Pre-Chase Rankings

Field Filler

16. Paul Menard

            For proof that The Chase field is too large, look no further than Menard and his measly four top-10s this season.

15. Jamie McMurray

            Incredibly, this is the first time McMurray has ever made The Chase. He won’t stay in title contention very long.

14. Clint Bowyer

            Bowyer propelling his soon to be non-existent race team into the playoffs is a feat on it’s own.

13. Ryan Newman

            We love Newman, but the odds of him making another run like he did last year are remote.

I Don’t Think He Cares Anymore

12. Jeff Gordon

            Despite being in the midst of his worst season since his rookie year, Gordon has been smiling all over the place during his retirement tour. One of these days we’ll figure out at one point in the 2000s he stopped trying to be great.

They Have Speed, but Need to Get Hot

11. Carl Edwards

            Edwards has two wins this year, but one was by virtue of fuel mileage, and the other was on a track layout not like anything we’ll see in the final ten races. Furthermore, of all the winners this season, Edwards has the fewest top-5s and fewest top-10s.

10. Martin Truex Jr.

            Truex has cooled off considerably over the summer months, but with Dover and Loudon in the first round of The Chase, that could be a spring board for him returning to his early season form.

9. Denny Hamlin

            Hamlin has a decent track record of success at most of the tracks in the playoffs, and a win at Martinsville earlier in the year. If he makes it to the field of eight, Martinsville will give Hamlin his best chance of racing for the title at Homestead for the second year in a row.

You Can’t Count Them Out

8. Kurt Busch

            For a short time after his return from suspension, Busch was the only driver that could match Kevin Harvick’s consistency. That ability has waned over the summer, but Busch knows how to get it done in the playoffs and still has plenty of speed.

7. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

            Quietly, Junior has had the most consistent season of any of the Hendrick drivers in 2015. His dominance at the plate tracks this season bode well for him when the Sprint Cup returns to Talladega in October. His lack of Chase success is the only reason we don’t have him ranked in the top-5.

6. Brad Keselowski

            He’s third in top-10s, but Keselowski has just felt a little bit off all season. He’s let a couple of victories slip away, and hasn’t been able to match the level of performance on a week-to-week basis by his own teammate. Keselowski has won though at least one of the tracks in every round of The Chase, and is certainly capable of going on a hot streak.

5. Jimmie Johnson

            Johnson is tied for the most wins on the circuit, but he really hasn’t done much of anything since the spring. Summer swoons aren’t uncommon for Johnson, but Hendrick has fallen behind a few organizations in terms of overall speed for the first time in years. It’ll be a tall order for Johnson to earn his record tying seventh Cup title.

Our Final Four

4. Matt Kenseth

            Kenseth put an exclamation point on the regular season with a dominating run at Richmond. He has more momentum than anyone else in the garage.

3. Kyle Busch

            Kyle ripping off three straight wins in July to solidify his place in the playoffs was the most memorable run of the entire season. It will be interesting to see if he can overcome the demons of past postseason runs.

2. Joey Logano

            The Daytona 500 is second in both top-5s and top-10s to Kevin Harvick, and quietly is the most likely driver to knock Harvick off the throne.

1. Kevin Harvick

            Sure Harvick hasn’t won in a while, but his consistency has been remarkable. In 26 races, he’s posted 18 top-5s and 22 top-10s. We know he has Phoenix in the bag, so he is the most likely driver to be in the Final Four at Homestead.

2015 NASCAR Preview

At Daytona And Talladega We Have A Chance!

34. Ryan Blaney

            Blaney takes over for Trevor Bayne in the famous #21 Wood Brothers Ford. He’ll be running a partial schedule in Sprint Cup while running the full Xfinity Series slate for Roger Penske. The new alliance with Penske gives the #21 a better chance at respectability.

33. Casey Mears

            Keep cashing them checks Casey.

32. Justin Allgaier

            No Credentials really liked Allgaier when he was in Nationwide (now Xfinity). We’re bummed he never found a quality Cup ride.

31. David Reutimann

30. Cole Whitt

29. David Ragan

            It’s very strange that Front Row Motorsports was able to expand to three cars, while Roger Penske and Chip Ganassi only field two.

28. Danica Patrick

            In the last year of her contract with Stewart-Haas, Patrick is likely nearing the end of her NASCAR career.

27. Martin Truex Jr.

            He’ll be fast at the restrictor plate tracks, and field filler everywhere else.

26. Brian Vickers

            We’re pulling for Vickers after he underwent another heart operation during the off-season, but the troubles at Michael Waltrip Racing are likely to keep him mired in mediocrity.

25. Paul Menard

            Right along with Lake Speed’s win at Darlington in 1988, Menard’s 2011 Brickyard 400 victory ranks as one of the flukiest NASCAR results of all time.

Road Course Ringers (sadly, sans Ambrose and Montoya)

24. Sam Hornish

            For some reason Hornish is mentioned as a dark horse to win at a road course even though all of his Indy Car and Nationwide wins were on ovals.

           

23. A.J. Allmendinger

            Allmendinger delivered the moment of the year last year with his thrilling duel with Marcos Ambrose at Watkins Glen. He’s a good bet to notch another win at Sonoma or the Glen to make a second straight Chase.

Might Win a Race, Might Not

22. Tony Stewart

            We’re sticking a fork in the competitive NASCAR career of Tony Stewart.

21. Trevor Bayne

            It’s hard to believe Bayne won the Daytona 500, and even harder to believe that it took him four years to land a full-time Sprint Cup ride.

20. Kurt Busch

            If there were such an award for “Most Bizarre Legal Case”, crazy Kurt Busch against his physco ex-girlfriend would easily take top honors in 2015. 

19. Clint Bowyer

            No Credentials isn’t buying stock in MWR yet.

