Here’s
a quick, 4,000-word preview of all 30 NBA teams. We rank them in reverse order of
which teams are the most likely to win the NBA title. Top-100 players are based
on the ESPN poll conducted this past summer (numerous experts voted to
determine the rank of the top-500 players in the league. Figured we’d get a
little expert analysis mixed in with this blog for a change). Projects are players
under the age of 25 (with one exception, I’ll give a free chocolate munchkin to
the person who finds him) who No Credentials feels have the potential to be
ranked a top-100 player within the next three seasons. Without further ado,
here is the worst team in professional sports.
30. Charlotte Bobcats
Top 100 Players = None
Projects = SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, C Bismack Biyombo
Outlook = Kidd-Gilchrist is a nice building block,
but it’s going to take a couple of more before this team is remotely
competitive. Expect them to be one of two teams with the best odds at the
number one pick at next May’s draft lottery.
29. Orlando Magic
Top 100 Players = SG Arron Afflalo (80)
Projects = C Nikola Vucevic
Outlook = Experts gave Orlando a bunch of shit for
what they received back in the Dwight Howard trade, but I’ll go in the opposite
direction. What is the point of acquiring solid, mid-level players and setting
yourself up to be at best a #5 seed every year, when instead you can bottom out
and have a chance at acquiring a franchise player in the draft? For the
long-term, it makes sense to assemble an awful team over a mediocre one. They
did a decent enough job dumping salary. Players like Jameer Nelson and J.J.
Redick will have trade value for contending teams (Hedo Turkoglu though…not so
much), which they can receive expiring contracts and more draft picks in
return. I’ll sign off on the long-term plan of the Orlando Magic.
28. Detroit Pistons
Top 100 Players = C Greg Monroe (49)
Projects = PG Brandon Knight, PF Andre Drummond
Outlook = Detroit is not going anywhere until Joe
Dumars is removed from the front office. If Andre Drummond is Hasheem Thabeet
2.0, that might be the nail in the coffin for his employment.
27. Washington Wizards
Top 100 Players = C Nene (52), PG John Wall (55)
Projects = SG Bradley Beal, PF Jan Vesely
Outlook = A healthy John Wall would bump the Wizards
somewhere in the 20-24 range, but his injury to start the first month or two of
the season is a killer. Perhaps sucking wouldn’t be such a bad idea, as
Washington is a small forward short of a very solid foundation.
26. Toronto Raptors
Top 100 Players = PG Kyle Lowry (51), C Andrea Bargnani
(58), PG Jose Calderon (96)
Projects = SG DeMar DeRozan, PF Ed Davis, C Jonas
Valanciunas
Outlook = Toronto still needs to make a move (you
aren’t trotting Lowry and Calderon out on the court together) before we can
fully judge the long-term outlook of this team.
25. Phoenix Suns
Top 100 Players = C Marcin Gortat (57), PF Luis Scola
(68), PG Goran Dragic (83)
Projects = PG Kendall Marshall, SF Michael Beasley
24. Sacramento Kings
Top 100 Players = C DeMarcus Cousins (42), SG Tyreke
Evans (69)
Projects = PG Jimmer Fredette, PG Isaiah Thomas, PF
Thomas Robinson
Outlook = With the exception of Cousins (who if he
keeps his head on straight, should become the most dominant scoring big man in
the league within the next two years), this team is full of guys who could be
the third or fourth best players on a playoff team given the right situation.
Unfortunately, Sacramento does not qualify as the right situation. Ultimately,
what the club decides to do with Tyreke Evans will determine the long-term
trajectory of the Kings. He’s been a ball-stopper who hasn’t progressed at all
since a promising rookie season. Evans is the classic player who is over
qualified to be a sixth man, but not good enough to be your franchise guy. The
wise move would be to ship Evans to a contender in need of scoring wing players
(Chicago Bulls? Denver Nuggets? Utah Jazz?) and continue to build around
Cousins. We’ll see what they do when the trade deadline nears.
23. Houston Rockets
Top 100 Players = SG Kevin Martin (76), PG Jeremy Lin
(78), C Omer Asik (99)
Projects = SG Jeremy Lamb, PF Royce White
Outlook = Houston’s main objective during the
off-season was to be involved in the Dwight Howard trade, either obtaining
Howard or facilitating the trade to get another franchise player. Incredibly,
Houston not only didn’t get Howard, but also had to watch Andrew Bynum end up
in Philadelphia. There are still plenty of assets left, so expect Houston to
try to bottom out and clear cap space for the summer of 2013.
