year’s playoffs than the Golden State Warriors. Most of that can be credited to their three-point shooting blitz, led by the dynamic duo of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. Curry has dealt with ankle issues throughout his NBA career, but there is no doubt that when healthy he can be the centerpiece of a championship team. Thompson showed tremendous versatility in the playoffs, and another leap by him would give the Warriors the best backcourt in basketball. Andre Iguodala provides much-needed defense on the wing, and has the passing ability to facilitate three-point shooting. Golden State really took off once David Lee went down, so it will be interesting to see how he’s utilized this season. The Warriors have rarely had both him and Andrew Bogut healthy at the same time. Bogut is the key to any championship aspirations the Warriors might have. He provides much needed rim-protection. Harrison Barnes will likely be relegated to a sixth man role, which isn’t a bad thing. He often performed at his best when he was forced to be the lead scoring option last season. Golden State doesn’t appear to be very deep, but with good health and reasonable player development, they are again a dark horse in the Western Conference.
9. Memphis Grizzlies
Franchise Players = C Marc Gasol, PF Zach RandolphFringe Stars = PG Mike Conley
Supporting Cast = SG Tony Allen, C Kosta Koufos, PG Jerryd Bayless, SF Tayshaun Prince, SF Mike Miller, PF Ed Davis, PF Jon Leuer
Rookies = None
Outlook = There isn’t another team in the league more likely to play in more games where neither team scores 90 points than the Memphis Grizzlies. Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph make a very formidable pair down low, but there isn’t enough floor spacing around them to take advantage of it. Tony Allen is one of the top-5 wing defenders in the league, but his atrocious shooting makes it difficult for him to be on the court in crunch time. It will likely take another leap from Mike Conley (who is a very solid point guard, but you don’t always want your offense being initiated by him) for Memphis to have all the ingredients for a championship basketball team. At this point in his career, that would seem unlikely. The Grizzlies will be the most physical team in the league to match up with on a nightly basis, but there isn’t enough firepower here to get them out of the Western Conference.
Title Contenders
8. Indiana Pacers
Franchise Players = SG Paul George, C Roy HibbertFringe Stars = PF David West, SF Danny Granger, PG George Hill
Supporting Cast = SG Lance Stephenson, PF Luis Scola, PG C.J. Watson
First Round Rookies = SF Solomon Hill (1-23, Arizona)
Outlook = Indiana employed one of the most devastating five-man units in all of basketball last year when they had Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert on the court. The problem was, the bench was atrocious. There wasn’t one viable bench option that could be relied upon on a nightly basis. The Pacers partially patched their bench issues with the acquisitions of Luis Scola and C.J. Watson. Scola is a plus post scorer who can give quality minutes when David West or Roy Hibbert is on the bench. Watson isn’t spectacular, but at least he isn’t D.J. Augustin. The great equalizer for the Pacers could be the expiring contract of Danny Granger. How they use this valuable trade chip could put Indiana over the top.
7. Brooklyn Nets
Franchise Players = PG Deron Williams, C Brook LopezFringe Stars = SF Paul Pierce, SG Joe Johnson, PF Kevin Garnett, SF Andrei Kirilenko
Supporting Cast = PF Andray Blatche, SG Jason Terry, PF Reggie Evans, SG Alan Anderson
First Round Rookies = PF Mason Plumlee (1-22, Duke)
Outlook = What happens when the Russian Mafia decides to fund a basketball team? This conglomerate of talent, which is unlike any we’ve ever seen before. Not in the history of modern man have so many overpriced commodities been put together on one team. At least the team should be competitive. This is really a put up or shut up year for Deron Williams, who has no excuses with all the talent around him. Depending on how he handles it, Brook Lopez will benefit the most from getting to spend time with Garnett. Joe Johnson’s play also stands to gain, as he can revert more to his style of play from his Phoenix Suns days. There is plenty of depth here, which assures that Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett will not have to be overextended during the regular season. Anything short of an appearance in the second round of the playoffs would be a disappointment.
6. Oklahoma City Thunder
Franchise Players = SF Kevin Durant, PG Russell WestbrookFringe Stars = PF Serge Ibaka
Supporting Cast = SG Thabo Sefolosha, PF Nick Collison, PG Reggie Jackson, C Kendrick Perkins, SF Ryan Gomes
First Round Rookies = C Steven Adams (1-12, Pittsburgh)
No team’s front office has done more harm to its roster over the past year than the Oklahoma City Thunder. The now infamous James Harden trade (which by my count, needs a breakout year from Jeremy Lamb to be remotely justifiable) coupled with the stubborn loyalty to Kendrick Perkins has done irrevocable harm to what was once the best young group in the NBA. Kevin Durant is still the second best player in the NBA, but he’ll have to do it the first month without Russell Westbrook. Serge Ibaka did nothing in the playoffs to try to ease the blow of losing Westbrook (in fact, he posted virtually identical stats after Westbrook got hurt as he did before the injury), and a leap from him is desperately needed. He has the talent, but last year didn’t show the appropriate level of assertiveness. Thabo Sefolosha is a defensive specialist who also has 3-point shooting ability. With Kevin Martin in Minnesota, he’ll see more playing time. Reggie Jackson is a streaky shooter who should be able to fill in sufficiently while Westbrook is out. Oklahoma City isn’t the prohibitive favorite in the West like they were last season, but maybe that isn’t a bad thing.
5. Los Angeles Clippers
Franchise Players = PG Chris Paul, PF Blake GriffinFringe Stars = SG J.J. Redick, SG Jamal Crawford, C DeAndre Jordan
Supporting Cast = SG J.J. Redick, SF Matt Barnes, PG Darren Collison, SG Jared Dudley, C Byron Mullens
First Round Rookies = SG Reggie Bullock (1-25, North Carolina)
Outlook = Will the hiring of Doc Rivers be the final piece that lifts the Clippers into true championship contention? We know it can’t hurt now that Vinny Del Negro is no longer involved. After taking a step back last season, we expect Doc to get the most out of Blake Griffin. Blake needs to develop a consistent 15-footer to truly reach superstar status. Chris Paul will do his usual Chris Paul things, and he has plenty of great shooters to work with. J.J. Redick couldn’t of picked a better spot to land in free agency, as he is an ideal floor spacer. Resigning Matt Barnes was an unexpected bonus, as he brought much needed perimeter defense to the table. Darren Collison has been a disappointment ever since his breakout run subbing for an injured Chris Paul in 2010 for the Hornets, but he may be better suited for a bench role. Jared Dudley is also an underrated edition that brings plenty of versatility to the table. They may not be the favorite, but the Clippers will be a force to be reckoned with come playoff time.