18. Kyle Busch

            We had Busch ranked second (mostly due to the changes in the Sprint Cup cars that make them more similar to Nationwide/Xfinity) before his brutal crash Saturday afternoon. There isn’t a great track record of success for guys that missed significant time due to injury, so this could be a lost year for him.

17. Austin Dillon

            Dillon was pretty vanilla in his rookie year, but we expect a slight rise to relevance at the super speedways in Dillon’s sophomore campaign.

16. Aric Almirola

            At times, Almirola was the most consistent Ford driver not employed by Roger Penske in 2014. We expect him to notch his first non-rain shortened victory this year.

15. Greg Biffle

            Biffle is the de facto leader of Roush Fenway Racing, which would be cool if Roush wasn’t a sinking ship.

14. Ryan Newman

            Newman nearly broke The Chase forever with his near championship winning run at Homestead last year. We don’t anticipate another remarkable run of consistency again, but we do predict Newman to return to victory lane.

13. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

            Stenhouse was abysmal last year, but he stands to gain from the Cup cars driving like the cars he piloted to two straight Nationwide titles in 2011 and 2012.

Inconsistent Wildcards

12. Jamie McMurray

            With all the big races McMurray was won over the years, it’s crazy that he has never made The Chase. That changes in 2015.

11. Kasey Kahne

            Hendrick Motorsports least inspiring driver should thank his lucky stars Jeff Gordon is retiring after this season, otherwise Chase Elliott would’ve been driving the five car next year instead.

10. Kyle Larson

            The most logical bet for a break through season, we’d be shocked if Larson didn’t win at least two races this year.

9. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

            Dale Jr.’s early returns look good after a strong showing in his Duel race Thursday night, but the real test will come when he needs to communicate adjustments to his new crew chief at Atlanta next week.

8. Denny Hamlin

            No one has Danica’s back more than Denny Hamlin.

Championship Contenders

7. Matt Kenseth

            Kenseth should at least return to victory lane, but we’re not forecasting a dominant season.

6. Jeff Gordon

            The Gordon retirement tour will be fun, but swan songs rarely if ever end with titles in any sport.

5. Kevin Harvick

            Harvick has a great chance of at least making the Final Four at Homestead with how good he is at Phoenix. That gives him a punchers chance at earning back-to-back titles.

4. Carl Edwards

            After doubting the high profile moves by Matt Kenseth and Kevin Harvick the last two years, we’re all in on Edwards in his debut season with Joe Gibbs Racing.

3. Jimmie Johnson

            2015 might be the last time we see Johnson paired with Crew Chief Chad Knaus if they don’t recapture some of their past magic.

The Favorites

2. Brad Keselowski

1. Joey Logano

            Penske Motorsports was the only team in the same league as Hendrick Motorsports last year, and both drivers should adjust to the rule changes based on their success in the Nationwide series. We’re forecasting that both will be in the Final Four, and one will end up hoisting the Sprint Cup.

NASCAR Pre-Chase Driver Ranks

            Every year before The Chase we rank who we feel has the most likely shot at hoisting the Sprint Cup. Keep in mind that this list doesn’t represent how we feel the final points will shake out, or who will be included in the Final 4 at Homestead. The new format makes it even harder to predict, as the winner take all finale will be one of the most ridiculous races in NASCAR history, but we’ve reviewed each round of the Chase, and the tracks that represent each driver’s best chances of advancing. Without further ado, our countdown to our pick to win the championship.

Complete and Utter Afterthoughts

16. A.J. Allmendinger

15. Aric Almirola

            Both earned well-deserved first career victories this year (with Allmendinger’s drive at Watkins Glen being the most dramatic finish of the season so far), but they have virtually no chance at winning the title. Almirola did run well at both Loudon and Dover earlier in the season (which are both in the first playoff segment), so there is the minute possibility he could sneak into the round of 12.

Happy to Be Here

14. Greg Biffle

13. Carl Edwards

            The demise of Roush-Fenway Racing has been well documented, and there’s no reason to expect a sudden revival during The Chase. Edwards is a lame duck driver, and Biffle has less Top-5s this season than Paul Menard. 

12. Ryan Newman

            Newman’s season has been just as uninspiring as Biffle’s, but at least he has been more competitive during the summer months. He does have three career wins at Loudon and Dover, which gives him a reasonable chance of making it to the round of 12. 

11. Kasey Kahne

            The greatest enigma of the entire NASCAR season has been Kahne’s inability to be consistently competitive this season. He needed a miraculous run at Atlanta just to be included in The Chase. If he can survive the first segment, Charlotte represents his best chance at cracking the Elite 8.

10. Denny Hamlin

            Hamlin has been more competent than you would think this season, as even with missing a race he would’ve made the playoffs without his win at Talladega. One can’t help but think he’s third on the Gibbs totem pole though.

Unpopular Dark Horses

9. Kyle Busch

8. Kurt Busch

            The Busch boys have only one win, both have occasionally had speed, and both have had an abundance of mechanical issues and crashes. We rank Kurt ahead of Kyle simply because the Hendrick powered Chevrolets have been stronger than the Gibbs Toyotas. 

Fatally Flawed

7. Matt Kenseth

            Kenseth is an honoree for hardest working driver of the year, as he’s tied for second in top-10s and tied for third in top-5s while piloting an underpowered Toyota Camry all year. Martinsville is the only track in the playoffs he has never won at, so it wouldn’t be a total shock to see him go on a run. Ultimately though, the lack of top end horsepower will do him in.

6. Kevin Harvick

            Happy Harvick has had fast cars all season long, but is saddled with the worst pit crew of any driver in the playoffs. His first year of the win was at Phoenix, so if he can repeat that feat he’ll be ticketed for the Final 4 at Homestead.

