2015 NASCAR Preview

At Daytona And Talladega We Have A Chance!

34. Ryan Blaney

            Blaney takes over for Trevor Bayne in the famous #21 Wood Brothers Ford. He’ll be running a partial schedule in Sprint Cup while running the full Xfinity Series slate for Roger Penske. The new alliance with Penske gives the #21 a better chance at respectability.

33. Casey Mears

            Keep cashing them checks Casey.

32. Justin Allgaier

            No Credentials really liked Allgaier when he was in Nationwide (now Xfinity). We’re bummed he never found a quality Cup ride.

31. David Reutimann

30. Cole Whitt

29. David Ragan

            It’s very strange that Front Row Motorsports was able to expand to three cars, while Roger Penske and Chip Ganassi only field two.

28. Danica Patrick

            In the last year of her contract with Stewart-Haas, Patrick is likely nearing the end of her NASCAR career.

27. Martin Truex Jr.

            He’ll be fast at the restrictor plate tracks, and field filler everywhere else.

26. Brian Vickers

            We’re pulling for Vickers after he underwent another heart operation during the off-season, but the troubles at Michael Waltrip Racing are likely to keep him mired in mediocrity.

25. Paul Menard

            Right along with Lake Speed’s win at Darlington in 1988, Menard’s 2011 Brickyard 400 victory ranks as one of the flukiest NASCAR results of all time.

Road Course Ringers (sadly, sans Ambrose and Montoya)

24. Sam Hornish

            For some reason Hornish is mentioned as a dark horse to win at a road course even though all of his Indy Car and Nationwide wins were on ovals.

           

23. A.J. Allmendinger

            Allmendinger delivered the moment of the year last year with his thrilling duel with Marcos Ambrose at Watkins Glen. He’s a good bet to notch another win at Sonoma or the Glen to make a second straight Chase.

Might Win a Race, Might Not

22. Tony Stewart

            We’re sticking a fork in the competitive NASCAR career of Tony Stewart.

21. Trevor Bayne

            It’s hard to believe Bayne won the Daytona 500, and even harder to believe that it took him four years to land a full-time Sprint Cup ride.

20. Kurt Busch

            If there were such an award for “Most Bizarre Legal Case”, crazy Kurt Busch against his physco ex-girlfriend would easily take top honors in 2015. 

19. Clint Bowyer

            No Credentials isn’t buying stock in MWR yet.

18. Kyle Busch

            We had Busch ranked second (mostly due to the changes in the Sprint Cup cars that make them more similar to Nationwide/Xfinity) before his brutal crash Saturday afternoon. There isn’t a great track record of success for guys that missed significant time due to injury, so this could be a lost year for him.

17. Austin Dillon

            Dillon was pretty vanilla in his rookie year, but we expect a slight rise to relevance at the super speedways in Dillon’s sophomore campaign.

16. Aric Almirola

            At times, Almirola was the most consistent Ford driver not employed by Roger Penske in 2014. We expect him to notch his first non-rain shortened victory this year.

15. Greg Biffle

            Biffle is the de facto leader of Roush Fenway Racing, which would be cool if Roush wasn’t a sinking ship.

14. Ryan Newman

            Newman nearly broke The Chase forever with his near championship winning run at Homestead last year. We don’t anticipate another remarkable run of consistency again, but we do predict Newman to return to victory lane.

13. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

            Stenhouse was abysmal last year, but he stands to gain from the Cup cars driving like the cars he piloted to two straight Nationwide titles in 2011 and 2012.

Inconsistent Wildcards

12. Jamie McMurray

            With all the big races McMurray was won over the years, it’s crazy that he has never made The Chase. That changes in 2015.

11. Kasey Kahne

            Hendrick Motorsports least inspiring driver should thank his lucky stars Jeff Gordon is retiring after this season, otherwise Chase Elliott would’ve been driving the five car next year instead.

10. Kyle Larson

            The most logical bet for a break through season, we’d be shocked if Larson didn’t win at least two races this year.

9. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

            Dale Jr.’s early returns look good after a strong showing in his Duel race Thursday night, but the real test will come when he needs to communicate adjustments to his new crew chief at Atlanta next week.

8. Denny Hamlin

            No one has Danica’s back more than Denny Hamlin.

Championship Contenders

7. Matt Kenseth

            Kenseth should at least return to victory lane, but we’re not forecasting a dominant season.

6. Jeff Gordon

            The Gordon retirement tour will be fun, but swan songs rarely if ever end with titles in any sport.

5. Kevin Harvick

            Harvick has a great chance of at least making the Final Four at Homestead with how good he is at Phoenix. That gives him a punchers chance at earning back-to-back titles.

4. Carl Edwards

            After doubting the high profile moves by Matt Kenseth and Kevin Harvick the last two years, we’re all in on Edwards in his debut season with Joe Gibbs Racing.

3. Jimmie Johnson

            2015 might be the last time we see Johnson paired with Crew Chief Chad Knaus if they don’t recapture some of their past magic.

The Favorites

2. Brad Keselowski

1. Joey Logano

            Penske Motorsports was the only team in the same league as Hendrick Motorsports last year, and both drivers should adjust to the rule changes based on their success in the Nationwide series. We’re forecasting that both will be in the Final Four, and one will end up hoisting the Sprint Cup.

NASCAR Pre-Chase Driver Ranks

            Every year before The Chase we rank who we feel has the most likely shot at hoisting the Sprint Cup. Keep in mind that this list doesn’t represent how we feel the final points will shake out, or who will be included in the Final 4 at Homestead. The new format makes it even harder to predict, as the winner take all finale will be one of the most ridiculous races in NASCAR history, but we’ve reviewed each round of the Chase, and the tracks that represent each driver’s best chances of advancing. Without further ado, our countdown to our pick to win the championship.