4. Houston Rockets
Franchise Players = SG James Harden, C Dwight HowardFringe Stars = SF Chandler Parsons, PG Jeremy Lin, C Omer Asik
Supporting Cast = PG Patrick Beverly, SG Reggie Williams, SF Omri Casspi, SG Francisco Garcia
Rookies = None
Outlook = The unquestioned winner of the past two off-seasons, Houston finally has all the parts needed to make a serious title run. Reaching their ceiling depends entirely on whether or not they get the 2008-09 version of Dwight Howard. If they do, this is a more athletic version of the Orlando Magic squad D-12 dragged to the NBA Finals. James Harden is the perfect compliment to him, as he is more than qualified to carry the offensive load in crunch time. Chandler Parsons will benefit from sliding down to the third option offensively, and should be a more efficient player because of it. There’s some healthy competition at the point guard spot with Patrick Beverly nipping at the heels of Jeremy Lin. Beverly is the more complete defensive player, so don’t be shocked if he has the gig locked up by New Year’s. Either way, Lin will be a valuable offensive asset, with hitting the bench perhaps being in the best interest of the team. Omer Asik doesn’t project to be able to share the floor with Howard, and likely will have to be moved. He’s a great rebounder so don’t be shocked if Houston makes a mutually beneficial swap with an Eastern Conference club. If they can have chemistry established before the playoffs, the Rockets could be the team to knock off Miami in the Finals.
3. San Antonio Spurs
Franchise Players = PG Tony Parker, PF Tim DuncanFringe Stars = SF Kawhi Leonard, SG Manu Ginobili
Supporting Cast = C Tiago Splitter, SG Danny Green, SG Marco Belinelli, PF Boris Diaw, PF Matt Bonner
Rookies = None
Outlook = Normally, we worry about how a team will react to a devastating championship loss, but the Spurs are a different animal. We expect Greg Popovich (who sort of acted like he had money on the Heat during last year’s Finals, but we can save that conversation for another day) to have his group refocused. Duncan and Ginobili are another year older (which especially in Manu’s case, isn’t a good thing), but that might not matter much if Kawhi Leonard can translate his play from last season’s Finals into a full regular season. It could be argued that at times he was the second best player on the court against the Heat. An expanded role for Leonard will take a ton of heat off of the aging core of the team. Tony Parker is still in the prime of his career, and will maintain his place as the engine of the offense. Tiago Splitter was resigned, and may see some more low-post looks. Danny Green and Marco Belinelli in the fold, and each have the 3-point ability to swing games on their own. The road to the Finals will be tougher, but the Spurs still have the talent to get there.
2. Chicago Bulls
Franchise Players = PG Derrick Rose, C Joakim NoahFringe Stars = SF Luol Deng, PF Carlos Boozer, SG Jimmy Butler
Supporting Cast = PF Taj Gibson, PG Kirk Hinrich, SG Mike Dunleavy
First Round Rookies = SF Tony Snell (1-20, New Mexico)
Outlook = Has anyone’s preseason performance ever been more scrutinized than Derrick Rose? I’d say no, but it’s with good reason. After sitting out all of last year, Rose looks to be very close to his MVP form of 2010-11. Rose returns to a more talented team that also has the flexibility to make a blockbuster trade if it chooses too. Luol Deng and Carlos Boozer are both on expiring contracts that could be used to bring in a quality asset (Boogie Cousins? Al Horford? Pau Gasol?). For the first time in his career, Rose has an emerging shooting guard alongside him in Jimmy Butler. Butler is a stat stuffer who does everything Coach Thibodeau asks him to do. Joakim Noah took a leap while Rose was out last year, putting the Bulls on his back on several occasions. Gibson, Hinrich, and Mike Dunleavy form a solid bench that gives Chicago a reliable top-8 come playoff time. They aren’t the best bet to win the title right now, but the right trade could push them over the edge.
The Favorite
1. Miami Heat
Franchise Players = SF Lebron James, SG Dwyane WadeFringe Stars = PF Chris Bosh, SG Ray Allen
Supporting Cast = PF Chris Anderson, PG Mario Chalmers, PF Udonis Haslem, PG Norris Cole, SF Shane Battier, SF Michael Beasley, C Greg Oden
Rookies = None
Outlook = It would be irresponsible to rank the two-time defending champs any lower than first. Dwyane Wade is getting older, and Chris Bosh was a shell of his former self in the NBA Finals against the Spurs (with the exception of the clutch offensive rebound and pass to Ray Allen in Game 6), but Lebron James masks any warts this team has. Lebron is at the peak of his powers, even adding 40% shooting on threes last season. Ray Allen has embraced his role with the Heat, stepping up when his name is called. Miami has the deepest bench in basketball, with a plethora of guys who can get hot and swing a game on any given night. If a medical miracle occurs and Greg Oden can somehow be healthy, you can cancel the 2014 Finals right now and give the trophy to the Heat.
Monday, May 6, 2013
10 Awesome Things That Happened This Weekend (5/3-5/5)
10. Hanley Ramirez Lands on the DL…Again
I hope his fantasy owners enjoyed the 11 at-bats they got out of him, because that’s probably all they’ll get until June.
Those 48 hours when everyone was pumped about an NBA team coming back from a 3-0 deficit for the first time were pretty fun.
5. Penguins Win Wild Game 3 in Overtime
You have to give the plucky Islanders credit for giving Pittsburgh a fight in Games 2 and 3, but expect the Penguins to win the next two.
3. David Ragan Scores Improbable Victory at Talladega
NASCAR was bailed out for some horrendous decision making (namely, restarting the race after 90% of the crowd had gone home, forcing the cars to run in the dark at 200 mph) by Front Row Motorsports miraculous march through the field on the final lap.
I hope his fantasy owners enjoyed the 11 at-bats they got out of him, because that’s probably all they’ll get until June.
9. Regan Smith Makes Daring Move to Win Nationwide at
Talladega
I’d
bitch about NASCAR making the Nationwide guys drive in the dark,
but they crash so much anyway I don’t think the extra light really matters.
8. Thunder Put Away Pesky Rockets
7. Knicks End an Era in BostonThose 48 hours when everyone was pumped about an NBA team coming back from a 3-0 deficit for the first time were pretty fun.
6. Grizzlies Eliminate Coaching-Deficient Clippers
Assuming Chris Paul doesn’t sign with another team,
losing in the first round and getting to can Vinny Del Negro will
probably be the best thing that could’ve happened to the Clippers.5. Penguins Win Wild Game 3 in Overtime
You have to give the plucky Islanders credit for giving Pittsburgh a fight in Games 2 and 3, but expect the Penguins to win the next two.
4. Thunder Hold Off Grizzlies For Game 1 Win
Is it possible that it took the Thunder a couple of
games to recalibrate their offense without Russell Westbrook?