5. Jimmie Johnson

            With the exception of a stretch where he won three out of four just before the official start of summer, Six-Time has been riddled with tire issues all season. That could be the result of some experimenting by evil warlord crew chief Chad Knaus, but it just doesn’t feel like a championship season for Jimmie Johnson.

Stout Contenders

4. Joey Logano

            We’ve said it at least twice earlier this year, but it’s worth repeating…there really isn’t enough praise for a kid that’s only 24 years old being a legitimate championship contender. Logano has led laps in 18 of the 26 events this season, and has had speed everywhere. Other than his teammate, no one has more momentum than him going into the playoffs with Top-10 finishes in six of his last seven races.

3. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

            Junior’s performance this year has been a huge shot in the arm for the sport, and it’s safe to assume that he should be a force throughout the playoffs. He’s tied for the most Top-5s with Brad Keselowski, and there isn’t a track on the schedule that he shouldn’t have speed at. The only reason we don’t have him in the top tier is the fact that we haven’t seen him post a competitive Chase showing since the first one in 2004.

The Favorites

2. Brad Keselowski

            Keselowski has been a little boom or bust this season, but some of that can be attributed to risk taking after securing a Chase spot early in the season. Penske Racing has had the most consistent qualifying program on a weekly basis, giving Keselowski premium track position right from the get go. The only reason we have some reservations about Keselowski winning is the third slate of elimination races. He’ll be fast at Texas, but Phoenix and Martinsville aren’t his strongest tracks on the circuit. 

1. Jeff Gordon

            Gordon has driven like a man possessed this year, posting more Top-10s than any other driver, and for the first time in many years looking like a guy hungry to win a title. He’s had success at every track in The Chase, and most importantly, has a win at Homestead under his belt. There’s a chance that he’ll be the only driver in the Final 4 that can say that. We’re signing off on Gordon as our predicted winner of the 2014 Sprint Cup.

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Weekend (3/7-3/9)

10. Rashard Mendenhall Retires From NFL
            This is noteworthy because Mendenhall is only 26, and at the very least could’ve been a productive goal line back for the next few seasons. Hopefully he’s banked plenty of money.

9. Cuban Free Agent Aledmys Diaz Signs With St. Louis

            Major League Baseball’s best-run organization makes it’s most dramatic foray into the international market with the inking of this year’s best international prospect. If Diaz kills it in Triple-A, he could be in the big leagues before July.

8. Wichita State Wins Conference Tournament, Will Enter NCAA Tourney 34-0

            Among a tournament field where the majority of the favorites are anchored by one-and-done freshmen, Wichita State could be the most complete team in the field. We’ll see how they do when they have to run through a slate of major conference opponents.

7. Two Ohio High Schools Share State Championship After Seven Overtime Periods
            Old school, Republican me says that Sylvania Northview and Cleveland St. Ignatius should have kept playing. New-wave, Democrat me says that it was ridiculous that high-school kids were even allowed to play what was the equivalent of over 3 regulation games in one night. Moderate me says they should’ve ended it with a shoot-out.

6. Henrik Lundqvist Pitches Shutout For Career Win #300

            There hasn’t been a more consistently dominant goalie in THE NATIONAL HOCKEY LEAGUE post-lockout since King Henrik. Sunday’s blanking of the Red Wings puts him one win shy of the Ranger’s franchise record.

5. Jodie Meeks Goes Bonkers, Gives Lakers Reason to Celebrate

            Overcoming a triple-double from Kevin Durant, Meeks outscored Oklahoma City by himself in the third quarter on Sunday.

4. Creighton’s Doug McDermott Tops 3,000 Career Points

            To put this accomplishment in perspective, McDermott is only the eighth player in NCAA Division I history to surpass 3,000 points. Creighton could make some noise as a #3 or #4 seed, depending on how they perform in the Big East tournament.
      
3. Chicago Pulls Out Overtime Victory Against Miami
            Even with Derrick Rose injured, and Luol Deng shipped away in what was essentially a giant salary dump, Chicago still has themselves positioned as a major pain in the ass for the two time defending champions.
         
2. Jabari Parker Nets Career High 30 Against Tar Heels
            While most assume Parker is slated to be one of the prizes of the 2014 NBA Draft, he’s still claiming he hasn’t made up his mind yet about returning to Duke next year.

1. Junior’s Tank Runs Dry, Keselowski Wins at Las Vegas

            Anyone that had doubts about the new NASCAR format for the Chase this year can put those to bed. We wouldn’t of had Sunday’s dramatic finish without it.

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Weekend (2/21-2/23)

10. San Francisco Giants Hire Barry Bonds as a Spring Training Instructor
            No word yet on whether or not his official title will be “Chemical Engineer”.

9. Regan Smith Wins Nationwide Race at Daytona

            For at least one week (and odds are, only one week), Nationwide drivers have more wins than Sprint Cup ones on the junior circuit.

8. Ronda Rousey Doesn’t Need an Armbar to Win

            A swift knee to the liver worked just fine.

7. USA Men’s Hockey Team Forgets How to Score Goals
            That’s a problem when you’re facing Canada for the right to play in the gold medal game, and then getting blown out by Finland with a chance to earn a bronze.

6. Kevin Love Drops First Career Triple Double

            It’s hard to believe that the man that throws the prettiest outlet passes since Bill Walton hadn’t recorded a triple-double yet.

5. Jim Boeheim Loses His Mind

            In the short term, Boeheim’s ejection Saturday night sealed a second straight loss for Syracuse, but going forward perhaps his outburst will help wake his team up for the stretch run.

4. Jason Collins Makes Season Debut For Nets

            Collins historic appearance (he’s the first openly gay athlete to appear in a game in any of the four major sports leagues) resulted in 2 boards, 1 steal, and several hard screens that freed up his teammates.
         
