Here’s
our second installment in our NBA mid-season review. If you missed the first
one,
click here. Today we discuss the teams that
in the interest of their long-term outlook should lose the rest of their games.
We group teams in this category if they either have no realistic chance at
winning the NBA title, or no other motivations to win games (an example would
be a team that doesn’t have the rights to it’s first round pick this June).
Before we
list the teams, let’s discuss the reason so many clubs should want to end up in
the lottery. To put it in laymen’s terms…the 2014 draft class is fucking
loaded. No Credentials ranks the top eight players on the board as guys that if
they were in last year’s class, should’ve been the top ranked prospect. Here are
the guys that everyone should be tanking for, as currently ranked by ESPN’s
Chad Ford.
- Joel
Embiid, C, Kansas = Embiid has flown up draft boards across the country,
with some feeling he has the ceiling to eventually be the next Hakeem
Olajuwon. At worst, he’s the next Dikembe Mutombo.
- Andrew
Wiggins, SG, Kansas = Best compared to a new version of pre-injury Tracy
McGrady, he’s the guy No Credentials would take first.
- Jabari
Parker, SF, Duke = Reminds me of a Carmelo Anthony type player, who can
also be adequate as a small-ball four. He’ll be the favorite for rookie of
the year next year.
- Dante
Exum, PG, Australia = He’s 6-6 and can play both guard spots if necessary.
If I were running the Celtics and knew for sure I would be getting Exum in
the draft, I’d trade Rondo in a nanosecond.
- Julius
Randle, PF, Kentucky = Randle is the player who’s slipped the most from
his preseason ranking, but he’s still a guy that could easily average a
double-double in the NBA.
- Marcus
Smart, PG, Oklahoma State = The rare sophomore that has actually improved
his draft status by returning for a second year in school. I’ll compare
Smart to a young Deron Williams (emphasis on young, not the ankle twisting
bum that has ruined two of my fantasy basketball teams in the last three
years).
- Aaron
Gordon, PF, Arizona = Gordon is referenced by Chad Ford as “a virtual
clone of Blake Griffin”. Last time I checked, Griffin was the first pick
in a draft, and is pretty damn good at playing basketball.
- Dario
Saric, PF, Croatia = Saric has the rare combo of being 6-10 and having
point-guard level passing skills. If he improves his jump shot, we could
be talking about a future offensive juggernaut.
So suffice it to say, if you’re in the top 8,
chances are you’re ending up with a building block for a championship
contender.
10. Dallas Mavericks
26-20, 8th in Western Conference
Good News = Dirk Nowitzki is back after an injury
plagued 2012-13.
Bad News = Unless Monte Ellis is feeling it, no one
other than Dirk can score.
What They Should Do = Looking at this
roster, it’s hard to believe that Dallas is above .500 playing in the
ridiculous Western Conference. It’s truly a testament to the coaching of Rick
Carlisle and the greatness of Dirk Nowitzki. Mark Cuban has infamously whiffed
in his efforts to pair a marquee player with Dirk over the past few years
(although his incompetence did pay off when Deron Williams chose to re-up with
the Nets), but this off-season stands to be different. Dirk will be an
unrestricted free agent, and there are whispers that he could give the
Mavericks a hometown discount. Couple that with some larger contracts coming
off the books (Shawn Marion for $9.3 millions, Vince Carter for $3.2 million),
and Dallas should again have the cash flow to pursue a marquee free agent. To
that end, tanking to insure they get a lottery pick to bolster their 2014-15
core would make more sense than fighting for an eighth seed and getting swept
in the first round. Marion or Carter would be interesting options for playoff
contenders looking to add depth, and could add a couple of second round picks.
Dallas doesn’t have the pieces to pull off a big time trade, so a ‘Melo type
trade for Dallas is unlikely. In the end, I think Dallas will be stubborn and
stick with what they have until the bitter end.
12. Memphis Grizzlies
22-20, 9th in Western Conference
Good News = No one in the West plays better defense
than Memphis, and they’ve treaded water without Marc Gasol.
Bad News = Only Utah plays worse offense, and they
have very little perimeter scoring.
What They Should Do = Memphis is the last team in the
NBA playing like Pat Riley’s old Knicks teams in the early ‘90s. Unfortunately,
that style of play will no longer get you to the NBA Finals. Barring a miracle
trade for a premier wing player, the Grizzlies aren’t going anywhere fast. It’s
a proud bunch, so I don’t expect them to begin tanking games, but that would be
the smart thing to do.