22. Utah Jazz
Top 100 Players = C Al Jefferson (44), PF Paul Millsap
(53), PF Derrick Favors (89)
Projects = SG Alec Burks, SF Gordon Hayward, PF Enes
Kanter
Outlook = It’s a slight problem when the three best
players on your team can’t be on the court together at the same time. Even more
troubling, their best project, Enes Kanter, can’t roll with more than one of
those players either. If I was put in charge of the Jazz for one day, I’m
shipping Jefferson and Millsap out of town and rolling with the kids.
21. Minnesota Timberwolves
Top 100 Players = PF Kevin Love (7), PG Ricky Rubio (47),
SF Andrei Kirilenko (79)
Projects = SF Chase Budinger, PF Derrick Williams
Outlook = There isn't a bigger dissapointing development in the NBA preseason than Kevin Love's broken hand. Minnesota was poised to break out after finally ditching some dead weight (bye-bye Michael Beasley) and adding an important glue-guy (AK47) that the Timberwolves have never had since Kevin Garnett left for Boston. If Derrick Williams can finally show some life, there's a chance that the Timberwolves can weather the storm and stay within reach of a playoff spot, but odds are Minnesota will spend one more year in the lottery before making the playoff leap in 2014.
20. Cleveland Cavaliers
Top 100 Players = PG Kyrie Irving (22), PF Anderson
Varejao (74)
Projects = SG Dion Waiters, PF Tristan Thompson, C Tyler
Zeller
Outlook = During the 2011 NBA Draft, the main topic
of conversation was the lack of a franchise player. The experts were wrong.
Kyrie Irving exceeded all reasonable expectations in a spectacular rookie
campaign, even having the Cavaliers in playoff contention until Anderson
Varejao was lost for the season. The sooner Dion Waiters (who’s looked solid so
far in preseason) and Tristan Thompson get up to speed, the sooner Cleveland
will return to the playoffs.
19. New Orleans Hornets
Top 100 Players = SG Eric Gordon (38), C Ryan Anderson
(50), PF Anthony Davis (62)
Projects = SG Austin Rivers, SF Al-Farouq Aminu
Outlook = For all the hoopla over the
controversial Chris Paul trade, New Orleans came out smelling like roses.
Anthony Davis will be a Kevin Garnett like presence for the Hornets for the
next decade. Eric Gordon resigned, and while health is always a concern with
him (I drafted him in the third round of my fantasy draft last year, so I know
this better than most), he has the potential to be the best 2-guard in the
league. While not a sure thing, if Austin Rivers can somehow develop into a
Russell Westbrook-like point guard, New Orleans suddenly has one of the
strongest foundations in the league. Short term, a lack of big bodies should
keep them out of the playoffs (Ryan Anderson is a terrific 3-point shooter who
can stretch a defense, but his defensive ability in the post lives much to be
desired), but the future is bright. By stock in the 2014-15 Hornets.
18. Milwaukee Bucks
Top 100 Players = SG Monta Ellis (46), PG Brandon
Jennings (61), PF Ersan Ilyasova (72)
Projects = SG Doron Lamb, PF John Henson
Outlook = Golden State confirmed over the past three
seasons that an under-sized backcourt with Monta Ellis as one of the components
will not get you to the playoffs, which makes it all the more curious that they
shipped out Andrew Bogut to pair Ellis with Brandon Jennings. They’ll win their
share or run-and-gun shootouts, but the Bucks best-case scenario this year is
an eighth seed.
17. Portland Trail Blazers
Top 100 Players = PF LaMarcus Aldridge (20), SF Nicolas
Batum (63)
Projects = PG Damian Lillard, PF J.J. Hickson
Outlook = Hard to believe that the Trail Blazers were
favored to beat the Dallas Mavericks in the first round of the 2011 NBA
playoffs after they completely imploded last season. LaMarcus Aldridge is a
legitimate 20 PPG scorer, but unless Batum or Lillard breaks out, it’s hard see
where other baskets will come from on this team.
16. Dallas Mavericks
Top 100 Players = PF Dirk Nowitzki (11), C Elton Brand
(85), SG O.J. Mayo (90), SF Shawn Marion (92), PG Darren Collison (98)
Projects = PG Rodrigue Beaubois, PF Brandon Wright
Outlook = Knees that repeatedly swell are not a good
thing, but that’s what Dirk Nowitzki has been dealing with for the past few
months (QUICK TANGENT ALERT: Kobe Bryant went to Germany last off-season to
have platelet’s injected into his knee. Isn’t that where Dirk Nowitzki is from?
