Pre-Chase Rankings

Field Filler

16. Paul Menard

            For proof that The Chase field is too large, look no further than Menard and his measly four top-10s this season.

15. Jamie McMurray

            Incredibly, this is the first time McMurray has ever made The Chase. He won’t stay in title contention very long.

14. Clint Bowyer

            Bowyer propelling his soon to be non-existent race team into the playoffs is a feat on it’s own.

13. Ryan Newman

            We love Newman, but the odds of him making another run like he did last year are remote.

I Don’t Think He Cares Anymore

12. Jeff Gordon

            Despite being in the midst of his worst season since his rookie year, Gordon has been smiling all over the place during his retirement tour. One of these days we’ll figure out at one point in the 2000s he stopped trying to be great.

They Have Speed, but Need to Get Hot

11. Carl Edwards

            Edwards has two wins this year, but one was by virtue of fuel mileage, and the other was on a track layout not like anything we’ll see in the final ten races. Furthermore, of all the winners this season, Edwards has the fewest top-5s and fewest top-10s.

10. Martin Truex Jr.

            Truex has cooled off considerably over the summer months, but with Dover and Loudon in the first round of The Chase, that could be a spring board for him returning to his early season form.

9. Denny Hamlin

            Hamlin has a decent track record of success at most of the tracks in the playoffs, and a win at Martinsville earlier in the year. If he makes it to the field of eight, Martinsville will give Hamlin his best chance of racing for the title at Homestead for the second year in a row.

You Can’t Count Them Out

8. Kurt Busch

            For a short time after his return from suspension, Busch was the only driver that could match Kevin Harvick’s consistency. That ability has waned over the summer, but Busch knows how to get it done in the playoffs and still has plenty of speed.

7. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

            Quietly, Junior has had the most consistent season of any of the Hendrick drivers in 2015. His dominance at the plate tracks this season bode well for him when the Sprint Cup returns to Talladega in October. His lack of Chase success is the only reason we don’t have him ranked in the top-5.

6. Brad Keselowski

            He’s third in top-10s, but Keselowski has just felt a little bit off all season. He’s let a couple of victories slip away, and hasn’t been able to match the level of performance on a week-to-week basis by his own teammate. Keselowski has won though at least one of the tracks in every round of The Chase, and is certainly capable of going on a hot streak.

5. Jimmie Johnson

            Johnson is tied for the most wins on the circuit, but he really hasn’t done much of anything since the spring. Summer swoons aren’t uncommon for Johnson, but Hendrick has fallen behind a few organizations in terms of overall speed for the first time in years. It’ll be a tall order for Johnson to earn his record tying seventh Cup title.

Our Final Four

4. Matt Kenseth

            Kenseth put an exclamation point on the regular season with a dominating run at Richmond. He has more momentum than anyone else in the garage.

3. Kyle Busch

            Kyle ripping off three straight wins in July to solidify his place in the playoffs was the most memorable run of the entire season. It will be interesting to see if he can overcome the demons of past postseason runs.

2. Joey Logano

            The Daytona 500 is second in both top-5s and top-10s to Kevin Harvick, and quietly is the most likely driver to knock Harvick off the throne.

1. Kevin Harvick

            Sure Harvick hasn’t won in a while, but his consistency has been remarkable. In 26 races, he’s posted 18 top-5s and 22 top-10s. We know he has Phoenix in the bag, so he is the most likely driver to be in the Final Four at Homestead.

2015 NASCAR Preview

At Daytona And Talladega We Have A Chance!

34. Ryan Blaney

            Blaney takes over for Trevor Bayne in the famous #21 Wood Brothers Ford. He’ll be running a partial schedule in Sprint Cup while running the full Xfinity Series slate for Roger Penske. The new alliance with Penske gives the #21 a better chance at respectability.

33. Casey Mears

            Keep cashing them checks Casey.

32. Justin Allgaier

            No Credentials really liked Allgaier when he was in Nationwide (now Xfinity). We’re bummed he never found a quality Cup ride.

31. David Reutimann

30. Cole Whitt

29. David Ragan

            It’s very strange that Front Row Motorsports was able to expand to three cars, while Roger Penske and Chip Ganassi only field two.

28. Danica Patrick

            In the last year of her contract with Stewart-Haas, Patrick is likely nearing the end of her NASCAR career.

27. Martin Truex Jr.

            He’ll be fast at the restrictor plate tracks, and field filler everywhere else.

26. Brian Vickers

            We’re pulling for Vickers after he underwent another heart operation during the off-season, but the troubles at Michael Waltrip Racing are likely to keep him mired in mediocrity.

25. Paul Menard

            Right along with Lake Speed’s win at Darlington in 1988, Menard’s 2011 Brickyard 400 victory ranks as one of the flukiest NASCAR results of all time.

Road Course Ringers (sadly, sans Ambrose and Montoya)

24. Sam Hornish

            For some reason Hornish is mentioned as a dark horse to win at a road course even though all of his Indy Car and Nationwide wins were on ovals.

           

23. A.J. Allmendinger

            Allmendinger delivered the moment of the year last year with his thrilling duel with Marcos Ambrose at Watkins Glen. He’s a good bet to notch another win at Sonoma or the Glen to make a second straight Chase.

Might Win a Race, Might Not

22. Tony Stewart

            We’re sticking a fork in the competitive NASCAR career of Tony Stewart.

21. Trevor Bayne

            It’s hard to believe Bayne won the Daytona 500, and even harder to believe that it took him four years to land a full-time Sprint Cup ride.

20. Kurt Busch

            If there were such an award for “Most Bizarre Legal Case”, crazy Kurt Busch against his physco ex-girlfriend would easily take top honors in 2015. 

19. Clint Bowyer

            No Credentials isn’t buying stock in MWR yet.