13. Phoenix Suns
26-18, 7th in Western Conference
Good News = No team in the league (Trail Blazers
included) has exceeded expectations more than the Phoenix Suns. Jeff Hornacek
might be one of the eight best coaches in the league already.
Bad News = Eric Bledsoe is out for another month.
What They Should Do = It’s great having the Suns back
as an entertaining basketball team. Bledsoe was getting the majority of the
publicity before he went down, but it’s been the exceptional play of Goran
Dragic that has taken Phoenix to another level. The Suns are one of the few
playoff contending clubs in the league that have cap space, and they are also
blessed with Emeka Okafor’s $14.5 million expiring contract. Theoretically,
they could trade for a max player today. The best news of all for Phoenix is
their strength in the 2014 draft. While currently they wouldn’t have a lottery
pick, there’s a chance they will have four picks in the first round (Phoenix
needs to the Timberwolves to make the playoffs so their pick isn’t protected
for the Suns to land a fourth pick. Their other two selections are coming from
Washington and Indiana). Losing to put their own pick in the lottery makes the
most logical sense, but long term Phoenix has a bright future whether or not they
end up with a top-10 selection.
14. Denver Nuggets
22-21, 10th in Western Conference
Good News = After looking clueless for the first
month, rookie coach Brian Shaw has finally settled on a relatively consistent
rotation.
Bad News = Danilo Gallinari is done for the year,
leaving a gaping hole at small forward.
What They Should Do = One of the few No Credentials
pre-season predictions that has rung true so far, Denver looks to be heading to
the lottery for the first time in many years. JaVale McGee’s contract extension
looks like a disaster so far, as the team has actually done better since he got
hurt. Not to sound like a broken record, but just like the other Western teams,
it makes more sense to lose and increase your ping-pong balls than fight for the
right to get slaughtered in the first round. Denver has numerous low-cost
assets that could net them some future draft picks if they choose to move them.
15. Toronto Raptors
23-21, 4th in Eastern Conference
Good News = Toronto immediately improved after
trading Rudy “The Brick Layer” Gay.
Bad News = There’s very little chance they end up
with Canadian prodigy Andrew Wiggins.
What They Should Do = Our first Eastern team on this
list is the perfect time to discuss an issue that will hamper every team in the
conference to tank. Toronto would be tenth in the West right now, but in the
pathetic East they are the fourth best team. It’s ridiculous. Even if Toronto
tried to lose the rest of their games, they wouldn’t be able too. This
ultimately will play a role in whether or not they trade Kyle Lowry, who is far
and away their most tradeable asset. Lowry is cheap (only costs $6.2 million
this year), talented (he’s been carrying the team since Rudy Gay left town),
and his contract expires after the season. Other than Oklahoma City, every
other championship contending team in the league would have to think about
sending a first round pick to Toronto for his services. Ultimately, we expect
the Raptors to stand pat and enjoy being a playoff participant.
16. Atlanta Hawks
23-20, 3rd in Eastern Conference
Good News = Jeff Teague has raised his level of
production, and Paul Millsap has proven to be one of the best free agent
bargains.
Bad News = Al Horford is out with a torn pectoral
muscle, and is unlikely to return even if Atlanta makes it to the playoffs.
What They Should Do = Stuck in the same scenario as
Toronto, Atlanta will also likely do little around the deadline, which is a
damn shame because this team is built to trade. Horford is the only player
making more than $10 million a year, and rest of the roster is a combo of short
and economical contracts. Kyle Korver, Louis Williams, and Elton Brand all have
skill sets that would be attractive to contending clubs.
18. Chicago Bulls
22-21, 5th in Eastern Conference
Good News = Tom Thibeadeau is the best coach in the
NBA, and is getting everything he can out of a stripped down roster.
Bad News = They are still winning games despite the
loss of Derrick Rose to injury and Luol Deng to a trade with Cleveland.
What They Should Do = Chicago is living evidence of
why it’s so difficult for an Eastern Conference team to lose games on purpose
this year. Even without Rose and Deng, they are 7-3 in their last ten games.
Here are a couple of things the Bulls could do to make their roster even worse
this year in the efforts of landing a marquee free agent this summer and
landing a higher draft pick.