If they hold serve in Game 2, you can book the Thunder for a date with the
Spurs in the Conference Finals.3. David Ragan Scores Improbable Victory at Talladega
NASCAR was bailed out for some horrendous decision making (namely, restarting the race after 90% of the crowd had gone home, forcing the cars to run in the dark at 200 mph) by Front Row Motorsports miraculous march through the field on the final lap.
2. Pacers Steal Game 1 at Madison Square Garden
Indiana is one of the few teams in the NBA that can make the Knicks pay for playing Carmelo Anthony at the four.
1. Orb Wins a Muddy Kentucky Derby
I’d
like to thank Normandy Invasion for giving No Credentials a solid ten seconds where we thought we’d actually make money.Friday, April 19, 2013
Quick NBA First Round Playoff Picks
#1 Miami Heat vs. #8 Milwaukee Bucks
Get your brooms ready.
Grizzlies over Clippers 4-2
Get your brooms ready.
Heat over Bucks 4-0
#2 New York Knicks vs. #7 Boston Celtics
Maybe
it’s being a homer, maybe it’s believing in things bigger than basketball
propelling a team to great things, but I see Boston putting on a show in the
first round.Celtics over Knicks 4-2
#3 Indiana Pacers vs. #6 Atlanta Hawks
When
you already can’t shoot against an average NBA defense, the Indiana Pacers are
not a team you want to play.Pacers over Hawks 4-1
#4 Brooklyn Nets vs. #5 Chicago Bulls
If
Derrick Rose were 100%, this would be a Bulls sweep. As it is, it will take a
superb effort by Deron Williams to push the Nets into the second round. I don’t
think it will happen.Bulls over Nets 4-3
#1 Oklahoma City Thunders vs. #8 Houston Rockets
How
lucky are we to see James Harden and his beard face off against his former team
in the first round? This is going to be the most entertaining round 1 series.Thunder over Rockets 4-3
#2 San Antonio Spurs vs. #7 Los Angeles Lakers
There
are absolutely no perimeter players the Lakers have that can hang with the
incredible depth the Spurs have. Los Angeles might be wishing they missed the
playoffs when this series is over.Spurs over Lakers 4-0
#3 Denver Nuggets vs. #6 Golden State Warriors
For
my money, the hardest series to forecast. If Denver hadn’t been battered by
injuries, I’d pick them to sweep. Nuggets over Warriors 4-3
#4 Los Angeles Clippers vs. #5 Memphis Grizzlies
Has
there ever been a more disorganized playoff team than the Clippers? I think
their crunch-time offense is called “Uh, Chris Paul go do something cool”.Grizzlies over Clippers 4-2
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Blow Out the Budget 2012-13 NBA Preview
Here’s
a quick, 4,000-word preview of all 30 NBA teams. We rank them in reverse order of
which teams are the most likely to win the NBA title. Top-100 players are based
on the ESPN poll conducted this past summer (numerous experts voted to
determine the rank of the top-500 players in the league. Figured we’d get a
little expert analysis mixed in with this blog for a change). Projects are players
under the age of 25 (with one exception, I’ll give a free chocolate munchkin to
the person who finds him) who No Credentials feels have the potential to be
ranked a top-100 player within the next three seasons. Without further ado,
here is the worst team in professional sports.
Projects = SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, C Bismack Biyombo
Outlook = Kidd-Gilchrist is a nice building block, but it’s going to take a couple of more before this team is remotely competitive. Expect them to be one of two teams with the best odds at the number one pick at next May’s draft lottery.
Projects = C Nikola Vucevic
Outlook = Experts gave Orlando a bunch of shit for what they received back in the Dwight Howard trade, but I’ll go in the opposite direction. What is the point of acquiring solid, mid-level players and setting yourself up to be at best a #5 seed every year, when instead you can bottom out and have a chance at acquiring a franchise player in the draft? For the long-term, it makes sense to assemble an awful team over a mediocre one. They did a decent enough job dumping salary. Players like Jameer Nelson and J.J. Redick will have trade value for contending teams (Hedo Turkoglu though…not so much), which they can receive expiring contracts and more draft picks in return. I’ll sign off on the long-term plan of the Orlando Magic.
Projects = PG Brandon Knight, PF Andre Drummond
Outlook = Detroit is not going anywhere until Joe Dumars is removed from the front office. If Andre Drummond is Hasheem Thabeet 2.0, that might be the nail in the coffin for his employment.
Projects = SG Bradley Beal, PF Jan Vesely
Outlook = A healthy John Wall would bump the Wizards somewhere in the 20-24 range, but his injury to start the first month or two of the season is a killer. Perhaps sucking wouldn’t be such a bad idea, as Washington is a small forward short of a very solid foundation.
Projects = SG DeMar DeRozan, PF Ed Davis, C Jonas Valanciunas
Outlook = Toronto still needs to make a move (you aren’t trotting Lowry and Calderon out on the court together) before we can fully judge the long-term outlook of this team.
Projects = PG Kendall Marshall, SF Michael Beasley
Projects = PG Jimmer Fredette, PG Isaiah Thomas, PF Thomas Robinson
Outlook = With the exception of Cousins (who if he keeps his head on straight, should become the most dominant scoring big man in the league within the next two years), this team is full of guys who could be the third or fourth best players on a playoff team given the right situation. Unfortunately, Sacramento does not qualify as the right situation. Ultimately, what the club decides to do with Tyreke Evans will determine the long-term trajectory of the Kings. He’s been a ball-stopper who hasn’t progressed at all since a promising rookie season. Evans is the classic player who is over qualified to be a sixth man, but not good enough to be your franchise guy. The wise move would be to ship Evans to a contender in need of scoring wing players (Chicago Bulls? Denver Nuggets? Utah Jazz?) and continue to build around Cousins. We’ll see what they do when the trade deadline nears.
Projects = SG Jeremy Lamb, PF Royce White
Outlook = Houston’s main objective during the off-season was to be involved in the Dwight Howard trade, either obtaining Howard or facilitating the trade to get another franchise player. Incredibly, Houston not only didn’t get Howard, but also had to watch Andrew Bynum end up in Philadelphia. There are still plenty of assets left, so expect Houston to try to bottom out and clear cap space for the summer of 2013.
Projects = SG Alec Burks, SF Gordon Hayward, PF Enes Kanter
Outlook = It’s a slight problem when the three best players on your team can’t be on the court together at the same time. Even more troubling, their best project, Enes Kanter, can’t roll with more than one of those players either. If I was put in charge of the Jazz for one day, I’m shipping Jefferson and Millsap out of town and rolling with the kids.
