2014 NASCAR Preview

            Normally we write about 10,000 words in our NASCAR preview, but you can thank a ridiculous week of winter weather for shrinking this piece down to 1,100. We rank the drivers in order of the best odds we give each of winning the Sprint Cup.

30. Trevor Bayne, #21 Motorcraft Ford, Wood Brothers

            It’s hard to believe that Trevor Bayne won the Daytona 500 three years ago, and still hasn’t managed to secure a full-time Cup ride.

29. Parker Kligerman, #30 Lending Tree Toyota, Swan Racing

            Kligerman is the rare combination of talented rookie and upstart team. Swan Racing has investors dumping money into it left and right, so it would be fun to see the 23-year old have some success this season.

28. David Ragan, #34 MHP Ford, Front Row Motorsports

            If this year’s “WIN OR GO HOME BITCH” playoff format were in place in 2013, Ragan would’ve been racing for the title when The Chase started. That’s a reason why this format won’t work.

27. Danica Patrick, #10 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing

            After a listless first full season in Sprint Cup, it’s hard to forecast Patrick having success anywhere other than Daytona or Talladega.

26. A.J. Allmendinger, #47 Kroger Toyota, JTG Daugherty Racing

            It hasn’t taken nearly as long as most experts expected for Allmendinger to secure a full-time Sprint Cup ride. The 47 doesn’t usually have a lot of speed, but he’ll be pesky at Sonoma and Watkins Glen.

25. Paul Menard, #27 Menard’s Chevrolet, Richard Childress Racing

            Menard shockingly has competition for the title of “most notable trust fund child in Sprint Cup” from new teammate Austin Dillon.

24. Martin Truex Jr., #78 Furniture Row Chevrolet, Furniture Row Racing

            When everyone watches Truex struggle in the #78, we’ll get a true appreciation for how awesome Kurt Busch’s 2013 campaign really was.

23. Aric Almirola, #43 Smithfield Foods Ford, Richard Petty Motorsports

            I can’t name one notable thing Almirola has ever done since getting the keys to the #43.

22. Austin Dillon, #3 Dow Chemicals/Cheerios Chevrolet, Richard Childress Racing

            Dillon has talent, but just like Ricky Stenhouse Jr. last year, he will have growing pains. Remember that he didn’t even win a race last year in Nationwide despite winning the championship.

21. Jamie McMurray, #1 Bass Pro Shops/McDonalds Chevrolet, Ganassi Racing

            There isn’t anything my wife enjoys more during a NASCAR event than the sight of Jamie McMurray bawling in victory lane.

20. Brian Vickers, #55 Aaron’s Toyota, Michael Waltrip Racing

            Sort of like when an effective NBA reserve gets bumped up to starters minutes, we think Vickers will suffer a drop in “per-race” production.

19. Marcos Ambrose, #9 Stanley Ford, Richard Petty Motorsports

            The new playoff format gives Marcos Ambrose, who’s the most dominant road course racer of the last decade, a 50% chance of making The Chase.

18. Kyle Larson, #42 Target Chevrolet, Ganassi Racing

            Not since Kyle Busch has Sprint Cup had a rookie with as much raw talent as Kyle Larson. We wouldn’t be surprised at all if he stole a win at one of the short tracks.

17. Ryan Newman, #31 Caterpillar Chevrolet, Richard Childress Racing

            We’re happy Newman landed a full-time ride after getting the boot from Stewart-Haas Racing, but the #31 group has been struggling for years now.

16. Ricky Stenhouse Jr., #17 Best Buy/Zest Ford, Roush-Fenway Racing

            Mr. Patrick’s second half of 2013 gives plenty of reasons to be optimistic about his sophomore campaign.

15. Joey Logano, #22 Shell-Pennzoil Ford, Penske Racing

            His early season feud with Denny Hamlin last year (which ended up with Logano pulling a Bane and breaking Hamlin’s back in California) was one of the top five events of the 2013 season. It would do Logano some good to cut the drama, but we don’t think he’s at that point in his career yet.

14. Greg Biffle, #16 3M Ford, Roush-Fenway Racing

            The end of relevance for The Biff is coming.

13. Tony Stewart, #14 Mobil 1 Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing
            If anyone is going to come back from a busted leg and compete for wins it’s Tony Stewart, but we’re expecting some bumps in the road as he shakes the rust off.

12. Dale Earnhardt Jr., #88 National Guard Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            Evidently, if the new points format were in place last year, Dale Earnhardt Jr. would’ve won the 2013 title. Which is ironic, because he didn’t win a race.

11. Denny Hamlin, #11 Fed-Ex Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing

            I can honestly say I have no idea where to rank Hamlin. I had him at 15 before he won the race formerly known as the Bud Shootout and his qualifying race.

10. Kasey Kahne, #5 Farmers Insurance Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            Kahne jumps to the top of my list for a guy that benefits from a championship format mostly based on wins, as he’s never had the race to race consistency for point racing.

9. Kurt Busch, #41 Haas Automation Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing

            It took two years in NASCAR purgatory, but Kurt Busch is finally back with an elite team.

8. Kevin Harvick, #4 Budweiser Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing

            The number and team are different, but we don’t expect a dramatic change in production from Harvick in his first year with Stewart-Haas.

7. Jeff Gordon, #24 Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            We think Gordon has one more serious championship run in him. A win based championship structure works in his favor.

6. Clint Bowyer, #15 5-Hour Energy Toyota, Michael Waltrip Racing

            The face of MWR’s manipulation of the regular season finale last year at Richmond, we actually expect Bowyer to contend for more wins now that his team has consolidated to two cars.

5. Brad Keselowski, #2 Miller Lite Ford, Penske Racing

            Sprint Cup’s 2012 champ had a miserable, snake bit regular season during his title defense, but a strong showing during the final ten races gives many reasons to believe he can return to a championship caliber level.

4. Matt Kenseth, #20 Home Depot Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing

            There’s typically a “runner-up hangover” for the driver that finishes second in the points the previous season, but the #20 car looks like it won’t skip a beat after winning a Duel race Thursday night.

3. Kyle Busch, #18 M&Ms Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing

            After Kasey Kahne, here’s our second driver the new format favors the most. He’s plenty capable of qualifying for each round of the playoffs with a win.

2. Carl Edwards, #99 Fastenal Ford, Roush-Fenway Racing

            No driver is better at Homestead than Carl Edwards, which gives him a decided advantage if he is in title contention going into the season finale.

1. Jimmie Johnson, #48 Lowe’s Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            It would be a severe case of tomfoolery to rank any other driver first as Johnson begins his quest for a record tying seventh championship.

2013 Chase for the Sprint Cup Predictions

            It’s bee one of the weirdest seasons in NASCAR history (punctuated by Michael Waltrip Racing’s dishonorable manipulation of the regular season finale. Good luck with no sponsors next year asshole), which has led to one of the more eclectic Chase fields in recent memory. We break down the 12-car field, plus discuss three bonus drivers who woulda-shoulda-coulda been in The Chase. 
 

He’d Be In The Chase, But He Broke His Leg

15. Tony Stewart - #14 Mobil/Bass Pro Shops Chevrolet – Stewart Haas Racing

            The 3-time champion (and the only man to win under the old and new points system) wasn’t a shoe-in for The Chase, but likely would’ve ended up with the second wildcard spot if it wasn’t for breaking his leg in a sprint car accident. He wouldn’t have been a favorite to win the title, but everyone (including Tony Stewart) was saying the same thing before his improbable 2011 run.
 

The Real Victim

14. Jeff Gordon - #24 – Hendrick Motorsports

            Lost in all the discussion about Ryan Newman replacing Martin Truex Jr. in The Chase is Jeff Gordon, who at the time of caution Saturday night was tenth in points, which would’ve secured a spot in The Chase. Don’t be surprised if we get a repeat of last November’s race at Phoenix multiple times during The Chase.