- Amnesty
Carlos Boozer – Boozer has a player option for next year that he will
likely exercise (his days of being worth near-max money were over four
years ago, which ironically enough is around the time he signed with
Chicago), making it very difficult for Chicago to trade him. Cutting him
now would save $15.3 million for next year.
- Trade
Kirk Hinrich somewhere for a second round pick – Plenty of teams in the
league need reliable back-up point guards. Hinrich has the added bonus of
playoff experience.
The Bulls are a notoriously cheap organization, so
we expect Boozer to stay in uniform for the rest of the year (Chicago would
still have to pay him money if they amnesty him), but a Hinrich trade makes so
much sense it hurts. Chicago would be able to add to its draft pick stash. They
have two valuable assets in the form of protected picks from Sacramento and
Charlotte.
20. Sacramento Kings
15-28, 14th in Western Conference
Good News = DeMarcus Cousins has morphed into the
best low-post scorer in the league, and Rudy Gay rediscovered his shooting
stroke after being traded from Toronto.
Bad News = Both of those players got hurt in the same
game this past Wednesday.
What They Should Do = The Kings made one of the
stranger moves of the season when they acquired Gay, but at least his play has
built a sense of hope for the future. Sacramento should lose as many games as
possible down the stretch, because if their pick falls out of the top-12 this
year, it will be shipped to Chicago. A lottery pick added to the duo of Cousins
and Gay could be the start of something big. Like Atlanta, the Kings have
plenty of useful players that contending teams would be willing to trade second
round picks for. We’d love to see Jimmer Fredette end up somewhere where he can
get the chance to bomb threes at will.
22. Charlotte Bobcats
19-27, 8th in Eastern Conference
Good News = Somehow, they are eighth in the East.
Also, they are changing their name to the Hornets next year, which is fucking
awesome.
Bad News = If they continue to play at their current
level of competence, there’s a strong possibility their first round pick will
be shipped to the Bulls.
What They Should Do = Charlotte is another relatively
surprising team that has taken steps this season. Al Jefferson was a great
signing, as he’s the first legitimate post scorer the Bobcats have ever had.
Both Cleveland and New York will likely pass Charlotte in the standings, so we
forecast that they should hang on to their first round pick. The Bobcats also
will fetch an additional first rounder from Detroit if the pick ends up outside
the top-8 (most lottery projections have it landing at 10 right now). Ben Gordon
has a ridiculous $13.2 million expiring deal that should be used to net the
Bobcats some assets before the trade deadline.
23. Detroit Pistons
17-27, 9th in Eastern Conference
Good News = Andre Drummond is legit.
Bad News = The Josh Smith signing has been a
disaster.
What They Should Do = Let’s burn the damn
forest down. For one, the Pistons need to fire Joe Dumars. Sure he was a Hall
of Fame player back in the day, and built the 2004 NBA Champions, but it’s been
all down hill since. Second, the front line of Drummond-Smith-Monroe needs to
be broken up. There was a time when three huge dudes could dominate in the NBA,
but in a day where floor spacing is so important, but unless one of them can
shoot, that can’t happen anymore. Monroe is the most tradeable asset, as his $4
million rookie deal is up after the season. Monroe should fetch a fair amount
on the trade market, as there isn’t many opportunities to pick up young,
inexpensive seven-footers.
25. Orlando Magic
12-33, 14th in Eastern Conference
Good News = Victor Oladipo is a stat-stuffer who
looks like he could eventually develop into a top-3 player on contending club.
Bad News = Jameer Nelson has somehow been their
starting point guard for like eight years.
What They Should Do = Of all these shitty teams, you
could make a strong case that Orlando has the best long-term outlook. They
drafted the guy that in retrospect should’ve been the first overall pick in
last year’s draft. Tobias Harris has missed a bunch of time, which means they
lost even more games. Due to the struggles of both Denver and the Knicks,
Orlando is currently in position to net a second lottery pick in the 2014 draft
(the Knicks should get their act together and get out of the lottery, but you
never know). Their own pick should end up solidly in the top 5, which means
they’ll end up with a future franchise player regardless of how the draft plays
out in front of them. The Magic could be back in the playoff picture as early
as next year if things break right.
26. Los Angeles Lakers
16-29, 13th in Western Conference
Good News = Pau Gasol has rebuilt the majority of his
trade value, giving the Lakers arguably the most valuable trade chip on the
market.