Complete and Utter Afterthoughts

16. A.J. Allmendinger

15. Aric Almirola

            Both earned well-deserved first career victories this year (with Allmendinger’s drive at Watkins Glen being the most dramatic finish of the season so far), but they have virtually no chance at winning the title. Almirola did run well at both Loudon and Dover earlier in the season (which are both in the first playoff segment), so there is the minute possibility he could sneak into the round of 12.

Happy to Be Here

14. Greg Biffle

13. Carl Edwards

            The demise of Roush-Fenway Racing has been well documented, and there’s no reason to expect a sudden revival during The Chase. Edwards is a lame duck driver, and Biffle has less Top-5s this season than Paul Menard. 

12. Ryan Newman

            Newman’s season has been just as uninspiring as Biffle’s, but at least he has been more competitive during the summer months. He does have three career wins at Loudon and Dover, which gives him a reasonable chance of making it to the round of 12. 

11. Kasey Kahne

            The greatest enigma of the entire NASCAR season has been Kahne’s inability to be consistently competitive this season. He needed a miraculous run at Atlanta just to be included in The Chase. If he can survive the first segment, Charlotte represents his best chance at cracking the Elite 8.

10. Denny Hamlin

            Hamlin has been more competent than you would think this season, as even with missing a race he would’ve made the playoffs without his win at Talladega. One can’t help but think he’s third on the Gibbs totem pole though.

Unpopular Dark Horses

9. Kyle Busch

8. Kurt Busch

            The Busch boys have only one win, both have occasionally had speed, and both have had an abundance of mechanical issues and crashes. We rank Kurt ahead of Kyle simply because the Hendrick powered Chevrolets have been stronger than the Gibbs Toyotas. 

Fatally Flawed

7. Matt Kenseth

            Kenseth is an honoree for hardest working driver of the year, as he’s tied for second in top-10s and tied for third in top-5s while piloting an underpowered Toyota Camry all year. Martinsville is the only track in the playoffs he has never won at, so it wouldn’t be a total shock to see him go on a run. Ultimately though, the lack of top end horsepower will do him in.

6. Kevin Harvick

            Happy Harvick has had fast cars all season long, but is saddled with the worst pit crew of any driver in the playoffs. His first year of the win was at Phoenix, so if he can repeat that feat he’ll be ticketed for the Final 4 at Homestead.

5. Jimmie Johnson

            With the exception of a stretch where he won three out of four just before the official start of summer, Six-Time has been riddled with tire issues all season. That could be the result of some experimenting by evil warlord crew chief Chad Knaus, but it just doesn’t feel like a championship season for Jimmie Johnson.

Stout Contenders

4. Joey Logano

            We’ve said it at least twice earlier this year, but it’s worth repeating…there really isn’t enough praise for a kid that’s only 24 years old being a legitimate championship contender. Logano has led laps in 18 of the 26 events this season, and has had speed everywhere. Other than his teammate, no one has more momentum than him going into the playoffs with Top-10 finishes in six of his last seven races.

3. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

            Junior’s performance this year has been a huge shot in the arm for the sport, and it’s safe to assume that he should be a force throughout the playoffs. He’s tied for the most Top-5s with Brad Keselowski, and there isn’t a track on the schedule that he shouldn’t have speed at. The only reason we don’t have him in the top tier is the fact that we haven’t seen him post a competitive Chase showing since the first one in 2004.

The Favorites

2. Brad Keselowski

            Keselowski has been a little boom or bust this season, but some of that can be attributed to risk taking after securing a Chase spot early in the season. Penske Racing has had the most consistent qualifying program on a weekly basis, giving Keselowski premium track position right from the get go. The only reason we have some reservations about Keselowski winning is the third slate of elimination races. He’ll be fast at Texas, but Phoenix and Martinsville aren’t his strongest tracks on the circuit. 

1. Jeff Gordon

            Gordon has driven like a man possessed this year, posting more Top-10s than any other driver, and for the first time in many years looking like a guy hungry to win a title. He’s had success at every track in The Chase, and most importantly, has a win at Homestead under his belt. There’s a chance that he’ll be the only driver in the Final 4 that can say that. We’re signing off on Gordon as our predicted winner of the 2014 Sprint Cup.

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Weekend (5/2-5/4)

10. Jon Lester Racks Up 15 Ks
            It was an extremely gaudy number of strikeouts for Lester, who isn’t known for a high strikeout rate. He hasn’t pitched this well in a game since his no-hitter all the way back in 2008.

9. Denny Hamlin Earns First Win of 2014 at Talladega

            Denny can thank his lucky stars that NASCAR didn’t throw a caution flag before he took the white, as there was no way he would’ve held the lead on the backstretch during the final lap.

8. Pacers Survive 3-Point Chucking Hawks
            Atlanta set NBA records for most threes in a series and a single playoff game Saturday, but that wasn’t enough to overcome a Pacers squad that sort of look like it figured things out. We’ll find out when they face John Wall and the Wizards tonight.

7. Thunder Outrun Z-Bo-Less Grizzlies

            Marc Gasol wasn’t able to clog up the paint without his fellow star big man, and Oklahoma City took full advantage.

6. California Chrome Dominates Kentucky Derby

            California Chrome couldn’t have asked for a better set of circumstances for the Derby, but that’s because he’s a horse and he can’t ask questions.

5. Brooklyn Survives Late Raptors Rally, Advances to Second Round Date With Miami

            We were pulling for the Raptors, but ultimately Brooklyn will deliver the greater test for Miami than the young Toronto club would have. The Nets are 4-0 against the Heat this season.

4. Marion Gaborik Ties Game Late, Then Delivers Kings Overtime Victory Over Ducks

            When he’s engaged, there are few snipers more effective than Gaborik in THE NATIONAL HOCKEY LEAGUE. Saturday night, Gaborik was engaged.
         