You’re telling me he couldn’t have gotten the Kobe treatment at a discount
price?) He’s going to miss the first month of the season. There are enough
pieces here to keep the team within range of a playoff spot, but if Dirk’s
absence lingers into January, the Mavericks will likely be sellers at the trade
deadline.
15. Golden State Warriors
Top 100 Players = PG Stephen Curry (40), C Andrew Bogut
(45), PF David Lee (59)
Projects = SG Klay Thompson, SF Harrison Barnes
Outlook = What’s the greatest “if” statement in the
NBA right now? It’s “if” Stephen Curry can stay healthy. “If” he does, he has
two legitimate big men (and amazingly, one that can actually play defense) and
two exciting wing players (No Credentials likes Harrison Barnes in Golden
State. He’ll flourish “if” Curry stays healthy). The one downer on this whole
argument is that Andrew Bogut isn’t exactly a model of health either. If he
goes down, Golden State reverts to a “lose 120-112” style of play that will
leave them short of a playoff berth. File Golden State away as an intriguing
sleeper team if they can get a few lucky breaks.
14. Atlanta Hawks
Top 100 Players = C Al Horford (30), PF Josh Smith (31),
PG Lou Williams (88)
Projects = PG Jeff Teague
Outlook = You’re opinion of the 2012-13 prospects of
the Hawks depends on your feelings on Joe Johnson. If you think that Johnson
was their only player that could get his own shot, you’re downgrading them. If
you think Johnson was a ball-stopper that limited the output of his teammates,
you’ll nominate Atlanta as a “Ewing-Theory” candidate. I think their starting
lineup will be just fine, but the lack of depth will prevent Atlanta from
snagging too high of a seed in the East.
13. New York Knicks
Top 100 Players = SF Carmelo Anthony (17), C Tyson
Chandler (23), PF Amar’e Stoudemire (43)
Projects = SG Iman Shumpert
Outlook = New York tested out an interesting theory
at the start of last season. What would happen when you went into a season with
no proven guards? The answer was a team that was mediocre until Jeremy Lin
bailed them out for a month. Entering 2012-13, the Knicks face similar issues.
Iman Shumpert was an effective guard on defense, but could very well be
ineffective all year coming off a blown out knee in their first round loss to
Miami last spring. The Knicks long-term outlook would be much brighter if they
could amnesty Amar’e Stoudemire, but they burned that on Chauncey Billups last
December. If New York can find someone to play perimeter defense, they’ll have
a chance at a top-4 seed, but until that occurs, expect another quick round one
playoff loss.
12. Chicago Bulls
Top 100 Players = PG Derrick Rose (5), C Joakim Noah
(36), SF Luol Deng (37), PF Carlos Boozer (67), PF Taj Gibson (82)
Projects = PG Marquis Teague
Outlook = This may seem obvious to the hardcore NBA
fan, but for those that aren’t, Chicago would be at least the fourth ranked
team in this pole if they had a healthy Derrick Rose. As it stands, Rose could
be back as early as January, or may miss the entire season. If it looks like
he’s going to sit, they would be wise to cut some dead weight. Boozer has been
a major disappointment, and unless they can find a sucker to take on his
contract, he should be amnestied to make room for Taj Gibson in the starting
lineup. Without Rose, Chicago will have to rely on defense to keep games in the
70s and 80s. That formula can work in the regular season, but it won’t fly in
the playoffs.
11. Philadelphia 76ers
Top 100 Players = C Andrew Bynum (13), PG Jrue Holiday
(73), SF Thaddeus Young (91)
Projects = SG Evan Turner, C Spencer Hawes
Outlook = Who should the Miami Heat fear the most in
the Eastern Conference? This team. A whole bunch of shit needs to go right, but
if it does, this team will be able to hang with the Heat. There is no one on
Miami that can guard Andrew Bynum (he just needs to stay healthy, which he’s
done once his entire career). Evan Turner doesn’t have the ceiling of a Lebron
James or Dwyane Wade, but if he breaks out, will be enough to at least make one
of the Big 3 work hard on defense. Holiday and Young pretty much are what they
are at this point, but are capable enough to be the third and fourth best
players on a quality playoff team. Young stands to gain the most with Andre
Iguodala getting shipped out of town. There are too many question marks to rate
this team too high, but if you’re looking for the best long-shot bet to win the
NBA Finals, here it is.