Projects = SF Chase Budinger, PF Derrick Williams
Outlook = There isn't a bigger dissapointing development in the NBA preseason than Kevin Love's broken hand. Minnesota was poised to break out after finally ditching some dead weight (bye-bye Michael Beasley) and adding an important glue-guy (AK47) that the Timberwolves have never had since Kevin Garnett left for Boston. If Derrick Williams can finally show some life, there's a chance that the Timberwolves can weather the storm and stay within reach of a playoff spot, but odds are Minnesota will spend one more year in the lottery before making the playoff leap in 2014.
20. Cleveland Cavaliers
Top 100 Players = PG Kyrie Irving (22), PF Anderson Varejao (74)
Projects = SG Dion Waiters, PF Tristan Thompson, C Tyler Zeller
Outlook = During the 2011 NBA Draft, the main topic of conversation was the lack of a franchise player. The experts were wrong. Kyrie Irving exceeded all reasonable expectations in a spectacular rookie campaign, even having the Cavaliers in playoff contention until Anderson Varejao was lost for the season. The sooner Dion Waiters (who’s looked solid so far in preseason) and Tristan Thompson get up to speed, the sooner Cleveland will return to the playoffs.
Projects = SG Austin Rivers, SF Al-Farouq Aminu
Outlook = For all the hoopla over the controversial Chris Paul trade, New Orleans came out smelling like roses. Anthony Davis will be a Kevin Garnett like presence for the Hornets for the next decade. Eric Gordon resigned, and while health is always a concern with him (I drafted him in the third round of my fantasy draft last year, so I know this better than most), he has the potential to be the best 2-guard in the league. While not a sure thing, if Austin Rivers can somehow develop into a Russell Westbrook-like point guard, New Orleans suddenly has one of the strongest foundations in the league. Short term, a lack of big bodies should keep them out of the playoffs (Ryan Anderson is a terrific 3-point shooter who can stretch a defense, but his defensive ability in the post lives much to be desired), but the future is bright. By stock in the 2014-15 Hornets.
Projects = SG Doron Lamb, PF John Henson
Outlook = Golden State confirmed over the past three seasons that an under-sized backcourt with Monta Ellis as one of the components will not get you to the playoffs, which makes it all the more curious that they shipped out Andrew Bogut to pair Ellis with Brandon Jennings. They’ll win their share or run-and-gun shootouts, but the Bucks best-case scenario this year is an eighth seed.
Projects = PG Damian Lillard, PF J.J. Hickson
Outlook = Hard to believe that the Trail Blazers were favored to beat the Dallas Mavericks in the first round of the 2011 NBA playoffs after they completely imploded last season. LaMarcus Aldridge is a legitimate 20 PPG scorer, but unless Batum or Lillard breaks out, it’s hard see where other baskets will come from on this team.
Projects = PG Rodrigue Beaubois, PF Brandon Wright
Outlook = Knees that repeatedly swell are not a good thing, but that’s what Dirk Nowitzki has been dealing with for the past few months (QUICK TANGENT ALERT: Kobe Bryant went to Germany last off-season to have platelet’s injected into his knee. Isn’t that where Dirk Nowitzki is from? You’re telling me he couldn’t have gotten the Kobe treatment at a discount price?) He’s going to miss the first month of the season. There are enough pieces here to keep the team within range of a playoff spot, but if Dirk’s absence lingers into January, the Mavericks will likely be sellers at the trade deadline.
Projects = SG Klay Thompson, SF Harrison Barnes
Outlook = What’s the greatest “if” statement in the NBA right now? It’s “if” Stephen Curry can stay healthy. “If” he does, he has two legitimate big men (and amazingly, one that can actually play defense) and two exciting wing players (No Credentials likes Harrison Barnes in Golden State. He’ll flourish “if” Curry stays healthy). The one downer on this whole argument is that Andrew Bogut isn’t exactly a model of health either. If he goes down, Golden State reverts to a “lose 120-112” style of play that will leave them short of a playoff berth. File Golden State away as an intriguing sleeper team if they can get a few lucky breaks.
Projects = PG Jeff Teague
Outlook = You’re opinion of the 2012-13 prospects of the Hawks depends on your feelings on Joe Johnson. If you think that Johnson was their only player that could get his own shot, you’re downgrading them. If you think Johnson was a ball-stopper that limited the output of his teammates, you’ll nominate Atlanta as a “Ewing-Theory” candidate. I think their starting lineup will be just fine, but the lack of depth will prevent Atlanta from snagging too high of a seed in the East.
Projects = SG Iman Shumpert
Outlook = New York tested out an interesting theory at the start of last season. What would happen when you went into a season with no proven guards? The answer was a team that was mediocre until Jeremy Lin bailed them out for a month. Entering 2012-13, the Knicks face similar issues. Iman Shumpert was an effective guard on defense, but could very well be ineffective all year coming off a blown out knee in their first round loss to Miami last spring. The Knicks long-term outlook would be much brighter if they could amnesty Amar’e Stoudemire, but they burned that on Chauncey Billups last December. If New York can find someone to play perimeter defense, they’ll have a chance at a top-4 seed, but until that occurs, expect another quick round one playoff loss.
Projects = PG Marquis Teague
Outlook = This may seem obvious to the hardcore NBA fan, but for those that aren’t, Chicago would be at least the fourth ranked team in this pole if they had a healthy Derrick Rose. As it stands, Rose could be back as early as January, or may miss the entire season. If it looks like he’s going to sit, they would be wise to cut some dead weight. Boozer has been a major disappointment, and unless they can find a sucker to take on his contract, he should be amnestied to make room for Taj Gibson in the starting lineup. Without Rose, Chicago will have to rely on defense to keep games in the 70s and 80s. That formula can work in the regular season, but it won’t fly in the playoffs.
Projects = SG Evan Turner, C Spencer Hawes
Outlook = Who should the Miami Heat fear the most in the Eastern Conference? This team. A whole bunch of shit needs to go right, but if it does, this team will be able to hang with the Heat. There is no one on Miami that can guard Andrew Bynum (he just needs to stay healthy, which he’s done once his entire career). Evan Turner doesn’t have the ceiling of a Lebron James or Dwyane Wade, but if he breaks out, will be enough to at least make one of the Big 3 work hard on defense. Holiday and Young pretty much are what they are at this point, but are capable enough to be the third and fourth best players on a quality playoff team. Young stands to gain the most with Andre Iguodala getting shipped out of town. There are too many question marks to rate this team too high, but if you’re looking for the best long-shot bet to win the NBA Finals, here it is.
Projects = PG D.J. Augustin
Outlook = Remember when the Pacers were up 2-1 in their second round series with the Bosh-less Heat? They got their doors blown off the next three games, and have the look of a team that has little room for improvement. With the exception of Paul George, none of their starting five appears to have any room for growth (it should be noted though that George does have the tools to develop into a top 20 player). One could argue that Indiana is the new version of the Joe Johnson era Atlanta Hawks. They’ll land a four or five seed and make it no farther than the second round of the playoffs.