3. Clippers Win a Shootout in Oklahoma City
            Jamal Crawford went bonkers in this one with 36 points, which trumped a 42-10 effort from Kevin Durant. He delivered Los Angeles’ their best road win of the season.
         
2. Canada Dominates Sweden, Wins Olympic Men’s Hockey Gold Medal
            Even on the larger international ice, Canada’s elite defensive corps was able to swallow up the talented Swedes.

1. Dale Earnhardt Dominates Under the Lights, Wins Second Daytona 500

            Withstanding a six-hour rain delay, Junior cranked it up in primetime. You’ll be hard pressed to find a more grateful winner than Dale Earnhardt Jr. yesterday.

2014 NASCAR Preview

            Normally we write about 10,000 words in our NASCAR preview, but you can thank a ridiculous week of winter weather for shrinking this piece down to 1,100. We rank the drivers in order of the best odds we give each of winning the Sprint Cup.

30. Trevor Bayne, #21 Motorcraft Ford, Wood Brothers

            It’s hard to believe that Trevor Bayne won the Daytona 500 three years ago, and still hasn’t managed to secure a full-time Cup ride.

29. Parker Kligerman, #30 Lending Tree Toyota, Swan Racing

            Kligerman is the rare combination of talented rookie and upstart team. Swan Racing has investors dumping money into it left and right, so it would be fun to see the 23-year old have some success this season.

28. David Ragan, #34 MHP Ford, Front Row Motorsports

            If this year’s “WIN OR GO HOME BITCH” playoff format were in place in 2013, Ragan would’ve been racing for the title when The Chase started. That’s a reason why this format won’t work.

27. Danica Patrick, #10 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing

            After a listless first full season in Sprint Cup, it’s hard to forecast Patrick having success anywhere other than Daytona or Talladega.

26. A.J. Allmendinger, #47 Kroger Toyota, JTG Daugherty Racing

            It hasn’t taken nearly as long as most experts expected for Allmendinger to secure a full-time Sprint Cup ride. The 47 doesn’t usually have a lot of speed, but he’ll be pesky at Sonoma and Watkins Glen.

25. Paul Menard, #27 Menard’s Chevrolet, Richard Childress Racing

            Menard shockingly has competition for the title of “most notable trust fund child in Sprint Cup” from new teammate Austin Dillon.

24. Martin Truex Jr., #78 Furniture Row Chevrolet, Furniture Row Racing

            When everyone watches Truex struggle in the #78, we’ll get a true appreciation for how awesome Kurt Busch’s 2013 campaign really was.

23. Aric Almirola, #43 Smithfield Foods Ford, Richard Petty Motorsports

            I can’t name one notable thing Almirola has ever done since getting the keys to the #43.

22. Austin Dillon, #3 Dow Chemicals/Cheerios Chevrolet, Richard Childress Racing

            Dillon has talent, but just like Ricky Stenhouse Jr. last year, he will have growing pains. Remember that he didn’t even win a race last year in Nationwide despite winning the championship.

21. Jamie McMurray, #1 Bass Pro Shops/McDonalds Chevrolet, Ganassi Racing

            There isn’t anything my wife enjoys more during a NASCAR event than the sight of Jamie McMurray bawling in victory lane.

20. Brian Vickers, #55 Aaron’s Toyota, Michael Waltrip Racing

            Sort of like when an effective NBA reserve gets bumped up to starters minutes, we think Vickers will suffer a drop in “per-race” production.

19. Marcos Ambrose, #9 Stanley Ford, Richard Petty Motorsports

            The new playoff format gives Marcos Ambrose, who’s the most dominant road course racer of the last decade, a 50% chance of making The Chase.

18. Kyle Larson, #42 Target Chevrolet, Ganassi Racing

            Not since Kyle Busch has Sprint Cup had a rookie with as much raw talent as Kyle Larson. We wouldn’t be surprised at all if he stole a win at one of the short tracks.

17. Ryan Newman, #31 Caterpillar Chevrolet, Richard Childress Racing

            We’re happy Newman landed a full-time ride after getting the boot from Stewart-Haas Racing, but the #31 group has been struggling for years now.

16. Ricky Stenhouse Jr., #17 Best Buy/Zest Ford, Roush-Fenway Racing

            Mr. Patrick’s second half of 2013 gives plenty of reasons to be optimistic about his sophomore campaign.

15. Joey Logano, #22 Shell-Pennzoil Ford, Penske Racing

            His early season feud with Denny Hamlin last year (which ended up with Logano pulling a Bane and breaking Hamlin’s back in California) was one of the top five events of the 2013 season. It would do Logano some good to cut the drama, but we don’t think he’s at that point in his career yet.

14. Greg Biffle, #16 3M Ford, Roush-Fenway Racing

            The end of relevance for The Biff is coming.

13. Tony Stewart, #14 Mobil 1 Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing
            If anyone is going to come back from a busted leg and compete for wins it’s Tony Stewart, but we’re expecting some bumps in the road as he shakes the rust off.

12. Dale Earnhardt Jr., #88 National Guard Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            Evidently, if the new points format were in place last year, Dale Earnhardt Jr. would’ve won the 2013 title. Which is ironic, because he didn’t win a race.

11. Denny Hamlin, #11 Fed-Ex Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing

            I can honestly say I have no idea where to rank Hamlin. I had him at 15 before he won the race formerly known as the Bud Shootout and his qualifying race.

10. Kasey Kahne, #5 Farmers Insurance Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            Kahne jumps to the top of my list for a guy that benefits from a championship format mostly based on wins, as he’s never had the race to race consistency for point racing.

9. Kurt Busch, #41 Haas Automation Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing

            It took two years in NASCAR purgatory, but Kurt Busch is finally back with an elite team.