10. Indiana Pacers
Top 100 Players = C Roy Hibbert (35), SF Danny Granger
(39), PF David West (56), SG Paul George (75), PG George Hill (87)
Projects = PG D.J. Augustin
Outlook = Remember when the Pacers were up 2-1 in
their second round series with the Bosh-less Heat? They got their doors blown
off the next three games, and have the look of a team that has little room for
improvement. With the exception of Paul George, none of their starting five
appears to have any room for growth (it should be noted though that George does
have the tools to develop into a top 20 player). One could argue that Indiana
is the new version of the Joe Johnson era Atlanta Hawks. They’ll land a four or
five seed and make it no farther than the second round of the playoffs.
9. Brooklyn Nets
Top 100 Players = PG Deron Williams (10), SG Joe Johnson
(33), C Brook Lopez (60), SF Gerald Wallace (70), PF Kris Humphries (84)
Projects = SG MarShon Brooks
Outlook = I hate to rate this team so high after
screwing up the Dwight Howard trade talks so much, but I like their starting
five. Joe Johnson’s most efficient season was when he was Phoenix with Steve
Nash, so being paired with Deron Williams should be a good thing for him. Brook
Lopez might be the only seven-footer in the league that can’t get a rebound,
but Gerald Wallace and Kris Humphries will cover for his board-deficiencies
enough to allow Lopez to focus on scoring. The bench is where it gets kind of
scary, but that shouldn’t be enough to keep Brooklyn from nabbing home-court
advantage in the first round.
8. Denver Nuggets
Top 100 Players = SG Andre Iguodala (28), PG Ty Lawson
(48), SF Danilo Gallinari (54), PF Kenneth Faried (71), C JaVale McGee (77), SF
Wilson Chandler (93), PG Andre Miller (94)
Projects = PF Anthony Randolph, C Kosta Koufos
Outlook = I bet you wouldn’t of guessed that Denver
would have the most players ranked inside the top-100, but they do with seven.
The Nuggets are loaded at every position, and have more flexibility than any
other team in the league. Most importantly, every one of their top players can
run the floor. Andre Iguodala (their reward for helping to facilitate the
Dwight Howard deal) only adds to their athleticism, and also brings an element
of perimeter defense that has been missing in Denver for years. This team is
built to handle an 82-game regular season, but it remains to be seen who their
crunch-time scorer will be come playoff time.
7. Los Angeles Clippers
Top 100 Players = PG Chris Paul (4), PF Blake Griffin
(14), C DeAndre Jordan (86)
Projects = PG Eric Bledsoe
Outlook = There isn’t a team in the league more
dependent on veterans who didn’t crack the top 100 than the Los Angeles
Clippers. Chauncey Billups is coming off a blown out knee. Caron Butler is come
back after a broken wrist ended his 2012 season. Grant Hill joins the team on
accident, because I’m pretty sure he thought he was going to the same Los
Angeles team Steve Nash was (oops!). Lamar Odom is still married to the chunky
Kardashian. All four of these men need to contribute for the Clipper to be a
championship threat. Even more vital than that is the development of Blake
Griffin. For all the highlights, Griffin looked like the exact same player
during his second season as he did during his rookie year. He needs to have
some semblance of an accurate 15-foot jumper, and he needs to have a clue about
where he needs to be on defense. As soon as Griffin fixes these two flaws in
his game, there’s no telling how far the Chris Paul led Clippers can go.
6. Memphis Grizzlies
Top 100 Players = C Marc Gasol (24), SF Rudy Gay (32), PF
Zach Randolph (34), PG Mike Conley (65), SG Tony Allen (66)
Projects = PG Tony Wroten, PF Darrell Arthur
Outlook = Last season, Memphis was derailed by Zach
Randolph injury issues all season. Even worse, when he returned, him and Rudy
Gay never showed the kind of chemistry needed to make a deep playoff run. If
they don’t figure it out within the first few months of the season, look for
Gay or Randolph to get shipped out of town. If that doesn’t happen, you’re
looking at the best defensive team in the Western Conference. A couple of bench
pieces need to materialize (in particular, a scoring threat), but Memphis isn’t
far away from being able to compete with the Lakers and Thunder.
5. San Antonio Spurs
Top 100 Players = PG Tony Parker (16), SG Manu Ginobili
(25), C Tim Duncan (27), SF Kawhi Leonard (95)
Projects = PF DeJuan Blair
Outlook = San Antonio looked like they were going to
go undefeated in the playoffs before inexplicably falling apart in Games 3-6 of
the Western Conference Finals. The same roster returns, which is the reason we
have to downgrade the Spurs chances of making the conference finals this
season. We know San Antonio will throw games in the name of keeping their Big 3
healthy, but will that cost the Spurs a top seed in the West? A first round
date with Oklahoma City or the Lakers would not be in their best
interests.