18. Kyle Busch

            We had Busch ranked second (mostly due to the changes in the Sprint Cup cars that make them more similar to Nationwide/Xfinity) before his brutal crash Saturday afternoon. There isn’t a great track record of success for guys that missed significant time due to injury, so this could be a lost year for him.

17. Austin Dillon

            Dillon was pretty vanilla in his rookie year, but we expect a slight rise to relevance at the super speedways in Dillon’s sophomore campaign.

16. Aric Almirola

            At times, Almirola was the most consistent Ford driver not employed by Roger Penske in 2014. We expect him to notch his first non-rain shortened victory this year.

15. Greg Biffle

            Biffle is the de facto leader of Roush Fenway Racing, which would be cool if Roush wasn’t a sinking ship.

14. Ryan Newman

            Newman nearly broke The Chase forever with his near championship winning run at Homestead last year. We don’t anticipate another remarkable run of consistency again, but we do predict Newman to return to victory lane.

13. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

            Stenhouse was abysmal last year, but he stands to gain from the Cup cars driving like the cars he piloted to two straight Nationwide titles in 2011 and 2012.

Inconsistent Wildcards

12. Jamie McMurray

            With all the big races McMurray was won over the years, it’s crazy that he has never made The Chase. That changes in 2015.

11. Kasey Kahne

            Hendrick Motorsports least inspiring driver should thank his lucky stars Jeff Gordon is retiring after this season, otherwise Chase Elliott would’ve been driving the five car next year instead.

10. Kyle Larson

            The most logical bet for a break through season, we’d be shocked if Larson didn’t win at least two races this year.

9. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

            Dale Jr.’s early returns look good after a strong showing in his Duel race Thursday night, but the real test will come when he needs to communicate adjustments to his new crew chief at Atlanta next week.

8. Denny Hamlin

            No one has Danica’s back more than Denny Hamlin.

Championship Contenders

7. Matt Kenseth

            Kenseth should at least return to victory lane, but we’re not forecasting a dominant season.

6. Jeff Gordon

            The Gordon retirement tour will be fun, but swan songs rarely if ever end with titles in any sport.

5. Kevin Harvick

            Harvick has a great chance of at least making the Final Four at Homestead with how good he is at Phoenix. That gives him a punchers chance at earning back-to-back titles.

4. Carl Edwards

            After doubting the high profile moves by Matt Kenseth and Kevin Harvick the last two years, we’re all in on Edwards in his debut season with Joe Gibbs Racing.

3. Jimmie Johnson

            2015 might be the last time we see Johnson paired with Crew Chief Chad Knaus if they don’t recapture some of their past magic.

The Favorites

2. Brad Keselowski

1. Joey Logano

            Penske Motorsports was the only team in the same league as Hendrick Motorsports last year, and both drivers should adjust to the rule changes based on their success in the Nationwide series. We’re forecasting that both will be in the Final Four, and one will end up hoisting the Sprint Cup.

NASCAR Pre-Chase Driver Ranks

            Every year before The Chase we rank who we feel has the most likely shot at hoisting the Sprint Cup. Keep in mind that this list doesn’t represent how we feel the final points will shake out, or who will be included in the Final 4 at Homestead. The new format makes it even harder to predict, as the winner take all finale will be one of the most ridiculous races in NASCAR history, but we’ve reviewed each round of the Chase, and the tracks that represent each driver’s best chances of advancing. Without further ado, our countdown to our pick to win the championship.

Complete and Utter Afterthoughts

16. A.J. Allmendinger

15. Aric Almirola

            Both earned well-deserved first career victories this year (with Allmendinger’s drive at Watkins Glen being the most dramatic finish of the season so far), but they have virtually no chance at winning the title. Almirola did run well at both Loudon and Dover earlier in the season (which are both in the first playoff segment), so there is the minute possibility he could sneak into the round of 12.

Happy to Be Here

14. Greg Biffle

13. Carl Edwards

            The demise of Roush-Fenway Racing has been well documented, and there’s no reason to expect a sudden revival during The Chase. Edwards is a lame duck driver, and Biffle has less Top-5s this season than Paul Menard. 

12. Ryan Newman

            Newman’s season has been just as uninspiring as Biffle’s, but at least he has been more competitive during the summer months. He does have three career wins at Loudon and Dover, which gives him a reasonable chance of making it to the round of 12. 

11. Kasey Kahne

            The greatest enigma of the entire NASCAR season has been Kahne’s inability to be consistently competitive this season. He needed a miraculous run at Atlanta just to be included in The Chase. If he can survive the first segment, Charlotte represents his best chance at cracking the Elite 8.

10. Denny Hamlin

            Hamlin has been more competent than you would think this season, as even with missing a race he would’ve made the playoffs without his win at Talladega. One can’t help but think he’s third on the Gibbs totem pole though.

Unpopular Dark Horses

9. Kyle Busch

8. Kurt Busch

            The Busch boys have only one win, both have occasionally had speed, and both have had an abundance of mechanical issues and crashes. We rank Kurt ahead of Kyle simply because the Hendrick powered Chevrolets have been stronger than the Gibbs Toyotas. 

Fatally Flawed

7. Matt Kenseth

            Kenseth is an honoree for hardest working driver of the year, as he’s tied for second in top-10s and tied for third in top-5s while piloting an underpowered Toyota Camry all year. Martinsville is the only track in the playoffs he has never won at, so it wouldn’t be a total shock to see him go on a run. Ultimately though, the lack of top end horsepower will do him in.

6. Kevin Harvick

            Happy Harvick has had fast cars all season long, but is saddled with the worst pit crew of any driver in the playoffs. His first year of the win was at Phoenix, so if he can repeat that feat he’ll be ticketed for the Final 4 at Homestead.

5. Jimmie Johnson

            With the exception of a stretch where he won three out of four just before the official start of summer, Six-Time has been riddled with tire issues all season. That could be the result of some experimenting by evil warlord crew chief Chad Knaus, but it just doesn’t feel like a championship season for Jimmie Johnson.