8. Kevin Harvick, #4 Budweiser Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing

            The number and team are different, but we don’t expect a dramatic change in production from Harvick in his first year with Stewart-Haas.

7. Jeff Gordon, #24 Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            We think Gordon has one more serious championship run in him. A win based championship structure works in his favor.

6. Clint Bowyer, #15 5-Hour Energy Toyota, Michael Waltrip Racing

            The face of MWR’s manipulation of the regular season finale last year at Richmond, we actually expect Bowyer to contend for more wins now that his team has consolidated to two cars.

5. Brad Keselowski, #2 Miller Lite Ford, Penske Racing

            Sprint Cup’s 2012 champ had a miserable, snake bit regular season during his title defense, but a strong showing during the final ten races gives many reasons to believe he can return to a championship caliber level.

4. Matt Kenseth, #20 Home Depot Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing

            There’s typically a “runner-up hangover” for the driver that finishes second in the points the previous season, but the #20 car looks like it won’t skip a beat after winning a Duel race Thursday night.

3. Kyle Busch, #18 M&Ms Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing

            After Kasey Kahne, here’s our second driver the new format favors the most. He’s plenty capable of qualifying for each round of the playoffs with a win.

2. Carl Edwards, #99 Fastenal Ford, Roush-Fenway Racing

            No driver is better at Homestead than Carl Edwards, which gives him a decided advantage if he is in title contention going into the season finale.

1. Jimmie Johnson, #48 Lowe’s Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            It would be a severe case of tomfoolery to rank any other driver first as Johnson begins his quest for a record tying seventh championship.

2013 Chase for the Sprint Cup Predictions

            It’s bee one of the weirdest seasons in NASCAR history (punctuated by Michael Waltrip Racing’s dishonorable manipulation of the regular season finale. Good luck with no sponsors next year asshole), which has led to one of the more eclectic Chase fields in recent memory. We break down the 12-car field, plus discuss three bonus drivers who woulda-shoulda-coulda been in The Chase. 
 

He’d Be In The Chase, But He Broke His Leg

15. Tony Stewart - #14 Mobil/Bass Pro Shops Chevrolet – Stewart Haas Racing

            The 3-time champion (and the only man to win under the old and new points system) wasn’t a shoe-in for The Chase, but likely would’ve ended up with the second wildcard spot if it wasn’t for breaking his leg in a sprint car accident. He wouldn’t have been a favorite to win the title, but everyone (including Tony Stewart) was saying the same thing before his improbable 2011 run.
 

The Real Victim

14. Jeff Gordon - #24 – Hendrick Motorsports

            Lost in all the discussion about Ryan Newman replacing Martin Truex Jr. in The Chase is Jeff Gordon, who at the time of caution Saturday night was tenth in points, which would’ve secured a spot in The Chase. Don’t be surprised if we get a repeat of last November’s race at Phoenix multiple times during The Chase.

 

It Wasn’t His Fault

13. Martin Truex Jr. - #56 Napa Toyota – Michael Waltrip Racing

            Maybe Truex knew there was a plan before the race to help get him in. Maybe he didn’t. Regardless, he drove his ass off to keep Jeff Gordon behind him in the closing laps, and didn’t appear to have any knowledge of why the caution came out. His team deserved the penalty, but it sucks for the driver who had nothing to do with bringing out the caution.
   

Karma is a Bitch

12. Clint Bowyer - #15 5-Hour Energy Toyota – Michael Waltrip Racing

Tied for 8^th in Chase Seeding With 0 Wins
            The only person happy with Clint Bowyer is Kyle Busch, and that’s because there’s finally someone that NASCAR fans will boo louder than him during pre-race introductions.

Happy to Be Here

11. Greg Biffle - #16 3M Ford – Roush Fenway Racing

Tied for 6^th in Chase Seeding With 1 Win
            Roush is going to put all of its eggs in the Carl Edwards basket.

10. Dale Earnhardt Jr. - #88 AMP Energy Chevrolet – Hendrick Motorsports

Tied for 8^th in Chase Seeding With 0 Wins
            Not since the inaugural Chase has Dale Earnhardt Jr. been relevant in it. We don’t forecast anything different this year.

9. Kurt Busch - #78 Furniture Row Chevrolet – Furniture Row Racing

Tied for 8^th in Chase Seeding With 0 Wins
            Kurt making it in with Furniture Row Racing will be the second most impressive thing accomplished in NASCAR this season, only topped by whoever wins the title.
 

Punchers Chance at Making Noise

8. Kasey Kahne - #5 Farmers Insurance Chevrolet – Hendrick Motorsports

Tied For 8^th in Chase Seeding With Wildcard Entry
            Flopping from one of the fastest cars onto the track to hovering around mid-pack from week to week is not a formula for success. It’s not impossible for Kahne to string together ten solid races in a weakened Chase field, but we won’t bet on it.

7. Kevin Harvick - #29 Budweiser Chevrolet – Richard Childress Racing
Tied For 4^th in Chase Seeding With 2 Wins
            We’ll stand behind our theory we applied last season to Matt Kenseth about a lame duck driver not having a chance in The Chase.

6. Ryan Newman - #39 Quicken Loans/Outback Steakhouse Chevrolet – Stewart Haas Racing

Tied For 8^th in Chase Seeding With Wildcard Entry
            He’s riding a solid wave of one part momentum and one part good will, but he won’t be able to avoid the lame duck stink in the end.

5. Joey Logano - #22 Shell-Pennzoil Ford – Penske Racing
Tied For 6^th in Chase Seeding With 1 Win
            Throw out his middling performance at Richmond (which thankfully, is a type of track he won’t see in The Chase) and Logano was the hottest driver during the month of August. He’ll have speed at the 1.5 milers, but you should expect some inexperience to bite him in the end.
 