 

It Wasn’t His Fault

13. Martin Truex Jr. - #56 Napa Toyota – Michael Waltrip Racing

            Maybe Truex knew there was a plan before the race to help get him in. Maybe he didn’t. Regardless, he drove his ass off to keep Jeff Gordon behind him in the closing laps, and didn’t appear to have any knowledge of why the caution came out. His team deserved the penalty, but it sucks for the driver who had nothing to do with bringing out the caution.
   

Karma is a Bitch

12. Clint Bowyer - #15 5-Hour Energy Toyota – Michael Waltrip Racing

Tied for 8^th in Chase Seeding With 0 Wins
            The only person happy with Clint Bowyer is Kyle Busch, and that’s because there’s finally someone that NASCAR fans will boo louder than him during pre-race introductions.

Happy to Be Here

11. Greg Biffle - #16 3M Ford – Roush Fenway Racing

Tied for 6^th in Chase Seeding With 1 Win
            Roush is going to put all of its eggs in the Carl Edwards basket.

10. Dale Earnhardt Jr. - #88 AMP Energy Chevrolet – Hendrick Motorsports

Tied for 8^th in Chase Seeding With 0 Wins
            Not since the inaugural Chase has Dale Earnhardt Jr. been relevant in it. We don’t forecast anything different this year.

9. Kurt Busch - #78 Furniture Row Chevrolet – Furniture Row Racing

Tied for 8^th in Chase Seeding With 0 Wins
            Kurt making it in with Furniture Row Racing will be the second most impressive thing accomplished in NASCAR this season, only topped by whoever wins the title.
 

Punchers Chance at Making Noise

8. Kasey Kahne - #5 Farmers Insurance Chevrolet – Hendrick Motorsports

Tied For 8^th in Chase Seeding With Wildcard Entry
            Flopping from one of the fastest cars onto the track to hovering around mid-pack from week to week is not a formula for success. It’s not impossible for Kahne to string together ten solid races in a weakened Chase field, but we won’t bet on it.

7. Kevin Harvick - #29 Budweiser Chevrolet – Richard Childress Racing
Tied For 4^th in Chase Seeding With 2 Wins
            We’ll stand behind our theory we applied last season to Matt Kenseth about a lame duck driver not having a chance in The Chase.

6. Ryan Newman - #39 Quicken Loans/Outback Steakhouse Chevrolet – Stewart Haas Racing

Tied For 8^th in Chase Seeding With Wildcard Entry
            He’s riding a solid wave of one part momentum and one part good will, but he won’t be able to avoid the lame duck stink in the end.

5. Joey Logano - #22 Shell-Pennzoil Ford – Penske Racing
Tied For 6^th in Chase Seeding With 1 Win
            Throw out his middling performance at Richmond (which thankfully, is a type of track he won’t see in The Chase) and Logano was the hottest driver during the month of August. He’ll have speed at the 1.5 milers, but you should expect some inexperience to bite him in the end.
 

The Favorites

4. Matt Kenseth - #20 Home Depot Toyota – Joe Gibbs Racing

1^st in Chase Seeding With 5 Wins
            Throw out his Bristol win, and it’s been a fairly ordinary summer for Kenseth. He’ll be in the mix, but needs to recapture his early season form to win the championship.

3. Jimmie Johnson - #48 Lowe’s Chevrolet – Hendrick Motorsports

Tied For 2^nd in Chase Seeding With 4 Wins
            Jimmie Johnson’s last four finishes of 28th or worse are not fooling me. Johnson will be in the mix until Homestead.

2. Carl Edwards - #99 Subway/Fastenal/UPS/Kellogg’s Ford – Roush Fenway Racing

Tied For 4^th in Chase Seeding With 2 Wins
            Quietly, Edwards was the point’s leader at the end of the NASCAR regular season. In a diminished Chase field, a consistent ten races might be enough for Cousin Carl to win his first championship.

 

The Favorite  

1. Kyle Busch - #18 M&Ms Toyota – Joe Gibbs Racing

Tied For 2^nd in Chase Seeding With 4 Wins
            I get it. Busch has never done anything in The Chase. In fact, it’s been mostly embarrassing. However, he has too much talent, and among the favorites, the most momentum after a solid summer. There’s no Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, Jeff Gordon, or Brad Keselowski to deal with. If he out performs the three drivers we just mentioned, it’s his championship. He normally flames out early in The Chase, so it won’t take long to see if our prediction is correct.

2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup Preview

EDITORS NOTE: The entire following preview was written before the horrific last lap crash in today’s Nationwide. At the time of this posting, one fan is in critical condition with significant brain trauma and is in surgery. Our thoughts and prayers go out to all the fans and families impacted by Saturday’s unfortunate accident.

35. David Stremme, #30 Toyota, Swan Racing

            The new owner of Swan Racing says he wants to “compete for victories”, and vows not to be a start and park. David Stremme is the wrong driver to accomplish that goal with.

34. Dave Blaney, #36 Accell Construction Chevrolet, Tommy Baldwin Racing

            Other than the jet dryer explosion, the most incredible development from last year’s Daytona 500 was Dave Blaney trending on Twitter.

33. David Gilliland, #38 Mod Space Ford, Front Row Motorsports

32. Casey Mears, #13 Geico Toyota, Germain Racing
            Here are a couple of dudes that incredibly, are still employed as Sprint Cup drivers.

31. Bobby Labonte, #47 Kroger Toyota, JTG Daugherty Racing

            Click the above link if you don’t believe me when I say Bobby Labonte was the 2000 Winston Cup champion.

30. David Ragan, #34, MHP Ford, Front Row Motorsports

            Poor David Ragan is still stuck in NASCAR purgatory at Front Row Motorsports.

29. Trevor Bayne, #21 Motorcraft Ford, Wood Brothers

            This will be Bayne’s last part-time season driving the legendary #21 before driving for Jack Roush in Sprint Cup next year.

28. Regan Smith, #51 Tag Heuer Chevrolet, Phoenix Racing

27. A.J. Allmendinger #51 Tag Heuer Chevrolet, Phoenix Racing
            We’ll have a greater appreciation for Kurt Busch after we see what this duo does in James Finch’s cars.

26. Danica Patrick, #10 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing

            She’ll compete at restrictor plate tracks but it’s still a steep learning curve everywhere else.

25. Paul Menard, #27 Menard’s Chevrolet, Richard Childress Racing

            Remember when Paul Menard stole the Brickyard 400 from Jeff Gordon a couple of years back? Me neither.

24. Mark Martin/Brian Vickers/Michael Waltrip, #55 Aaron’s Dream Machine Toyota, Michael Waltrip Racing

            There has never been a better performing car that was shared by multiple drivers in the past 30 years than the #55 Toyota. If Martin were driving it full-time, he’d be ranked in the top-12.

23. Jeff Burton, #31 Caterpillar Chevrolet, Richard Childress Racing

            Kevin Harvick’s departure after the season is the only reason Burton has a chance of keeping his ride for 2014.

22. Jamie McMurray, #1 McDonalds Chevrolet, Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing

            That year where McMurray won a few times and was crying all over the place was pretty fun.

21. Aric Almirola, #43 Smithfield Foods Ford, Richard Petty Motorsports

            Almirola did just enough last year to earn a second go around at RPM, but it will likely take a win for him to secure employment for 2014.

20. Kurt Busch, #78 Furniture Row Chevrolet, Furniture Row Racing

            I don’t know what to make of Kurt Busch this year, but three straight top-10s to close out 2012 is an encouraging sign for the 2004 Nextel Cup champion. His best chance to sneak into The Chase will be stealing a couple of wins between the two road courses or the short tracks.

19. Ryan Newman, #39 Quicken Loans Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing

           It feels like the end of the line for Newman, as he was only able to lock up a one-year deal with Stewart-Haas. I expect him to enter the Bobby Labonte phase of his career next season.

18. Marcos Ambrose, #9 Stanley Ford, Richard Petty Motorsports

            Both of Ambrose’s career victories have been the most exciting finishes of the ‘10s so far. He needs to add a win at Sonoma to make the playoffs.
      