Projects = SG MarShon Brooks
Outlook = I hate to rate this team so high after screwing up the Dwight Howard trade talks so much, but I like their starting five. Joe Johnson’s most efficient season was when he was Phoenix with Steve Nash, so being paired with Deron Williams should be a good thing for him. Brook Lopez might be the only seven-footer in the league that can’t get a rebound, but Gerald Wallace and Kris Humphries will cover for his board-deficiencies enough to allow Lopez to focus on scoring. The bench is where it gets kind of scary, but that shouldn’t be enough to keep Brooklyn from nabbing home-court advantage in the first round.
Projects = PF Anthony Randolph, C Kosta Koufos
Outlook = I bet you wouldn’t of guessed that Denver would have the most players ranked inside the top-100, but they do with seven. The Nuggets are loaded at every position, and have more flexibility than any other team in the league. Most importantly, every one of their top players can run the floor. Andre Iguodala (their reward for helping to facilitate the Dwight Howard deal) only adds to their athleticism, and also brings an element of perimeter defense that has been missing in Denver for years. This team is built to handle an 82-game regular season, but it remains to be seen who their crunch-time scorer will be come playoff time.
Projects = PG Eric Bledsoe
Outlook = There isn’t a team in the league more dependent on veterans who didn’t crack the top 100 than the Los Angeles Clippers. Chauncey Billups is coming off a blown out knee. Caron Butler is come back after a broken wrist ended his 2012 season. Grant Hill joins the team on accident, because I’m pretty sure he thought he was going to the same Los Angeles team Steve Nash was (oops!). Lamar Odom is still married to the chunky Kardashian. All four of these men need to contribute for the Clipper to be a championship threat. Even more vital than that is the development of Blake Griffin. For all the highlights, Griffin looked like the exact same player during his second season as he did during his rookie year. He needs to have some semblance of an accurate 15-foot jumper, and he needs to have a clue about where he needs to be on defense. As soon as Griffin fixes these two flaws in his game, there’s no telling how far the Chris Paul led Clippers can go.
Projects = PG Tony Wroten, PF Darrell Arthur
Outlook = Last season, Memphis was derailed by Zach Randolph injury issues all season. Even worse, when he returned, him and Rudy Gay never showed the kind of chemistry needed to make a deep playoff run. If they don’t figure it out within the first few months of the season, look for Gay or Randolph to get shipped out of town. If that doesn’t happen, you’re looking at the best defensive team in the Western Conference. A couple of bench pieces need to materialize (in particular, a scoring threat), but Memphis isn’t far away from being able to compete with the Lakers and Thunder.
Projects = PF DeJuan Blair
Outlook = San Antonio looked like they were going to go undefeated in the playoffs before inexplicably falling apart in Games 3-6 of the Western Conference Finals. The same roster returns, which is the reason we have to downgrade the Spurs chances of making the conference finals this season. We know San Antonio will throw games in the name of keeping their Big 3 healthy, but will that cost the Spurs a top seed in the West? A first round date with Oklahoma City or the Lakers would not be in their best interests.
Outlook = When I did my rough draft rankings, I had the Celtics ranked at 10, but when you start comparing their roster to the rest of the league, it wasn’t hard to push them up to 4. Losing Ray Allen hurts, but even without him this will be the deepest Celtics team since the championship winning 2007-08 club. Jason Terry might not be as accurate as Allen from behind the arc, but is capable of getting white-hot and can even run the point for short stretches. Avery Bradley will return fully healthy this season, and will bring elite perimeter defense (it’s not hard to wonder what could’ve happened if Dwyane Wade had to deal with Bradley in the Eastern Conference Finals last season). Jeff Green returns from his heart ailment, and provides another solid wing defender. Jared Sullinger should at worst be a Big Baby 2.0. Even more important, Boston finally has some financial flexibility. Kevin Garnett earned $21 million last year. This season he’s on the books for $11 million. They also saved $6 million swapping Jason Terry in for Ray Allen. With as many parts as they have, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Danny Ainge could swing a deal for a big time asset, which is something he had no chance of doing a year ago. Even with one of the oldest rosters in the league, Boston’s future looks much brighter now than it did a year ago.
Projects = SG Jodie Meeks
Outlook = I remember quite vividly what happened the last time the Los Angeles Lakers put together “a big four”. The quartet of Shaquille O’Neal, Kobe Bryant, Karl Malone, and Gary Payton struggled through an inconsistent regular season before rallying to make the NBA Finals. The Detroit Pistons in five games then promptly dominated them. I’m not saying this group (which is clearly stronger than the 2003-04 quartet) will suffer a similar fate, but it is meant to poor some cold water on people who think they are going to win 75 games. We still have no idea how Kobe Bryant will adjust to having a great point guard (sorry Derek Fisher fans). My guess is he’ll welcome having Steve Nash take on a greater share of the ball handling, but Kobe is a bit bonkers so you never know. The bench leaves much to be desired (with the exception of Jodie Meeks, who is going to be a deadly 3-point sharpshooter when he gets to play with Nash), which could be an issue if Dwight Howard’s back issues flare up during the regular season. The Lakers will not win 70 games, but if the Nash and Kobe mesh well, 60 wins should be a reasonable target.
Projects = PG Eric Maynor, SF Perry Jones, PF Daniel Orton, C Cole Aldrich
Outlook = The youngest team in the NBA is at a bit of a crossroads for the first time since the franchise moved to Oklahoma City. Star players Durant and Westbrook are locked up, but the James Harden negotiations will go along way in determining if this group has a chance at becoming a dynasty. Harden will be a restricted free agent after the season, and surely will command a max offer (4 years, $64 million) from someone. Bill Simmons wrote about 12,000 words about James Harden last week, but in case you missed that piece, let’s list the options Oklahoma City has.
Projects = PG Norris Cole
Outlook = They employ the best basketball player on planet Earth. No matter how much you hate them, it would be irresponsible to rate them any lower than first heading into the regular season.
30. Charlotte Bobcats
Top 100 Players = NoneProjects = SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, C Bismack Biyombo
Outlook = Kidd-Gilchrist is a nice building block, but it’s going to take a couple of more before this team is remotely competitive. Expect them to be one of two teams with the best odds at the number one pick at next May’s draft lottery.
29. Orlando Magic
Top 100 Players = SG Arron Afflalo (80)Projects = C Nikola Vucevic
Outlook = Experts gave Orlando a bunch of shit for what they received back in the Dwight Howard trade, but I’ll go in the opposite direction. What is the point of acquiring solid, mid-level players and setting yourself up to be at best a #5 seed every year, when instead you can bottom out and have a chance at acquiring a franchise player in the draft? For the long-term, it makes sense to assemble an awful team over a mediocre one. They did a decent enough job dumping salary. Players like Jameer Nelson and J.J. Redick will have trade value for contending teams (Hedo Turkoglu though…not so much), which they can receive expiring contracts and more draft picks in return. I’ll sign off on the long-term plan of the Orlando Magic.