The Favorites

4. Matt Kenseth - #20 Home Depot Toyota – Joe Gibbs Racing

1^st in Chase Seeding With 5 Wins
            Throw out his Bristol win, and it’s been a fairly ordinary summer for Kenseth. He’ll be in the mix, but needs to recapture his early season form to win the championship.

3. Jimmie Johnson - #48 Lowe’s Chevrolet – Hendrick Motorsports

Tied For 2^nd in Chase Seeding With 4 Wins
            Jimmie Johnson’s last four finishes of 28th or worse are not fooling me. Johnson will be in the mix until Homestead.

2. Carl Edwards - #99 Subway/Fastenal/UPS/Kellogg’s Ford – Roush Fenway Racing

Tied For 4^th in Chase Seeding With 2 Wins
            Quietly, Edwards was the point’s leader at the end of the NASCAR regular season. In a diminished Chase field, a consistent ten races might be enough for Cousin Carl to win his first championship.

 

The Favorite  

1. Kyle Busch - #18 M&Ms Toyota – Joe Gibbs Racing

Tied For 2^nd in Chase Seeding With 4 Wins
            I get it. Busch has never done anything in The Chase. In fact, it’s been mostly embarrassing. However, he has too much talent, and among the favorites, the most momentum after a solid summer. There’s no Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, Jeff Gordon, or Brad Keselowski to deal with. If he out performs the three drivers we just mentioned, it’s his championship. He normally flames out early in The Chase, so it won’t take long to see if our prediction is correct.

2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup Preview

EDITORS NOTE: The entire following preview was written before the horrific last lap crash in today’s Nationwide. At the time of this posting, one fan is in critical condition with significant brain trauma and is in surgery. Our thoughts and prayers go out to all the fans and families impacted by Saturday’s unfortunate accident.

35. David Stremme, #30 Toyota, Swan Racing

            The new owner of Swan Racing says he wants to “compete for victories”, and vows not to be a start and park. David Stremme is the wrong driver to accomplish that goal with.

34. Dave Blaney, #36 Accell Construction Chevrolet, Tommy Baldwin Racing

            Other than the jet dryer explosion, the most incredible development from last year’s Daytona 500 was Dave Blaney trending on Twitter.

33. David Gilliland, #38 Mod Space Ford, Front Row Motorsports

32. Casey Mears, #13 Geico Toyota, Germain Racing
            Here are a couple of dudes that incredibly, are still employed as Sprint Cup drivers.

31. Bobby Labonte, #47 Kroger Toyota, JTG Daugherty Racing

            Click the above link if you don’t believe me when I say Bobby Labonte was the 2000 Winston Cup champion.

30. David Ragan, #34, MHP Ford, Front Row Motorsports

            Poor David Ragan is still stuck in NASCAR purgatory at Front Row Motorsports.

29. Trevor Bayne, #21 Motorcraft Ford, Wood Brothers

            This will be Bayne’s last part-time season driving the legendary #21 before driving for Jack Roush in Sprint Cup next year.

28. Regan Smith, #51 Tag Heuer Chevrolet, Phoenix Racing

27. A.J. Allmendinger #51 Tag Heuer Chevrolet, Phoenix Racing
            We’ll have a greater appreciation for Kurt Busch after we see what this duo does in James Finch’s cars.

26. Danica Patrick, #10 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing

            She’ll compete at restrictor plate tracks but it’s still a steep learning curve everywhere else.

25. Paul Menard, #27 Menard’s Chevrolet, Richard Childress Racing

            Remember when Paul Menard stole the Brickyard 400 from Jeff Gordon a couple of years back? Me neither.

24. Mark Martin/Brian Vickers/Michael Waltrip, #55 Aaron’s Dream Machine Toyota, Michael Waltrip Racing

            There has never been a better performing car that was shared by multiple drivers in the past 30 years than the #55 Toyota. If Martin were driving it full-time, he’d be ranked in the top-12.

23. Jeff Burton, #31 Caterpillar Chevrolet, Richard Childress Racing

            Kevin Harvick’s departure after the season is the only reason Burton has a chance of keeping his ride for 2014.

22. Jamie McMurray, #1 McDonalds Chevrolet, Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing

            That year where McMurray won a few times and was crying all over the place was pretty fun.

21. Aric Almirola, #43 Smithfield Foods Ford, Richard Petty Motorsports

            Almirola did just enough last year to earn a second go around at RPM, but it will likely take a win for him to secure employment for 2014.

20. Kurt Busch, #78 Furniture Row Chevrolet, Furniture Row Racing

            I don’t know what to make of Kurt Busch this year, but three straight top-10s to close out 2012 is an encouraging sign for the 2004 Nextel Cup champion. His best chance to sneak into The Chase will be stealing a couple of wins between the two road courses or the short tracks.

19. Ryan Newman, #39 Quicken Loans Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing

           It feels like the end of the line for Newman, as he was only able to lock up a one-year deal with Stewart-Haas. I expect him to enter the Bobby Labonte phase of his career next season.

18. Marcos Ambrose, #9 Stanley Ford, Richard Petty Motorsports

            Both of Ambrose’s career victories have been the most exciting finishes of the ‘10s so far. He needs to add a win at Sonoma to make the playoffs.
      
17. Joey Logano, #22 Pennzoil Ford, Penske Racing
            I like Logano’s move to Penske for the long-term, but I see an adjustment period between joining a new team and adapting to the Gen-6 car.

16. Juan Pablo Montoya, #42 Target Chevrolet, Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing

            Montoya put on a show when he gained ten spots to finish third in Thursday’s first Dual. It was almost a tenth as entertaining as his crash into the jet dryer last year.