3. Bruins Rack Up Four Third Period Goals, Even Series With Montreal
            It’s hard to remember another hockey team that has as much of a flair for the dramatic as the Bruins have had over the past five years or so. Saturday was another memorable comeback, which ensures they wouldn’t travel to Montreal in a 0-2 hole.
         
2. Clippers Outlast Warriors in Game 7 Shootout
            Doc Rivers looked more excited Saturday night than he was when the Celtics won the title six years ago. I guess with all his team has dealt with over the past week, it was warranted.

1. Damian Lillard Delivers the Dagger, Eliminates Houston

            0.9 seconds was all Lillard needed to send the Rockets home for the summer. Blazers-Rockets may not have lasted the full seven games, but from start to finish it was the most entertaining series of the first round.

2014 NASCAR Preview

            Normally we write about 10,000 words in our NASCAR preview, but you can thank a ridiculous week of winter weather for shrinking this piece down to 1,100. We rank the drivers in order of the best odds we give each of winning the Sprint Cup.

30. Trevor Bayne, #21 Motorcraft Ford, Wood Brothers

            It’s hard to believe that Trevor Bayne won the Daytona 500 three years ago, and still hasn’t managed to secure a full-time Cup ride.

29. Parker Kligerman, #30 Lending Tree Toyota, Swan Racing

            Kligerman is the rare combination of talented rookie and upstart team. Swan Racing has investors dumping money into it left and right, so it would be fun to see the 23-year old have some success this season.

28. David Ragan, #34 MHP Ford, Front Row Motorsports

            If this year’s “WIN OR GO HOME BITCH” playoff format were in place in 2013, Ragan would’ve been racing for the title when The Chase started. That’s a reason why this format won’t work.

27. Danica Patrick, #10 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing

            After a listless first full season in Sprint Cup, it’s hard to forecast Patrick having success anywhere other than Daytona or Talladega.

26. A.J. Allmendinger, #47 Kroger Toyota, JTG Daugherty Racing

            It hasn’t taken nearly as long as most experts expected for Allmendinger to secure a full-time Sprint Cup ride. The 47 doesn’t usually have a lot of speed, but he’ll be pesky at Sonoma and Watkins Glen.

25. Paul Menard, #27 Menard’s Chevrolet, Richard Childress Racing

            Menard shockingly has competition for the title of “most notable trust fund child in Sprint Cup” from new teammate Austin Dillon.

24. Martin Truex Jr., #78 Furniture Row Chevrolet, Furniture Row Racing

            When everyone watches Truex struggle in the #78, we’ll get a true appreciation for how awesome Kurt Busch’s 2013 campaign really was.

23. Aric Almirola, #43 Smithfield Foods Ford, Richard Petty Motorsports

            I can’t name one notable thing Almirola has ever done since getting the keys to the #43.

22. Austin Dillon, #3 Dow Chemicals/Cheerios Chevrolet, Richard Childress Racing

            Dillon has talent, but just like Ricky Stenhouse Jr. last year, he will have growing pains. Remember that he didn’t even win a race last year in Nationwide despite winning the championship.

21. Jamie McMurray, #1 Bass Pro Shops/McDonalds Chevrolet, Ganassi Racing

            There isn’t anything my wife enjoys more during a NASCAR event than the sight of Jamie McMurray bawling in victory lane.

20. Brian Vickers, #55 Aaron’s Toyota, Michael Waltrip Racing

            Sort of like when an effective NBA reserve gets bumped up to starters minutes, we think Vickers will suffer a drop in “per-race” production.

19. Marcos Ambrose, #9 Stanley Ford, Richard Petty Motorsports

            The new playoff format gives Marcos Ambrose, who’s the most dominant road course racer of the last decade, a 50% chance of making The Chase.

18. Kyle Larson, #42 Target Chevrolet, Ganassi Racing

            Not since Kyle Busch has Sprint Cup had a rookie with as much raw talent as Kyle Larson. We wouldn’t be surprised at all if he stole a win at one of the short tracks.

17. Ryan Newman, #31 Caterpillar Chevrolet, Richard Childress Racing

            We’re happy Newman landed a full-time ride after getting the boot from Stewart-Haas Racing, but the #31 group has been struggling for years now.

16. Ricky Stenhouse Jr., #17 Best Buy/Zest Ford, Roush-Fenway Racing

            Mr. Patrick’s second half of 2013 gives plenty of reasons to be optimistic about his sophomore campaign.

15. Joey Logano, #22 Shell-Pennzoil Ford, Penske Racing

            His early season feud with Denny Hamlin last year (which ended up with Logano pulling a Bane and breaking Hamlin’s back in California) was one of the top five events of the 2013 season. It would do Logano some good to cut the drama, but we don’t think he’s at that point in his career yet.

14. Greg Biffle, #16 3M Ford, Roush-Fenway Racing

            The end of relevance for The Biff is coming.

13. Tony Stewart, #14 Mobil 1 Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing
            If anyone is going to come back from a busted leg and compete for wins it’s Tony Stewart, but we’re expecting some bumps in the road as he shakes the rust off.

12. Dale Earnhardt Jr., #88 National Guard Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            Evidently, if the new points format were in place last year, Dale Earnhardt Jr. would’ve won the 2013 title. Which is ironic, because he didn’t win a race.

11. Denny Hamlin, #11 Fed-Ex Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing

            I can honestly say I have no idea where to rank Hamlin. I had him at 15 before he won the race formerly known as the Bud Shootout and his qualifying race.

10. Kasey Kahne, #5 Farmers Insurance Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            Kahne jumps to the top of my list for a guy that benefits from a championship format mostly based on wins, as he’s never had the race to race consistency for point racing.