17. Joey Logano, #22 Pennzoil Ford, Penske Racing
            I like Logano’s move to Penske for the long-term, but I see an adjustment period between joining a new team and adapting to the Gen-6 car.

16. Juan Pablo Montoya, #42 Target Chevrolet, Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing

            Montoya put on a show when he gained ten spots to finish third in Thursday’s first Dual. It was almost a tenth as entertaining as his crash into the jet dryer last year.

15. Martin Truex Jr., #56 Napa Toyota, Michael Waltrip Racing

            Truex was the biggest surprise of the 2012 season before his team flamed out in The Chase. No Credentials forecasts a significant regression, as his lack of win potential limits his chances of earning a wildcard spot.

14. Ricky Stenhouse Jr., #17 Best Buy Ford, Roush-Fenway Racing

            Mr. Danica Patrick is the best Sprint Cup rookie the series has seen since Denny Hamlin. It won’t likely result in a Chase bid, but I’d be surprised if Stenhouse doesn’t pull into victory lane this year.

13. Kevin Harvick, #29 Budweiser Chevrolet, Richard Childress Racing

            I had Harvick pegged at 17 before he went 2-2 in his first two races of Speedweeks. Nevertheless, lame ducks do not win championships.

12. Greg Biffle, #16 3M Ford, Roush-Fenway Racing

            Biffle had his best year since 2005, but he struggles too much at short tracks to be considered a serious championship threat.

11. Tony Stewart, #14 Mobil 1 Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing

            Ironically enough, I had Stewart ranked at 11 in my 2011 Chase Preview column. We all know how that turned out.

10. Matt Kenseth, #20 The Home Depot Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing

            Kenseth will do well in his first season, but I don’t believe he will become the lead driver at Gibbs over Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin. Regardless, it’s really bizarre to see the former champion in anything other than the #17.

9. Dale Earnhardt Jr., #88 National Guard Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            I bet you didn’t know that Junior posted the best average finish of his career in 2012. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that the switch to the new cars will benefit him more than any other driver.

8. Clint Bowyer, #15 5-Hour Energy Toyota, Michael Waltrip Racing

            Bowyer enjoyed remarkable success in his first season at MWR, so expect a slight return to Earth in 2013.

7. Carl Edwards, #99 Fastenal/Subway/UPS/Aflac/Kellogg’s Ford, Roush-Fenway Racing

            Edwards had a disastrous 2012, but history is on his side (sort of). Edwards was a popular pick to win the championship in 2006, but went winless and ended up 12^th in points. He rebounded to win three races in 2007. In 2009, Edwards was again a title favorite after collecting a series high nine victories. Edwards again went winless, but rebounded to win twice and finish fourth in the points in 2010. In other words, the last two times Carl was coming off a shitty year, he rebounded. Inheriting the bulk of Matt Kenseth’s former crew will only help his cause.

6. Jimmie Johnson, #48 Lowe’s Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            Johnson’s days of winning championships are done. You heard it here first.

5. Jeff Gordon, #24 Dupont Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            Gordon never got a hold of the Car of Tomorrow, so following Dale Jr., he’s the second driver who should benefit the most from the car switch. If only he could get Ray Evernham back on his pit box.

4. Denny Hamlin, #11 Fed-Ex Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing

            Hamlin would’ve had a puncher’s chance at last season’s championship if not for a disastrous day at Martinsville, which historically, is his best track. He stands to benefit the most from the addition of Matt Kenseth to Joe Gibbs Racing.

3. Brad Keselowski, #2 Miller Lite Ford, Penske Racing

            Bad Brad is just what NASCAR needs. A young, brash young champion who is relatively relatable to the common man. Penske’s switch to Ford was made easier thanks to it coinciding with the switch to the Gen-6 cars.

2. Kyle Busch, #18 M&Ms Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing

            Entering his late-20s, Kyle Busch is just entering his prime (which is hard to believe, because he’s been driving in Sprint Cup for eight years). It’s a matter of time before he puts it all together for a championship-winning season.

1. Kasey Kahne, #5 Farmers Insurance Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            Kahne’s first season with Hendrick couldn’t have started any worse, but he still rallied to a fourth place finish in points. With a year under his belt, look for Kahne to lead the Hendrick charge and capture his first career Sprint Cup title.

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Weekend (10/11-10/13)

10. Derek Jeter Fractures His Left Ankle
            Even the staunchest Red Sox Nation supporter has to feel bad for the Yankees captain. Much like Peyton Manning going down last year, you’d much rather see your rival lose on the field than not be able to play because of injury.

9. Anderson Silva Destroys Stephan Bonner

            Silva was brought in to UFC 153 to essentially save the card, and put on a dominating display. If Dana White has his way, a date with Jon Jones could be in his future.

8. Notre Dame Survives Frantic Finish, Knocks Off Stanford in Overtime

            Notre Dame isn’t playing the sexiest brand of football, but they are 6-0 for the first time in a decade.

7. Clint Bowyer Has Just Enough Gas to Win at Charlotte

            A big night in the Chase, as mismanagement of fuel mileage by Brad Keselowski has tightened the standings.

6. Aaron Rodgers Throws Ten Million Touchdown Passes

            All right, Rodgers actually only threw six touchdown passes, but ten million made for a sexier headline. Huge performance by the Packers on the road in a must win game.

5. Felix Baumgartner Successfully Plummets 24 Miles From Outer Space

            I don’t mean to be morbid, but what would’ve happened if this freefall were unsuccessful? Would he have pile-drived through the Earth’s crust and reappeared in Sweden?

4. Herschel Gets His Leg Bit, Then Cut Off On “The Walking Dead”
            As my wife astutely pointed out shortly after the conclusion of the Season 3 premier, it didn’t make a whole lot of sense for Rick to drag the man who’s supposed to deliver your wife’s baby along on a dangerous search mission.

3. Ravens Try to Give Game Away, Still Beat Cowboys
            This game covered the majority of reasons the Dallas Cowboys lose football games. Let’s run through the list and check off everything they hit Sunday.

A.     A backbreaking turnover or two or five (Check. Romo’s interception late in the first half turned what should’ve been a 13-10 lead into a 17-10 deficit. For those of you not mathematically inclined, that’s a 10-point swing)

B.     A goofy special teams play (Check. Jacoby Jones tied the NFL record for longest kickoff return with his 108-yard touchdown in the third quarter)

C.     Bad play calling (Stunningly, can’t check this one off. Jason Garrett stuck to the running game even when he was down to his third and fourth string runningbacks)

D.     Dominate total yards and time of possession (Check. Dallas had the ball twice as long as the Ravens did, and out gained Baltimore 481-316)

E.      Jerry Jones ran onto the field and in a desperate attempt to relive his athletic days, played right guard on a crucial third down (Can’t check this one, but that would’ve been great if it did happen)

F.      Dez Bryant either doing something stupid or failing to make a play (Check. Dropping the two-point conversion pass that hit him right in the chest counts as failing to make a play)

G.     An injury to an important player (Check. DeMarco Murray sprained his foot after running all over the Ravens in the first half)

H.     Poor clock management (Check. After a gift pass interference call gave Dallas the ball at the Ravens 35, they completed a short pass, and then let 20 seconds run off the clock before using their last timeout. They didn’t run another play, which prevented them from getting any closer. Naturally, Dan Bailey missed a 52-yard field goal to end the game)

2. RGIII Goes Bonkers

            Griffin’s 76-yard touchdown run to seal the game was the most electrifying touchdown of the 2012 season so far. 

1. Russell Wilson Leads Stunning Comeback Victory Over New England

            I guess I have to stop saying that Russell Wilson sucks. At least for one week.

Mid-Season NASCAR Power Rankings

Don’t Ask Him to Pee in a Cup

35. A.J. Allmendinger

            A.J. literally pissed his chances of a legitimate Sprint Cup career away, barring a miraculous B-sample test result.