15. Martin Truex Jr., #56 Napa Toyota, Michael Waltrip Racing

            Truex was the biggest surprise of the 2012 season before his team flamed out in The Chase. No Credentials forecasts a significant regression, as his lack of win potential limits his chances of earning a wildcard spot.

14. Ricky Stenhouse Jr., #17 Best Buy Ford, Roush-Fenway Racing

            Mr. Danica Patrick is the best Sprint Cup rookie the series has seen since Denny Hamlin. It won’t likely result in a Chase bid, but I’d be surprised if Stenhouse doesn’t pull into victory lane this year.

13. Kevin Harvick, #29 Budweiser Chevrolet, Richard Childress Racing

            I had Harvick pegged at 17 before he went 2-2 in his first two races of Speedweeks. Nevertheless, lame ducks do not win championships.

12. Greg Biffle, #16 3M Ford, Roush-Fenway Racing

            Biffle had his best year since 2005, but he struggles too much at short tracks to be considered a serious championship threat.

11. Tony Stewart, #14 Mobil 1 Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing

            Ironically enough, I had Stewart ranked at 11 in my 2011 Chase Preview column. We all know how that turned out.

10. Matt Kenseth, #20 The Home Depot Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing

            Kenseth will do well in his first season, but I don’t believe he will become the lead driver at Gibbs over Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin. Regardless, it’s really bizarre to see the former champion in anything other than the #17.

9. Dale Earnhardt Jr., #88 National Guard Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            I bet you didn’t know that Junior posted the best average finish of his career in 2012. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that the switch to the new cars will benefit him more than any other driver.

8. Clint Bowyer, #15 5-Hour Energy Toyota, Michael Waltrip Racing

            Bowyer enjoyed remarkable success in his first season at MWR, so expect a slight return to Earth in 2013.

7. Carl Edwards, #99 Fastenal/Subway/UPS/Aflac/Kellogg’s Ford, Roush-Fenway Racing

            Edwards had a disastrous 2012, but history is on his side (sort of). Edwards was a popular pick to win the championship in 2006, but went winless and ended up 12^th in points. He rebounded to win three races in 2007. In 2009, Edwards was again a title favorite after collecting a series high nine victories. Edwards again went winless, but rebounded to win twice and finish fourth in the points in 2010. In other words, the last two times Carl was coming off a shitty year, he rebounded. Inheriting the bulk of Matt Kenseth’s former crew will only help his cause.

6. Jimmie Johnson, #48 Lowe’s Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            Johnson’s days of winning championships are done. You heard it here first.

5. Jeff Gordon, #24 Dupont Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            Gordon never got a hold of the Car of Tomorrow, so following Dale Jr., he’s the second driver who should benefit the most from the car switch. If only he could get Ray Evernham back on his pit box.

4. Denny Hamlin, #11 Fed-Ex Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing

            Hamlin would’ve had a puncher’s chance at last season’s championship if not for a disastrous day at Martinsville, which historically, is his best track. He stands to benefit the most from the addition of Matt Kenseth to Joe Gibbs Racing.

3. Brad Keselowski, #2 Miller Lite Ford, Penske Racing

            Bad Brad is just what NASCAR needs. A young, brash young champion who is relatively relatable to the common man. Penske’s switch to Ford was made easier thanks to it coinciding with the switch to the Gen-6 cars.

2. Kyle Busch, #18 M&Ms Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing

            Entering his late-20s, Kyle Busch is just entering his prime (which is hard to believe, because he’s been driving in Sprint Cup for eight years). It’s a matter of time before he puts it all together for a championship-winning season.

1. Kasey Kahne, #5 Farmers Insurance Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            Kahne’s first season with Hendrick couldn’t have started any worse, but he still rallied to a fourth place finish in points. With a year under his belt, look for Kahne to lead the Hendrick charge and capture his first career Sprint Cup title.

Better Late Than Never Mailbag (10-27-12)

It's been a while since we emptied the inbox, so here you go. As always, these may or may not be actual messages from real or fake people.

Who would you rather party with, Wade Boggs, Oil Can Boyd, or Josh Beckett? – Tom A., Goffstown, NH

            We’re ruling Beckett out without hesitation because while he likes to drink beer, he’d probably just talk about his ranch in Texas the whole time. Choosing between Boggs and Boyd depends on your tastes. Legend has it that Wade Boggs once drank between 60-70 beers on a cross-country flight, and was famous for eating fried chicken before every game (keep in mind his career lasted 18 years, and baseball teams play 162 games a year). Oil Can Boyd has similar interests, with the added element of cocaine. Booger-sugar has never been something I’ve been interested in, so I’ll party with Boggs. 

Is Dale Earnhardt Jr. a hero or a pansy for seeking out medical help and missing two races? – Floyd P., Mobile, AL

            If the injury had to do with any body part other than his head, I’d say he was taking the easy way out. As it was, if he was in the top-5 in the points, I guaruantee he wouldn’t of visited the doctor after his Talladega crash. There’s too much to lose for a championship contending driver to take a race off. Hopefully Junior will not have further issues (concussions ruined Ricky Craven’s driving career, to name one example) and can be a championship threat in 2013.

What do you think of the NFL playing in London? – Janice L., Brownfield, ME

            I’ve never been a fan of it. It takes a home date away from a team (this Sunday, the Rams are technically the home team, even though the ratio of people that know who Tom Bray is as compared to the number of people who know who Sam Bradford is 150,000-1 in the U.K.), which in the name of fairness, is wrong. If this Sunday’s game was played in St. Louis, Tom Brady and the sputtering Patriots offense (more on that later) would have to play against a defense that has laid it all on the line every week so far this season in a loud dome. Instead, New England essentially gets a ninth home game. I’m all for using preseason to showcase the NFL in other countries, but playing games that actually count overseas is ridiculous.
 