9. Kurt Busch, #41 Haas Automation Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing

            It took two years in NASCAR purgatory, but Kurt Busch is finally back with an elite team.

8. Kevin Harvick, #4 Budweiser Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing

            The number and team are different, but we don’t expect a dramatic change in production from Harvick in his first year with Stewart-Haas.

7. Jeff Gordon, #24 Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            We think Gordon has one more serious championship run in him. A win based championship structure works in his favor.

6. Clint Bowyer, #15 5-Hour Energy Toyota, Michael Waltrip Racing

            The face of MWR’s manipulation of the regular season finale last year at Richmond, we actually expect Bowyer to contend for more wins now that his team has consolidated to two cars.

5. Brad Keselowski, #2 Miller Lite Ford, Penske Racing

            Sprint Cup’s 2012 champ had a miserable, snake bit regular season during his title defense, but a strong showing during the final ten races gives many reasons to believe he can return to a championship caliber level.

4. Matt Kenseth, #20 Home Depot Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing

            There’s typically a “runner-up hangover” for the driver that finishes second in the points the previous season, but the #20 car looks like it won’t skip a beat after winning a Duel race Thursday night.

3. Kyle Busch, #18 M&Ms Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing

            After Kasey Kahne, here’s our second driver the new format favors the most. He’s plenty capable of qualifying for each round of the playoffs with a win.

2. Carl Edwards, #99 Fastenal Ford, Roush-Fenway Racing

            No driver is better at Homestead than Carl Edwards, which gives him a decided advantage if he is in title contention going into the season finale.

1. Jimmie Johnson, #48 Lowe’s Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            It would be a severe case of tomfoolery to rank any other driver first as Johnson begins his quest for a record tying seventh championship.

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Weekend (2/14-2/16)

10. U.S. Secretary of Education Can Ball
            Arne Duncan might not have solved juvenile delinquency yet, but he’s a dominant force in the world of celebrity basketball.

9. Marco Belinelli Needs Extra Round to Win 3-Point Contest

            We’re pretty sure he’s the first champion of this event that ever put up two air balls during the first round.

8. Andre Drummond Dominates NBA Rising Stars Game

            Of all the preliminary events leading up to the All-Star Game, the Friday game of the leagues best rookies and sophomores is slowly working its way to the top of the list. Dion Waiters (who some team should be trying to acquire for a low-ball offer from the Cavaliers) and Tim Hardaway Jr. put on an impressive 3-point display in the second half, and Drummond put up a 30-25 line.

7. Austin Dillon Puts the #3 On the Pole for Daytona 500
            Here’s what I wrote last year after Danica Patrick won the pole for the 2013 Daytona 500…

NASCAR has a long list of “storybook” outcomes, so here’s where Danica’s pole winning run ranks.

1. Richard Petty claiming his 200^th and final career win with Ronald Reagan in attendance at the 1984 Firecracker 400 (Petty was, and still is, a diehard Republican, so this victory turned into a glorified campaign stop for Reagan while he was running for his second term in office).

2. Dale Earnhardt Jr. winning the Pepsi 400 just five months after his father died in a last-lap crash in the 500 (as someone who watched the whole race live, I don’t care about the conspiracy theory. That was the most memorable NASCAR victory by anyone of the entire decade).
3. Danica Patrick winning the pole for this year’s Daytona 500.

        You might think I’d come down negatively on this, but you’d be mistaken. Qualifying at Daytona is in the discussion of most boring things you could ever watch on television. Furthermore, qualifying means very little at a restrictor plate track where cars zoom from the back to the front in less than a handful of laps. If NASCAR did anything to “encourage” a pole-winning run by Patrick, I’d call that some damn good marketing.

            I stand by those comments, and we’ll rank Dillon’s pole winning effort somewhere in the top 10.

6. #2 Arizona Falls in Double Overtime

            Arizona doesn’t have that championship look to it anymore without forward Brandon Ashley.

5. John Wall Wins (I Guess?) 2014 Slam Dunk Contest

            It’s a shame that the confusion over the format marred what was one of the most explosive dunks in years by Wall.

4. Denny Hamlin Wins Event Formerly Known as The Bud Shootout

            Hamlin’s impressive comeback run after an injury-marred and pain filled 2013 continues.
        
3. Canada Survives Against Finland
            Finland successfully slowed the game down against the superior Canadian squad, but Drew Doughty notched his second goal of the game in overtime to give Canada a win in Group B.
      
2. Kyrie Irving Leads Eastern Conference Comeback in NBA All-Star Game
            I don’t know what was more entertaining, the 200 combined dunks and 3-point attempts, or Marv Albert and Steve Kerr complaining about the lack of defensive effort.

1. T.J. Oshie and Jonathan Quick Deliver Dramatic Shootout Win Over Russia

            Who knew that T.J. Oshie was the grandmaster of the shootout? Taking advantage of a weird international rule that lets a team use the same shooter after the first three attempts, Oshie ended up going 4-6 to defeat the more talented Russian forwards. There’s a good chance Oshie could strike again as the Olympic Tournament enters elimination play.

2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup Preview

EDITORS NOTE: The entire following preview was written before the horrific last lap crash in today’s Nationwide. At the time of this posting, one fan is in critical condition with significant brain trauma and is in surgery. Our thoughts and prayers go out to all the fans and families impacted by Saturday’s unfortunate accident.

35. David Stremme, #30 Toyota, Swan Racing

            The new owner of Swan Racing says he wants to “compete for victories”, and vows not to be a start and park. David Stremme is the wrong driver to accomplish that goal with.

34. Dave Blaney, #36 Accell Construction Chevrolet, Tommy Baldwin Racing

            Other than the jet dryer explosion, the most incredible development from last year’s Daytona 500 was Dave Blaney trending on Twitter.

