Friday, May 4, 2012

100% Uninformed Kentucky Derby Pick

            Amazingly, my Sportsbook account still has a fair amount of cash in it (almost 3 times more than the initial investment, thank you very much), which has now given me a chance to cross an item off of my gambling bucket list…wagering on the Kentucky Derby. Ever since missing the race when I was 12 or 13 because I had to go to the bathroom (that’s no joke, I got up from the living room near the end of a commercial break, and when I came back, the winning horse was galloping into turn 1 after crossing the finish line) I’ve had a fascination with the event. Friend of the blog Mike Stevens and I watched together as Eight Belles tragically collapsed after she finished second in 2008. We paid tribute to her the rest of the evening (by paying tribute I mean, we said a few words and then had a Jagerbomb four or five times). I wish I had more of a back-story about my fascination with the Kentucky Derby, but that’s all I got. 
            Today I’m publishing the thought process behind which horse I will bet $20 on. Three factors determined the horse I will endorse (hey that rhymed!).

  1. The horse has to have a cool name. Kind of like pro athletes and actors, if the horse doesn’t have a name, he doesn’t have a game.
  2. I want some good odds. Especially this year, where most experts are saying that as many as ten horses have a great chance to win, it’s best to get some good odds on your investment. For example, a $20 bet on Bodemiester will net you an $80 win, while a $20 bet on El Padrino will get you $400.
  3. If a horse covers the first two bases, I needed to find at least one writer on-line who thought that horse could win.
         Now that you know the in-exact science behind my selections, let’s look at each of the 20 horses that will run tomorrow.

20. Liaison (50/1)
            I’m not prepared to wager on a horse whose name means “a means to maintain communication”. What a stupid name for a horse.

19. Done Talking (50/1)
            This name would be much more fitting for a classic Carrie Underwood man-hating power ballad than a Kentucky Derby winner.

18. Sabercat (30/1)
            On one hand, I’d like to rank a horse named after an arena football team higher. On the other, couldn’t they have at least named it after a Double-A baseball team? You could talk me into betting on “Sea Dog”.

17. Trinniberg (50/1)
            I wasn’t able to find the origin of Trinniberg’s name within 35 seconds, but I’m guessing it has to do with something German. I have nothing against Germans, just thought I would note it.

16. Optimizer (50/1)
            Was this horse named by an eight year old?

15. Rousing Sermon (50/1)
            Rousing Sermon would be at least 20/1 if its name had something to do with Tim Tebow. I’d plunk some cash on a horse named “Errant Throw” without hesitation.

14. Went The Day Well (20/1)
            A horse with four words in its name has never won the Kentucky Derby (look it up here if you don’t believe me), so if you planned on betting on Went The Day Well, save yourself some time and set your money on fire.

13. Hansen (10/1)
            I’m not betting on any horse whose name is loosely associated with this band.



12. Daddy Nose Best (15/1)
           Naming a racehorse with a pun should be considered a major misuse of a resource.

11. Daddy Long Legs (30/1)
            I guess it’s cool to have two horses whose name starts with “Daddy” in the same race. It wasn’t a wise move to name a horse after a spider. I could think of an ark’s worth of animals that are faster than spiders. Daddy Long Legs doesn’t have a chance Saturday.

10. Alpha (15-1)
            Alpha is the only horse in the field that will be running for 25% of our galaxy (there’s a reference for all three “Star Trek” nerds that read this blog). His success will hinge on how well he handles that burden.

9. El Padrino (20/1)
            El Padrino was a nickname for Pablo Escobar; a Colombian cocaine dealer who Forbes Magazine estimated was the seventh richest man on Earth in the late-80s. The owners of this horse should’ve played it safe and named him “Big Papi” instead. 

8. Creative Cause (12/1)
            To fully capitalize on a name like this, the jockey better have “Save the Whales” plastered all over his back.

7. Gemologist (6/1)
            Can you picture a horse grading the quality of diamonds? Me neither, which makes this stupid name that much more fun. Here are some other cool careers that you could name a horse after.

Hygienist
Stylist
Physicist
Appraisist
Pharmacist
Masturbationist  
Machinist
Botanist
Quarterbackist
Gamblist
Humorist
Kardashianist

6. Take Charge Indy (15/1)
            Is the name of this horse paying homage to Indianapolis Motor Speedway? Peyton Manning? Reggie Miller? Bob Knight? Leaving the state of Indiana for a second, Indiana Jones? I demand answers.

5. Bodemiester (4/1)
            I can’t cheer for a horse that is owned by…


…this asshole

4. Prospective (30/1)
            I support any and all forms of prospecting (whether it be in relation to business, real estate, dating, ect.), so I’m a fan of the name. Also, Prospective has won 4 of its last 6 races. Even though he’s not my number one choice, Prospective is my favorite long shot winner. No Credentials will probably drop $5 on him just for kicks.   

3. Dullahan (8/1)
            Named after a headless Irish fairy, Dullahan’s trainers claim that even if he is in last place coming off of the first turn, he could still win the race. I’ll let the world know that Dullahan was firmly entrenched in the number one spot on this list until I found out that a fairy is involved in his name origin (another reminder, this blog is called No Credentials for a reason). 

2. Union Rags (4.5/1)
            Here’s my wife’s pick to win. Her interest in this horse may or may not be related to a slang term for the menstrual cycle.

1. I’ll Have Another (12/1)
            Flashbacks to nights of consuming multiple Jagerbombs and Budweisers drew me to this horse immediately. Also, assorted web pages give I.H.A. a good chance to win. So here’s the “No Credentials Horse That We’ll Blow $20 On” for 2012, I’ll Have Another. If you don’t have a dog in the fight, do us a favor and pull for him Saturday.




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