Completely, Utterly, Irrelevant

34. David Stremme

33. Dave Blaney
32. David Reutimann
31. Landon Cassill
30. Travis Kvapil
29. David Gilliland
28. Casey Mears
            This group has accomplished only two noteworthy things this season. Dave Blaney was the leader of the Daytona 500 when Juan Pablo Montoya took out the jet dryer (which resulted in Blaney being a trending topic on Twitter, which is reason #112 the Mayans might be on to something). David Reutimann drove his decrepit racecar around one lap too long at Martinsville, stopped on the front straightaway, and fucked up a classic duel between Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon. Other than that, nothing to see here.

Incredibly, These Guys Won a Race Last Year

27. David Ragan

            It’s really hard to look at David Ragan and not feel bad for the guy. Going from Roush Fenway to Front Row Motorsports is like going from Hawaii to North Korea.

26. Regan Smith

            Sadly, the fortunes of Smith have taken a turn for the worse in 2012. His average finish is down 3 spots, and he’s only finished on the lead lap 1/6^th of the races (he accomplished that just over half the time last season). Someone needs to pump some R&D dollars into Furniture Row Racing.

Modern Day 1990’s Version of Darrell Waltrip

25. Bobby Labonte

            Sometime in the late-90s, a sportswriter asked Darrell Waltrip why he was still hanging around, ruining his reputation and making everyone forget that he was once a championship-winning driver. His reply? “Can’t quit, money’s too good.” I’m guessing Bobby Labonte would have a similar answer to that question.

Keeping the Seat Warm for Somebody

24. Aric Almirola

            Joey Logano. Ryan Newman. Kurt Busch. All three of those drivers are significantly more talented than Almirola, and all three could be available to drive the flagship car for Dodge next season. Almirola better be ready for a start and park gig next year.

Used to be Relevant (Emphasis on “Used”)

23. Jamie McMurray

            Two years ago, McMurray won both the Daytona 500 and the Brickyard 400. This season, his best finish is seventh, and he only has two other finishes inside the top-10. The equipment at Earnhardt-Ganassi isn’t cutting the mustard.

22. Jeff Burton

            No Credentials predicts that Jeff Burton will officially enter the D.W. 1990s version point of his career in 2013. He’s washed up, and it’s time for Richard Childress to find a new driver for the 31.

21. Juan Pablo Montoya

            I could wax poetic about the struggles of Montoya, but instead let’s post the video of the jet dryer he crashed into exploding.

2004-05 Jeremy Mayfield Impersonator, Minus the Crystal Meth Addiction

20. Paul Menard

            Jeremy Mayfield’s most noteworthy career accomplishment will be making the first two Chase’s by hammering out mediocre top-15 finishes week after week. Menard has been following a similar plan, but unfortunately the field is much deeper now.

Drives His Ass Off

19. Kurt Busch

            Kurt Busch has done quite a few noteworthy things in his year of purgatory. He gave his brother Kyle his first Nationwide win as an owner. Busch brought James Finch Racing to victory lane at Daytona in July (which even though it was Nationwide, was still a major David vs. Goliath moment in the world of auto racing). Most impressively, he wheeled a car with a broken suspension to a third place finish at Sonoma (which in case you forget, is one of two tracks that features right turns). Unfortunately, the following run-in with a reporter will severely hinder Busch’s chances of landing a top-flight ride in 2013.

Frisky at Certain Locations

18. Marcos Ambrose

            Ambrose has shown tremendous progress on ovals this season, but the egg he laid at Sonoma will prevent him sneaking in to The Chase.

17. Ryan Newman

            Newman is only nine points out of the second wild card heading into the Brickyard 400, but his unsettled future makes No Credentials feel like he has no chance of making it. Newman has no contract for next season with Stewart-Haas.

16. Joey Logano

            Logano appears to have done enough to keep a seat at Joe Gibbs Racing (the only reason Matt Kenseth’s deal with Gibbs hasn’t been announced is because they are still finalizing Logano’s sponsorship package), and the next two races will be his best chance at sneaking into a wildcard spot. He dominated the first Sprint Cup race at Pocono (which the series will return to the first Sunday in August), and success there usually translates to a good run at Indianapolis. If he sweeps both races, he’ll be in The Chase.

3-Headed Monster

15. Mark Martin/Brian Vickers/Michael Waltrip

            If you added up all of the points the drivers of the #55 have earned, they would currently be twelfth in points. We haven’t seen anything like this in Sprint Cup in years. 

Flop of the Year

14. Carl Edwards

            I had a feeling this season would play out like this for Cousin Carl, but didn’t have enough intestinal fortitude to rank him this low before the season. Edwards has only led one lap at a track other than Richmond this season. Maybe next year he can get Matt Kenseth’s personal to give him a boost.

Worse Luck Than the 1980 Soviet Union Hockey Team

13. Jeff Gordon

            Ending up on his roof in the Budweiser Shootout was only the beginning of a maddening season for Gordon. Unlike Carl Edwards, Gordon has led his fair share of laps, and has been in contention to win on multiple occasions. Crashes, equipment failure, and bad breaks have bit the former Boy Wonder like never before. Folks still believe in him, but his days of ripping off multiple wins in a short time span are about eight years behind him. The Brickyard 400 is a must win for him.

Will Probably Make the Chase, but Won’t be Factors

12. Martin Truex Jr.

            Truex looked like a sure bet to reach victory lane just over a month ago, but has tailed off since. Of the drivers currently in the top 10, he would appear to be the most likely to drop out.

11. Kevin Harvick

            Richard Childress Racing just hasn’t had the speed this season (see the performance of Jeff Burton and Paul Menard for proof). Harvick has done a brilliant job of getting the Budweiser Chevrolet safely into the top 10 in points, but that won’t be enough to bring home a championship. Fortunately, Harvick still has his way with words.

Will Make the Chase, and Then Choke Like He Does Every Year

10. Kyle Busch

            For all of Kyle Busch’s success, do you realize he has only won once during the NASCAR playoffs? He desperately needs a win to secure a spot in this year’s Chase.

Legitimate Championship Contenders

9. Clint Bowyer

            The lead dog for emerging MWR, who would of thought that Bowyer would actually be increasing his title chances by leaving Richard Childress? Bowyer is the best dark horse bet to win the championship.

8. Greg Biffle

            Biffle has had a fantastic bounce back season after a frustrating 2011. His struggles at three of the Chase venues (Loudon, Martinsville, and Phoenix) are why he’s ranked so low.

7. Matt Kenseth

            Kenseth is still leading the points, but No Credentials has a hard time believing that his lame duck status with Roush won’t begin to have an impact on the success of the 17 car.

6. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

            Junior’s resurgence this season has been huge for the sport, but similar to Kyle Busch, Junior has never had a great deal of success come playoff time. He won two races in the inaugural Chase back in 2004, but hasn’t reached victory lane since.

5. Denny Hamlin

            No Credentials pre-season pick to win hasn’t been too bad this season, but Gibbs just seems to be a hair off on the mile and a half ovals this season.

4. Brad Keselowski

            If the Chase started right now, Keselowski would be tied for first with Tony Stewart thanks to his series high three wins. He’ll be a monster next season when Penske makes the switch from Dodge to Ford.

3. Tony Stewart

            Stewart has been all or nothing this season, seemingly finishing in either the top-3 or in the twenties every week. His epic 2011 title run would suggest that perhaps Stewart has been experimenting a bit this season in an effort to secure more bonus points for the Chase. I wouldn’t be surprised if Stewart began ripping off top-5s week after week in the fall.

2. Kasey Kahne

            His luck in the beginning of the season was abysmal, but Kahne has roared to life since May. Kahne has the speed this year. It’s just a matter of him keeping the car in one piece. No Credentials feels safe suggesting that Kahne will win one of the next five championships.