33. David Gilliland, #38 Mod Space Ford, Front Row Motorsports

32. Casey Mears, #13 Geico Toyota, Germain Racing
            Here are a couple of dudes that incredibly, are still employed as Sprint Cup drivers.

31. Bobby Labonte, #47 Kroger Toyota, JTG Daugherty Racing

            Click the above link if you don’t believe me when I say Bobby Labonte was the 2000 Winston Cup champion.

30. David Ragan, #34, MHP Ford, Front Row Motorsports

            Poor David Ragan is still stuck in NASCAR purgatory at Front Row Motorsports.

29. Trevor Bayne, #21 Motorcraft Ford, Wood Brothers

            This will be Bayne’s last part-time season driving the legendary #21 before driving for Jack Roush in Sprint Cup next year.

28. Regan Smith, #51 Tag Heuer Chevrolet, Phoenix Racing

27. A.J. Allmendinger #51 Tag Heuer Chevrolet, Phoenix Racing
            We’ll have a greater appreciation for Kurt Busch after we see what this duo does in James Finch’s cars.

26. Danica Patrick, #10 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing

            She’ll compete at restrictor plate tracks but it’s still a steep learning curve everywhere else.

25. Paul Menard, #27 Menard’s Chevrolet, Richard Childress Racing

            Remember when Paul Menard stole the Brickyard 400 from Jeff Gordon a couple of years back? Me neither.

24. Mark Martin/Brian Vickers/Michael Waltrip, #55 Aaron’s Dream Machine Toyota, Michael Waltrip Racing

            There has never been a better performing car that was shared by multiple drivers in the past 30 years than the #55 Toyota. If Martin were driving it full-time, he’d be ranked in the top-12.

23. Jeff Burton, #31 Caterpillar Chevrolet, Richard Childress Racing

            Kevin Harvick’s departure after the season is the only reason Burton has a chance of keeping his ride for 2014.

22. Jamie McMurray, #1 McDonalds Chevrolet, Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing

            That year where McMurray won a few times and was crying all over the place was pretty fun.

21. Aric Almirola, #43 Smithfield Foods Ford, Richard Petty Motorsports

            Almirola did just enough last year to earn a second go around at RPM, but it will likely take a win for him to secure employment for 2014.

20. Kurt Busch, #78 Furniture Row Chevrolet, Furniture Row Racing

            I don’t know what to make of Kurt Busch this year, but three straight top-10s to close out 2012 is an encouraging sign for the 2004 Nextel Cup champion. His best chance to sneak into The Chase will be stealing a couple of wins between the two road courses or the short tracks.

19. Ryan Newman, #39 Quicken Loans Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing

           It feels like the end of the line for Newman, as he was only able to lock up a one-year deal with Stewart-Haas. I expect him to enter the Bobby Labonte phase of his career next season.

18. Marcos Ambrose, #9 Stanley Ford, Richard Petty Motorsports

            Both of Ambrose’s career victories have been the most exciting finishes of the ‘10s so far. He needs to add a win at Sonoma to make the playoffs.
      
17. Joey Logano, #22 Pennzoil Ford, Penske Racing
            I like Logano’s move to Penske for the long-term, but I see an adjustment period between joining a new team and adapting to the Gen-6 car.

16. Juan Pablo Montoya, #42 Target Chevrolet, Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing

            Montoya put on a show when he gained ten spots to finish third in Thursday’s first Dual. It was almost a tenth as entertaining as his crash into the jet dryer last year.

15. Martin Truex Jr., #56 Napa Toyota, Michael Waltrip Racing

            Truex was the biggest surprise of the 2012 season before his team flamed out in The Chase. No Credentials forecasts a significant regression, as his lack of win potential limits his chances of earning a wildcard spot.

14. Ricky Stenhouse Jr., #17 Best Buy Ford, Roush-Fenway Racing

            Mr. Danica Patrick is the best Sprint Cup rookie the series has seen since Denny Hamlin. It won’t likely result in a Chase bid, but I’d be surprised if Stenhouse doesn’t pull into victory lane this year.

13. Kevin Harvick, #29 Budweiser Chevrolet, Richard Childress Racing

            I had Harvick pegged at 17 before he went 2-2 in his first two races of Speedweeks. Nevertheless, lame ducks do not win championships.

12. Greg Biffle, #16 3M Ford, Roush-Fenway Racing

            Biffle had his best year since 2005, but he struggles too much at short tracks to be considered a serious championship threat.

11. Tony Stewart, #14 Mobil 1 Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing

            Ironically enough, I had Stewart ranked at 11 in my 2011 Chase Preview column. We all know how that turned out.

10. Matt Kenseth, #20 The Home Depot Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing

            Kenseth will do well in his first season, but I don’t believe he will become the lead driver at Gibbs over Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin. Regardless, it’s really bizarre to see the former champion in anything other than the #17.

9. Dale Earnhardt Jr., #88 National Guard Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            I bet you didn’t know that Junior posted the best average finish of his career in 2012. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that the switch to the new cars will benefit him more than any other driver.

8. Clint Bowyer, #15 5-Hour Energy Toyota, Michael Waltrip Racing

            Bowyer enjoyed remarkable success in his first season at MWR, so expect a slight return to Earth in 2013.

7. Carl Edwards, #99 Fastenal/Subway/UPS/Aflac/Kellogg’s Ford, Roush-Fenway Racing

            Edwards had a disastrous 2012, but history is on his side (sort of). Edwards was a popular pick to win the championship in 2006, but went winless and ended up 12^th in points. He rebounded to win three races in 2007. In 2009, Edwards was again a title favorite after collecting a series high nine victories. Edwards again went winless, but rebounded to win twice and finish fourth in the points in 2010. In other words, the last two times Carl was coming off a shitty year, he rebounded. Inheriting the bulk of Matt Kenseth’s former crew will only help his cause.