4. Boston Celtics
Top 100 Players = PG Rajon Rondo (12), C Kevin Garnett
(21), SF Paul Pierce (29), SG Jason Terry (81), PF Brandon Bass (97)
Projects = SG Avery Bradley, SF Jeff Green, PF Jared
Sullinger, C Fab Melo
Outlook = When I did my rough draft rankings, I had
the Celtics ranked at 10, but when you start comparing their roster to the rest
of the league, it wasn’t hard to push them up to 4. Losing Ray Allen hurts, but
even without him this will be the deepest Celtics team since the championship
winning 2007-08 club. Jason Terry might not be as accurate as Allen from behind
the arc, but is capable of getting white-hot and can even run the point for
short stretches. Avery Bradley will return fully healthy this season, and will
bring elite perimeter defense (it’s not hard to wonder what could’ve happened
if Dwyane Wade had to deal with Bradley in the Eastern Conference Finals last
season). Jeff Green returns from his heart ailment, and provides another solid
wing defender. Jared Sullinger should at worst be a Big Baby 2.0. Even more
important, Boston finally has some financial flexibility. Kevin Garnett earned
$21 million last year. This season he’s on the books for $11 million. They also
saved $6 million swapping Jason Terry in for Ray Allen. With as many parts as
they have, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Danny Ainge could
swing a deal for a big time asset, which is something he had no chance of doing
a year ago. Even with one of the oldest rosters in the league, Boston’s future
looks much brighter now than it did a year ago.
3. Los Angeles Lakers
Top 100 Players = C Dwight Howard (3), SG Kobe Bryant
(6), PF Pau Gasol (15), PG Steve Nash (19)
Projects = SG Jodie Meeks
Outlook = I remember quite vividly what happened the
last time the Los Angeles Lakers put together “a big four”. The quartet of
Shaquille O’Neal, Kobe Bryant, Karl Malone, and Gary Payton struggled through
an inconsistent regular season before rallying to make the NBA Finals. The
Detroit Pistons in five games then promptly dominated them. I’m not saying this
group (which is clearly stronger than the 2003-04 quartet) will suffer a
similar fate, but it is meant to poor some cold water on people who think they
are going to win 75 games. We still have no idea how Kobe Bryant will adjust to
having a great point guard (sorry Derek Fisher fans). My guess is he’ll welcome
having Steve Nash take on a greater share of the ball handling, but Kobe is a
bit bonkers so you never know. The bench leaves much to be desired (with the
exception of Jodie Meeks, who is going to be a deadly 3-point sharpshooter when
he gets to play with Nash), which could be an issue if Dwight Howard’s back
issues flare up during the regular season. The Lakers will not win 70 games,
but if the Nash and Kobe mesh well, 60 wins should be a reasonable target.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder
Top 100 Players = SF Kevin Durant (2), PG Russell
Westbrook (9), SG James Harden (26), PF Serge Ibaka (41), PF Nick Collison (100)
Projects = PG Eric Maynor, SF Perry Jones, PF Daniel
Orton, C Cole Aldrich
Outlook = The youngest team in the NBA is at a bit of
a crossroads for the first time since the franchise moved to Oklahoma City.
Star players Durant and Westbrook are locked up, but the James Harden
negotiations will go along way in determining if this group has a chance at
becoming a dynasty. Harden will be a restricted free agent after the season,
and surely will command a max offer (4 years, $64 million) from someone.
Bill Simmons wrote about 12,000 words about
James Harden last week, but in case you missed that piece, let’s list the
options Oklahoma City has.
- Resign
him now
- Trade
him either now or before the trade deadline in February
- Play
out the season and see what happens in free agency
No Credentials votes for C, and
will expand on what they should do further. Play out the season, and then match
whatever offer is made to Harden. To soften the economic blow, use the amnesty
clause on Kendrick Perkins. It will be much easier to replace Perkins (a solid
man-to-man defender who does not possess the ability to take over a game) than
Harden (an unselfish, do-it-all swing man who’s capable of taking over a game).
We’ll see how it plays out in real life.
1. Miami Heat
Top 100 Players = SF Lebron James (1), SG Dwyane Wade
(8), PF Chris Bosh (18), SG Ray Allen (64)
Projects = PG Norris Cole
Outlook = They
employ the best basketball player on planet Earth. No matter how much you hate
them, it would be irresponsible to rate them any lower than first heading into
the regular season.