28. Detroit Pistons
Top 100 Players = C Greg Monroe (49)Projects = PG Brandon Knight, PF Andre Drummond
Outlook = Detroit is not going anywhere until Joe Dumars is removed from the front office. If Andre Drummond is Hasheem Thabeet 2.0, that might be the nail in the coffin for his employment.
27. Washington Wizards
Top 100 Players = C Nene (52), PG John Wall (55)Projects = SG Bradley Beal, PF Jan Vesely
Outlook = A healthy John Wall would bump the Wizards somewhere in the 20-24 range, but his injury to start the first month or two of the season is a killer. Perhaps sucking wouldn’t be such a bad idea, as Washington is a small forward short of a very solid foundation.
26. Toronto Raptors
Top 100 Players = PG Kyle Lowry (51), C Andrea Bargnani
(58), PG Jose Calderon (96)Projects = SG DeMar DeRozan, PF Ed Davis, C Jonas Valanciunas
Outlook = Toronto still needs to make a move (you aren’t trotting Lowry and Calderon out on the court together) before we can fully judge the long-term outlook of this team.
25. Phoenix Suns
Top 100 Players = C Marcin Gortat (57), PF Luis Scola
(68), PG Goran Dragic (83)Projects = PG Kendall Marshall, SF Michael Beasley
24. Sacramento Kings
Top 100 Players = C DeMarcus Cousins (42), SG Tyreke
Evans (69)Projects = PG Jimmer Fredette, PG Isaiah Thomas, PF Thomas Robinson
Outlook = With the exception of Cousins (who if he keeps his head on straight, should become the most dominant scoring big man in the league within the next two years), this team is full of guys who could be the third or fourth best players on a playoff team given the right situation. Unfortunately, Sacramento does not qualify as the right situation. Ultimately, what the club decides to do with Tyreke Evans will determine the long-term trajectory of the Kings. He’s been a ball-stopper who hasn’t progressed at all since a promising rookie season. Evans is the classic player who is over qualified to be a sixth man, but not good enough to be your franchise guy. The wise move would be to ship Evans to a contender in need of scoring wing players (Chicago Bulls? Denver Nuggets? Utah Jazz?) and continue to build around Cousins. We’ll see what they do when the trade deadline nears.
23. Houston Rockets
Top 100 Players = SG Kevin Martin (76), PG Jeremy Lin
(78), C Omer Asik (99)Projects = SG Jeremy Lamb, PF Royce White
Outlook = Houston’s main objective during the off-season was to be involved in the Dwight Howard trade, either obtaining Howard or facilitating the trade to get another franchise player. Incredibly, Houston not only didn’t get Howard, but also had to watch Andrew Bynum end up in Philadelphia. There are still plenty of assets left, so expect Houston to try to bottom out and clear cap space for the summer of 2013.
22. Utah Jazz
Top 100 Players = C Al Jefferson (44), PF Paul Millsap
(53), PF Derrick Favors (89)Projects = SG Alec Burks, SF Gordon Hayward, PF Enes Kanter
Outlook = It’s a slight problem when the three best players on your team can’t be on the court together at the same time. Even more troubling, their best project, Enes Kanter, can’t roll with more than one of those players either. If I was put in charge of the Jazz for one day, I’m shipping Jefferson and Millsap out of town and rolling with the kids.
21. Minnesota Timberwolves
Top 100 Players = PF Kevin Love (7), PG Ricky Rubio (47),
SF Andrei Kirilenko (79)Projects = SF Chase Budinger, PF Derrick Williams
Outlook = There isn't a bigger dissapointing development in the NBA preseason than Kevin Love's broken hand. Minnesota was poised to break out after finally ditching some dead weight (bye-bye Michael Beasley) and adding an important glue-guy (AK47) that the Timberwolves have never had since Kevin Garnett left for Boston. If Derrick Williams can finally show some life, there's a chance that the Timberwolves can weather the storm and stay within reach of a playoff spot, but odds are Minnesota will spend one more year in the lottery before making the playoff leap in 2014.
20. Cleveland Cavaliers
Top 100 Players = PG Kyrie Irving (22), PF Anderson Varejao (74)
Projects = SG Dion Waiters, PF Tristan Thompson, C Tyler Zeller
Outlook = During the 2011 NBA Draft, the main topic of conversation was the lack of a franchise player. The experts were wrong. Kyrie Irving exceeded all reasonable expectations in a spectacular rookie campaign, even having the Cavaliers in playoff contention until Anderson Varejao was lost for the season. The sooner Dion Waiters (who’s looked solid so far in preseason) and Tristan Thompson get up to speed, the sooner Cleveland will return to the playoffs.
19. New Orleans Hornets
Top 100 Players = SG Eric Gordon (38), C Ryan Anderson
(50), PF Anthony Davis (62)Projects = SG Austin Rivers, SF Al-Farouq Aminu
Outlook = For all the hoopla over the controversial Chris Paul trade, New Orleans came out smelling like roses. Anthony Davis will be a Kevin Garnett like presence for the Hornets for the next decade. Eric Gordon resigned, and while health is always a concern with him (I drafted him in the third round of my fantasy draft last year, so I know this better than most), he has the potential to be the best 2-guard in the league. While not a sure thing, if Austin Rivers can somehow develop into a Russell Westbrook-like point guard, New Orleans suddenly has one of the strongest foundations in the league. Short term, a lack of big bodies should keep them out of the playoffs (Ryan Anderson is a terrific 3-point shooter who can stretch a defense, but his defensive ability in the post lives much to be desired), but the future is bright. By stock in the 2014-15 Hornets.
18. Milwaukee Bucks
Top 100 Players = SG Monta Ellis (46), PG Brandon
Jennings (61), PF Ersan Ilyasova (72)Projects = SG Doron Lamb, PF John Henson
Outlook = Golden State confirmed over the past three seasons that an under-sized backcourt with Monta Ellis as one of the components will not get you to the playoffs, which makes it all the more curious that they shipped out Andrew Bogut to pair Ellis with Brandon Jennings. They’ll win their share or run-and-gun shootouts, but the Bucks best-case scenario this year is an eighth seed.
17. Portland Trail Blazers
Top 100 Players = PF LaMarcus Aldridge (20), SF Nicolas
Batum (63)Projects = PG Damian Lillard, PF J.J. Hickson
Outlook = Hard to believe that the Trail Blazers were favored to beat the Dallas Mavericks in the first round of the 2011 NBA playoffs after they completely imploded last season. LaMarcus Aldridge is a legitimate 20 PPG scorer, but unless Batum or Lillard breaks out, it’s hard see where other baskets will come from on this team.