The Favorite

1. Jimmie Johnson

            Johnson didn’t get off to a sterling start this year either (thank Elliott Sadler and his crooked crew chief, the Evil Dr. Chad Knaus for that), but quietly Johnson has been the most consistent driver since the clocks sprung ahead. The only chink in his armor would appear to be his shoddy pit crew, but we know that Rick Hendrick is willing to swap crews in the name of winning when it matters most (remember Hendrick made the call to switch Jeff Gordon’s pit crew with Johnson’s back in the final race of the 2010 season). It’s Johnson’s championship to lose.

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Past Weekend (10/21-10/23)

10. Houston Blows Out Titans 41-7
            So did I curse Tennessee more when I wagered money on them, or when I picked up their quarterback to sub for Michael Vick this week on one of my fantasy teams?

9. Manchester City Rocks Manchester United

            I’ll never pretend to be a futbol guy, but winning 6-1 in Man U’s house is list worthy.

8. Raiders Toss Six Picks, Get Crushed By Hapless Chiefs

            For those of you surprised by the stink bomb let loose by Carson Palmer in the second half of Sunday’s game, I’ll refer you to some analysis written by No Credentials a day after the Palmer trade went down.

7. Clint Bowyer Wins, Jimmie Johnson’s Title Hopes Are Toast (Hopefully)
            50 points behind points leader Carl Edwards, and stuck behind six other drivers, it looks like we will finally be crowning a new champion in NASCAR.

6. Pujols Mashes Three Homers in Game 3

            Texas evened the series Sunday night, but that doesn’t diminish Albert’s accomplishment Saturday night. Pujols becomes only the third player in MLB history to hit three home runs in a World Series game, joining hall of famers Babe Ruth and Reggie Jackson. Theo Epstein might have to tack on an extra $20 million if he wants to get Pujols into a Cub uniform.

5. Green Bay 33, Minnesota 27

4. Dallas 34, St. Louis 7
3. New Orleans 62, Indianapolis 7
            Why are three items together this week? Because the Cowboys, Packers, and Saints delivered No Credentials first successful three-team teaser on Sportsbook. I felt like Lance Armstrong during the final stage of the Tour ‘de France (minus the glass of wine and HGH pulsating through my veins) as New Orleans scored touchdown after touchdown against the hapless Colts. I’m looking forward to blowing all of my winnings next week on either another three-team teaser or betting on Brad Keselowski to win the Sprint Cup.

2. God’s Quarterback Pulls Off Epic Rally

            Similar to the junior mint episode of “Seinfeld”, something otherworldly appeared to happen in Miami today as Tim Tebow led two scoring drives in the final three minutes to force overtime. Or more likely, Miami remembered that they have to lose every game in order to get Andrew Luck on their team.

1. Hail Mary Dooms Wisconsin, Gives Michigan State Victory

            What does it take for college football to grab the top spot on the weekly top 10? A Hail Mary pass that knocks off a BCS title contender.

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Past Weekend (10/7-10/9)

10. Clint Bowyer Agrees to Join Michael Waltrip Racing in 2012
            I’ll let the following video explain the irony of this situation.

9. Tebow Gets in the Game, Almost Leads Comeback Against Chargers

            If Tebow doesn’t start in two weeks after the Broncos have their bye week, I’m not sure there’s enough marijuana in Denver to subdue angry Denver fans.

8. Jimmie Johnson Dominates Kansas, Within Four Points of Championship Lead

            Probably should save time and just start calling Jimmie “Six-Time”.

7. Ben Roethlisberger Tosses Five Touchdowns in Steelers Rout of Tennessee

            My worst of three fantasy teams is very thankful that Ben Roethlisberger finally decided to show up this season.

6. Milwaukee Brewers Win Game 1 of NLCS

            The folks in charge of the Brewers bandwagon were nice enough to let me on it despite the fact that my cholesterol level is significantly lower than their average fan.

5. Tiger Wood Has Hot Dog Thrown At Him While Lining up Putt

            As strange a headline as that is, the most bizarre part is that the person who tossed the dog wasn’t a female.

4. The Philadelphia Eagles Stink

            Philadelphia is further proof that signing a bunch of big names doesn’t create instant chemistry. We saw it in the NBA last year during the Miami Heat’s first 15 games. Unfortunately, the Eagles don’t have an 82-game season to figure things out.

3. “The Firm” Goes Bonkers, Leads Patriots Over Jets
            I was at Gillette Stadium back in October of 2008 when Ben-Jarvis Green-Ellis made his first appearance in a regular season game for the Patriots. New England was hammering Denver on a Monday night (which was a pisser for me because I had three Broncos going on my fantasy team that week. I was down by 25 points or so going into the game, and those four Broncos combined for 12). Due to alcohol consumption, it sounded like the stadium announcer was saying seven names after Green-Ellis’ first carry. It was easily the most entertaining moment of the night (other than the crowd booing Matt Cassel, who got sacked eight times. I wish I could’ve talked to Chiefs fans before he signed with them). I don’t think any of us there that night expected Green-Ellis to become so relevant that he would earn a nickname, or that he would someday run for 136 yards and two touchdowns against the Jets.

2. Chris Carpenter Out-Duels Roy Halladay, Knocks Out Phillies

            How excited must the executives of FOX be now that the World Series will be without the Red Sox, Yankees, and Phillies?

1. Oakland Raiders Honor Al Davis, Steal a Win in Houston

            I’m too young to remember Al Davis being more than just a punching bag for sports columnists. People questioned if Davis was actually a sea monster. Some even wondered if he had actually died ten years ago. My most memorable Davis moment was when he awkwardly bashed former Raiders Head Coach Lane Kiffin during a press conference a few years back. Instead of writing a long, Wikipedia-esque paragraph about what Al Davis met to the game of football, I’ll let current Raiders Head Coach Hue Jackson explain what Davis meant to the Raiders.

Blow Out The Budget 2011 NASCAR Preview

            If it seems like NASCAR just ended, that’s because it just did. The last week of the 2010 season was during week 10 of the NFL season, and the 2011 season starts two weeks after the Super Bowl (does that make any sense? Me thinks not). Hopefully the suits running the show figure out that having events 38 weeks of the year isn’t a good idea. In spite of this, all of the jokes I’ve cracked about NASCAR since this blog started in November put me in the mood to right a mega-NASCAR preview. I’ve ranked 36 drivers, and give little insights about each of them (some of the information is relevant, some not), and also grouped them into divisions. We’ll go from the lowest ranked driver all the way down to the first. Enjoy.

IRRELEVANT, BUT I CAN TELL YOU A GOOD STORY

AKA THE DICK TRICKLE DIVISION

36. Robby Gordon - #7 – Monster Energy – Toyota – Robby Gordon Motorsports

Claim to Fame - Robby Gordon has the distinction of being my fiancée’s favorite driver, because every time we turn on a NASCAR race, Robby Gordon is running in 36^th place.

Most Memorable Win – The date was November 23, 2001, which was also the day after Thanksgiving. Due to the terrorist attacks on September 11^th, the race at New Hampshire International Speedway was postponed until the end of the NASCAR season, which meant that a race would be run in New England in late November. Fortunately, it was sunny in the high-40s, so they weren’t trying to race in a blizzard.  I’ll remember this event for two reasons.

1. My Dad used to get free tickets for every Cup race at Loudon. We used to have a blast going to them, but he was looking forward to going to the November race about as much as a dog would look forward to getting neutered. There aren’t too many people who have lived in New England their entire lives that hate winter as much as my Dad does. If you call him the day after a snowstorm, you would think he found out one of his close relatives was involved in a humiliating sex scandal. Even though it was unseasonably warm that day, he was miserable sitting in the stands watching the race.
2. The race itself wasn’t too memorable until the very end. Jeff Gordon (who had already clinched his 4^th championship the week before) dominated most of the event. With 16 laps to go, he came upon a slower car in turn 3. When Jeff slowed down to avoid making contact with the lapped car, Robby Gordon (no relation to Jeff) rammed Jeff in the back bumper, causing the #24 car to make contact with the slower car and spin out. The crowd went bonkers (as I will explain when we get to the #1 ranked driver, 90% of the crowd at a NASCAR race hates whoever is doing the best. It will make sense at the end of this column. Trust me). Jeff Gordon, in a rare fit of rage, sped up under caution and smacked the side of Robby Gordon’s car. NASCAR black-flagged him for rough driving, and then everyone in the crowd gave Jeff the finger every time he drove by (I forgot how fun that was until I typed that sentence. Oh the memories). Robby Gordon held on for the first of his three career Cup series wins while driving for Richard Childress.