6. Jimmie Johnson, #48 Lowe’s Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            Johnson’s days of winning championships are done. You heard it here first.

5. Jeff Gordon, #24 Dupont Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            Gordon never got a hold of the Car of Tomorrow, so following Dale Jr., he’s the second driver who should benefit the most from the car switch. If only he could get Ray Evernham back on his pit box.

4. Denny Hamlin, #11 Fed-Ex Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing

            Hamlin would’ve had a puncher’s chance at last season’s championship if not for a disastrous day at Martinsville, which historically, is his best track. He stands to benefit the most from the addition of Matt Kenseth to Joe Gibbs Racing.

3. Brad Keselowski, #2 Miller Lite Ford, Penske Racing

            Bad Brad is just what NASCAR needs. A young, brash young champion who is relatively relatable to the common man. Penske’s switch to Ford was made easier thanks to it coinciding with the switch to the Gen-6 cars.

2. Kyle Busch, #18 M&Ms Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing

            Entering his late-20s, Kyle Busch is just entering his prime (which is hard to believe, because he’s been driving in Sprint Cup for eight years). It’s a matter of time before he puts it all together for a championship-winning season.

1. Kasey Kahne, #5 Farmers Insurance Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            Kahne’s first season with Hendrick couldn’t have started any worse, but he still rallied to a fourth place finish in points. With a year under his belt, look for Kahne to lead the Hendrick charge and capture his first career Sprint Cup title.

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Weekend (9/21-9/23)

10. Jon Jones Survives An Early Armbar, Submits Vitor Belfort
            To the dismay of Dana White and millions of disgruntled MMA fans everywhere, a dislocated elbow wasn’t enough to hold down Jon Jones.

9. Denny Hamlin Dominates in New Hampshire

            A solid bounce-back by No Credentials preseason championship pick. Even despite his crew trying to hijack his qualifying effort, Hamlin methodically picked his way through the field from his 32^nd starting spot. He’ll be one of the favorites next week when the circuit moves on to Dover.

8. Bears Win 23-6

            This game wasn’t really all that awesome, but I did pick Chicago in the Sportsbook 100K Survivor Pool.

7. Notre Dame Shuts Down Michigan

            It’s time to call your crazy Catholic uncle who gave up on college football 12 years ago…Notre Dame is back.

6. Falcons, Texans, and Cardinals Last Undefeated Teams Left in NFL

            Who had that trio pegged as the last teams to lose in the league? All three look legit after impressive wins Sunday.

5. Minnesota Vikings Shock 49ers
            I’ll be the first to dub Sunday’s shocking result in the Metrodome “The Christian Ponder Game”.

4. Replacement Refs Make Complete Mess of Lions-Titans Game

            I’d knock the replacements more, but this game did turn out to be the most entertaining one of the week, so maybe they deserve some of the credit. Here’s the list of wacky things that happened.

-         A reenactment of the famous “Music City Miracle” occurred, resulting in a 65-yard punt return for the Titans.

-         Jake Locker completed touchdowns of both 61 and 71 yards.

-         Lions runningback Mikel Leshoure ran for 100 yards, which I think is the first time a Lions runningback broke the century mark since Barry Sanders in 1998.

-         Tennessee was up 20-9. Detroit was then up 27-20. Tennessee was then up 41-27. Naturally, the game went to overtime.

-         The game went to overtime after Detroit scored two touchdowns in 18 seconds, with the second being of the Hail-Mary variety.

             I don’t think the writers of “Playmakers” could of pumped more crazy shit into one script than what happened in this game.

3. Sean Payton Does Matter, Saints Are 0-3
            As soon as his suspension is over, Sean Payton better be asking for a raise.

2. Ravens Win Wild, 31-30 Game Over New England
1. Torrey Smith Honors His Brother
            Let’s forget for a moment that the refs put on one of the most uneven displays of officiating in NFL history.. Let’s also forget that Bill Belichick grabbed an official, and then his head looked like it was going to explode during his post-game press conference. Let’s instead focus on Torrey Smith, who’s brother passed away in a motorcycle accident just 19 hours before kickoff. Playing on an hour of broken sleep, Smith caught six passes for 127 yards and two critical touchdowns. His first fired up the Ravens after the Patriots stormed out to a 13-0 lead. It was hard not to get goose bumps as he pointed to the sky. It’s usually overkill to say that any professional athlete’s performance was inspiring, but Torrey Smith’s accomplishments Sunday night fit that description

2012 NASCAR Chase For The Cup Rankings

            The title of this post is pretty self-explanatory. In reverse order, here is our pre-Chase ranking of the 12-man field.

Fortunate To Be Here

12. Kevin Harvick, #29 Budweiser Chevrolet, Richard Childress Racing

            Childress cars just haven’t had the speed this season (some say that has to do with the car owner focusing on the careers of his grandsons). He’s been finishing consistently in the top-10 or 15, but that won’t get it done in The Chase.

Need To See It Before I Believe It

11. Martin Truex Jr., #56 Napa Toyota, Michael Waltrip Racing

            Truex made his first Chase since 2007 when he was driving for DEI. He’s been impressive, and has a great chance of winning at Chicago the opening weekend, but I don’t see him stringing together a championship winning Chase. If he’s back next year with a couple of wins when The Chase starts, I’ll think about it.

10. Dale Earnhardt Jr., #88 Amp Energy/National Guard Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            Dale Jr. has been much more impressive this season, racking up a win at Michigan and having cars capable of winning on multiple occasions. A fast start is vital for him, as he typically has a miserable performance in the opening race of The Chase. If he rips off a top-5 Sunday, this ranking will look silly.