16. Dallas Mavericks
Top 100 Players = PF Dirk Nowitzki (11), C Elton Brand
(85), SG O.J. Mayo (90), SF Shawn Marion (92), PG Darren Collison (98)Projects = PG Rodrigue Beaubois, PF Brandon Wright
Outlook = Knees that repeatedly swell are not a good thing, but that’s what Dirk Nowitzki has been dealing with for the past few months (QUICK TANGENT ALERT: Kobe Bryant went to Germany last off-season to have platelet’s injected into his knee. Isn’t that where Dirk Nowitzki is from? You’re telling me he couldn’t have gotten the Kobe treatment at a discount price?) He’s going to miss the first month of the season. There are enough pieces here to keep the team within range of a playoff spot, but if Dirk’s absence lingers into January, the Mavericks will likely be sellers at the trade deadline.
15. Golden State Warriors
Top 100 Players = PG Stephen Curry (40), C Andrew Bogut
(45), PF David Lee (59)Projects = SG Klay Thompson, SF Harrison Barnes
Outlook = What’s the greatest “if” statement in the NBA right now? It’s “if” Stephen Curry can stay healthy. “If” he does, he has two legitimate big men (and amazingly, one that can actually play defense) and two exciting wing players (No Credentials likes Harrison Barnes in Golden State. He’ll flourish “if” Curry stays healthy). The one downer on this whole argument is that Andrew Bogut isn’t exactly a model of health either. If he goes down, Golden State reverts to a “lose 120-112” style of play that will leave them short of a playoff berth. File Golden State away as an intriguing sleeper team if they can get a few lucky breaks.
14. Atlanta Hawks
Top 100 Players = C Al Horford (30), PF Josh Smith (31),
PG Lou Williams (88)Projects = PG Jeff Teague
Outlook = You’re opinion of the 2012-13 prospects of the Hawks depends on your feelings on Joe Johnson. If you think that Johnson was their only player that could get his own shot, you’re downgrading them. If you think Johnson was a ball-stopper that limited the output of his teammates, you’ll nominate Atlanta as a “Ewing-Theory” candidate. I think their starting lineup will be just fine, but the lack of depth will prevent Atlanta from snagging too high of a seed in the East.
13. New York Knicks
Top 100 Players = SF Carmelo Anthony (17), C Tyson
Chandler (23), PF Amar’e Stoudemire (43)Projects = SG Iman Shumpert
Outlook = New York tested out an interesting theory at the start of last season. What would happen when you went into a season with no proven guards? The answer was a team that was mediocre until Jeremy Lin bailed them out for a month. Entering 2012-13, the Knicks face similar issues. Iman Shumpert was an effective guard on defense, but could very well be ineffective all year coming off a blown out knee in their first round loss to Miami last spring. The Knicks long-term outlook would be much brighter if they could amnesty Amar’e Stoudemire, but they burned that on Chauncey Billups last December. If New York can find someone to play perimeter defense, they’ll have a chance at a top-4 seed, but until that occurs, expect another quick round one playoff loss.
12. Chicago Bulls
Top 100 Players = PG Derrick Rose (5), C Joakim Noah
(36), SF Luol Deng (37), PF Carlos Boozer (67), PF Taj Gibson (82)Projects = PG Marquis Teague
Outlook = This may seem obvious to the hardcore NBA fan, but for those that aren’t, Chicago would be at least the fourth ranked team in this pole if they had a healthy Derrick Rose. As it stands, Rose could be back as early as January, or may miss the entire season. If it looks like he’s going to sit, they would be wise to cut some dead weight. Boozer has been a major disappointment, and unless they can find a sucker to take on his contract, he should be amnestied to make room for Taj Gibson in the starting lineup. Without Rose, Chicago will have to rely on defense to keep games in the 70s and 80s. That formula can work in the regular season, but it won’t fly in the playoffs.
11. Philadelphia 76ers
Top 100 Players = C Andrew Bynum (13), PG Jrue Holiday
(73), SF Thaddeus Young (91)Projects = SG Evan Turner, C Spencer Hawes
Outlook = Who should the Miami Heat fear the most in the Eastern Conference? This team. A whole bunch of shit needs to go right, but if it does, this team will be able to hang with the Heat. There is no one on Miami that can guard Andrew Bynum (he just needs to stay healthy, which he’s done once his entire career). Evan Turner doesn’t have the ceiling of a Lebron James or Dwyane Wade, but if he breaks out, will be enough to at least make one of the Big 3 work hard on defense. Holiday and Young pretty much are what they are at this point, but are capable enough to be the third and fourth best players on a quality playoff team. Young stands to gain the most with Andre Iguodala getting shipped out of town. There are too many question marks to rate this team too high, but if you’re looking for the best long-shot bet to win the NBA Finals, here it is.
10. Indiana Pacers
Top 100 Players = C Roy Hibbert (35), SF Danny Granger
(39), PF David West (56), SG Paul George (75), PG George Hill (87)Projects = PG D.J. Augustin
Outlook = Remember when the Pacers were up 2-1 in their second round series with the Bosh-less Heat? They got their doors blown off the next three games, and have the look of a team that has little room for improvement. With the exception of Paul George, none of their starting five appears to have any room for growth (it should be noted though that George does have the tools to develop into a top 20 player). One could argue that Indiana is the new version of the Joe Johnson era Atlanta Hawks. They’ll land a four or five seed and make it no farther than the second round of the playoffs.
9. Brooklyn Nets
Top 100 Players = PG Deron Williams (10), SG Joe Johnson
(33), C Brook Lopez (60), SF Gerald Wallace (70), PF Kris Humphries (84)Projects = SG MarShon Brooks
Outlook = I hate to rate this team so high after screwing up the Dwight Howard trade talks so much, but I like their starting five. Joe Johnson’s most efficient season was when he was Phoenix with Steve Nash, so being paired with Deron Williams should be a good thing for him. Brook Lopez might be the only seven-footer in the league that can’t get a rebound, but Gerald Wallace and Kris Humphries will cover for his board-deficiencies enough to allow Lopez to focus on scoring. The bench is where it gets kind of scary, but that shouldn’t be enough to keep Brooklyn from nabbing home-court advantage in the first round.