35. Boris Said - #26 – Window World Cares – Ford – Latitude 43 Racing

Claim to Fame – Boris is one of the best Grand Touring drivers in the world, but more importantly, Boris Said has a fantastic afro. The hair-do is so epic, his die-hard fans wear fake wigs and call themselves “Said-Heads” (I’m not making that up I swear). He’s also from Canada, which means he’s kind of awkward.

Most Memorable Moment – Every time Said’s afro is shown on live television, it enters in to a tie for first with every other time Said’s afro has been shown on live television.

Who He Reminds Me Of – Painter Bob Ross, who passed away over 15 years ago. I don’t know if you’ve ever seen reruns of this guy’s show (where he does a painting from start to finish in less than a half hour), but I swear I’m stoned after watching 10 minutes of it, and I don’t even have to smoke anything. And oh ya, he also had a fantastic afro.

34. Joe Nemechek - #87 – Unsponsored – Toyota – NEMCO Motorsports

Claim to Fame – Was nicknamed “Front Row Joe” in the late 1990s after a string of strong qualifying efforts. This name was much more flattering than “28^th Place Joe”, which is the nickname he would’ve been given for his typical finishing position.

33. Bill Elliott - #21 – Motorcraft – Ford – Wood Brothers

Claim to Fame – “Awesome Bill From Dawsonville” won the Winston Million in 1985 (an award given for winning three of the four biggest races), and then won the Winston Cup in 1986.

How He Is Helping Me On eBay – I’ve posted all sorts of junk on eBay over the past few months. Two days ago, I listed an old, crusty Tyvek windbreaker that was the team jacket for Bill Elliott in 1986 (I’m pretty sure wearing Tyvek is the equivalent of wearing a GLAD trash bag). In just two days, I have 10 people that are watching this jacket, and three bids that have already been placed, and the auction is still open for five more days.

(RANT ALERT: This has no relevance to anything, but I just wanted to write about eBay for a second. I’ve had some success with it, which is nice, because a few years ago a friend and I went into an eBay partnership. We bought five jackets from Adidas and attempted to sell them for $60 a pop. My friend (who was quite a visionary photographer) took some pictures of me “modeling” the jacket (I hope they aren’t still floating around on the Internet. If I ever win “Miss America”, we might have another Vanessa Williams situation on our hands). Let’s just say that the experience was a disaster. We sold one jacket to some guy in Taiwan, and then sat on the other four until the wife of a coworker was nice enough to actually post them in a manner that would encourage people to buy them. To make a long story short, my second go around with eBay has gone much better)

32. Michael Waltrip - #15 – Napa – Chevrolet – Michael Waltrip Racing

Claim to Fame – Won the Daytona 500 twice, and also starred in plenty of very annoying Napa commercials. He’ll only be racing a handful of races this season.

31. Steve Wallace - #77 – 5-Hour Energy – Toyota – Rusty Wallace Racing

Claim to Fame – All right, a legacy child! The only reason Steve will be running some races in the Sprint Cup is because he’s Rusty Wallace’s son. That’s it.

30. Travis Kvapil - #28 – Golden Corral – Ford – Front Row Motorsports

Claim to Fame – His last name starts with a “k” and a “v”, which is very odd.         

29. Regan Smith - #78 – Furniture Row – Chevrolet – Furniture Row Racing

Claim to Fame – At Talladega in October of 2008, he passed Tony Stewart in the tri-oval on the last lap to cross the finish line in first place. However, NASCAR ruled that Smith went below the yellow line (which is out of bounds at restrictor plate tracks) and took the win away from him. Smith protested that he was forced below the yellow line by Stewart (a defense that was backed by video evidence), but NASCAR didn’t overturn the decision. I’m not saying NASCAR took away the win from a lesser-known driver to give it to one of their stars…well wait that is what I’m saying.

28. Paul Menard - #27 – Menards – Chevrolet – Richard Childress Racing

Claim to Fame – Paul is the son of the owner of Menards (a mid-western home improvement chain), which is a company that is estimated to do around $8 billion in revenue per year. In other words, Menard really isn’t a good driver, but his father provides ton of sponsorship money so a team is able to have Paul drive the car (because more often than not, decisions are dollar based in this sport).

PROBABLY SHOULD’VE RETIRED SIX YEARS AGO

AKA THE RICHARD PETTY DIVISION

27. Bobby Labonte - #47 – Bush’s Baked Beans – Toyota - JTG Daugherty Racing

Who He Reminds Me Of – Boxer Evander Holyfield (minus the getting his ear bit off by Mike Tyson). Holyfield has hung around so long after his prime, that it’s easy to forget he was once one of the best boxers in the world. It’s to the point now that whenever you hear Holyfield is thinking about getting back into the ring, you just laugh.

            Labonte isn’t too far off. He’s been so irrelevant since he left Joe Gibbs Racing it’s easy to forget that he won the championship in 2000. The guy has had only one top-5 finish in the last five years. At least he is on a team that has the capability to run well at times, but expect more 25^th place or worse finishes for one of the better drivers of the late-90s. 

INTRIGUING, BUT CAN’T JUSTIFY PUTTING THEM ANY HIGHER

AKA THE GEOFF BODINE DIVISION

26. Brian Vickers - #83 – Red Bull – Toyota – Red Bull Racing

Season Outlook– Vickers is a tough guy to gauge going into 2011. He won a race and made The Chase in 2009, but was derailed by major health issues last season. Vickers needed to be put on blood thinners to take care of blood clots in his lungs, and then had surgery to fix a hole in his heart in August. I would expect him to be pretty rusty for the first half of the season.

Most Memorable Win – Infamously wrecked Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jimmie Johnson (who at the time was his teammate at Hendrick) on the last lap of the fall race at Talladega. Fans at the track celebrated the victory by throwing beer cans at his car.

25. Brad Keselowski - #2 – Miller Lite – Dodge – Penske Racing

Good Cop – Keselowski is a talented young driver who dominated the Nationwide Series in 2010 to win that series championship (for those of you who do not like NASCAR, A) I’m stunned you’re still reading this, and B) Nationwide is basically the equivalent of Triple-A baseball). He ran well at times during his rookie year in Sprint Cup, but inexperience often got the best of him (that and being hated by more than half of his fellow drivers, but we’ll save that for the Bad Cop). With a year under his belt, the Good Cop expects Keselowski to contend for wins, and maybe even have an outside chance at making The Chase.

Bad Cop – Keselowski is a meathead who can’t get out of his own way. His feuds with drivers like Carl Edwards and Denny Hamlin have resulted in him getting flipped onto his roof at 190 mph, and ending up sideways in the middle of a straightaway getting piled into by multiple cars. Until he gains the respect of his fellow competitors, he’ll never be successful at NASCAR’s highest level. The Bad Cop predicts he’ll finish 32^nd in the points.

BIG NAMES, NO GAME

AKA THE JIMMY SPENCER DIVISION

24. Ryan Newman - #39 – Army – Chevrolet - Stewart-Haas Racing

Claim to Fame – Newman is the only driver who has earned a college degree, and is also the only driver in the garage fatter than Tony Stewart (who ironically, owns his racecar).

Best Season – Newman won 8 of his career 14 Cup races in 2003 while driving for Roger Penske. He also won 11 poles. If it weren’t for a boom-or-bust style of racing (Newman also had seven DNFs), Newman would’ve won the championship.