(EDITORS NOTE: Before any members of “Junior Nation” send me nasty messages on Twitter, please note that I ranked Tony Stewart tenth before last year’s Chase. You all know what happened next) 

Legitimate Title Contenders

9. Brad Keselowski, #2 Miller Lite Dodge, Penske Racing

            One has to think that Dodge’s impending departure from NASCAR will have an impact eventually. Expect a fade from the blue deuce.

8. Clint Bowyer, #15 5-Hour Energy Toyota, Michael Waltrip Racing

            Bowyer has exceeded No Credentials’ expectations this season, leading the stunning renaissance at Michael Waltrip Racing. He’s performed well at most of The Chase venues, and based on Sportsbook’s odds, represents the best long shot pick to win the title (he’s 20 to 1). 

7. Matt Kenseth, #17 Best Buy Ford, Roush-Fenway Racing

            If only Kenseth wasn’t a lame duck driver. Hard to believe that he won’t play second fiddle to Greg Biffle in the Roush pecking order.

6. Tony Stewart, #14 Office Depot/Mobil 1 Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing

            Smoke peaked back in March, and with the exception of a summer win at Daytona, hasn’t been as impressive since. Stewart isn’t as bad off as he was last year (loyal leaders will recall that I ranked him tenth going in to last year’s Chase. Oops), so you can’t rule out the possibility of him going on a 2011-like tear.

5. Jeff Gordon, #24 Dupont Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

 

 

            Do yourself a favor and play the following video. Fast-forward to about the 9:20 mark and then watch the move Jeff Gordon pulled on Rusty Wallace.

            For the first time in 13 years, Jeff Gordon drove that hard when he muscled his way through the field at Richmond last Saturday night. We’ll see if that carries over into a Chase winning run the next ten weeks.

4. Kasey Kahne, #5 Farmers Insurance/Quaker State Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            After a disastrous start to the season, Kahne has been one of the steadiest drivers on the circuit since May. He’ll have speed at every Chase track. It’s just a matter of staying out of trouble.

3. Denny Hamlin, #11 Fed-Ex Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing

            This year’s top seed (and No Credentials preseason championship pick), Hamlin appears to be peaking at the perfect time. Being the only hope for a Gibbs championship will only boost Hamlin’s title chances.

2. Greg Biffle, #16 3M Ford, Roush-Fenway Racing

            The regular season point’s leader, Biffle has had the kind of consistency that is needed to win a championship all year long. Even better for him, he is likely Roush’s top dog in the fight (with Cousin Carl missing the Chase, and Kenseth being a lame duck). If he survives Loudon and Martinsville with solid top-15 finishes, he’ll be a serious title threat when the green flag drops at Homestead in November.

1. Jimmie Johnson, #48 Lowe’s Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            Johnson has more Top-5s and Top-10s than anyone. By my count, he could’ve won five other races if it weren’t for a pit road or on-track mishap that derailed him. He’s been fast everywhere. It’s going to take a super human effort to keep Johnson from winning his sixth championship.

Mid-Season NASCAR Power Rankings

Don’t Ask Him to Pee in a Cup

35. A.J. Allmendinger

            A.J. literally pissed his chances of a legitimate Sprint Cup career away, barring a miraculous B-sample test result.

Completely, Utterly, Irrelevant

34. David Stremme

33. Dave Blaney
32. David Reutimann
31. Landon Cassill
30. Travis Kvapil
29. David Gilliland
28. Casey Mears
            This group has accomplished only two noteworthy things this season. Dave Blaney was the leader of the Daytona 500 when Juan Pablo Montoya took out the jet dryer (which resulted in Blaney being a trending topic on Twitter, which is reason #112 the Mayans might be on to something). David Reutimann drove his decrepit racecar around one lap too long at Martinsville, stopped on the front straightaway, and fucked up a classic duel between Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon. Other than that, nothing to see here.

Incredibly, These Guys Won a Race Last Year

27. David Ragan

            It’s really hard to look at David Ragan and not feel bad for the guy. Going from Roush Fenway to Front Row Motorsports is like going from Hawaii to North Korea.

26. Regan Smith

            Sadly, the fortunes of Smith have taken a turn for the worse in 2012. His average finish is down 3 spots, and he’s only finished on the lead lap 1/6^th of the races (he accomplished that just over half the time last season). Someone needs to pump some R&D dollars into Furniture Row Racing.

Modern Day 1990’s Version of Darrell Waltrip

25. Bobby Labonte

            Sometime in the late-90s, a sportswriter asked Darrell Waltrip why he was still hanging around, ruining his reputation and making everyone forget that he was once a championship-winning driver. His reply? “Can’t quit, money’s too good.” I’m guessing Bobby Labonte would have a similar answer to that question.

Keeping the Seat Warm for Somebody

24. Aric Almirola

            Joey Logano. Ryan Newman. Kurt Busch. All three of those drivers are significantly more talented than Almirola, and all three could be available to drive the flagship car for Dodge next season. Almirola better be ready for a start and park gig next year.

Used to be Relevant (Emphasis on “Used”)

23. Jamie McMurray

            Two years ago, McMurray won both the Daytona 500 and the Brickyard 400. This season, his best finish is seventh, and he only has two other finishes inside the top-10. The equipment at Earnhardt-Ganassi isn’t cutting the mustard.

22. Jeff Burton

            No Credentials predicts that Jeff Burton will officially enter the D.W. 1990s version point of his career in 2013. He’s washed up, and it’s time for Richard Childress to find a new driver for the 31.

21. Juan Pablo Montoya

            I could wax poetic about the struggles of Montoya, but instead let’s post the video of the jet dryer he crashed into exploding.

2004-05 Jeremy Mayfield Impersonator, Minus the Crystal Meth Addiction

20. Paul Menard

            Jeremy Mayfield’s most noteworthy career accomplishment will be making the first two Chase’s by hammering out mediocre top-15 finishes week after week. Menard has been following a similar plan, but unfortunately the field is much deeper now.