Stout Contenders

4. Joey Logano

            We’ve said it at least twice earlier this year, but it’s worth repeating…there really isn’t enough praise for a kid that’s only 24 years old being a legitimate championship contender. Logano has led laps in 18 of the 26 events this season, and has had speed everywhere. Other than his teammate, no one has more momentum than him going into the playoffs with Top-10 finishes in six of his last seven races.

3. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

            Junior’s performance this year has been a huge shot in the arm for the sport, and it’s safe to assume that he should be a force throughout the playoffs. He’s tied for the most Top-5s with Brad Keselowski, and there isn’t a track on the schedule that he shouldn’t have speed at. The only reason we don’t have him in the top tier is the fact that we haven’t seen him post a competitive Chase showing since the first one in 2004.

The Favorites

2. Brad Keselowski

            Keselowski has been a little boom or bust this season, but some of that can be attributed to risk taking after securing a Chase spot early in the season. Penske Racing has had the most consistent qualifying program on a weekly basis, giving Keselowski premium track position right from the get go. The only reason we have some reservations about Keselowski winning is the third slate of elimination races. He’ll be fast at Texas, but Phoenix and Martinsville aren’t his strongest tracks on the circuit. 

1. Jeff Gordon

            Gordon has driven like a man possessed this year, posting more Top-10s than any other driver, and for the first time in many years looking like a guy hungry to win a title. He’s had success at every track in The Chase, and most importantly, has a win at Homestead under his belt. There’s a chance that he’ll be the only driver in the Final 4 that can say that. We’re signing off on Gordon as our predicted winner of the 2014 Sprint Cup.

10 Awesome Things That Happened This Weekend (3/28-3/30)

10. Eagles Release DeSean Jackson
            Whether the rumors of DeSean Jackson’s alleged gang involvement are true, kudos to the Eagles for putting character over performance. Jackson was coming off a career year during his first season playing for Chip Kelly, and stands to be a valuable addition for whichever team picks him up.

9. Philadelphia 76ers Win an NBA Basketball Game

            This is only notable because they lost their previous 26 contests.

8. Angels Lock up Mike Trout
            Call me crazy, but the contracts given to Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera over the past few days feel like they should’ve been reversed.

7. Kentucky Peaks at the Perfect Time, Takes Down Louisville in Sweet 16
            We thought this would be Kentucky’s only appearance in this weekend review, but like the majority of our March Madness predictions, we were wrong.

6. Rick Grimes Bites A Dude’s Jugular on “The Walking Dead”

            Big news, Rick isn’t a pansy anymore!

5. Connecticut Stifles Spartans in Second Half, Advances to Final 4

            I thought Michigan State fell apart after the halftime recess, which is very strange for a team coached by Tom Izzo. At least we can feel happy for Connecticut now that Jim Calhoun is no longer their Head Coach.

4. Dayton’s Run Ends, Gators Reach Final 4

            Florida got to play one of the softer a slates a #1 seed has had to face in a long time, and in terms of seeding it stays easy when they face #7 Connecticut. The Huskies were the last team to beat the Gators all the way back in December.
         
3. The Outlaw Returns to Victory Lane
            For those not in the know, The Outlaw is Kurt Busch, who after two seasons racing for under-funded teams, showed he is still championship caliber with a pass of Jimmie Johnson with 10 laps to go.
         
2. Clutch 3 Puts Kentucky Into Final 4
            The Harrison twins have been a dynamic force the entire tournament, and an Aaron Harrison bomb with two seconds left doomed Michigan. They have more raw talent than any of the other Final 4 participants.

1. Wisconsin Takes Down #1 Seed Arizona in Overtime

            Wisconsin is normally known for an offense that sort of runs like a clogged toilet, but thanks to some talented big men, this isn’t your grandfather’s Badgers. They are in there first Final Four in 14 years, and they are my pick to win the whole thing, which probably means you should wager a shit load of money on Kentucky next Saturday.

2014 NASCAR Preview

            Normally we write about 10,000 words in our NASCAR preview, but you can thank a ridiculous week of winter weather for shrinking this piece down to 1,100. We rank the drivers in order of the best odds we give each of winning the Sprint Cup.

30. Trevor Bayne, #21 Motorcraft Ford, Wood Brothers

            It’s hard to believe that Trevor Bayne won the Daytona 500 three years ago, and still hasn’t managed to secure a full-time Cup ride.

29. Parker Kligerman, #30 Lending Tree Toyota, Swan Racing

            Kligerman is the rare combination of talented rookie and upstart team. Swan Racing has investors dumping money into it left and right, so it would be fun to see the 23-year old have some success this season.

28. David Ragan, #34 MHP Ford, Front Row Motorsports

            If this year’s “WIN OR GO HOME BITCH” playoff format were in place in 2013, Ragan would’ve been racing for the title when The Chase started. That’s a reason why this format won’t work.

27. Danica Patrick, #10 GoDaddy.com Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing

            After a listless first full season in Sprint Cup, it’s hard to forecast Patrick having success anywhere other than Daytona or Talladega.

26. A.J. Allmendinger, #47 Kroger Toyota, JTG Daugherty Racing

            It hasn’t taken nearly as long as most experts expected for Allmendinger to secure a full-time Sprint Cup ride. The 47 doesn’t usually have a lot of speed, but he’ll be pesky at Sonoma and Watkins Glen.

25. Paul Menard, #27 Menard’s Chevrolet, Richard Childress Racing

            Menard shockingly has competition for the title of “most notable trust fund child in Sprint Cup” from new teammate Austin Dillon.

24. Martin Truex Jr., #78 Furniture Row Chevrolet, Furniture Row Racing

            When everyone watches Truex struggle in the #78, we’ll get a true appreciation for how awesome Kurt Busch’s 2013 campaign really was.