Bad News = Kobe Bryant continues to miss games, which
is a damn shame for everyone.
What They Should Do = It sounds that the folks
running the Lakers have finally realized this team is going no where, as rumors
about Pau Gasol being shopped have picked up. Gasol is the rare combination of
all-star caliber center paired with a mammoth $18.3 million expiring contract.
A wide array of teams should be calling the Lakers about Gasol in the interest
of contending, saving money, or doing both at the same time.
27. Boston Celtics
15-31, 12th in Eastern Conference
Good News = Rajon Rondo is back, Brad Stevens is a
hell of a coach, and the team is still losing. Also, they’ve acquired six
additional first round picks over the next five years.
Bad News = They might not have enough ping
pong balls when May rolls around.
What They Should Do = Just lose baby!
Short term, it sucks watching a team lose, but in Boston’s case, it’s the
absolute right thing to do. If the draft lottery was to happen today, the
Celtics would have the fourth most ping pong balls, which means they wouldn’t
pick any lower than seventh. To put it in simple terms, they would definitely
get a possible franchise player. I would not advise a trade of Rajon Rondo, as
he isn’t good enough to single-handedly lift Boston into playoff contention,
but he’s capable enough to be one of your best three players on a championship
team. Furthermore, he’s relatively inexpensive. Danny Ainge should only trade
Rondo if he’s also unloading Gerald Wallace’s atrocious contract with it. Kris
Humphries has put up an 18.9 PER so far, and would add quality big-man minutes
to a contender. He also has the benefit of an expiring contract. It would be
foolish not to trade him. Other guys that I would consider moving would be Jeff
Green (better suited as the top scoring option off the bench than a lead-dog
role), Brandon Bass (a lesser version of Humphries, with the plus of playoff
experience) and Avery Bradley (I don’t see him developing into a franchise
player, but he could give quality defensive minutes to a contender).
28. Philadelphia 76ers
14-31, 13th in Eastern Conference
Good News = Michael Carter-Williams will be a legit
NBA point guard for the foreseeable future, and the Pelicans pick will
definitely end up in the lottery.
Bad News = They’ve won more games already than many
experts predicted they would win the entire year.
What They Should Do = If I could have my choice of
which team to become the GM for, it would be the 76ers. There’s a realistic
possibility that they could have four lottery picks out of back-to-back drafts
starting for them next season. Nerlens Noel will be held out of games this
year, but should develop into a strong defensive presence once healthy. We
already discussed Williams, who has exceeded all expectations in his first year
in the league. They currently would have the third most ping-pong balls if the
draft lottery were to be held today, which means their own pick wouldn’t fall
lower than sixth (meaning worst case scenario, they are getting Julius Randle
or one of the elite foreign dudes), and unless New Orleans ends up with a top-5
pick, they’ll get another selection right around the ten spot. To ensure more
ping-pong balls, I would trade Spencer Hawes (a stretch big who I’d love to see
in Oklahoma City, but he could contribute anywhere), Evan Turner (not
efficient, but can carry a team on some nights. His expiring contract would
make some sense for Memphis to acquire), and Thaddeus Young (reasonably priced,
and can fit as a small-ball 5 if necessary).
29. Utah Jazz
15-29, 15th in Western Conference
Good News = Trey Burke looks like a long-term starter
in the NBA, and they are by far the worst team in the most difficult
conference.
Bad News = Enes Kanter has mostly looked like a
stiff.
What They Should Do = The lowest ranked
West team, Utah’s winning percentage should drop as the season goes along (the
last quarter of the year is heavier with conference play). I would move Gordon
Hayward out of town to ensure having as shitty a team as humanly possible.
30. Milwaukee Bucks
8-36, 15th in Eastern Conference
Good News = They won’t have double digit wins until
February, and the Greek Freak can ball.
Bad News = Milwaukee’s owner actually wanted this
roster to contend for a playoff spot.
What Should They Do = We wrote that it was
a strange roster before the season, and they haven’t disappointed. Buck’s coach
Larry Drew yanks everyone’s minutes around on a nightly basis, which in a case
of incompetence paying off, has led to Milwaukee having a commanding lead in
the race for the first pick. There are players with value here, so anything
they can do to accumulate draft picks and losses should be exercised. Caron
Butler always seems to be overrated for his playoff experience, so it’s
reasonable to think he could net them a second rounder.