Why He’s Ranked This Low – Last season he finished 15^th in points. While he certainly could end up around that area at season’s end, is there a chance he cracks the Chase this season? I just don’t see it happening for Newman. He does have some extra motivation this season (he’s a free agent after this season), so perhaps he will exceed my expectations.

23. Mark Martin - #5 – GoDaddy.com – Chevrolet – Hendrick Motorsports

Claim to Fame – Of all drivers in NASCAR, no one more closely resembles the Crypt Keeper from “Tales From the Crypt” more than Mark Martin.

His Real Claim to Fame – No one in NASCAR history has been more famous for consistently being the runner-up. He has finished second in the final season standings five times (1990 and ’94 to Dale Earnhardt, 1998 to Jeff Gordon, 2002 to Tony Stewart, and 2009 to Jimmie Johnson), and also was beaten in a photo finish by Kevin Harvick at the 2007 Daytona 500.

Why He’s Ranked This Low – He’s a lame duck driver (he will be replaced by Kasey Kahne for 2012) who got the short-end of the stick with Hendrick’s swapping of crew chiefs.

ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE

AKA THE STERLING MARLIN DIVISION

22. Marcos Ambrose - #9 – Stanley – Ford – Richard Petty Motorsports

Claim to Fame – Put his car in neutral while leading at Sonoma with a few laps to go so he could save fuel, but unfortunately he was going uphill. His car stalled and four other drivers passed him before he could restart it, causing Ambrose to miss out on what would’ve been his first career Sprint Cup victory.

Fun Fact – Ambrose is the only driver in Sprint Cup history from Australia. Ambrose was an accomplished sports car racer overseas before making the jump to NASCAR in 2009.

Low Ceiling, High Floor – Ambrose has a great opportunity to succeed this season. Richard Petty has contracted to only two teams, and his organization has a close alliance with Roush Racing. If Ambrose is given quality cars, he could absolutely win races (especially at one of the two road courses) and contend for a spot in The Chase. If Petty gives him sub-par equipment, he should end up closer to 30^th than 15^th in the final standings. 

21. David Ragan - #6 – UPS – Ford – Roush Fenway Racing

Claim to Fame – Tony Stewart described David Ragan as “a dart without feathers” after Ragan was involved in several incidents at a 2006 race at Martinsville.

Why No One Talks About Him – Ragan is what we in the fantasy sports business call a “post-hype sleeper”. Two years ago, he was supposed to make the jump to becoming a weekly contender for wins, but after two lackluster seasons, he’s now facing the possibility of losing his ride. I’ll tack his struggles last season to the general problems of the Roush organization. If Jack Roush himself is to be believed (he has said that this is the most confidence he has ever had going into a season) than Ragan should have a good chance to run as competitively as he did in 2008.

20. David Reutimann - #00 – Aaron’s Dream Machine – Toyota – Michael Waltrip Racing

His Chances to Make the Chase – The odds of Reutimann cracking the top 10 at the end of the regular season are pretty low, but he has a chance to nab one of the two wildcard spots that are based on wins (as long as he is in the top 20 in points). Reutimann runs pretty well on the majority of the 1.5-mile ovals. If he can sneak a win or two out of the group of races at Chicago-Charlotte-Atlanta-Texas-Michigan, he has a punchers chance at making The Chase.

19. Jamie McMurray - #1 – Bass Pro Shops – Chevrolet - Earnhardt Ganassi Racing with Felix Sabates

His Epic 2010 Wins – McMurray became the third driver in history to win both the Daytona 500 and the Brickyard 400 in the same season, a stunning feat for a guy who wasn’t even sure he would have a ride going into the 2010 season. He added another win at Lowe’s Motor Speedway in October to double his career win total to 6.

Why Everyone is a Little Too Excited About Him – Everyone remembers McMurray winning the biggest races on the series, but people seem to forget that he didn’t even make The Chase (the addition of two wildcard spots based on wins is largely based on McMurray in 2010 and Kyle Busch in 2009). McMurray has never qualified for The Chase, and has never finished better than 11^th in the final seasons standings. Furthermore, there is certainly debate on whether or not he is the top driver on his own race team (Juan Montoya owns that title in my opinion). McMurray will certainly be competitive, but I don’t expect him to find the consistency that has been missing for his entire career.

18. Dale Earnhardt Jr. - #88 – AMP Energy – Chevrolet – Hendrick Motorsports

What More Needs to be Said? – Earnhardt Jr. has been the most written about drive in the sport for the last decade. He joined the premier team in NASCAR before the 2008 season, and only has one win to show for it. He has never lived up to the expectations that were put on him (rather unfairly) because of his father.

How to Save His Career – Dale Jr. needs to get out of Hendrick Motorsports. Hendrick is too squeaky clean and corporate, and Junior has never fit in. In a perfect world, he would end up driving a car for Richard Childress (the man who owned Dale Sr.’s car for six of his seven championships). Childress somehow found life in Jeff Burton (who looked washed up when he left Roush in the middle of the 2004 season), and could do the same for Dale Jr.

2011 Outlook – Dale always runs well at the restrictor plate tracks (you could put him in a GEO Metro and he’d figure out a way to run in the top 10 at Talladega), but expect more of the same struggles that have plagued him the last 2 ½ years everywhere else.

17. AJ Allmendinger - #43 – Best Buy – Ford – Richard Petty Motorsports

Why on Earth is AJ Allmendinger This High? – Allmendinger has the lowest floor/highest ceiling combination of any driver (even more so than his teammate at #22). I could see Allmendinger winning two or three races, finishing the regular season 8^th or so in the points, and making The Chase. I can just as easily see him struggling with poor equipment and limping home to a 28^th place points finish.

I Have Faith in Him Because… – …the guy drives his ass off. At the end of last season, when Richard Petty’s team didn’t know week to week whether it would be able to race due to a lack of funds, Allmendinger consistently ripped off great qualifying runs, as well as finishes inside the top 15. I’m banking on Petty’s close relationship with Roush, as well as the new Ford engine, to give Allmendinger a better shot at turning top-15s into top-10s. 

COULD BE CONTENDERS IF A FEW THINGS GO RIGHT

AKA THE RICKY RUDD DIVISION

16. Kasey Kahne - #4 – Red Bull – Toyota – Red Bull Racing

An Odd Arrangement – Kahne signed a contract last season to join Hendrick Motorsports starting in 2012, but didn’t have a place to put Kahne because he already had four drivers under contract for the 2011 season. This led to Kahne winding up at Red Bull Racing for the 2011 season. I can’t recall any other time in NASCAR history where an arrangement like this was made. It’s even more complicated by the fact that Kahne is driving a Toyota this season, and then will be in a Chevrolet next year. Will the folks at Toyota be willing to help Kahne out when they know he will be with a different manufacture next season? Time will tell.

What This Arrangement Would Be Like – Pretend for a minute that romantic relationships were set up by contracts. You sign a contract to date a girl, but unfortunately you can’t start dating her for another 14 months because she’s still obligated to another guy. So in the meantime, you set up a deal to date a girl for the next year with the knowledge that the relationship will end at the end of the year. Would that situation work? Probably not, which is why Kahne will be lucky to win a race this year.

15.  Jeff Burton - #31 – Caterpillar – Chevrolet – Richard Childress Racing

Claim to Fame – Is known in the NASCAR garage as “The Mayor”. If there’s an issue that you need to get an opinion on, you go to Jeff Burton and you will get one.

14. Martin Truex Jr. - #56 – Napa – Michael Waltrip Racing

Why He’s Ranked This High – After taking well over half of the season to get acclimated with his new team, Truex ran pretty well to finish the year. With a year under his belt, look for Truex to contend for wins and a shot at The Chase in 2011.

13. Joey Logano - #20 – Home Depot – Joe Gibbs Racing

Claim to Fame – Mark Martin nicknamed Joey Logano “Sliced Bread” when Logano was 14, implying that Logano would be the best thing since sliced bread.

Scary Fact – Logano is entering his 3^rd full-time season in Sprint Cup, and he isn’t even allowed to buy alcohol until May 24^th of this year.