23. Aric Almirola, #43 Smithfield Foods Ford, Richard Petty Motorsports

            I can’t name one notable thing Almirola has ever done since getting the keys to the #43.

22. Austin Dillon, #3 Dow Chemicals/Cheerios Chevrolet, Richard Childress Racing

            Dillon has talent, but just like Ricky Stenhouse Jr. last year, he will have growing pains. Remember that he didn’t even win a race last year in Nationwide despite winning the championship.

21. Jamie McMurray, #1 Bass Pro Shops/McDonalds Chevrolet, Ganassi Racing

            There isn’t anything my wife enjoys more during a NASCAR event than the sight of Jamie McMurray bawling in victory lane.

20. Brian Vickers, #55 Aaron’s Toyota, Michael Waltrip Racing

            Sort of like when an effective NBA reserve gets bumped up to starters minutes, we think Vickers will suffer a drop in “per-race” production.

19. Marcos Ambrose, #9 Stanley Ford, Richard Petty Motorsports

            The new playoff format gives Marcos Ambrose, who’s the most dominant road course racer of the last decade, a 50% chance of making The Chase.

18. Kyle Larson, #42 Target Chevrolet, Ganassi Racing

            Not since Kyle Busch has Sprint Cup had a rookie with as much raw talent as Kyle Larson. We wouldn’t be surprised at all if he stole a win at one of the short tracks.

17. Ryan Newman, #31 Caterpillar Chevrolet, Richard Childress Racing

            We’re happy Newman landed a full-time ride after getting the boot from Stewart-Haas Racing, but the #31 group has been struggling for years now.

16. Ricky Stenhouse Jr., #17 Best Buy/Zest Ford, Roush-Fenway Racing

            Mr. Patrick’s second half of 2013 gives plenty of reasons to be optimistic about his sophomore campaign.

15. Joey Logano, #22 Shell-Pennzoil Ford, Penske Racing

            His early season feud with Denny Hamlin last year (which ended up with Logano pulling a Bane and breaking Hamlin’s back in California) was one of the top five events of the 2013 season. It would do Logano some good to cut the drama, but we don’t think he’s at that point in his career yet.

14. Greg Biffle, #16 3M Ford, Roush-Fenway Racing

            The end of relevance for The Biff is coming.

13. Tony Stewart, #14 Mobil 1 Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing
            If anyone is going to come back from a busted leg and compete for wins it’s Tony Stewart, but we’re expecting some bumps in the road as he shakes the rust off.

12. Dale Earnhardt Jr., #88 National Guard Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            Evidently, if the new points format were in place last year, Dale Earnhardt Jr. would’ve won the 2013 title. Which is ironic, because he didn’t win a race.

11. Denny Hamlin, #11 Fed-Ex Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing

            I can honestly say I have no idea where to rank Hamlin. I had him at 15 before he won the race formerly known as the Bud Shootout and his qualifying race.

10. Kasey Kahne, #5 Farmers Insurance Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            Kahne jumps to the top of my list for a guy that benefits from a championship format mostly based on wins, as he’s never had the race to race consistency for point racing.

9. Kurt Busch, #41 Haas Automation Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing

            It took two years in NASCAR purgatory, but Kurt Busch is finally back with an elite team.

8. Kevin Harvick, #4 Budweiser Chevrolet, Stewart-Haas Racing

            The number and team are different, but we don’t expect a dramatic change in production from Harvick in his first year with Stewart-Haas.

7. Jeff Gordon, #24 Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            We think Gordon has one more serious championship run in him. A win based championship structure works in his favor.

6. Clint Bowyer, #15 5-Hour Energy Toyota, Michael Waltrip Racing

            The face of MWR’s manipulation of the regular season finale last year at Richmond, we actually expect Bowyer to contend for more wins now that his team has consolidated to two cars.

5. Brad Keselowski, #2 Miller Lite Ford, Penske Racing

            Sprint Cup’s 2012 champ had a miserable, snake bit regular season during his title defense, but a strong showing during the final ten races gives many reasons to believe he can return to a championship caliber level.

4. Matt Kenseth, #20 Home Depot Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing

            There’s typically a “runner-up hangover” for the driver that finishes second in the points the previous season, but the #20 car looks like it won’t skip a beat after winning a Duel race Thursday night.

3. Kyle Busch, #18 M&Ms Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing

            After Kasey Kahne, here’s our second driver the new format favors the most. He’s plenty capable of qualifying for each round of the playoffs with a win.

2. Carl Edwards, #99 Fastenal Ford, Roush-Fenway Racing

            No driver is better at Homestead than Carl Edwards, which gives him a decided advantage if he is in title contention going into the season finale.

1. Jimmie Johnson, #48 Lowe’s Chevrolet, Hendrick Motorsports

            It would be a severe case of tomfoolery to rank any other driver first as Johnson begins his quest for a record tying seventh championship.

2013 Chase for the Sprint Cup Predictions

            It’s bee one of the weirdest seasons in NASCAR history (punctuated by Michael Waltrip Racing’s dishonorable manipulation of the regular season finale. Good luck with no sponsors next year asshole), which has led to one of the more eclectic Chase fields in recent memory. We break down the 12-car field, plus discuss three bonus drivers who woulda-shoulda-coulda been in The Chase. 
 

He’d Be In The Chase, But He Broke His Leg

15. Tony Stewart - #14 Mobil/Bass Pro Shops Chevrolet – Stewart Haas Racing

            The 3-time champion (and the only man to win under the old and new points system) wasn’t a shoe-in for The Chase, but likely would’ve ended up with the second wildcard spot if it wasn’t for breaking his leg in a sprint car accident. He wouldn’t have been a favorite to win the title, but everyone (including Tony Stewart) was saying the same thing before his improbable 2011 run.
 