Drives His Ass Off

19. Kurt Busch

            Kurt Busch has done quite a few noteworthy things in his year of purgatory. He gave his brother Kyle his first Nationwide win as an owner. Busch brought James Finch Racing to victory lane at Daytona in July (which even though it was Nationwide, was still a major David vs. Goliath moment in the world of auto racing). Most impressively, he wheeled a car with a broken suspension to a third place finish at Sonoma (which in case you forget, is one of two tracks that features right turns). Unfortunately, the following run-in with a reporter will severely hinder Busch’s chances of landing a top-flight ride in 2013.

Frisky at Certain Locations

18. Marcos Ambrose

            Ambrose has shown tremendous progress on ovals this season, but the egg he laid at Sonoma will prevent him sneaking in to The Chase.

17. Ryan Newman

            Newman is only nine points out of the second wild card heading into the Brickyard 400, but his unsettled future makes No Credentials feel like he has no chance of making it. Newman has no contract for next season with Stewart-Haas.

16. Joey Logano

            Logano appears to have done enough to keep a seat at Joe Gibbs Racing (the only reason Matt Kenseth’s deal with Gibbs hasn’t been announced is because they are still finalizing Logano’s sponsorship package), and the next two races will be his best chance at sneaking into a wildcard spot. He dominated the first Sprint Cup race at Pocono (which the series will return to the first Sunday in August), and success there usually translates to a good run at Indianapolis. If he sweeps both races, he’ll be in The Chase.

3-Headed Monster

15. Mark Martin/Brian Vickers/Michael Waltrip

            If you added up all of the points the drivers of the #55 have earned, they would currently be twelfth in points. We haven’t seen anything like this in Sprint Cup in years. 

Flop of the Year

14. Carl Edwards

            I had a feeling this season would play out like this for Cousin Carl, but didn’t have enough intestinal fortitude to rank him this low before the season. Edwards has only led one lap at a track other than Richmond this season. Maybe next year he can get Matt Kenseth’s personal to give him a boost.

Worse Luck Than the 1980 Soviet Union Hockey Team

13. Jeff Gordon

            Ending up on his roof in the Budweiser Shootout was only the beginning of a maddening season for Gordon. Unlike Carl Edwards, Gordon has led his fair share of laps, and has been in contention to win on multiple occasions. Crashes, equipment failure, and bad breaks have bit the former Boy Wonder like never before. Folks still believe in him, but his days of ripping off multiple wins in a short time span are about eight years behind him. The Brickyard 400 is a must win for him.

Will Probably Make the Chase, but Won’t be Factors

12. Martin Truex Jr.

            Truex looked like a sure bet to reach victory lane just over a month ago, but has tailed off since. Of the drivers currently in the top 10, he would appear to be the most likely to drop out.

11. Kevin Harvick

            Richard Childress Racing just hasn’t had the speed this season (see the performance of Jeff Burton and Paul Menard for proof). Harvick has done a brilliant job of getting the Budweiser Chevrolet safely into the top 10 in points, but that won’t be enough to bring home a championship. Fortunately, Harvick still has his way with words.

Will Make the Chase, and Then Choke Like He Does Every Year

10. Kyle Busch

            For all of Kyle Busch’s success, do you realize he has only won once during the NASCAR playoffs? He desperately needs a win to secure a spot in this year’s Chase.

Legitimate Championship Contenders

9. Clint Bowyer

            The lead dog for emerging MWR, who would of thought that Bowyer would actually be increasing his title chances by leaving Richard Childress? Bowyer is the best dark horse bet to win the championship.

8. Greg Biffle

            Biffle has had a fantastic bounce back season after a frustrating 2011. His struggles at three of the Chase venues (Loudon, Martinsville, and Phoenix) are why he’s ranked so low.

7. Matt Kenseth

            Kenseth is still leading the points, but No Credentials has a hard time believing that his lame duck status with Roush won’t begin to have an impact on the success of the 17 car.

6. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

            Junior’s resurgence this season has been huge for the sport, but similar to Kyle Busch, Junior has never had a great deal of success come playoff time. He won two races in the inaugural Chase back in 2004, but hasn’t reached victory lane since.

5. Denny Hamlin

            No Credentials pre-season pick to win hasn’t been too bad this season, but Gibbs just seems to be a hair off on the mile and a half ovals this season.

4. Brad Keselowski

            If the Chase started right now, Keselowski would be tied for first with Tony Stewart thanks to his series high three wins. He’ll be a monster next season when Penske makes the switch from Dodge to Ford.

3. Tony Stewart

            Stewart has been all or nothing this season, seemingly finishing in either the top-3 or in the twenties every week. His epic 2011 title run would suggest that perhaps Stewart has been experimenting a bit this season in an effort to secure more bonus points for the Chase. I wouldn’t be surprised if Stewart began ripping off top-5s week after week in the fall.

2. Kasey Kahne

            His luck in the beginning of the season was abysmal, but Kahne has roared to life since May. Kahne has the speed this year. It’s just a matter of him keeping the car in one piece. No Credentials feels safe suggesting that Kahne will win one of the next five championships.

The Favorite

1. Jimmie Johnson

            Johnson didn’t get off to a sterling start this year either (thank Elliott Sadler and his crooked crew chief, the Evil Dr. Chad Knaus for that), but quietly Johnson has been the most consistent driver since the clocks sprung ahead. The only chink in his armor would appear to be his shoddy pit crew, but we know that Rick Hendrick is willing to swap crews in the name of winning when it matters most (remember Hendrick made the call to switch Jeff Gordon’s pit crew with Johnson’s back in the final race of the 2010 season). It’s Johnson’s championship to lose.