8. Denver Nuggets
Top 100 Players = SG Andre Iguodala (28), PG Ty Lawson
(48), SF Danilo Gallinari (54), PF Kenneth Faried (71), C JaVale McGee (77), SF
Wilson Chandler (93), PG Andre Miller (94)Projects = PF Anthony Randolph, C Kosta Koufos
Outlook = I bet you wouldn’t of guessed that Denver would have the most players ranked inside the top-100, but they do with seven. The Nuggets are loaded at every position, and have more flexibility than any other team in the league. Most importantly, every one of their top players can run the floor. Andre Iguodala (their reward for helping to facilitate the Dwight Howard deal) only adds to their athleticism, and also brings an element of perimeter defense that has been missing in Denver for years. This team is built to handle an 82-game regular season, but it remains to be seen who their crunch-time scorer will be come playoff time.
7. Los Angeles Clippers
Top 100 Players = PG Chris Paul (4), PF Blake Griffin
(14), C DeAndre Jordan (86)Projects = PG Eric Bledsoe
Outlook = There isn’t a team in the league more dependent on veterans who didn’t crack the top 100 than the Los Angeles Clippers. Chauncey Billups is coming off a blown out knee. Caron Butler is come back after a broken wrist ended his 2012 season. Grant Hill joins the team on accident, because I’m pretty sure he thought he was going to the same Los Angeles team Steve Nash was (oops!). Lamar Odom is still married to the chunky Kardashian. All four of these men need to contribute for the Clipper to be a championship threat. Even more vital than that is the development of Blake Griffin. For all the highlights, Griffin looked like the exact same player during his second season as he did during his rookie year. He needs to have some semblance of an accurate 15-foot jumper, and he needs to have a clue about where he needs to be on defense. As soon as Griffin fixes these two flaws in his game, there’s no telling how far the Chris Paul led Clippers can go.
6. Memphis Grizzlies
Top 100 Players = C Marc Gasol (24), SF Rudy Gay (32), PF
Zach Randolph (34), PG Mike Conley (65), SG Tony Allen (66)Projects = PG Tony Wroten, PF Darrell Arthur
Outlook = Last season, Memphis was derailed by Zach Randolph injury issues all season. Even worse, when he returned, him and Rudy Gay never showed the kind of chemistry needed to make a deep playoff run. If they don’t figure it out within the first few months of the season, look for Gay or Randolph to get shipped out of town. If that doesn’t happen, you’re looking at the best defensive team in the Western Conference. A couple of bench pieces need to materialize (in particular, a scoring threat), but Memphis isn’t far away from being able to compete with the Lakers and Thunder.
5. San Antonio Spurs
Top 100 Players = PG Tony Parker (16), SG Manu Ginobili
(25), C Tim Duncan (27), SF Kawhi Leonard (95)Projects = PF DeJuan Blair
Outlook = San Antonio looked like they were going to go undefeated in the playoffs before inexplicably falling apart in Games 3-6 of the Western Conference Finals. The same roster returns, which is the reason we have to downgrade the Spurs chances of making the conference finals this season. We know San Antonio will throw games in the name of keeping their Big 3 healthy, but will that cost the Spurs a top seed in the West? A first round date with Oklahoma City or the Lakers would not be in their best interests.
4. Boston Celtics
Top 100 Players = PG Rajon Rondo (12), C Kevin Garnett
(21), SF Paul Pierce (29), SG Jason Terry (81), PF Brandon Bass (97)
Projects = SG Avery Bradley, SF Jeff Green, PF Jared
Sullinger, C Fab MeloOutlook = When I did my rough draft rankings, I had the Celtics ranked at 10, but when you start comparing their roster to the rest of the league, it wasn’t hard to push them up to 4. Losing Ray Allen hurts, but even without him this will be the deepest Celtics team since the championship winning 2007-08 club. Jason Terry might not be as accurate as Allen from behind the arc, but is capable of getting white-hot and can even run the point for short stretches. Avery Bradley will return fully healthy this season, and will bring elite perimeter defense (it’s not hard to wonder what could’ve happened if Dwyane Wade had to deal with Bradley in the Eastern Conference Finals last season). Jeff Green returns from his heart ailment, and provides another solid wing defender. Jared Sullinger should at worst be a Big Baby 2.0. Even more important, Boston finally has some financial flexibility. Kevin Garnett earned $21 million last year. This season he’s on the books for $11 million. They also saved $6 million swapping Jason Terry in for Ray Allen. With as many parts as they have, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Danny Ainge could swing a deal for a big time asset, which is something he had no chance of doing a year ago. Even with one of the oldest rosters in the league, Boston’s future looks much brighter now than it did a year ago.
3. Los Angeles Lakers
Top 100 Players = C Dwight Howard (3), SG Kobe Bryant
(6), PF Pau Gasol (15), PG Steve Nash (19)Projects = SG Jodie Meeks
Outlook = I remember quite vividly what happened the last time the Los Angeles Lakers put together “a big four”. The quartet of Shaquille O’Neal, Kobe Bryant, Karl Malone, and Gary Payton struggled through an inconsistent regular season before rallying to make the NBA Finals. The Detroit Pistons in five games then promptly dominated them. I’m not saying this group (which is clearly stronger than the 2003-04 quartet) will suffer a similar fate, but it is meant to poor some cold water on people who think they are going to win 75 games. We still have no idea how Kobe Bryant will adjust to having a great point guard (sorry Derek Fisher fans). My guess is he’ll welcome having Steve Nash take on a greater share of the ball handling, but Kobe is a bit bonkers so you never know. The bench leaves much to be desired (with the exception of Jodie Meeks, who is going to be a deadly 3-point sharpshooter when he gets to play with Nash), which could be an issue if Dwight Howard’s back issues flare up during the regular season. The Lakers will not win 70 games, but if the Nash and Kobe mesh well, 60 wins should be a reasonable target.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder
Top 100 Players = SF Kevin Durant (2), PG Russell
Westbrook (9), SG James Harden (26), PF Serge Ibaka (41), PF Nick Collison (100)Projects = PG Eric Maynor, SF Perry Jones, PF Daniel Orton, C Cole Aldrich
Outlook = The youngest team in the NBA is at a bit of a crossroads for the first time since the franchise moved to Oklahoma City. Star players Durant and Westbrook are locked up, but the James Harden negotiations will go along way in determining if this group has a chance at becoming a dynasty. Harden will be a restricted free agent after the season, and surely will command a max offer (4 years, $64 million) from someone. Bill Simmons wrote about 12,000 words about James Harden last week, but in case you missed that piece, let’s list the options Oklahoma City has.
- Resign him now
- Trade him either now or before the trade deadline in February
- Play out the season and see what happens in free agency
1. Miami Heat
Top 100 Players = SF Lebron James (1), SG Dwyane Wade
(8), PF Chris Bosh (18), SG Ray Allen (64)Projects = PG Norris Cole
Outlook = They employ the best basketball player on planet Earth. No matter how much you hate them, it would be irresponsible to rate them any lower than first heading into the regular season.
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