The Real Victim

14. Jeff Gordon - #24 – Hendrick Motorsports

            Lost in all the discussion about Ryan Newman replacing Martin Truex Jr. in The Chase is Jeff Gordon, who at the time of caution Saturday night was tenth in points, which would’ve secured a spot in The Chase. Don’t be surprised if we get a repeat of last November’s race at Phoenix multiple times during The Chase.

 

It Wasn’t His Fault

13. Martin Truex Jr. - #56 Napa Toyota – Michael Waltrip Racing

            Maybe Truex knew there was a plan before the race to help get him in. Maybe he didn’t. Regardless, he drove his ass off to keep Jeff Gordon behind him in the closing laps, and didn’t appear to have any knowledge of why the caution came out. His team deserved the penalty, but it sucks for the driver who had nothing to do with bringing out the caution.
   

Karma is a Bitch

12. Clint Bowyer - #15 5-Hour Energy Toyota – Michael Waltrip Racing

Tied for 8^th in Chase Seeding With 0 Wins
            The only person happy with Clint Bowyer is Kyle Busch, and that’s because there’s finally someone that NASCAR fans will boo louder than him during pre-race introductions.

Happy to Be Here

11. Greg Biffle - #16 3M Ford – Roush Fenway Racing

Tied for 6^th in Chase Seeding With 1 Win
            Roush is going to put all of its eggs in the Carl Edwards basket.

10. Dale Earnhardt Jr. - #88 AMP Energy Chevrolet – Hendrick Motorsports

Tied for 8^th in Chase Seeding With 0 Wins
            Not since the inaugural Chase has Dale Earnhardt Jr. been relevant in it. We don’t forecast anything different this year.

9. Kurt Busch - #78 Furniture Row Chevrolet – Furniture Row Racing

Tied for 8^th in Chase Seeding With 0 Wins
            Kurt making it in with Furniture Row Racing will be the second most impressive thing accomplished in NASCAR this season, only topped by whoever wins the title.
 

Punchers Chance at Making Noise

8. Kasey Kahne - #5 Farmers Insurance Chevrolet – Hendrick Motorsports

Tied For 8^th in Chase Seeding With Wildcard Entry
            Flopping from one of the fastest cars onto the track to hovering around mid-pack from week to week is not a formula for success. It’s not impossible for Kahne to string together ten solid races in a weakened Chase field, but we won’t bet on it.

7. Kevin Harvick - #29 Budweiser Chevrolet – Richard Childress Racing
Tied For 4^th in Chase Seeding With 2 Wins
            We’ll stand behind our theory we applied last season to Matt Kenseth about a lame duck driver not having a chance in The Chase.

6. Ryan Newman - #39 Quicken Loans/Outback Steakhouse Chevrolet – Stewart Haas Racing

Tied For 8^th in Chase Seeding With Wildcard Entry
            He’s riding a solid wave of one part momentum and one part good will, but he won’t be able to avoid the lame duck stink in the end.

5. Joey Logano - #22 Shell-Pennzoil Ford – Penske Racing
Tied For 6^th in Chase Seeding With 1 Win
            Throw out his middling performance at Richmond (which thankfully, is a type of track he won’t see in The Chase) and Logano was the hottest driver during the month of August. He’ll have speed at the 1.5 milers, but you should expect some inexperience to bite him in the end.
 

The Favorites

4. Matt Kenseth - #20 Home Depot Toyota – Joe Gibbs Racing

1^st in Chase Seeding With 5 Wins
            Throw out his Bristol win, and it’s been a fairly ordinary summer for Kenseth. He’ll be in the mix, but needs to recapture his early season form to win the championship.

3. Jimmie Johnson - #48 Lowe’s Chevrolet – Hendrick Motorsports

Tied For 2^nd in Chase Seeding With 4 Wins
            Jimmie Johnson’s last four finishes of 28th or worse are not fooling me. Johnson will be in the mix until Homestead.

2. Carl Edwards - #99 Subway/Fastenal/UPS/Kellogg’s Ford – Roush Fenway Racing

Tied For 4^th in Chase Seeding With 2 Wins
            Quietly, Edwards was the point’s leader at the end of the NASCAR regular season. In a diminished Chase field, a consistent ten races might be enough for Cousin Carl to win his first championship.

 

The Favorite  

1. Kyle Busch - #18 M&Ms Toyota – Joe Gibbs Racing

Tied For 2^nd in Chase Seeding With 4 Wins
            I get it. Busch has never done anything in The Chase. In fact, it’s been mostly embarrassing. However, he has too much talent, and among the favorites, the most momentum after a solid summer. There’s no Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, Jeff Gordon, or Brad Keselowski to deal with. If he out performs the three drivers we just mentioned, it’s his championship. He normally flames out early in The Chase, so it won’t take long to see if our prediction is correct.

Mid-Season NASCAR Power Rankings

Don’t Ask Him to Pee in a Cup

35. A.J. Allmendinger

            A.J. literally pissed his chances of a legitimate Sprint Cup career away, barring a miraculous B-sample test result.

Completely, Utterly, Irrelevant

34. David Stremme

33. Dave Blaney
32. David Reutimann
31. Landon Cassill
30. Travis Kvapil
29. David Gilliland
28. Casey Mears
            This group has accomplished only two noteworthy things this season. Dave Blaney was the leader of the Daytona 500 when Juan Pablo Montoya took out the jet dryer (which resulted in Blaney being a trending topic on Twitter, which is reason #112 the Mayans might be on to something). David Reutimann drove his decrepit racecar around one lap too long at Martinsville, stopped on the front straightaway, and fucked up a classic duel between Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon. Other than that, nothing to see here.

Incredibly, These Guys Won a Race Last Year

27. David Ragan

            It’s really hard to look at David Ragan and not feel bad for the guy. Going from Roush Fenway to Front Row Motorsports is like going from Hawaii to North Korea.