When Will He Break Out? – It’s not a question of if Logano will win championships, but when. Jeff Gordon was the youngest driver to win the Cup series at the age of 24 in 1995. That was Gordon’s third full season in the Winston Cup series. Logano is entering his third year, but he didn’t have the seat time that Gordon had driving in lesser NASCAR series. I’d be willing to endorse a future bet on Logano winning the 2014 title, but for this season expect a couple of wins and a shot at making The Chase.

12. Juan Pablo Montoya - #42 – Target – Chevrolet - Earnhardt Ganassi Racing with Felix Sabates

Careers You Could Do With a Name Like Juan Pablo Montoya – Bullfighting, soap opera star, Calvin Klein model, secret agent, cocaine dealer, boxer, Cuban baseball player, prime minister of a Spanish speaking country, poker player, and last but not least, being an international race car driver.

Chances of Success in 2011 – Montoya’s fate hinges on whether or not he can stay out of trouble. Montoya had 7 DNFs last season that killed his chances of making The Chase. No race epitomized that better than last years Brickyard 400. Montoya dominated the race, but collided with Dale Earnhardt Jr. trying to get onto pit road, ending his shot at winning at Indianapolis. Montoya needs to work harder to keep all the fenders in one piece on his racecar.

COULD WIN THE WHOLE DAMN THING (HYPOTHETICALLY)

AKA THE DAVEY ALLISON DIVISION

11. Greg Biffle - #16 – 3M – Ford – Roush Fenway Racing

Fun Fact That Actually Isn’t True, But Would Be Fun If It Was – “Biffle” was one of the finalists for the name of a new cleaning device. “Biffle” eventually lost out to “Swiffer”.

Title Chances – Biffle has a punchers chance at winning the championship. Biffle has had success at most of the tracks in The Chase, so if he can get that far and stay out of trouble, he is a dark horse to win the 2011 championship.

10. Kurt Busch - #22 – Shell/Pennzoil – Dodge – Penske Racing

Claim to Fame – Won the first Chase back in 2004 while driving for Jack Roush.

Infamous Moment – After Jimmy Spencer’s crew overheard Busch making fun of Spencer on his radio, Spencer walked up to Kurt’s car after the race while Busch was sitting in it and punched him in the face. Busch suffered a broken nose, and has been poorly received by most fans ever sense.

Cosmetic Surgery – Busch’s ears used to stick out so far they actually created wind resistance while he was racing. All right, that’s an exaggeration, but the guy had huge ears. Being from Las Vegas, Busch had surgery a few years ago that basically resulted in the top of his ears being stapled to his head. This has resulted in him sort of looking like a relative of Mr. Spock.

9. Matt Kenseth - #17 – Crown Royal – Ford - Roush Fenway Racing

Claim to Fame – Won the last pre-Chase championship in 2003. Also won the Daytona 500 in 2009.

8. Clint Bowyer - #33 - Cheerios/Hamburger Helper – Chevrolet – Richard Childress Racing

Claim to Fame – Bowyer was given NASCAR’s version of the death penalty after winning the first race of The Chase last year at New Hampshire. The penalty given to his team for his car not meeting specifications eliminated Bowyer from having a shot at winning the championship.

2011 Outlook – I think Bowyer has a shot to have a very strong season. His team didn’t fold the tent after the penalty, and finished the 2010 season on a high note. Bowyer is also in a contract year, so he will be racing with added motivation (he’s the equivalent of drafting Prince Fielder in fantasy baseball this year). 

7. Denny Hamlin - #11 – Fed-Ex – Toyota – Joe Gibbs Racing

Claim to Fame – Became the first driver since Davey Allison to enter the last race of the season with the points lead, but end up not winning the championship (Allison got into a crash that was not his fault, and then sadly passed away in a helicopter crash the following summer).

Strange Business Deal – Denny Hamlin just signed an endorsement deal with the Jordan Brand. He easily becomes the least athletic person to endorse Michael Jordan’s products.

Will He Get Over 2010? – Hamlin looked like a balloon that lost all of its air when he was interviewed after the race at Homestead last year. It’s not everyday you have an opportunity to win a championship. To blow that chance takes sometime to get over. Will Hamlin have the fortitude to get over that disappointment and win the title in 2011? I would bet on him not doing it, but we’ll learn a lot about Denny Hamlin either way this season.

6. Tony Stewart - #14 – Mobil 1/Office Depot – Chevrolet - Stewart-Haas Racing

Claim to Fame – The only driver to win the championship during the Winston Cup era and during The Chase era.

Why He’s Awesome – Stewart is the closest thing we have to a good ol’ boy racer. Stewart would’ve fit in during the rough and tumble days of the ‘70s and ‘80s. Owning his own team hasn’t made him soft either, as shown by the altercation he got into with a track owner in Australia last month.

5. Kevin Harvick - #29 – Budweiser – Chevrolet – Richard Childress Racing

Sick Ride – If you haven’t seen Kevin Harvick’s new car for 2011, click here. It’s like they stuck a Budweiser logo on the front of the Batmobile. If points were decided by who had the coolest looking car, Harvick wins in a landslide.

Most Memorable Win – Harvick has won the Daytona 500 (in thrilling fashion, edging Mark Martin by a bumper) and the Brickyard 400, but none of those wins top his first career at Atlanta. In just his 3^rd race after being named the new driver to replace Dale Earnhardt, Harvick beat Jeff Gordon in a photo finish. It was one of the most electrifying moments in NASCAR history.

4. Kyle Busch - #18 – M&Ms – Toyota – Joe Gibbs Racing

Cool Tribute – Kyle Busch goes by the name “Rowdy Busch” when driving in the Truck Series in honor of the cult classic “Days of Thunder”.

3. Carl Edwards - #99 – Aflac – Ford – Roush Fenway Racing

Why He’s the Trendy Pick to Win the Championship – Edwards won the last two races of the 2010 season, which were his first wins since 2008.

Why He’s Cool – Because after he wins a race, he gets out of the car and does a back flip.

2. Jeff Gordon - #24 – Drive to End Hunger – Chevrolet – Hendrick Motorsports

Gordon’s Sponsor – When you are driving to fight hunger, you’re pretty damn motivated.

How He Can Beat Jimmie Johnson – Gordon has the best crew chief he has had since Ray Evernham left at the end of the 1999 season in Alan Gustafson. With a more technically savvy crew chief, Gordon should benefit from better late race adjustments that will keep him in contention for wins. More importantly, Gordon seems pretty pissed off that his handpicked protégé has more championships than him. I’m predicting 6 wins for Gordon, and the best chance at winning the title for a driver not named Jimmie Johnson. 

THE BORING FAVORITE

AKA THE JIMMIE JOHNSON DIVISION

1. Jimmie Johnson - #48 – Lowe’s – Chevrolet – Hendrick Motorsports

Why the Majority of Fans Boo Him at Races – If you were to list the five most popular NFL teams right now, in some order it would probably be Packers, Steelers, Cowboys, Patriots, and the Redskins. These franchises have a huge fan base, but what happens when they go on the road to play at a place like Philadelphia? They get booed.

            In NASCAR, there are no home games for any of the drivers (unless a track is located close to where a driver grew up, but even than at best half the crowd is pulling for the driver). Which leads to the people who are not huge Jimmie Johnson fans to loathe him, and take pleasure whenever he hits a wall or blows an engine.

Why You Can’t Rank Anyone Else Higher Than Him – Johnson is at a point where someone needs to beat him before you can even logically suggest that he is not the favorite (the never bet against Peyton Manning when he’s playing a night game rule is a similar situation). Sure the competition is as deep as it has ever been, been Johnson still has the best crew chief to ever sit on top of a pit box (the uber-asshole Chad Knaus, who at this point has accomplished enough where he has the right to be an asshole). As much as I would love to see someone knock him off the top, I’ll need to see it before I ever list Johnson lower than #1 on a list like this.