Would you put money on anyone other than Miami or the Lakers in the Finals? – Ben B., Buford, GA

            If I understand the wording of this question right, we’re asking if any of the other 28 teams could win the championship. The only team I’d logically consider betting would be Oklahoma City. They have the depth and the star-power needed to make a championship run, even if they would have to beat both Los Angeles and Miami to do it. Unfortunately if you’re betting at a casino, you’re only getting 3.5-1 on your money if you place a futures bet on the Thunder. If you don’t mind potentially pissing money away, Boston at 12-1, Philadelphia at 30-1 (would need a healthy Andrew Bynum and an Evan Turner breakout year to make some noise), and Denver at 40-1 (ton of talent, but who’s their crunch-time guy?) are the most logical long-shot bets.

So there’s no hockey right now, and no one gives a shit. Why? – Paul J., Ithaca, NY

            Diehard hockey fans are different than most sports fans. They are more willing too consume lower talent level leagues if the NHL isn’t available. They are watching minor leagues, college, high school, or overseas league games. If MLB were to go on strike again, hardcore seam-heads wouldn’t start watching college games or Triple-A games. Hockey fans enjoy the game itself, regardless of the level of talent they are seeing. There isn’t the outcry from this group like there was during the NFL lockout a year ago.
            As for casual fans, we’re too busy watching NFL games and the World Series. The NBA showed that they could survive without having games until Christmas last year. There’s simply too much going on right now for most casual fans to say, “Hey, why aren’t the Bruins playing?” Casual fans won’t be looking for hockey until it’s the usual time for the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Sadly, the owners know they can get away with a lockout, and until the players bend to their wants and needs, there will be no NHL.

What’s going to happen to Tim Tebow? He’s nowhere to be found in a Jets uniform! – Janice L., Brownfield, ME

            Barring a Mark Sanchez injury (it appears there isn’t a level of play bad enough that will force Rex Ryan to bench him), Tebow will continue to fill the role of “interesting hood ornament”. He was brought in to get attention and generate headlines, and I think that’s what the Jets will try to milk out of him for the rest of the season before Jacksonville trades the Jets a third round pick for Tebow next spring. Or even better, maybe he'll get cut and the Patriots will sign him to replace Danny Woodhead (more on that in the next answer).

Lots of finger pointing with the Patriots this year due to their early issues (though they have only lost the 3 games by a combined total of 4 points). Things like Josh McDaniels is too cute/arrogant at times with his playcalling, the secondary if awful, Bill Belichick is not the defensive "genius" he once was, Brady has lost his grip on executing in pressure situations, the offense can't close out games, etc. Obviously its a combination of many things, but what do you think is the most significant factor? – Mike S., Keene, NH

            Mike covered most of the points, but here’s a bullet form list that I will then choose the most significant factor from.

-         Too much Danny Woodhead (I get it that he’s a short white-guy so naturally most people from New England love him, but the dude averages 3.5 yards a carry. The Patriots three other runningbacks average 5.4, 5.0, and 4.4 yards a carry. Let’s bring Woodhead in on 3^rd down passing situations and never hand off to him. EVER)

-         Lack of a dominant pass rusher

-         Lousy secondary

-         Poor offensive playcalling (has there been anything more comical than watching Tom Brady attempted 12 back-shoulder fade passes a game to Brandon Lloyd?)

           To answer the question, we’ll put bullet points one and four together. Josh McDaniels needs to utilize his weapons better with more high percentage plays, and stick with the running game when it is working. If he wants to make sure he doesn’t keep hurting himself, he can hit Woodhead in the knee with a crowbar.

Bobby Valentine rolled David Ortiz under the bus the other day. Shouldn’t he of done that before he was fired? – Rick S., Worcester, MA

            Valentine seems like a guy who likes making headlines, so it could’ve helped him out in that department.

Who has the better chance of coming back, Mariano Rivera or Derek Jeter? – Janice L., Brownfield, ME

            With reports out now that Rivera is having second thoughts about returning next season (remember, he was more than likely going to retire if he didn’t blow out his knee shagging fly balls in batting practice), Jeter has to be the choice. A broken ankle isn’t a picnic, but the rehabilitation needed to fully recover from that injury is much less significant than returning from a torn ACL. 

The NBA is dropping the center spot from the All-Star ballot. Why is this news? – Marcus S., Irvine, CA

            David Stern has made it a habit of putting out odd press releases in the fall to try to steal headlines from the NFL. Chalk this up as another attempt at a fun headline. It’s a shame we’ll only get to enjoy them for two more years.

A pound of gold and one of feathers weighs the same. (But carrying one or the other is very different)
Pitcher "A" can through a ball @ 100 MPH. And so can pitcher "B". (Very differently)
Don't even get me started on terminal velocity, apples, and gravitational pull. (122 MPH versus Red Bull)
Anyone can look through a scope and see the target. (100 meters - to calculating the curvature of the earth @ 1.5 miles)
Hell, I was under the impression that having one testicle gave you an advantage. (One nut, two nut, three nut, dope)
Eat eggs, don't eat eggs. (Eat or be eaten...trust me those nasty birds would start w/ your eyes)
Men. Don't carry cellular devices in your front pocket and turn them off while in flight. (Like dodging a bullet is a bad thing)
Girl- "I don't care how big it is"
Guys translation- "I have a small penis"
Girl " you are huge!"
Guys translation- "she is lying" (self explanatory)
I'm going to get another Tattoo. (If I didn't have one, I wouldn't have any)
My question? What passed through your mind in the last 10 minutes dick? – Ryan B., Kearsarge, NH

            I’d love to share it, but would be embarrassed to reveal how much of those 10 minutes would be filled up by children’s television programming.