26. Regan Smith

            Sadly, the fortunes of Smith have taken a turn for the worse in 2012. His average finish is down 3 spots, and he’s only finished on the lead lap 1/6^th of the races (he accomplished that just over half the time last season). Someone needs to pump some R&D dollars into Furniture Row Racing.

Modern Day 1990’s Version of Darrell Waltrip

25. Bobby Labonte

            Sometime in the late-90s, a sportswriter asked Darrell Waltrip why he was still hanging around, ruining his reputation and making everyone forget that he was once a championship-winning driver. His reply? “Can’t quit, money’s too good.” I’m guessing Bobby Labonte would have a similar answer to that question.

Keeping the Seat Warm for Somebody

24. Aric Almirola

            Joey Logano. Ryan Newman. Kurt Busch. All three of those drivers are significantly more talented than Almirola, and all three could be available to drive the flagship car for Dodge next season. Almirola better be ready for a start and park gig next year.

Used to be Relevant (Emphasis on “Used”)

23. Jamie McMurray

            Two years ago, McMurray won both the Daytona 500 and the Brickyard 400. This season, his best finish is seventh, and he only has two other finishes inside the top-10. The equipment at Earnhardt-Ganassi isn’t cutting the mustard.

22. Jeff Burton

            No Credentials predicts that Jeff Burton will officially enter the D.W. 1990s version point of his career in 2013. He’s washed up, and it’s time for Richard Childress to find a new driver for the 31.

21. Juan Pablo Montoya

            I could wax poetic about the struggles of Montoya, but instead let’s post the video of the jet dryer he crashed into exploding.

2004-05 Jeremy Mayfield Impersonator, Minus the Crystal Meth Addiction

20. Paul Menard

            Jeremy Mayfield’s most noteworthy career accomplishment will be making the first two Chase’s by hammering out mediocre top-15 finishes week after week. Menard has been following a similar plan, but unfortunately the field is much deeper now.

Drives His Ass Off

19. Kurt Busch

            Kurt Busch has done quite a few noteworthy things in his year of purgatory. He gave his brother Kyle his first Nationwide win as an owner. Busch brought James Finch Racing to victory lane at Daytona in July (which even though it was Nationwide, was still a major David vs. Goliath moment in the world of auto racing). Most impressively, he wheeled a car with a broken suspension to a third place finish at Sonoma (which in case you forget, is one of two tracks that features right turns). Unfortunately, the following run-in with a reporter will severely hinder Busch’s chances of landing a top-flight ride in 2013.

Frisky at Certain Locations

18. Marcos Ambrose

            Ambrose has shown tremendous progress on ovals this season, but the egg he laid at Sonoma will prevent him sneaking in to The Chase.

17. Ryan Newman

            Newman is only nine points out of the second wild card heading into the Brickyard 400, but his unsettled future makes No Credentials feel like he has no chance of making it. Newman has no contract for next season with Stewart-Haas.

16. Joey Logano

            Logano appears to have done enough to keep a seat at Joe Gibbs Racing (the only reason Matt Kenseth’s deal with Gibbs hasn’t been announced is because they are still finalizing Logano’s sponsorship package), and the next two races will be his best chance at sneaking into a wildcard spot. He dominated the first Sprint Cup race at Pocono (which the series will return to the first Sunday in August), and success there usually translates to a good run at Indianapolis. If he sweeps both races, he’ll be in The Chase.

3-Headed Monster

15. Mark Martin/Brian Vickers/Michael Waltrip

            If you added up all of the points the drivers of the #55 have earned, they would currently be twelfth in points. We haven’t seen anything like this in Sprint Cup in years. 

Flop of the Year

14. Carl Edwards

            I had a feeling this season would play out like this for Cousin Carl, but didn’t have enough intestinal fortitude to rank him this low before the season. Edwards has only led one lap at a track other than Richmond this season. Maybe next year he can get Matt Kenseth’s personal to give him a boost.

Worse Luck Than the 1980 Soviet Union Hockey Team

13. Jeff Gordon

            Ending up on his roof in the Budweiser Shootout was only the beginning of a maddening season for Gordon. Unlike Carl Edwards, Gordon has led his fair share of laps, and has been in contention to win on multiple occasions. Crashes, equipment failure, and bad breaks have bit the former Boy Wonder like never before. Folks still believe in him, but his days of ripping off multiple wins in a short time span are about eight years behind him. The Brickyard 400 is a must win for him.

Will Probably Make the Chase, but Won’t be Factors

12. Martin Truex Jr.

            Truex looked like a sure bet to reach victory lane just over a month ago, but has tailed off since. Of the drivers currently in the top 10, he would appear to be the most likely to drop out.

11. Kevin Harvick

            Richard Childress Racing just hasn’t had the speed this season (see the performance of Jeff Burton and Paul Menard for proof). Harvick has done a brilliant job of getting the Budweiser Chevrolet safely into the top 10 in points, but that won’t be enough to bring home a championship. Fortunately, Harvick still has his way with words.

Will Make the Chase, and Then Choke Like He Does Every Year

10. Kyle Busch

            For all of Kyle Busch’s success, do you realize he has only won once during the NASCAR playoffs? He desperately needs a win to secure a spot in this year’s Chase.

Legitimate Championship Contenders

9. Clint Bowyer

            The lead dog for emerging MWR, who would of thought that Bowyer would actually be increasing his title chances by leaving Richard Childress? Bowyer is the best dark horse bet to win the championship.

8. Greg Biffle

            Biffle has had a fantastic bounce back season after a frustrating 2011. His struggles at three of the Chase venues (Loudon, Martinsville, and Phoenix) are why he’s ranked so low.

7. Matt Kenseth

            Kenseth is still leading the points, but No Credentials has a hard time believing that his lame duck status with Roush won’t begin to have an impact on the success of the 17 car.

6. Dale Earnhardt Jr.

            Junior’s resurgence this season has been huge for the sport, but similar to Kyle Busch, Junior has never had a great deal of success come playoff time. He won two races in the inaugural Chase back in 2004, but hasn’t reached victory lane since.

5. Denny Hamlin

            No Credentials pre-season pick to win hasn’t been too bad this season, but Gibbs just seems to be a hair off on the mile and a half ovals this season.

4. Brad Keselowski

            If the Chase started right now, Keselowski would be tied for first with Tony Stewart thanks to his series high three wins. He’ll be a monster next season when Penske makes the switch from Dodge to Ford.

3. Tony Stewart

            Stewart has been all or nothing this season, seemingly finishing in either the top-3 or in the twenties every week. His epic 2011 title run would suggest that perhaps Stewart has been experimenting a bit this season in an effort to secure more bonus points for the Chase. I wouldn’t be surprised if Stewart began ripping off top-5s week after week in the fall.

2. Kasey Kahne

            His luck in the beginning of the season was abysmal, but Kahne has roared to life since May. Kahne has the speed this year. It’s just a matter of him keeping the car in one piece. No Credentials feels safe suggesting that Kahne will win one of the next five championships.

The Favorite

1. Jimmie Johnson

            Johnson didn’t get off to a sterling start this year either (thank Elliott Sadler and his crooked crew chief, the Evil Dr. Chad Knaus for that), but quietly Johnson has been the most consistent driver since the clocks sprung ahead. The only chink in his armor would appear to be his shoddy pit crew, but we know that Rick Hendrick is willing to swap crews in the name of winning when it matters most (remember Hendrick made the call to switch Jeff Gordon’s pit crew with Johnson’s back in the final race of the 2010 season). It’s Johnson’s championship to lose.

Classic NASCAR Crash of the Week - Michigan

Here's solid proof of why Todd Bodine and Kenny Wallace never had a successful Cup career.



No Credentials Quick Takes, Volume I

            For those of you that missed the update in the season’s final weekend review, real-life has gotten in the way of No Credentials. Two weeks of training for a new job away from home will result in two things.

1. I’ll probably weigh 600 pounds on Father’s Day after all the take out I’ve been eating.
2. When I’m stationed at a hotel, I don’t have Internet access (a laptop hasn’t been fit into the No Credentials budget), so in the two or three days I’m spending away from home at a time, there will be no updates.

          Have no fear though. During each day off I have for the remainder of my training time, I will quickly hit the biggest sports stories of that timeframe. For marketing purposes, we’ll name them “No Credentials Quick Takes”.

On the Oklahoma City Thunder…

            Before the series, everyone thought San Antonio would overwhelm the Thunder with their depth. In game 6, San Antonio only played seven people. Sometimes, depth can be overrated. The Thunder clearly had the best two players in the series (Durant and Westbrook), and the fourth or fifth best player in James Harden. Oklahoma City will be the heavy favorite to win the NBA Finals, regardless of their opponent.

On the Celtics-Heat…

            I wish I could say I saw this coming, but I predicted Miami to win in 5 (oops!). Rajon Rondo has been the second best player in this series (behind Lebron James), which has tilted the balance in Boston’s favor. Even when his shot failed him in Game 5, he still was providing quality looks for his teammates. With Chris Bosh either out or playing minimal minutes, there has been little help for Lebron and Dwyane Wade. Those two combined for 57 points last night, but the lack of a quality supporting cast continues to bite them. Chris Bosh will have to play at a high level for Miami to have any chance of pushing this series to seven games.

On the Stanley Cup Finals…

            New Jersey’s game 4 victory is only delaying the inevitable. I said Kings in 6 (followers of this blog’s Facebook page can confirm that), and that prediction will be accurate.

On Kent Hrbek Going Off For 2 Dingers and 6 RBIs…

            All right this one happened in TECMO Super Baseball on my Super Nintendo, not real life, but regardless it was noteworthy. Hrbek had been struggling during the first 25 games of the season with his average below the Mendoza Line, but all it took was a date with Bill Wegman (who got rocked for 14 earned in 3 innings, ouch) to bust out of his slump. I’m going to end this paragraph before I officially lose touch with reality.

On Tiger Woods…

            The last time Tiger won a golf tournament it was shortly before The Masters. Everyone assumed that Tiger would be the favorite to win. He finished behind 39 other golfers in the final standings. His win at The Memorial comes two weeks before the U.S. Open, and now everyone wants to make him the favorite in that tournament. Everyone needs to take a cold shower before they assume Woods is going to win the U.S. Open by ten strokes.

On Kurt Busch Going Bonkers…

            I’ll say this for Kurt Busch…the dude doesn’t give a f*** for nothing. His line to a reporter after the Nationwide race in response to a question about his probation should go down as one of the greatest NASCAR interview moments of all time. I have a hard time believing this suspension will hurt his chances of landing a top ride next season (he’s too talented, and secondly, his status as a past champion would give a car owner the opportunity to expand to four teams and have the security of a past champion’s provisional), but landing sponsorship for him just became that much harder. I’d be willing to bet that he ends up at Joe Gibbs Racing with Monster Energy paying the bills.

On Dudes Getting High on Bath Salts and Then Eating Other Dudes Faces…

            A second case of this occurred in Louisiana, just a week or two after some guy ate 75% of a homeless mans face in Florida. Has this been happening for years, but the media is only covering it after the success of “The Walking Dead”? I’d like to formally request a nationwide ban on Bath Salts before my wife decides to fully zombie proof our apartment.

           

           

No Credentials "Mailbag" 5-18-12

            As usual, these may or may not be actual messages from real or fake people.

Assuming that the Mayans are on to something, what are the best signs that the end of days will be upon us soon? – Edgar, Lynn, MA

            Here’s two clear events that might lead you to plan you finances so you have $0 in your bank account on December 21^st, 2012.

2. Kanye West dating Kim Kardashian – If these two create offspring, we’re dead. We’re all DEAD.

1. Dick Clark died – Assuming that the Mayans are right, I’m guessing this conversation happened shortly before Clark passed away.

God: It’s your time.

Clark: I can’t leave yet! That’ll leave Seacrest all alone on New Year’s Eve. He’ll ruin the show!
God: The world is going to explode 10 days before New Year’s Eve this year. You won’t have to worry about that.
Clark: Well if that’s the case, can I listen to Robert Johnson in Heaven?
God: You can download him on Lord-Tunes, but you can’t see him live. He went straight to Hell.

So Mariano Rivera is indestructable for parts of 3 decades, but his replacement can’t even stay upright for two weeks? Tony, Riverhead, NY

            Whenever an unusually durable athlete does down to an injury, the replacement always goes down with an ailment of his own shortly after. A similar thing happened when Brett Favre’s consecutive games streak came to an end in 2010. Tavaris “The Virus” Jackson tore a knee ligament the next week.

(EDITORS NOTE: In a year that MLB instituted a second wildcard in an attempt to insure that the Yankees and Red Sox make the playoffs, isn’t it funny that the odds of both squads making it this year are very low? Both team's bullpens are suspect. Boston’s starting pitching has been inconsistent, while New York’s aging offense has been sputtering (with the exception of Derek Jeter, who figured out that ditching Minka Kelly was the key to restoring his power stroke). The only saving grace for both teams has been the struggles of the Angels, who No Credentials predicted would be a shoe-in for one of the two Wildcard spots (I’m not giving up on them yet. It’s still way to early to count out any team, assuming they don’t play in Kansas City, Minnesota, Seattle, Oakland, Houston, Chicago, or San Diego), are five games under .500 at the time of this writing.

Justin Bieber says he has “had a beer”. What brand do you think it was? Tasha, Harrison, ME

            What a great question. Let’s rank the top-5 candidates in reverse order.

5.  Mike’s Hard Lemonade

4.  Molson Canadian (he's from Canada after all)
3. Smirnoff Triple Raspberry Lemon Shake w/hint of Pineapple (guessing this is a custom beverage Smirnoff made for the Bieb)
2. Skyy Blue
1. Labatt Blue

Who do you have winning the Preakness? – Abigail, Red Rock, TX

            I want to stay loyal to I’ll Have Another, but facing a small field with very few sprinters, Bodemiester should have an easier go of it. He won’t need to try to set a land-speed record in the first half of the race, and should have plenty left in the tank coming down the stretch. 

Still trying to wrap my head around how Chris Bosh makes such a huge difference for the Miami Heat. Sam, Epping, NH

            Anyone that knows anything about basketball would never argue that Chris Bosh is the second best player on the Miami Heat. However, one could make a case that he’s the second most valuable player the Heat have. The similar skill sets of Lebron James and Dwyane Wade make it hard for them to function together in the same play (unless it’s a fast break). More often than not, one of them gets the ball at the top of the key and runs a pick-and-roll with a Miami big (when healthy, that big would be Bosh) while the other stands on the side and watches from the 3-point line. With Bosh out, whoever is setting the screen for James/Wade is not a consistent threat to score in a pick-and-roll. This allows the opposing big men to clog the lane and shut down drives to the basket. Miami’s half-court offense has morphed into the basketball equivalent of a poop sandwich without Bosh.
            The secret to solving this problem? Run James and Wade in the pick and roll together (if Lebron bitches about playing the 4, tell him to shut the fuck up), surround them with Chalmers and whichever stiff you want to plug in at small forward (I’ll vote for Shane Battier over Mike Miller and James Jones) on the wings, with Joel Anthony on the backside to hit the offensive glass (not that he could catch an offensive rebound, he’s much more likely to fumble it out of bounds). The most likely outcomes of running this offense would be a drive to the basket or a wide open 3. Let’s make sure Coach Spo doesn’t see this paragraph until the Heat are eliminated by the Pacers.      

How much do you have to like hockey to give a shit about Kings-Coyotes? – Ed, Manchester, VT

            I’ll grade myself a slightly above average fan of hockey (I play fantasy hockey, that earns me the above average tag), and I’m struggling to care about this one. Anything involving Phoenix makes it hard to take seriously, espeically when you have a throwback match-up in the Eastern Conference.

Who wins a fight, Axl Rose or a pissed off Kurt Busch? – George, Hickory, NC

            This one would definitly be a lightweight division battle. Kurt is certainly a volitale personality, but all of his abuse has been verbal. Axl’s willingness to throw a fist or two gives him the edge.

"Its black and white". Translation - its obvious, crystal clear, incontrovertible, fact. I understand the statement. I often use it.

           So now I give you my problem (question). Why is it black and white? Is it because they are equal and exact opposites? If that were the case why would we not say "its positive and negative" IE battery terminals? And if we are basing this on black and white being equal and exact opposites we must take into consideration that black isn't a color and as we all know white is. ( We could debate that statement until I was blue and you were red in the face) Or is it because we look at it like words on a page? Something written in a "matter of fact" way? If this is the case, could we say "blue (ink) and yellow (paper)"? Walk into any Staples and shop around the Post It and Sharpie section and we might be saying "Its pecker pink and pumpkin orange". But maybe that wouldn't have the impact the user was looking for.
          And what if your colorblind? I guess in that case white, blue, black or yellow don't apply. Ultimately Wrench, what I'm asking is why is it "black and white". And please don't tell me its obvious, crystal clear, incontrovertible or fact. – Ryan B., Kearsarge, NH
          I think there were 16 questions in the previous two paragraphs. For fear of drifting too far into a gray area, we’ll let the question stand on it’s own. Until next time…